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Spend a few minutes scrolling through social media about Nepal, and you might get an impression that the country is in a state of irreversible collapse. Political instability, corruption, the mass migration of young people, bureaucratic deadlock—these dominate the discourse. The prevailing sentiment: Nepal has no future. Everything is a disaster. But is this the ground reality, or are we trapped in a collective mood—a pervasive atmosphere of despair that shapes how we interpret events? 

Martin Heidegger, the German philosopher, argued that moods are not just personal emotions but collective states that shape how people perceive the world. A mood is not simply a fleeting feeling; it determines what appears possible or impossible. When we are in despair, everything looks hopeless. When we are optimistic, the very same circumstances can seem full of opportunity. The danger is that we mistake the mood for reality.

Right now, Nepal seems gripped by a mood of crisis. Every political event is framed as another step toward collapse. Social media amplifies outrage and negativity, reinforcing the belief that nothing works, that all roads lead to failure. 

Even during periods of political stability, opposition forces often work to undermine it. Even when policies are introduced, bureaucratic inertia slows them down. In such an atmosphere, even genuine progress can go unnoticed, overshadowed by a narrative of dysfunction. Consider the issue of youth migration. Thousands of young Nepalis leave the country every year in search of better opportunities. But this fact alone does not mean Nepal is doomed. Migration is not unique to Nepal—many countries, even developed ones, experience waves of emigration at different points in their history. What matters is how a country responds. Will Nepal create conditions that encourage its youth to return with skills, experience and investment? Or will we resign ourselves to the belief that youth migration is irreversible? 

Our answers to these questions are shaped by our collective mood. 

Political instability is an undeniable reality, but does that mean democracy itself has failed? Nepal has seen frequent changes in government, but it has also witnessed major democratic movements, an engaged electorate, and a growing demand for accountability. Corruption remains a problem, but civic activism, investigative journalism and digital transparency tools are also emerging. The bureaucratic system is slow, but Nepal’s private sector—especially entrepreneurs in digital industries—continues to innovate despite these hurdles. And yet, these positive aspects rarely define the national conversation. 

Instead, the dominant mood ensures that we focus only on dysfunction.

The possibility within breakdown

Heidegger also gives us another lens: breakdown. When things no longer function as expected, when the structures we rely on falter, we are forced to confront possibilities we may not have seen before. A system in crisis is also a system in transition. History shows that moments of instability often precede major transformations. 

Many of today’s thriving economies—South Korea, Singapore, even post-war Germany—went through prolonged periods of political and economic crisis before they found their footing. Their progress was not inevitable; it was made possible because they saw their breakdowns as moments of reevaluation rather than permanent decline. 

Nepal is at a similar juncture. The problems are real, but so are the possibilities. The same youth who are leaving for opportunities abroad are also part of a globally-connected, highly-skilled generation. The same political instability that frustrates us is also a sign of democratic contestation—a struggle to define Nepal’s future rather than resigning to a single, unchangeable fate. The same bureaucracy that slows progress also means that any reform, when it happens, has the potential to be institutionalized for the long term.

If we see only the breakdown and not the possibility within it, we risk deepening our national pessimism. And pessimism is not just an attitude; it shapes action. A country that believes it has no future acts accordingly. Talented people leave instead of staying to build. Entrepreneurs hesitate instead of investing. Policymakers, sensing the public’s resignation, prioritize short-term survival over long-term vision. But the opposite is also true. If we start recognizing the possibilities within this moment, we will act differently. We will invest, innovate, and engage. We will challenge the systems that don’t work rather than accepting them as permanent. Change begins not just with policy but with perception.

Choosing to see possibility 

The power of mood is that it determines what we believe is possible. And what we believe is possible determines what we attempt to build. If Nepal continues to see itself as a country on the brink of collapse, it will act like one. But if it sees itself as a country in transition, in the messy but necessary process of change, then it can begin to focus on solutions rather than just problems. This is not an argument for blind optimism. It is not about ignoring Nepal’s challenges or pretending that everything is fine. It is about resisting the easy, self-fulfilling trap of despair. 

