Nepal’s economic problems are structural

The ongoing political debate in Nepal, centered around a choice between a republic and a monarchy, has escalated over time. While discussions are confined to the political sphere, such debates have gained momentum as Nepal’s democracy fails to deliver meaningful economic results. Nepal’s economic performance is bleak, and a deep sense of injustice and powerlessness has prevailed among its citizens. When distrust erodes people’s faith in democratic institutions, demagogues are likely to surf on the wave of political and economic populism. Compounding these factors, the government’s procrastination in taking concrete steps to find long-term solutions to fix the underlying causes has only exacerbated the crisis.

The challenges enumerated above are consequences of a more profound force that has led to a presently dysfunctional system - a manifestation of the country’s pseudo-democracy. In Nepal, the conceptualization of democracy seems confined predominantly to its intrinsic value. However, the other instrumental facet of democracy, which serves as an effective means of socio-economic and political transformation, is inadequately realized. Consequently, a nuanced and timely discourse on this matter becomes imperative, as it can only positively impact people’s lives and eventually disperse crowds of illusions.

Short-termism of the financial sector

The pervasive short-termism in Nepal’s financial sector has diverted more finance into unproductive assets such as real estate and the stock market. An increasing emphasis on quarterly returns has crowded out long-term capital investment, and economic research and development. This narrow-minded approach not only impedes innovation, productivity, competitiveness, and job creation but also exacerbates the brain drain of youth, pushing them to seek opportunities abroad.

Who, then, is responsible for the wrongdoing? The nasty form of corporate governance has continuously tempered the economy, forgoing shadow alliances with corrupt politicians and bureaucrats who, in turn, share in illicit revenue. Such extractive institutional nexus has ruptured the interlinkage between the productive sector, job creation, and overall economic progress. The resultant frustration and anxiety among the general public are tangible, contributing to the prevailing discontent and fueling political and economic unrest in the nation. To foster genuine and sustainable growth, a shift toward responsible corporate governance and a recalibration of private sector priorities is imperative.

Slow or absent government

So far, the government’s action has been ‘too little, too late’, reflecting a reactive approach to addressing economic problems, often with detrimental consequences. Nepal’s economic problems are structural and, thus, need structural overhaul rather than short-term ‘jugaad’. For instance, the government needs to be reflective of the private sector's disinterest in long-term capital investment and its preference for trading rather than bolstering its manufacturing and service base. Why do investors continuously yell that the current economic structure demoralizes long-term capital investment and lament the government’s commitment to fixing it? The role of government transcends beyond merely revenue collection, market regulation, and correcting market failures. It must demonstrate a significant investment pledge in research and development and foster an environment where the private sector can operate with confidence and a sense of long-term commitment. This calls for a paradigm shift in how economic organizations are governed, how their relationships are structured, and how economic actors interconnect.

Low level of premature deindustrialization

With globalization, developing countries, including Nepal, witnessed a rapid shift from agriculture to the service sector, bypassing industry-led economic growth much earlier than the historical average. In his 2016 study, economist Dani Rodrik argued that premature deindustrialization could negatively impact economic growth through job loss and lower comparative advantage due to poor technology. An analysis of Nepal’s economic data (1975-2016) indicates that the manufacturing sector has shrunk, and there is a need to increase the share of manufacturing in national output and create jobs. Unemployment and economic frustration could trigger political instability and illiberal politics. Most importantly, only manufacturing can fill the vacuum of Nepal’s market gap of labor demand vs skill mismatch. It is especially true for the semi-skilled and unskilled labor force who outgrew agriculture but are ill-equipped for high-tech jobs. Reindustrialization is not an unavoidable fate and is essential for a change in the present economic structure to increase employment and bolster the production base. The question is how to design tools that help achieve this directionality with a purpose.

