ApEx Newsletter: Political uncertainty and security concerns ahead of March polls

Uncertainty over the March 5 national elections looms large, as political parties remain unprepared. According to Prime Minister Sushila Karki, around 65 percent of election-related preparations have been completed. The government is also preparing a comprehensive security plan for the polls. However, concerns persist over whether Nepal Police can effectively maintain security, given its low morale and shortage of arms and ammunition. Defense analysts have ruled out deploying the Nepali Army on the frontline.

Meanwhile, the CPN-UML has taken to the streets in protest against the Karki-led government. The party organized demonstrations across local levels this week and has planned a series of mass protests in Kathmandu. It has refused to participate in elections conducted by the current government, calling it unconstitutional. The UML’s roadmap centers on the restoration of parliament, the formation of an all-party government, and the eventual conduct of early elections.

In contrast, the Nepali Congress remains without a clear and firm position, while the CPN (Maoist Centre) has expressed readiness to go to the polls. The Nepali Army, for its part, has already communicated to all stakeholders that it has no intention of taking over power, warning that such a move would only worsen the country’s political instability.

In the coming days, the focus will be on Nepal’s evolving political roadmap. Possible scenarios include a postponement of elections to April or May while allowing the Karki government to continue, or the formation of a consensus government among major political forces, followed by a new election announcement. Rumors have also surfaced about the possibility of a Chief Justice-led caretaker cabinet, similar to that of the 2013 second Constituent Assembly elections.

Adding to the uncertainty, President Ramchandra Paudel’s next move remains unclear. He had appointed Prime Minister Karki with the mandate to hold elections within six months. However, tensions between the two have reportedly grown after Karki dismissed the President’s proposal to include political party representatives in the cabinet. The President is also said to be dissatisfied with the lack of dialogue between the Prime Minister and political parties, a key prerequisite for holding credible elections.

However, the Election Commission (EC) has been active in engaging political parties to create a conducive environment for the polls. The EC is currently in consultations to finalize the election code of conduct.

Interestingly, not only traditional parties but even new political groups have expressed reluctance to hold elections on March 5, citing inadequate preparation time. Some representatives of the GenZ movement, including Sudan Gurung, have warned that they will not accept elections unless their demands are addressed first. Political observers estimate that it could take at least a year to manage the ongoing transition.

Security tensions also remain high. The Nepal Police has arrested around 500 people across the country for their alleged involvement in arson and vandalism during the Sept 8–9 protests. Critics, however, argue that the protesters should not be criminalized, as the demonstrations were a form of revolt. Earlier, Home Minister Om Prakash Aryal’s directive not to arrest protesters had sparked opposition from Nepal Police’s top brass. Now, Aryal finds himself under fire from both GenZ protestors and political parties.

Within the Nepali Congress, internal disputes over its upcoming general convention remain unresolved. There are growing fears that the party could split if it fails to settle the issue soon. The party has also begun collecting signatures from its lawmakers, a move interpreted as preparation to push for parliament restoration.

Meanwhile, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, now leading the Nepali Communist Party, has emphasized his readiness for elections but remains open to parliament restoration. He has succeeded in bringing 12 fringe communist parties under his fold and has once again become a vocal critic of KP Sharma Oli. In a related development, Bhim Rawal, who had left UML a few years ago, has joined Dahal’s NCP.

The number of political parties registered with the Election Commission has now exceeded 125, with around two dozen new applications under review. Following the GenZ protests, which toppled major political parties from power, a new wave of actors—including businesspeople, independent politicians, celebrities, and others—have shown interest in joining politics. Since the March 5 election announcement, the EC has received 21 new party registration applications.

For comparison, in the 2022 elections, 116 political parties were registered with the commission, though only 87 participated. Many of the new parties believe they can attract public support amid widespread disillusionment with mainstream political forces that have dominated power since 1990.

In other developments, President Paudel has removed Madhesh Province Head Sumitra Subedi and appointed Surendra Labh in her place. Meanwhile, Dan Bahadur Karki has taken charge as Inspector General of Nepal Police, succeeding Chandra Kuber Khapung. The new IGP faces the formidable challenge of boosting police morale and ensuring that the force can provide foolproof election security.

Controversial businessman Durga Prasai is reportedly planning street protests demanding the restoration of the monarchy. The government, however, is considering stopping the demonstrations, arguing they could further destabilize the fragile security environment. Home Minister Aryal has already held preliminary talks with Prasai, who has presented a 27-point list of demands, several of which are considered unrealistic and unconstitutional.

