Submit your Article

Until a few years ago, winter days in major cities across Nepal, including the Kathmandu Valley, were characterized by hazardous air quality, posing significant health risks to the public.

On January 4, 2021, the Department of Environment issued an alert to the public regarding the perilous air quality in Kathmandu Valley and other major cities, urging them to take preventive measures when outdoors.

Now, here is good news for us: air quality has relatively enhanced in recent years. According to Deepak Gyawali, the Department's information officer, although air pollution significantly increased in 2021, it has been gradually decreasing since then.

Major contributors to air pollution include carbon emissions from motor vehicles, dust particles released during road repair and construction and other construction works, emissions from industries and brick kilns, poor waste management practices, and forest fires.

Similarly, using firewood as a cooking fuel in rural areas contributes significantly to indoor air pollution. Moreover, increasing development activities in India and the burning of agricultural residues near the border towns and settlements exacerbate air pollution issues in Nepal.

According to Gyawali, the occurrence of rains and wind during peak pollution seasons, as well as the dry season, significantly contributes to mitigating air pollution.

Furthermore, the decrease in infrastructure development activities following an economic slowdown is speculated to have contributed to the improvement in air quality, although this hypothesis requires further study for confirmation.

Similarly, the use of electric vehicles and electric cookstoves has increased. The brick factories, which are one of the sources of air pollution, have also installed new technology. On the other hand, only around 50 percent of these factories are operating due to the economic slump.

Shankar Bahadur Chand, President of Nepal Brick Factory Federation, said the market for brick has reduced by 80 percent at present. "Only 40-50 percent of all the brick kilns are in operation these days, and that also not in their full capacity. Out of the 1,100 brick factories across the country, only about 500 are in operation at present," he said. He further added that it is difficult to re-operate a brick factory once it is closed down.

Kathmandu's air quality below standard

However, the air quality in some big cities, including in Kathmandu, is lower than the WHO standard.

The air quality from 0-50 in the Air Quality Index (AQI) is considered good for health. AQI 50-100 is considered average while AQI above this indicates an unhealthy atmosphere.

The AQI in Kathmandu today (Thursday) is 160 on average. Therefore, experts have pointed out that a lot of work has to be done to improve the quality of air in Kathmandu Valley.

The possibility of air pollution resulting from wildfires is always there in Nepal. Dust particles and the smoke, carbon, chemicals and various gasses emitted from factories and industries and incidences of fires are mixed in the air due to heightened pollution.

Toxic gasses like sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, carbon monoxide that are produced when burning fossil fuels damage human health as well as contribute to the global temperature rise.

The government has established Air Quality Monitoring Stations at 27 different places in the country to measure the air quality. Preparation was underway to set up air quality monitoring stations at three more places in the current fiscal year. Air becomes most polluted between 7:00 am-8:00 am. 

Program Director of Environment and Public Health Organization (ENPHO), Rajendra Shrestha, said opinions regarding improvement in air quality should be verified.

Accepting that sources of air pollution have decreased and people have become aware, he shared, "Air pollution might have decreased due to reduction in factories, increase in use of electric vehicles and stoves, decrease in development construction activities, operation of brick kilns and road upgrading."

Three major reasons behind the death of the people in Nepal are disease related to heart, liver and brain hemorrhage. These three types of disease also have a connection with air pollution. Cases of diseases mainly related with respiratory problems are found to have increased due to air pollution.

As per the World Health Organization, around seven million people in the world die untimely every year due to air pollution. It is said that around 40,000 people lose their lives in Nepal every year from it. 

Air pollution has been making negative impacts on the overall environment not only on human beings. Therefore, partnership was necessary among all stakeholders to control air pollution.

Monish Tourangbam is a New Delhi-based strategic analyst and the honorary director at the Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies (KIIPS). He holds an MPhil and PhD from the School of International Studies, JNU, and has taught geopolitics and international relations at Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, and Amity University, Noida. Tourangbam has also been a visiting faculty at the University of Cincinnati, Ohio, a SAV visiting fellow at the Stimson Center, Washington DC, and associate editor of the Indian Foreign Affairs Journal. He has been an Indian delegate at a number of high-level Track II Dialogues and regular commentator on US foreign policy, India’s foreign policy, geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific and South Asia besides other pertinent issues of international relations. Kamal Dev Bhattarai of ApEx talked with him about the Indo-Pacific Strategy and its implications for Nepal. 

