Submit your Article

In fiscal year 2021/22, the government mobilized Rs 58.34bn in revenue from real estate transactions. However, the impacts of the second wave of Covid-19 brought the economy to a virtual standstill, hitting real estate transactions hard.

Although most of the sectors of the economy have recovered since then, the struggling real estate sector has yet to regain momentum. The government lifted a ban on land plotting to boost real estate transactions. However, it failed to make much impact as revenue from real estate transactions stood at Rs 46.54bn in 2022/23.

Real estate entrepreneurs say although there have been some improvements in the current fiscal year which began in mid-July, the sector has been unable to gain momentum due to various policy and practical difficulties. A recent study report submitted to the government has also suggested policy reforms to boost real estate transactions. The report has pointed out several factors impeding the real estate sector like lack of clear legal provisions for building integration, an overly complicated planning approval process, dominance of middlemen, unnaturally high prices, ineffective regulation, and difficulties due to land ownership limits.

Slow recovery

The real estate sector has been unable to recover since Covid-19. Annual revenue collection from this sector, which used to reach around Rs 70bn, has now fallen to Rs 46bn. While real estate transactions are increasing, they have not returned to pre-covid levels, according to Bed Prasad Aryal, the spokesperson for the Department of Land Management and Archive.

According to department statistics, the government raised Rs 46.54bn from real estate transactions in 2023/24. During Covid-19, annual revenue from real estate transactions had dropped to as low as Rs 25bn. Aryal said the sector is now gradually recovering from its vulnerable state. He added that land and housing transactions have increased more in the eastern Terai region compared to the Kathmandu Valley.

Low transaction value to avoid taxes

The actual annual real estate transactions amount to approximately Rs 2trn. However, government statistics only show transactions worth Rs 1trn. Bhesh Raj Lohani, chairperson of the Nepal Land and Housing Development Federation, said the sector has been deteriorating due to a lack of transparency in buying and selling. He explained that the difference between market value and government valuation creates this discrepancy.

“Purchases and sales happen at one price, while government valuations are much lower. If the state made the system transparent, the value would be at least Rs 2trn annually. Due to non-transparent transactions, the government is losing revenue from different headings like registration fees, capital gains tax and income tax,” said Lohani.

To support real estate transactions, both the government and Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) have relaxed various policies. According to the central bank statistics, approximately Rs 224bn has been invested in real estate loans by the end of mid-November of the current fiscal year, up from Rs 211bn in the same period of the previous fiscal year. Despite a 6.65 percent increase in loan investment, real estate transactions have not grown as expected.

Meanwhile, a task force formed by the government to study the problems and challenges of the real estate sector has submitted its report to the government. The committee submitted its report to Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Urban Development Minister Prakash Man Singh on Friday.

The committee has highlighted the need to revise most laws, procedures, and standards, as well as create new laws to address problems and challenges in real estate transactions.

Similarly, it has recommended issuing the 2007 Construction Standards for municipalities and urbanizing VDCs within Kathmandu Valley and the 2015 Basic Standards for Settlement Development, Urban Planning, and Building Construction as umbrella standards, and revising and implementing the 2005 Standards for Joint, Collective and Planned Housing.

Likewise, the task force has suggested that the government implement the 2020 Environmental Protection Regulations as per federal principles, and facilitate finance and tax-related matters.

Asia has been one of the world’s fastest-growing regions, and energy requirement is expected to increase by more than 50 percent until 2040, mainly driven by factors such as industrialization, urbanization and population growth. The general electricity generation dependency upon coal and thermal power in the region is 70 percent for India, over 80 percent for Bangladesh and 58 percent for Pakistan. Despite being a technologically advanced nation, 70 percent of Japan’s energy demand is fulfilled by fossil fuels whereas the numbers for South Korea and China are 80 percent and 60 percent, respectively. The Asian countries use about 0.5bn metric tons of coal annually, of which more than 1.5bn metric tons of CO2 are emitted from the power sector. This heavy reliance on fossil energy resources bears the social cost of extreme air pollution and greenhouse gas pollution. As industries like steel, cement, ammonia and others that release high levels of CO2 are expected to expand during the current decades, it is imperative to develop nontraditional energy sources in the region.

Green hydrogen is a clean, versatile energy carrier generated through water electrolysis using renewable electricity. In contrast to grey or blue hydrogen, which are derivatives of fossil fuels and their production emits greenhouse gases, green hydrogen is carbon-free. Its applications are manifold: from powering industry and transport to energy storage and a clean fuel source for power generation. For Asia whose energy mix is dominated by coal and natural gas, green hydrogen offers a pathway to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors like steel, cement and heavy transport. It also aligns with the region’s commitments under the Paris Agreement to limit global warming.

