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Sher Bahadur Deuba has not uttered a single word in public after his former coalition partner Pushpa Kamal Dahal, of CPN (Maoist Center), sidelined the Nepali Congress to the opposition in a rather humiliating fashion. Despite winning the largest number of seats in the Nov 20 parliamentary election, the NC failed to be in the government, because Deuba botched the power-sharing talks with the Maoists. He refused to leave the prime minister’s office to Dahal, and the latter went ahead and joined forces with the CPN-UML to form a coalition government. The Maoist-UML coalition has also caused the NC to lose its primacy in provinces.  Deuba has explained what to do to his party leaders for driving out Dahal and squandering the electoral victory. The NC has called a meeting of its Central Working Committee on Jan 12, where Deuba is expected to face tough questions and criticism. In the meantime, the NC president is busy working to temper the blows, perhaps even plotting a return to power. On Wednesday, he instructed his close confidant and party spokesperson, Prakash Sharan Mahat, to hold a press conference and make some remarks about the latest political scenario. Mahat predicted that the government under Prime Minister Dahal would not last long, given the contradictory ideologies and interests among the coalition partners. True, this coalition is shaky, and Dahal has yet to win the confidence vote. Is Deuba trying to snag an opportunity here, or is he just trying to assuage the anger among the party leaders and supporters? The answer could be both.  As Deuba is currently busy consulting with his core team on how to deal with the imminent intra-party dispute over the post-election fiasco, some leaders have advised him to take steps to break the Maoist-UML coalition.  Within the Deuba camp, some leaders reckon a power-sharing deal could still be worked out with Dahal. They have suggested that the NC can agree to back Dahal’s premiership for a full five-year term and get the presidential post in return.  However, a leader close to Deuba said the party president has not said anything about it.  Another leader from the Deuba camp said if the party president gives his go-ahead, they are ready to convey the message to Dahal.  However, Nain Singh Mahar, NC central working committee member, said that the ship has already sailed and that the party should contend with remaining in the opposition.  “Some leaders want to break the current ruling coalition, but I don’t think their attempts will yield any result.”  Political analyst Puranjan Acharya said as NC is in a defensive mode, Deuba could agree to offer whatever Dahal wants.  “Deuba could even try to enter a power-sharing deal with the UML,” he said. “But we must bear in mind that Deuba has become weak in terms of both health and power and his team is not capable of dealing with the Maoist and other parties.”  Ramesh Rijal, a leader close to Deuba, said while he believes that the Maoist-UML coalition is unsustainable, the NC is not in a race to dismantle it.  Maoist leader Haribol Gajurel said the first priority of Prime Minister Dahal is to secure a vote of confidence from the Parliament.  “Obviously, there are internal and external efforts to break this coalition, but I do not see such a possibility in the immediate future,” he said.  Under the power-sharing agreement, Gajurel said, the UML will get the president while the tenure of speaker will be divided into two terms between the UML and the Maoists.  “The fate of this government will depend on its delivery,” he added. “Both parties have learned a lesson after the breakup of the Nepal Communist Party (NCP). So, there is a pressure on the leadership not to repeat the same mistake.”  