How do you see the implementation of US Indo-Pacific Strategy 2022 in the Indo-Pacific region?

The US Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) more than anything else affirms the prevailing view in America’s policymaking community that the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) comprehensive rise is the most prominent strategic challenge to US primacy in the international system, and more particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. “The PRC’s coercion and aggression spans the globe, but it is most acute in the Indo-Pacific,” the IPS says. Although it does mention a host of global issues including the pandemic and the climate change that require renewed American leadership, the focus of this strategy on the strategic challenges posed by China is quite apparent: That the United States needs to face such challenges squarely, and build a “free and open Indo-Pacific that is more connected, prosperous, secure, and resilient,” in concert with allies and like-minded partners is what this strategy contends. The economic, political, and military balance that was heavily tilted toward the United States and its allies in the post-Cold War era has been rapidly shifting to a much more complex environment. 

The IPS is emphatic in pronouncing the Indo-Pacific region as the most consequential in terms of its impact on the world, and one that will require the US to deliver more than ever. The cornerstone of implementing the IPS quite clearly lies in how well the United States is able to diagnose the 21st century problems that the region confronts, and devising the solutions to the range of issues traversing the military plus non-military areas.

How do South Asian countries perceive the IPS and how are they responding to it?

It will not be easy to put all the South Asian countries under one particular bracket or category, while assessing how they perceive and respond to the US Indo-Pacific Strategy. Despite being grouped under South Asia, the countries in this region possess peculiar geography and interests that shape their perceptions and responses to the IPS. Each country depending on their maritime or continental features, and their terms of engagements with the US perceive and navigate the politics, economics and security of the evolving Indo-Pacific region. For instance, the imperatives of development and security in each of the eight South Asian countries shape their strategic behaviors as well as tactical responses. 

Quite evidently, the exponential growth that India’s partnership with the US has seen in the last two decades, despite its own history of “estrangement”, is something that continues to and will overwhelmingly shape how South Asia features in US Indo-Pacific Strategy. Moreover, in deciphering the perception and responses of South Asian countries to the IPS, the China factor will loom large, because of Beijing’s growing strategic footprints in the region. While the US-China strategic competition is an overriding factor in the Indo-Pacific strategy and the military implications are quite apparent, the IPS is much more comprehensive in its scope and its non-military dimensions that are development oriented or human-centric are equally significant for the South Asian countries.

What are its implications in this region?

The looming shadow of the Indo-Pacific increasingly hovers over the politics, economics and security of South Asia. Whether South Asia occupies a pivotal position in terms of shaping the contours of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy can still be debated. The way Washington perceives the Indo-Pacific as a geopolitical region, and implements it still reflects a bias towards the maritime aspects, more particularly the Western Pacific, and the contestation with China’s growing ambitions in the South China Sea plus the Taiwan Straits. 

Moreover, South Asia does not have any treaty ally of the United States, and hence its security commitments in the region are quite different compared to those in the East Asian theater. The withdrawal from Afghanistan portends a new era in Washington’s South Asia strategy, that calls for greater resources devoted and policy attention to build an “open and free” Indo-Pacific amidst challenges posed by an assertive China. The downward slide in India-China relations, the growing US-China rivalry and the burgeoning India-US strategic cooperation, are leading to a complex competition-cooperation-confrontation dynamic affecting the dependent and independent agency of South Asian countries. 

In South Asia, the US is a distant power in terms of geography but not as far as strategy and influence are concerned. While South Asian countries seem to hedge their bets between India and China, the role of the US cannot be discounted. The US’ strategy in South Asia has largely focused on the triangular axis of India, Afghanistan and Pakistan, but its Indo-Pacific strategy has been widening the menu of military and non-military engagements in the subcontinent. As far as hardcore security implications are concerned, how South Asian countries perceive and respond to America’s evolving concept of integrated deterrence will be significant.

Compared to other countries, there has been much discussion in Nepal about IPS, how do you see such debates in Kathmandu?

