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What should be the size of the army in a country like Nepal?  Before the Maoist insurgency began in 1996, there were approximately 60,000 personnel in the Nepali Army. The number was significantly increased to fight the Maoist insurgents, and today the NA is 96,477 strong. In 2001, the government also founded the Armed Police Force, which acted as a paramilitary unit, to support counterinsurgency operations. 

Talks about resizing or ‘rightsizing’ the NA first found prominence after the Maoists joined the peace process with the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2006. At the time, it was the right thing to do, since the former Maoist fighters were also being integrated into the national army, which would have increased the troop numbers and the budget.  

The CPA says: “... This includes, among other things, rightsizing, democratic restructuring reflecting the national and inclusive character and imparting training to the Nepali Army on the values of democracy and human rights.”  While the inclusive component of the CPA has already been implemented by the NA, the parts about rightsizing and restructuring have not. 

The size of the military has once again entered the national debate, and the NA is not taking it lightly. Responding to some media reports and opinion pieces, Army chief Prabhu Ram Sharma in March blamed “outsiders” for making comments about the required NA troop numbers. He didn’t name any particular individual or institution, but hinted that these “outsiders” were acting on the behest of foreign countries.

A few days back, the issue about the size of the Army was brought up in the National Assembly by CPN-UML lawmaker Bimala Rai Paudyal. Addressing the assembly, she said that there must be a review on whether the Ministry of Defense needs the current size of the national army.
“There aren’t any internal conflicts and there aren’t any chances of war from our neighbors,” argued Paudyal, also a former foreign minister.
Her remarks didn’t go down well with the military circle, as well as some politicians. Paudyal faced strong criticism, including from former Army generals, for stoking an unnecessary debate. 

Those against the idea of revising the size of the NA are of the view that this is not the right time to be debating about the issue. 

But Paudyal remains firm on her position. “Shouldn’t we evaluate the current scenario?” she says. “It is not necessarily a call for downsizing the army, but rather a suggestion to review whether to downsize or upsize the army.”   

She asks why there should be a controversy whenever we raise military matters. “These issues warrant serious deliberations and extensive research, especially considering our transition to federalism and the emergence of heightened border security threats,” says Paudyal. “Perhaps, we may even require a stronger army.”

The debate on the size of the NA is not a new one; it is a part of the CPA signed between the government and the Maoist party. The Interim Constitution 2007 had also mentioned about the size and democratization of the national army. The part 20 of Interim Constitution states talks about determining the appropriate number of the Army, its democratic structuring and inclusivity.  

In 2009, the Ministry of Defense had formed a committee to suggest ways for the democratization of the NA, but the report was never made public.

In compliance to the Nepali law which states that 45 percent of all vacant government positions be reserved for excluded groups, the Army in 2006, amended its Army Act. As per the amendment, out of the 45 percent reserved position within the NA, 20 percent of the seats are reserved for women, 32 percent for Janajati, 28 percent for Madhesi, 15 percent for Dalit and 5 percent for remote regions. But as far as the issue of rightsizing is concerned, there have been discussions in the academic sector but not at the state-level.

The Maoist party, which vehemently raised the issue of resizing the NA during the time of peace process, seems to have abandoned the topic now. As per the Maoist party’s demand, the Nepali Congress and UML too had agreed to mention this issue in the CPA, much to the displeasure of the Army. 

Deepak Prakash Bhatta, a security expert, says there can be discussions on resizing the NA only if the political parties, not individual leaders, officially make the position on it.  “Some people have spoken about it, but what is the position of political parties?” says Bhatta.

Both incumbent and retired NA officials suspect that some “foreign powers” are fuelling the debate.
One retired NA official says the NA does not have any objection to such a debate, but the recent noise about reviewing the size of the national army lacks maturity. “This is a very sensitive and comprehensive issue which requires in-depth study and deliberations,” he says.  

Purna Chandra Silwal, retired major general of the NA, says in a precarious geopolitical scenario marked, among others, by the Ukraine war and increasing Sino-Indian hostilities, countries have become more serious than ever before about their existence as their ballooning defense spending shows. “But, paradoxically, some of our leaders and opinion-makers are calling for downsizing of the national army,” he adds.

Major political parties have so far chosen to steer clear from the debate. UML senior leader Shanker Pokhrel says this is “an ill-timed debate” because we are passing through a political instability, and anarchism is creeping into society. “The size of Nepali Army is not only related to security aspects but also the international peace mission,” says Pokhrel.  

The current debate on the sizing of NA itself is problematic because it is too focused on downsizing it, instead of holding discussions on determining the right size. There could be discussions about the size of the army, experts say, but it can be decided only after assessing the long-term internal and external threats. Of late, beyond providing security, NA is also engaged in big development projects as well. 

Krishna Prasad Bhandari, NA spokesperson, says the Army is aware and informed about the ongoing discussions about the national army.  “The Nepal Army has been effectively and successfully performing the tasks provided by the government and mentioned in the constitution,” he says. 

Defense Minister Purna Bahadur Khadka has also defended the current number of NA in Parliament.  Speaking in the meeting of National Assembly Khadka on Thursday, he said the number of the army is determined on the basis of the country's geographical location, national necessity and current international scenario. He also said it is the government who decides the number of military personnel based on the recommendation of the National Security Council. 

