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The Nepali Congress has once again pulled itself back from the brink. After weeks of infighting over the timing of its General Convention, the party’s rival factions have finally settled on holding the gathering in early January. This compromise has, for now, quieted calls from the dissident camp for a special convention. Still, the truce remains fragile. Lingering disputes over active membership lists and the selection of convention representatives continue to cast doubt on whether the event can proceed as planned.

Against this uncertain backdrop, the leadership race is already underway. With national elections set for March 5, the NC is grappling with a strategic dilemma: should it overhaul its leadership before going to the polls, or wait until after the election to avoid further internal turbulence? The establishment and reformist camps are pulling in opposite directions, and their tug-of-war is shaping the party’s pre-election mood.

Across the aisle, the CPN-UML is moving ahead with preparations for its own national convention, scheduled for Dec 13–15 in Kathmandu. Yet instead of the usual sense of momentum, insiders describe an unexpected fatigue within the party. Local representatives in several districts have shown limited interest in internal elections, raising concerns among senior leaders. Many fear that if the grassroots remain disengaged now, they may not mobilize effectively during the national campaign.

The convention itself is expected to stage a high-stakes showdown between incumbent chair KP Sharma Oli and senior leader Ishwar Pokhrel. Oli maintains that he welcomes democratic competition but warns that a bruising leadership battle could leave the party divided at a critical moment. His preferred path of reaching consensus and avoiding internal bloodshed reflects the anxiety within the party ahead of the March polls.

Meanwhile, one of Nepal’s most popular technocrats is venturing deeper into the political arena. Kul Man Ghising, celebrated for ending load-shedding during his tenure at the Nepal Electricity Authority and now serving as a minister in the Karki-led government, has been crisscrossing the country in what increasingly resembles a shadow political campaign.

Though Ghising holds no formal party post, he is widely perceived as the driving force behind the newly launched Ujyaalo Nepal Party, fronted by former energy secretary Anup Upadhyaya. His appearance as the chief guest at the party’s Dec 4 inauguration has sparked debate about whether a sitting minister should be helping build a political organization. The presence of former Rastriya Swatantra Party MP Sumana Shrestha added to speculation that the party may be attracting disenchanted reformists from across the political spectrum.

On the left, Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s Nepali Communist Party has begun staging large mass meetings nationwide in an effort to project unity and strength after months of defections and organizational stagnation. Despite skepticism from rivals, turnout has been substantial, suggesting that Nepal’s fragmented left may still command an energized base heading into the elections.

Amid this churn, new political outfits continue to emerge almost weekly. As a result, Kathmandu is buzzing with speculation about potential pre-election alliances among them. Many observers believe only a coordinated front can challenge the traditional parties, whose supporters are showing signs of deepening disillusionment. A unified bloc of new parties could reshape the electoral battlefield and force the NC, UML, and the Maoist Centre into a more defensive posture.

Foreign relations are also subtly influencing political conversations. KP Sharma Oli’s decision to attend China’s Victory Day parade in September has left lingering discomfort in Tokyo, where officials had hoped he would decline the invitation given the event’s wartime symbolism. Even so, Japan has continued its development partnership with Nepal without interruption. This year alone, it has signed a ¥2.8bn grant for emergency rehabilitation of the flood-damaged Sindhuli Road and approved a Rs 31bn loan to upgrade the congested Koteshwor intersection. As one senior diplomat put it, “Japan has helped Nepal without strategic strings for decades. Future prime ministers should avoid needless missteps.”

Nepal also received a diplomatic boost this week with the appointment of Lt Gen Ganesh Kumar Shrestha as the new Force Commander of the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei. A veteran with 36 years of service, Shrestha has led major divisions within the Nepali Army and served as Sector Commander in UNMISS, further reinforcing Nepal’s reputation as a committed peacekeeping nation.

Back home, negotiations between the government and the GenZ protest groups, whose nationwide demonstrations in September shook the political establishment, have stalled. More than 50 youth groups have submitted demands centered on swift and credible action against corruption. Recent high-profile arrests have raised hopes that the government may finally be allowing state institutions to act without political interference. Whether this represents genuine reform or tactical appeasement remains one of the capital’s most debated questions.

Despite the political noise, the Election Commission has begun setting up offices across the country in preparation for the March 5 polls. The government is reportedly preparing to recommend several electoral reforms to President Ram Chandra Poudel, including the introduction of a “None of the Above” (NOTA) option on the ballot—a proposal gaining support amid widespread frustration with political elites.