In another political development, Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) Chairman Rajendra Lingden and Rastriya Prajatantra Party-Nepal Chairman Kamal Thapa held talks this week to explore party unification. In the aftermath of the GenZ movement, polarization among royalist forces is intensifying, with discussions underway on whether to contest the elections or push for a broader movement.

Additionally, Cabinet Minister Kul Man Ghising has registered a new political party under the leadership of former energy secretary Anup Kumar Upadhyay. However, Home Minister Aryal has said he will not allow Ghising to form a new party. Ghising has faced criticism within the cabinet for his political involvement, with colleagues arguing that since he joined the government to facilitate elections within six months, his engagement in party politics is inappropriate.

Rush to register new parties for March 5 polls

The number of political parties registered with the Election Commission has now exceeded 125, and the figure is likely to rise further, as the commission is currently reviewing around two dozen new applications. Following the youth-led protests of Sept 8–9, which toppled the major political parties from power, a new wave of actors, — including businessmen, independent politicians, celebrities, and others, have shown interest in entering politics. Since the announcement of elections for March 5, the EC has received 21 applications seeking party registration.

In the 2022 elections, 116 political parties were registered with the commission, though only 87 of them participated. Many of the new parties believe they can gain public support amid growing disillusionment with the mainstream political forces that have held power, in one way or another, since 1990. Their rhetoric is heavily anti-establishment, resonating with the agenda of the current government led by Sushila Karki, whose primary goal appears to be discrediting the traditional political parties.

The youth who led the September protests have also intensified anti-mainstream sentiment, supported by sections of the apolitical elite and intellectuals who feel sidelined by established parties. As a result, the registration of new political parties poses a direct challenge to the traditional political forces, the very targets of the Sept 8–9 violent protests.

However, most of these new parties lack a charismatic leader capable of mobilizing the masses, like Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) chair Rabi Lamichhane did in the 2022 national elections. They also lack the grassroots organizational structures needed to reach rural voters,  a limitation that even RSP faced, as its support base remained largely urban.

Meanwhile, traditional parties have failed to reform or connect with the growing youth population. Leadership change within the major political parties appears unlikely before the next elections. While the new political parties may not emerge as a decisive force, they could still attract portions of Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML voters, as RSP did in 2022.

Harka Sampang, mayor of Dharan Sub-Metropolitan City and a popular independent figure, has registered his own political party to expand his influence beyond Dharan. Known for his unconventional style, such as personally working as a daily-wage laborer in municipal development projects, Sampang has captured national attention through his humor and wit, often going viral on social media. After the September protests, he claimed that the Prime Minister and Nepal Army had invited him for talks. However, it remains unclear whether the army sought to defuse potential unrest involving his supporters or to recognize him as a political stakeholder, with many believing the former to be more likely.

Another prominent figure, Netra Bikram Chand, the Maoist leader who had long opposed the peace process, constitution drafting, and all elections since 2013, has now registered his Nepal Communist Party to contest the upcoming polls. Senior party leader Khadka Bahadur Bishwakarma confirmed their participation. Once an advocate of urban revolt, Chand’s decision marks a notable shift toward electoral politics.

Business circles, too, are entering the political scene. Birendra Bahadur Basnet, the owner of Buddha Air, has registered a new party called the Gatishil Loktantrik Party, chaired by Dinesh Prasai, a Jawaharlal Nehru University graduate. The party reportedly enjoys backing from Kathmandu’s elite circles. Basnet, who has strong media visibility, is expected to contest the elections.

Similarly, Kul Man Ghising, popularly known as the “light man” for ending Nepal’s 15–16-hour daily load-shedding crisis, has helped form a new political party under the leadership of Anup Kumar Upadhyay, a former energy secretary. Although Ghising has not taken any official position within the party, he has long been associated with its formation efforts. He currently serves as a cabinet minister in Sushila Karki’s government, which is mandated to conduct the March 5 elections.

In Nepal’s first parliamentary elections in 1958, only nine political parties participated. The number began rising rapidly after 1990, and especially after the first Constituent Assembly elections in 2008.

Registering a political party in Nepal is not a complicated process. The Political Parties Act requires the signatures of at least 500 Nepali voters, along with letters of commitment for party membership and certified copies of citizenship or voter identity cards.

Over the past three decades, only two parties — the Maoists in 2008 and the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) in 2022 — have witnessed sudden and unexpected political success. In the first Constituent Assembly elections, the Maoists emerged as the largest force with a commanding lead over NC and UML. In 2022, RSP won 20 parliamentary seats, while in the same year’s local elections, independent candidate Balendra Shah secured a landslide victory over the NC and UML candidates in Kathmandu.

