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Soon after the Nov 20 elections, there were unfounded media reports on some external forces lobbying for the appointment of former Cabinet head Khilraj Regmi as the new president.  Around the same time, the rumor mill was also throwing the names of former chief justice Kalyan Shrestha and prominent social worker Anuradha Koirala as the potential presidential candidates. Neither the media nor the public figured out which external forces, if there were any, and with what motive were trying to appoint an apolitical figure as the head of the state. The rumor mill stopped churning when CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal on Dec 25 sought CPN-UML’s support to form a new government and in return vowed to support the UML candidate in the presidential election. Ever since it has been widely accepted that the UML would once again get the country’s top position. The UML leaders are openly saying that Prime Minister Dahal has agreed to grant the presidency to their party.  But, Dahal has again cast uncertainty on the issue. On Sunday, the prime minister told a group of editors that there hasn’t been any written agreement with the UML regarding the House speaker and president’s posts. Did Dahal, in a desperate bid to lead the government, agree to offer all vital positions to the UML, without thinking of its long-term repercussions? After all, the Maoist-UML coalition was hastily formed, defying expectations of media pundits and the general public, who were certain about the continuity of the Maoist-Nepali Congress coalition. The NC, the largest party in the House of Representatives, is not in the current seven-party ruling coalition, but it has—again defying general expectations—backed the Dahal government, rendering the House without an official opposition party. Clearly, the NC leadership expects Dahal to reciprocate to its unsolicited support by offering either the presidency or speakership.  Dahal has said that the onus lies on him to bring the NC on board. But his attempt at keeping the NC happy has also created misunderstanding between the Maoists and its main coalition partner, UML. Within weeks into his premiership, Dahal has put himself in an awkward position. On Tuesday, after meeting with the newly appointed Chinese Ambassador Chen Song, Dahal reverted to his previous remarks saying that he remains committed to the agreements with UML. Later that same day, he organized an all-party meeting to give an impression to the NC that he was in favor of sharing the vital positions among the parties. Dahal is notorious for being a political flip-flopper, and he seems to be at it again.  KP Sharma Oli, the UML leader, for the time being, is maintaining his cool, for he believes that giving continuity to the current coalition best serves his party’s interests. Oli is savoring his role as the kingmaker and he has been meeting Dahal on a regular basis. At this point, the only explanation behind Dahal’s behavior is that he wants to keep the NC by his side as his safety net, in case the UML were to withdraw support to his government. That way, Dahal could work out a power-sharing deal with the NC and give continuity to the Maoist-led government. One can see that Dahal’s distrust toward Oli also stems from the way their relationship evolved between 2018 and 2021 when they were the co-chairs of the erstwhile Nepal Communist Party (NCP). The UML-Maoist merger had ended in a disaster, creating intense rivalry between the two leaders. While the Maoist and the UML have finalized the power-sharing deals in seven provinces, they are yet to decide on president, vice president and speaker. By leaning toward the NC, Prime Minister Dahal is probably trying to improve his bargaining leverage before the UML. If the UML were to get the presidency and speakership, Dahal’s party would be left with nothing once his term ends after 2.5 years and Oli takes over.  The Maoists, NC and other fringe parties know very well that if the UML got both presidency and speakership, then in 2.5 years there will be a one-party-like system. External forces are closely watching how Dahal will hash out the challenges of making appointments to these key positions. The experience of the past five years has shown that the posts of president and speaker could influence or strike down the decisions of the executive. There have been instances of external powers knocking the door of the president to fulfill their interests, if the prime minister is not cooperating. With the UML unwilling to share the two key positions, Prime Minister Dahal’s efforts to offer either presidency or speakership to the NC are likely to go to waste. He tried and failed on Wednesday to forge a consensus on the appointment of the speaker. With his feet in two boats, Dahal is trying to sail through rough political waters. It remains to be seen how far this ride will last.  