The evolving debates in Nepal on the IPS and the Indo-Pacific as a geopolitical plus geo-economic region expectedly reflects the permutations and combinations resulting from Nepal’s own perception of its core development needs and security imperatives. With the Nepalese parliament ratifying the US engineered Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), Beijing smells a brewing concoction of American infringement on its growing strategic footprints in South Asia and the Himalayas, in particular. While the Himalayas witnessed US-China power tussle during the Cold War as well, it has traversed a long way from ideological rivalry through rapprochement to the new great power competition of the 21st century. 

Lately, the US is attempting to re-engage a mountainous Nepal in need for development aid and assistance, at a time when a proximate power like China looms large with its plans under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). At the same time, Nepal by dint of history and geography cannot ignore the overwhelming influence of India. The varying political views within Nepal and the pressures from Washington and Beijing witnessed during the negotiations leading to the ratification of the MCC is symptomatic of US-China competition trends witnessed across the larger Indo-Pacific region. How Kathmandu maximizes its gains and minimizes its losses amidst the Indo-Pacific geopolitics and geo-economics will be the test of Nepal’s diplomatic toolkit and the practice of its relative autonomy.

Monu Shah is a successful model and event organizer, known for his work in the glamor and pageant industry in Nepal. He hosts events as well and is great at it. He’s also the face behind nearly 50 Nepali music videos, featuring in hit tracks like ‘Chakhewa Jodi’, ‘Fasayo’, ‘Timro Yaad Bhulauna’, ‘Prem Na Hundo Ho’, ‘Saash’, and many more. He’s also the proud owner of  ‘Shah Studio and Company Pvt Ltd’ which not only hosts modeling events but is also involved in music, advertisement, and movie production.

After completing school in his hometown Dhanusha, Shah moved to Kathmandu for further studies. While in Kathmandu, he got interested in acting and decided to pursue it, and he has been doing so for the past seven years. Shah says that the more he explored, the more he got enraptured with acting and modeling. Watching Nepali actor Najir Husen’s performances on theater and screen was a turning point for him. “It ignited something deep within me and I knew there was no going back,” he says. 

Husen’s acting career became Shah’s guiding light. He aspired to follow in his footsteps. Shah enrolled himself in a theater group. Following that, he also participated in the Mr Teen competitions. This, he believes, was what later paved the way for him to become the showstopper at various fashion shows in Nepal. 

As his popularity grew, he landed roles in various music videos and advertisements for brands like Budweiser and some dairy products. He also got the chance to collaborate with different industries. With time and experience, he is now able to organize fashion runways and pageant events with ease. He is happy with the place he has managed to carve for himself in theater and the music industry. Now, his heart is set on doing cinemas where he can showcase his talents as a performer.

As someone in the public eye, he’s no stranger to challenges. He says he approaches them with optimism. For him, authenticity is the key to success. He stays true to himself without getting caught up in comparisons or competition with anyone. “I deal with every challenge with a positive mindset and I use them as valuable lessons to improve myself,” he says.

He works hard to stay updated, comes up with new ideas, and is always open to learning. Shah says, “Each experience teaches me something valuable, making me better at what I do.” Two years ago, he organized an event called ‘Face of Rajdhani’ which became a big success and helped him learn and grow. He considers it to be a turning point that boosted his event management career. 

He comes from the Tarai and feels stories need to emphasize inclusiveness so that our society can embrace uniqueness rather than fear it. He confesses he has struggled with stereotyping and that if he had let it stop him, he would have gotten nowhere. But it can dampen your spirits, he says. 

He says that he wants his achievements to go beyond personal success. He wants to be a role model to those who want to build a career in the entertainment industry. As for his work in the fashion scene, he is intent on supporting local and sustainable brands and showcasing the talents of Nepali artisans. 

“I’m selective about the work I do. I want it to inspire and uplift people and communities, especially the younger generation,” he says. Shah has plans to organize events that match international standards so that new faces and talents get the opportunities they need to grow. 

As of now, he’s working on plans to host an award event called ‘Kollywood Night’ to celebrate the hard work of Nepali artists and producers. He’s also gearing up to step into the global spotlight as an organizer for some big international events.

The consumer price inflation in Nepal is expected to remain high at 6.7 percent in Fiscal Year 2024, close to the central bank's 6.5 percent ceiling, due to VAT exemptions removal, India's food export restrictions, and increased paddy minimum support prices.

