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The Election Commission (EC) has urged the Ministry of Home Affairs to take necessary measures to prevent any prohibited activities during the election period.

It has requested immediate action in accordance with existing laws if such activities are detected, along with a report to the Commission. 

In a press release, the Commission instructed the Ministry of Home Affairs to inform all Chief District Officers and security agencies to strictly adhere to the election code of conduct during the campaign prohibition period, which begins at 12:00 Midnight on March 4. 

The District Code of Conduct Monitoring Committee is tasked with deploying designated personnel and mechanisms to address violations of Section 24 of the Election (Offense and Punishment) Act, 2073, as well as Sections 17 and 18 of the Election Code of Conduct, 2082, and to report any actions taken. 

Additionally, the Commission has called for a ban on the sale, distribution, and consumption of intoxicants starting seven days before the voting date until the final election results are announced. "On voting day, all public and private vehicles, with the exception of those used for essential services (such as ambulances, fire trucks, hearses, blood transfusion service vehicles, security agency vehicles, electricity repair, drinking water and sewage repair vehicles, and telecommunication service maintenance vehicles), as well as vehicles from diplomatic missions and those with special passes for election day, will be prohibited from operating from 12:00 Midnight on March 4 until voting concludes on March 5," the Commission said.

Furthermore, the Commission clarified that arrangements will be made for international and domestic flights to continue operating as normal on voting day, allowing passengers with tickets for these flights to use vehicles provided by private parties or their respective airlines to travel from the airport to their homes or hotels.

As the countdown to federal elections begins, it has been reported that 359 polling stations in Karnali are classified as highly sensitive from a security standpoint. 

Jayaraj Sapkota, the Deputy Inspector General of Police and head of the Karnali Province Police Office in Surkhet, informed that out of the 10 districts in the province, 359 polling stations are highly sensitive, 422 are categorized as sensitive, and 160 are considered normal. 

In total, there are 959 polling stations in the province, which includes 941 permanent and 18 temporary stations. Among the 1,455 polling centres, 446 are identified as highly sensitive regarding security. 

Karnali comprises 12 constituencies for the House of Representatives. Surkhet and Dailekh each have two constituencies, while the remaining eight districts each have one constituency. 

The province has a total voter population of 1,037,800, with 54 rural municipalities and 25 municipalities.

The total number of temporary voters for the upcoming House of Representatives (HoR) elections has stood at 186,000. 

The temporary voters will use their franchise for the proportional representation system from the designated voting stations. 

Those enlisted in the voters' namelist but failing to appear at their polling stations for being deployed in the election or other reasons have been listed as the temporary voters. 

Those included in the temporary voters' list include the officials of the federal, province and local government, Nepal Army personnel, Nepal Police personnel, inmates and jailbirds, officials and security personnel deployed for the election and chiefs of the constitutional bodies and their office-bearers. 

Election Commission's Assistant Spokesperson Kul Bahadur GC said that a total of 143 voting stations have been determined for the temporary voters.

As the March 5 elections draw closer, debates and curiosity about the possible outcomes are intensifying. This election for the House of Representatives (HoR) is expected to be markedly different from previous ones due to several factors.

First, the elections are taking place against the backdrop of the Sept 8–9 GenZ movement, which toppled the powerful Nepali Congress-UML government. The main agenda of the movement was radical reform in key societal institutions, primarily targeting the state mechanism and political parties.

Second, for the first time in recent elections, youth engagement has been unusually high. Among around one million new voters, more than 80 percent are first-time voters, signaling a major shift in electoral dynamics.

Third, the anti-incumbency sentiment, which was relatively weak in the 2017 and 2022 elections, has now reached its peak, creating uncertainty for established parties.

Fourth, the emergence of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) adds another layer of unpredictability. From securing just 20 seats in the 2022 elections, the party—now allied with former Kathmandu Mayor Balendra Sah—has gained significant momentum, positioning itself as a serious contender.

Fifth, governance and reform have emerged as central electoral issues. In previous elections, these topics were not prime concerns. This time, however, they are expected to heavily influence voter decisions.

