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Kathmandu Metropolitan City Mayor Balendra Shah, popularly known as Balen, continues to enjoy significant support among young voters, though his popularity has shown signs of decline following the GenZ protests. Critics argue that his inability to respond effectively to incidents of vandalism and arson during the Sept 8–9 protests dented his image as a mayor.

As a result, it remains uncertain whether Shah commands the same level of public support he did during the 2022 local elections. Despite this uncertainty, Shah remains a key political figure among emerging and alternative political forces, at least in perception. 

Several newly-formed parties appear eager to secure his backing ahead of upcoming elections. A few weeks ago, Kulman Ghising, who recently launched the Ujyalo Nepal Party, met Shah seeking his support whereas on Dec 22, Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) Chair Rabi Lamichhane held discussions with Shah, fueling speculation about possible political collaboration.

Balen has given a clear signal that he supports emerging political forces challenging traditional parties, but it remains uncertain whether he will publicly endorse or align himself with any of them. So far, his message suggests support for new political parties but it is unclear whether he would engage in active politics like Rabi. 

A case in point: After the GenZ protests, the Nepali Army reportedly offered him the premiership, but he declined it. Although it is unclear whether these new political forces will unite, there is a growing sentiment among them that electoral cooperation is essential to challenge the dominance of traditional parties—namely the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML. This view has also come from several self-proclaimed GenZ leaders, who are pressing alternative political groups to form a united front. Among the new parties, the Rabi Lamichhane-led Rastriya Swatantra Party remains the most influential. Emerging as the fourth-largest party in the House of Representatives in the 2022 elections, the RSP disrupted Nepal’s conventional political landscape.

To unite emerging political forces, Balen has initiated consultations with political leaders, GenZ representatives, artists, media professionals, and members of civil society. Over the past few years, he has remained in continuous dialogue with people from all walks of life, including the political leaders from major political parties. Senior political leaders, including former prime minister Baburam Bhattarai, have met Balen Shah. 

Although the party faced internal setbacks after the GenZ movement, including the departure of some key leaders, it partially recovered through unification with the Bibeksheel Party. After his recent release from jail, Lamichhane has intensified political consultations. He met Prime Minister Sushila Karki to pledge the RSP’s support to the government. However, his meeting with Mayor Shah attracted wider attention and triggered renewed debate over the possible consolidation of new political forces ahead of the March 5 elections. Such an alliance, if it materializes, could pose a serious challenge to Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML.

Despite facing multiple charges related to cooperative fraud, Lamichhane continues to enjoy personal popularity. A strong communicator, he has a distinct ability to dominate headlines and connect directly with the public. He is skilled in the art of communication as he can share his ideas, feelings and information clearly and effectively, while also listening to and responding to his supporters. Unlike leaders of traditional parties, Lamichhane’s appeal is largely personality-driven rather than party-based. Many supporters voted for him as an individual rather than for the RSP as a political party. Therefore, whether the RSP can sustain its growth in Lamichhane’s absence is a moot question.

In contrast, Balen does not directly communicate with the masses. Since becoming the mayor of Kathmandu, he has rarely engaged with the public or faced the media. Instead, he often uses social media platforms to vent his anger and criticize mainstream political parties. Like Lamichhane, Balen also stokes anti–mainstream party sentiment. At the same time, he has not shown any clear ideological inclination.

But Lamichhane and Balen both are non-ideological. Their stance on key constitutional issues—including federalism and full commitment to the 2015 Constitution—remains ambiguous. Notably, during last year’s pro-monarchy protests, the RSP maintained silence. 

Nevertheless, Lamichhane avoids conventional political jargon and focuses instead on governance failures and everyday problems facing the people—a strategy that resonates with frustrated voters. Lamichhane was widely popular until two years ago; however, allegations related to cooperative fraud have affected his public standing.

This populist appeal gives Lamichhane the potential to draw voters away from the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML, particularly in urban constituencies. If the RSP, the Ujyalo Nepal Party, Balendra Shah and other alternative forces form an electoral alliance, it could significantly erode the traditional voter base of mainstream parties, at least in urban areas.

However, these new political forces face structural limitations. Their organizational presence in rural areas remains weak, and they lack strong networks in the Tarai region. While they managed notable urban victories in 2022 despite a limited organization base, sustaining and expanding such success will be more challenging without strong grassroots foundations.

Since the 2022 elections, the RSP has expanded its organizational reach, but its rural penetration remains limited. Still, rising anti-establishment sentiment and public frustration with traditional parties may push alternative forces toward unity. If these parties manage to coordinate effectively, they could emerge as a serious electoral threat—if not by winning outright, then by decisively weakening the dominance of Nepal’s long-established political parties.

