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Once a voice of protest through music, Balendra Shah aka ‘Balen’ is now at the center of Nepal’s political future—carrying both the hopes of a generation and the weight of rising expectations.

Shah has built an identity as an engineer, rapper, mayor and now the most preferred prime minister. Over the years, his music has resonated with the people, blending artistic expression with a clear sense of social direction. 

Through his songs, Shah questioned those in power, provoked thought, and sparked public conversation. His engineering background, meanwhile, translated into tangible work, helping rebuild earthquake-resilient homes and contributing to urban infrastructure projects. His political journey has since reinforced a simple but powerful argument: willingness to act is what politics most desperately needs. 

Most of his songs map social and political grievances onto a larger call for change, which resonates deeply among his followers. Farbin Napit, 21 says he has been a fan of Shah since grade seven. 

“Personally, I believe he was influenced by politics even before he became mayor, and I think he will do great—if not the best—for our country’s development and for raising Nepal’s profile on the world stage.”
Shah’s discography tells its own history. Sadak Balak, released 13 years ago, follows a homeless teenage boy without access to education—a portrait of Nepal’s street children struggling for survival.

Prahari—also released 13 years ago, is about the controversial moment when police cut people’s hair on the pretext of preventing crime, an action that triggered student protests in 2070 BS.

Other notable tracks include Aam Nepali Buwa, Tathya, Nepal Haseko, Balidan, Savage, Sabailai Hataar Cha, and Local Thito. A common thread runs through all of them: political awareness and a deep connection to social issues. At a 2014 rap battle with Little Grizl, Shah declared, “History is meant to be changed. Balen has not come yet!”  In hindsight, it reads less like a boast and more like a prophecy.

Those who have followed Shah reflect that sense of inevitability. Aayushi Shakya, 22 says she admires him because he is the first well-educated, well-known person to approach politics in this way.

“I started following him from his song Nepal Haseko. It was quite touching as a growing youth. I see him as a literate, self-confident person who truly believes he can change the nation. I also believe he will perform better than previous leaders.”

Samira Kiju, 20, says Shah is different from traditional politicians, which is refreshing. “I started following him more seriously around the 2022 Kathmandu mayoral election. Before that, I knew him mainly as a rapper, but his entry into politics made me pay closer attention.” She notes that Shah’s foray into politics never felt unconventional.

“He talked about social issues, corruption, and frustrations of youth through his music. So his political journey didn’t feel sudden. He always had political awareness—his journey into office made it official.”

Rajiv Maharjan, 20, has followed Shah since his mayoral campaign in Kathmandu. “As a person, I find him visionary, bold, and action-oriented. His rap showed social awareness; his political journey feels like a natural extension of that voice.” Rajiv is cautiously optimistic about Shah’s prime ministerial journey. “He has strong potential, but long-term results will matter most.” 

Krishal Maharjan, 19, echoes that admiration. Like others, he discovered Shah through music and thinks his political instincts were present long before he ran for mayor. 

A relative who knows Shah closely offered a more personal portrait. “He has a sharp memory and remembers people for a long time. He is very data-driven and tends to analyze things with a positive perspective.” The relative also pushed back against one common perception:“Some people think he is hard to approach, but he is actually open to those who reach out. He has clear plans and executes them smoothly. He speaks less, but when he does, his words are impactful.”

Political scientist Chandra Dev Bhatta says that public expectations from Shah are exceptionally high. “People are hopeful that Balen Shah will do his best for the nation. There is a strong sense of trust and optimism surrounding him.” He highlighted Shah’s working style as a defining characteristic. “Unlike many traditional political figures who tended to talk more and work less, Balen believes in working more and speaking less.”

On the question of political experience, Bhatta says while Shah may not have decades of political exposure, he has already proven himself as the mayor of Kathmandu. “He may not have long-term experience, but he has already proven himself through his work. “As an independent mayoral candidate, he not only won the election but also performed effectively.” 

Bhatta adds experience alone has never been a guarantee of a competent leader. “Willingness and intent matter as much as experience. Previous leaders may have had 50–60 years of experience, but that alone did not produce results. Shah’s commitment to change and his focus on action could be more impactful than rhetoric.”