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal has won a vote of confidence from nearly every member in the 275-strong parliament. However dubious it may seem across the democratic world, Nepal now has a coalition government without any official opposition. The newly appointed prime minister from the CPN (Maoist Center) is now all set to give a full shape to his government and get into the business of governing. A committee of the seven-party ruling coalition has already prepared a policy document or the common minimum program, outlining the government’s priorities for the next five years. The document will serve as a blueprint to drive the country forward economically, socially and politically. It also includes the government’s foreign policy priorities. How Nepal deals with the external world, more specifically with India, China, and the US, will be a key determinant of its success or failure in the coming years. The common minimum program mentions the government’s foreign policy priorities in a vague way. It speaks about non-alignment approach and maintaining balanced ties, which offers no insight into how the government will go about finding the diplomatic equipoise. This issue begs clear articulation at a time when India, China and the US are trying to spread the scope of their influence in South Asia. The three countries are expecting early decisions from the new government on some of their key agendas. India wants an early decision on its Agnipath scheme concerning recruitment of Nepali as well as Indian youths in its security forces for a certain period. The previous government led by Sher Bahadur Deuba had put the issue on hold, stating that the new government would take a decision. An Indian official said the plan cannot be delayed for an indefinite period. The recruitment program by the Narendra Modi government has become a divisive topic in India as well as in Nepal, as it offers a military service period of only four years. There are concerns about the future of Agnipath retirees while some have even raised the alarm about dangers of letting military trained youths into civilian life, especially if they do not find other job opportunities. If the Nepal government opts out of Agnipath, the official said the seats reserved for Nepali would be provided to Indian nationals. With China, the new government needs to take the decision on whether or not to be part of Xi Jinping’s Global Security Initiative and Global Development Initiative. There are also the projects under the Belt and Road Initiative. Foreign policy experts consider these initiatives as China’s way of building a new world order, an antidote to the US global dominance. Chinese diplomats have already started to claim that Nepal is already part of these initiatives, even though the Nepal government has not taken any official decision. As a country sharing a border with China and India, Nepal is of strategic interest not just to Beijing and New Delhi, but also Washington. As China-US geopolitical rivalry peaks in South Asia, they are after building ally countries in the region.  Washington wants an environment conducive for the implementation of Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) projects, which has two components. The first one is the construction of a transmission line and another is an upgrade of road networks. Beijing has already raised objections to Nepal signing the compact. Protests have erupted in Nuwakot and Dang, which has alarmed the Americans. US Ambassador to Nepal Dean Thomson recently told the media that the implementation of MCC projects remains a key concern in America and they are concerned about the protests. Besides ensuring successful implementation of the MCC projects, the Dahal government must also decide on America’s State Partnership Program, which too was put on hold by the previous administration. It will be an enormous decision, with a potential to make Nepal a friend or a foe of Washington and Beijing. In his previous tenure in 2016-2017, Dahal had sent special envoys—Bimalendra Nidhi and Krishna Bahadur Mahara—to New Delhi and Beijing—signaling that he wants to maintain a balanced relationship. But he eventually ended up angering New Delhi and Washington by signing up for the BRI and deciding to hold joint military drills with China. With India, China and the US breathing down the neck to fulfill their strategic interests, it remains to be seen how the Dahal government will apply its policy of maintaining balanced ties. The common minimum program offers no clues.  

Nepal-China bilateral cooperation has gathered momentum with the easing of zero-covid policy in China. This could also be due to the fact that Nepal recently formed a new government under Pushpa Kamal Dahal of CPN (Maoist Center). From January 8, China opened its border for international travelers. With this, officials say, Nepal-China interactions, which were largely limited to virtual platforms, are all set to take place in-person. The two countries have also resumed two-way trade, but there are still some bottlenecks when it comes to export of Nepali products to China. After the outbreak of covid, air connectivity between the two countries came to a standstill, except for some cargo and special flights. Now, preparations are underway to resume the commercial flights between the two countries. Nepal’s Ambassador to China Bishnu Pukar Shrestha said starting Jan 17, direct flights Himalayan Airlines will resume direct flights from Beijing to Kathmandu. He added preparations are also on for conducting additional flights. Meanwhile, Nepal and China have also begun preparations for high-level visits in the next couple of months.  A diplomatic source told ApEx that Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is likely to visit China at the end of March to participate in the Boao Form for Asia. The newly appointed Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang has already begun diplomatic trips and he is likely to visit South Asian countries soon. The source said the Chinese foreign minister could visit Kathmandu too. A high-level Chinese delegation is also expected to visit Nepal to convey Beijing’s message to the new government. Ambassador Shrestha said efforts would be made for high-level exchange of visits in 2023. He added the two countries would resume the exchange of visits between government delegations, think-tank representatives, academicians, media persons, students and artists. Nepal and China are also preparing to resume in-person meetings of bilateral mechanisms. A Chinese team is already in Kathmandu for the feasibility study of the Kathmandu-Kerung railway.