Yet major parties appear more preoccupied with internal disputes than with election readiness. A new theory circulating in Kathmandu suggests the government may even consider postponing the polls to give newly formed parties more breathing room. However, President Poudel is said to be pushing firmly for elections to proceed on schedule, warning that any delay could trigger a constitutional crisis.

Since the formation of the Sushila Karki–led government following  Sept 8–9 protests, there has been minimal engagement between Kathmandu and Beijing. In the aftermath of the GenZ protests, Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Chen Song met Prime Minister Sushila Karki and other government ministers to convey Beijing’s concerns, but there have been no high-level visits between Kathmandu and Beijing. 

Typically, October, November and December see a high number of visits as part of preparations for the coming year. This time, however, not only have the visits from China declined, but overall Chinese activities have also slowed. A China watcher noted, “Beijing may be in a wait-and-see position as the political developments unfold in Nepal.”

Similarly, Beijing’s viewpoint may be that since the current government cannot take major policy decisions, it is better to wait for the new government to be formed after the elections. According to people familiar with the matter, Beijing has conveyed two messages to Nepal following the GenZ protests. First, what happened on Sept 8–9 and the political course that followed is Nepal’s internal affair. Second, China has strongly raised its security concerns due to the open involvement of some Tibetan groups in those protests.

Over the past decade, China’s political, economic and security influence in Nepal has grown, increasing Beijing’s confidence that any government in power will refrain from jeopardizing its security interests related to Tibetan activities. However, the events of September have renewed Beijing’s worries.

Thus, after the GenZ movement, Beijing is experiencing both confidence and insecurity regarding its security interests. China is now closely monitoring the activities of the Tibetan community as well as broader political developments, including cabinet formation. Beijing believes that there can be no substantial progress on the Belt and Road Initiative under the current government. For this reason, China has adopted a policy of maintaining only a working relationship with the new government, with a special emphasis on security concerns. During this period, several Chinese delegations visited Nepal to study the Genz movement and assess potential challenges to bilateral relations. 

CPN-UML, the second-largest party in the dissolved House of Representatives, is undergoing an intense internal conflict, though it is far less vocal than the turmoil inside the Nepali Congress. Almost all senior leaders believe that Chairman KP Sharma Oli should step down for the sake of the party, arguing that his image has been tarnished by the killing of 19 students during the Sept 8 GenZ protest, when he was prime minister.

While some leaders have openly demanded his resignation, others remain hesitant, fearing that if Oli wins the party leadership next month, they could face the same fate as the many leaders who were sidelined after Oli became the UML chairman in 2015.

Senior leaders such as Ishwar Pokhrel, Surendra Pandey and Astha Laxmi Shakya have publicly stated that Oli should not contest the leadership election. Despite this, Oli is preparing to seek unanimous endorsement as party chair at the general convention scheduled for Dec 13-14 in Kathmandu. Many leaders worry that he could manipulate the process of selecting convention representatives to secure his victory.

In the 2021 convention, Bhim Rawal had challenged Oli, but was ultimately pushed out of UML. Rawal has now joined the Nepali Communist Party formed by former Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal. Dahal, having dropped the Maoist label, is now working to consolidate fringe communist groups under his leadership. Likewise, after a prolonged rivalry with Oli, Madhav Kumar Nepal split from UML to form his own party, CPN (Unified Socialist). Now he too has joined the Nepal Communist Party.

UML insiders say defeating Oli at the convention remains a herculean task, given his strong organizational grip. To maintain control, Oli even blocked the possible entry of former President Bidya Devi Bhandari by stripping her of party membership without any compelling justification. Bhandari, however, continues to oppose Oli from outside the party and is strongly backing senior leader Ishwar Pokhrel for party chair. Many senior leaders are also gravitating toward Pokhrel, and his faction is expected to restore Bhandari’s membership if they secure the leadership.

At a recent party meeting, Pokhrel informed Oli directly that he intends to run for the UML leadership. He is preparing to issue a public appeal to convention representatives in the coming days. Senior leaders Astha Laxmi Shakya, Yubaraj Gyawali, Surendra Pandey, Yogesh Bhattarai and Gokarna Bista have already rallied behind him. Meanwhile, senior leader Bishnu Poudel, who served as finance minister under Oli, has adopted a neutral stance, remaining silent on the leadership dispute despite his strong organizational influence across the country.

The conflict, however, is not limited to leadership. Many top leaders are dissatisfied with the party’s policy direction following the GenZ movement. They oppose Oli’s decision to form the National Volunteers Force, which they fear could trigger internal confrontations. Despite objections from key office bearers, Oli moved ahead with the plan and began coordinating directly with Mahesh Basnet, bypassing party structures.