Bhatta is also aware of the challenges that lie ahead for Shah after he has been sworn-in as the prime minister. Meeting high public expectations, ensuring good governance, managing fractious political landscape, and navigating complex geopolitical relationships will test whether Shah can prove his mettle at the national stage. 

In a historic election, the Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RSP) has decimated the established and traditional parties in the country, including the Nepali Congress (NC) led by Gagan Thapa and the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML) led by former prime minister KP Sharma Oli. The landslide victory is significant because it is the first time any party has achieved a majority since the enactment of the 2015 constitution. This represents a major change in Nepali politics, as the country has not experienced a stable government in the past two decades. No government in Nepal has completed a full five-year term. 

For the first time, Nepal may witness a majority government with a full term. The Nepal election for 275 parliamentary seats is a mix of first-past-the-post (FPTP) and proportional representation (PR) systems, which makes it more difficult to form a stable majority government, especially when thousands of candidates are in the fray. However, the RSP’s historic win is set to change that perception.

RSP’s victory: The fall of the old guard

The RSP had a meteoric rise after the popular former Kathmandu mayor Balendra (Balen) Shah became its prime ministerial candidate. However, the rise of Balen Shah and RSP is owed to the traditional politics of old leaders, most of whom served their interests. The March election became necessary after the GenZ protests toppled the government in September last year. These protests were a result of years of corruption, misgovernance, unemployment and instability in the country. 

However, the social media ban by the government acted as an immediate trigger for the protests, which were fuelled by widespread discontent among the youth regarding the government’s failure to address their concerns. The uprising was so intense that over 70 people lost their lives, and infrastructure worth Rs 84.45bn was damaged. Later, the uprising came to symbolize the clash between the old generation and the new.

The RSP promises a new and a better future for the Nepali people. It promises expansion of the economy to $100bn, per capita income of around $3000, creation of 1.2m jobs, a growth rate of seven percent, and universal healthcare insurance in five years. These are ambitious targets for a landlocked country like Nepal. Though promises like these are great for attracting the attention of voters, it remains to be seen how the RSP plans to deliver once it forms the government.

Analysts say the RSP is experiencing a groundswell, particularly because Nepali politics offers few alternatives due to repeated failures after each election, which makes the emergence of new parties like the RSP and candidates like Balen particularly significant in providing fresh perspectives and potential solutions to longstanding issues. Expectations are high that the emergence of a new legitimate government in Nepal will instill some stability in the country.

However, the stability of Nepal will depend on how well the new government implements the reforms without alienating the general people. This entails addressing the needs and concerns of various communities and promoting inclusive participation in the political process, which includes actively engaging with marginalized groups and fostering dialogue to build trust and cooperation among different sectors of society. Inclusive government is the key to a stable government. The new government will need to tackle the problems of corruption and unemployment (currently above 20 percent) and work toward effective governance.

Though the rise of RSP and Balen Shah is interlinked with the GenZ revolution and their demands for accountability in governance, there is no clear roadmap yet for how the RSP will fulfil the demands of GenZ raised in the 10-point agreement. The agreement itself was marred with controversy because not everyone supported it, and there may be significant opposition from various political factions and civil society groups that question its validity. 

Moreover, the legitimacy of the interim government and its authority to sign the agreement may come under scrutiny. There could be significant pressure on the RSP, considering it rode to the election victory on the back of the GenZ movement.

Commanding a majority government has its pitfalls. Since the March election has provided an extraordinary mandate to the RSP, the opposition does not have enough numbers to restrain or hold the new government accountable. Moreover, the latest election was fought more on individual popularity than the party ideology, which raises the possibility of high-handedness by Balen Shah, whose celebrity more or less carried the election for the RSP.

