Maoist Center will have a tough time finding Dahal’s successor
No leader in the CPN (Maoist Center) has been as consequential as Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The 68-year-old former rebel leader, who waged a decade-long armed insurgency against the state before entering peaceful politics in 2006, has become prime minister three times in the past 15 years. The only other Maoist leader to become prime minister is Baburam Bhattarai, who left the party in 2015. Dahal, sometimes referred to as the Maoists supremo, has been ruling the roost since the party’s rebellion days. Despite the presence of other influential leaders like Bhattarai, CP Gajurel and Mohan Baidya (the three are no longer with the Maoist party), it was Dahal, who gripped public and media imagination during the wartime. Better known by his nom de guerre Prachanda at the time, Dahal developed a cult around himself. There was an air of mystery about him. Most Nepalis saw him in person only after the party joined the peace process. While the cult of Prachanda might have helped the Maoist party become a major political force, it has also the potential of ruining it. Despite his many faults as a leader—from promoting nepotism to flip-flopping in his decisions to joining unnatural alliances to remain in power—Dahal is still revered by his supporters. One could even argue that the Maoist party is nothing without him. Though Dahal has no immediate plan of retiring from active politics, the virtual absence of successors is a cause for concern. While Bhattarai is said to be preparing to return to the mother party, his return is not going to make much of a difference. Bhattarai and Dahal are of the same age—and, more importantly, the former has already made his intention clear about retiring from active politics one day. This leaves the Maoist party with a smattering of leaders like Narayan Kaji Shrestha, Barsha Man Pun, Janardan Sharma, Dev Gurung and Krishna Bahadur Mahara. But the truth is these leaders are nowhere close to Dahal. The future of the Maoist party is at stake because it never invested the time and energy to build its organizational strength. Ever since joining the peace process in 2006, the Maoist leadership has more or less wasted time in power politics and suffered multiple splits. In the first Constituent Assembly election of 2008, the Maoists emerged as the largest party ahead of traditional big old parties, Nepali Congress and CPN-UML. But the subsequent elections—CA polls of 2013 and the general elections of 2017 and 2022—have seen the party become progressively weaker. The Maoists' merger with the UML to form the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) also proved disastrous, as the party broke up within less than three years. In the process, the Maoist party lost one of its senior leaders, Ram Bahadur Thapa, who went on to join the UML. The recent general election saw Dahal’s party come in third position, securing just 32 seats in the 275-member parliament, behind the Nepali Congress (89) and the UML (78). Dahal became the prime minister after breaking the alliance with the NC and joining forces with the UML. Multiple leaders that ApEx spoke with admitted that the Maoist party’s organizational strength has suffered so much that there are only a few constituencies from where the party can win elections on its own. The party forged an electoral alliance with the NC in the Nov 20 polls of last year out of this very fear. And yet the party could secure only 32 parliamentary seats, which is 17 fewer than the 2017 election. Party leader Haribol Gajurel says they have virtually no organization at the grassroots, without which their existence is in danger. Gajurel is in favor of reviving the party’s organization across the country, but he is unlikely to get Dahal’s nod, with other senior leaders like Shrestha, Pun, Sharma, Gurung and Mahara on the line. That is why Gajurel has been appointed as an advisor to Prime Minister Dahal. Party leaders say Pun and Sharma are more likely to win Dahal’s trust when it comes to handling of the party affairs. Shrestha, despite being Dahal’s trustee and a deputy, does not have a strong support base within the party, while Mahara has more or less taken a backseat following a rape allegation on which he got clean chit from court. Similarly, Gurung is someone who had defected from the party in 2013 to join the Baidya faction. Maoist leaders say now there is mainly a two-horse race between the general secretary duo Sharma and Pun to take lead of the party affairs. Both of them have considerable influence in the party structure, so much so that Dahal has to pick the leaders close to them while making key appointments in the party and the government. During the distribution of election tickets ahead of the Nov 20 polls, Pun and Sharma were dominant after Dahal. After the elections, two leaders stood on opposite corners on the issue of government formation. Sharma, who had served as finance minister in the Deuba-led government, stood in favor of continuing the pre-poll alliance, while Pun actively worked to bring communist forces together. But despite their growing clout and power within the party, Sharma and Pun can never measure up to Dahal. In any case, if one of them were to helm the party, there is bound to be a factional rift within the Maoists, which could be even worse for the party. It has been a year since the Maoist Center organized its general convention, and the party is yet to form its politburo and standing committees. Due to the party split, it took a long time for Dahal to select the party's office-bearers. The party has also yet to form its departments. Sharma is actively trying to take control