These leaders argue the party cannot reject elections outright while focusing solely on restoring Parliament. They believe Oli is inflaming political tensions rather than helping stabilize the national environment, which has led to clashes between UML cadres and GenZ activists. 

Leaders worry that his refusal to acknowledge the concerns of young people could damage the party’s electoral prospects. Several senior leaders say that although the violence on Sept 8–9 was unprecedented, the party must recognize the underlying demands of the youth, particularly the need to curb corruption and improve governance. 

Rejecting the September protests will alienate the youth, one senior official said on condition of anonymity. The leader added that Oli now appears to be using the party’s institutional strength to shield himself from potential action over his role in those events, a move they warn will harm UML in the long run.

With the Nepali Congress already committing to elections, UML finds itself increasingly isolated. The Nepali Communist Party led by Dahal and other fringe parties have also decided to contest the polls on 5 March 2026. 

As the general convention approaches, Oli’s position among office bearers is weakening. Only a handful of senior leaders, including Pradeep Gyawali, Shankar Pokhrel, Bishnu Rimal and Prithvi Subba Gurung, continue to back him strongly, while most others either openly criticize him or support a change in leadership.

Uncertainty over the March 5 national elections looms large, as political parties remain unprepared. According to Prime Minister Sushila Karki, around 65 percent of election-related preparations have been completed. The government is also preparing a comprehensive security plan for the polls. However, concerns persist over whether Nepal Police can effectively maintain security, given its low morale and shortage of arms and ammunition. Defense analysts have ruled out deploying the Nepali Army on the frontline.

Meanwhile, the CPN-UML has taken to the streets in protest against the Karki-led government. The party organized demonstrations across local levels this week and has planned a series of mass protests in Kathmandu. It has refused to participate in elections conducted by the current government, calling it unconstitutional. The UML’s roadmap centers on the restoration of parliament, the formation of an all-party government, and the eventual conduct of early elections.

In contrast, the Nepali Congress remains without a clear and firm position, while the CPN (Maoist Centre) has expressed readiness to go to the polls. The Nepali Army, for its part, has already communicated to all stakeholders that it has no intention of taking over power, warning that such a move would only worsen the country’s political instability.

In the coming days, the focus will be on Nepal’s evolving political roadmap. Possible scenarios include a postponement of elections to April or May while allowing the Karki government to continue, or the formation of a consensus government among major political forces, followed by a new election announcement. Rumors have also surfaced about the possibility of a Chief Justice-led caretaker cabinet, similar to that of the 2013 second Constituent Assembly elections.

Adding to the uncertainty, President Ramchandra Paudel’s next move remains unclear. He had appointed Prime Minister Karki with the mandate to hold elections within six months. However, tensions between the two have reportedly grown after Karki dismissed the President’s proposal to include political party representatives in the cabinet. The President is also said to be dissatisfied with the lack of dialogue between the Prime Minister and political parties, a key prerequisite for holding credible elections.

However, the Election Commission (EC) has been active in engaging political parties to create a conducive environment for the polls. The EC is currently in consultations to finalize the election code of conduct.

Interestingly, not only traditional parties but even new political groups have expressed reluctance to hold elections on March 5, citing inadequate preparation time. Some representatives of the GenZ movement, including Sudan Gurung, have warned that they will not accept elections unless their demands are addressed first. Political observers estimate that it could take at least a year to manage the ongoing transition.

Security tensions also remain high. The Nepal Police has arrested around 500 people across the country for their alleged involvement in arson and vandalism during the Sept 8–9 protests. Critics, however, argue that the protesters should not be criminalized, as the demonstrations were a form of revolt. Earlier, Home Minister Om Prakash Aryal’s directive not to arrest protesters had sparked opposition from Nepal Police’s top brass. Now, Aryal finds himself under fire from both GenZ protestors and political parties.

Within the Nepali Congress, internal disputes over its upcoming general convention remain unresolved. There are growing fears that the party could split if it fails to settle the issue soon. The party has also begun collecting signatures from its lawmakers, a move interpreted as preparation to push for parliament restoration.

Meanwhile, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, now leading the Nepali Communist Party, has emphasized his readiness for elections but remains open to parliament restoration. He has succeeded in bringing 12 fringe communist parties under his fold and has once again become a vocal critic of KP Sharma Oli. In a related development, Bhim Rawal, who had left UML a few years ago, has joined Dahal’s NCP.

The number of political parties registered with the Election Commission has now exceeded 125, with around two dozen new applications under review. Following the GenZ protests, which toppled major political parties from power, a new wave of actors—including businesspeople, independent politicians, celebrities, and others—have shown interest in joining politics. Since the March 5 election announcement, the EC has received 21 new party registration applications.