Democracy must deliver

The public’s desire for change resonates with their expectations for increased job opportunities, enhanced livelihood, and better public services. This collective aspiration has historically fueled the political call for democracy in Nepal. Over time, if democracy fails to deliver tangible economic progress, questions naturally arise on its appropriateness, leading people to explore alternative paths. While the intrinsic values inherent in democracy are significant, they alone are insufficient for sustenance. A democratic system must also demonstrate economic efficacy, delivering concrete economic results to win over citizens for more extensive support and credibility.

This means rethinking corporate governance where both government and the private sector adopt a mission-oriented approach for overcoming structural economic challenges. Only the government, with its unparalleled authority, holds the key to steering transformative change on a scale that can redefine the dynamics of economic progress and societal interaction. But, at present, the government itself requires reawakening. The current status quo is failing too many people; therefore, a delivery-centered democratic reorientation is only a long-term solution to public dissent.

 

The author is a public policy candidate at Willy Brandt School in Germany. He has served as a research officer at the Office of the Investment Board Nepal. He can be reached for comments at [email protected]


 

Covid new variant: Not much to worry

India saw a single day rise of 656 new cases of coronavirus on Dec 24, pushing the active cases to 3,742 according to the Union Health Ministry. Amid the surge in cases of Covid-19, health experts have asked people to remain calm and follow Covid-appropriate behavior.

In Nepal, health experts have suggested people not to worry about the latest surge of coronavirus infection in India. They say that the mutations of the virus are always evolving, and this is one of the mutations of the omicron variant. 

“Though this strain is circulating faster, it is not very serious. It is not that scary. If you are vaccinated once or twice, or were previously infected there won’t be much severity if you get infected,” said Sameer Mani Acharya Dixit, chairperson and head of research at Intrepid Nepal Pvt Ltd.

The symptoms of the infection are similar to the infection caused by similar other variants of the coronavirus, such as headache, sore throat, fever, etc. Health experts, however, have advised people to take booster shots to prevent oneself from the severity of the infection.

What is JN.1?

JN.1 is a closely-related descendant of BA.2.86, a highly mutated strain that first worried scientists over the summer. BA.2.86 was deemed a “variant of interest” by the World Health Organization back in August.

The UN health body has recently designated JN.1 as a variant of interest, differentiating it from its parent lineage BA.2.86. The WHO defines variants of interest as strains that are worrying enough to trigger stepped up investigations of the variant by countries, like laboratory studies and field investigations of its outbreaks.

Despite its swift dissemination, the WHO has underscored that the overall risk associated with JN.1 is currently considered low based on available evidence.

In recent weeks, JN.1 was reported in multiple countries, and its prevalence has been rapidly increasing globally. But the WHO has maintained that there is no evidence to suggest any additional public health risk posed by the variant.

Concerns triggered

After first being spotted in the United States in September, the variant has spread across 41 countries.

Health experts say the JN.1 is spreading fast in all regions, probably because it has an additional mutation in the spike protein compared to the BA.2.86 variant from which it’s descended.

The outbreak of the JN.1 sub-variant of the coronavirus in India has triggered concerns among the Nepalis. Indian states Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Goa, Puducherry, Gujarat, Telangana, Punjab and Delhi have reported a slight increase in the number of cases of late. 

According to the Indian media reports nearly 93 percent of those infected have mild symptoms and are isolating at home. Among those who are undergoing treatment at hospitals across the country, only 0.1 percent are on ventilator support, 1.2 percent are admitted into the intensive care unit and 0.6 are on oxygen support.

No need to panic

Nepal currently hasn’t seen a rise in the number of coronavirus cases. The authorities however say that they are closely monitoring the development in India.

“Many people in Nepal have had the infection and people have received at least two doses of the vaccine. Therefore, the probability of severe infection is low,” said Dr Prakash Budhathoki, spokesperson at the Ministry of Health and Population. “Intensive care units, oxygen plants, and other physical infrastructure constructed during the Covid-19 pandemic can be utilized if needed.” 