However, inflation is forecasted to decline to 6 percent in FY25 and 5.5 percent in FY26, driven by global commodity price moderation and domestic price containment through monetary policy. Projected lower inflation in India may also help reduce domestic inflation via the currency peg, mitigating imported inflation, the World Bank (WB) stated in its Nepal Development Update (April 2024) it unveiled on Tuesday.

According to the WB, Nepal's economic growth is set to rebound, from 1.9 percent in FY23 to a forecast 3.3 percent in FY24. Growth is then projected to further accelerate to 5 percent on average, over FY25-26. This recovery is largely attributed to the easing of monetary policy, assuming productive use of private sector credit. Additionally, reforms to improve the business environment could attract more private investment, further boosting medium-term growth prospects.

The services sector is expected to be the key driver of growth in the coming years. Accommodation and food services are poised to benefit significantly from the rise in tourist arrivals. The ongoing construction of new five-star hotels and government policies supporting real estate loans are expected to further stimulate the accommodation sub- sector.

Meanwhile, the industrial sector is expected to grow, buoyed by significant expansions in electricity generation capacity, fostering a more conducive environment for industrial activities. However, agricultural growth is projected to slow down due to various factors, including the outbreak of lumpy skin disease among livestock and a decrease in paddy production growth.

The current account balance is forecasted to return to surplus in FY24, driven by robust remittance growth and a narrowing trade deficit, but is expected to narrow subsequently as remittances taper off and the trade deficit expands.

The trade deficit is expected to improve in the medium term, falling below its FY23 level. This is due to a projected decline in goods imports in FY24, although imports are expected to rebound in FY25 and FY26. Goods exports, particularly in electricity, are expected to increase. While services exports could rise with tourism recovery, services imports may surpass exports due to continued emigration. Despite efforts to attract more foreign direct investment, inflows are likely to remain modest.

Nepal's fiscal deficit is poised to decrease significantly from its peak in FY23 (about 6 percent of GDP), stabilizing around 3 percent of GDP in the medium term, despite a projected higher deficit in FY24 compared to the government's revised forecast. Revenue is expected to rise to 20.1 percent of GDP by FY26, supported by robust GDP growth and increased goods imports. Meanwhile, spending is expected to increase to 22.8 percent of GDP by FY26, driven by enhanced execution of public investment.

The National Project Bank’s integrated guidelines, introduced in March 2023, aim to streamline project development and prioritization, contributing to more effective capital spending by FY25. Financing for the fiscal deficit will likely come from external concessional borrowing and domestic sources. However, public debt is projected to decline to 40.8 percent of GDP by FY26 from its FY23 peak because of higher economic growth.

The forecast is subject to both domestic and external risks. Externally, geopolitical uncertainty could trigger a rise in commodity prices, impacting all sectors. A growth slowdown in partner countries might also lead to a drop in remittances and tourism, hindering economic growth. Persistent inflation expectations and lower domestic demand could further dampen economic activity. Natural disasters pose additional risks to sustaining welfare gains.  Finally, frequent political changes, a top headwind for businesses for over a decade, could continue to deter private investment.

Nepal's poverty rate fell due to migration and remittances, alongside consumption increases. The recent nationally household survey data from the Nepal Living Standard Survey 2022/23 shows a large decline in poverty from 25 percent to just 3.6 percent between 2011 and 2023 (using the 2011 National Poverty Line). The prosperity gap and inequality also reduced over the same period. However, challenges persist with a weak labor market and limited social assistance, posing risks amid economic and climate shocks.

Overall, H1FY24 data corroborated the structural challenges facing Nepal's economy.

On the fiscal front, the Nepal Development Update highlighted the need to strengthen the execution and efficiency of capital expenditure to boost economic growth, as well as the importance of reducing dependence on imports tax revenue.

Sound and consistent monetary policy will also be key to boosting confidence and stimulating economic growth. Addressing the increasing level of non-performing loans in the financial sector is crucial to strengthen financial stability and support private investment. On the external side, the high dependency on remittance inflows exposes the country to external shocks. Thus, there's a need to strengthen Nepal's international competitiveness for other sources of external earnings, such as tourism and foreign direct investment, by boosting exports of goods.