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Economic growth in South Asia is estimated to have slowed slightly to 5.7 percent in 2023, yet it remains the fastest among emerging market and developing economy regions, according to a new report published by World Bank. This is largely attributed to a robust expansion in India, which accounted for more than three-fourths of the regional output in 2023. Excluding India, however, activity was more subdued.

In India, despite some slowing, a strong performance in 2023 was driven by robust public investment growth and vibrant services activity. Merchandise exports slowed due to weak external demand, but domestic demand for consumer services and exports of business services sustained India’s economic growth, according to the report.

In Bangladesh, growth is estimated to have slowed in the fiscal year 2022/23 (July 2022 to June 2023), as activity was hampered by import restrictions and rising material and energy costs, as well as mounting external and financial pressures. 

Output in Pakistan is estimated to have contracted during the FY 2022/23. Inflation remained elevated, partly reflecting large currency depreciation in early 2023. However, towards the end of 2023, Pakistan's currency exhibited signs of stabilization. 

Output in Sri Lanka is also estimated to have declined in 2023, while there has been progress in sovereign debt restructuring. In Afghanistan, despite declining food prices in 2023, poverty rates remained high, exacerbated by strong earthquakes in October 2023.

Growth in South Asia is expected to edge slightly lower to a still-robust 5.6 percent pace in 2024, before firming to 5.9 percent next year. Domestic demand, including public consumption and investment, will remain major drivers of economic growth. A pickup in external demand, albeit still subdued, is also expected to contribute to growth, the report says.  

In India, growth is expected to edge up to 6.4 percent in the FY2024/25 (April 2024 to March 2025) after softening to 6.3 percent in the FY2023/24. Investment is envisaged to decelerate marginally but remain robust, supported by higher public investment and improved corporate balance sheets.

In Bangladesh, growth is forecast to slow to 5.6 percent in the FY2023/24. Inflation is likely to remain elevated, weighing on private consumption. Import restrictions are expected to continue and impede private investment.

In contrast, growth is projected to pick up in Nepal, with monetary policy easing and the delayed effects of lifting import restrictions, the report says.

The report further says: “The outlook in Pakistan remains subdued for FY2023/24. Monetary policy is expected to remain tight to contain inflation, while fiscal policy is also set to be contractionary. The outlook in Sri Lanka remains uncertain, amid debt restructuring negotiations, particularly with private creditors.” 

Investment related to the tourism sector will support growth in the Maldives, while the commissioning of a new hydro plant in Bhutan is expected to contribute to a pickup in growth in the next fiscal year.

The World Bank has also explored some risks as well. The report says: “Risks to the forecast remain tilted to the downside, with the most pressing concerns revolving around higher energy and food prices caused by an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and adverse spillovers stemming from larger-than-expected increases in policy rates in advanced economies.” 

In addition, elevated external and fiscal financing needs, the growing frequency and severity of extreme weather events, and sharper-than-expected growth slowdown in trading partners also pose risks to the region. Heightened uncertainty around elections in 2024 in some countries is also a downside risk in the region. However, the implementation of growth-friendly policies after elections could improve growth prospects.

There was a time when agriculture was the booming sector on which the livelihood of rural people depended. Returns were promising and increasing back then. 

In recent years, however, returns from this sector have been diminishing alarmingly despite encroachment upon forests,  pastures and marginal parcels for cultivation. Unable to make a living by relying solely on the farms, rural people have begun looking for alternatives. 

With youths leaving the villages in droves for abroad, farmlands have fallen fallow, mainly in hilly areas. Instead of agriculture, remittance is fast becoming the source of  livelihood for rural people.

Food imports have gone up in recent years, thanks to an increase in uncultivated land and increased flow of remittance resulting from a growing exodus of village youths. 

This article seeks to examine the factors turning agriculture into an unattractive sector and triggering youth exodus, and prescribes ways to revive the sector. 

The farmer needs a number of things to maximize returns from agriculture in this day and age. A large parcel of land, access to bank credit, irrigation facilities, a reliable supply of fertilizers as well as electricity and an easy access to the market are some of the prerequisites. 

But these things are hard to get in our country. Farmlands are shrinking, thanks to ownership transfer from one heir to another. Even these parcels are located in remote parts where it is quite difficult to apply modern methods of cultivation for improving both production and productivity.

With the aim of helping small farmers improve farm production and productivity, the government as well as banks have launched various microfinance schemes/programs. 

But even this intervention has failed to make meaningful changes in the farmers’ lives. First and foremost, these programs/schemes have failed to bring back the farmer into farming. What’s more, most of the beneficiaries have not been able to pay interest, leave alone the principal. Contrary to Nepal’s experience, Bangladesh has been implementing a similar program/scheme with great success. 