A hung parliament with a third-placed party leading a shaky coalition, and the lawmakers of the party with the most number of seats sulking on the opposition benches. Thus convened the first session of the House of Representatives on Monday. The whole affair was unremarkable and offered little to be optimistic about—not even the address by Rabi Lamichhane, home minister and leader of Rastriya Swatantra Party, the flag bearer of independent political force, could elevate the mood. The Nov 20 parliamentary election has produced a fractured mandate, and it is up to Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of CPN (Maoist Center) to figure out the course of action while also making sure the coalition does not break. Dahal knows what he is up against. He rightly pointed out that his government would be tested and judged based on its delivery of good governance. He talked about bringing genuine change in people’s lives, but offered no prescriptions. The prime minister’s address didn’t instill hope. Perhaps, he was being honest, because it would be a folly to presume that the next five years will be stable. As part of a power-sharing deal, Dahal has agreed to cede the office of the prime minister to the CPN-UML after 2.5 years. Opposition leader Sher Bahadur Deuba’s address was dull and generic. The former prime minister appeared subdued and said that his party, Nepali Congress, would play a constructive role as an opposition. Leaders of all major political parties stuck to general political speech, covering commonplace topics, like challenges faced by the country, the need for good governance and about honoring people’s aspiration of real change. The topic of stable government remained the unaddressed elephant in the room. But plenty of inferences could be drawn. UML leader KP Oli, for instance, cautioned Prime Minister Dahal about the bumpy road ahead. In a veiled reference to the NC, he also said that breaking the current coalition would be unwise. Oli telling the parties not to engage in power game and be united for the sake of the country was him pointing at the current political mess and volatility of the coalition government—it was not an appeal. More tellingly and rather inauspiciously, the UML leader also brought up his own experience as a prime minister and his two unsuccessful attempts at dissolving the previous parliament. He not only defended his move, he also chided the parties who opposed him as regressive elements. The regressive elements Oli was talking about included his current coalition partner Maoist, the opposition NC, and UML splinter CPN (Unified Socialist). Clearly, none was pleased with Oli’s remarks, while the UML lawmakers banged their desks in approval. NC General Secretary Gagan Thapa later told the media that Oli’s claim over his move to dissolve the previous parliament could once again tear the Maoists and UML apart. Noting that the two communist forces have entered a coalition partnership without addressing the major bone of contention that broke them up last time, Thapa said that the very issue could sow division in the future. There is not much for people to hope from a divided parliament and unstable government. All in all, it’s business as usual in Nepali politics.    