For comparison, in the 2022 elections, 116 political parties were registered with the commission, though only 87 participated. Many of the new parties believe they can attract public support amid widespread disillusionment with mainstream political forces that have dominated power since 1990.

In other developments, President Paudel has removed Madhesh Province Head Sumitra Subedi and appointed Surendra Labh in her place. Meanwhile, Dan Bahadur Karki has taken charge as Inspector General of Nepal Police, succeeding Chandra Kuber Khapung. The new IGP faces the formidable challenge of boosting police morale and ensuring that the force can provide foolproof election security.

Controversial businessman Durga Prasai is reportedly planning street protests demanding the restoration of the monarchy. The government, however, is considering stopping the demonstrations, arguing they could further destabilize the fragile security environment. Home Minister Aryal has already held preliminary talks with Prasai, who has presented a 27-point list of demands, several of which are considered unrealistic and unconstitutional.

In another political development, Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) Chairman Rajendra Lingden and Rastriya Prajatantra Party-Nepal Chairman Kamal Thapa held talks this week to explore party unification. In the aftermath of the GenZ movement, polarization among royalist forces is intensifying, with discussions underway on whether to contest the elections or push for a broader movement.

Additionally, Cabinet Minister Kul Man Ghising has registered a new political party under the leadership of former energy secretary Anup Kumar Upadhyay. However, Home Minister Aryal has said he will not allow Ghising to form a new party. Ghising has faced criticism within the cabinet for his political involvement, with colleagues arguing that since he joined the government to facilitate elections within six months, his engagement in party politics is inappropriate.

Why did the Nepal Army (NA) not take the initiative to protect vital state installations such as the Parliament building, Singha Durbar, the Supreme Court, and the President’s Office? 

Since the violent GenZ protests of Sept 8–9, this question has reverberated from tea stalls to television studios, from ordinary citizens to political leaders and security analysts. And it is a question the Army will likely continue to face for generations.

 At a press conference on Oct 17, more than a month after the unrest, the NA said that Singha Durbar could have been saved only at the cost of significant human casualties, meaning it would have had to open fire on protesters. The Army, which has historically refrained from suppressing popular uprisings, maintained that the Sept 9 chaos was not a peaceful protest but a riot.

 According to Army officers, troops attempted to hold back demonstrators at Singha Durbar’s gates through physical restraint and warning fire. But as mobs surged in from all four directions, the Army acted under what it called the “principle of necessity,” prioritizing human lives over physical infrastructure. In essence, the NA decided not to kill civilians to protect government buildings.

Still, the Army claims it succeeded in safeguarding strategically vital assets. Despite the blaze at Singha Durbar, it says its personnel managed to protect sensitive documents and data servers belonging to the National Security Council, the Ministry of Defense, and the Ministry of Finance. Had those systems been destroyed, the state’s financial operations, such as salary payments, transactions, and accounting, could have ground to a halt within days, NA said.  The NA also claims credit for securing Tribhuvan International Airport during the unrest.

Initial media reports suggest that the NA has launched an internal investigation to identify deployment lapses that occurred on September 9 at sensitive and vital installations.

Inside the NA, there appears to be serious reflection underway regarding its failure to protect vital installations. However, publicly, the NA leadership is defending its actions on various grounds.

The questions confronting the Army today are not entirely new. Article 267 of Nepal’s Constitution designates the President as the Supreme Commander of the Army.

This has raised another sensitive issue: why did the Army not take measures to protect its own Commander-in-Chief, as President Ram Chandra Poudel reportedly had to seek temporary shelter elsewhere during the unrest? Public reaction on social media following the Army’s statement suggests deep skepticism. The common perception remains that soldiers stationed at key gates could have either convinced the protesters not to torch the buildings, or, if necessary, used limited force to defend them.

 Another question concerns the Army’s role in controlling the fires. Officials claimed that fire engines were dispatched to critical sites but were obstructed by protesters. According to the NA, by the following day, flames at most government buildings were under control, except at the Hilton Hotel. Chief Justice Prakash Man Singh Rawat, however, stated in an interview that he had to rely on the Lalitpur Municipality’s help to extinguish the blaze at the Supreme Court on the third day of arson.

 The list of questions goes on: Why didn’t the Army provide backup to the Nepal Police in controlling the mobs? Why was there a delay in mobilizing the Army after Prime Minister Oli’s resignation?

 Despite criticism, the Army’s subsequent actions helped stabilize the country. After taking full command of security on Sept 9, the law-and-order situation improved dramatically. At a time when political parties faced public anger, the Army facilitated dialogue between President Poudel and the GenZ protesters. Political leaders across party lines have since praised the NA for helping steer the crisis toward a constitutional resolution.