of the party’s organizational department. A few weeks back, he even held a meeting of the party's organizational department where he came under fire. Maoist central committee member DP Dhakal said Dahal is unlikely to pick one specific leader to look after the party affairs, as the party is preparing to convene a central committee meeting for discussing ways to strengthen the party's organizational base. The meeting, added Dhakal, will most likely form committees to oversee the party activities collectively. Senior journalist Babin Sharma, who closely follows the politics of the Maoist party, said while Pun and Sharma are competing for the party leadership, Gurung, a general secretary picked by Dahal himself, could lead the party affairs. He said Gurung has a fairly good command in the party for the job. But central committee member Ramdeep Acharya has a different take on the issue of picking the next Maoist party leader. He said there are different modalities of the leadership selection process, so one cannot be certain as to who will replace Dahal. Acharya added Dahal selecting his successor is one of the modalities but there are other ways too. Whoever comes forward to lead the party, they will have big shoes to fill.
Will Congress get the presidency?
The Nepali Congress is desperate to get the presidency after the CPN-UML’s Dev Raj Ghimire was elected the speaker of parliament on Jan 19. The NC leaders are of the view that the UML cannot have both speaker and president, as it goes against the idea of separation of powers. The next president, they say, should be from their party, or at least, someone proposed by them. As part of a power-sharing deal, CPN (Maoist Center) has agreed to lead the coalition government for 2.5 years before ceding the prime minister’s office to UML. A midterm transition of power means the UML will eventually head the executive as well as the legislature. Under such a circumstance, the NC reckons they cannot allow the UML to have the presidency as well. NC spokesperson Prakash Sharan Mahat has warned that the country could plunge into a constitutional crisis if all the vial positions are occupied by the UML. He has said it is time for Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal to prove that he stands in favor of separation of powers and the constitution. Like the NC, the Maoist party too is concerned about giving all vital positions to the UML. Dahal is wary that UML leader KP Sharma Oli could become all-powerful and sideline him. The prime minister has said that he is working to bring the NC on board for presidential election, but has not explicitly stated that he would support the NC candidate. When Dahal took a vote of confidence in the House of Representatives on Jan 10, the NC had backed him with the hope that their gesture would be reciprocated in the form of either speakership or presidency. With the UML winning the speaker’s seat, the NC hopes to get Prime Minister Dahal’s support on the day the parliament elects the new president of the country next month. But so far there has been no confirmation from the prime minister, and some NC leaders, including Shekhar Koirala, are already regretting the decision to give the trust vote to Dahal. NC leader Sher Bahadur Deuba and his supporters, however, are still hopeful that they will succeed to get the presidency and drive a wedge between the Maoists and the UML. Two probable presidential candidates from the NC are Ram Chandra Poudel and Krishna Prasad Sitaula. Poudel has been in constant touch with Prime Minister Dahal as well as Chairman of CPN (Unified Socialist) Madhav Kumar Nepal to seek their support in his presidential bid. Sitaula, who closely worked with the Maoists during the peace and constitution drafting processes, is regarded as a suitable candidate whom Dahal would have no trouble supporting. By securing the presidency, the NC wants to create a rift between the Maoists and the UML, two of the largest leftist parties in the country. Some Maoist leaders are of the view that the party could break alliance with the UML if NC comes up with a credible long-term vision of partnership between the NC and the Maoists. A Maoist leader, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said first the NC should come up with a concrete view that it wants to be in a continued alliance with the Maoists for at least next five to ten years. A section of the Maoist leaders want to enter a long-term alliance with the NC also because they want to settle the war-era cases with little damage to the party. With the NC as their ally, they reckon they could work out a way to investigate and prosecute only those cases related to serious human rights violations and secure clemency for others. The Maoist leader said since NC is a democratic party trusted by the international community, its credentials could be instrumental in settling the war-era cases. Haribol Gajurel, Dahal’s political advisor, has said the prime minister is working to forge a consensus among major parties in the presidential election. He added consensus building is imperative because some major tasks of the peace process still remain unsettled and the constitution is yet to be fully implemented. For the Maoist party, the NC’s role is important to conclude the transitional justice process as soon as possible. There are geopolitical interests regarding the presidential election in Nepal. The positions of prime minister and president have emerged as parallel power centers, and foreign powers could serve their interests through the president if not the prime minister. So there is also a chance that the new president could be an individual recommended by the NC and not necessarily the party leader.
