China wants Nepal to support its peace bids

China has sought Nepal’s support in its bid to maintain peace by ending the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and growing crisis in the Middle East. 

Chen Gang, a member of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, made such a statement during talks with top leaders of major political parties. Chen, who is also secretary of the CPC Qinghai provincial committee, led a delegation that visited Nepal Oct 19 to 20.

The Chinese delegation discussed the current global crisis, including the ongoing wars, and informed us about Beijing’s attempts to end the war, said a Nepali leader requesting anonymity, asking Nepal for support in its peace bid and hailing Nepal as a land of peace where Gautam Budha was born.

Both in the Russia-Ukraine war and in the Mideast, China is playing the peacemaker by leveraging its clout. Both Russia and Ukraine recognize the importance of including Beijing in their negotiations. The Chinese delegation, during the interaction with Nepal’s communist parties, discussed a range of bilateral issues, including Xi Jinping’s short visit to Nepal in 2019. 

According to Xinhua, during the stay in the Himalayan country, the CPC delegation had exchanges with leaders of Nepal’s political parties and attended a briefing on the spirit of the third plenary session of the 20th CPC Committee, which was focused on sharing the opportunities brought by the Chinese-style modernization and deepening the trans-Himalayan cooperation.

In meetings and exchanges with the CPC delegation, the Nepali side reaffirmed commitment to the one-China policy and expressed the willingness to further strengthen inter-party exchanges with the Chinese side, and to deepen cooperation in various fields, promoting the continuous development of relations between the two countries, Xinhua reports. 

According to Nepali leaders, the Chinese side focused on enhancing ties on multiple fronts, including in the agriculture sector. Of late, the Chinese side is expressing readiness to support Nepal's agriculture sector but Nepal has not come up with any concrete proposal. A few weeks ago, Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Cheng Song had said that his country was ready to lend support to Nepal for establishing a fertilizer plant. Unlike the previous delegation, this delegation did not raise the Belt and Road Initiative, according to a leader. 

Of late, CPC has stepped up engagement with Nepal’s political parties and the government.

The week that was

Dear readers,

I usually publish my newsletter every Friday. However, with the Dashain break approaching, I’m sharing this update midweek. While Dashain is here, many of us are not in a festive mood. The recent floods and landslides, which tragically claimed 246 lives and left others missing, have cast a shadow over the celebrations. In some areas, victims are still struggling to access basic daily essentials. Although people have started leaving Kathmandu to celebrate Dashain, many highways and roads remain in poor condition, contributing to accidents.

Reports indicate that the monsoon, which brings 80 percent of the country’s annual rainfall, is withdrawing. While heavy rains are unlikely, moderate to light rainfall may continue. These disasters have forced policymakers to reconsider the current development model.

On the political front, there have been no major developments. Former King Gyanendra Shah recently made an unofficial visit to Bhutan, receiving royal treatment, sparking speculation about its potential political impact. Royalist factions are celebrating, suggesting this could help build support for the monarchy’s return. However, major political leaders have yet to comment.

The implementation of recommendations from parliamentary probes into cooperatives has been slow, possibly due to the aftermath of the floods or a lack of political will. Rabi Lamichhane, leader of the Rastriya Swatantra Party, is facing protests from cooperative victims in his home district, Chitwan. Earlier concerns about his arrest have eased.

Meanwhile, Prakash Man Singh Raut has assumed office as the 32nd Chief Justice of Nepal. He faces the daunting task of restoring public trust in the judiciary, which has suffered in recent years. With a reputation for fairness and impartiality, legal experts believe his 18-month term could bring judicial independence. Born in Udayapur in 1961, Raut’s career includes being a Supreme Court Justice since 2016, a former advocate, and president of the Supreme Court Bar Association in 2006.

In environmental news, Nepal is set to receive payments for reducing carbon dioxide emissions through its forests in 13 Tarai districts. Between 2018 and 2024, the country is expected to receive $5 for every ton of carbon sequestered, totaling 2.4m tons under the Tarai Arc Landscape Program. This payment is due by October.

In international news, Israel recently held memorials marking one year since a Hamas-led raid, the deadliest attack in its history. The situation in the Middle East remains volatile, raising concerns for the safety of Nepali workers in Lebanon and Israel. Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba has urged Nepal’s ambassadors to prepare for potential emergencies.

During the Dashain holiday, the print edition of The Annapurna Express will take a break, but we will continue to provide breaking news, analysis and updates on our online platform at theannapurnaexpress.com. Please visit our website for the latest updates.