Because in the end, national progress is not just about policies and politics, it is also about belief. Nepal’s greatest challenge today is not just political instability or economic hardship; it is the crisis of belief in its own potential. Just as mood shapes how we see the present, it also shapes what we believe about the future—and that belief, in turn, influences the path we take as a nation, from governance to progress and beyond.

Bamboozled by hundreds of optimisms, an era of ragtag politics is in order to vanish. The movie ‘Election’ released in 1999 carries the central theme of the colliding democratic process by exercising excess power. Director Alexander Payne collocates the story in between the complexities and challenges of democracy. Zest democracy seems more debilitating in terms of political juxtapose. The manipulation of democracy in the movie appears to be escalating beyond order being more fragile. Such a graph of muddled outlay in Nepal is measured now-a-days. 

Streamlining the central theme of multiparty democracy appears null, nowadays.  The peripheral eco-political sphere seems harsher as Hari Roka depicts in his volume Baikalpik Arthtantra, released some months ago, where development-based political agendas of classical parties remain frozen in time. A phenomenon of shamelessness exists on the surface as noticeable. Celerity over developmental amalgamation is a tongue-tipped word, but remains silent on execution. Diplomatic tendency swings to and fro scathing in the void of clear and sublime national policy. Veneration upon so-called leaders are nullified by the citizens, but still are chalking out impunity.

Youth on portrayal 

Youth political campaigners are in the basement and are paved toward the vehement and drastic move. A move in a sense that can touch the key aspiration and demand of the community as a whole. Trait theory of leadership implies that leaders are born, not made. Does this theoretical depiction lay any understanding in between the lines of Nepali uncanny politics? Assumptions over the trait theory are merely a solo manipulation, but regardless the Nepali periphery voids enhanced youth accelerating the astir Nepal polity. The cooperative scandal as faced by Rabi Lamichhane can be a prohibiting factor for Nepali youths to start a political career nowadays. 

Camila Vallejo, a female Chilean revolutionist was in peak in the period of 2011 carrying the agenda of socio-educational agendas leading to greater swing of academic institutions. It encompasses a holistic range of educational reformation, building the public funding procedure in education, eco-social reformation, greater scale investment in education that leads to comprehensive improvement over socio-political status. She is from the Communist Party of Chile and currently serves as a minister of the general secretariat of government. Her position is successful till date because of increased public funding on education, provision of free education at all levels and hiked socio-economic status. 

Ben Kirshner, professor of learning science and human development at University of Colorado Boulder in his well-known book Youth Activism in an Era of Education Inequality quest ahead for the mechanisms of youth led educational and political reformation through community involvement. Here Kirshner provides an insightful rapture of clique youth as catalyst for transformation, tendency of academic inequality paved by youths, core synergistic value and more. Here she too provides an event of Denver where youths make meaningful discourses from social media, community forums, pressure groups to enhance the political landscape ultimately leads to panacea. After a long time, this sort of web based political performance seems mushrooming in Nepal achieving noticeable results in the past elections and manifested that will affect the realpolitik in the foreseeable future. The rise of Rastriya Swatantra Party, Balen including other free fledged winner candidates are the example of this web based publicity.

Nepali parameters

Convictions over the economic reformation, distrainment on current federal system, homage to the erstwhile monarch, all the backlash are accordingly entangled within the belief of youth leaders. Disoriented Nepali citizens are surpassingly gazing at the central theme of a youth-based polity, as a parched crow expressing the sign of Are Youngish Still to Accelerate! Can youth halt this sleaze and impunity? Youth having a higher audacity and synergy may have a chance to groom. At the same time, let’s hope populist and futile can go in vain. This kind of gentle synchronization can have a chance of ascending reformation and purification over the holistic ruling system as in Mexico, the Philippines and Russia. 