Sher Bahadur Deuba has not uttered a single word in public after his former coalition partner Pushpa Kamal Dahal, of CPN (Maoist Center), sidelined the Nepali Congress to the opposition in a rather humiliating fashion. Despite winning the largest number of seats in the Nov 20 parliamentary election, the NC failed to be in the government, because Deuba botched the power-sharing talks with the Maoists. He refused to leave the prime minister’s office to Dahal, and the latter went ahead and joined forces with the CPN-UML to form a coalition government. The Maoist-UML coalition has also caused the NC to lose its primacy in provinces.  Deuba has explained what to do to his party leaders for driving out Dahal and squandering the electoral victory. The NC has called a meeting of its Central Working Committee on Jan 12, where Deuba is expected to face tough questions and criticism. In the meantime, the NC president is busy working to temper the blows, perhaps even plotting a return to power. On Wednesday, he instructed his close confidant and party spokesperson, Prakash Sharan Mahat, to hold a press conference and make some remarks about the latest political scenario. Mahat predicted that the government under Prime Minister Dahal would not last long, given the contradictory ideologies and interests among the coalition partners. True, this coalition is shaky, and Dahal has yet to win the confidence vote. Is Deuba trying to snag an opportunity here, or is he just trying to assuage the anger among the party leaders and supporters? The answer could be both.  As Deuba is currently busy consulting with his core team on how to deal with the imminent intra-party dispute over the post-election fiasco, some leaders have advised him to take steps to break the Maoist-UML coalition.  Within the Deuba camp, some leaders reckon a power-sharing deal could still be worked out with Dahal. They have suggested that the NC can agree to back Dahal’s premiership for a full five-year term and get the presidential post in return.  However, a leader close to Deuba said the party president has not said anything about it.  Another leader from the Deuba camp said if the party president gives his go-ahead, they are ready to convey the message to Dahal.  However, Nain Singh Mahar, NC central working committee member, said that the ship has already sailed and that the party should contend with remaining in the opposition.  “Some leaders want to break the current ruling coalition, but I don’t think their attempts will yield any result.”  Political analyst Puranjan Acharya said as NC is in a defensive mode, Deuba could agree to offer whatever Dahal wants.  “Deuba could even try to enter a power-sharing deal with the UML,” he said. “But we must bear in mind that Deuba has become weak in terms of both health and power and his team is not capable of dealing with the Maoist and other parties.”  Ramesh Rijal, a leader close to Deuba, said while he believes that the Maoist-UML coalition is unsustainable, the NC is not in a race to dismantle it.  Maoist leader Haribol Gajurel said the first priority of Prime Minister Dahal is to secure a vote of confidence from the Parliament.  “Obviously, there are internal and external efforts to break this coalition, but I do not see such a possibility in the immediate future,” he said.  Under the power-sharing agreement, Gajurel said, the UML will get the president while the tenure of speaker will be divided into two terms between the UML and the Maoists.  “The fate of this government will depend on its delivery,” he added. “Both parties have learned a lesson after the breakup of the Nepal Communist Party (NCP). So, there is a pressure on the leadership not to repeat the same mistake.”  

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal on Tuesday issued a 30-point directive to the government secretaries, urging them to take immediate steps to improve service delivery. He warned of action against the bureaucrats if they fail to improve services within the next 30 days. Ironically, a few hours after his instruction, the Department of Passport issued a notice informing a halt in its services due to a technical glitch. This clearly shows that our government agencies are not well-equipped in terms of logistics and resources. Effective service delivery remains one of the major challenges of any government but there has been hardly any improvement. People have to bribe middlemen to get things done faster in government offices. Experts say PM Dahal’s desire to improve service delivery became evident after he came to power for a third term on Dec 25 last year. The first meeting of the Dahal Cabinet decided to take measures to improve public service delivery and strengthen his office for the same purpose. Umesh Mainali, former chairman of the Public Service Commission, says the PM should have done sufficient homework before issuing a stern directive. “Political will alone cannot yield substantial results, there are several other challenges obstructing effective service delivery for a long time,” says Mainali. “Before issuing a warning he should have studied the current status of human resources, logistics and legal hurdles of government agencies, so it is an immature step.” Failure to implement the 30-point directive will ultimately boomerang on PM Dahal, adds Mainali. Senior journalist Hari Bahadur Thapa too is not so optimistic. He says our bureaucracy is demoralized and the system is defunct, which cannot be revitalized just by issuing such directives. “Instead