 Yet controversy lingers over the Army’s decision to confiscate the mobile phones of top political leaders under its protection. Officials justified the move, saying unrestricted communication among party leaders could have derailed the delicate process of forming a new government and deepened the crisis. The phones were returned only after Sushila Karki was sworn in as Prime Minister. Although President Poudel reportedly sought verbal consent from major parties, their actual role in the government formation process was minimal.

Public suspicion toward the Army is not without historical precedent. After the 2001 royal massacre that claimed the lives of King Birendra and his family, the NA repeatedly asserted that security of the royal palace was beyond its jurisdiction. Yet many citizens never accepted that explanation. Even after 25 years, people still ask: why did the Army fail to protect its own supreme commander?

Similarly, when the monarchy was abolished by the first meeting of the Constituent Assembly in 2008, the Army chose to remain silent. Monarchists continue to question why it did not resist the removal of the King.

 This time, however, the stakes are far greater. The questions facing the Army today cut deeper, carrying long-term implications for civilian–military relations and the integrity of the state.

 Despite the wave of criticism, the NA deserves recognition for restoring order and refraining from political intervention at a volatile moment. Rumors of a military takeover or a royal return were rife, but the Army maintained its apolitical character and ultimately acted to safeguard the constitutional framework.

 Still, the questions directed at the NA cannot be answered by the Army alone. They also implicate Nepal’s political leadership and its constitutional arrangements. The coalition government of the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML had the authority to declare a state of emergency or mobilize the Army through the National Security Council, but did not.

 The new government that comes from the March 5 elections must treat these issues with seriousness and urgency. Lessons from the September crisis should inform legal and constitutional reforms to ensure such lapses never recur. What unfolded in Nepal was unprecedented, both in terms of scale and the symbolism it carries.

 Rather than dragging the Army into controversy, political leaders must confront their own failures. The events of Sept 8–9 were not just a breakdown of security; they were a test of Nepal’s entire state apparatus.

It has been exactly one month since the GenZ protests toppled the KP Sharma Oli-led government, marking one of the most dramatic political shifts in Nepal’s recent history. Following Oli’s resignation at 2 pm on Sept 9, the country drifted into nearly nine hours of stateless uncertainty until 10:30 pm, when the Nepal Army assumed temporary command over both security and political affairs to prevent further chaos.

Over the next three days, the Army facilitated a series of intense negotiations between President Ramchandra Paudel and the GenZ protest leaders, as well as with senior figures from major political parties. These discussions, though tense and at times inconclusive, culminated in what was presented as a constitutional way out of the crisis. On Sept 12— just three days after the violent clashes that led to at least 74 deaths including 19 students—an interim government was formed under former Chief Justice Sushila Karki, with a six-month mandate to hold national elections.

Breaking from our usual editorial format, this issue takes stock of the major political shifts, emerging power struggles, and societal undercurrents that have defined the past month.

Interim government’s mandate

Immediately after being sworn in as interim Prime Minister, Karki dissolved Parliament and announced that fresh national elections would be held on March 5 next year. Her initial cabinet appointments signaled a desire for technocratic competence and public trust: senior advocate Om Prakash Aryal was named Home Minister, and former Finance Secretary Rameshwar Khanal was appointed Finance Minister.

On Sept 25, Karki delivered her first national address, delineating the priorities and limitations of her caretaker administration. She firmly stated that no constitutional amendment would take place before the elections. The interim government, she stressed, exists to ensure a smooth and credible transition, not to embark on structural reforms. She further noted that the more fundamental demands of the GenZ movement, such as constitutional reform and a shift in the system of governance, fall outside its temporary jurisdiction.

Since then, Karki has reiterated that her government’s single overriding priority is to hold elections on time. To this end, she has maintained close coordination with the Election Commission and pledged full logistical support. On Oct 8, while addressing Nepali ambassadors abroad, she underscored the importance of securing international backing to guarantee the timely and credible conduct of the polls.

This clarity of focus has won her cautious support across various quarters. In our view as well, ensuring free, fair, and timely elections remains the most responsible course of action amid the current volatility.

The chances of holding elections, however, are becoming increasingly challenging, as the CPN-UML has demanded the restoration of Parliament, and the Nepali Congress is likely to follow suit. Soon after the dissolution of Parliament, political parties collectively opposed the move.

Fragile law and order

The law and order situation remains precarious. During the Sept 8–9 protests, the Nepal Police bore the brunt of the violence. Protesters looted weapons and uniforms, assaulted officers, and torched several police posts, while other security forces largely stood aside. Though police operations have slowly resumed, morale remains low and resources stretched thin.