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal on Tuesday issued a 30-point directive to the government secretaries, urging them to take immediate steps to improve service delivery. He warned of action against the bureaucrats if they fail to improve services within the next 30 days. Ironically, a few hours after his instruction, the Department of Passport issued a notice informing a halt in its services due to a technical glitch. This clearly shows that our government agencies are not well-equipped in terms of logistics and resources. Effective service delivery remains one of the major challenges of any government but there has been hardly any improvement. People have to bribe middlemen to get things done faster in government offices. Experts say PM Dahal’s desire to improve service delivery became evident after he came to power for a third term on Dec 25 last year. The first meeting of the Dahal Cabinet decided to take measures to improve public service delivery and strengthen his office for the same purpose. Umesh Mainali, former chairman of the Public Service Commission, says the PM should have done sufficient homework before issuing a stern directive. “Political will alone cannot yield substantial results, there are several other challenges obstructing effective service delivery for a long time,” says Mainali. “Before issuing a warning he should have studied the current status of human resources, logistics and legal hurdles of government agencies, so it is an immature step.” Failure to implement the 30-point directive will ultimately boomerang on PM Dahal, adds Mainali. Senior journalist Hari Bahadur Thapa too is not so optimistic. He says our bureaucracy is demoralized and the system is defunct, which cannot be revitalized just by issuing such directives. “Instead of promoting and transforming the government officials, parties are picking loyalist bureaucrats in lucrative positions so it is meaningless to issue such directives,” he says. Former prime minister KP Oli also tried to improve service delivery, to little avail. Before issuing the directive, PM Dahal was briefed by the government secretaries. After hearing them out, he told them while their presentations suggested everything was going well, the situation on the ground was different. Dahal then urged the government to analyze the available data and complaints from citizens in order to identify the problems and work towards solutions. The PM stressed the need to focus on issues related to public service delivery and development, as well as the management of citizens’ daily needs. He emphasized the importance of efficiently fulfilling the responsibilities given to the government secretaries, so as to improve public service delivery and address the needs of citizens. Dahal attributed the decrease in revenues to economic recession and a decrease in imports, but also expressed his concern over income tax missing the target. Pointing out many hassles and long queues that taxpayers face when trying to pay their taxes, he highlighted the need for improved service delivery. The PM also expressed dissatisfaction with a below-par development spending. “Why is development spending not picking up pace? Who is responsible? If there is a problem at the policy level, come up with reform proposals. But the weaknesses seen in implementation cannot be ignored anymore,” he said. Dahal also called on the National Planning Commission (NPC) to prepare a plan for expediting development projects. He cautioned that if funds allocated for development projects cannot be spent, they will be transferred to other projects. “Make arrangements for proper work evaluation of officials who are unable to perform revenue collection and expedite development work according to the target,” he told NPC officials. Highlighting long queues and hassles faced by citizens when trying to obtain basic services such as passports, driver's licenses, national identity cards, and payment of taxes, Dahal conceded that things have not changed much for the people despite the adoption of a federal setup. Dahal then called for a review of the causes of incomplete or abandoned development projects. He urged the senior government officials to find out whether problems with service delivery and development are related to policy, institutions, implementation, processes, or management, and to take needful action to address these issues. Additionally, Dahal called for immediate filling of approximately one-third of the vacant staff positions at the provincial and local government agencies in order to improve service delivery and development works. He also directed the Ministry of Federal Affairs and General Administration to provide human resources to these governments. Dahal also called on senior government officials to make necessary arrangements to protect citizens from cold weather, including cold waves in the Tarai region and snowfall in the Himalayas. He also called relevant ministries to ensure a steady supply of daily necessities, and to monitor and inspect the market for quality consumer goods and to stamp out practices such as profiteering and the creation of artificial scarcity. He emphasized the need to closely monitor individuals and organizations that may be prone to corruption and to hold them accountable for any wrongdoing. The PM also stressed the importance of implementing digital and faceless services, eliminating middlemen, and establishing a system for addressing and resolving complaints in areas such as public transport, license distribution, and more. These efforts should be guided by a citizen charter that includes provisions for compensation, he added. Commenting on poor public transport services in the country, Dahal said the current service is not meeting standards and that road accidents are on the rise, disproportionately affecting the lower classes of society. The Prime Minister instructed officials to properly regulate public transport in order to reduce the number of traffic accidents and improve safety for all users." In addition, Dahal encouraged government officials to prioritize their work and limit their participation in meetings, conferences, seminars, and training during office hours. He also instructed them to focus on office management, including office time compliance and staff attendance, and to improve service flow and behavior toward service-seekers. Dahal also emphasized the importance of fostering a positive environment for investment and business in the private sector, and called for development of plans to promote import substitution and increase the production of basic goods. In terms of foreign relations, Dahal emphasized the need to maintain balanced and harmonious relationships with all friendly countries based on the principle of non-alignment. He called for the mobilization of bilateral and multilateral development aid by promoting economic diplomacy. He also instructed government officials to coordinate with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs when conducting foreign diplomatic meetings, and called for the development of a code of conduct in this regard. Dahal also expressed concern over the problems faced by Nepalis working abroad and called for immediate action to address structural and policy issues that may be contributing to these problems.