The week that was

The festive season is here but it’s been a sobering week for the country. Floods and landslides, triggered by heavy rainfall early this week, caused unprecedented damage to lives and properties across Nepal. According to the Ministry of Home Affairs, 242 people lost their lives and dozens are still missing. A preliminary government assessment estimates that the disaster caused damages worth over Rs 6bn in damages to the agricultural sector, with paddy crops suffering the most, accounting for Rs 3.5bn in losses.

Floods and landslides affected 58,476 hectares of paddy fields across districts such as Saptari, Siraha, Dhanusha, Mahottari, Sarlahi, Rautahat, Bara, Parsa, Nawalparasi East, Baglung, Khotang, Jhapa, Kailali, Lamjung, Parbat, Kaski, Syangja, Makwanpur, Kavre and Sindhuli. The actual extent of the damage may be even higher, as many affected areas remain inaccessible. 

Natural disasters are unpredictable and occur worldwide, but last week’s events in Nepal offer important lessons for the government. A single agency must take a more proactive and prepared approach to minimize the damage. Additionally, the government needs to take environmental concerns seriously, as unchecked development at the local level and excessive exploitation of natural resources are contributing to increased landslides and floods. 

The government’s response after the disaster was also slow, with delays in rescuing trapped people and providing immediate relief. Although the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority was established a few years ago to handle such crises, it has come under public scrutiny for its poor management. Prime Minister Oli admitted that the country was unprepared for disasters of this scale. There is still a lack of coordination and communication among state agencies and the three levels of government.

Erratic rainfall patterns, exacerbated by climate change, are expected to bring more floods and rainfall in the future, and the government must enhance its preparations. Key security forces, such as the Nepali Army and the Armed Police Force, need better equipment and training to respond effectively to natural disasters. Unfortunately, history shows that we tend to forget these disasters quickly and fail to prepare adequately. The Melamchi flood of 2021 should have been a wake-up call, yet little has been done since then. Amid this crisis, the Dashain festival, the largest and longest in the Hindu calendar, has begun. Many are hopeful that the government will expedite the repair of major highways to ensure smoother travel during the festivities. 

In other news this week, Prime Minister Oli recently returned from an extended visit to New York, where he addressed several United Nations programs and held bilateral talks with leaders from other countries. While in New York, Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba met with senior US officials to discuss bilateral relations. Nepal and the US have established a Bilateral Consultation Mechanism to discuss key issues annually. However, Prime Minister Oli faced criticism for being abroad while the country was in the midst of a crisis caused by floods and landslides. In contrast, opposition leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the CPN (Maoist Center) stepped into the spotlight, calling an all-party meeting to discuss the disaster and visiting flood-affected areas. 

Prakash Man Singh Rawat is set to become Nepal’s next Chief Justice after being endorsed by the Parliamentary Hearing Committee, as current Chief Justice Bishowambhar Prasad Shrestha retires this week. Meanwhile, the Chairman of the Nepal Bar Association, Gopal Krishna Ghimire, is facing contempt of court charges in the Supreme Court over comments related to judicial appointments. 

This week, the Supreme Court also sentenced the publisher Yubaraj Kandel and executive editor Nabin Dhungana of the online portal Sidhakura.com to three months in prison for contempt of court. On April 26, the news portal had published a fake news report, claiming that the leadership of Annapurna Media Network and Kantipur Publications were part of a secret meeting involving sitting and former Supreme Court justices and senior lawyers to dismiss more than 400 corruption cases. 

On the economic front, there was some good news this week. The World Bank projects that Nepal’s economic growth will accelerate to 5.1 percent in 2025, up from 3.9 percent in 2024, driven by a recovery in tourism, increased hydropower production and improved paddy yields. The World Bank projects 5.5 percent growth for Nepal by the fiscal year 2026. The International Monetary Fund also issued a positive outlook for Nepal’s economy last week. The private sector is expected to benefit from the central bank’s more relaxed monetary policies and eased regulations. 

However, there are significant risks to this outlook. The financial sector faces vulnerabilities, including a rise in non-performing loans, which could limit credit growth for the private sector. Delays in capital spending could slow infrastructure development, and regional instability and trade disruptions could hurt tourism and domestic demand. Additionally, recent natural disasters may impede Nepal’s economic recovery.

That’s all for this week. Stay safe

Nepal-US engagement in New York

The 79th United Nations General Assembly provided an opportunity for Nepal and the United States to discuss bilateral, regional and international issues. On the sidelines of the meeting, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba engaged in talks with senior US officials.

