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Panauti: Ganesh Dahal sat on the debris of his collapsed house in Nayagaun, Panauti-2, speechless and in tears. After a while, he managed to ask through his grief, “Where will we go now?”

The 2015 earthquakes had already damaged Dahal’s house. He had somehow rebuilt it using government aid and loans. But the late September’s floods and landslides did not spare even that. Worse still, the landslide claimed the lives of his two-month-old granddaughter Prinsa and daughter-in-law Gopini. With earthquakes and now landslides repeatedly destroying his home and family, Dahal wonders if they need to abandon their village entirely. 

“Both my sons are insisting that we should leave this place and move elsewhere,” Dahal told ApEx. “But where else can we go? How will we survive?”

A village in mourning

Located southeast of Kathmandu, Nayagaun in Panauti-2 is in deep mourning. Dozens of houses have collapsed, many are cracked and residents have been forced to seek shelter with relatives or in rented rooms.  

Rain started falling on the night of Sept 26 and continued relentlessly for three days. Muddy water began flowing in streams and rivulets. On the morning of Sept 28, landslides began occurring in multiple locations across Nayagaun, swallowing homes and livestock. Twenty people lost their lives to landslides and floods in the Panauti Municipality alone. Locals now refer to September 28 as ‘the black day’. 

Ram Sharan Bhandari, the mayor of Panauti Municipality, said nearly 500 houses were completely destroyed. Over 2,000 livestock were buried. 

After the big loss of life and property, the government has declared this area a disaster-hit zone. The Panauti Municipality has appealed for support to rehabilitate displaced families and reconstruct damaged infrastructure.

Living in terror

Panauti-2 is where the Roshi River originates. The ward, with a population of about 4,500, now looks like ruins in many areas. Houses in upper areas are either collapsed or cracked. The ground has deep fissures. Those still living in cracked houses are in constant fear.

The landslides and floods destroyed homes and agricultural fields of many villagers, damaged the BP Highway, and completely destroyed 60 houses in Nayagaun alone. Ward-2 of Panauti Municipality is among the most affected areas.

“There isn’t a single settlement untouched by landslides. All villagers are affected. Houses are at risk and uninhabitable,” says Ward Chairperson of Panauti-2 Purushottam Adhikari. “Even houses that survived the floods and landslides are damaged,” Adhikari, 60, said. “In my lifetime, I had never witnessed such intense and continuous rainfall before this.”

While the 2015 earthquakes had devastated Nayagaun in Panauti-2, it had not caused ground fissures even though houses fell. The landslides, however, have left land deeply cracked. Dozens of landslides have blocked roads. Water pipes are broken, leaving the settlement without drinking water. Families who lost loved ones are in mourning. Some lost their cattle sheds. 

According to Ward Chairperson Adhikari, three people from the ward died after being buried by landslides. Thirty-five goats, nine buffaloes and seven cows were buried. “The landslide buried the livestock along with their sheds. We still haven’t been able to retrieve them,” said Adhikari. 

Suman Acharya, 29, recounts that terrifying morning. “When we woke up, the landslide had already taken away our courtyard. We all hurried to safety. I was carrying my 20-day-old son,” Acharya said as his voice choked. “Shortly after we left, another landslide swept our house. If we had delayed even a little, we would have all been buried together.”

The young want to leave

After houses and land developed cracks, young people are urging their parents to leave the village. However, elderly residents are reluctant to immediately abandon their ancestral land. For villagers whose main occupation is agriculture, staying in Nayagaun is no longer feasible. But questions like “Where to go?” and “What to do?” leave them paralyzed with indecision.

Those affected by floods and landslides want to relocate, but they face difficult questions: “How long can we stay in rented rooms? We don’t have land elsewhere to build houses. We can’t afford to buy land and build new houses. What should we do now?”

