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December 25, 2022, was a black day for many Nepali Congress leaders and cadres. It was the day Pushpa Kamal Dahal, the leader of CPN (Maoist Center), walked out of the electoral alliance with the Congress and joined the CPN-UML to form a coalition government. Despite winning the largest number of parliamentary seats in the general election held in November, the NC suddenly found itself in the opposition. It was an unprecedented event. The pre-election coalition government of Congress and Maoists was poised to continue their partnership, or so it seemed until the morning of December 25. The two parties were hashing out a disagreement regarding which party gets to lead the government first. Before the election, Deuba had agreed to cede the prime minister’s office to Dahal. But the NC leader was reluctant to honor the agreement after the election results were out. After several rounds of negotiation ended in a stalemate, Dahal did the unexpected and went on to form a coalition with his archrival KP Sharma Oli of UML. The incident sent shock waves through the NC’s rank and file. There was widespread criticism against Deuba for breaking the coalition. Some party leaders even demanded his resignation as the party chief. Fearful of potential backlash, Deuba postponed the party’s Central Working Committee meeting and started damage control with his close aides. He deputed a team of leaders to dismantle Maoist-UML coalition and turn the political tide in the favor of NC. NC Vice-president Purna Bahadur Khadka, a close aide of Deuba, says their singular mission over the past two months was to engineer a rift between Dahal and Oli. It started with the party’s decision to give Prime Minister Dahal the vote of confidence in January. The move by the Congress leadership created a major dispute in the party. Leaders like Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma even registered notes of dissent against Deuba’s move terming it undemocratic, as it would render the parliament without an official opposition. But giving Dahal the trust vote was a masterstroke on Deuba’s part. The move not only drove a wedge between UML and Maoists, it also helped Deuba get an upper hand over the rival leaders within his own party. Khadka says now the Congress will now join the Dahal government as a key coalition partner and handle some key portfolios. Ramesh Rijal, central working committee member of NC, agrees that Deuba outdid his political rivals both inside and outside the party. He has effectively swatted aside his rivals in the party and gained more space to consolidate his power as an undisputed party head. Deuba’s supporters say the rival camps in the Congress have nothing against the party president now. They say even his strongest critics are now praising him.   The NC leader has also registered a personal victory by nominating his long-time rival Ram Chandra Poudel as a presidential candidate. Some party leaders say with Poudel out of the way, his supporters are bound to join the Deuba faction rather than the rival camp led by Shekhar Koirala. If anything, they say Deuba is likely to become more powerful. He has emerged out of the December 25 fiasco with more strength. Deuba even managed to convince his rivals including Koirala and Thapa to work together to break up the UML-Maoist government partnership and revive the pre-election coalition. Thapa had acted as an intermediary between Deuba and Dahal. It was the job of the Congress general secretary to convince the Maoist prime minister of a long-term partnership. Previously, Thapa was among the NC leaders who were against the idea of even forging an electoral alliance with the Maoist party. He now seems upbeat with the revival of the Maoist-NC coalition. He said Tuesday that Congress has realized its mistake and that the party was committed to work together with the Maoists. The path ahead, he added, was rocky and that the two parties must remain steadfast to continue the alliance for the next five years. One NC leader says it is a sign that Deuba’s decisions will prevail in the party from now on. Political analysts also agree that Deuba has emerged a major victor by steering the party back to power and silencing his rivals. Analyst Bishnu Dahal says Poudel’s nomination as a presidential candidate will prompt more party leaders to take a softer approach toward Deuba. As Deuba’s rival Poudel did not get anything, adds Dahal, but after he supported Deuba by standing down from the leadership race during NC’s 14th general convention in 2021, he got to become the presidential candidate. Dahal says to further enhance his position in Congress, Deuba could pick ministerial candidates from the rival camps in the party. Now that the NC has regained a semblance of unity, some party leaders say the party leadership should think about reforming its departments and sister organizations. In 2021, the party had pledged to hold a separate convention to decide the party’s ideological path but there has not been any progress. NC leader Nain Singh Mahar says this is a perfect opportunity to revitalize the party. The return to power should not put all party related activities on the back burner, he adds.

