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The more things change, the more they remain the same.

This year’s monsoon proved more fatal than the previous year’s.

Government data don’t lie, do they?

According to the  National Disaster Risk Reduction Authority under the Ministry of Home Affairs, this year's monsoon disasters caused the highest human casualties in Nepal since 2009 and five times more than the last year’s.

This year’s monsoon, which entered earlier compared to previous years but stayed 10 days more than usual, wreaked unprecedented havoc between June 10 and October 12 in an ill-prepared and multiple disasters-prone country standing shakily on a seismic fault-zone.  

During the period, 494 people lost their lives (marking an increase of 537 per cent compared to the last year), 66 went missing and 532 suffered injuries in 2,136 monsoon-related incidents that affected 5,937 families.

This monsoon, floods affected 2,227 families in 397 locations, with 90 human casualties, 18 cases of missing and 45 injuries. In 943 reported landslides, 343 people died, 48 went missing and 276 sustained injuries, directly impacting 1,561 families, according to the authority.

Incidents of heavy rainfall recorded in 538 locations killed nine people and caused injuries to 38 others, affecting 1,814 families. 

In 258 incidents of lightning recorded during the period, 52 people died and 164 suffered injuries, affecting 335 families, per the authority’s data.

From June 14 to October 15 last year, the authority recorded 891 monsoon-related incidents that killed 92 people, 30 went missing and 168 suffered injuries.

It’s clear that stepped-up disaster preparedness could have minimized the scale of the monsoon tragedy in a country that is very susceptible to natural disasters worsened by climate change.

After the monsoon havoc, the winter has arrived, exposing a large number of survivors, including children, women and senior citizens, to multiple challenges like food shortages, lack of shelters, health and hygiene issues and disruption of education.

The onus is on government authorities at federal, provincial and local levels to act in tandem and take urgent measures to ensure the survivors’ well-being, and prove the opening line entirely wrong in this context. 

Amid multiple scientific warnings of rising temperatures, rising emission of greenhouse gasses, and the rising suffering people underwent with climate catastrophes from across the globe, the annual conclave on climate change for this year is going on in Baku, Azerbaijan. It began on November 11 and is scheduled to last through November 22.

It is the 29th Conference of Parties (COP29) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which is being attended by over 51,000 people spanning from the Heads of States and of governments, ministers, climate scientists, campaigners and youths from the countries which are parties to UNFCCC.

Both in the global leaders' addresses and agenda on the negotiation tables, the most common is the 'climate finance'. For a long, the agenda of climate finance has been surviving under different names and phrases but noticeable results are elusive in the midst of global politics of fossil fuel greeted with weather extremes of larger scale and intensity. Last year, it was made vibrant under the term, Loss and Damage Fund, and this year, the New Collective Quantified Goals (NCQG).

NCQG is said to be a more scientific goal on climate ambition and actions which is based on the needs and priorities of the developing and the least developed countries. It has the foundation on the very commitment of the developed countries to extend 100 billion US Dollars a year to the developing and poor countries, which however was claimed to have met in 2022- delaying two years of the target year. As the countries suffering worst from climate change were denouncing the delayed fulfillment of commitment, the climate debates found it vague and non-transparent, thereby setting the NCQG to be enforced from 2025 onwards.

President informs world of Nepal's suffering

President Ram Chandra Paudel, who led the Nepali delegation at COP29, also underlined the need of climate finance for Nepal in his address to the world leaders' summit in Baku.

He pointed out the urgency of the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund as well. The Himalayan nations like Nepal must be adequately compensated for climate-related loss and damage while the finance for climate action should be in grants, not in loans, according to him.

"As the snow-covered white mountains turn into black rocks, the world needs to recognize that the effects are not limited to the mountainous nations but also extend to the coastal ones," President Paudel reminded.

This statement by President Paudel has finely reminded the world to protect the Himalaya, which is the world's water tower. The threat to the world's water tower is the threat to the sea, which warrants collective actions. Injustice meted out to the Himalayan nations is the injustice catered to the coastal countries. He has voiced for the rights of entire humanity in deed.

