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Barring any dramatic political developments, Balendra Shah is poised to become Nepal’s next prime minister  following the strong electoral performance of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) in the March 5 election for the House of Representatives.

RSP Chairman Rabi Lamichhane and senior leader Shah have already begun receiving congratulatory messages from the international community after the party emerged as the largest force in parliament. 

Despite their rapid political rise, however, both leaders remain relatively inexperienced in the realm of foreign policy and international relations. 

Over the past three decades, a number of leaders have engaged with these countries, and vice versa. However, under Balen’s leadership, the situation will be entirely new. Aside from existing institutional memory, bilateral issues will be discussed afresh. 

Shah served as mayor of Kathmandu Metropolitan City for three years but engaged with the international community only in a limited capacity. During his tenure, he avoided several official visits to major countries and showed little interest in expanding international ties. Some of his remarks and decisions related to foreign countries also stirred controversy.

Lamichhane briefly headed the Ministry of Home Affairs, a role that gave him opportunities to meet foreign diplomats and visiting delegations in Kathmandu, providing him with some exposure to the concerns of major powers.

Although both leaders have spoken little about Nepal’s foreign policy, the RSP election manifesto offers clues about the priorities of a potential Shah-led government. The party advocates what it calls “balanced and dynamic diplomacy,” aiming to transform Nepal from a traditional buffer state into a “vibrant bridge” between its two giant neighbors — India and China — through strategic partnerships, connectivity and development cooperation. The party has also emphasized leveraging the economic rise of India and China to accelerate Nepal’s development.

 In the past three years, Shishir Khanal, who headed the party’s international department, often spoke publicly on foreign policy issues on behalf of the RSP. In talks with representatives of foreign countries, Khanal states that his party’s key priorities are good governance and economic prosperity, and that any dialogue with other countries should be based on these agenda.

During the same period, Swarnim Wagle, an RSP lawmaker, also commented frequently on foreign policy matters and is therefore likely to play a key role in shaping the foreign policy direction of the incoming government. For years, Wagle has argued that Nepal must better understand the aspirations and concerns of rising powers such as India and China. “Rising powers have legitimate interests and aspirations, and they also have certain red lines which we must understand,” Wagle has said in the past.

In a recent post on X following a phone conversation with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Lamichhane said the RSP-led government would prioritize development diplomacy. This suggests that Nepal’s primary engagement with major powers would focus on economic collaboration rather than broader strategic issues.

“We look forward to a partnership with India that scales new heights through cooperation in connectivity, cultural tourism, energy and trade, ensuring a prosperous future for the people of both countries,” Lamichhane wrote. Modi, in the same conversation, reaffirmed India’s commitment to working with Nepal’s incoming government on “mutual prosperity, progress and well-being.” He expressed confidence that bilateral ties would scale new heights in the coming years.

However, contentious issues such as the boundary dispute and the 1950 India-Nepal Treaty of Peace and Friendship are likely to resurface when Shah eventually visits New Delhi.  In his role as the mayor of Kathmandu Metropolitan City, he raised the issue regarding the map.  As in the past, the new government may face domestic pressure to raise these matters with India. Relations with New Delhi remain crucial for Nepal’s domestic political and economic stability. 

The United States also congratulated the Nepali people for holding the election and said it looked forward to working with the incoming government on the shared goals of prosperity and security. The reference to “security” has sparked debate within Nepal’s political and security circles. Washington appears eager to begin a new chapter in bilateral relations with a government led by younger leaders who are exposed to western values and culture. 

Ahead of the election, Samuel J. Paparo, commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command, visited Nepal and praised the country’s role in promoting regional stability, disaster preparedness and peacekeeping. Meanwhile, Bill Huizenga, chairman of the US House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on South and Central Asia, said recent elections in Nepal and Bangladesh present new opportunities for US engagement in South Asia.

At a congressional hearing on US policy in the region, Huizenga described South and Central Asia as a dynamic region where young populations are increasingly drawn to Western cultures and values. For the administration of Joe Biden, trade and security remain key priorities.

Following the 2025 September Gen Z movement that triggered the political upheaval, China initially remained largely silent. However, with the arrival of a new ambassador in Kathmandu, Beijing has become more vocal. China also congratulated Nepal on successfully conducting the election. 

Speaking at a press briefing on March 6, Mao Ning, spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry, said Beijing valued its traditionally friendly ties with Nepal and looked forward to strengthening the strategic partnership between the two countries. China’s key priorities include implementing agreements reached during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s 2019 visit to Nepal and advancing projects under the Belt and Road Initiative.

Although RSP leaders historically had limited engagement with major powers, international outreach toward the party increased after it emerged as the fourth-largest party in the 2022 general election. Senior RSP leaders have since visited India and held meetings with leaders of the Bharatiya Janata Party and Indian government officials.

China has also cultivated contacts with RSP leaders. In 2024, a 14-member delegation led by Wagle visited China but cut short the trip following Lamichhane’s arrest. Another senior RSP figure, Indira Rana, the former deputy speaker of the now-dissolved House of Representatives, frequently traveled to China and participated in programs organized by the Chinese embassy in Kathmandu.

As Nepal prepares for a possible political transition under a new generation of leaders, the coming months will test how the RSP balances relations with global and regional powers while pursuing its vision of development-driven diplomacy.

Pakistan congratulated Nepal on the successful completion of its elections.

Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar extended his heartiest congratulations to the people and the leadership of Nepal, according to the Embassy of Pakistan in Kathmandu.

In his message, the Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister said Pakistan deeply values its fraternal relations with Nepal and expressed hope that the two countries would continue to strengthen their longstanding friendship.

Dar also said he looks forward to working closely with his counterpart and the new government of Nepal to further enhance bilateral cooperation, explore new avenues of partnership, and promote regional peace and prosperity.

Prime Minister of Bhutan, Tshering Tobgay congratulated Rastriya Swantantra Party President Rabi Lamichhane and senior leader Balen Shah through social media for the victory in the election. 

Prime Minister Tobgay also mentioned that he is looking forward to working deeply, further deepening the warm friendship between the two countries with the government. ‘We look forward to further deepening the warm friendship between the two countries,’ he wrote in the congratulatory message.

The counting of votes cast under the proportional representation (PR) system for the House of Representatives (HoR) elections is underway.

As of 7:46 am today, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), which has so far won 125 seats, is also leading in the PR vote counts with a wide margin.

Out of 10,297,497 votes counted so far, the party has secured 4,951,964 votes.

Similarly, the Nepali Congress (NC) has achieved 1,674,940 votes while the CPN-UML garnered 1,390,293 and the Nepali Communist Party got 753,082. 

The Shram Sanskriti Party has collected 348,159 and the Rastriya Prajatantra Party achieved 322,604 votes.

As per the EC updates, the Janata Samajwadi Party Nepal secured 169,447 votes, the Rastriya Pariwartan Party 165,069 and the Janamat Party has achieved  75,486 votes.

Towards the direct electoral counts, the NC has been elected in 18 seats, UML in nine, NCP in eight, Shram Sanskriti in three, RPP and an independent candidate one each.