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal and his primary coalition partner KP Sharma Oli have fallen out after just two months. To the surprise of many, the two political rivals had joined hands to form a coalition government on December 25 last year. However, the premature end of their relationship was not at all surprising. Political analysts and media including this paper had anticipated the discord between Dahal and Oli. It was a matter of when, not if. This coalition government was formed on a weak foundation and fraught relationship between its two major partners, CPN (Maoist Center) and CPN-UML. Dahal, who became the prime minister despite his party coming third in the November 20 parliamentary election, was never comfortable working with the second-place UML, whose leader Oli was effectively pulling the strings of the government. Dahal’s ambition to lead the government had driven him toward Oli on December 25 when his pre-election coalition partner and electoral ally, Nepali Congress, refused him the prime minister’s seat. Before the parliamentary polls, the Maoist and Congress had agreed to share premiership, where each party would hold the post for 2.5 years. As per the agreement, Dahal was supposed to become the prime minister first. But the NC leader and former prime minister, Sher Bahadur Deuba, reneged on the deal after the party secured the most number of seats—albeit short of majority—in the House of Representatives. When Deuba insisted that as the leader of the largest party he was the natural claimant to the post of prime minister, Dahal did the unexpected and entered a power-sharing deal with Oli, who until then was considered his staunch rival. It was clear that Dahal reached out to Oli out of sheer desperation because he agreed to a power-sharing deal that largely favored the UML in the long run. In order to become a half-term prime minister, Dahal agreed to hand over the speakership, the presidency and the second-half term of premiership to the UML. As expected, Prime Minister Dahal started feeling the pressure from Oli from day one. Oli had greater control over which party got which ministry, and he even took charge of designing the government’s common minimum program. It was the Congress that came to Dahal’s rescue when the party, despite sitting in the opposition aisle, gave him the vote of confidence in January. That trust vote was a lifeline for Dahal who, having voted the UML candidate to the post of House speaker, was now under pressure to back the UML presidential candidate. Now, Dahal is back with the NC in a bid to revive the pre-election coalition—and curb the growing UML strength. For some, Dahal has served revenge against Oli by dishonoring the gentleman’s agreement on the presidential election slated for March 9. Dahal has done exactly what Oli did to him in 2019, when the latter refused to honor the agreement to hand over the reins of the erstwhile Nepal Communist Party (NCP), of which they were co-chairs, and the government leadership. There was already a severe trust deficit between Dahal and Oli. It started after 2019 with Oli trying to run the erstwhile NCP and the government without taking Dahal into confidence and trying to dissolve the parliament twice. Oli’s wayward attitude while running the party and the government led to the bitter break-up of the NCP. Soon after the Maoist and UML agreed to work together for the second time after the November election, Oli once again tried to exert pressure on Dahal. A senior Maoist leader says there was never an environment of trust between Dahal and Oli, which became even more apparent during the government formation process. Prime Minister Dahal was unhappy with the way two coalition partners, Rastriya Swatantra Party and Rastriya Prajatantra Party, were close to the UML, adds the leader. RSP leader Rabi Lamichhane was appointed the home minister at Oli’s insistence. And when Lamichhane was forced to resign over invalid citizenship, Oli had tried to reinstate him against Dahal’s wishes. The RPP, meanwhile, was creating trouble for the Dahal government by making statements against secular state and federalism. Another Maoist leader says Prime Minister Dahal was deeply regretful of having to lead a coalition with right-wing nationalist parties who were attacking and discrediting the constitution. Dahal himself has described the coalition of the past two months as a “bitter political experience”, which showed suspicion against the constitution. In recent weeks, Dahal has been deliberately keeping distance with RPP and RSP. He didn’t even consult the parties in power while forging an alliance with NC on the presidential election. The UML, meanwhile, has termed Dahal’s decision to back Congress’s presidential candidate a betrayal. Oli has called Dahal an opportunist who would go to any length to be in power. Political analysts say Dahal would have had no choice but to toe the UML’s line had it not been for the NC. They say the vote of confidence from the Congress was a turning point for Dahal, because it ensured the security of his government. The NC on its part also tried to convince Dahal to revive the pre-election coalition by agreeing to uphold his premiership, provided