Ward Chairperson Adhikari led initial rescue efforts after the floods and landslides. Immediate arrangements were made for food and bedding. Locals recall how he went door-to-door carrying noodles and beaten rice, clearing landslide-blocked roads along the way. “We asked for help from acquaintances and  social workers. We distributed solar lights worth Rs 300,000 to villagers living in darkness. Despite limited resources, we distributed immediate relief including food,” said Adhikari. “The flood and landslide victims are demanding relocation to an integrated settlement. We’re hoping for support from provincial and federal governments for sustainable rehabilitation. Villagers cannot live safely in their homes anymore.”

The government has issued the Disaster Victim Rescue and Relief (Seventh Amendment) Standards, 2020 for the rescue and relief of disaster victims. The standards state: “The federal, provincial and local levels must make necessary arrangements for the study, research, planning and programming, budget and resource management to identify settlements at risk and implement appropriate measures such as settlement protection and relocation. Programs must be implemented to reduce the risk to such settlements.”

Crushers, quarries blamed

The Roshi River area is dotted with unregulated stone quarries and crusher industries. Before the disaster, excavators and large trucks operated freely throughout the river area. The noise of dozers and tipper trucks operating at night made it difficult for residents to sleep.

Dust and soil from the quarries, which were dumped into the river, were gradually filling the river up. Continuous rainfall changed the course of the Roshi River, causing it to enter settlements. Additionally, experts note that unplanned road expansion also contributed to triggering landslides.

Mayor Bhandari said excessive rainfall combined with stone quarries and crusher industries wreaked havoc on the settlements. Lawmaker Gokul Baskota also pointed to reckless stone quarrying and crusher operations as the main factors behind the need to relocate entire settlements.

Locals agree with Baskota's assessment. They are frustrated with the stone quarries and crusher industries run by influential individuals. Victims complain that they have been displaced due to the unrestricted operation of crusher industries and stone quarries.

“There is a stone quarry below Nayagaun. There also are crusher industries. The machines operating in the crusher industries have shaken the ground,” Baskota said. “Permission should never have been given to operate crusher industries. They are the main factor in destroying the settlement. We shouldn’t be tempted by revenue. Mining and water cannot coexist. We must protect water resources.”

Challenges in relocation

A month and a half ago, no one had imagined that they would have to abandon their homeland. Now, Nayagaun residents are ready to leave immediately if integrated settlements become available.

The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority has said that it was developing procedures for rehabilitating those displaced by floods and landslides. As per preliminary assessments, nearly 200 families from Wards 1 and 2 of Panauti Municipality need relocation. Ward-2 alone has decided to allocate a budget of Rs 2.2m for disaster response.

“No concrete conclusions have been reached yet about how to proceed with the relocation process. There is still uncertainty. No government-owned land has been found here so far,” said ward chair Adhikari. “The local government alone cannot handle this. Provincial and federal governments must also show concern and interest. They must help.”

Lawmaker Baskota also said that the state must provide land for those who have lost their homes and property. “The government must be accountable to citizens. The displaced must be relocated to safe settlements,” he said. “We need to find public land. Arrangements should be made within the same ward if possible, or in a convenient ward with integrated settlement planning. It should allow people to continue their traditional occupations.”

A flash flood and mudslide struck Thame village in Khumbu Pasang Lhamu Rural Municipality of Solukhumbu district on August 16. The villagers had not anticipated such a disaster. In an instant, the flash flood transformed Thame village into barren land.

For Tasi Lhamu Sherpa, Vice-chairperson of Khumbu Pasanglhamu Rural Municipality, the sudden event still feels like a dream. “We are vulnerable to climate-induced risks,” he said, adding, “People here are still worried about the possibility of avalanches.”

The disaster was triggered by continuous rainfall across multiple areas, including the Kathmandu Valley, from Sept 26 to 28. According to data from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA), 250 people lost their lives over those three days. Additionally, 18 people went missing, at least 178 were injured, and about 6,000 private homes were damaged, as reported by NDRRMA.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development has warned that rice production will decrease due to heavy rains at the harvesting stage.