US power gambit in South Asia to offset China’s influence
On January 12, the United States and Japan jointly organized the fifth Indo-Pacific Business Forum in a hybrid formation in Tokyo. According to the US Department of State, more than 140 in-person and 1,000 virtual business and government leaders from the US and Japan, economies of the Indo-Pacific region, and countries around the world participated in the meeting. The IPBF is a vital pillar of America’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, which envisions a free, open, connected and resilient Indo-Pacific region. An IPBF meeting is a routine program that has been taking place for a couple of years now. The previous meeting was held in 2021, and co-hosted by the US and India. It was the first IPBF meeting in South Asia. Unlike the previous government under Donald Trump, which took a more confrontational approach to China, the Joe Biden administration has framed the implementation of IPS focusing more on economy and through its allies and partners. In February 2022, President Biden introduced a new IPS, which replaced the document unveiled by his predecessor in 2019. In line with the new US strategy, South Korea earlier this month unveiled its own IPS, which aligns to the American policy of containing China’s rise in the region. In the recent months, the US and its IPS allies have stepped up their engagements in the region with new policies and programs. The latest instance is of the IPBF, which includes several countries in South Asia including Nepal, making new announcements targeting the region. First is the US Trade and Development Agency’s call for infrastructure activities that support the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework pillars of advancing digital infrastructures, promoting clean energy, and strengthening supply chains. The second proposal is to expand the agency’s portfolio in the Pacific Island countries. The Tokyo meeting also decided that the IPEF Infrastructures Accelerator Team would work across US government agencies and like-minded IPEF partners to identify and define bankable projects that can unlock new public and private funding. The team is set to visit India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Fiji and Vietnam in the near future. “The Indo-Pacific is core to our mission,” declared Scott Nathan, CEO of US International Development Finance Corporation, in his opening remarks of the IPBF meeting. “We have over 6.6 billion dollars in active commitment throughout the region. And just this past year we committed more than two billion dollars to a diverse set of nearly 50 transactions that bolster economic growth and development across a range of sectors,” he added. This shows that the US is eager to gain a strategic one-upmanship over China when it comes to holding clout over South Asia. “Washington's acknowledgement of the Indo-Pacific as the fastest growing and most dynamic region in the world continues to serve as a catalyst for its desire to strengthen ties with allies and strategic partners of the region,” says Don McLain Gill, director for South and Southeast Asia at the Philippine-Middle East Studies Association. “Inevitably, the key driver for US interest in the region is China's rise and its dissatisfaction with the US leadership and the alliance network.” While US material capacity and hard power are unmatched, Gill says, its image continues to face challenges, particularly among regional states. “Moreover, the speed of China's military modernization also creates problems for the US' ability to secure the established rules-based order.” Recognizing this, the US engagement in the Indo-Pacific should be seen through the prism of the region's emerging multipolar dimensions, which have bolstered Washington's coordination with like-minded powers such as Japan and India. “Along with the preponderance of the US material capabilities, Washington's Indo-Pacific engagements also rest on maximizing the function of its bilateral and multilateral partnerships to add more value and dynamism to its approach towards the region,” says Gill. American officials have said that they will further enhance the engagement in this region in 2023. In the words of Kurt Campbell, Biden’s Indo-Pacific Coordinator: “America and allies are looking at India as a country they want to draw more into the Indo-Pacific.” "Our interests are to see India playing an ever larger, responsible role in almost everything that we're doing," Campbell said in an event in Tokyo. Neeraj Singh Manhas, director of Research in the Indo-Pacific Consortium at Raisina House, New Delhi, says in the past few months the US engagement in the region is increasing, and it is also using economic and grey zone coercion tactics. According to his reading, Washington has been renewing innovation and developing new concepts of operations as well as resilient command structures, prioritizing the network of allies and partners, fostering interlinking security ties, countering the trafficking of weapons, drugs and people, and improving cyber-security in the Indo-Pacific region. In Nepal, too, the US is stepping up its economic engagement. In September last year, the USAID and the Ministry of Industry and Commerce jointly launched a trade and competitiveness or T&C project. The overall goal of the project is to increase inclusive and broad-based sustained free and fair trade as well as competitiveness in the Indo-Pacific region. The project falls under the broader framework of the IPS, but the ministry has said that the project launch does not make Nepal a part of the IPS, and that it will only play the role of an advisor to the program. Similarly, in May last year, Nepal-US signed a grant agreement of $659 to support Nepal’s goal to be a middle-income country. It is noteworthy that the US, along with 13 countries in South Asia, launched