Leaders argue that if there is an electoral alliance among the new political forces, with open backing from figures like Balen, it could force the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML into an electoral alliance of their own. The two key developments—Rabi Lamichhane’s release from jail and his meeting with Shah—have alarmed mainstream political parties. At the same time, major political parties are holding regular meetings to chart their strategies.

The optics were striking. On the day KP Oli secured his third term as CPN-UML chair, Rabi Lamichhane emerged from custody a free man. As Nepali media dissected the moment and its aftershocks, verbal hostilities between the two former political twins resumed almost instantly. The result has been a surge in media frenzy—and the transformation of a consequential political moment into yet another episode of mass entertainment.

Oli and Lamichhane share not one but many similarities. Both possess tongues that rarely stumble. They repeat the same lie umpteen times till it sounds ‘true’. These Nepali incarnations of Goebbels have, on the strength of rhetoric alone, turned their parties into private clubs and their leaders and cadres into mere operatives.

They do nothing for anyone other than themselves—indeed, they do not even think about it—but they keep covering the truth with their palms, claiming everything they do is for the country and the people. They are factories of misinformation and disinformation, as well as proponents of the “deep state” and conspiracy theories. Whatever they say becomes party policy, program, and ideology. Thus, on one side stands “Oli ba,” and on the other “Rabi dai.” Though their lineage may differ, both are gods within their respective parties. They openly declare that they can never be wrong.

Both face serious allegations. Oli is confronted with numerous corruption-related questions, including grave accusations in the Giribandhu Tea Estate land scandal. Yet, by placing loyalists throughout state institutions—from the Supreme Court to the Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority—he has remained untouched, like water rolling off a duck’s back. Rabi, on the other hand, faces charges of cooperative fraud, organized crime, illicit wealth and an ongoing criminal case over dual passport. While the cooperative and illicit wealth cases are civil, organized crime and dual passport are criminal offenses. If the judgment in either of the two cases goes against him, his political career will be over. That is why he desperately reaches the Ministry of Home Affairs—to suppress the cases. 

Once the UML–Congress government was formed, his usefulness as a 21-seat bloc ended. Subsequently, he was not only suspended as an MP but also spent a long time behind bars.

On the basis of evidence, Ravi is weak in these cases, but by hiring top-tier lawyers he has not only exploited every loophole in the law, he has also not hesitated to engage in bench shopping when necessary. Most recently, he had lawyers fall “ill” twice until a favorable bench took shape. On the third attempt, with a bench to his liking, the hearing proceeded and—for the first time in Nepal’s judicial history—an extraordinary decision was made to free him. This has raised serious questions about the judge’s competence and allegations of bench shopping, which have now reached the Judicial Council as a formal complaint.

Those raising questions have even pointed fingers at Prime Minister Sushila Karki, who herself is a retired chief justice. Notably, Karki had been calling charges against Lamichhane as fabricated, and, upon his release, she rolled out the red carpet at Baluwatar for him. But let’s not forget that Lamichhane is still an accused in state-led cases involving serious charges, including organized crime.

Welcoming a defendant of the state at the official residence of the head of government is hardly appropriate. In this context, suspicions have arisen that Lamichhane would not have been able to come out on bail had Karki not been the PM. Some even say Lamichhane was set free simply to counter Oli, who has been openly attacking PM Karki.

No sooner was he released than Lamichhane threw his weight behind the government and lashed out at efforts to restore the House, calling them a conspiracy. He went further, without naming Oli, by saying that “some forces who fled to disrupt elections are active; there is no need for that—once you win the party election, you can win the general election as well.” Oli, meanwhile, has questioned the verdict and the competence of the judge. The UML chief has accused Lamichhane of returning his favor with hostility, adding that he had played no role whatsoever in the latter’s arrest or release.

Indeed, Oli has contributed significantly to bringing Lamichhane to where he is today. When Lamichhane came to Nepal in 2015 on a family visa using an American passport, it was Oli who allowed him to host the program ‘Sidha Kura Prime Minister Sanga’ on Nepal Television. Ironically, that very job—taken while on a visa that did not permit employment—became a noose around his neck, ultimately forcing him to renounce his US citizenship. In the meantime, he also obtained a Nepali passport, and that dual passport has become the Achilles’ heel of his political life.

Oli also played a decisive role in making Lamichhane deputy prime minister and home minister twice. The UML chief defended Ravi by pushing to defer the dual passport case and opposing the cooperative fraud case. Their alliance lasted till the formation of the UML-Congress coalition government under Oli in mid-2024.

However, suspicions have now emerged that all this may have been part of Oli’s strategy to ultimately disgrace Lamichhane and end his political career. It cannot simply be dismissed as coincidence that Ravi landed in jail while Oli was prime minister. Having understood the inner story of his own political rise and fall, Lamichhane has since been locked in a constant power struggle with Oli.