Now, the political atmosphere once again appears favorable for new entrants. The major parties have been discredited for their failure to curb corruption and ensure good governance. The September 8–9 protests, during which the offices and homes of hundreds of political leaders were torched, have further weakened their standing — creating fertile ground for new political forces to rise.

COP30: Loss and Damage Fund opens for proposals

The first startup phase of the Fund for Loss and Damage was officially announced on Tuesday in Belem, marking a major milestone in operationalizing one of the most anticipated climate finance mechanisms. The Fund has now invited developing countries to submit proposals for support.

In Nepal, all accredited entities under the Global Environment Facility (GEF), Adaptation Fund (AF), and Green Climate Fund (GCF) are eligible to apply. According to Rajendra Prasad Mishra, secretary at the Ministry of Forests and Environment, efforts are underway to encourage both national and international organizations based in Nepal to apply and secure funding as soon as possible.

Among the eligible national entities are the National Trust for Nature Conservation (NTNC), Alternative Energy Promotion Centre (AEPC) and NIMB Bank. The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) is a recognized regional entity, while international organizations such as the UN agencies, WWF, IUCN, ADB, and the World Bank can also apply.

Speaking at the event, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell expressed determination for COP30 to deliver another major step forward in global climate action. “Every year I’m asked how I feel about the COP. And the answer is that I am determined,” Stiell said. “We are not starting from nothing—the Paris Agreement is delivering real progress. For the first time, global emissions are bending downward.”

He highlighted that the latest Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) could reduce emissions by 12 percent by 2035, a development he described as “a big deal.” Stiell emphasized that every fraction of a degree avoided will save millions of lives and billions of dollars in climate damages.

He further noted that renewable energy has now overtaken fossil fuels in global investment and surpassed coal as the world’s leading energy source. “Policies once unthinkable are now rippling through markets, and change is becoming unstoppable,” he said, calling clean energy “the greatest economic opportunity of this century.”

However, Stiell warned that despite real progress, global heating is already inflicting devastating impacts worldwide—from typhoons in the Philippines to hurricanes in the Americas. He urged countries to “accelerate in the Amazon,” stressing that the COP process must remain focused on people and the tangible benefits of climate action. “We will only win the fight against the climate crisis if all people in all nations can get a fair piece of the epic benefits,” Stiell said. “Now it’s time to hit the accelerator—for people, prosperity, and the planet.”

Adaptation has grown more important as countries fail to rein in climate-warming emissions enough to prevent extreme warming linked to increasingly frequent weather disasters across the planet. A UN report last month said developing countries alone would need up to $310bn every year by 2035 to prepare.

Where that money will come from is unclear. Ten of the world’s development banks, under pressure to free more cash for climate action, said on Monday they would continue to support the need. “Lives, well-being and jobs cannot be sustained where homes, schools, farms and businesses are under threat from flooding, drought, or other climate extremes,” the banks said in a statement. Last year, they channeled more than $26bn to low- and middle-income economies for adaptation.

Also, in the latest development, Ethiopia said it would host the COP32 in 2027. The more immediate choice of host for next year’s COP31 remains unresolved. Both Australia and Turkey are vying for it.

Nepal’s struggle to reduce plastic waste continues

As air pollution continues to choke the Kathmandu Valley, concerns over another major environmental crisis—plastic waste are mounting. Despite a series of ambitious government pledges to eliminate single-use plastics, implementation remains ineffective, and the problem is only getting worse.

Nepal first announced a ban on plastic bags in 2015, aiming to reduce non-biodegradable waste and protect major rivers. According to the government’s official gazette published on 1 April 2015, the production, import, sale, and use of plastic bags smaller than 20 inches wide, 35 inches long, and thinner than 40 microns were prohibited within the valley. The decision came into force on 14 April 2015, with plans to extend it nationwide. For a brief moment, the effort seemed successful—many citizens began carrying reusable bags, and plastic use in city markets visibly declined.

However, the devastating earthquake in 2015 and the subsequent Indian blockade derailed the momentum. The government’s focus shifted toward disaster relief and survival logistics, and plastic bags once again flooded the market. Relief efforts relied heavily on plastic packaging, further entrenching its use. In the years that followed, plastic bags made a full comeback, undermining years of environmental advocacy.