Foreign Minister NP Saud and his Indian counterpart S Jaishankar held a meeting in Bangkok, Thailand on Monday.

The duo held the meeting while taking part in the meeting of foreign ministers of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) member countries.

Both sides said that the meeting held during the two-day meeting of the foreign ministers of BIMSTEC in Bangkok was productive.

External Affairs Minister of India S Jayshankar said that the meeting with his Nepali counterpart was fruitful.

After the meeting, he said that India is ready to work with Nepal on the issues of mutual interest.

Chief Secretary Dr Baikuntha Aryal has directed various ministries and line secretaries to effectively implement budget, policies and programs for the current fiscal year 2023/24 and formulate plans accordingly.

In a meeting held at Singha Durbar on the first day of the current FY, he also directed the clearance of the arrears to effectively achieve the goals set by the government, said a secretary, who participated in the meeting.

The meeting also focused on resolving problems revolving around the bureaucracy to make it more credible, he said.

Donald Lu, the US assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asian Affairs, visited Nepal this week to take stock of the progress on the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC).

The US embassy in Kathmandu said Lu’s visit was a part of his regular diplomatic engagement in the region. In Kathmandu, he met with various leaders and ministers to discuss the progress on the MCC Compact to date.

The Compact has two components: construction of a transmission line and road maintenance. The transmission line project under the MCC envisions construction of  around 315 km of double circuit high capacity 400 kV transmission lines and three new electricity substations. The transmission line will pass through Kathmandu, Sindhupalchok, Nuwakot, Dhading, Makwanpur, Chitwan, Tanahun, Palpa, Nawalpur, and Parasi districts. 

Similarly, the road maintenance project will focus on the East-West Highway in Dang district. Based on the results of the pilot, MCA-Nepal will further complete the Lamahi to Shivakhola section. At present, the total road segment proposed for maintenance in the East-West Highway is approximately 77 km.

These projects are set to commence in August with a five-year completion deadline or by 2028. The projects will be executed by Millennium Challenge Accounts Nepal (MCA-Nepal).

Lu had played a vital role in getting the MCC endorsed through Nepal’s parliament. Nepal’s political parties were heavily divided on the issue of ratifying the Compact through parliament. Those against the Compact, mostly communist parties, had raised unfounded suspicion that the US was trying to deploy its army in Nepal in order to contain China.

The Compact was ultimately endorsed by Nepal’s parliament with declarative interpretation (which the US has not recognized) amid protests in the streets, as Lu had warned that the US could review its relationship with Nepal if the MCC was discarded. 

China too was against the MCC ratification, and had openly fallen out with the US on the issue. Beijing suspects that the Compact is part of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy to stop China’s growing influence.  

Though Nepal’s parliament has passed the MCC, the US is still not wholly convinced it will move ahead smoothly. This skepticism is not just born out of continuing political opposition to the MCC in Nepal, but also of the technical hurdles at the local level.     

The main hurdle, according to an official at the Ministry of Finance, is land acquisition for the transmission line project. In some areas, people are urging the MCA-Nepal to change the route of the transmission line because it falls right over their homes and farmland, which they are unwilling to let go. The modality of compensation for acquiring land has also not been finalized yet.  

In April, Khadga Bahadur Bisht, executive director of MCA-Nepal, had informed the meeting of the MCA-Nepal board of directors that a technical survey of the electricity transmission line was completed, except on some segments due to social issues. Three months later, the problem remains as it is.

There is a lack of cooperation between MCA-Nepal office and Nepal government officials to resolve the local and technical issues. The task of land acquisition is being undertaken by district administration offices.

Regarding the land acquisition, field verification is going on in seven districts, except in Nuwakot, Sindhupalchok and Kathmandu. With the MCC implementation set to come into force in August, the task is unlikely to be completed on time.

There is also the task of forest census, which too remains incomplete. Forest clearance is one complicated task which needs to be settled in coordination with the Ministry of Forest and Environment and its subordinates. Here too the MCA-Nepal office has been unable to coordinate effectively with the concerned forest offices.

CPN-UML leader Pradeep Gyawali, who is also former foreign minister, says the MCC should be implemented honoring the deadline without any obstructions as it has already been endorsed by the Parliament.

However, both government and MCA-Nepal officials are uncertain about timely completion of the projects. They are brainstorming whether to commence the project in August and gradually complete the remaining tasks or commence the work only after all outstanding problems have been settled. 

Despite the challenges and risks, one official said MCA-Nepal has fixed August end as an entry into force date for the MCC.  

The MCC Nepal Compact is a five-year $500 million grant agreement signed between Nepal government and the MCC in 2017. The Nepal government has agreed to invest an additional $197m in the program, for a total of $697m.

Initially, the project should have come into implementation in 2018 which was delayed by four years due to the controversy surrounding its parliamentary endorsement. 

Mrigendra Bahadur Karki, Executive Director, Center for Nepal and Asian Studies, says the central focus of the US in Nepal at the moment is smooth implementation of the MCC. 

He adds since the MCC was protested by internal and external forces, the US is worried that the same forces would not delay its implementation. 

Currently, there seems to be no significant political opposition to the MCC, but technical issues at the local level are likely to delay the project. In case of a delay, the MCC project cost is likely to increase and may require additional Rs 5bn to complete, say some officials.