In 2016, Nepal took $215m in soft loan from China’s Export-Import Bank to construct the Pokhara Regional International Airport. The following year in May, Nepal officially joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a flagship project of Chinese President Xi Jinping. Since the signing of the BRI, China has been urging Nepal to select and propose specific infrastructure projects to be developed under the program. Initially, Nepal had proposed 36 projects, but they were later scaled down to nine. Now, both countries are holding talks to finalize the BRI implementation plan, which is expected to get a boost under Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal. On Aug 10 last year, former foreign minister Narayan Khadka and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi pledged to conclude the implementation plan for BRI cooperation, and convene a meeting of the Joint Commission later that same year. However, the meeting could not take place, as Nepal was due to hold elections to the federal parliament and provincial elections on Nov 20. Prime Minister Dahal of CPN (Maoist Center) is expected to accord priority to China’s BRI projects, unlike his predecessor Sher Bahadur Deuba of Nepali Congress, which is largely seen as ‘pro-West’. While Dahal will certainly try to make some progress on the BRI projects in order to appease Beijing, he is unlikely to accept loans under the program, which comes with lots of strings attached. Even if he were to warm up to the loan agreements, the move is likely to face fierce opposition from the NC. Beijing is buoyed by Dahal’s appointment, but it will be folly of the Xi government to expect unquestionable cooperation from him. It must take a lesson from the latest controversy over Pokhara Regional International Airport. A tweet by the Chinese embassy on the eve of the airport’s inauguration had Nepal in a tizzy. The tweet mentioned that the airport construction was a flagship project of Nepal-China BRI cooperation, but officials and observers claim it is not. Foreign policy expert Rupak Sapkota insists that the airport project is not a specific project under the BRI, and that China was trying to give a message that it is a flagship project in Nepal, which is a part of a broader BRI map. “There is no clarity whether the BRI is more about the infrastructure projects or a central piece of China’s international engagement,” he says. “I think China will come up with a concrete concept this year, which happens to be the 10th anniversary of the BRI launch.” The construction of the new airport in Pokhara was contracted to China CAMC Engineering Co, and the loan for the project also came from China’s EXIM Bank. But the important thing to remember here is that the loan agreement was signed before Nepal became a part of the BRI. However, Wang Xin, charge d’affaires at the Chinese embassy in Kathmandu, has clearly said that the new airport is the bright name card of the China-Nepal joint project under the BRI. Sapkota is of the view that the governments from both countries should address the latest controversy and clear the confusion, if any. Former foreign minister Prakash Sharan Mahat, who signed the BRI agreement on behalf of the Nepal government, also says that Pokhara airport does not fall under the BRI. “The agreement for the airport construction loan was signed in 2016, whereas I signed the BRI agreement in 2017,” he says. “China has no basis to make such a claim.” This is not the first time China has claimed that cooperation under the BRI has already made progress in Nepal. Addressing a program titled Sino-Nepal BRI Framework Agreement: Shared Future for Trans-Himalayan Region on Sept 9, 2021, former Chinese ambassador Hou Yanqi had said: “A series of important consensus have been reached on the cooperation under the BRI, as well as the construction of the trans-Himalayan Multi-Dimensional Connectivity Network.” In reality, there had been no such “important consensus”. Observers say China is desperate to implement the BRI projects in Nepal, as the previous government under Deuba had made it clear that Nepal would not take any loans under the BRI. “By projecting Pokhara airport project as part of the BRI, Beijing is simply trying to show the world that the flagship program is gaining ground in Nepal,” says a senior government official. “Since the US is lumping together all its assistance programs as part of its Indo-Pacific Strategy, China is doing the same with the BRI.” Geopolitical analyst Chandra Dev Bhatta says Beijing’s rash and rushed approach will not only disrepute the BRI, but also create a trust deficit between Nepal and China. “It appears that China is using us to serve its broader strategic interests,” says Bhatta. Eight facts:

1.       Chinese President Xi Jinping launched BRI  in 2013
2.       Nepal signed agreement with China to take loan to construct Pokhara Regional International Airport in 2016
3.       Nepal agreed to become a party to BRI in 2017
4.       Second BRI summit listed Trans-Himalayan Connectivity as a key BRI project in 2019
5.       Nepal presented nine potential projects that could be developed under the BRI; it does not include Pokhara airport
6.       BRI implementation plan is currently under deliberation
7.       Pokhara airport was not a joint project of two countries; China was just a lender and Nepal have to pay
8. Nepal built this airport, just contract was awarded to Chinese company