The way out

The need of the hour is to turn farmlands lying fallow into cultivable land and make Nepal a food-sufficient country by thinking albeit differently. 

The government in particular needs to take a number of steps, to begin with. 

First of all, it needs to go for community farming. 

How to bring parcels of land lying fallow under community farming? What should be the basis for cost and benefit sharing? 

Leasing could be one of the options. A group of persons, including entrepreneurs, can lease parcels belonging to a large number of land-holders by paying them a certain amount annually. Such groups can maximize both production and productivity in those swathes by employing modern methods of farming. This will enable food-insecure communities living close by to buy locally-grown foodstuffs at reasonable rates apart from giving sustainable agricultural practices a great boost. Large farms also mean jobs for members of local communities. All in all, such farms can bring great dividends to rural Nepal. 

However, the government has to have political will to opt for community farming. First and foremost, it needs a huge budget to lease parcels of land before leasing it out to large-scale growers. Also, the government needs to invest in the development of necessary infrastructure and provide legal, technical and financial support to the growers. 

At a time when farmlands are shrinking, the government needs to move ahead with a sense of urgency if it is serious about averting a grave food crisis. 

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is keen to conclude the transitional justice process under his leadership—and on his own terms. Ever since he came to power last year, he has been striving to conclude the long drawn-out peace process. Besides trying to bring internal stakeholders on board the process, he has also been trying hard to win support of the international community.

For the same purpose, he registered an amendment bill on the transitional justice Act in Parliament, but he failed to convince the conflict victims as well as the international community. A few days back, he expedited the talks with the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML to forge a consensus on contentious issues of the transitional justice process. He even offered some upper house seats to the main opposition, UML, but to no avail. 

But the reality is that the transitional process is unlikely to move ahead under Dahal’s leadership. The government is preparing to endorse the amendment bill from Parliament from the next session, but it is unlikely due to the position taken by UML and the international community. 

It seems the UML has hardened its position regarding transitional justice. In a recent interview with ApEx, UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli said that since Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress was the prime minister during the insurgency period and Dahal was leading the armed insurgency, one cannot expect a fair and just transitional justice delivery under their leadership.  

Oli went further by stating that the Maoist party aims to conclude the process by neglecting the suffering of the war victims. The key issue, the opposition leader added, lies in addressing the grievances of the victims, ending impunity, and establishing the truth before moving towards reconciliation.

Regarding the contents of the amendment bill, there are concerns from the international community. According to the Human Rights Watch, the bill expands the list of violations covered by amnesties, including those crimes that cannot be forgiven under the international law. 

For example, the bill has proposed a two-year statute of limitations on rape complaints. It also prevents prosecution for cases of enforced disappearance, which became illegal under the Nepali law in 2018. The bill has also failed to address the issue of child soldiers. 

The Nepali Congress, a key coalition partner in the Dahal government, has not shown any eagerness to resolve the transitional justice process, nor does it have any concrete position on the contentious issues of the bill. 

It appears that the fate of the peace process hinges only on the positions taken by the UML and the Maoists.

Over the past year, Dahal has been trying to secure the support of the international community in his plan to conclude the transitional justice process. He even tried to secure the support of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, but the latter reiterated the position of the international community in his address to Nepal’s federal parliament. 

He clearly said that the UN stands ready to support the victim-centered process and its implementation in line with international standards and Nepal’s Supreme Court rulings. “Transitional justice has the greatest chance of success when it is inclusive, comprehensive, and has victims at its heart,” Guterres told the parliament.

The message of the international community is loud and clear: there should not be amnesty on serious human rights violations. But the Nepali leaders, through the use of vague and unclear language and maintaining a strong influence in the transitional justice bodies, are seeking amnesty even on serious violations.

Over the past eight years, two transitional justice mechanisms—Truth and Reconciliation Commission and Commission for Investigation of Enforced Disappearance Cases—have hardly made any progress, except for receiving around 63,000 complaints from conflict victims.  The two bodies are currently without any officer-bearers, which has severely affected their works. 

Although a parliamentary sub-committee was entrusted to hammer out the differences concerning the transitional justice process, it is clear that only the major political parties can take the final call.

Since 2006, political parties of Nepal have been using the transitional justice issue as a bargaining chip to reach to power. The Nepali Congress and CPN-UML have long been using the peace process as a leverage to negotiate power-sharing deals with the Maoists. 

This tendency shows that the basic approach of the major parties towards approaching the transitional justice process is flawed. Instead of delivering justice to the victims of conflicts, major parties are using the peace process as a tool to reach power. 

In case it fails to convince the UML, the Dahal government is planning to endorse the transitional justice amendment bill through a majority vote. But that is unlikely to bring about any positive outcome, as was evident eight years ago. 

The Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) has registered 64,000 complaints from the conflict victims to date. So far, it has managed to conduct preliminary investigations of only around 4,000 cases. Around 3,000 cases have been left in abeyance due to a lack of concrete evidence. 

Similarly, the Commission for Investigation of Enforced Disappearance Cases has received a total of 3,288 complaints. Out of these, 277 were transferred to the TRC, 292 were put on hold, 136 complaints were found to be duplicative, and 48 cases were resolved. Presently, the commission grapples with 258 active complaints.

Those who practice yoga vouch for its many benefits. They say it is good for their overall wellbeing, that it makes them calmer and agile. Though research into it is still preliminary, scientific evidence supports what yogis have been claiming for decades—yoga, if done right, can be therapeutic. 

Zahyan Shahani is a yoga instructor. She conducts yoga classes at her studio, Zenned Out, in Jhamsikhel, Lalitpur. She has been practicing yoga for almost a decade. She spoke to Babita Shrestha from ApEx about the healing benefits of yoga, how it can make you more mindful of the present, and why the early hours of the morning is considered to be the best time to practice yoga.

Are there any health benefits of regular yoga practice?

Yoga is a great way to make you more focused on whatever you’re doing. It can help you stay calm, handle stress, and even deal with mood swings. If you have health issues, it might ease the symptoms. It keeps your organs and breathing in good shape. Following the right poses and sequences can strengthen your muscles, make you more flexible, and improve how you move around. Yoga isn’t just about the body but also keeps your mind healthy, helps you sleep better, and keeps you on track.

What advice would you give to someone who wants to do yoga? 

I’d recommend finding a workout that suits you and easily fits into your daily life. Think of it as a long term fitness regime and not a temporary trend. Start with a nearby studio or instructor to understand the basics of breathing, alignment, and techniques. It’s crucial in the beginning to prevent potential long-term damage to your bones or muscles. You might not immediately have issues but they could catch up later if you’re not practicing correctly. Once you’ve grasped the fundamentals, you can practice on your own. 

Is there a good time to practice yoga?

Practicing yoga in the morning sets a positive tone for the day, helping you focus on your purpose and approach the day with the right mindset. If you’re interested in why mornings are ideal for yoga, explore ‘Brahma Muhurta’. This Sanskrit term translates to ‘time of Brahma’,’sacred time’, ‘time of divinity’ or ‘the creator’s time.’ It refers to the period just before sunrise, which is believed to be when your life force is at its strongest. Practicing yoga during this time can make a big difference in how you tackle the day.

How does yoga contribute to improving flexibility and mental well-being? 

The practice of yoga, particularly through various asanas, not only enhances physical fitness but helps you create a healthy space between joints by elongating tight muscles. It allows connection between deeper sets of muscles. If you love a slow and gentle asana practice, you can opt for Yin Yoga but if you like it to be fast paced, you can  go for Vinyasa or Power Yoga. There is Ashtanga Yoga for the ones who love routine sequences. Pranayama practice along with gentle asanas that open up the back, chest, and abdominal muscles can also help you with respiratory health.

Can you share a simple yoga tip that anyone can use in their day to day life? 

There’s this yoga move called Vajrasana. It’s one of the simplest asanas. You can do it right after you’ve had lunch or dinner. It’s not just good for improving slow digestion but also helps you if you’re dealing with issues like infection or gastroenteritis. On top of giving your digestive system a boost, it also keeps your spine healthy. As for other asanas, I recommend you do them on an empty stomach or a few hours after having food. If you’ve got any spinal health issues, it’s better to have someone guide you through yoga practice.

What are some things to keep in mind before starting a yoga session?

For anyone dealing with specific health concerns, especially back pain, my advice would be to have a chat with your yoga instructor or healthcare provider before diving into practice. Simple things like checking your daily posture and adjusting your pillow and mattress can also make a big difference. Don’t shy away from using props or any modifications because they can make bending and stretching easier.

Yoga shouldn’t cause you pain or discomfort, though it might make you a bit sore at the start. Communicate with your instructor to make any necessary adjustments in your yoga routine. When it comes to backbends, take it easy. Don’t push yourself into something that doesn’t feel right. Even a simple sequence like the Cobra pose can do more harm than good if not done correctly.

Should meditation be a part of your yoga sessions? 

If you’re new to meditation, guided sessions can be a good way to start. It’s all about being mindful, doing away with distractions, and dedicating quality time to yourself. It helps you reflect on your own thoughts. What I strongly believe is that we often have the answers within us but most of the time we just seek validation from external sources. Meditation helps release all that stress, trauma, anxiety and the constant mental turmoil between the past, present and future. If you’re just starting out, take baby steps with meditation. Even two to five minutes is a great beginning and you can build up from there.