There is no need to wait for Sunday to say this: between the two, it is no longer just fierce political rivalry—it has escalated into outright enmity. Lamichhane believes Oli is the one who sent him to jail; Oli sees Lamichhane, equally eloquent, as a challenge to his politics. Both seem to have concluded that only by sidelining the other can their own political fortunes advance.

Oli and Lamichhane stand on opposite sides regarding the Karki government and the elections it announced after dissolving parliament. Lamichhane has not only recognized this government but has fully supported it, calling Oli’s push for restoring the House a conspiracy. His firm stance that elections must be held on the announced date of March 5 under any circumstances has strengthened the government’s election campaign. Meanwhile, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, chair of the Maoist party—the third-largest force in the dissolved parliament—has also entered the election campaign, saying there is no alternative to elections.

The country is now almost sharply divided over the elections scheduled for March 5. The UML and Congress establishments favor restoring parliament, joined by some smaller parties that were part of Oli’s previous government. Reports suggest this camp is nearing a majority of the dissolved House and is preparing to approach the court with supplementary petitions seeking restoration.

On one hand, the government and the Election Commission insist elections will be held no matter what. On the other hand, Oli is not only saying elections won’t happen but is openly mocking the idea. Deuba may want to follow Oli’s lead, but strong pro-election sentiment within Congress prevents it from openly opposing elections. Leaders of parties not represented in the dissolved House publicly pray for elections yet cannot deviate from their factional party lines. Fearing they may not get tickets, they remain silent.

All existing circumstances appear to favor elections. There is consensus that elections are the only way to put the constitution back on track. If elections are held, Oli too will have no choice but to participate. Still, there is no certainty that elections will happen. Suspicions persist that this government is being run by some invisible force that may not want elections.

This may all be just another conspiracy theory. Yet, at a time when the constitution is not fully functioning and various domestic and foreign interest groups are raising their heads, it is hard to dismiss the possibility that something is quietly brewing. Nepal’s state apparatus has never reached such a fragile juncture.

Whether or not to restore the parliament? The ball is in the court of law. In recent times, Nepal’s judiciary has become the umpire of politics—no one knows when or for what foul it will blow the whistle. Judges increasingly resemble party activists, delivering verdicts largely aligned with party interests. One of the judges who released Lamichhane on bail, Justice Acharya, was previously the district secretary of the Arghakhanchi Congress before his appointment.

At present, the Supreme Court includes justices appointed on the quotas of Oli and Deuba, who are themselves litigants seeking the restoration of the parliament. Pressure from Dahal may also be exerted through them to secure a favorable verdict. If the pressure works, parliament will be restored, and elections will not happen. But a court already weakened by the GenZ movement may take a middle path—scheduling hearings only after March 5. Once elections happen, the court could rule, based on precedents, that restoration has become irrelevant since a new parliament has already taken shape.

The greatest challenge in global politics today is populism, with authoritarians, who hijack internal party democracy and climb to power, ruling the world. Oli and Lamichhane are Nepal’s “models” of this trend. That is why both are a serious problem for Nepal, not the solution, as these verbose stuntmen want to rule by feeding the public fodder in the form of speeches.

In any case, once again, Oli and Lamichhane stand face to face in Nepal. At present, Oli ba’s children and Rabi dai’s brothers and sisters are tearing into each other nakedly on the streets and on social media. Oli’s followers were already at that level; now Lamichhane’s supporters have join-ed them. Watching this spectacle, one feels that Oli and Lamichhane are cult leaders, and those holding various positions in UML and RSP their devotees.

Otherwise, what greater farce could there be than the grand procession with bands and fanfare when Lamichhane—arrested on criminal charges such as organized crime and fraud—walked free on bail, by effectively accepting the charges against him?

This columnist has consistently argued that Lamichhane and Oli share the same political lineage: populism. In that sense, they are political look-alikes ‘Swange Bhai’, persons of the same political DNA. Populism is the greatest challenge facing global politics today. Therefore, both are a problem for Nepal, not the solution.

Be that as it may, this “brotherly” fight has once again begun from a new front. Who will win and who will lose? Let’s leave this question to the future. One thing, though, is certain: whoever wins, Nepal and the Nepali people will lose, for these new Badshahs of populism are no longer just individuals; they have become a tendency. The mindset of only I matter is the problem—not the solution.

Kathmandu Metropolitan City Mayor Balendra Shah, popularly known as Balen, continues to enjoy significant support among young voters, though his popularity has shown signs of decline following the GenZ protests. Critics argue that his inability to respond effectively to incidents of vandalism and arson during the Sept 8–9 protests dented his image as a mayor.

As a result, it remains uncertain whether Shah commands the same level of public support he did during the 2022 local elections. Despite this uncertainty, Shah remains a key political figure among emerging and alternative political forces, at least in perception.