In addition to sharing Nepal's good practices like promotion of green energy and increase in forest cover, the President made a remarkable call to the developed and industrialized countries and emerging economies which hugely involve in oil politics and politics of fossil fuel: "The vast resources spent for the arms should instead be redirected for adaptation and mitigation efforts to protect human civilization, and bequeath a habitable planet to future generations."

Like President Paudel there are dozens of other nations condemning the acts, arguing the acts as sheer assaults on nature for individual interests that prefer economic progress to social and environmental values. The island nations have similar plights.

Moreover, the data on the rising emissions clearly indicate that the world is plagued by contradictory practices with a yawning gap between the ambitions and actions. The scientific reports have claimed that our efforts are insufficient and failure to keep alive the 1.5 Degree Centigrade target, a temperature goal set by the Paris Agreement.

If the emerging economies and industrialized and developed countries have played significant parts to cross the planetary boundaries, thereby fomenting climate extremes in the world, how can the poor and LDCs take lead on climate action? It is what dozens of countries have in common to urge and demand the historically culpable parties for easy, fast, smooth and transparent flow of climate finance to the vulnerable ones.

Differing stands, politics of fossil fuel

Similarly, there are differing views between the rising powers and the already developed ones that the latter are arguing and pressing the former that they were also responsible for the increasing emission of GHGs and deserve to assist others. But the rising powers are demanding hefty finance from the developed countries for their climate actions. It was reflected in the previous negotiations as well when two phrases got centre stage: 'phase out' and 'phase down'.  The rising economies were for phasing down coal while the already developed ones were for phasing out coal. It had clearly depicted the politics of fossil fuel.

Although several countries have been adopting green energies by gradually transitioning away from use of fossil fuel, the oil politics is not dented at all. Oil is the source of income and economic growth that empowers any country to wield international influence.

Whether it is by the developed and industrialized countries or by the rising powers that are polluting the world and causing climate extremes, those suffering most are evidently the poor and LDCs. So, collaborative and collective bargaining must not wane for the rights and justice. In the multilateral conclave, it (COP29) is a testing time for the LDCs to show a negotiation process that reminds those having larger shares to climate change and persuade for compensation. However, it is not a cakewalk either to reach a global consensus amid multilateral complexity.

It is time to observe whether the COP29 will be a success to dent the politics of oil and fossil fuel and make headway to green energy and economy.

Attendance and significance

Interestingly, as in the past, the UN event is evaded by many Heads of the States. The Associated Press (AP) has written news 'Earth's biggest polluters aren't sending leaders to the UN climate talks in a year of weather extremes'. It further mentioned, "The world's biggest polluters and strongest economies- China and the United States- aren't sending their top leaders. India and Indonesia's heads of state are also not in attendance, meaning that four most populous nations with more than 42 percent of all the world's population aren't having leaders speak."

However, the agenda of climate change is raised in many other regional and international forums. The UN General Assembly and the Summit of the Future are such high-level global events where this issue is raised prominently.

"Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time, with adverse impacts that are disproportionately felt by developing countries, especially those that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. We commit to accelerate meeting our obligations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement," it is mentioned in the outcome documents of the 'Summit of The Future' held in September this year. It is named the 'Pact for the Future, Global Digital Compact and Declaration on Future Generations.'

Trump 2.0 and climate concern

As the climate negotiations continue in Baku, Donald Trump's victory in the US has alarmed the conservationists, researchers and various blocs alike that the US new government's likely withdrawal from the Paris Agreement would pose trouble in coping with climate challenges. Trump's protectionist approach with the 'Make America Great Again' slogan might have reinforced this concept.

Meanwhile, 'climate crisis' is mentioned as one of 10 implications of Trump 2.0 by Stephen M. Walt, a columnist at Foreign Policy and professor of international relations at Harvard University. He wrote: "Global progress on this issue will slow, efforts to accelerate the green transition in the United States will be reversed, and long-term efforts to secure humanity’s future will give way to short-term profits. This approach might also cede the high ground of green technologies to China and others, as well as weaken the United States’ long-term economic position, but Trump won’t care."