the IPEF that same month to advance resilience, sustainability, inclusiveness, economic growth, fairness, and competitiveness in the region. The US officials are in talks with the countries in the region that have not yet officially joined the framework. They are conveying the message that the US wants South Asian countries to be part of all components of IPS. Those countries that are not part of the IPS regard it as a military alliance. As a result, opinions are divided whether to join or stay out. Bangladesh has recently informed the US that it needs some time to study the IPEF before coming to a decision. The IPS remains a highly divisive issue in Nepal as well. That is why the official documents and US officials rarely mention IPS while announcing or implementing the programs under it. Perhaps the word ‘Strategy’ has created doubt. As the US Ambassador to Nepal Dean Thomas recently said that it is better to call it “Indo-Pacific Policy” instead of strategy. New Commercial Initiatives in Indo-Pacific -In October 2022, Honda and LG Energy Solution announced they will build a $3.5 bn EV battery plant in Ohio that will create at least 2,200 new jobs. -In July 2022, Panasonic announced a $4 bn investment in batteries in Kansas that will hire as many as 4,000 people. -In April 2022, Toyota announced a major investment in sustainable transportation with an investment of $383m across four US plants to support fuel-efficient hybrid vehicles and build the workforce of the future. -In 2021, Japan announced additional budget to develop its semiconductor industry, and supported several new projects in 2022, including:
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) and Sony received $3.5 billion in support for a joint venture to build a new chip fabrication plant.
- Kioxia Corp. and US firm Western Digital Corp. received $680m for a semiconductor production facility.
- Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry agreed to provide $320m in investment support to US semiconductor manufacturer Micron to accelerate the manufacturing ramp up of advanced chips at its Hiroshima facility.
Moribund SAARC stares at another crisis
The latest summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation was held in Kathmandu in 2014. The next iteration of the biennial regional meeting was supposed to be hosted by Pakistan in Islamabad, but it was postponed indefinitely due to the India-Pakistan tensions. In the nearly four-decade-long SAARC history, this is the first time the summit-level meeting has not taken place for a long time. As though the India-Pakistan rivalry was not enough, Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in 2021 has further pushed SAARC’s future into uncertainty. While there has been no summit-level meeting in more than eight years, the SAARC Secretariat in Kathmandu has been conducting its activities, including holding ministerial-level meetings of the member states in a bid to revive the moribund regional body. Even during the Covid-19 pandemic, SAARC representatives made it a point of holding virtual meetings. But now SAARC stares at another potential crisis in a form of leadership vacuum, as the incumbent Secretary General Esala Ruwan Weerakoon approaches the end of his term. Weerakoon, who assumed office on 1 March 2020, will complete his term in March this year. To date there has not been any decision about his successor. This is because it is now Afghanistan’s turn to send a new secretary general. Like the international community, the SAARC member nations have not recognized the Talibans as the legitimate government of Afghanistan. As a SAARC chair, Nepal has been holding consultations with member states to find a solution, albeit without any progress. As the member countries, primarily India, have not shown any interest, Nepal’s efforts alone cannot yield any results. Despite the stalemate-like situation, a couple of options are under discussion. First, asking Bangladesh to recommend secretary general by skipping Afghanistan by rule of alphabetical order. A source at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said as Afghanistan’s nomination cannot be accepted under current circumstances, asking Bangladesh to send its representative can be one of the options. The second option is for Nepal, as a SAARC chair, sending a secretary general—most likely a senior official working at the secretariat— until the new arrangement is made. However, as per SAARC charter, all decisions should be taken in consensus. This means a decision taken without Afghanistan’s consent could create a question of legitimacy. Experts say SAARC’s relevance is dying also because India, as the most powerful and influential member state, has turned its back on the regional body and shifted its focus on other regional organizations, like BIMSTEC. Shambhu Ram Simkhada, former Nepali ambassador to the United Nations, is of the view that as a SAARC chair, Nepal should play a proactive role to revive SAARC. He said since some big member countries do not seem interested in keeping the SAARC alive, Nepal has to make its position clear. He added that Nepal’s political leadership should take up this issue with the leadership of other member countries. Initiatives taken from the bureaucratic level, according to Simkhada, cannot yield any substantial result. Some officials want Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal to raise the issue of SAARC with his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi and other senior government officials during his India visit. They also want Foreign Minister Bimala Rai Poudel to do her part. Among other tasks, she also has the responsibility of resolving the problem faced by SAARC. Nepal has always been a strong proponent of regionalism and it was one of the chief architects of SAARC. The country should not give up on the regional body that easily.