Three years ago, unseasonal floods caused paddy losses worth over Rs 8bn, according to ministry statistics.

The Melamchi Drinking Water Development Committee reported that flooding in the Melamchi and Indrawati Rivers in Sindhupalchowk, less than a week after the monsoon onset three years ago, caused significant damage to the project. As a result, preparations are being made to relocate the Melamchi project’s ‘Herdbox’ to a safer site.

After a nearly three-decade wait, Kathmandu residents’ hopes of accessing Melamchi drinking water were shattered by the flood. The project now operates only in the winter, closing each rainy season due to flood risks.

This year alone, 495 people have died, 66 are missing, and 522 have been injured due to monsoon-related disasters, according to NDRRMA.

Such climate-change-related risks are becoming increasingly common.

The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has begun in Baku, Azerbaijan, and will run until Nov 22. Nepal’s President Ramchandra Paudel, leading the Nepali delegation, will address the global summit.

According to the President’s Secretariat, he will emphasize the urgent need for mountain and environmental protection in meetings with heads of state and senior officials from over 192 countries.

Sindhu Prasad Dhungana, Chief of the Climate Change Management Division under the Ministry of Forest and Environment, noted that examples of climate-induced disasters, including the Thame glacial outburst, will be presented at COP29.

“We will advocate for access to climate finance to address loss and damage from climate impacts,” he said. Other key issues include international climate finance access, capacity building, and technology support for Nepal’s second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and National Adaptation Plan (NAP).

The economic toll from climate-related events has increased significantly. “We face disastrous events from glacial melt, snow, and landslides,” Dhungana noted. “We will request adequate funding from nations responsible for major emissions.”

Kamal Raj Joshi, Director General of the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, warned that 47 major glacial lakes in Nepal are at risk of outburst, which could result in significant human and economic losses. “Twenty-five of the most vulnerable glacial lakes are in China, 21 are in Nepal, and one is in India,” he said, stressing the need for greater investment to reduce these risks.

Climate expert Manjeet Dhakal stated that showcasing these climate risks at COP29 would support Nepal’s case for international assistance.

New research by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) indicates that climate change could reduce GDP in developing Asia and the Pacific by 17 percent by 2070. According to a study by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), the Hindu Kush Himalayan region is experiencing glacier melt at a rate three times the global average, with glacier melting increasing by 65 percent between 2011 and 2020.

Developing countries like Nepal are preparing to pressure the global community to mitigate climate change impacts in mountainous regions. The Nepali delegation at COP29 is focusing on six priority areas to combat climate risks and advance national interests.

The Ministry of Forest and Environment has prepared six thematic papers on climate finance, loss and damage, carbon trading, emissions measurement, mountain issues, technology, capacity building, climate adaptation, and inclusion.

Joint-Secretary Buddhi Poudel stated, “We have prepared Nepal’s national position paper, covering topics such as climate adaptation, climate finance, agriculture and food systems, health and climate, energy transition, water and climate action, and nature for climate.”

There is a push for effective implementation of the Climate Loss and Damage Fund established at COP28 in Dubai, UAE, last year.

Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s upcoming visit to China in the first week of December marks a notable departure from the Nepali tradition of newly appointed prime ministers prioritizing India for their first international visit. In his previous terms, Oli adhered to this unspoken convention, but this time, India has not extended an invitation despite his four months in office, signaling what some interpret as a shift in India’s approach to Nepal.

Oli’s visit is generating significant attention both domestically and internationally, largely due to his track record of signing strategic agreements with China during his past tenure. This will be his third official visit to China as Nepal’s prime minister; he previously visited in 2016 and 2018. Notably, during his premiership, Chinese President Xi Jinping also made a landmark visit to Nepal in 2019, the first by a Chinese leader in over two decades.

