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Ahead of the crucial March 5 elections, Nepal’s largest political party, the Nepali Congress (NC), has plunged into a deep internal crisis following a formal split. The rupture has thrown the electoral process into uncertainty and exposed a widening generational divide within the party. Two rival factions—one led by party president Sher Bahadur Deuba and the other by General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa—are now locked in a legal and constitutional battle for legitimacy. Gagan Thapa is 49 years old, while the current party president, Sher Bahadur Deuba, is nearing 80.

The establishment faction has expelled  Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma, accusing them of organizing a special convention in violation of the party statute. In response, the Thapa-led faction has claimed overwhelming support within the party, asserting that it commands the backing of nearly 67 percent of the General Convention representatives. The faction has already elected a new Central Working Committee (CWC) through the convention and submitted its updated documentation to the Election Commission (EC), seeking official recognition.

The immediate authority to decide the party’s legitimacy lies with the Election Commission, which will examine the submitted documents and consult both factions. However, any party dissatisfied with the EC’s decision is almost certain to challenge it at the Supreme Court (SC), making the judiciary the ultimate arbiter. This legal uncertainty has placed the party—and the broader electoral process—in a precarious position.

At the heart of the split lies a generational conflict sharpened by the GenZ–led youth movement of Sept 8–9. Young leaders had demanded swift leadership change, greater internal democracy, and ownership of the reform agenda raised by youth activists. Instead of accommodating these demands, senior leaders who are above 70 years consolidated control, rejecting calls for a special convention despite provisions in the party statute. The refusal ultimately triggered the breakaway led by Thapa, symbolizing a broader struggle between reformist youth leaders and the party’s old guard.

The timing of the split is very meaningful. Candidate nominations under the Proportional Representation (PR) system have already been finalized and cannot be altered unless the entire electoral process is cancelled. Meanwhile, the deadline for nominations under the First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) system is just six days away, leaving the NC with only a narrow window to resolve its internal dispute and finalize candidates. Given the legal and constitutional complexities involved, it appears highly unlikely that the matter can be settled within the next four to five days.

If the dispute remains unresolved, both factions are expected to proceed independently, each claiming to be the legitimate Nepali Congress. This raises serious questions: Which faction will the EC recognize for electoral purposes? Can the EC and the government proceed with elections without the participation of the country’s largest party? Or will the election calendar have to be revised?

The EC is constrained by time. With less than 50 days remaining before the scheduled polls, extending deadlines or granting additional time may not be feasible. While elections could theoretically be postponed to April or May, such a move could invite constitutional challenges, as the current government is mandated to hold elections within six months of its formation.

If elections proceed as scheduled amid this chaos, the Nepali Congress is likely to suffer significant electoral damage. 

The Election Commission (EC) has explicitly stipulated the duties, responsibilities and authorities of the returning officers for the House of Representatives (HoR) elections announced for March 5.  

According to the EC-determined 'HoR Member Voting Directive, 2082', the returning officers, once appointed, shall participate in the election related training program and receive the election materials after verifications. 

Likewise, the directive has specified an arrangement that the election officers shall receive other election materials related to voters' ID card and polling centers after verifications. 

The returning officers shall reach the designated polling center and coordinate with the assistant returning officers, other staff, and security personnel assigned. 

The designated officer shall reach the stipulated site to set up the polling center, and in cases voting cannot take place at the assigned polling center due to security, geographical difficulties, or any other reasons, another polling center needs to be established immediately, the directive stated. 

And, this information shall be promptly conveyed to the chief election officer, it is noted. 

Voter identity cards must be distributed in advance before the polling day. 

Staff and volunteers assigned to the polling center must be allocated tasks and involved in the voting work. 

The directive has arranged that before giving the ballot paper to the voters, signatures must be placed on the ballots, and the polling process must be carried out efficiently with vigilance, monitoring of the polling activities, and informing the election officer about the activities on polling day from time to time. 

On voting day, the returning officer must inform various mobile teams, observers, journalists, facilitators, and security personnel coming to the polling center about the voting situation, ensure full compliance with the election code of conduct, prevent any illegal activities, and perform such tasks. 

Similarly, before and after voting, they must have the ballot boxes and other election materials properly documented and submit them securely to the election officer. 

Likewise, it is the duty of the returning officer to exercise the powers provided under the Election (Offenses and Punishment) Act, 2073 BS, and to ensure that the election is conducted in a free, fair, and independent manner. 

Nepal’s politics is heading toward a critical juncture. Old narratives are collapsing, but a new horizon is not yet clear.

For the past three decades, the reins of power in Nepal have revolved around a few leaders. At times, one would join another’s leadership; and at other times, one overthrow the other to ascend to power. This cycle brought deep frustration to the country rather than stability. Now, the political consciousness, from the streets of Kathmandu to the village squares, has fundamentally changed. An old era is now breathing its last breath, and the footsteps can be heard.

The three big powers— Nepali Congress (NC), the CPN-UML and Nepali Communist Party (NCP)— that have been determining the destiny of the country for years are now in the most serious existential crisis in their history. For decades, these parties only showed people dreams. But, they never showed any readiness to fulfill those dreams. The faces of those in power did not change. Only their power equations and working rooms changed.