In Nepal's former Permanent Representative to the UN, Madhu Raman Acharya's view, Trump's comeback would not change the climate negotiation in Baku. But the policy he would take on global affairs and agendas like climate change would create a ripple. RSS

The Emperor’s New Clothes, one of the most enduring and insightful fairy tales by Danish author Hans Christian Andersen, continues to resonate deeply with readers across generations. Originally published in 1837, the story is a sharp critique of vanity, deception, and the susceptibility of those in power to flattery and self-delusion. Despite its fairy-tale origins, its themes remain startlingly relevant in the context of contemporary political systems, especially in developing countries like Nepal.

This article draws a parallel between the allegorical tale of the emperor, who is deceived into believing he is wearing invisible clothes, and the current political climate in Nepal. The emperor’s blindness to reality, his vanity, and the fear of appearing foolish that paralyzes those around him mirror the behavior of many political leaders today. Much like the emperor’s advisers, who fail to speak the truth out of fear, Nepali citizens and officials often find themselves complicit in a system where hollow promises, corruption, and the illusion of progress prevail over tangible change. Through this comparison, this article explores how the lessons from Andersen’s story illuminate the challenges facing Nepal’s political landscape, offering a critique of both leadership and governance in the country.

Once upon a time, there was a foolish emperor who was very fond of fashion. He spent a lot of money on the finest clothes and always wanted to look more beautiful than others. The people of the city were often amazed by his elaborate attire.

One day, two clever swindlers arrived in the empire. They presented themselves as weavers of extraordinary fabrics and convinced the emperor that the clothes they made were not only beautiful but also had a unique quality. They told him that only wise and competent people could see these fabrics, while fools would see nothing at all.

Surprised by this idea, the emperor invited the swindlers to his palace. They presented themselves with grand gestures, and the emperor, eager to see these magical clothes, immediately hired them, giving them as much gold and silk as they requested to weave the garments.

However, the weavers were doing nothing but pretending to weave. Every day, the emperor sent his trusted advisers to check on the progress. Even though none of them saw any clothes being made, each of them, afraid of appearing foolish, reported to the emperor that the clothes were magnificent.

One day, the emperor himself went to see the weavers at work. He too saw them working on empty looms, but fearful of being thought of as a fool or incompetent, he praised the clothes, even though there was nothing to see.

Finally, the day of the grand parade arrived. The entire city gathered to see the emperor in his new clothes. The emperor, completely naked, proudly walked through the streets, confident that he looked magnificent. The people, too, afraid of being thought fools, began praising the invisible clothes.

But then a small child shouted, “The emperor is not wearing anything! The emperor is naked!” A hush fell over the crowd, and the emperor suddenly felt exposed. By then, the swindlers had long since disappeared with their sacks of gold.

In Nepal today, the emperor is no longer an individual; the country itself walks naked. The leaders, like the weavers, are weaving empty promises and walking away with sacks of gold, just like the Rajapaksas in Sri Lanka.

The story of The Emperor’s New Clothes resonates deeply in Nepal’s current political context, reflecting the widespread disillusionment and frustration many citizens feel toward their leaders. It serves as a powerful metaphor for the current situation, where many leaders, much like the swindlers in the tale, are focused only on their own personal gain and power.

In recent years, Nepal has faced significant political turmoil. Leaders often make grand promises about development, infrastructure, and social welfare. But these promises frequently remain unfulfilled, leaving citizens with unmet expectations. Many leaders are preoccupied with staying in power and engaging in corruption, while failing to address the problems of poverty, education, and healthcare. Like the emperor in the story, many of these leaders are disconnected from the reality of ordinary citizens. Political campaigns are often presented through catchy slogans and flashy rallies. These spectacles create an illusion of progress. However, beneath the surface, the daily struggles of the people continue: rising inflation, inadequate public services, and a lack of opportunities. Citizens, like the emperor’s advisers, hesitate to tell the truth, unsure of how to challenge the narrative being presented. Awareness is beginning to rise. Recent protests and waves of civic engagement reflect an increasing demand for reality and accountability. Citizens are no longer willing to accept the status quo. They are beginning to challenge the hypocrisy of their leaders. The innocent child in the story symbolizes this awareness, encouraging the public to see through the illusion and to challenge the ongoing deception.

