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In the early hours of 12 July 2024, two buses tragically plunged into the Trishuli River at Simaltal, Chitwan, claiming several lives and testing Nepal’s disaster response capacity. Within hours, 52 trained members of Nepal's Armed Police Force (APF), along with more than 200 personnel deployed in rescue operations, arrived at the scene and started their work. However, in a move that has become all too familiar, the government sought international assistance, which led to the deployment of 12 personnel equipped with advanced technology like sonar systems and magnets—tools that Nepal lacked—for search operations.

The result? The APF divers, operating with limited equipment, outperformed the foreign team in terms of efficiency. The incident exposed the fact that Nepal's disaster response often relies on foreign assistance, even when capable local teams exist. This tendency raises critical questions about the country's dependency mindset and its failure to empower its own disaster management infrastructure. Despite facing frequent natural disasters—earthquakes, floods, landslides, and more—the country has yet to establish a comprehensive, well-resourced, and functional system, not just a lame institution, for disaster preparedness and response. 

International assistance can be a lifeline in moments of crisis, but relying all the time on it as the primary solution exposes Nepal's willingness and ability to protect its citizens. 

What the Simaltal incident teaches us

The Simaltal incident is a reminder of the need to shift our focus from reactive measures to proactive disaster management. If we are to quickly scan the current DRR regime in Nepal, at least five key actions can be said to be crucial to correcting our past mistakes and building a resilient DRRM system.

Firstly, let’s not just enjoy doing one after another workshops for response planning in star hotels. Instead, the Ministry of Home Affairs must invest in modern equipment and technology disaster risk reduction measures. The Study says if we invest 1 USD in preparedness, we could save 7 USD in post-disaster management. 

The APF divers’ performance highlighted their courage and commitment, but it also exposed the limitations of working without advanced equipment. The tools brought by the foreign rescue divers--such as sonar systems for underwater detection--are not luxuries but necessities for modern disaster response. Nepal must invest in acquiring and maintaining such equipment, along with training personnel in their use. 

Second, the Ministry will be at ease if it invests in empowering and equipping national forces and local governments. Nepal has competent agencies like the APF and Nepal Army, yet their potential is undermined by a lack of resources. We must provide these agencies with continuous training, better infrastructure, and the authority to act autonomously in times of disaster. Local governments, too, need to be integrated into the national disaster preparedness framework, enabling them to take the lead in disaster-prone areas.

Third, given the advancement in technology, we must invest to fully develop a robust multi-hazards early warning system. Let me bring up a case. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology had projected above-normal rainfall for this year. By mid-monsoon, 70 percent of the rainfall had already occurred and by early August an average of 90 percent rainfall had been recorded. Early warnings are even more critical, where every second matters for saving lives and properties. 

On July 6, several villages in Bagmati and Lumbi were flooded due to heavy rainfall a day before (on July 5) and Kanchanpur of Sudurpaschim recorded 624 mm of rainfall in 24 hours which is extremely heavy rainfall.  The news media had published warning news including expert interviews two days in advance citing weather forecasts, but the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) failed to act promptly. All it did was upload an awareness song on its website only by late afternoon on July 6. 

The lack of an effective early warning system has exacerbated the impact of disasters in several such cases, including during the Bhotekoshi floods in 2016 and the recent Thame floods in Solukhumbu. Nepal needs a comprehensive, tech-enabled early warning system that can provide real-time data on natural hazards such as floods and landslides. One that is now run by the Department of Hydrology and Metrology (DHM) requires a massive upgrade in its current EWS

Fourth, it is time we prioritize Disaster-Resilient Infrastructure given the losses we have already faced with the multi-million-dollar Melamchi project constructed on ADB loan. Whether it's flood barriers, earthquake-resistant buildings, or safe roadways in landslide-prone areas, investments in infrastructure can dramatically reduce both the human and economic toll of disasters. Nepal’s geography is challenging, but modern engineering can mitigate these risks if prioritized. A  flood in the Koshi basin, for example, could wipe away investment made in the Hydropower sector (some already in construction, some in pipeline) worth over US 10bn. Climate-proofing this investment makes a business case.

Finally, Nepal needs to roll up its sleeves and work hard to institutionalize preparedness and response through policy and governance. Not much progress has been made in this sector despite the substantive support from international partners. 

The unfortunate reality is that the Ministry has no information on the impact of the 36 projects implemented in areas like DRR and urban resilience with donor's money. This reflects a potential misuse of donor funds.