Balen has no clear political ideology or affiliations, and he joined the RSP recently. He has some administrative experience as mayor, but he got criticism for driving out vendors by using strong police tactics in Kathmandu. During his tenure, he used bulldozers to demolish illegal structures and also stopped collecting garbage from Singha Durbar to enforce cleanliness in the city of Kathmandu. Though the mandate has made it easier for Nepal to reset its traditional fractional and unstable politics, it does not provide a magic wand to its troubles. The new government not only has to work toward the aspirations of people, especially GenZ, but it will also have to bring to justice those who engaged in mindless violence, rioting and vandalism during the September protests. 

However, after the 10-point agreement legitimized the GenZ protests, it raised questions about how proactively the government would prosecute those who perpetrated the arson and violence. There are also chances of retribution against officials who fired at unarmed protesters. The general election mandate will not only have an impact on the domestic politics but may also impact Nepal’s foreign policy and geopolitics.

Nepal’s role in South Asian geopolitics: From ‘buffer state’ to ‘vibrant bridge’

The outcome of the election could reshape Nepal’s diplomacy. It is expected that new actors in power would bring new energy and ideas to advance Nepal’s foreign policy objectives. However, the advent of new political forces in power could bring unpredictability and could be cause for concern for India and China. During the September protests, Nepal’s economy took a hit, and infrastructure worth billions was damaged, which has made it expedient for the new government to receive foreign aid and development grants from its partners. 

Therefore, the RSP government will need to chart out a workable diplomatic plan to balance its relationship with India and China.

Political stability in Nepal will foster economic development, usher in social stability, and maintain law and order, which will directly impact India’s open border. India has long been Nepal’s development partner. Recognizing this, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has welcomed the victories of RSP leaders Shah and Lamichhane. Modi spoke with them over the phone and underlined India’s willingness to work with the new government. It is expected that the RSP will not lose the balancing diplomacy of Nepal in favor of one partner over another. Its election manifesto provides some insights into its foreign policy objectives. 

In its election manifesto, RSP stated that it wants to reposition Nepal from a “buffer state” to a “vibrant bridge” between India and China. However, this is not a new objective. Earlier KP Sharma Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal had the same objective of repositioning Nepal’s role, albeit without any success.  

Moreover, the old irritants between the India-Nepal relationship are likely to continue. The RSP has consistently demanded a firm Nepali stance on Kalapani, Lipulekh, and Limpiyadhura, citing historical treaties and rejecting foreign activities without consent. Their victory, which emphasizes sovereignty and anti-corruption, could intensify pressure on India for border talks amid the RSP’s push for strategic autonomy. The nationalistic posture of Balen Shah on issues such as “Greater Nepal” could be another irritant in the relationship. 

In 2023, after India installed a mural of “Akhand Bharat” (a Greater India)—encompassing many of its neighbors—Shah hung a “Greater Nepal” map in his office, including territories that once belonged to Nepal but now lie within India’s borders. His supporters hailed the move as an assertive counter to foreign dominance. 

However, as a prime minister, he will need to be more flexible while dealing with a bigger power. The confrontationist attitude might do more harm than good, as it could jeopardize crucial trade agreements and diplomatic relations that are essential for Nepal's development. Since Nepal needs India for its development and trade, the RSP government will need to reach an understanding with India without compromising Nepal’s sovereignty.

At the same time, it is hoped that the incoming government will prioritize Nepal’s relationship with India, as it remains a major source of Nepal’s imports and facilitates Nepal’s exports to other countries through its ports, airports and waterways. Unlike the 2015 blockade that raised the price of energy in Nepal, India has already built a petroleum pipeline that will provide an uninterrupted supply to its neighbors. Amid uncertainty in the oil market, India would remain the main supplier with an agreement to supply 1,000 metric tonnes of LNG in the next five years. 

Nepal-India ties will not be limited to the ‘Roti-Beti’ relationship but will be multidimensional, encompassing trade, transit, energy and investment, which will generate jobs for Nepalis. India contributes one-third of Nepal’s investment, and a stable policy would boost investor confidence. Issues like the unresolved border issue would be a major challenge, as the pressure to resolve the dispute would be high.

Unlike India, Nepal’s relationship with its northern neighbor, China, faces distinctive challenges directly linked to the recent GenZ uprising. The corruption issues surrounding Pokhara International Airport could create minor disturbances in Nepal-China relations, especially since GenZ protested against rampant corruption in the country, making this a sensitive issue for any government. 