Building a new society

This is a crucial moment for the citizens of Nepal to become actively involved in the political process. They must demand transparency from their leaders and advocate for policies that prioritize social welfare and real development, rather than hollow promises. Grassroots movements and civil society organizations are key to this struggle, as they can force leaders to be accountable. This will help cultivate a culture of civic engagement and participation. The final lesson is clear: true leadership is about service, integrity, and accountability. It calls for leaders who are ready to face the challenges of governance and put aside their personal ambitions for the well-being of the people. By adhering to core values, civil society can build an honest political environment that addresses the needs of the public. The story of The Emperor’s New Clothes serves as a cautionary tale of foolishness, but it also carries an important message for the citizens of Nepal. It underscores the importance of vigilance, participation, and the constant pursuit of truth. Citizens are waking up to the illusions spun by their leaders. They are raising their voices for a cleaner political character and demanding standards based on higher values. By rejecting deception and embracing reality, we can build a political system that is accountable to the people. A collective effort can ultimately lead Nepal toward a stronger, more responsive system that listens to the voice of the people.

As Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli prepares for his official visit to China, political and diplomatic circles are actively debating the state of Nepal’s relationship with India. Observers suggest this move reflects Oli’s strained relationship with New Delhi and points to a shift in India’s approach toward Nepal. Many Indian politicians, bureaucrats, think tanks, and media figures often attribute fluctuations in bilateral relations to the Nepali side.

Critics in New Delhi argue that Nepali leaders often make commitments in India but fail to uphold them once back in Kathmandu. Similarly, Indian authorities frequently accuse Nepali politicians of politicizing critical bilateral issues for party or personal gain. Nepal’s internal political instability and lack of consensus on key foreign policy matters are also seen as contributing factors to the inconsistent relationship. A foreign policy expert from New Delhi remarked that India seeks a reliable partner in Kathmandu but finds it challenging to trust Nepali leaders, who are perceived as unpredictable.

While these criticisms may hold some truth, there’s also a need for reflection on India’s approach toward Nepal.

One current debate centers on Prime Minister Oli’s planned visit to China, a departure from the tradition of a new Nepali prime minister making their first official trip to India. However, this tradition has been broken before; in 2011, for instance, India did not invite then-Prime Minister Jhala Nath Khanal, and in 2008, Pushpa Kamal Dahal visited Beijing before later affirming India as his first political visit destination. India’s decision not to invite Oli this time has stirred speculation in political circles that New Delhi is dissatisfied with Nepal’s recent policy moves. At a time when economic cooperation has been progressing, India's hesitation to invite Oli risks undermining bilateral relations, potentially stirring suspicion and impacting other areas of the partnership.

Soon after the formation of the new government, there were talks about a visit from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Nepal, though this has yet to materialize. There are differing views within India’s bureaucracy and ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), leading to mixed signals that complicate Nepal’s understanding of India’s priorities. Unlike in the past, senior BJP leaders have recently engaged with Nepal’s political parties and bureaucracy, but a lack of alignment between India’s political and bureaucratic circles seems to be creating further challenges. India’s handling of issues around trade and assistance has also contributed to tension, with frequent reports of delays in the movement of goods between the two countries, fueling a trust deficit that affects the broader relationship.

There are other factors that call for reflection in both Kathmandu and New Delhi. Among Indian policymakers, there is often a perception that Nepal is solely responsible for any disturbances in bilateral relations. The case of the Eminent Persons’ Group (EPG) report illustrates this imbalance; India’s reluctance to receive the report has affected  bilateral relations, and the situation will likely remain unresolved unless addressed. Other areas, such as the difficulties faced by Nepali citizens in India and along the border, also deserve more attention from Indian policymakers.

Since 2017–18, New Delhi has maintained a policy of engaging with whichever party leads the Nepali government, a position that should continue. While India may have reservations about Nepal’s growing ties with Washington and Beijing, both sides should openly discuss India’s legitimate security concerns. But for now, a significant trust deficit persists between Nepal and India, which could potentially worsen after Oli’s China visit. Both New Delhi and Kathmandu need to actively work on bridging this gap. Although there was hope for renewed bilateral cooperation after 2014, missteps from both sides since 2016 have strained relations. Only through earnest reflection and engagement can meaningful progress be made.