What does Dahal want?
Soon after the Nov 20 elections, there were unfounded media reports on some external forces lobbying for the appointment of former Cabinet head Khilraj Regmi as the new president. Around the same time, the rumor mill was also throwing the names of former chief justice Kalyan Shrestha and prominent social worker Anuradha Koirala as the potential presidential candidates. Neither the media nor the public figured out which external forces, if there were any, and with what motive were trying to appoint an apolitical figure as the head of the state. The rumor mill stopped churning when CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal on Dec 25 sought CPN-UML’s support to form a new government and in return vowed to support the UML candidate in the presidential election. Ever since it has been widely accepted that the UML would once again get the country’s top position. The UML leaders are openly saying that Prime Minister Dahal has agreed to grant the presidency to their party. But, Dahal has again cast uncertainty on the issue. On Sunday, the prime minister told a group of editors that there hasn’t been any written agreement with the UML regarding the House speaker and president’s posts. Did Dahal, in a desperate bid to lead the government, agree to offer all vital positions to the UML, without thinking of its long-term repercussions? After all, the Maoist-UML coalition was hastily formed, defying expectations of media pundits and the general public, who were certain about the continuity of the Maoist-Nepali Congress coalition. The NC, the largest party in the House of Representatives, is not in the current seven-party ruling coalition, but it has—again defying general expectations—backed the Dahal government, rendering the House without an official opposition party. Clearly, the NC leadership expects Dahal to reciprocate to its unsolicited support by offering either the presidency or speakership. Dahal has said that the onus lies on him to bring the NC on board. But his attempt at keeping the NC happy has also created misunderstanding between the Maoists and its main coalition partner, UML. Within weeks into his premiership, Dahal has put himself in an awkward position. On Tuesday, after meeting with the newly appointed Chinese Ambassador Chen Song, Dahal reverted to his previous remarks saying that he remains committed to the agreements with UML. Later that same day, he organized an all-party meeting to give an impression to the NC that he was in favor of sharing the vital positions among the parties. Dahal is notorious for being a political flip-flopper, and he seems to be at it again. KP Sharma Oli, the UML leader, for the time being, is maintaining his cool, for he believes that giving continuity to the current coalition best serves his party’s interests. Oli is savoring his role as the kingmaker and he has been meeting Dahal on a regular basis. At this point, the only explanation behind Dahal’s behavior is that he wants to keep the NC by his side as his safety net, in case the UML were to withdraw support to his government. That way, Dahal could work out a power-sharing deal with the NC and give continuity to the Maoist-led government. One can see that Dahal’s distrust toward Oli also stems from the way their relationship evolved between 2018 and 2021 when they were the co-chairs of the erstwhile Nepal Communist Party (NCP). The UML-Maoist merger had ended in a disaster, creating intense rivalry between the two leaders. While the Maoist and the UML have finalized the power-sharing deals in seven provinces, they are yet to decide on president, vice president and speaker. By leaning toward the NC, Prime Minister Dahal is probably trying to improve his bargaining leverage before the UML. If the UML were to get the presidency and speakership, Dahal’s party would be left with nothing once his term ends after 2.5 years and Oli takes over. The Maoists, NC and other fringe parties know very well that if the UML got both presidency and speakership, then in 2.5 years there will be a one-party-like system. External forces are closely watching how Dahal will hash out the challenges of making appointments to these key positions. The experience of the past five years has shown that the posts of president and speaker could influence or strike down the decisions of the executive. There have been instances of external powers knocking the door of the president to fulfill their interests, if the prime minister is not cooperating. With the UML unwilling to share the two key positions, Prime Minister Dahal’s efforts to offer either presidency or speakership to the NC are likely to go to waste. He tried and failed on Wednesday to forge a consensus on the appointment of the speaker. With his feet in two boats, Dahal is trying to sail through rough political waters. It remains to be seen how far this ride will last.