None of the parameters assume that Nepali politics is dignity-based. Inner-party polarization, fragile government policy, highly volatile governments, low geo-political tensions, low diplomatic outreach, lack of trust are the preliminary tendencies that shove the state in a vicious loop of impunity. Public discontent toward this ruling system commences to proliferate in the level, i.e. monarch wave. If a limelight of youth like Balen, Rabi Lamichhane, Gagan Thapa, Yogesh Bhattarai and Ram Kumari Jhakri portray this agenda, it can carry a significant value and public sentiment starts to rise on them. So the streamliners need to address this phenomenon through a democratic public process. By this, the political graph can be normalized and boomed later.  Thus, a clear line of dignity and rationality needs to be drawn well. 

Enjoining the governing bodies yields neither result nor succession.  The impending leaders are being nurtured from the limited schools of thoughts. It's our prime option to catch their aspiration for the country to develop as a think tank but seems more sapped nowadays.  In full democratic procedure, not only a win-win policy exists. Nonetheless, we are appeasing our gen G generation as a yes-man only. It must be thought of well.

Aw-shucks scenario

Gaps over idealistic political philosophy are not so vicious as depicted, but an inner willingness and eagerness is vital for so. Egalitarian schools are free as a bird to build ideas over rationality. Rapid and soothing ideation can be factors for transformation in the global political arena. We tend to earn outcomes in no time. Does gaining a result in a short span bring a sustained idea and philosophy? Ideological streamliners put forth some tested ideas via brainstorming and figure out a solid political manifesto, which tends to be more behavioral and headline-worthy.

For a system to function, recurrent checks and balances are obligatory. When regulatory bodies intervene, this type of graphs delineate over time, something that needs to be reformed by the system as well. So a strong and meaningful systematic approach can be a philosopher’s stone for further surge.

The author is lecturer at Tribhuvan University, Sindhuli Multiple Campus

In the middle of the stunning trans-Himalayan terrain, in the Urai pass, there is a less-known but potentially vibrant route that offers a fresh perspective on the relationship between Nepal, China and India. The U-shaped edge in the northwestern corner visible in the map of Nepal, precisely in Bajhang district, above the 4,000 meters, is not so widely known and thus has become a neglected route. This ancient route near Kailash Mansarovar is rightly positioned to connect the holy sites in China and India. Its importance can be gauged by the fact that Urai pass is strategically placed to connect and rejuvenate religious-cultural significance, much deeper than the often talked-about economic integration in the region that is fragile and geopolitically sensitive.  

In his book Spy on the Roof of the World, Sydney Wignall has elaborated deeply on the use of Urai pass for a very long time by explorers, pilgrims and traders. He has also described Urai pass as a geostrategic location, given the prospect of connectivity it possesses. Even today, for those seeking spiritual visits to holy sites like Mount Kailash and Mansarovar Lake, it is considered a potential gateway that could alter how regional trade and religious tourism operate. A similar understanding has been shared by Hanna Rauber in her work Life and Trade of the Bhote Khampa in Far West Nepal, who has particularly stressed the business and livelihood aspect. 

If revisited and reopened, the Urai pass could soon provide millions of people access to spiritual, cultural and financial possibilities. It will link the Tibetan highlands and beyond with the largely populated plains of northern India, home to tens of millions of Hindus, Buddhists and Bon followers. 

Shiva Raj Malla Shrestha, in his academic article Ancient Nepal (2001), published by the Department of Archaeology, has stated that ancient works, such as Skanda Puran, also clearly depict the importance of Urai Pass, then known as Uru Parvat. It is believed that the Urus and other pre-Vedic clans took this route to facilitate interaction between humans, ideas and commodities in the Himalayas. It was formerly employed by pilgrims as well as merchants; hence, it was crucial in connecting Tibet with northern India and Western Nepal. Urai pass therefore occupies a strategic position in the Himalayas and has potential for trans-Himalayan linkages and promoting religious-cultural, and economic interactions. 

Moreover, the business prospect can be gauged from the fact that Fürer-Haimendorf, in his work Himalayan Traders: Life in Highland Nepal (1975), has portrayed Urai pass as a critical corridor in the trans-Himalayan trade network, linking the remote Bajhang district with Tibet. It facilitated the exchange of goods such as salt, wool, grains and spices between Tibet and Nepal.