After the power-sharing negotiation between the Nepali Congress and CPN (Maoist Center) fell through on Dec 25, Maoist leader Puspha Kamal Dahal stormed out of the prime minister’s official residence in Baluwatar. Dahal drove straight to the Balkot residence of CPN-UML Chairman KP Oli, where other Maoist leaders were already present. Within a matter of few hours the UML and Maoists worked out a power-sharing deal, thwarting NC leader Sher Bahadur Deuba’s bid to retain his prime ministerial seat. “Balkot meeting agrees to make Dahal new prime minister” read the headlines of most online news outlets. Deuba, whose parties won the most number of parliament seats (89) in the Nov 20 general election, was suddenly on the back foot. The third-placed Maoist party, which secured just 32 slots in the House of Representatives, had outmaneuvered the grand old party. The last minute Maoist-UML alliance was supported by five other fringe political parties, effectively sidelining the NC not just from the center but provinces as well. While Dahal certainly outdid Deuba, the real winner here was Oli. In recent years, the former prime minister and UML kingpin has solidified his position as one of the most powerful leaders in Nepal’s political history. He is both loved and reviled for his political cunning and nationalist attitude. In 2018, the merger between the UML and Maoist saw the formation of Nepal Communist Party (NCP), which propelled Oli’s status as one of the most powerful prime ministers as well as the leader of the largest communist party. The UML-Maoist union, however, only lasted for just a little over two years. The party broke up after Oli began to display authoritarian bent both inside the party and in government. The party division didn’t just cause intense rivalry between Oli and Dahal, but also led to the departure of former UML senior leaders Madhav Kumar Nepal and Jhala Nath Khanal, who went on to form their own party. With the party fractured, Oli found himself leading a minority government. In order to hold on to power, he made two unsuccessful attempts to dissolve the parliament, but the Supreme Court intervened and dismissed him from the prime minister’s office. The NC led five-party coalition, which included the Maoists, went on to form a government, while the UML occupied the opposition aisle. For the Nov 20 election, the NC-led coalition forged an electoral alliance against the UML, which was contesting as a single party in most of the constituencies. Despite facing the five-party alliance alone, the UML managed to win 78 seats in parliament, just 11 fewer than the NC and 46 more than the Maoists. More importantly, the NC-led alliance failed to secure enough seats to even form a simple majority. And when Deuba refused to cede the prime minister’s office to Dahal as part of the power-sharing deal, the NC-led alliance disintegrated and the UML was thrust into the role of a kingmaker. The UML is the centerpiece of the latest coalition government and Oli the show-runner. Political analyst Dambar Khatiwada says the political power of Baluwatar has shifted to Balkot. He adds Oli has already started to influence what decisions are made in Baluwatar. The rekindling of Oli-Dahal relationship, given their past feuds, was unexpected. For now, there seems to be no friction between the two. But some observers say it is just a matter of time when their egos will clash. As a prime minister, Dahal has all executive powers and wants to act independently without pressure or influence from the coalition partners, mainly the UML.  But since it was Oli who made Dahal’s prime ministerial ambition come true, Oli will obviously want to exercise or influence the executive decisions. Oli has already been appointed the head of a cross-party mechanism formed to support and guide the government. Khatiwada says Oli has already established himself as the “de facto” prime minister of the current coalition. Oli also holds the responsibility of drafting the government’s common minimum program, which means Prime Minister Dahal will have to act as per guidance of the Oli-led committee. Besides, two key coalition partners—Rastriya Swatantra Party and Rastriya Prajatantra Party—are also closer to Oli than Dahal. A senior UML leader says Oli’s decision was key to RSP leader Rabi Lamichhane’s appointment as the Home Minister. Ahead of the election, Oli was highly critical of Lamichhane, a former TV host, and his party. But now he seems to have made peace with Lamichhane.  After taking charge of the Home Ministry, Lamichhane has been meeting Oli on a regular basis. Khatiwada says this means the new home minister is more loyal to Oli than Prime Minister Dahal. As for the RPP, the UML was already close with the party and had even forged an electoral alliance in some constituencies in the Nov 20 election. The UML, RSP and RPP also have similar views on issues of federalism, citizenship, and the demands raised by Madhesi and Janajati communities. Observers say this brings the three parties closer, and, as a result, Prime Minister Dahal will come under pressure to work as per Oli’s plan. The prime minister’s work will also be made difficult by the fact that the UML candidates will be occupying the posts of the parliament speaker and the president. There is no doubt that these two key positions will be given to Oli’s close aides. This will afford Oli sufficient space to wield executive power from outside. Moreover, the UML arguably has the greatest organizational strength than any other political parties, which means Oli will have a significant influence on bureaucracy. UML leader Mahesh Basnet says the UML has a pivotal role in the Maoist-led government. He also hinted at the possible merger between the UML and Maoists under Oli’s initiative. But if past is any prologue, Oli and Dahal are sure to clash with each other, whether they are in the same party, in different ones, or for that matter, in the same coalition government.