The present energy scenario of Nepal shows a comfortable position with an installed hydropower potential of about 3,157 MW, while the total domestic demand is about 1,870 MW. Nepal’s estimated peak electricity demand looks much less at 10,500 MW by 2040 with an installed capacity of 40,000 MW. This excess renewable energy is a perfect opportunity for Nepal to focus on green hydrogen production since water electrolysis can be powered with surplus electricity. Green hydrogen can act as a carbon-neutral and exportable energy vector for meeting the energy transition needs of neighboring Asian countries. Since coal and thermal energy predominate in the countries within the region, exporting green hydrogen from Nepal could be helpful to countries like China, South Korea, Japan, India, Bangladesh and Pakistan to progress toward less carbon-intensive energy sources and, at the same time, spur regional cooperation and growth of the energy sector. 

India's rising demand for green hydrogen is a perfect opportunity for Nepal to become a major exporter of green hydrogen. Nepal, being a country abundant in hydroelectric power, could use the excess clean energy to generate green hydrogen to aid India in its decarbonization drive. Moreover, Nepal has the potential to export green hydrogen and its derivatives, such as ammonia, to India via pipelines, enabling further export to East Asian and South Asian markets. While green hydrogen may not currently be the most economically viable energy source, it stands out as one of the most environmentally-sustainable options, aligning with global decarbonization goals. Besides, the geographical location of Nepal, which is adjacent to India, and the ongoing prospects of energy exchange make the country an ideal supplier of green hydrogen. At the same time, this business may lead to the generation of thousands of employment opportunities in Nepal’s energy transportation and logistics sectors and contribute to diversification. Green hydrogen holds the promise of becoming the foundation of Nepal's new export economy in energy and, therefore, could become a long-term substitute for the two most volatile industries in Nepal—remittances and tourism.

A 2023 report by the World Bank estimated that if Nepal utilized 10 percent of its technically feasible hydropower for hydrogen production, it could produce 1.2m metric tons of green hydrogen annually, worth approximately $6bn at current market rates. Exporting hydrogen to India, Bangladesh and potentially China would create thousands of jobs throughout the supply chain of hydrogen production, storage, transport and logistics. For Nepal’s economy, which relies heavily on remittances and tourism, hydrogen could diversify revenue streams and reduce trade deficits.

The proximity of Nepal to the two significant energy consumers, India and China, places it at a logistical advantage in terms of green hydrogen exports. India’s National Hydrogen Energy Mission has targeted bringing down the price of green hydrogen to $1 per kilogram by 2030, creating massive demand for cheaper imports. And Nepal could be a key supplier. Also, hydrogen trade could be added to existing bilateral agreements such as the India-Nepal Power Trade Agreement (2014). Developing regional hydrogen corridors with shared infrastructure, such as pipelines and storage facilities, would reduce costs.

The government’s support is critical to making Nepal a green hydrogen hub. The Nepal Hydrogen Hub plan foresees the utilization of excess hydropower in the production of green hydrogen that can be utilized in Nepal’s economy in green cement and green steel industries, and the excess hydrogen can be exported as green ammonia or transported through pipelines to the Asian market. Setting up a green hydrogen plant for every hydropower project being developed in Nepal would be very costly. In response, the Nepal government should propose a plan to establish four strategic hydrogen hubs to centralize resources for cost efficiency based on the approximate area of hydropower stations. These hydrogen hubs, depending on their distances from either India or Bangladesh, could be used to export green hydrogen, hence providing Nepal with perfect regional markets. 

For that, the policymakers need to formulate a National Hydrogen Roadmap outlining the production target, export strategy and incentive for investment. Offering subsidies or tax breaks for producing green hydrogen and related infrastructures can attract domestic and foreign investments. Incentivizing public-private partnerships is critical for mobilizing large-scale capital and technical expertise. Green hydrogen aligns with Nepal’s commitments under the Paris Agreement to achieve net-zero emissions by 2045. Hydrogen can reduce air pollution, improve public health, and contribute to global climate goals by replacing fossil fuels. 

Developing robust export infrastructure, such as pipelines, storage systems and transportation networks, will ensure seamless movement to regional and international markets via shipments. This will not only strengthen the Nepali economy but also make it more self-reliant, rather than being dependent on remittances and taxes, which are unsustainable long-term economic solutions. Becoming a green hydrogen export hub will not only position Nepal as a leader in sustainable energy but also create massive employment opportunities and drive the development of green infrastructure to pave the way for long-term economic growth and environmental resilience. Besides, the export of green hydrogen will lower Nepal’s trade deficit by decreasing reliance on imports while creating new revenue streams. This transformation aligns with global efforts to decarbonize energy systems and presents Nepal with an opportunity to lead the region in renewable energy innovation and sustainability.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued a travel advisory cautioning Nepali citizens about fraudulent job offers promising attractive salaries in the IT sector in Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos. Criminal networks have been luring individuals through social media advertisements and agents, transporting them to Bangkok or Yangon International Airport, and then coercing them into illegal activities in Myanmar's Kayin Province (Myawaddy) and other regions. 