Following the surge in coronavirus cases, health desks established at checkpoints and international airports have been placed on standby, and a request has been made to place patients with respiratory problems under special supervision.

“As the infection is seen in Kerala, we are relatively at lower risks. If the infection was seen in the southern areas of India that borders Nepal, it would have been quite risky, as there are high chances for the variant to enter the country in a shorter time span,” said Dr Budhathoki. 

He also informed that patients with long-standing respiratory problems have been recommended for gene sequencing. The ministry has also requested health centers to keep a check on the people visiting the hospitals with the symptoms of coronavirus and has asked them to submit a report to the ministry.

“It is anticipated that this variant may cause an increase in Sars-Cov-2 [coronavirus] cases amid a surge of infections of other viral and bacterial infections, especially in countries entering the winter season,” the WHO said in its risk assessment.

The UN health agency also noted that there is still limited evidence on how capable JN.1 is of getting round the immunity offered by vaccines.

Strengthen surveillance

The WHO has urged countries in the South-East Asia region to strengthen surveillance and for people to take protective measures in view of increasing numbers of cases of respiratory diseases, including due to coronavirus and its new sub-variant JN.1, and influenza. 

“The Covid-19 virus continues to evolve, change and circulate in all countries globally. While current evidence suggests the additional public health risk posed by JN.1 is low, we must continue to track the evolution of these viruses to tailor our response. For this, countries must strengthen surveillance and sequencing, and ensure sharing of data,” said Dr Poonam Khetrapal Singh, WHO regional director for South-East Asia. 

Considering the available, yet limited evidence, the additional public health risk posed by JN.1 is currently evaluated as low at the global level. It is anticipated that this variant may cause an increase in Covid-19 cases amid a surge in infections of other viral and bacterial infections, especially in countries entering the winter season.

 Ways to protect

 Health experts have advised people to take protective measures and seek timely clinical care when unwell. They have also urged people with high risk such as elderly citizens, people with comorbid health conditions to take vaccination against coronavirus and influenza.

“All WHO-approved Covid-19 vaccines continue to protect against severe disease and death from all variants, including JN.1,” said Dr Singh. “With Covid-19 continuing to circulate at high levels globally, countries must strengthen surveillance, sequencing and reporting to effectively manage respiratory diseases and to protect people’s health.”

To prevent infections and severe disease, the WHO advises to:

  • Wear a mask in crowded, enclosed areas
  • Cover up coughs and sneezes
  • Clean your hands regularly
  • Stay up to date with covid and flu vaccinations, especially if vulnerable
  • Stay home if ill
  • Get tested if you have symptoms


 

Samita Devi Shakya: Limited resources and social stigma make braille learning difficult

Samita Devi Shakya is a braille translator with a 16-year tenure at Laboratory Higher Secondary School in Kirtipur. Passionate about education and committed to making an impact, Shakya has been doing her best to provide support and guidance for visually impaired students. As a braille educator, she has played a pivotal role in fostering an inclusive learning environment, ensuring that every student, regardless of their visual abilities, has the opportunity to thrive and succeed.

With a wealth of experience and a genuine passion for her work, she stands as a testament to the transformative power of education in breaking down barriers and creating equal opportunities for all. In a conversation with Evana Manandhar of ApEx, she shared her insights and experiences while talking about the profound impact of Braille education on the lives of visually impaired students.

How do you make learning braille engaging for children?

Creating an engaging braille learning experience for children involves tactile activities like crafting braille letters and interactive games such as Braille Bingo and Scrabble. Storytelling with braille storybooks enhances language skills, while technology like braille learning apps and 3D-printed tactile graphics adds a modern dimension. Art projects and collaborative activities foster creativity and social learning, making braille a memorable part of the curriculum. Integrating music and rhythm adds an auditory aspect, and celebrating achievements reinforces a positive attitude toward braille learning.

 What specific challenges do you encounter when teaching braille to young learners?