Will Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal once again raise the issue of trilateral cooperation when he meets Indian and Chinese leaders? A three-way partnership between Nepal, India, and China is a concept that Dahal proposed after his return from China in 2012. Its objective was to promote infrastructure development in Nepal by preventing unhealthy competition between India and China.

During his second prime ministerial stint in 2016, Dahal again proposed such cooperation in his meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS outreach summit in Goa, India.

He even tried to project the meeting as a trilateral meeting. The only problem was, India was not so keen on the idea. It still is not.

The concept of a tripartite partnership is worth pursuing. Dahal’s trilateral cooperation shares the elements of the proposed “China-India Plus” strategy for South Asia.

An article published in The Global Times on Wednesday indicates that China is willing to enter a three-way partnership for regional growth.

“There is a great room for trilateral cooperation among the three countries,” says the article by Times staff writer Hu Weijia. The piece also highlights India’s growing investment interest in cross-border roads, railway and pipeline projects in Nepal.

China-India Plus cooperation is a concept first brought up during a meeting between Xi and Modi in Wuhan in April 2018. The meeting had taken place against the backdrop of a 73-day-long standoff between China and India in Doklam, an area at the tri-junction between Bhutan, India and China.

China-India Plus cooperation was once again discussed when Xi and Modi met in 2019. Besides,

Chinese officials have also been raising the issue with the Indian and Nepali sides in almost all their meetings.  In March this year, Chinese Foreign Minister Yi Wang proposed a cooperation mechanism with senior Indian officials during his India trip.

“We are willing to explore ‘China-India Plus’ cooperation in South Asia, build a positive interaction model, and achieve a higher level and a wider range of mutual benefit and win-win results,” Yi was reported as saying by Hindustan Times.  According to the paper, Yi told Indian officials that China does not seek a “unipolar Asia” and respects India’s traditional role in the region.

Pramod Jaiswal, research director at Nepal Institute for International Cooperation and Engagement, says trilateral cooperation between Nepal, India, and China is in the interest of all three countries.

“Nepal will be the largest beneficiary, as it will be connected with two of the largest economies in the world.”

But Jaiswal doubts such cooperation will take place at a time when India and China relations are strained. “He [Dahal] will have to wait for the relations between the two countries to improve before proposing his plan,” he adds.

Binod Kumar Paudel, Governance and Research Fellow at Inclusion Economics Nepal at GovLab, however, is of the view that there is no harm in asking, as Dahal had already done it in 2012 and 2016.

“India and China, the only bordering neighbors of Nepal, have progressed a lot. Nepal, on the other hand, is lagging far behind,” says Paudel. “A lot could be achieved if the three countries were to join hands for regional peace, stability, and growth.”

According to him, it was Bhasker Koirala, director of the Nepal Institute of International and Strategic Studies, who postulated the idea of cooperation between Nepal, India, and China in 2010, and Prime Minister Dahal was the one who presented it before Indian and Chinese leaders.

“We have to own the concept of trilateral cooperation because China and India are not going to treat Nepal on an equal footing in the China-India Plus plan,” says Paudel. “It is the responsibility of Prime Minister Dahal to clarify the doubts, if there are any, with China and India. He must formalize the trilateral cooperation with the two neighbors for the development and prosperity of Nepal.”

Himalayan linkages can bring prosperity to South and Central Asia: Dahal

It is noteworthy that China and India are seeking to strengthen infrastructure linkages with Nepal from different directions, and the Himalayan nation is the midpoint of infrastructure efforts by the two emerging giants in Asia, The Global Times reports.

 The Himalayan nation needs a big push in infrastructure investments to stimulate economic growth, while both China and India hope to bolster regional connectivity, the report says. If a cross-Himalayan economic corridor connecting the three economies can become a reality, it will benefit the regional economy as a whole.

Back in my first tenure as the Prime Minister of Nepal, I came up with the concept of trilateral cooperation between Nepal, China, and India. The sole aim of that trans-Himalayan cooperation is to pursue collaborative development projects, which can be beneficial for all three countries.

The prospect of trilateral cooperation has received positive responses from the leaders of the three countries. A few weeks ago in Goa, India, I got the chance to meet PM Modi Ji and President Xi Jinping in an informal setting; where I reiterated the necessity of trilateral cooperation.