the party gets the presidency. With the largest party behind him, Dahal has also made efforts to get closer with his old allies such as CPN (Unified Socialist), Janata Samajbadi Party, Loktantrik Samajbadi Party and other fringe parties. Analysts say Dahal will be better off with parties that share common ideologies, unlike RSP and RPP. There were external concerns too. Ever since Dahal came to power, there has been a flurry of high-level visits from foreign powers, like the US, India and European countries. It is said the visiting high-level officials were concerned that the same party should not get the vital positions of the country. Prime Minister Dahal and his party, as well as the NC, were aware of the danger of the UML taking control of all vital institutions. For Dahal, it would have been a political suicide. He suspected that his government be paralyzed by the UML-nominated president, or worse, Oli could remove him. At this point, Dahal’s key priority is concluding the transitional justice process, and to do so, he believes that the NC’s democratic credential can play a vital role. It is also the only way out for Dahal’s Maoist party, which has been losing its political relevance and popularity since 2017. Political analysts say the prime minister seems to have weathered the storm for now. He will have to go through another round of vote of confidence in parliament and he will most likely hold his premiership. Then comes the hard part of striking the right kind of power-sharing deal at the center and provincial level among eight political parties.    

It’s a case of history repeating itself. The characters are the same, only their roles have been reversed. In 2019-20, it was like a daily routine for Pushpa Kamal Dahal to visit Baluwatar to remind the then Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli of the gentlemen's agreement between them on running the government and their party on equal basis. At the time, the two leaders were co-chairing the erstwhile Nepal Communist Party (NCP), formed after the merger between Oli’s CPN-UML and Dahal’s CPN (Maoist Center) in May 2018. But Oli’s refusal to honor the agreement with Dahal ultimately led to a vertical split in the party. These days, it is Oli who has been frequenting Baluwatar on an almost daily basis to meet Dahal, the current prime minister, to remind the latter of the gentleman's agreement reached on December 25 last year. As part of the power-sharing deal, Dahal had promised Oli, his primary coalition partner, to hand over the prime minister’s office after 2.5 years, and support UML’s speaker and presidential candidates. Since December 25 when Dahal became prime minister, there have been one-on-one meetings between two leaders more than 20 times. As agreed, Dahal’s party voted UML speaker candidate, Dev Raj Ghimire, to victory last month. But now the prime minister is not so keen about backing UML in the presidential election slated for March 9. Just like in the past, Dahal and Oli are drifting apart after coming together to form a government. On Thursday, too, Oli held a long and fruitless meeting with Dahal regarding the presidential election. The UML leader appears to be losing his hope and patience with the prime minister and his party. He doesn’t seem positive about the longevity of the current coalition. What will happen on March 9 is still unclear. There are speculations of repetition of 2008 presidential election when then Nepali Congress candidate, Ram Baran Yadav, despite being projected to lose the contest, won the presidency. The only thing clear at the moment is that some parties are mounting efforts to defeat the UML candidate at all costs. CPN (Unified Socialist) Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal made the intention clear when he said on Wednesday that giving one party the leadership reins of both houses of parliament as well as the presidency would spell disaster for the country. There is also an increasing chance of the current coalition breaking up. Just a few days earlier, NC General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa predicted that this coalition was bound to crack within a week. It is no secret that the NC, which was relegated to the opposition benches despite winning the most number of seats in the parliamentary election of November last year, wants to dismantle the Maoist-UML coalition partnership and form a new government under its leadership. That is why the NC gave its confidence vote to Prime Minister Dahal to the surprise of many. The trust vote from the opposition gave Dahal the greater latitude to bargain with Oli, the kingmaker in the current coalition. The safety net offered by the NC has given Prime Minister Dahal to take decisions that serve the interest of his party, like announcing a public holiday to mark the day the Maoist party began a decade-long armed insurgency. Deuba and Oli didn’t utter even a single word of criticism regarding the controversial public holiday decision, because they both want Dahal by their side. Prime Minister Dahal has not said clearly that he will not vote for the UML presidential candidate, but he has been calling for a national consensus candidate. If Oli and his party wish to keep this