Victims face exploitation such as passport confiscation, long working hours, non-payment of wages and even physical abuse. Recent incidents have seen a significant rise in rescue requests to Nepal's embassies in Yangon and Bangkok. 

The ministry warns that engaging in or facilitating such illegal activities is punishable under Nepali law and urges citizens to avoid falling for these scams. It has advised against traveling on visit visas for employment and recommended verifying foreign employers through Nepal's embassies.

Nepali citizens can contact the embassies in Yangon or Bangkok for assistance or further information.

Who will succeed Nepali Congress (NC) President Sher Bahadur Deuba? This question dominates discussions within the party as Deuba’s tenure nears its end. According to the party statute, he cannot contest for a third term, setting the stage for what is expected to be a fierce competition among senior leaders to take up the party’s mantle.

Senior party figures have already begun internal lobbying and consultations. The stakes are high, as the NC faces increasing public dissatisfaction with its leadership. This discontent is not unique to the NC; major political parties across Nepal are under scrutiny for their inability to deliver on public expectations. The choice of the next NC president is being watched closely, not only domestically but also internationally. The party’s rank and file is  yearning for a dynamic leader who can revitalize its organizational structure and restore public trust, which has eroded significantly over the past few years amid the rise of new political forces.

Deuba has so far refrained from signaling any preference for his successor and is expected to maintain this neutrality. In a recent interaction with the media in Biratnagar, he dismissed speculations about endorsing a candidate, stating that the party’s general convention will decide the new leadership. However, his inner circle—leaders like Purna Bahadur Khadka, Bimalendra Nidhi and Prakash Man Singh—are all keen to secure his endorsement. Another potential contender, Bal Krishna Khand, was once considered a strong candidate but has faded into the background due to his alleged involvement in the fake Bhutanese refugee scandal. For now, none of these leaders have formally announced their candidacy, but behind-the-scenes maneuvering is intensifying.

Among these figures, Khadka stands out for his loyalty, as he has never openly challenged Deuba’s leadership whereas Nidhi and Singh have previously contested against Deuba, alongside Shekhar Koirala, in the party’s 14th General Convention. During the second round of that election, Nidhi and Singh strategically supported Deuba, helping him defeat Koirala. As a gesture of gratitude, Deuba later backed Singh’s spouse, Srijana Singh, as the NC candidate for Kathmandu Mayor in the local elections.

Singh currently holds the influential positions of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Urban Development. Nidhi, despite a history of strained ties with Deuba after contesting for the presidency, is actively seeking to mend fences. He argues that his seniority and status as a prominent Madhesi leader make him a deserving candidate. However, his task is far from easy, as he must navigate both internal rivalries and the broader dynamics of party politics.

From the anti-Deuba camp, two prominent leaders—Shekhar Koirala and Gagan Thapa—are gearing up for the race. Koirala has already launched a nationwide campaign to bolster his candidacy. In contrast, Thapa is taking a more calculated approach, weighing his moves carefully to avoid jeopardizing his relationship with Deuba. Over the years, the two have found common ground on several issues, which has eased tensions between them. Deuba has even publicly praised Thapa’s contributions within and beyond the party, signaling a certain level of mutual respect.

At the same time, there is speculation that Deuba is working to elevate his spouse, Arzu Rana Deuba, to a senior party position—possibly vice-president—during the upcoming 15th General Convention. This potential move adds another layer of complexity to the ongoing leadership contest, as it could shift internal alliances.

Koirala, for his part, remains vocal in his criticism of the party’s leadership and the government’s performance. Thapa, in contrast, has adopted a more measured tone, carefully calibrating his public statements to preserve his rapport with Deuba. Despite his relatively weak organizational base, Thapa enjoys strong support among the party’s youth, who view him as a symbol of hope and renewal. His popularity among younger members gives him a distinct advantage, even as he faces challenges in consolidating his position within the broader party structure.

It remains unclear whether Koirala and Thapa will form another alliance, as they did in the 14th convention, or choose to compete independently. In the previous convention, their alliance saw Koirala lose the presidency while Thapa secured his position as general secretary. This time, both leaders are carefully weighing their options. All prospective candidates are eager to secure Deuba’s endorsement, given his strong influence over the party’s Central Working Committee, provincial structures and local levels. However, Deuba’s silence on the matter has left many in his camp anxious.

Candidates like Koirala and Thapa have reportedly reached out to Deuba’s allies, offering positions in their potential leadership teams to win support. Yet, insiders say Deuba is likely to remain non-committal until the eleventh hour, a strategy that could leave his faction in a state of uncertainty. As the NC moves closer to this crucial juncture, the party’s leadership race promises to be a defining moment for its future.