Mount Kailash and Mansarovar Lake have been religiously and spiritually significant for many years, especially for Hindus, Buddhists, Jains and Bon followers. People have long endured rugged terrains and severe weather since they feel the gods reside in these holy sites. Moreover, it is widely believed that not just the destination but also the path taken by holy spirits is known to be divine and pure, thus further amplifying the value of this route. Hence, mapping this route in itself holds a greater significance. For this, all the major points in this route should be studied and the route needs to be made adventurous yet safe for pilgrims and tourists from across the globe.   

Thought to be the earthly forms of Mount Meru, a sacred mountain in Hindu, Jain and Buddhist views, many religious people visit Mount Kailash and Mansarovar.

The Urai pass might provide Indian pilgrims—especially those from the states of Delhi and Uttar Pradesh—with a fresh approach to reach these holy sites. Long ago, visits to Kailash and Mansarovar were connected with the dull and time-consuming paths through Nepal and Uttarakhand. Utilizing the Urai pass and other infrastructure enhancements, the distance could be shortened, and pilgrim access to these holy sites would be safer and more accessible.

The populous northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, home to more than 200m people, can reap benefits with the opening of this pass. The state is near the Urai Pass, which might result in a direct trade route between Tibet and the northern plains opening itself. This could lead to more business and religious travels. The turnaround of people on a large scale during Mahakumbh in Uttar Pradesh shows the unlimited possibility Urai pass might unlock for Nepal, China and India. 

For an extended period, remote Himalayan villages have been cut off from the economic centers of India and its northern neighbors. Using this pass could have more than one motive. Opening this path would mark the beginning of a fresh era of pilgrimage, and reaching their spiritual goals would be simpler and safer for people.

Opening this pass would open more opportunities for people in South Asia and beyond to collaborate and connect. 

For this, Nepal needs to take diplomatic steps to bring China and India together, excavate the route from anthropological and historical perspective, and work toward developing it as a top cultural-religious tourist destination.

King Prithvi Narayan Shah, the founder of modern Nepal, once stated, ‘Nepal is a yam between two boulders.’ This statement has become an evergreen mantra for understanding and managing Nepal’s foreign affairs. According to him, the ‘two boulders’ are India and China, and Nepal’s strategy has always been the ‘strategy for survival,’ as rightly pointed out by Leo E Rose. In realpolitik, all strategies are inherited within the geography of the country—‘Geography is the mother of strategy’. Secondly, geography stands as the most prime factor in implementing the foreign policy of any state because, in most cases, it is ‘fixed’.

Within Nepal, the sentiment of the people has always been a fear of two dynamics: the fear of foreign intervention and natural disasters/earthquakes. To elaborate further, Nepal shares close ties with India in many aspects, from geography to politics, economy, and culture. People in Nepal often find themselves in a forced position to balance ‘sovereignty and integration’ with India. At the same time, China is no longer an ‘inactive’ force in global politics and has an interest in South Asia. That ‘interest’ is sometimes ‘hard’ too. As a Nepali, the fear of being caught in the ‘radar’ of these giants, including the impact of extra-regional powers like the US, can’t be ignored. Nepal resides in an earthquake-prone area, and the foundation of every development must focus on earthquake resilience. These two ‘fears’ have been haunting Nepal and its people for quite a long time.

Power centers have a ‘natural’ interest in the country located between two giants with a comparatively low level of governance efficiency and societal development, allowing foreign aid  ‘projects’ to flourish, thanks to an unfavorable investment climate that curtails FDI in the country.

Nepal-India development partnership

Since the 1990s, India’s foreign aid to Nepal has been largely guided by the Gujral Doctrine. The doctrine states that, “India does not ask for reciprocity with its neighbors like Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, the Maldives and Sri Lanka. Instead, it gives and accommodates what can be given in good faith and trust.” However, as a neighbor, India has not effectively translated these narratives with its smaller neighbors, resulting in tensions from time to time.