coalition intact, the best course would be to acquiesce to Dahal. The prime minister is under intense pressure from his own party, NC, CPN (Unified Socialist) and even ‘external forces’ to keep the UML out of the presidential race. They do not want UML’s monopoly in all key state institutions. Under the current power-sharing deal, the UML, which currently heads both houses of the parliament, is set to get the executive power after 2.5 years. And if the party were to get the presidency as well, it would dominate all vital positions, including the Constitutional Council that recommends appointments to key positions. Prime Minister Dahal is aware of this prospect, and his party leaders have also cautioned him against accepting UML’s presidential candidate, who will most likely be a loyalist of Oli. Some Maoist leaders are already putting pressure on Dahal to support the NC candidate instead. NC leaders are also frequently meeting Dahal for the same purpose. NC leader Sher Bahadur Deuba and his team are working closely to convince Dahal. Once the Maoist party comes up with an official position, the NC is likely to announce its presidential candidate. Ram Chandra Poudel and Krishna Prasad Sitaula are the front-runners in the presidential race from the NC.     But Dahal wants NC to come up with a long-term collaboration vision with the Maoist party. He has been in consultation with NC General Secretary Thapa, who has divergent views on some issues related to alliances. The UML and its leaders have already sensed that a conspiracy is afoot to deny presidency to the party. The party, however, is treading carefully, for it is in their interest to keep the coalition going. A political fallout with the Maoists means the UML will lose its power both at the center and in provinces. UML Secretary Lekhraj Bhatta says the party will come up with a candidate acceptable to all parties. He is optimistic that the current coalition will survive. Senior Maoist leaders like Narayan Kaji Shrestha and Barsha Man Pun are also in favor of keeping the coalition intact. But it is not Dahal’s decision alone that could keep the Maoist-UML together. Meanwhile, Madhes-based Janata Samajbadi Party and Loktrantrik Samajbadi Party are closely following the Maoist-UML relationship. According to some leaders, the Madhes-based parties could come up with their own presidential candidate. Prime Minister Dahal faces an acid test. He must bring all parties together and prevent the country from descending into yet another political tailspin.

Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra held marathon meetings with Nepali leaders and ministers during his two-day official visit to Kathmandu. As this was the first high-level visit from India following the formation of a new government in Nepal under Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Kwatra wanted to know first-hand the latest political situation in Nepal, including the upcoming election of the president. While officials from both Nepal and India have not mentioned anything about Kwatra’s message to the Nepali leaders, a senior NC leader said India is concerned about the upcoming presidential election in Nepal. The leader said India is also in favor of the NC and CPN (Maoist Center) coming together once again. A government source said although India is trying to stay neutral on the issue of Nepal’s presidential election, it does prefer a non-UML candidate. India in recent years has tried its best to keep out from the political affairs of Nepal. After Nepal promulgated a new constitution in 2015, India, for a couple of years, pressed Nepal’s major political parties to address the demands of Madhes-based parties. It also imposed an undeclared border blockade, only to see the move backfire in the form of rising anti-Indian sentiments among Nepali public, and parties like the UML cashing in on this feeling to win elections and take a pro-China approach. Indian officials say they have taken a policy of working with whichever party comes to power. Political analyst Vijaya Kanta Karna said the main purpose of Kwatra’s visit is to convey the message that India is ready to work with the new government led by Prime Minister Dahal. The visit, he added, also has a geopolitical significance because it came on the heels of a series of high-level visits from the US and China. Despite India’s so called hands-off approach on Nepal, India’s preference is not hidden. It wanted the continuation of the NC-led five-party coalition following the Nov 20 general election. During his stay in Nepal, Indian Foreign Secretary Kwatra met, among others, President Bidya Devi Bhandari, Prime Minister and Maoist Chairman Dahal, NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba, UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli, and CPN (Unified Socialist) Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal. Kwatra also set the tone for PM Dahal’s India visit, which is likely to take place after the presidential election scheduled for March 9. He tentatively discussed the possible agenda for Dahal’s visit. Kwatra also held an official meeting with his Nepali counterpart Bharat Raj Paudyal and reviewed various aspects of bilateral relations, including connectivity, trade and transit, power sector cooperation, agriculture, and education. India has stepped up connectivity projects in Nepal. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the two sides reviewed with satisfaction the progress made in connectivity projects such as railways, transmission lines, bridges and integrated checkposts. Nepal and India also discussed the early conclusion of the renewed transit treaty, review of the trade treaty, and convening of the inter-governmental committee on Trade (IGC) at an early date. Power trade between two countries also prominently figured in the bilateral talks. The ministry said the two sides expressed commitment to allowing the export of power from Nepal to India on a long-term basis by utilizing all products of the exchange market. Technical issues regarding the upgrading of cross-border transmission lines and early approval of the four proposed transmission line projects were also discussed. Foreign Secretary Paudyal also reiterated Nepal’s request for additional air-entry routes as well as early concurrence of the near-border flight operation of Gautam Buddha International Airport. As for boundary disputes between the two countries, including in Susta and Kalapani, there was no substantial discussion. The ministry said the two secretaries discussed boundary matters, where they exchanged views on completing the boundary works in the remaining segments through an established bilateral mechanism.

A high-level South Korean official is in Kathmandu to scale up bilateral engagements between two countries.  Jang Sung-min, special advisor for political affairs to President Yoon Suk-yeol, arrived on Sunday as a special envoy  and he is busy meeting ministers and senior government officials. Jang met Foreign Minister Bimala Rai Poudyal on Monday and discussed various areas of bilateral and multilateral cooperation between two nations. He is scheduled to call on Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal on Tuesday. In the meeting with Dahal, he will present a blue-print to enhance  bilateral ties. Speaking with a group of journalists, Jang said his visit marks the beginning of high-level exchange of visits between Republic of Korea and Nepal, as the two countries are set to mark the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations next year. Jang said he was in Kathmandu to discuss what can be done to kick-start a new beginning for the next 50 years of Korea-Nepal friendship. Over the past seven decades, Korea has made tremendous progress, turning itself from an aid recipient country to an aid providing country. Today, it is the world’s 10th largest economy and has adopted an assertive foreign policy. In this context, said Jang, President Yoon feels that it is now Korea’s turn to give back to the world. As Nepal is in the midst of economic development, he added, South Korea could share its success story and offer assistance in the field of technology, education and other areas. Jang said Nepal figures prominently in South Korea’s foreign policy outlook, as the two countries share common values such as democracy, freedom, and free market economy. Jang said Korea wants to engage with those countries that aspire to become a free-market economy. Like South Korea, he noted, Nepal is also surrounded by big powers, making it important to their national interests and national security. He said it would be prudent for Nepal to adopt a balanced policy with all powers to serve its national interests. The high-level visit from South Korea is also noteworthy because it is an important US ally. The country came up with its Indo-Pacific Strategy in January, which has been lauded by the US. Analysts say the strategy, based on three principles of inclusiveness, trust, and reciprocity, shows the Yoon administration’s ambition to make South Korea a global pivotal state amid growing threats from North Korea. Along with Nepal, South Korea is taking a series of measures to increase its interest in the Indo-Pacific region. South Korea is expecting reciprocal steps from the Nepali side to further enhance the bilateral cooperation. Korean officials say they are also looking to enhance collaboration in tourism and culture. Of late, RoK is closely following Nepal's engagement with China and other powers. South Korea’s Indo-Pacific strategy talks about building a free, peaceful, and prosperous Indo-Pacific region by enhancing cooperation with the countries in the region. Under the leadership of the new president, RoK is expanding the breadth of diplomacy throughout Asia as it aspires to make South Korea a critical player in the global stage. According to observers, South Korea’s willingness to expand engagement with Nepal and other countries is an opportunity to bring more assistance and investment to spur economic growth. The Republic of Korea is increasingly becoming an important and reliable partner in Nepal’s economic development. Construction, sericulture development, hydropower development, road and infrastructure development, health science, e-governance are some of the major areas supported by the Government of Korea to Nepal in the past. Of late, RoK has expressed willingness to support in the areas of cyber security.

Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra is arriving in Kathmandu on Monday on a two-day official visit, at the invitation of his Nepali counterpart Bharat Raj Paudyal. Kwatra is scheduled to meet Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal and other senior government officials to discuss various bilateral matters such as connectivity, power trade, agriculture, health and culture. The Indian foreign secretary is also expected to extend an invitation to Prime Minister Dahal for an official India visit. Dahal plans to visit India soon after the presidential election, scheduled for March 9. The Indian side has said the visit is in keeping with the tradition of regular high-level exchanges between the two countries and the priority India attaches to its relations with Nepal under its neighborhood first policy. It added that the cooperation between the two countries has strengthened in recent years, with several major infrastructures and cross-border connectivity projects completed with India’s assistance.  Nepal’s Foreign Ministry said Kwatra’s trip is in continuation of the regular exchange of visits between the two friendly neighbors. The visit will be an opportunity to further expand and deepen Nepal-India ties, the ministry added. Kwatra’s visit comes on the heels of a series of high-level visits from the US. In this context, ApEx asked individuals attached to foreign affairs, politics and business what they think of and expect from the Nepal visit of a top official from India. Show diplomatic maturity Deepak Kumar Upadhyay, former ambassador  Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra’s Nepal visit is regular and routine. But the visit is taking place at a time when Nepal’s domestic politics is passing through a sensitive time, particularly due to the upcoming presidential vote. While I personally think that Kwatra’s main mission is to hand over an invitation letter to Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal for an official India visit, it would be good if the two sides also presented their respective agendas in a free and frank way. But I see lack of immaturity on both sides when it comes to dealing with bilateral issues that demand regular, in-depth and serious dialogue. Some bilateral issues between Nepal and India have remained unaddressed for a long time. This only shows a lack of maturity on both sides. I hope for matured diplomacy from both Nepal and India to overcome the outstanding issues. Push agendas clearly Bhek Bahadur Thapa, foreign affairs expert Visits to Nepal by high-level foreign officials have increased in recent times. Big countries are showing interests in the internal political situation of Nepal. Regarding the Indian foreign secretary’s visit, Nepal and India have always had cordial and close ties. But there are some outstanding issues between the two countries, and they must be discussed during this visit. Nepal should put its agenda clearly and strongly. Prioritize trade issues Rajan Bhattarai, UML leader I think the purpose of the Indian foreign secretary’s Nepal visit is to extend an invitation to Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal for his visit to India. I do not think there will be any concrete discussions on bilateral issues. But, right now, we have some burning issues with India. We have a swollen trade imbalance with India and our foreign reserves are not in good shape. Nepal should take up these issues related to the economy with the Indian foreign secretary. Other priority issues that need attention are the EPG report, border disputes and ensuring smooth energy trade between the two countries. Don’t expect a breakthrough  Lokraj Baral, former ambassador Traditionally, foreign secretary of India takes a trip to neighboring countries after assuming office. So, this visit is by and large a routine affair. There are already several bilateral agencies between Nepal and India, including the one formed to review bilateral development projects. Foreign Secretary Kwatra is likely to get first-hand information on the current political situation in Nepal, but I doubt there will be any major breakthrough on bilateral issues, least of all on the border dispute. Even if the two sides were to touch upon the issue, it will most likely be postponed for future deliberations. Seek more air routes Shreejana Rana, president, Nepal-India Chamber of Commerce and Industry Nepal and India should discuss ways to improve air connectivity. Until now, only one entry point via Simara is made available for Nepal-bound flights coming through Indian air routes. To make the airfare more competitive, other entry points should be made available as well. At least Biratnagar in the east, and Bhairahawa, Nepalgunj and Dhangadhi in the west should get entry permits for Nepal-bound flights. As the Nepal government provides permission to Indian private airlines to enter Nepal, the Indian government should also provide permits to Nepali private airlines to fly to different Indian cities. There should be reciprocal arrangements vis-a-vis air connectivity.