While Nepal has made progress in policy-making, including setting up of NDRRMA, the implementation often falls short. It lacks full authority like the one enjoyed by India’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA). This also means creating a clear chain of command during emergencies. During the Simaltal tragedy, the state was in a doldrum as the parties were busy flexing muscles to form a new government. A strong NDRRMA would have come into action irrespective of any change in the political equation in Kathmandu. 

 All these failed disaster responses that we witness every monsoon, therefore, should not be remembered only for its loss of life but as a wake-up call. If Nepal fails to learn from these repeated incidents, we risk falling into the same trap of reactionary measures that only exacerbate the loss and damage.

Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi met for 30 minutes on the sidelines of the 79th General Assembly of the United Nations in New York. This meeting from the Nepali side marks the first face-to-face interaction between the two leaders since they resumed their roles as prime ministers in their respective countries. 

For both Prime Ministers, this meeting comes at a pivotal moment. Having taken office for the fourth time, Oli has become one of Nepal's most experienced political figures, though his cumulative time as Prime Minister has only amounted to four-and-a-half years. This current tenure could extend for two more years, depending on the power-sharing agreement between Oli and Nepali Congress leader Sher Bahadur Deuba. If the agreement holds, Deuba will assume leadership in the second half of the government’s term. 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been India’s Prime Minister for a decade, serving his third consecutive term. This time, however, he leads a coalition government, which comes with certain constraints, although he remains a strong leader. Modi's leadership has significantly shaped India's foreign policy, and in recent years, his administration has adopted a more cautious, pragmatic approach to regional diplomacy. India's response to developments in neighboring countries like the Maldives, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka reflects this careful balancing act. 

Following the meeting, both leaders took to social media to express their positive impressions. Prime Minister Modi wrote on X (formerly Twitter): "India-Nepal friendship is very strong, and there is a desire to make it stronger in the future. Our discussion was on issues like energy, technology and trade." In response, Prime Minister Oli also posted on X, stating that the meeting was "fruitful" and that various aspects of bilateral relations were discussed. While the meeting was brief and took place on the sidelines of the UNGA, it nonetheless signaled an important shift in tone, where both leaders seemed keen on fostering a spirit of cooperation and mutual understanding.

Though sideline meetings like this one often do not involve detailed agenda-driven discussions, they are critical in building rapport between leaders. Exchanging warm greetings and briefly touching on key issues is often a good first step in clearing any lingering misunderstandings or tensions. The recent Oli-Modi meeting appears to have achieved this, creating a more favorable environment for addressing both long-standing and emerging issues between the two countries.

Reports suggest that the two prime ministers agreed to activate various bilateral mechanisms to resolve pending issues between Nepal and India. Currently, there are more than a dozen such mechanisms in place, many of which have been underutilized in recent years. Reinvigorating these mechanisms could provide a platform for addressing long-standing challenges such as border disputes, trade issues and developmental cooperation.

Over the past few years, Nepal’s perception of India has evolved, with India being seen more as an indispensable partner for development. The once-prevalent anti-India sentiment within Nepal has been visibly diminishing, and there is a growing recognition that cooperation with India is crucial for Nepal's economic growth and stability. This shift in public and political sentiment provides a timely opportunity for both countries to move forward on mutual concerns.

One significant aspect of the meeting, highlighted by Nepal's Foreign Minister Rana, was Oli's formal invitation for Prime Minister Modi to visit Nepal. In a departure from the traditional diplomatic practice of Nepali prime ministers visiting India first, this time Modi will visit Nepal before Oli makes a reciprocal visit to India. This move underscores the importance both countries place on revitalizing their relationship. According to Foreign Minister Rana, preparations for Modi's state visit are already underway, signaling that both sides are ready to engage in more substantive talks in the near future.

The spokesperson for Nepal's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Amrit Rai, further emphasized a positive atmosphere created through the meeting, stating that it has helped strengthen the atmosphere of trust between the two countries. According to a statement from India’s Ministry of External Affairs, Modi took the opportunity to congratulate Nepal for becoming the 101st country to join the International Solar Alliance (ISA). Modi also emphasized the importance of regional cooperation in addressing the shared challenge of climate change.

While the New York meeting was brief, it lays the groundwork for a new normal in Nepal-India relations. Moving forward, the relationship between these two neighbors will largely depend on addressing three key areas: development cooperation, resolving historical disputes, and building trust between their leadership.