Teaching braille to young learners poses challenges due to their developmental stage and the tactile nature of braille. Key hurdles include the gradual development of tactile sensitivity, limited fine motor skills for precise finger movements, and potential cognitive overload. Challenges like letter reversals, short attention spans, and limited exposure to braille in daily life further complicate the teaching process. The scarcity of suitable resources and potential social stigma add to the complexity. Overcoming these challenges requires adapting to visual learners, providing teacher training, and ensuring a positive and inclusive braille learning experience for young children.

Can you share some creative activities or games you use to reinforce braille skills?

Teaching braille to young learners poses unique challenges, given their developing tactile sensitivity and fine motor skills. To overcome these hurdles, engaging in activities is crucial. One effective approach is the Sensory Letter Hunt, where braille letters are crafted from various textured materials and hidden for children to find by touch, making the learning process interactive and enjoyable. Braille alphabet puzzles provide a hands-on method, allowing children to match tactile puzzle pieces to form braille letters, enhancing both braille skills and fine motor abilities.

Integrating music with braille, such as associating each braille letter with a musical note, adds a creative dimension to learning. Children can create tunes using braille letters, linking auditory learning with braille practice and making the educational experience more enjoyable. These activities not only reinforce braille skills but also address challenges specific to young learners, creating a positive and inclusive braille learning environment.

How do you involve parents in the learning process and encourage practice at home?

During admissions, I stress the pivotal role of braille literacy for visually impaired children, portraying it not just as an additional skill but as a fundamental tool for education and independence. I emphasize braille’s unique benefits, promoting literacy, enhancing cognitive development, and fostering independence. Engaging parents in hands-on activities, such as labeling household items with braille, illustrates its practical applications.

Encouraging a supportive community, I propose a forum for parents learning braille, fostering camaraderie and mutual support. Even a basic understanding can greatly assist their child. Supporting a child’s braille learning involves integrating a patient, multi-sensory approach into daily activities. Celebrating small achievements builds confidence. Lastly, showcasing successful teachers with visual impairments exemplifies an inclusive mindset, fostering an educational space where all students can thrive.

What advice would you give to educators or parents who are supporting a child in learning braille for the first time?

For educators or parents guiding a child in learning braille, prioritize patience, consistency, and creativity. Start early and maintain regular exposure to braille, using a multi-sensory approach for engagement. Celebrate small successes to build positive associations, and involve the child in goal-setting. Integrate braille into daily activities for practical relevance and establish a supportive environment with open communication. Seek guidance from certified braille instructors for effective support. Remember, learning braille is a gradual process, and fostering a positive and encouraging atmosphere is crucial for the child’s successful braille literacy journey.

Dahal’s one year of leadership: More misses than hits

It’s been a whirlwind year since Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal assumed office on December 26, 2022. Against all odds, he's managed to steer the ship through turbulent political waters, but the real question is: has the journey been as smooth as he'd hoped?

Let’s face it, people did not have much expectation with the current dispensation. Both Dahal and his key coalition partner Nepali Congress’s President Sher Bahadur Deuba are tested politicians with poor track records. So expectations from this government were not exactly high. Before this government even kicked into gear, citizens were already frustrated with major parties playing power games without any regard for progress. 

Fast forward a year, and the time has come to dissect Dahal’s performance. Dahal, whose party polled third in the 2022 general elections, showcased his skills by keeping the coalition intact and maintaining a precarious grip on power. 

Dahal’s CPN (Maoist Center) had forged an electoral alliance with the Congress and other fringe parties with the intent of defeating the CPN-UML. Dahal and Deuba had agreed to form a rotational government after the election, where Dahal would lead the first half of the five-year term. 

But soon after the election results were out, Deuba refused to honor the deal, prompting Dahal to form a coalition government with the UML. The Maoist-UML partnership was short-lived though. While Dahal assumed the seat of the executive, it was the UML, the second largest party, that called most of the shots, much to the prime minister’s annoyance.  