Dahal’s immediate external challenges
Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal has won a vote of confidence from nearly every member in the 275-strong parliament. However dubious it may seem across the democratic world, Nepal now has a coalition government without any official opposition. The newly appointed prime minister from the CPN (Maoist Center) is now all set to give a full shape to his government and get into the business of governing. A committee of the seven-party ruling coalition has already prepared a policy document or the common minimum program, outlining the government’s priorities for the next five years. The document will serve as a blueprint to drive the country forward economically, socially and politically. It also includes the government’s foreign policy priorities. How Nepal deals with the external world, more specifically with India, China, and the US, will be a key determinant of its success or failure in the coming years. The common minimum program mentions the government’s foreign policy priorities in a vague way. It speaks about non-alignment approach and maintaining balanced ties, which offers no insight into how the government will go about finding the diplomatic equipoise. This issue begs clear articulation at a time when India, China and the US are trying to spread the scope of their influence in South Asia. The three countries are expecting early decisions from the new government on some of their key agendas. India wants an early decision on its Agnipath scheme concerning recruitment of Nepali as well as Indian youths in its security forces for a certain period. The previous government led by Sher Bahadur Deuba had put the issue on hold, stating that the new government would take a decision. An Indian official said the plan cannot be delayed for an indefinite period. The recruitment program by the Narendra Modi government has become a divisive topic in India as well as in Nepal, as it offers a military service period of only four years. There are concerns about the future of Agnipath retirees while some have even raised the alarm about dangers of letting military trained youths into civilian life, especially if they do not find other job opportunities. If the Nepal government opts out of Agnipath, the official said the seats reserved for Nepali would be provided to Indian nationals. With China, the new government needs to take the decision on whether or not to be part of Xi Jinping’s Global Security Initiative and Global Development Initiative. There are also the projects under the Belt and Road Initiative. Foreign policy experts consider these initiatives as China’s way of building a new world order, an antidote to the US global dominance. Chinese diplomats have already started to claim that Nepal is already part of these initiatives, even though the Nepal government has not taken any official decision. As a country sharing a border with China and India, Nepal is of strategic interest not just to Beijing and New Delhi, but also Washington. As China-US geopolitical rivalry peaks in South Asia, they are after building ally countries in the region. Washington wants an environment conducive for the implementation of Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) projects, which has two components. The first one is the construction of a transmission line and another is an upgrade of road networks. Beijing has already raised objections to Nepal signing the compact. Protests have erupted in Nuwakot and Dang, which has alarmed the Americans. US Ambassador to Nepal Dean Thomson recently told the media that the implementation of MCC projects remains a key concern in America and they are concerned about the protests. Besides ensuring successful implementation of the MCC projects, the Dahal government must also decide on America’s State Partnership Program, which too was put on hold by the previous administration. It will be an enormous decision, with a potential to make Nepal a friend or a foe of Washington and Beijing. In his previous tenure in 2016-2017, Dahal had sent special envoys—Bimalendra Nidhi and Krishna Bahadur Mahara—to New Delhi and Beijing—signaling that he wants to maintain a balanced relationship. But he eventually ended up angering New Delhi and Washington by signing up for the BRI and deciding to hold joint military drills with China. With India, China and the US breathing down the neck to fulfill their strategic interests, it remains to be seen how the Dahal government will apply its policy of maintaining balanced ties. The common minimum program offers no clues.