Sixth, the "new versus old" debate has intensified, with a strong narrative advocating that fresh leadership should be given the opportunity to implement a transformative agenda.

Seventh, geopolitics has become a prominent electoral issue, particularly highlighted by CPN-UML. Unlike other parties that focus on domestic issues, UML has emphasized external threats, suggesting that the September protests were backed by foreign forces aiming to destabilize Nepal. The party’s campaign materials raise concerns about the role of India and other foreign powers, warning that the victory of new political forces could make Nepal geopolitically vulnerable.

Given this new environment, predicting the election outcome is extremely difficult. There are multiple reasons for this uncertainty.

In the 2017 and 2022 elections, electoral alliances played a decisive role. In 2017, the pre-poll alliance between CPN-UML and the Maoist party led to their sweeping victory, while the Nepali Congress suffered a humiliating defeat. 

In 2022, the alliance between Nepali Congress and the Maoists was expected to favor NC, but UML managed to secure 30 percent of the proportional representation vote, slightly edging out NC at 29 percent. Meanwhile, RSP emerged as a “dark horse,” securing 20 seats, particularly attracting urban voters. This time, however, parties are contesting largely without alliances, fielding candidates across almost all 165 constituencies.

 The rise of RSP is forcing traditional parties to recalibrate their strategies. Speeches from top leaders indicate that major parties are targeting RSP and Balendra Sah, rather than criticizing each other—a clear sign of the pressure RSP is creating. While RSP is likely to make gains, its exact vote share remains uncertain, which could further weaken NC, UML, and Maoist positions.

Intra-party dynamics among the major parties also differ from previous elections. In the past, despite occasional dissatisfaction over candidate distribution, parties largely remained united. This time, the situation is more complex. 

In Nepali Congress, the election of Gagan Kumar Thapa as party president during the special general convention has energized the party, signaling alignment with GenZ aspirations. However, Sher Bahadur Deuba’s ongoing legal battles and the passive stance of his supporters may constrain the party’s overall performance. Old guards at both central and local levels are not fully backing the new candidates, creating a potential vertical split. In this context, it is unclear whether NC will hold its ground or continue to weaken.

Within UML, the intra-party rift is less visible but still impactful. Party Chairman KP Sharma Oli’s reputation after the GenZ protests, particularly regarding accountability for the deaths of 19 protesters, has hurt the party’s image. Senior leaders are also displeased with Oli’s ticket distribution, which barred dissenting voices from contesting. UML has a strong and active organizational network among major parties, but it remains uncertain whether the party can repair its image following the Gen Z protests.

For the Nepali Communist Party (NCP) led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal, predicting outcomes is equally challenging. While Dahal is likely to win in Rukum East, the fate of other senior leaders is uncertain. Historically, Maoists have oscillated between dominance (2008) and marginalization (2013), often relying on alliances to bolster their performance. In 2017 and 2022, the party secured third position in alliance with UML and Congress respectively, positioning itself as a king-maker. There has not been an independent test of the party's strength since the 2013 elections because it formed alliances with other parties in the subsequent two elections, making it very difficult to predict the party's current standing.

Finally, RSP continues to pose unpredictability. Although there appears to be a wave in their favor, the party lacks the organizational strength of NC, UML, and Maoists at the grassroots level. District-level  leaders leaving the party further complicates predictions.  While Balendra Shah's entry into the RSP has generated momentum, the effect of Rabi Lamichhane's legal cases on voter behavior is still uncertain. While RSP is expected to gain significantly in proportional representation, its performance in first-past-the-post contests remains uncertain. 

Other political forces influencing all major parties include the Madhes-based parties, as well as the parties led by Harka Sampang and Kul Man Ghising, each of which plays a significant role in shaping voter sentiment. 

In conclusion, the March 5 election is shaping up to be highly unpredictable due to youth engagement, anti-incumbency sentiment, the rise of RSP, intra-party dynamics, and new electoral agendas. Analysts and voters alike are facing a complex and fluid political landscape, making any prediction a formidable challenge.