of promoting and transforming the government officials, parties are picking loyalist bureaucrats in lucrative positions so it is meaningless to issue such directives,” he says. Former prime minister KP Oli also tried to improve service delivery, to little avail. Before issuing the directive, PM Dahal was briefed by the government secretaries. After hearing them out, he told them while their presentations suggested everything was going well, the situation on the ground was different. Dahal then urged the government to analyze the available data and complaints from citizens in order to identify the problems and work towards solutions. The PM stressed the need to focus on issues related to public service delivery and development, as well as the management of citizens’ daily needs. He emphasized the importance of efficiently fulfilling the responsibilities given to the government secretaries, so as to improve public service delivery and address the needs of citizens. Dahal attributed the decrease in revenues to economic recession and a decrease in imports, but also expressed his concern over income tax missing the target. Pointing out many hassles and long queues that taxpayers face when trying to pay their taxes, he highlighted the need for improved service delivery. The PM also expressed dissatisfaction with a below-par development spending. “Why is development spending not picking up pace? Who is responsible? If there is a problem at the policy level, come up with reform proposals. But the weaknesses seen in implementation cannot be ignored anymore,” he said. Dahal also called on the National Planning Commission (NPC) to prepare a plan for expediting development projects. He cautioned that if funds allocated for development projects cannot be spent, they will be transferred to other projects. “Make arrangements for proper work evaluation of officials who are unable to perform revenue collection and expedite development work according to the target,” he told NPC officials. Highlighting long queues and hassles faced by citizens when trying to obtain basic services such as passports, driver's licenses, national identity cards, and payment of taxes, Dahal conceded that things have not changed much for the people despite the adoption of a federal setup. Dahal then called for a review of the causes of incomplete or abandoned development projects. He urged the senior government officials to find out whether problems with service delivery and development are related to policy, institutions, implementation, processes, or management, and to take needful action to address these issues. Additionally, Dahal called for immediate filling of approximately one-third of the vacant staff positions at the provincial and local government agencies in order to improve service delivery and development works. He also directed the Ministry of Federal Affairs and General Administration to provide human resources to these governments. Dahal also called on senior government officials to make necessary arrangements to protect citizens from cold weather, including cold waves in the Tarai region and snowfall in the Himalayas. He also called relevant ministries to ensure a steady supply of daily necessities, and to monitor and inspect the market for quality consumer goods and to stamp out practices such as profiteering and the creation of artificial scarcity. He emphasized the need to closely monitor individuals and organizations that may be prone to corruption and to hold them accountable for any wrongdoing. The PM also stressed the importance of implementing digital and faceless services, eliminating middlemen, and establishing a system for addressing and resolving complaints in areas such as public transport, license distribution, and more. These efforts should be guided by a citizen charter that includes provisions for compensation, he added. Commenting on poor public transport services in the country, Dahal said the current service is not meeting standards and that road accidents are on the rise, disproportionately affecting the lower classes of society. The Prime Minister instructed officials to properly regulate public transport in order to reduce the number of traffic accidents and improve safety for all users." In addition, Dahal encouraged government officials to prioritize their work and limit their participation in meetings, conferences, seminars, and training during office hours. He also instructed them to focus on office management, including office time compliance and staff attendance, and to improve service flow and behavior toward service-seekers. Dahal also emphasized the importance of fostering a positive environment for investment and business in the private sector, and called for development of plans to promote import substitution and increase the production of basic goods. In terms of foreign relations, Dahal emphasized the need to maintain balanced and harmonious relationships with all friendly countries based on the principle of non-alignment. He called for the mobilization of bilateral and multilateral development aid by promoting economic diplomacy. He also instructed government officials to coordinate with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs when conducting foreign diplomatic meetings, and called for the development of a code of conduct in this regard. Dahal also expressed concern over the problems faced by Nepalis working abroad and called for immediate action to address structural and policy issues that may be contributing to these problems.

