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The Election Commission (EC) has announced the final results of the November 20 elections. With this, the race for the new prime minister is expected to gather momentum. Preliminary talks among parties on possible power-sharing modalities have already begun. The top leaders of the current five-party coalition have come up with a public statement pledging to keep their collaboration intact. The core of the power-sharing deal obviously is the post of prime minister. Within the coalition, there are two contenders—Sher Bahadur Deuba and Pushpa Kamal Dahal.  In his meetings with the Nepali Congress (NC) leaders, Dahal has been claiming his stake to the post of prime minister. But his bargaining power has certainly reduced, given the poor electoral performance of his party. Dahal’s CPN (Maoist Center) has won just 32 seats out of 275-member House of Representatives (HoR). Before the elections, he had expected to emerge as a decisive power with at least 50 seats  that could make or break a government. But the election results show otherwise. Desperate, Dahal is now attempting to consolidate his strength in parliament by trying to convince the CPN (Unified Socialist), Janamat Party, Janata Samajbadi Party, Nagarik Unmukti Party, and other fringe parties. He needs to corral support of other parties so that he could bargain for the premier’s post with the NC.  Speaking at a public function on December 12 in Kathmandu, Dahal said his party still holds the key. “I can get the support of 60 lawmakers in the House because parties such as Unified Socialist, Janata Samajbadi and other fringe parties would support our party,” he said.  On the face of it, Madhav Kumar Nepal of the Unified Socialist, Upendra Yadav’s Janata Samajbadi and leaders of some other fringe parties are likely to back Dahal’s premiership bid. Reports are that Dahal has agreed to fulfill the demands of these parties. There are even talks about possible merger of some of these parties with the Maoists. But even with the backing from the fringe parties, Dahal would still need the nod from either the NC or the CPN-UML to lead the next government. NC leader Deuba has maintained silence regarding Dahal’s prime ministerial ambition so far.  While Dahal expects Deuba to hand over the leadership reins of the next government as per their gentleman’s agreement reached before the elections, the latter wants to become the prime minister for the sixth time.  The NC leaders are of the view that the party should hand over the government leadership to Dahal after 2.5 years. NC Central Working Committee member Nain Singh Mahar says there could be an agreement with the Maoists on leading the government on a rotational basis. Meanwhile, Deuba also faces pressure within his own party to step down and make way for the new generation leaders. The external influence, mainly of India and the US, also equally matters in the government formation process. Indian Ambassador to Nepal Naveen Srivastava has already intensified talks with major political parties on the government formation process. During his visit to India in July this year, Dahal had reportedly told Indian leaders and officials that the five-party coalition would remain intact.  China has not spoken anything about the government formation process, though it is clear that it prefers Dahal to lead the new government.  If the current coalition fails to strike a deal on power sharing, there is a high chance Dahal may try to convince the UML. Although Dahal and UML leader KP Sharma Oli do not see eye to eye since the bitter break-up of the erstwhile Communist Party of Nepal (CPN), the leaders of the two parties are currently in talks about forming a left alliance.  On December 14, Maoist General Secretary Dev Gurung called on Oli at the latter's Balkot residence to discuss a power-sharing deal between the two parties. Similarly, UML politburo leader Mahesh Basnet, Oli’s confidant, had met Dahal last week.  A UML leader tells ApEx that second-rung leaders of the UML and the Maoist are trying to establish rapprochement between Oli and Dahal.  “The two leaders are ready to forget their enmity and work together,” says the leader. “We are trying to set up a meeting between them.” But due to Maoist Center’s reduced size in parliament, the UML may not agree to offer premiership to Dahal. The party could, however, agree on a rotational power sharing, just like the one proposed by the NC.

A writ has been filed at the Supreme Court against Rastriya Swatantra Party Chairman Rabi Lamichhane. Supreme Court spokesperson Bimal Paudel said that the writ was filed demanding that Lamichhane’s lawmaker post be scrapped at the earliest. “A writ was filed against Rabi Lamichhane. Yuva Raj Safal has lodged the writ,” Paudel said. He said that Rastriya Swatantra Party, Election Commission, federal parliament and District Administration Office, Kathmandu have been made defendants. Safal has urged the concerned authority not to administer oath to Lamichhane as a lawmaker. Lamichhane was dragged into controversy after being embroiled in a dual citizenship case. He was elected as a member of the House of Representatives from Chitwan-2.    

At a time when efforts are being made to form a new government under the leadership of the Nepali Congress, CPN-UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli and CPN (Maoist Center) General Secretary Dev Gurung held a meeting on Tuesday to discuss a possible left alliance and power sharing. The CPN (Maoist Center) has been bargaining with the Congress saying that they could even join hands with the UML. A key partner of the incumbent coalition government, the Maoist Center, which had earlier said that the current alliance should be given continuity to take the country towards the path of prosperity, has recently intensified meetings with the main opposition UML. Second rung leaders of the UML and the Maoist Center have been mounting pressure on Oli and Dahal to join hands together. Earlier this week, UML politburo member Mahesh Basent held a meeting with Maoist Center Chairman Dahal and stressed that the UML and Maoist Center should form a government together. During the meeting held on Tuesday night, Maoist Center leader Gurung told Oli that there is no alternative to left alliance and can form a government now also. According to a source, second rung leaders of both the parties are planning to arrange a meeting between Oli and Dahal. “We are creating a conducive environment to arrange a meeting between the chairperson of two parties. Oli and Dahal will meet soon,” a UML leader close to Oli said. The leader was of the opinion that both the leaders have felt that a communist government is indispensable for the long-term development of the country. “Both the chairmen are ready to move ahead by correcting the mistakes made in the past,” the leader said, adding, “Both the leaders have felt that the left alliance and communist government are essential for the long-term development of the country.” A Maoist Center leader said that Gurung went to Balkot to meet Oli after holding a broader discussion with Dahal. The source said that the duo discussed the possibility of forming a government by roping in some fringe parties. The CPN-UML has won 79 seats – 57 FPTP and 32 PR while the Maoist Center has won 32 seats.

Tharu leaders of the ruling coalition have united in favor of the ordinance brought by the government. Organizing a joint press conference in the Capital on Tuesday, the Nepali Congress and the CPN (Maoist Center) leaders defended the ordinance. At a time when the Nepali Congress General Secretary duo Gagan Thapa and Bishwo Prakash Sharma have been protesting against the ordinance, NC central members Ram Janam Chaudhary, Yogendra Chaudhary, Gopal Dahit, and Kalpana Chaudhary among others welcomed the government’s move. During the conference, they strongly condemned the remarks of their own leaders including Thapa and Sharma. NC central member Yogendra Chaudhary warned that they would retaliate against those who protested against the ordinance. “The Tharuhat movement was held to protect the sovereignty of the country. But, the sentiments of Tharu were hurt by showing the Tharu movement. We honor the ordinance brought to resolve the false cases filed during the movement,” he said, adding, “We will not remain silent against those who are playing a game to destroy the ordinance and raise questions against it. We are ready to take to the streets to retaliate against them.” He said that Resham Chaudhary was framed because of a political conspiracy. Another NC central member Ram Janam Chaudhary said that they are hopeful that President Bidya Devi Bhandari would authenticate the ordinance. He also urged Gagan Thapa to recall his remarks he made some time ago. During a program, Thapa had said that Resham Chaudhary was innocent and should be released at the earliest. CPN (Maoist Center) politburo leader Santa Kumar Tharu welcomed the government’s move to issue the ordinance and said that the Tharu leaders became united to pile pressure on the party leaders. Earlier, NC General Secretary Bishwo Prakash Sharma had also objected to the government decision to bring the ordinance.