It has been more than five years since Nepal became a part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, but nothing has come of it yet. The Chinese side has been consistently putting pressure on Nepal’s political parties to make concrete progress on the issue. In principle, all the parties agree that Nepal should take economic benefits from the BRI, but they differ on the modalities of engagement. The Nepali Congress of late has been saying that it prefers grants over loans under BRI. The two major leftist parties, CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center), meanwhile, have not made their positions clear. Their leaders, however, say some feasible projects could be implemented. Even as Nepal’s position on BRI remains unclear, China has come up with two new strategies—Global Development Initiative (GDI) and Global Security initiative (GSI). And now Beijing wants Nepal to be a part of these strategic initiatives as well. In April 2022, Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the GSI, a global governance and security architecture, at the opening ceremony of the Boao Forum for Asia, stating that it is another global public good offered by China. The details of the security initiative are oblique. Chinese media and experts have explained its contents in a vague notional way. Sanjay Upadhya, a US-based foreign policy expert, says while some features of the GSI sound attractive, others are too ambiguous. “The source of ambiguity relates to how the GSI could be implemented as an umbrella mechanism, especially when diverse countries have different security concerns and priorities,” he says. “For a country like Nepal, the GSI also smacks of a China-led security alliance, which our foreign policy has traditionally shied away from. Even if it were a more benign enterprise, the GSI as it is currently articulated is too sketchy for consideration.” While China has tried to brand its security initiative as a way to maintain global peace and uphold the UN Charter, observers say it is no more than a counterweight to the US-led security alliance. President Xi, on the occasion of International Peace Day on Sept 22, sent a congratulatory letter, where he promoted the GSI on a global platform.  He called on all countries to uphold the common, cooperative and sustainable security concept, to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, and to abide by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter. Both GSI and GDI have become major talking points in all high-level meetings between Nepal and China. Some Chinese officials are even going so far as to claim that Nepal is already a part of these initiatives. A statement from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs following the meeting between Narayan Khadka and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi back in August said that Nepal endorses the visions of the GSI and GDI, and was trying to find a way to participate in and seek synergy with the two initiatives. A diplomatic source, however, said Khadka had clearly told the Chinese side that Nepal was ready to discuss the GSI only if it is purely a development initiative. “Khadka had also reminded the Chinese side about Nepal’s policy of staying out of military or security alliances,” added the source. Earlier, the Chinese ambassador to Nepal also claimed that Nepal welcomes the initiatives. Such assertions from China have been partly encouraged also by the decision of President Bidya Devi Bhandari to participate in a high-level meeting of the GSI against the advice of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The ministry had written to the Office of the President, saying that Nepal was yet to decide whether or not to join the GSI, and that it would be inadvisable for the president to participate in the meeting. President Bhandari didn’t heed the recommendation and made a virtual address at the GSI event. Political analysts say as Nepal’s non-alignment policy bars it from joining a military alliance, the president’s office committed a foreign policy indiscretion. As far as GDI is concerned, two projects have already gone into implementation. One is Nepal Smiling Children Project under which China Foundation for Rural Development, an implementing agency, will provide food for 3,600 children from poor communities. Another is support to schools and communities in remote areas for pandemic prevention and green recovery. Along with Nepal, this project has already been implemented in more than 70 countries. Arun Subedi, foreign affairs advisor to former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, says Beijing hasn’t sent any official letter of request to join the GSI. “As far as I can tell, there has been no official decision for or against the initiative as China has not made an official correspondence on the matter,” he said. Gopal Khanal, a foreign affairs analyst, also says that the discourse on Nepal’s possibility of joining or rejecting the GSI and GDI will begin only after the Chinese side officially approaches the government. “China should also share the contents of the initiatives if it wishes Nepal to join them,” he said. “It will help our parties and the government to come up with a position.” Major components of GSI

•   Vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security