Differences between the cabinet and security chiefs persist over how to handle investigations into the killings, arson, and widespread destruction of both public and private property. The government has formed a judicial inquiry commission led by former judge Gauri Bahadur Karki to investigate the protest-related violence and the deaths. 

However, distrust between protestors and the state remains deep.

GenZ demonstrators have filed formal complaints demanding the immediate arrest of former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, former Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak, and several senior officials allegedly implicated in the killings. In retaliation, youth wings of major political parties have lodged a case against Kathmandu Mayor Balendra Shah and Sudan Gurung, accusing them of inciting unrest. This tit-for-tat exchange has created an atmosphere of mutual hostility, threatening to reignite street confrontations and deepen the crisis.

While Prime Minister Karki and her cabinet have publicly supported the idea of holding those responsible accountable, security chiefs have advised restraint, warning that premature arrests could destabilize an already fragile order. Acting on the inquiry commission’s recommendations, the government has restricted the foreign and domestic travel of Oli, Lekhak, and several high-ranking officials, requiring them to seek permission before leaving the Kathmandu Valley. The commission is expected to summon Oli for questioning in the coming days.

Fragmented GenZ 

A month after their political triumph, the GenZ movement is showing signs of fragmentation. Dozens of splinter groups have emerged, advancing competing visions for Nepal’s political future. Some factions demand the complete dismantling of the current constitution and a shift toward a directly elected presidential system, while others argue for preserving the constitutional framework but reforming its implementation. Several groups are reportedly planning renewed street demonstrations to press forth their respective demands.

Observers note that these divisions have made the movement vulnerable to political co-option, as various GenZ factions begin aligning themselves with different established parties and agendas.

Private sector’s anxiety

Beyond the political turbulence, Nepal’s economic outlook has sharply deteriorated. The private sector has warned that continued impunity and instability could paralyze business recovery. Tourism, contributing nearly seven percent of the GDP, has been among the hardest-hit sectors, with hotel occupancy plunging from 70 percent before the protests to around 30 percent afterward. The World Bank now projects Nepal’s growth rate to fall from an estimated five percent to around two percent this fiscal year.

Despite the grim outlook, the interim government’s fiscal restraint and efficiency measures have earned praise. The decision to curtail unnecessary public spending has been well received, and the government’s proactive disaster preparedness during recent floods and landslides has drawn commendation for saving lives through effective coordination among agencies.

Corruption and accountability

Fighting corruption was one of the GenZ movement’s core demands. However, the interim administration faces both constitutional and procedural obstacles in creating new anti-corruption mechanisms. The Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) is under intense public scrutiny, with its chief, Prem Kumar Rai, facing mounting calls to resign. Protestors accuse the CIAA of protecting the political elite rather than prosecuting them.

Shifts in external relations

Internationally, Nepal’s political transition has been met with cautious engagement. Key development partners and regional powers, including India, Japan, and the European Union, have expressed readiness to support both the upcoming elections and post-crisis reconstruction. China, however, has remained conspicuously silent.

Diplomatic circles were abuzz after the Dalai Lama sent a congratulatory message to the Karki-led government, a gesture that has unsettled Beijing and stirred debate in Kathmandu about Nepal’s delicate balancing act between competing global interests. Prime Minister Karki has yet to appoint a Foreign Minister, but her government has made it clear that foreign relations will prioritize stability, credibility, and election support.

Political parties in flux

In the wake of the GenZ uprising, Nepal’s traditional political establishment has entered a period of introspection and disarray. Many senior leaders went underground during the peak of the protests, wary of the public backlash.

Among the major parties, the CPN (Maoist Center) was the first to react by dissolving its Central Working Committee and forming a General Convention Organizing Committee under Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The Maoists have since positioned themselves as sympathetic to the GenZ demands for systemic reform, particularly the idea of a directly elected president. At the same time, they are strategically maneuvering to benefit from the waning popularity of the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML.

The Nepali Congress remains indecisive. Party President Sher Bahadur Deuba is still undergoing medical treatment, leaving the party effectively leaderless. Younger leaders like Gagan Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma have apologized for the party’s failures and launched a signature campaign calling for an extraordinary convention to replace the old guard. Yet senior figures such as Prakash Sharan Mahat, Prakash Man Singh, and Purna Bahadur Khadka have resisted, arguing that internal leadership changes could weaken the party ahead of elections. Whether the NC will contest the polls or push for the restoration of the dissolved Parliament remains uncertain.