The perception of the RSP government shielding corrupt officials raises concerns about transparency and accountability in governance. This might also bring scrutiny to other Chinese projects and the rising debt for not going ahead with the stalled projects, as Nepal needs investment to create more jobs. Balen Shah removed a Chinese infrastructure project, Damak Industrial Park in Jhapa, which was closer to India’s Siliguri corridor, from the manifesto—a cautious move, one could say, due to corruption issues and India’s concerns. China’s interest in Nepal is also shaped by concerns over Tibetan activism, Western security penetration, and Indian influence. It remains to be seen how the RSP will address these concerns.

Nonetheless, China is an important development partner of Nepal. Earlier, It  had exhibited its interest in investing in Nepal’s hydropower sector, even though it had to withdraw from the West Seti Hydropower Project due to cost escalations. 

While political turnover in Kathmandu may alter individual relationships, Beijing’s diversified channels allow it to adapt. Therefore, this does not necessarily weaken China’s influence on Nepal’s politics—it redistributes it.

Recently, the United States has emerged as another major player in Nepal. Nepal has again become strategically sensitive for Washington, DC, as the US has committed nearly $550m to the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) for spending on a power transmission network and highway projects. The US views Nepal through the lens of democratic resilience and Indo-Pacific Strategy. 

US officials have emphasized electoral integrity and institutional support while warning against predatory financing models that compromise sovereignty. The MCC commitment signals sustained US engagement even amid competing global priorities. The US offers Nepal a partnership model that reinforces rather than constrains its autonomy, giving Nepal the opportunity to continue diversifying its external partnerships. However, India and China would not want the presence of the US in Nepal. 

China has already raised concerns over the MCC funding. The RSP government in Nepal would need to do careful balancing so as not to irk its neighbors, yet it would receive meaningful aid from the US. China views the US’s investment in the MCC Project, which funds connectivity and energy projects, as a challenge to China’s BRI.

Thus, the Balen Shah-led RSP government in Nepal has got the mandate to make meaningful changes and put Nepal on the development path. It also has the chance to relook at its foreign policy, seek new development partners, and strengthen its existing partnerships. However, it has to tread cautiously and balance the relations between competing powers, such as India and China, without inviting any ire from them. 

It will be a major challenge for the incoming government to balance the interests of its neighbors and ensure that Nepal’s own developmental aspirations are not caught up in geopolitics. India needs to acknowledge the political transformation in Nepal, which promises reforms through youth participation in politics. Both India and China need a fresh approach to deal with a government that represents a new political class and a leadership that represents the youth.

The National Planning Commission (NPC) has proposed a slew of relief measures and financial incentives to support the reconstruction of private infrastructure damaged during the GenZ protests in September last year.

As per a detailed action plan prepared by the commission, all reconstruction works will be completed within three years. 

The total damage sustained by the private sector has been estimated at Rs 33.54bn. This includes losses suffered by business establishments (Rs 27.49bn) and private homes (Rs 6.05bn). An insurance claim of Rs 23bn has been made for losses incurred by the private sector.

The NPC has proposed 10 types of facilities for the private sector to assist in reconstruction or renovation of infrastructure damaged during the protests. It has suggested that local governments waive off building drawing approval fees for rebuilding damaged private structures. Likewise, it has called for property tax exemptions for up to three years for affected private businesses, depending on the extent of damage.

To ease financial stress on the private sector, the NPC has urged the government to make necessary arrangements for immediate disbursement of insurance claims for insured properties. If insurance companies are facing problems in disbursements due to liquidity shortages, the NPC has proposed the government to provide businesses short-term loans at concessional interest rates.

Similarly, NPC has urged provincial governments to waive off vehicle taxes when deregistering vehicles that were completely destroyed during the protests.

For businesses struggling with liquidity, the commission has recommended restructuring their existing loans. It has proposed allowing companies whose working capital assets were fully damaged to convert their loans into installment-based financing upon request. These restructured loans could retain their existing classification status until the end of the current fiscal timeline, providing relief from immediate financial penalties, NPC added. In addition, the NPC has called on the government to extend the deadline for loan rescheduling and restructuring for affected businesses until mid-July 2026. 