• Working together to maintain world peace and security
•   Respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, upholding non-interference in internal affairs, and respecting the independent choices of development paths and social systems made by people in different countries
•   Abiding by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, rejecting the Cold War mentality, opposing unilateralism, and shunning group politics and bloc confrontation
•   Taking the legitimate security concerns of all countries seriously, upholding the principle of indivisible security, building a balanced, effective and sustainable security architecture, and opposing the pursuit of one’s own security at the cost of others’ security
•   Peacefully resolving differences and disputes between countries through dialogue and consultation, supporting all efforts conducive to the peaceful settlement of crises, rejecting double standards, and opposing the wanton use of unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction

The presidential election, slated for March 9, has emerged as a major bone of contention between Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal and his primary coalition partner KP Sharma Oli of CPN-UML. Dahal is having cold feet about supporting UML’s presidential nominee calling for a “national consensus candidate”, much to Oli’s chagrin. UML has already secured the House speakership with the Maoist’s support, and Dahal has promised to hand over the premiership to Oli after 2.5 years. The prime minister is not keen about voting for UML’s presidential pick, which could give Oli considerable political latitude. Maoist leaders say Prime Minister Dahal wants a presidential candidate based on consensus and yet does not want to break the coalition by crossing Oli. As the health of the coalition continues to deteriorate over power sharing tug-of-war, Prime Minister Dahal is reportedly considering three strategies. First is honoring the gentleman’s understanding between him and Oli, and supporting UML’s presidential candidate but with some preconditions. Among the preconditions will be settling the transitional justice process following the spirit of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, according to some Maoist leaders. Dahal does not want Oli to use transitional justice as a political bargaining chip. Another of Dahal’s fears of having a UML candidate as president is that Oli might conspire to topple the government and push the country toward parliament dissolution. Some Maoist leaders say Dahal is already feeling ganged up on by the UML and other parties in the coalition close to the UML, namely Rastriya Swatantra Party and Rastriya Prajatantra Party. Dahal is currently under pressure to reappoint RSP leader Rabi Lamichhane who recently resigned as Home Minister over citizenship controversy. The issue of Lamichhane’s reappointment has further widened the rift between Dahal and Oli. It is said Dahal wants to replace RSP and RPP with CPN (Unified Socialist) and other fringe parties that remain outside the government despite supporting it. By doing so, the prime minister hopes to reduce UML’s influence in his government. According to one Maoists leader, the onus of creating an environment of trust lies on Oli. If that happens, he said, Prime Minister Dahal might agree to support UML’s presidential candidate who is not Oli's loyalist. Maoist leader Devendra Poudel is of the view that there should be a consensus among major parties including Nepali Congress on the presidential candidate.  He added such an agreement would also ensure cordial ties with the international community. It is said Prime Minister Dahal wants to bring NC on board the consensus boat for the presidential election also to appease India, the US and rest of the Western world — and to shed the “pro-China” label. Dahal’s other strategy is breaking the current coalition and forming a new one with the NC. In this scenario, the Maoist party will support NC’s presidential candidate. It will also pave the way for the Unified Socialist, Nepal Samajbadi Party, and other fringe parties to join the government. If that happens, Dahal could bargain for a full-five-year term as prime minister with the NC, which the latter is likely to agree to. As this paper has previously written, Dahal is seeking NC’s assurance to forge a long-term alliance and to conclude the transitional justice process. The third strategy is to seek support of the major parties to back Madhav Kumar Nepal of Unified Socialist as the next president. If the UML is genuinely committed to the prospects of forming a broad leftist alliance, it should not object to Nepal's candidacy. This could also be an acceptable option for the NC, says a Maoist leader, as well as address the concerns of external powers. Prime Minister Dahal is reportedly discussing these three alternatives with his close aides. Meanwhile, the UML is getting increasingly suspicious of Dahal’s intention. The prime minister’s position on the Home Ministry portfolio and his reluctance to form a political mechanism to guide the government has already miffed Oli and his party. Oli has been meeting Dahal on a daily basis in order to keep the coalition intact. The Maoist prime minister, who got the trust votes from the NC and other parties, is confident of his survival even without the UML.