When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi assumed power in 2014, he endorsed the Neighborhood First policy, making five trips to Nepal—unprecedented in the past 17 years for any Indian Prime Minister. These visits symbolized strong ties and demonstrated a commitment to collaborating with Nepal based on its development needs. Since May 2014, there have been 17 exchanges at the level of Head of State/Head of Government. Aligned with the ‘Neighborhood First’ policy, Indian Prime Minister Modi has visited Nepal five times, and the Nepali Prime Minister visited India eight times since Jan 2015.

Since 1954, after the establishment of the Indian Aid Mission in Nepal, India has supported Nepal in the development of major infrastructure projects, including the construction of Tribhuvan International Airport, water supply systems and hospitals.

After India’s economic blockade in 2015, India has been actively involved in the development of connectivity with Nepal through construction of Integrated Check Posts and Railways in Nepal. To facilitate the construction of two broad-gauge cross-border railway links—Jayanagar-Bardibas and Jogbani-Biratnagar—financial and technical assistance was provided to Nepal. Furthermore, MOUs were signed to conduct the Final Location Survey for the proposed broad-gauge line between Raxaul and Kathmandu in October 2021. The Draft Detailed Project Report resulting from this Final Location Survey was submitted to Nepal in July 2023 for review and consideration. In FY 2020-21, India provided a grant of $10.93m, a loan of $60m, and $1.38m as Technical Assistance.

India’s shift

The year 2015 marks India’s shift away from engagement in politically sensitive issues with Nepal (in most cases), replacing it with a focus on development agendas. Additionally, India’s grassroots engagement has been facilitated through High Impact Community Development Projects (HICDPs). In Jan 2024, the cap of each project under HICDPs was increased to Rs 200m. Due to India’s intense engagement in Nepal’s political affairs since 1950, HICDPs have been at the center of debate in Nepal, with concerns about India's alleged intervention at the grassroots level to promote its vested interests.

Challenges

Despite such collaborative efforts, Nepal’s trade deficit with India has been steadily increasing. In 2015-16, Nepal’s trade deficit with India stood at $3,581m, with exports amounting to $419m and imports reaching $4,000m. By 2021-22, Nepal’s exports to India had increased to $1,330m, while imports surged to $9,580m, resulting in a trade deficit of $8,250m. In May 2024/25, Nepal’s trade deficit with India reached $9.63bn. This growing trade deficit is primarily due to Nepal’s heavy reliance on Indian petroleum products, vehicles and consumer goods, while Nepal’s exports, mainly agricultural products, struggle to compete in the Indian market.

In April 2022, both countries released a ‘Joint Vision Statement on Power Sector Cooperation’ to enhance power cooperation. However, within Nepal’s political circles, many Nepalis perceive this vision statement as India’s attempt to control Nepal’s water resources while discouraging investment from other foreign players. This perception has been reinforced by India’s consistent reluctance, both in actions and statements, to purchase electricity generated through Chinese capital or contractors in Nepal.

Way forward

Concluding all of the above, India has been focusing on connectivity issues between Nepal and India after India’s economic blockade in 2015, moving away from hardcore political issues. The increasing connectivity with India will help Nepal unlock new potentials, but due to Nepal’s own internal limitations and turbulence, this has resulted in a deeper economic dependency on India rather than interdependence.

India’s involvement at the grassroots level, aimed at empowering local communities through foreign aid and accounting for 35 percent of FDI stock, undeniably highlights its significance in Nepal. Furthermore, Nepal’s geographical positioning—surrounded by India on three sides—places it in a ‘locked’ relationship with India. The interplay between geographical proximity and distinct national identity has led to numerous fluctuations in their political dynamics since the 1950s.

From Nepal’s side, there is a growing perception that India is accelerating its connectivity development projects in Nepal at a time when Nepal is overwhelmed by multiple development commitments from China. Whether India is responding only after Chinese pledges to Nepal or if this is merely a coincidence remains a matter of debate. However, the narrative in Indian media and public discourse about Nepal shifting toward a pro-China stance is a fabricated attempt to undermine bilateral relations between Nepal and India.

Summing up, Nepal and India should move ahead by taking into account each other’s security sensitivities resulting from the open border.