And beyond the discourse of trilateral cooperation, there is a positive prospect for building broader trans-Himalayan cooperation. Cooperation, which will supplement, not supplant, the existing cooperation mechanisms—including SAARC, BIMSTEC, SCO, and other bilateral arrangements.

Cooperation will take various countries of the region on board; countries that are connected by their linkage to the Himalayas. In addition to China, Nepal, India, and various countries from South Asia in proximity can collaborate in a trans-Himalayan cooperation platform.

Such cooperation can link South Asia with Central Asia. This can open a plethora of opportunities for market expansion, job creation, and growth in trade.

The Himalayas can no more be considered barriers and obstacles. Instead, they can serve as important bridges that connect the two emerging regions of the Asian continent.

Most importantly, connectivity lies at the heart of trans-Himalayan cooperation. Given the unprecedented growth of technology and innovation, trans-Himalayan roadways and railways can no longer be confined to theory. Such infrastructure can be constructed within a few decades. Trans-Himalayan infrastructure will open up unprecedented opportunities for economic prosperity.

In the framework of broader trans-Himalayan cooperation, Nepal can serve as an important transit corridor. To realize that role for Nepal; indeed to resurrect that role of Nepal; we need to invest in infrastructure—build multilane highways and railways joining the economic giants of the north and the south.

A huge amount of capital needs to be injected to build such infrastructure. Countries of the trans-Himalayan area, especially India and China, can cooperate to invest in such projects of infrastructure buildups.

“This election is a battle between pro- and anti-constitutional forces,” declared Pushpa Kamal Dahal in the run-up to the Nov 20 polls. The Maoist leader was addressing his party supporters in Gorkha, and his “anti-constitutional” jibe was aimed at none other than CPN-UML chief KP Oli. The CPN (Maoist Center) was contesting the elections as part of the five-party alliance led by the Nepali Congress. The rationale for this alliance was to defeat UML at all cost and give continuity to the five-party coalition government.  The alliance leaders tried to whip up voters by portraying Oli as an anti-constitutional villain. Now, Dahal finds himself in an awkward position. He is the prime minister of a hodgepodge coalition government that includes the UML, as well as the right wing Rastriya Prajatantra Party. The UML, according to Dahal’s own words, is an anti-constitutional party, while the RPP is the party that champions Hindutva over secularism and still maintains pro-monarchy bent, both ideas that the Maoists detest. Political analyst Shyam Shrestha says Dahal faces a “herculean task” of managing the parties in the coalition. “These parties have conflicting interests and ideologies. There is the main coalition partner CPN-UML with its own priorities and agendas, and there is the Rastriya Prajatantra Party, which is demanding restoration of monarchy.” he says. “Managing them will certainly be difficult for Dahal.” It is not just the UML and RPP that could make Dahal’s job difficult.  The Janata Samajbadi Party led by Upendra Yadav, for instance, has reservations regarding the constitution. The Madhes-based party will likely raise the issues related to the amendment of the Citizenship Act. In such a scenario, the UML is going to object to it, pitting two coalition partners against each other. The Dahal-led seven-party coalition could also crack if the Nagarik Unmukti Party fails to secure the release of its leader Resham Chaudhary, who is serving a prison term for masterminding the 2015 Kailali massacre. It is no secret the new party joined the ruling coalition to free its jailed leader. The party was in talks with the erstwhile five-party coalition under the NC before it joined the government. Just after the election, the Sher Bahadur Deuba-led government had even issued an ordinance that would have secured Chaudhary’s release. But President Bidya Devi Bhandari refused to endorse it, citing some problematic clauses. The NUP, which is led by Chaudhary’s spouse, is certainly not going to give up on its agenda. Dahal has a challenge of not just bringing a bill to free Chaudhary and other “political prisoners” but also getting it endorsed. And then there is the Rastriya Swatantra Party, a new political party led by former firebrand TV host Rabi Lamichhane. Lamichhane, who lacks experience in statecraft, has been appointed the home minister and deputy prime minister. As the leader of a new party, there is a high chance he is going to make various populist moves, which could create friction between state agencies.  Again, it will be up to Dahal to keep his home minister in line. The ruling coalition has not yet prepared its common minimum program. A Thursday’s meeting of the coalition has decided to prepare the government’s policy within five days, and Oli has been handed the responsibility. While Dahal leads the government, it is Oli and his party that is driving it. And on several domestic and external fronts, the two leaders maintain opposite views. Above all, Prime Minister Dahal must see to it that he maintains smooth, friction-less relations with Oli.  Differences between them could break the coalition. Senior journalist Yogesh Dhakal says he cannot see how Dahal will be able to satisfy his coalition partners since they are all ideologically polar opposite of one another. “This is not your usual coalition,” he says. “The Maoist party is leading the government and the pro-monarchy RPP is supporting it. How will these two parties live together?”  