In 2016, Nepal took $215m in soft loan from China’s Export-Import Bank to construct the Pokhara Regional International Airport. The following year in May, Nepal officially joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a flagship project of Chinese President Xi Jinping. Since the signing of the BRI, China has been urging Nepal to select and propose specific infrastructure projects to be developed under the program. Initially, Nepal had proposed 36 projects, but they were later scaled down to nine. Now, both countries are holding talks to finalize the BRI implementation plan, which is expected to get a boost under Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal. On Aug 10 last year, former foreign minister Narayan Khadka and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi pledged to conclude the implementation plan for BRI cooperation, and convene a meeting of the Joint Commission later that same year. However, the meeting could not take place, as Nepal was due to hold elections to the federal parliament and provincial elections on Nov 20. Prime Minister Dahal of CPN (Maoist Center) is expected to accord priority to China’s BRI projects, unlike his predecessor Sher Bahadur Deuba of Nepali Congress, which is largely seen as ‘pro-West’. While Dahal will certainly try to make some progress on the BRI projects in order to appease Beijing, he is unlikely to accept loans under the program, which comes with lots of strings attached. Even if he were to warm up to the loan agreements, the move is likely to face fierce opposition from the NC. Beijing is buoyed by Dahal’s appointment, but it will be folly of the Xi government to expect unquestionable cooperation from him. It must take a lesson from the latest controversy over Pokhara Regional International Airport. A tweet by the Chinese embassy on the eve of the airport’s inauguration had Nepal in a tizzy. The tweet mentioned that the airport construction was a flagship project of Nepal-China BRI cooperation, but officials and observers claim it is not. Foreign policy expert Rupak Sapkota insists that the airport project is not a specific project under the BRI, and that China was trying to give a message that it is a flagship project in Nepal, which is a part of a broader BRI map. “There is no clarity whether the BRI is more about the infrastructure projects or a central piece of China’s international engagement,” he says. “I think China will come up with a concrete concept this year, which happens to be the 10th anniversary of the BRI launch.” The construction of the new airport in Pokhara was contracted to China CAMC Engineering Co, and the loan for the project also came from China’s EXIM Bank. But the important thing to remember here is that the loan agreement was signed before Nepal became a part of the BRI. However, Wang Xin, charge d’affaires at the Chinese embassy in Kathmandu, has clearly said that the new airport is the bright name card of the China-Nepal joint project under the BRI. Sapkota is of the view that the governments from both countries should address the latest controversy and clear the confusion, if any. Former foreign minister Prakash Sharan Mahat, who signed the BRI agreement on behalf of the Nepal government, also says that Pokhara airport does not fall under the BRI. “The agreement for the airport construction loan was signed in 2016, whereas I signed the BRI agreement in 2017,” he says. “China has no basis to make such a claim.” This is not the first time China has claimed that cooperation under the BRI has already made progress in Nepal. Addressing a program titled Sino-Nepal BRI Framework Agreement: Shared Future for Trans-Himalayan Region on Sept 9, 2021, former Chinese ambassador Hou Yanqi had said: “A series of important consensus have been reached on the cooperation under the BRI, as well as the construction of the trans-Himalayan Multi-Dimensional Connectivity Network.” In reality, there had been no such “important consensus”. Observers say China is desperate to implement the BRI projects in Nepal, as the previous government under Deuba had made it clear that Nepal would not take any loans under the BRI. “By projecting Pokhara airport project as part of the BRI, Beijing is simply trying to show the world that the flagship program is gaining ground in Nepal,” says a senior government official. “Since the US is lumping together all its assistance programs as part of its Indo-Pacific Strategy, China is doing the same with the BRI.” Geopolitical analyst Chandra Dev Bhatta says Beijing’s rash and rushed approach will not only disrepute the BRI, but also create a trust deficit between Nepal and China. “It appears that China is using us to serve its broader strategic interests,” says Bhatta. Eight facts:

1.       Chinese President Xi Jinping launched BRI  in 2013
2.       Nepal signed agreement with China to take loan to construct Pokhara Regional International Airport in 2016
3.       Nepal agreed to become a party to BRI in 2017
4.       Second BRI summit listed Trans-Himalayan Connectivity as a key BRI project in 2019
5.       Nepal presented nine potential projects that could be developed under the BRI; it does not include Pokhara airport
6.       BRI implementation plan is currently under deliberation
7.       Pokhara airport was not a joint project of two countries; China was just a lender and Nepal have to pay
8. Nepal built this airport, just contract was awarded to Chinese company