Nepal, China prepare for high-level visits
Nepal-China bilateral cooperation has gathered momentum with the easing of zero-covid policy in China. This could also be due to the fact that Nepal recently formed a new government under Pushpa Kamal Dahal of CPN (Maoist Center). From January 8, China opened its border for international travelers. With this, officials say, Nepal-China interactions, which were largely limited to virtual platforms, are all set to take place in-person. The two countries have also resumed two-way trade, but there are still some bottlenecks when it comes to export of Nepali products to China. After the outbreak of covid, air connectivity between the two countries came to a standstill, except for some cargo and special flights. Now, preparations are underway to resume the commercial flights between the two countries. Nepal’s Ambassador to China Bishnu Pukar Shrestha said starting Jan 17, direct flights Himalayan Airlines will resume direct flights from Beijing to Kathmandu. He added preparations are also on for conducting additional flights. Meanwhile, Nepal and China have also begun preparations for high-level visits in the next couple of months. A diplomatic source told ApEx that Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is likely to visit China at the end of March to participate in the Boao Form for Asia. The newly appointed Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang has already begun diplomatic trips and he is likely to visit South Asian countries soon. The source said the Chinese foreign minister could visit Kathmandu too. A high-level Chinese delegation is also expected to visit Nepal to convey Beijing’s message to the new government. Ambassador Shrestha said efforts would be made for high-level exchange of visits in 2023. He added the two countries would resume the exchange of visits between government delegations, think-tank representatives, academicians, media persons, students and artists. Nepal and China are also preparing to resume in-person meetings of bilateral mechanisms. A Chinese team is already in Kathmandu for the feasibility study of the Kathmandu-Kerung railway.
First House meeting fails to sow seed of hope for stability
A hung parliament with a third-placed party leading a shaky coalition, and the lawmakers of the party with the most number of seats sulking on the opposition benches. Thus convened the first session of the House of Representatives on Monday. The whole affair was unremarkable and offered little to be optimistic about—not even the address by Rabi Lamichhane, home minister and leader of Rastriya Swatantra Party, the flag bearer of independent political force, could elevate the mood. The Nov 20 parliamentary election has produced a fractured mandate, and it is up to Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of CPN (Maoist Center) to figure out the course of action while also making sure the coalition does not break. Dahal knows what he is up against. He rightly pointed out that his government would be tested and judged based on its delivery of good governance. He talked about bringing genuine change in people’s lives, but offered no prescriptions. The prime minister’s address didn’t instill hope. Perhaps, he was being honest, because it would be a folly to presume that the next five years will be stable. As part of a power-sharing deal, Dahal has agreed to cede the office of the prime minister to the CPN-UML after 2.5 years. Opposition leader Sher Bahadur Deuba’s address was dull and generic. The former prime minister appeared subdued and said that his party, Nepali Congress, would play a constructive role as an opposition. Leaders of all major political parties stuck to general political speech, covering commonplace topics, like challenges faced by the country, the need for good governance and about honoring people’s aspiration of real change. The topic of stable government remained the unaddressed elephant in the room. But plenty of inferences could be drawn. UML leader KP Oli, for instance, cautioned Prime Minister Dahal about the bumpy road ahead. In a veiled reference to the NC, he also said that breaking the current coalition would be unwise. Oli telling the parties not to engage in power game and be united for the sake of the country was him pointing at the current political mess and volatility of the coalition government—it was not an appeal. More tellingly and rather inauspiciously, the UML leader also brought up his own experience as a prime minister and his two unsuccessful attempts at dissolving the previous parliament. He not only defended his move, he also chided the parties who opposed him as regressive elements. The regressive elements Oli was talking about included his current coalition partner Maoist, the opposition NC, and UML splinter CPN (Unified Socialist). Clearly, none was pleased with Oli’s remarks, while the UML lawmakers banged their desks in approval. NC General Secretary Gagan Thapa later told the media that Oli’s claim over his move to dissolve the previous parliament could once again tear the Maoists and UML apart. Noting that the two communist forces have entered a coalition partnership without addressing the major bone of contention that broke them up last time, Thapa said that the very issue could sow division in the future. There is not much for people to hope from a divided parliament and unstable government. All in all, it’s business as usual in Nepali politics.