Several newly-formed parties appear eager to secure his backing ahead of upcoming elections. A few weeks ago, Kulman Ghising, who recently launched the Ujyalo Nepal Party, met Shah seeking his support whereas on Dec 22, Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) Chair Rabi Lamichhane held discussions with Shah, fueling speculation about possible political collaboration.

Balen has given a clear signal that he supports emerging political forces challenging traditional parties, but it remains uncertain whether he will publicly endorse or align himself with any of them. So far, his message suggests support for new political parties but it is unclear whether he would engage in active politics like Rabi. 

To unite emerging political forces, Balen has initiated consultations with political leaders, Gen Z representatives, artists, media professionals, and members of civil society. Over the past few years, he has remained in continuous dialogue with people from all walks of life.

A case in point: After the GenZ protests, the Nepali Army reportedly offered him the premiership, but he declined it.

Although it is unclear whether these new political forces will unite, there is a growing sentiment among them that electoral cooperation is essential to challenge the dominance of traditional parties—namely the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML.

This view has also come from several self-proclaimed GenZ leaders, who are pressing alternative political groups to form a united front. Among the new parties, the Rabi Lamichhane-led Rastriya Swatantra Party remains the most influential.

Emerging as the fourth-largest party in the House of Representatives in the 2022 elections, the RSP disrupted Nepal’s conventional political landscape.

Although the party faced internal setbacks after the GenZ movement, including the departure of some key leaders, it partially recovered through unification with the Bibeksheel Party.

After his recent release from jail, Lamichhane has intensified political consultations. He met Prime Minister Sushila Karki to pledge the RSP’s support to the government.

However, his meeting with Mayor Shah attracted wider attention and triggered renewed debate over the possible consolidation of new political forces ahead of the March 5 elections. Such an alliance, if it materializes, could pose a serious challenge to Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML.

Despite facing multiple charges related to cooperative fraud, Lamichhane continues to enjoy personal popularity. A strong communicator, he has a distinct ability to dominate headlines and connect directly with the public. He is skilled in the art of communication as he can share his ideas, feelings and information clearly and effectively, while also listening to and responding to his supporters.

Unlike leaders of traditional parties, Lamichhane’s appeal is largely personality-driven rather than party-based. Many supporters voted for him as an individual rather than for the RSP as a political party. Therefore, whether the RSP can sustain its growth in Lamichhane’s absence is a moot question.
In contrast, Balen does not directly communicate with the masses.

Since becoming the mayor of Kathmandu, he has rarely engaged with the public or faced the media. Instead, he often uses social media platforms to vent his anger and criticize mainstream political parties. Like Lamichhane, Balen also stokes anti–mainstream party sentiment. At the same time, he has not shown any clear ideological inclination.

But Lamichhane and Balen both are non-ideological.  Their stance on key constitutional issues—including federalism and full commitment to the 2015 Constitution—remains ambiguous. Notably, during last year’s pro-monarchy protests, the RSP maintained silence. 
Nevertheless, Lamichhane avoids conventional political jargon and focuses instead on governance failures and everyday problems facing the people—a strategy that resonates with frustrated voters. Lamichhane was widely popular until two years ago; however, allegations related to cooperative fraud have affected his public standing.

This populist appeal gives Lamichhane the potential to draw voters away from the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML, particularly in urban constituencies. If the RSP, the Ujyalo Nepal Party, Balendra Shah and other alternative forces form an electoral alliance, it could significantly erode the traditional voter base of mainstream parties, at least in urban areas.

However, these new political forces face structural limitations. Their organizational presence in rural areas remains weak, and they lack strong networks in the Tarai region. While they managed notable urban victories in 2022 despite a limited organization base, sustaining and expanding such success will be more challenging without strong grassroots foundations.

Since the 2022 elections, the RSP has expanded its organizational reach, but its rural penetration remains limited. Still, rising anti-establishment sentiment and public frustration with traditional parties may push alternative forces toward unity.

If these parties manage to coordinate effectively, they could emerge as a serious electoral threat—if not by winning outright, then by decisively weakening the dominance of Nepal’s long-established political parties.

Leaders argue that if there is an electoral alliance among the new political forces, with open backing from figures like Balen, it could force the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML into an electoral alliance of their own.

The two key developments—Rabi Lamichhane’s release from jail and his meeting with Shah—have alarmed mainstream political parties. At the same time, major political parties are holding regular meetings to chart their strategies.

The Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) led by Rajendra Lingden and the Rastriya Prajatantra Party Nepal led by Kamal Thapa have unified their parties.

Lingden and Thapa signed a unification agreement on Wednesday. 

The two parties have agreed to organize a unification declaration program next week. The RPP had 14 seats in the dissolved House of Representatives, while the Thapa-led party did not have a single seat.

Both sides have not disclosed details about the structure or leadership of the new party. They signed a brief agreement stating their mutual commitment to party unification. Both are known as royalist parties.