Within the CPN-UML, Chairman KP Sharma Oli has rejected internal calls to resign, declaring in a virtual address to district chairs that he will lead the party “as long as I have the strength, conviction, and clarity of vision.” The UML views the GenZ movement as a foreign-orchestrated attempt to weaken Nepal’s sovereignty, particularly blaming Western actors. The party now appears to favor reinstating Parliament and has dismissed the findings of the judicial inquiry commission.

The Rastriya Swatantra Party, Nepal’s fourth-largest political force, is similarly mired in internal conflict. The GenZ uprising has intensified scrutiny of party chairman Rabi Lamichhane’s unresolved legal cases. The resignation of senior leader Sumana Shrestha has exposed deep fractures within the party, dashing earlier hopes that it could capitalize on the disillusionment with traditional parties.

Civil society’s renewed voice

Over the past year Nepal’s civil society has reasserted itself as a moral and political force. In the wake of the GenZ protests, prominent intellectuals, journalists, and activists have called for the old political class to make way for new leadership. They also urged the government and parties to ensure a peaceful environment for credible elections.

Civil society’s growing engagement reflects a broader sentiment shared across the country: while the GenZ protests succeeded in disrupting the old order, the difficult task of rebuilding public trust, democratic accountability, and institutional integrity has only just begun.

During the protests, mainstream media were targeted, severely limiting their ability to report independently. Amid a climate of impunity and fear, many Nepali journalists have resorted to self-censorship. Despite these constraints, the media continue to play a vital role in holding those in power accountable.

KP Sharma Oli has made it clear that he is not planning to step down as party chair in the near future. This comes despite calls from the public and party leaders to hand over the leadership to the new generation.

In a Zoom meeting with the party’s district presidents, the head of CPN-UML said that what happened on September 8–9 was a conspiracy against him, his party, and ultimately the country. “Though I am kicked out of power, I am continuously working for the party and country,” said Oli.

Even the top leaders of the party want to see Oli continue as leader. Within the UML, leader Mahesh Basnet has been vocal against the government and the Zen-Z protestors. Other top leaders—except General Secretary Shankar Pokhrel, who frequently expresses his opinion on Facebook—have remained silent.

Meanwhile, the Nepali Congress is preparing to hold a series of meetings in the coming weeks. Party President Sher Bahadur Deuba, who has yet to appear in public after being attacked by protestors on September 9, has called a meeting of the party’s senior leaders to discuss the agenda for the Central Working Committee, which will convene soon. The CWC meeting is likely to clarify the party’s position on elections and the restoration of democracy.

Deuba is also expected to appoint Purna Bahadur Khadka as acting party president in response to the Zen-Z protests. Party General Secretaries Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma have initiated a signature campaign demanding a special general convention of the party. However, this move is being opposed by second-tier leaders aligned with Deuba, who are attempting to block Thapa’s rise to party leadership.

Amid fears of another wave of Zen-Z protests and possible clashes with youth organizations of major political parties, the Ministry of Home Affairs has issued an appeal for dialogue and negotiation. It has urged protestors to express their agendas through civil, dignified, and peaceful means.

Meanwhile, media reports suggest that the chiefs of security agencies and the Home Minister have differing opinions on how to proceed against those involved in the killing of 19 students on September 8 and the vandalism and arson the next day. A group of Zen-Z protestors is demanding the arrest of Oli and his Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak.

According to reports, Home Minister Aryal and Prime Minister Karki are in favor of arresting the leaders, while the heads of the security agencies believe that such action could further inflame tensions. It remains unclear whether the government will leave this matter to the probe committee or take direct action.

There are still fears that potential street protests could turn violent, especially as the morale of the security forces has declined. During the September 8–9 protests, the Nepali Police were a primary target—protestors looted their weapons and vandalized offices. Media reports indicate growing misunderstandings between the Home Minister and security officials on how to handle the situation. Tensions could rise further if clashes erupt between Zen-Z groups and youth wings of political parties.

In a new development, the Election Commission (EC) is preparing to hold consultations with major political parties regarding the upcoming elections. This is expected to create a more favorable environment for conducting the elections. Earlier, the EC had faced criticism for preparing unilaterally without consulting the parties. The EC will hold talks with political leaders on October 16.

Separately, Prime Minister Sushila Karki has assured the EC that the government is ready to provide logistical support to conduct the elections. Two major parties—Nepali Congress and CPN-UML—are quietly preparing to file a case in the Supreme Court demanding the restoration of the dissolved Parliament. In the current fragile political climate, a possible court-ordered restoration of Parliament cannot be ruled out. If the case moves forward, it could impact the election environment.