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal faces an immense foreign policy challenge of building an environment of trust with India, China and the US. The three major powers maintain strong influence in Nepal’s political, economic and military spheres, and it will be up to the new prime minister to perform a diplomatic balancing act. It’s a tall order, given the rising geopolitical tensions between US-China and India-China. It is no secret that India and China have strategic interests in Nepal. As a state located between these two rivals, it is critical for Nepal to keep its engagements with both countries balanced.  Deputy Prime Minister Narayan Kaji Shrestha intimated the same in a recent interview with Reuters where he said that the government would maintain “relationships of equi-proximity” with both neighbors. But this is easier said than done. Foreign policy analyst Geja Sharma Wagle says the new government should not tilt toward one neighbor and disregard the other. “There are a host of issues including border disputes with both countries that need addressing. For this, an environment of trust is crucial.” In Wagle’s reading, China, while extending its congratulatory message to Dahal on his appointment, has given a clear message that it wants to push the projects under Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Nepal. It’s no wonder, Beijing is upbeat about Dahal, of Maoist party, leading the government, but it is the job of the new prime minister to win the trust of India and the US as well. “Winning the confidence of the Western power in particular is one of the major challenges of the Dahal government,” says Wagle. Earlier, the CPN (Maoist Center) and CPN-UML leaders had criticized the Nepali Congress-led government for violating the long-standing foreign policy of non-alignment and becoming pro-Western. Their claim was not unfounded. Nepal-China ties did take a hit under the Deuba administration. On several occasions, the northern neighbors had openly expressed displeasure on the decisions taken by the previous government. Now, the two ruling left parties must prove that they are adherent of the non-alignment policy. Dahal takes charge at a time when some crucial issues related to the US, China and India are pending. Nepal is yet to take a concrete position on India’s military recruitment scheme called Agnipath. The status of America’s State Partnership Program (SPP) is also uncertain. It won’t be an easy job for the Dahal government to take decisions on these issues because of internal and external pressures. The election manifestos of Maoist and UML provide some hints of the new government’s foreign policy. The Maoist party has explained in detail in the foreign policy section of its election manifesto that friendly and proximate relationships will be maintained with both neighbors. The party also says that it is important for Nepal to remain free from all sorts of foreign military activities and become a zone of peace. It expressly states that Nepal will not become a part of any bilateral or multilateral military alliances. Then there are also issues pertaining to India. The manifesto talks about regulating open borders with India and reviewing or canceling the Peace and Friendship Treaty (1950), the Tripartite Agreement (1947), and other treaties related to trade and treaties with India. Similarly, UML’s election manifesto states the party will maintain an independent and balanced foreign policy with a priority on neighboring countries. It talks about the approach of “amity with all and enmity with none” in order to foster a relationship based on sovereign equality. The UML manifesto also says that the disputed territories between Nepal and India at Lipulekh, Limpiyadhura and Kalapani will be recovered, and that all treaties with India will be reviewed to protect Nepal’s welfare. It remains to be seen if the two parties will follow through on the promises they have made on their election manifestos. If they did, some of the issues such as border dispute resolution and review of past treaties could raise complexities with India. Foreign policy experts say the Dahal government must be careful not to shake the tightrope of diplomacy. Keep house in order first  Anil Sigdel, Foreign Policy Expert Nepal’s domestic politics has failed to convince external partners. Extremely personal power-centric practices by political parties have eroded Nepal’s standing in the international stage. This has adversely impacted Nepal’s growth and development. Nepal has to keep its own house in order first before going on to tackle foreign policy matters. Dahal, for his past record as a rebel, will certainly draw attention of the international community, especially to what direction he will lean in these geopolitically challenging times.  Oftentimes, his past actions seemed guided by his ideology. Issuing a support letter over Venezuela to show his anti-American stance was one such example. Right after his appointment as prime minister this time, he posted a tweet about celebrating Mao Zedong’s 130th birth anniversary. Certainly, this is a symbolic act, but it can still raise suspicion regarding his political objectives. Winning trust is the key  Chandra Dev Bhatt, foreign policy expert The biggest foreign policy challenge for this government is whether it can win the trust, not only of immediate and distant neighbors but also of the international community at large. Nepal’s economy is already feeling the heat and we need foreign investment. Therefore, the following points need to be taken into consideration. The first is that the foreign policy priority of this new government should be to maintain best relations both with India and China. No political ideology should be reflected while conducting foreign policy. A political party’s foreign policy cannot be national foreign policy. The second point is we need to bring the broader international community into confidence, as they have been our developmental partners for a long period of time. This does not mean that we need to take each and every prescription for the development and other activities they provide. We need to put national perspectives into consideration and take the factor of comparative advantage into mind. Thirdly, our relations with the West including the US should be maintained at the best level. We need to activate our economic diplomacy to attract investment and resuscitate the economy. Fourth, we must maintain friendly ties with West Asian countries, where a large number of Nepalis are working. And lastly, we should take advantage of the new geopolitics in Asia. Our foreign policy should be streamlined with other policies or vice versa, and the line ministry and its other agencies should not be politicized. If this government is a product of geopolitics, then there are always more than one actor who will try to bend it on their way. And what guarantee is there they will continue to support it. After all, there are always certain interests behind geopolitics.