In 2016, as Nepal was recovering from months-long economic blockade imposed by India, Oli signed a Transit and Transport Agreement with China, granting Nepal access to Chinese ports for essential imports and reducing Nepal’s reliance on India. The agreement also marked a major shift in the age-old Nepal-India relations. This agreement was formalized in 2019, further strengthening bilateral ties between Nepal and China. 

Although high-level exchanges between Nepal and China are not new, Oli’s upcoming visit is under heightened scrutiny.

One of the major focuses of this visit is China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with which China has long urged Nepal to make concrete progress. Discussions are ongoing about a BRI implementation plan—a topic broached but left unresolved during former Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s visit to Beijing. Nepal is also expected to request debt relief on a Chinese loan for Pokhara International Airport, potentially in exchange for BRI commitments. India and Western countries have expressed implicit concerns, warning Nepal of potential debt risks and corruption associated with the BRI. While Nepal signed the BRI framework in 2017, specific project implementation has stalled due to Nepal’s reservations and external pressures.

Oli’s visit also highlights Nepal’s complex diplomatic balancing act amid growing international interest in its relations with China. India and Western nations are increasingly wary of Chinese influence in South Asia, including in Nepal, and are closely monitoring this visit. Within Nepal’s ruling coalition, there is a disagreement over engagement with China; the Nepali Congress is cautious about progressing with the BRI, whereas Oli’s party, the CPN-UML, advocates for advancement. Oli has sought to maintain coalition harmony by consulting coalition leaders, including Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba, as they work to finalize the agenda.

A few days earlier, UML and NC held a meeting to discuss Oli’s planned China visit. The two parties agreed that Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba would work on the agenda of the visit after consultations with NC leaders. The meeting between UML and NC indicates that Prime Minister Oli wants to deal with China without upsetting his coalition partner.

Over the past few years, mainly after Xi Jinping’s Nepal visit in 2019, bilateral cooperation between two countries is ever expanding. Along with continuous development partnership, two countries are cooperating in the new areas. Another vivid change in China’s engagement in Nepal is through its Communist Party of China. Over the past few years, CPC has been engaging with Nepal’s major parties, particularly focusing on communist parties. Senior leaders of CPC continuously visit Nepal and China is also inviting Nepal’s political parties from center to local levels. Similarly, China also organizes sessions with leaders of Nepal’s major parties to inform about the decisions taken by CPC and Chinese government.

In the third week of Oct 2024, Chen Gang, Secretary of China’s Qinghai Province, led a delegation visiting Nepal with two major objectives, first organizing an interaction program with Nepal’s political parties and another to meet Nepal’s political parties. The delegation shared the decisions made by the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee which has taken some important decisions in the areas of opening up after 1978. This is just an example CPC often organizes such programs in Kathmandu and Beijing. In January this year, Sun Haiyan, Vice minister of the international Liaison Department of CPC, conducted a high-level discussion with the leaders of parties represented in Nepal’s Parliament. In the program, she made a remark that some forces are trying to spoil Nepal-China relations so Nepal’s political parties should be cautious of it.

Since President Xi’s visit in 2019, China’s presence in Nepal has expanded beyond government-to-government partnerships, notably through the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) directly engaging with Nepal’s political landscape. Dozens of delegations mainly from three communist parties—CPN-UML, CPN (Maoist Center) and CPN (Unified Center)—have visited China to participate in various programs. Leaders from NC, Rastriya Swatantra Party and other fringe parties have also visited China over the years, but not quite as often as the communist parties.

Senior CPC leaders have also frequently visited Nepal, fostering ties primarily with Nepal’s communist parties and facilitating interactions that include briefings on CPC policies. In October 2024, Chen Gang, the CPC Secretary of China’s Qinghai Province, led a delegation to discuss recent CPC decisions and further bilateral cooperation, underscoring this growing political engagement.

CPC is mainly engaging with Nepal’s communist parties, often advising them to unite and form one powerful communist force. In August this year, when Nepal faced unprecedented floods and landslides, it was the CPC and not the Chinese government that rushed to provide relief to the disaster survivors. The CPC channelized the aid through Nepal’s major political parties. 