Prime Minister Sushila Karki has briefed Nepali ambassadors abroad on the foreign policy priorities of her government. She instructed the ambassadors to coordinate with relevant organizations to ensure the success of the elections. “We will inform you separately and soon if we need to request special technical support from a friendly country,” said Karki.

She also mentioned that homework is underway on whether Nepali citizens temporarily living abroad can vote in the upcoming elections. In her policy paper, Karki discussed the current geopolitical situation and Nepal’s economic diplomacy. Unlike previous prime ministers, she did not emphasize that the new government’s priority is immediate neighbors India and China.

UN Resident Coordinator Hanaa Singer Hamdy met with PM Karki to reaffirm the United Nations’ strong partnership with Nepal. According to the UN Nepal office, the discussions highlighted shared priorities: credible and inclusive elections in 2026, advancing transitional justice, promoting good governance, tackling misinformation, and sustaining progress toward graduation from Least Developed Country (LDC) status. “The UN remains committed to supporting Nepal’s democratic journey and the aspirations of its people for peace, justice, and prosperity,” the office said.

In sum, it appears the government is focused on holding elections on time.

Kamal Dev Bhattarai 

Editor 

At least 52 people have been killed and several remain missing due to landslides and floods caused by torrential rains on Oct 4 and 5. The highest number of casualties has been reported in Koshi Province, with 37 deaths in Ilam district alone due to landslides triggered by the heavy rainfall.

From Sunday, there are no risks of heavy to very heavy rainfall, although light to moderate showers are still likely in some parts of the country. On Friday and Saturday, Bagmati and Madhes Provinces were particularly hard hit by the torrential rains.

Several highways that were blocked by landslides have been partially reopened. The BP Highway, which had only recently been repaired after massive damage in last year’s floods, has been damaged again. It is expected to take 3–4 days to fully restore access along the BP Highway.

The interim government led by Sushila Karki has been credited with better preparations for relief and rescue operations. Private airlines have been operating charter flights to assist passengers stranded in major cities. 

Ministers were reportedly concerned that poor handling of the crisis could lead to public criticism, especially since the government was formed only three weeks ago. Last year, former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli lost public support due to inadequate response to the floods and landslides that severely affected central Kathmandu.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed sorrow over the disaster, stating: The loss of lives and damage caused by heavy rains in Nepal is distressing. We stand with the people and Government of Nepal in this difficult time. As a friendly neighbor and first responder, India remains committed to providing any assistance that may be required.”

However, the Nepal government has not yet sought international assistance. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) has instructed relevant agencies to collect and submit preliminary damage assessments, including the number of people affected and details of the impacted areas.

District administration offices have been directed to provide relief to the families of the deceased and arrange free treatment for the injured.

Due to ongoing heavy rains, the Saptakoshi River has reached its highest recorded water level, crossing the extremely high danger mark. As a result, all 56 gates of the Koshi Barrage have been opened. The government has announced that it will provide Rs 200,000 in relief to the families of those who died due to floods and landslides.

With the Dashain festival drawing to a close, political parties are set to resume their activities. The CPN-UML is preparing to hold its Central Committee meeting to discuss party leadership and its future political direction.

Before that, the party will convene a meeting of its 18-member Secretariat. Pressure is mounting on PM KP Sharma Oli to step down as party chair, but he remains reluctant.

The CPN (Maoist Center) has begun preparations for its general convention, having already dissolved its Central Committee to form a Convention Organizing Committee. 

The Maoist party was also the first to engage with the GenZ protests. Prime Minister Sushila Karki recently held an extended consultation with representatives from the GenZ protest movement, with 25 representatives from five different groups in attendance. As various GenZ factions are emerging with differing political demands, the PM aimed to gather diverse views to find common ground and potentially bring all groups under one platform.

Some GenZ protesters are advocating for constitutional amendments to introduce a directly elected Prime Minister, while others want to retain the current parliamentary system. 

In her national address, PM Karki clarified that constitutional amendments fall outside the jurisdiction of her interim government. Additionally, some GenZ groups are calling for the removal of the Chief Justice and other justices of the Supreme Court, intensifying political pressure on the judiciary.

It has been revealed that on Sept 9, the Nepali Army warned President Ramchandra Paudel and senior leaders of major political parties to reach a decision regarding government formation by that night. According to a report published by Janastha newspaper, Army Chief Ashok Sigdel reportedly told the leaders: “The movement will intensify after the army takes over the power. Once power is taken, the army will not return until everything is in order. It will be difficult to retreat.” The army chief reportedly said: “In that case, you must decide on your own. Create an environment for forming the government immediately.” Citing sources, the report says the Army submitted two proposals to the President: Permission to declare a state of emergency, and formation of a consensus government among major political parties and protest groups.