History does not always move in the same rhythm. The GenZ movement seen in Sept 2025 proved to be a turning point in the history of Nepali politics. This movement was not limited to the demand for a change in the government, but was a collective mass uprising against institutional corruption, nepotism, favoritism, and incompetent leadership that had been entrenched for years. The anger that started from social media and spilled over to the streets changed the grammar of traditional politics.

That movement has given a clear message: Nepali people are now tired of the ‘farming of assurances’ that the parties do. The leaders who were called ‘liberators’ of yesterday are now looking like ‘exploiters’. The new generation is looking for an alternative to leadership. This movement has given a clear signal that today’s politics will not be based solely on the interests of heritage and history. Today’s politics demands positive results, ethics, and a new perspective.

Collapsed fortresses: The pathetic condition of the old parties

The leadership of NC is currently in crisis. The country’s oldest democratic party is now in an ideological vacuum. The factionalism within the party is no longer limited to positions, it has become a major battle for ‘generational transition’. Young leaders are no longer ready to carry the burden of the old and weak leadership. They know that if the leadership does not change, it will be difficult for the NC to preserve its historical existence in the 2025 elections.

Although discipline appears from the outside regarding the single leadership of KP Sharma Oli, a volcano of dissatisfaction is burning inside. After the dramatic collapse of the government in 2025, the ideological crisis in the party deepened. The slogan of ‘Prosperous Nepal’ alone is no longer enough to satisfy the cadres. Due to the leadership’s harsh style and tendency to prohibit new ideas, a large section of the UML is looking for an alternative.

The NCP is currently on the defensive. It has transformed itself with the merger of some other small communist parties under the banner of the Nepali Communist Party. As it falls into the clutches of power, the agenda and changes on which the party grew have all been lost. The Maoists are losing their ‘core’ public opinion by focusing more on the arithmetic of power than on the fundamental problems of the people. The party is now fragmenting into smaller factions and groups, diminishing its national influence.

Alliances without principles and economic laxity

The most tragic aspect of Nepal’s politics right now is the ‘death of principles’. There is no political basis for which party will align with whom at what time. One alliance is formed in the morning, another in the evening. These alliances are not for the development of the country, but are based on the interests of how to stay in power and how to manage the state treasury. While leaders are busy making and breaking crude alliances like houses of sand, the country’s economic indices are declining. Youth exodus is alarming. Inflation has reached the sky. Development construction works are at a standstill.

The conflict between new forces and old desires

The failure of old parties has created a playing field for new forces like the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP). But they do not seem to have the ability to understand the welfare state that the people want. Although the people see the new parties as hope, these parties also seem to be confused due to the lack of internal discipline, maturity and clear direction. The public is beginning to feel that there is no guarantee that the trend will change when a new face comes in.

Amidst this political confusion and instability, a small group is trying to revive the debate on the monarchy. This is more out of love for the monarchy than out of anger at the inaction of the current republican leaders. The people are not trying to reinstate the deposed king, but rather for stability, security, and a guardianship that will allow them to thrive in their own country. The current system has failed to fulfill this desire of the people.

While spontaneous change is naturally conducive to the country, time, and situation, the outcome of movements driven by the vested interests of external powers is always unfortunate. This eternal truth must be understood by those at the forefront of the process of giving and taking responsibility. The irony remains that this truth has always been pushed to the sidelines in critical moments of power transfer. The same happened in the recent turmoil in Nepal.

The election of March 2026: A litmus test for the system

The upcoming election in March 2026 is not just an ordinary periodic election. It is a major litmus test for the current political system and constitution of Nepal. If this election also repeats the old face and old trends, the people’s patience may break.

The path of Nepali politics in the coming time hinges on these three main questions.

The first is leadership. Some leaders of the old parties that have been in power for years are not very popular among the people now. Will those parties dare to bid farewell to their old leaders and bring forward new, educated and capable youth? This remains to be seen.

The second is the unity of new forces. Many new faces and parties have now entered politics. But will they remain divided into small groups or will they all become a strong force together? Only if they can unite will the country get a reliable alternative.

The third and most important thing is the problems of the people. In politics so far, there has been a lot of debate about which leader will get the chair. But in the upcoming elections, will we only talk about ‘who will become the Prime Minister’ or will we make the problems of the people like rising inflation, unemployment and increasing domestic production the main issues? The upcoming elections will either lead Nepal to a stable and prosperous path, or push it into a whirlpool of even greater political instability and conflict. This dirty game of power must end now. If the leaders fail to understand the footsteps of time, their names will be limited to the pages of history as ‘characters who spoiled the country’. The upcoming elections will decide not only the government, but also the future direction and condition of Nepal.

Prime Minister Sushila Karki has conveyed her best wishes, expressing hope that the Maghi or Makar Sankranti festival inspires everyone to come together and work towards peace, stability, and prosperity. 

Prime Minister Karki offered her greetings to all Nepali sisters and brothers, both at home and abroad, emphasizing the increased necessity for unity, harmony, and mutual trust among all. 

"Today signifies 1st Magh, Maghi, Makar Sankranti, Maghe Sakranti, although the names may differ, the core meaning remains the same," Prime Minister Karki remarked in a message posted on her social media platform Facebook mentioning that this festival promotes love, harmony, tolerance, and the spirit of unity among all Nepalis."