There is no doubt that China’s influence in Nepal is increasing at different levels. The rising presence of Chinese NGOs, which were virtually absent a decade ago, is one example. Organizations such as the China Foundation for Rural Development (CFRD) now actively participate in health, education, agriculture, and disaster relief in Nepal, often collaborating with UN agencies on initiatives like the Global Development Initiative (GDI). 

China’s influence in Nepal has grown significantly over the past decade, and Oli’s visit is expected to further deepen this relationship. Should Oli secure agreements with China that align with coalition interests, particularly with Nepali Congress’s consent, Nepal’s relations with India and the broader international community may experience further shifts.

Tens of thousands of people from around the globe will gather next week for COP29, the annual UN climate summit, in Azerbaijan's capital of Baku.

But as each year’s summit has produced its own set of promises, plans and paperwork to chase, the rationale for these discussions can be hard to follow.

Here’s what you need to know about why COP, short for Conference of the Parties, matters:

Why do we have a yearly COP?

Because climate change will affect every country, regardless of whether it contributed to the problem, it demands global solutions that can address the diversity of needs across countries.

In signing the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that launched the global negotiations, the parties that agreed to it took pains to differentiate between the wealthy nations that caused the bulk of warming and poorer countries that suffer disproportionately from it.

Put another way, the talks are framed around the idea that the countries that benefited the most from industrializing should take the most responsibility for dealing with the warming that resulted.

Addressing that imbalance has become more difficult as developing countries’ economies have grown and rich nations juggle competing costs including war.

What can a yearly summit achieve?

The summit provides a place for countries to discuss solutions, including energy policies, financing schemes or funding needs.

Nearly every summit is also attended by world leaders, giving an important signal that their countries are committed to the UNFCCC goals. The leaders' presence also helps countries hold one another accountable for past promises.

Importantly, the exercise has seen countries counting and reporting their emissions and has helped move hundreds of billions of dollars in climate aid to developing nations.

By requiring decisions by consensus, the process also ensures strong global support for agreed actions, improving the chances these actions will be implemented.

But the pace of progress has been too slow to contain the rise in global temperatures. Since COP summits began in 1995, both emissions and temperatures have continued to rise, meaning the world is on track for extreme climate change.

Proponents of the UNFCCC process say there is no alternative for negotiating major socioeconomic changes to try to limit global warming.

What will we get out of COP29?

This year’s summit is hoping for a few headline agreements: a new annual climate finance target, a deal to get multilateral carbon credit markets working, and more aid money pledged for countries already hit by costly climate disasters.

Beyond that, negotiators will continue to work on technical agreements that build on work done at previous summits.

Outside the formal COP framework, groups of countries could launch their own initiatives or pledge funding for specific projects. Companies will likely announce commercial deals related to climate action, while financiers try to raise cash for climate investments.

What is Azerbaijan’s role in COP29?

Azerbaijan held the presidency of COP29 this year when the rotating COP presidency fell to Central and Eastern Europe.

Next year Brazil will serve as Latin America’s host for COP30.

As summit host, a country works the entire year to steer pre-summit negotiations and lobby other governments for ambitious action. This gives the presidency an important part in defining the summit’s priorities.

What else happens at a COP?

Beyond the country negotiations, the COP summit offers a chance for anyone to try to draw attention - or funding—to their cause.

Hundreds of side events see activists and scientists rubbing shoulders with industry lobbyists and banking heavyweights.

Public-facing conference stages host panel discussions on topics from ocean acidification to designing carbon offset projects.

An exhibition hall, dubbed the ‘Green Zone’, features discussions led by national delegations, non-profit organizations and corporations.

While some summits have seen big organized protests, such as the rally of thousands outside of COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, the last two conferences in Egypt and the United Arab Emirates have allowed for protests only in designated, roped-off areas.

Azerbaijan, which also has banned public protests, will likely see little civic action outside of the high-security conference site.

Reuters