Since then, the government has made the same promise multiple times. In its annual budget speech for the fiscal year 2021/22, then Finance Minister Bishnu Paudel declared a complete ban on plastic bags thinner than 40 microns. This was the third such announcement by the federal government. “I have made arrangements to use cotton, jute or paper bags instead of plastic bags in all business houses including shopping malls and department stores,” Paudel stated, adding that companies replacing old plastic manufacturing machines would receive grants.

Yet, like previous declarations, the enforcement never materialized. Industrialists remained largely silent, with some expressing doubts about the feasibility of such a ban. Even the Kathmandu Metropolitan City (KMC) had pledged to make the city plastic-free within a year in its 2019/20 policy plan. That commitment, too, was abandoned without a single round of market monitoring.

Implementation efforts have been repeatedly hindered by external and internal factors. Apart from the 2015 disasters, protests by plastic industrialists and legal challenges have struck enforcement. In 2018, a writ petition filed at the Supreme Court by Explore Nepal Pvt. Ltd. temporarily halted the new ban. The court issued an interim order preventing the government from implementing its decision, leaving plastic production and use unchecked once again.

The Department of Environment’s monitoring drives have also been inconsistent. Local governments and district offices have often turned a blind eye to ongoing violations, making the ban little more than a paper directive. In 2023, the Ministry of Federal Affairs and General Administration once again announced a ban on plastic bags below 40 microns. The ministry’s secretary, Krishna Hari Pushkar, urged citizens to stop using thin plastic bags and called on all levels of government to enforce the rule.

According to a 2020 World Bank report, Nepal generates an estimated 4,900 tons of solid waste each day, with plastic waste accounting for about 13 percent of the total. According to the Waste Management Baseline Survey 2022, plastic accounted for 12 percent of household waste, 21 percent of institutional waste, and 22 percent of waste generated by commercial establishments. Yet, no tangible progress followed the 2023 announcement either. 

According to a 2024 World Bank report, Nepal generates around 60,000 tons of plastic waste annually, with a significant portion—nearly one-third—ending up in rivers that eventually flow into India and Ocean. Globally, about 8bn tons of plastic have accumulated in oceans, making the water increasingly acidic and threatening aquatic life. This pollution also affects the planet’s oxygen cycle, as oceans produce nearly 50 percent of the Earth’s oxygen, which is now under threat.

Environmental expert Ujjwal Upadhaya explains that globally, around 360m tons of plastic are produced each year, of which about 1m metric tons end up producing daily. When a plastic is formed, 6.1kg carbon emission is produced. 

Upadhaya further noted that studies in Brazil found microplastic particles in the brains of 33 deceased individuals, highlighting serious global health concerns. Similar research has yet to be conducted in Nepal. He added that the average person in Nepal carries an estimated 15 grams of microplastics in their body.

Moreover, the open burning of plastics releases dioxin gas, one of the most toxic pollutants, which remains concentrated at low altitudes, directly harming both humans and animals.

The Kathmandu Metropolitan City (KMC) also announced a ban on the open burning of waste and plastic materials to curb worsening air pollution during the winter months. According to the KMC Environment Department, the decision aims to reduce environmental and health risks linked to smoke and toxic emissions from burning plastics. Department Chief Sarita Rai emphasized that offenders will face a fine of Rs 10,000 per violation, noting that air pollution in the Valley spikes each winter due to widespread open burning. The ban prioritizes protecting vulnerable populations—especially children, the elderly, and people with respiratory or heart conditions. To ensure effective enforcement, KMC has launched awareness and monitoring campaigns under the Kathmandu Metropolitan City Environment and Natural Resources Conservation Act, 2020, and the Fiscal Act, 2025.

Plastics pose significant threats not only to the environment but also to public health. There are seven main types of plastic, each with distinct uses, recyclability, and health impacts. PET (Polyethylene Terephthalate) is commonly used in water and mineral bottles and can be recycled; however, once recycled, it should not be reused for drinking purposes as it may release harmful chemicals. Recent tests even found 75–85 units of microplastic particles in some water jars, raising serious health concerns. 

HDPE (High-Density Polyethylene), found in shampoo and detergent bottles, is recyclable and safer for reuse in non-food products. LDPE (Low-Density Polyethylene), used in plastic wraps and carry bags, is also recyclable but often poorly managed in Nepal. PP (Polypropylene), used for grain sacks (bora), bottle caps, and food containers, can be recycled if proper facilities are available. 