Call it a political accident, a miscalculation, or a simple twist of fate, but there is no escaping the fact that this is the time of reckoning for the Nepali Congress. The party has been relegated to the opposition benches even after winning the most number of seats in the House of Representatives. The culprit here is no other than Sher Bahadur Deuba, the leader of the grand old party, who threw it all away by letting the pre-election ruling coalition break down. With only 89 seats secured in the 275-member parliament, the picture was quite clear for the NC: the party had no chance of leading the government while also holding all the important positions of president, vice president and speaker. The solution was also simple enough: work out a power-sharing deal with the CPN (Maoist Center), the key coalition partner, on those highly coveted posts. But no, Deuba refused to delay his personal ambition of becoming a prime minister for a record sixth term, instead of handing over the premiership to Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal for 2.5 years and taking over the reins for the remainder term. This was what Deuba and Dahal had agreed upon after all, but the former reneged on the deal. In the words of senior NC leader Ram Chandra Poudel, it was Deuba who betrayed Dahal. "We have nothing left now, we've lost everything," Poudel told the media on Sunday. Dahal, whose party won just 32 seats in the Nov 20 parliamentary election, had no qualms abandoning the coalition and forging an alliance with the CPN-UML led by his former rival, KP Oli. Deuba was confident that Dahal would never ally with Oli, or vice versa. This was a major miscalculation on Deuba’s part. If anyone who could have sniffed out Dahal’s agenda, it was Deuba. After all, the Dahal had broken faith with the NC and joined forces with the UML ahead of the 2017 polls. Now, Deuba’s leadership is being questioned within his party. Some leaders have even called for his resignation. “Our party president and parliamentary party leader, Sher Bahadur Deuba, should immediately resign from both positions on moral grounds,” party leader Gururaj Ghimire wrote on his Facebook. According to some NC leaders, Deuba had been taking decisions on vital issues without consulting with the party, save a few leaders from his faction. He had surrounded himself with a close group of advisors, including Purna Bahadur Khadka, Bimalendra Nidhi, Gyanendra Bahadur Karki and Prakash Sharan Mahat. These leaders allegedly offered wrong advice to Deuba, to the detriment of the party. When Dahal staked his claim to the post of prime minister after the election results, Deuba made him wait until the NC’s parliamentary party poll. And being selected as the PP leader, Deuba, on the advice of his lieutenants, tried to convince Dahal to allow him to lead the government first. It is said that Deuba had agreed to hand over the power to Dahal at a meeting that took place on Dec 17. However, Deuba later backtracked from the understanding. NC central member Nainsingh Mahar called the dissolution of the five-party coalition a “terrible mistake” by Deuba."It was necessary to continue the coalition. Our friends were deprived of the opportunity to contest the election because of this coalition. We knew the Maoists wouldn't be loyal, but we abided by the decision taken by the party leadership." Mahar wants an answer as to why the party leadership didn’t make an effort to save the coalition after the election.“Those responsible for breaking the coalition must face action,” he demanded. Deuba needs some explanation before the party's Central Working Committee and Parliamentary Party. Some leaders say the party president is not only who is at fault. They have also blamed the anti-establishment leaders including Shekhar Koirala and Gagan Kumar Thapa for putting pressure on Deuba to take an inflexible position and demand for both prime ministerial and presidential posts.