The NPC has also proposed concessional lending for reconstruction. Borrowers seeking loans to rebuild homes, commercial buildings or other physical assets could access credit at a fixed interest rate capped at a base rate plus a premium of just 0.5 percent for up to five years.

Similarly, individuals, who suffered losses while inside public offices during the protests, would be provided compensation for damage to private vehicles, mobile phones, laptops and clothing that claims of such losses are supported by official police documentation. Concerned District Administration Offices would be responsible for distributing relief amounting to up to 25 percent of the total loss to such individuals.

Meanwhile, the NPC has estimated that a total of Rs 36.3bn will be required for reconstruction and management of damages on public property across all three tiers of government. Of this, the federal government will bear the largest share at Rs 24.69bn, followed by Rs 3.74bn by provincial governments and Rs 7.86bn by local levels.

According to the NPC, Rs 19.98bn will be needed for repair and reconstruction of buildings, Rs 6.16bn for procurement of vehicles, and Rs 10.15bn for recovery of other assets.

In terms of annual spending, NPC has said that the federal government may have to allocate Rs 4.34bn in the current fiscal year and Rs 10.17bn each in the following two years. Similarly, provincial governments would require Rs 810m this year and Rs 1.46bn annually for the next two years, while local governments are projected to spend Rs 1.42bn this year and Rs 3.21bn annually over the next two years.

To arrange resources for reconstruction, the NPC has advised the government to cut small, fragmented projects that do not yield immediate results. It has also recommended fully implementing the policy of not undertaking infrastructure projects costing less than Rs 30m at the federal level. The NPC has said that such projects could be transferred to lower tiers of government through conditional grants. It has also suggested discontinuing smaller-scale programs funded through conditional grants.

Who is Balendra Shah really? In a political landscape long dominated by familiar faces and predictable ideologies, Shah stands as an anomaly. A former rapper, a structural engineer, and the mayor of Kathmandu Metropolitan City from 2022 to 2026, he now appears poised to become Nepal’s youngest prime minister.

And yet, for someone on the brink of leading a nation, remarkably little is known about what he actually believes. What is his political ideology? Does he lean toward liberal democracy, conservatism, socialism—or something entirely different? What economic path would he chart for Nepal? Where does he stand on republicanism and federalism, the very foundations of the modern Nepali state? And perhaps most crucially, how would he navigate Nepal’s delicate foreign relations in a geopolitically sensitive region?

These are not minor gaps in understanding—they are fundamental questions. And so far, they remain unanswered.

Shah’s association with the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) offers only limited clues. While the party’s manifesto hints at priorities like governance reform and anti-corruption, it remains ambiguous at best. Shah himself deepens the mystery. Once an independent candidate who rode a wave of public frustration to power, he has maintained a conspicuous distance even after rising within party ranks. He rarely attends party meetings, avoids internal processes, and remains detached from organizational routines.

His silence is not new—it is his style. Unlike traditional politicians who thrive on speeches, slogans, and public visibility, Shah operates in near-opacity. During his entire election campaign, he spoke publicly for barely 30 minutes. Since then, he has neither delivered major speeches nor granted substantive interviews. Even recent internal party events, such as lawmaker orientations and key selection meetings, have proceeded without him, often without explanation.

This absence is not accidental. It is deliberate. Those close to Shah describe a leader who believes that excessive interaction breeds complications. “He meets only essential people,” one senior RSP leader admits, hinting at a tightly controlled inner circle. Even senior party figures reportedly struggle to access him. Behind closed doors, Shah is said to be meticulously planning—reportedly focused on forming a lean, efficient cabinet.

The international community is watching closely. Nepal’s strategic position demands a leader who can articulate a coherent foreign policy. Investors, too, seek predictability in economic direction. At home, citizens deserve to know not just what Shah opposes, but what he stands for. For now, Shah remains an enigma: a leader defined as much by his silence as by his ascent.