However, MLP (Multi-Layered Plastic)—commonly seen in chips and instant noodle packets—is known as “ugly plastic” because it is non-recyclable and harmful to both human health and the environment. Chemicals from such packaging can leach into food, posing risks especially to children, and Nepal currently lacks a system to monitor food packaging quality. PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride), used in pipes and wires, is difficult to recycle and releases toxic gases when burned. Finally, ABS (Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene), found in toys and electronic products, is one of the most hazardous plastics, as it is non-biodegradable and can release toxic substances that endanger both humans and animals.

Upadhaya said, “Burning of these plastics releases microplastics into the air, which we inhale. Some particles can enter the olfactory bulb—the part of the brain responsible for smell—potentially increasing the risk of brain strokes. Microplastics also travel down to the lungs, affecting vital organs such as the kidneys, liver, lungs, and heart.” He also said that when the body tries to cope with such damage, it can trigger the development of cancer, which ultimately harms our health.

According to a report by the Monterey Bay Aquarium, plastic does not biodegrade but breaks down into microplastics—particles less than 5 millimeters in size. These have been found everywhere, from the depths of the oceans to Antarctic snow, and even inside human lungs and bloodstreams.

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has confirmed microplastic traces in human organs such as the liver, kidneys, and placenta, raising alarm over potential health consequences. Similarly, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) reports that carcinogenic chemicals from plastics can leach into tap water, posing severe risks to human and ecological health.

Upadhaya said, “At present, Nepal mainly consumes salt imported from the ocean, which contains around five grams of microplastics per kilogram. People who regularly eat seafood tend to have even higher amounts of microplastics in their bodies.” He also noted that plastic pollution contributes to urban flooding by blocking drainage systems. According to him, “We cannot live without plastic, as it has become part of every aspect of our lives. However, the key is to reduce the use of the most harmful types, such as ABS plastic, and ensure that any plastic produced is properly recycled and responsibly disposed of.”

Recycling has often been promoted as a solution, but the challenges are alarming. Contamination from food residue, high processing costs, and limited infrastructure make large-scale recycling inefficient in Nepal. It reduces landfill waste, conserves natural resources like petroleum, prevents environmental contamination, and decreases marine pollution. Recycling also mitigates microplastic formation and promotes public health by reducing exposure to toxic substances.

Experts argue that government policy alone cannot solve the plastic crisis. Consumers must adopt more sustainable habits—using reusable shopping bags, avoiding over-packaged goods, and participating in recycling programs. Supporting eco-friendly businesses and community-led recycling initiatives can also foster long-term change. Sangita Tamang, a grocery shopkeeper said she is compelled to use plastic bags despite knowing their environmental impact. “Clothes bags are expensive, and customers don’t want to pay extra for them,” she explained. “People are willing to pay for reusable bags in big malls, but when small shopkeepers like us charge for them, they accuse us of trying to make more money. So, we are forced to keep using plastic bags,” she added with a note of frustration.

The number of animals consuming plastic waste is also on the rise, as many ingest it unknowingly and die as a result. Upadhaya cited an example from the National park, where wild animals died after choking on plastic. He explained that plastic pollution not only harms land animals but also affects aquatic life, leading to a decline in fish populations. This, in turn, impacts the livelihoods of people who depend on fishing. Species such as the gharial and dolphin are also declining as their food sources diminish due to increasing plastic contamination in rivers and water bodies.

Globally, plastic production has skyrocketed—from 1.5m metric tons in 1950 to 359m metric tons in 2018—with between 4.8 and 12.7m tons ending up in oceans annually, according to PlasticsEurope.

Several organizations in Nepal including Doko Recyclers, Khalisisi, Upcycle Nepal, and Eco Sathi Nepal are actively promoting recycling and sustainability. Through their initiatives, they aim to reduce waste and encourage environmentally responsible habits. However, their efforts alone are not enough. True change requires collective action—every citizen must understand the importance of sustainability, adopt eco-friendly practices, and help raise awareness to protect the environment for future generations.

By minimizing plastic use and promoting recycling, communities can move toward a cleaner and healthier environment. Moreover, a cleaner environment free from plastic waste greatly enhances overall quality of life. Upadhaya said that by minimizing the production of toxic plastics, we can slowly reduce the risk of the plastic. Recycling also plays a vital role in reducing environmental contaminants and fostering sustainable, healthy communities where people can live and thrive in harmony with nature. Nepal’s repeated failures to enforce its plastic bans reveal deep systemic weaknesses—from political will and industrial pressure to inadequate alternatives and public awareness. Strict enforcement, providing viable alternatives, and mobilizing citizens toward behavioral change. Without such collective effort, Kathmandu’s rivers, air, and soil may continue to bear the brunt of plastic pollution for generations to come.