Focus on development cooperation: Nepal and India need to orient their bilateral relationship on areas where both countries share common interests, particularly in development cooperation. Nepal, given its economic size and financial limitations, cannot offer direct development assistance to India. However, India's grants, loans and joint ventures are critical to Nepal's infrastructure and energy development. Hydropower projects, in particular, represent a major area of potential collaboration. The goal of generating 10,000 MW of hydropower over the next decade, along with projects like the Janakpur-Ayodhya railway, dry ports and initiatives under the High Impact Community Development Projects (HICDP) framework are all areas where India can play a transformative role.

Nepal must ensure that these development partnerships are implemented efficiently, with proper mechanisms in place to honor commitments. However, India must also refrain from using development aid as political leverage for achieving her strategic goals. Both sides must commit to a spirit of cooperation where development serves the broader goal of mutual benefit rather than political maneuvering.

Dispute resolution: There are long-standing issues between Nepal and India, many of which are legacies from the past. Issues such as border disputes and political map disagreements have been sources of tension, but these matters can be resolved only through diplomatic dialogue. Both sides must be willing to let these issues take the necessary time rather than allowing them to escalate into more serious conflicts. Nepal should also work to address India’s legitimate security concerns, while ensuring the protection of its own sovereignty and interests. Both countries should sit together with the evidence to resolve these contentious issues.  

Building trust: Perhaps the most crucial element in Nepal-India relations is the need to build a strong foundation of trust between the political leadership of both countries. Mistrust has often arisen due to the rhetoric from leaders for domestic political purposes. While political leaders may sometimes make statements to satisfy their domestic constituencies, diplomacy requires a more measured and consistent approach. Both countries need each other’s support to flourish, and this can only happen if their leaders trust and respect one another.

In their new terms, Prime Ministers Oli and Modi have taken the first step toward rebuilding this trust. If they can continue along this path, the future of Nepal-India relations will be mutually beneficial.

Views are personal

So far, 100 people have died while 67 are reported missing in the late monsoon-induced floods and landslides that took place across the country. In addition, another 100 people have been injured in the disaster.

According to the Home Ministry, 20 people died in Lalitpur, 15 in Dhading, 12 in Kathmandu, 10 in Kavre, seven in Makawanpur, six in Sindhupalchowk, five in Solukhumbu, five in Panchthar and five in Bhaktapur.

Furthermore, three people have died in Dolakha, two in Sindhuli, two in Dhankuta, two in Mahottari, one each in Ramechhap, Jhapa, Udayapur, Ilam, Saptari and Nuwakot.

According to Rishiram Tiwari, spokesperson of the Ministry of Home Affairs, a total of 9,983 security personnel have been mobilized for search and rescue in the floods and landslides-affected areas and 3,039 people have been successfully rescued so far.

Recently, traffic came to a halt along the Kanti Highway due to a landslide in Ghattepakha of Makawanpur district.

After the disaster, as always, government authorities struggled to scramble resources for clearing the debris for the resumption of traffic. 

Even the ‘minor’ incident mentioned above must have caused inconveniences to thousands of people.

Looking back, some of the other disasters this wet season were catastrophic, not only because of their intensity but also because of a lack of preparedness on the part of the government.

The Simaltal bus plunge is one such disaster. 

On July 12, two buses carrying over 60 people—Nepali and Indian nationals—plunged into a rain-swollen Trishuli river due to a landslide in Simaltal (Chitwan district) along the Narayangadh-Mugling road. Per reports, construction of a track on a fragile terrain just above the stretch had triggered the landslide that consigned the buses bound for Kathmandu from Birgunj and for Gaur from Kathmandu to the river.

After the disaster, the government mobilized security personnel for the search and rescue mission. Later on, rescuers from India also joined in the mission, deploying two large magnets to search for the buses.

But these efforts failed to locate the buses and many of the passengers. This shows our institutional capacity (or lack thereof) in dealing with disasters. Government issues orders after disasters, forms inquiry commissions, security personnel risk their lives in line for rescuing the stranded people, but they cannot do much without adequate training, tools and techniques. 

The government needs to address this gap in the long run.    

With the festive season already in the air, lakhs of people will be leaving the Kathmandu Valley for their ancestral homes via road, including the East-West Highway, amid forecasts of a rain-soaked Dashain. 

Heavy traffic during the festive season is sure to put our roads under tremendous strain. Learning lessons from the past, government authorities should take measures like constant monitoring of roads, debris removal on a regular basis, and repair, maintenance and construction of retaining walls for a safe surface travel. It is also their responsibility to make sure that passengers are not packed like sardines in a tin can and that they are not fleeced at the hands of unscrupulous transport companies.