The last straw came when the UML staked claim to the post of the president. So Dahal once again struck a deal with Deuba’s Nepali Congress to form a new government within months after the elections. And this time Deuba agreed to allow Dahal to lead the coalition government first as a returning favor for throwing the Maoist party’s weight behind Congress’s presidential candidate, Ram Chandra Paudel. Thus Dahal succeeded in reviving the pre-election coalition, and he has so far managed to keep it together. 

Soon after assuming the prime minister’s office, Prime Minister Dahal projected himself as a champion of republicanism, secularism, federalism, and inclusion. He promised to protect and promote these values enshrined in the 2015 constitution. 

But the prime minister found himself facing a challenge on all fronts. The constitution's key pillars came under attack, with voices against it growing louder. Secularism and federalism faced severe backlash, and provincial governments complained of being short-changed by the federal authority.

Then along came anti-republican rabble-rouser Durga Prasai, a businessman turned common enemy of all major political parties, who rallied thousands of people behind him to protest against the current political system. Additionally, the social harmony that Nepal once prided itself on was disrupted by clashes between religious and ethnic groups. 

People’s frustration with major political parties has reached an all-time high, and the popularity graph of leaders have hit rock bottom. The fear of a crumbling system is palpable, and parties are already fretting about the next election.

The next general election is four years away, and the major parties are already worried. They fear the rise of new political forces, particularly the Rastriya Swatantra Party, and independent candidates.

On the governance front, Dahal failed to inject hope and optimism. Corruption remained untamed, and service delivery showed no signs of improvement. Despite issuing directives to improve governance, Dahal found himself in a bind as his own directives gathered dust. Frequent transfers of officials, a desperate attempt to appease ministers, reflected a lack of learning from past mistakes.

Even within his party, discontent brewed. Dahal's close-knit circle irked party members, and the resignation of political advisor Haribol Gajurel spoke volumes about the government's internal struggles. In the midst of this, Dahal’s attempt to salvage the government's image through selective anti-corruption measures fell flat, failing to inspire hope among the people.

The government also failed to endorse the key bills from Parliament that aim to strengthen the federal and local governments. Dahal had promised to conclude the transitional justice process drawing the support of the international community, but failed on this agenda too.

While Prime Minister Dahal tried to improve the image of his government by opening an investigation into some big corruption scandals such as fake refugee scandals, the Lalita Niwas land grab, and smuggling of gold, it failed to sprout hope in the people because he adopted a selective approach and tried to protect his party leaders. 

The economic outlook under Dahal's leadership has been far from rosy. A surge in people seeking job opportunities abroad reflects a lack of confidence in the domestic job market. While some positive indicators exist, such as a decline in inflation and growing remittances, the overall economic landscape lacks the transformative touch promised by Dahal.

In the realm of foreign policy, Dahal played it safe. Steering clear of contentious issues with major powers, he focused on economic and developmental agendas. An appeasement policy was adopted to safeguard the fragile coalition, especially with India, which wields significant influence over Nepal's internal politics. Dahal has also somewhat succeeded in convincing China regarding his compulsion of maintaining close ties with New Delhi and Washington.

As Dahal contemplates changing ministers to shake things up, the real question remains: can a mere reshuffling bring about the change Nepal needs? Self-reflection seems to be in short supply as Dahal, instead of addressing concerns, dismisses critics as regressive forces.

First, Dahal himself should mend his ways. Over the past year, Dahal spent most of his precious time participating in insignificant events, such as a book launch and building inauguration. He invested very little or no time to diagnose where the problem lies and how it can be resolved. He rarely visited any government offices to inspect the service delivery.

 

One year into the job, Dahal appears more focused on securing the next year in power than leaving a lasting impact. The clock is ticking, and the country watches with bated breath to see if Dahal can transform challenges into triumphs in the years ahead.