After the power-sharing negotiation between the Nepali Congress and CPN (Maoist Center) fell through on Dec 25, Maoist leader Puspha Kamal Dahal stormed out of the prime minister’s official residence in Baluwatar. Dahal drove straight to the Balkot residence of CPN-UML Chairman KP Oli, where other Maoist leaders were already present. Within a matter of few hours the UML and Maoists worked out a power-sharing deal, thwarting NC leader Sher Bahadur Deuba’s bid to retain his prime ministerial seat. “Balkot meeting agrees to make Dahal new prime minister” read the headlines of most online news outlets. Deuba, whose parties won the most number of parliament seats (89) in the Nov 20 general election, was suddenly on the back foot. The third-placed Maoist party, which secured just 32 slots in the House of Representatives, had outmaneuvered the grand old party. The last minute Maoist-UML alliance was supported by five other fringe political parties, effectively sidelining the NC not just from the center but provinces as well. While Dahal certainly outdid Deuba, the real winner here was Oli. In recent years, the former prime minister and UML kingpin has solidified his position as one of the most powerful leaders in Nepal’s political history. He is both loved and reviled for his political cunning and nationalist attitude. In 2018, the merger between the UML and Maoist saw the formation of Nepal Communist Party (NCP), which propelled Oli’s status as one of the most powerful prime ministers as well as the leader of the largest communist party. The UML-Maoist union, however, only lasted for just a little over two years. The party broke up after Oli began to display authoritarian bent both inside the party and in government. The party division didn’t just cause intense rivalry between Oli and Dahal, but also led to the departure of former UML senior leaders Madhav Kumar Nepal and Jhala Nath Khanal, who went on to form their own party. With the party fractured, Oli found himself leading a minority government. In order to hold on to power, he made two unsuccessful attempts to dissolve the parliament, but the Supreme Court intervened and dismissed him from the prime minister’s office. The NC led five-party coalition, which included the Maoists, went on to form a government, while the UML occupied the opposition aisle. For the Nov 20 election, the NC-led coalition forged an electoral alliance against the UML, which was contesting as a single party in most of the constituencies. Despite facing the five-party alliance alone, the UML managed to win 78 seats in parliament, just 11 fewer than the NC and 46 more than the Maoists. More importantly, the NC-led alliance failed to secure enough seats to even form a simple majority. And when Deuba refused to cede the prime minister’s office to Dahal as part of the power-sharing deal, the NC-led alliance disintegrated and the UML was thrust into the role of a kingmaker. The UML is the centerpiece of the latest coalition government and Oli the show-runner. Political analyst Dambar Khatiwada says the political power of Baluwatar has shifted to Balkot. He adds Oli has already started to influence what decisions are made in Baluwatar. The rekindling of Oli-Dahal relationship, given their past feuds, was unexpected. For now, there seems to be no friction between the two. But some observers say it is just a matter of time when their egos will clash. As a prime minister, Dahal has all executive powers and wants to act independently without pressure or influence from the coalition partners, mainly the UML.  But since it was Oli who made Dahal’s prime ministerial ambition come true, Oli will obviously want to exercise or influence the executive decisions. Oli has already been appointed the head of a cross-party mechanism formed to support and guide the government. Khatiwada says Oli has already established himself as the “de facto” prime minister of the current coalition. Oli also holds the responsibility of drafting the government’s common minimum program, which means Prime Minister Dahal will have to act as per guidance of the Oli-led committee. Besides, two key coalition partners—Rastriya Swatantra Party and Rastriya Prajatantra Party—are also closer to Oli than Dahal. A senior UML leader says Oli’s decision was key to RSP leader Rabi Lamichhane’s appointment as the Home Minister. Ahead of the election, Oli was highly critical of Lamichhane, a former TV host, and his party. But now he seems to have made peace with Lamichhane.  After taking charge of the Home Ministry, Lamichhane has been meeting Oli on a regular basis. Khatiwada says this means the new home minister is more loyal to Oli than Prime Minister Dahal. As for the RPP, the UML was already close with the party and had even forged an electoral alliance in some constituencies in the Nov 20 election. The UML, RSP and RPP also have similar views on issues of federalism, citizenship, and the demands raised by Madhesi and Janajati communities. Observers say this brings the three parties closer, and, as a result, Prime Minister Dahal will come under pressure to work as per Oli’s plan. The prime minister’s work will also be made difficult by the fact that the UML candidates will be occupying the posts of the parliament speaker and the president. There is no doubt that these two key positions will be given to Oli’s close aides. This will afford Oli sufficient space to wield executive power from outside. Moreover, the UML arguably has the greatest organizational strength than any other political parties, which means Oli will have a significant influence on bureaucracy. UML leader Mahesh Basnet says the UML has a pivotal role in the Maoist-led government. He also hinted at the possible merger between the UML and Maoists under Oli’s initiative. But if past is any prologue, Oli and Dahal are sure to clash with each other, whether they are in the same party, in different ones, or for that matter, in the same coalition government.