During a ceremony at the State Department, Nepal and the US agreed to establish a bilateral consultation mechanism. Foreign Minister Deuba and US Acting Under Secretary for Political Affairs, John Bass, signed the agreement, with senior officials from both sides in attendance. Nepal has similar mechanisms in place with several other countries.

After the meeting, Foreign Minister Deuba said, “A historic milestone in Nepal-US relations has been achieved with the signing of the Bilateral Consultation Mechanism (BCM) Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).” She added the agreement would promote deeper cooperation in areas such as trade, investment, tourism and infrastructure, thereby laying a stronger foundation for mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries.

Prime Minister Oli and Foreign Minister Rana also met with Alice P Albright, CEO of the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), to discuss the progress of MCC projects in Nepal. The US has encouraged Nepal to foster a favorable environment for smooth implementation of the MCC. Thirteen months have passed since the MCC came into effect, and its projects are supposed to be completed within four years. Recent progress at the local level has been positive, which is a good thing. Senior MCC officials have been consistently engaging with Nepal’s top leaders to ensure there are no obstacles to the project's implementation.

Additionally, Foreign Minister Deuba met with Uzra Zeya, US Undersecretary of State for Civil Security, Democracy and Human Rights, to discuss Nepal’s transitional justice issues, human rights and democracy. Zeya, who visited Nepal in 2022, has long advocated for the human rights of Tibetan refugees in Nepal. The US has requested that Nepal resume the process of issuing identity cards to these refugees.

USAID Administrator Samantha Power also met with Prime Minister Oli to discuss the enduring partnership between USAID and Nepal. Power welcomed Nepal’s recent passage of transitional justice legislation and its participation as a founding member of the “Partnership for a Lead-Free Future.” The two sides also discussed ongoing support for Nepal’s development efforts, focusing on health, agriculture, economic growth, and improving public service delivery.

Deputy Secretary of State for Management and Resources, Richard Verma, visited Nepal, where he met with Prime Minister Oli and other senior leaders. Verma expressed the US intention to provide $100m in Foreign Military Financing to enhance Nepal’s rotary wing capabilities, pending Congressional approval and the availability of funds. The discussions also included continued cooperation on sustainable economic development, particularly through the MCC, which aims to increase access to clean energy, as well as a USAID-funded project to promote Nepal’s tea industry through the Nepal Tea Collective.

The week that was

This week, the KP Sharma Oli-led government unveiled its ‘policy commitment’ paper, two months after the formation of a coalition government consisting of the Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, and other smaller parties. The key focus areas of the document include foreign policy priorities, constitution implementation and amendment, good governance, quality public services, economic development, implementation of fundamental rights, and transitional justice issues.

The document is intended to provide clear policy guidelines for the government’s functioning. While it doesn’t present any new foreign policy strategies, it emphasizes attracting more foreign investment and assistance based on Nepal’s development needs. It also highlights resolving bilateral issues with neighboring countries through diplomatic channels and fostering good relations. Prime Minister Oli is due to address the 79th UN General Assembly, where he is expected to discuss these foreign policy priorities.

Regarding constitutional amendments, the document aims to further strengthen the political system and preserve the achievements of the 2006 political movement. This comes amid concerns that the NC and UML may seek to remove certain progressive provisions. The ruling parties have pledged to consult all stakeholders before proceeding with any amendments. In conjunction with Constitution Day, celebrated on Sept 19 (Thursday), leaders reiterated their commitment to upholding the constitution. 

On the occasion of Constitution Day, Nepal also received congratulatory messages from the international community. US Secretary of State Antony J Blinken expressed pride in the US-Nepal collaboration to strengthen ties, promote economic growth through the debt-free partnership with the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), and support climate resilience and clean energy efforts. Blinken’s mention of a “debt-free partnership” appeared to subtly reference China’s involvement in Nepal.

In another story this week, a parliamentary probe committee investigating fraud in the cooperative sector submitted its report to Parliament, which has asked the government to take necessary actions. The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) claims that its leader Rabi Lamichhane was cleared of allegations of cooperative fraud. However, others argue the report suggests the government should take action against Lamichhane for his role in the misuse of cooperative funds when he was the director of Gorkha Media. Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba thanked Gagan Kumar Thapa, the party’s general secretary, for raising Lamichanne’s issues in Parliament stating that Lamichhane’s involvement has been verified. But RSP senior leaders are bent on creating a narrative that Lamichhane was not involved in the case. It is yet to be seen how the government takes action. Despite Lamichhane dominating the headlines, the broader issues raised in the report have received less attention. Meanwhile, the RSP is preparing to hold its first general convention to elect new leadership next year.

This week, the Constitutional Council recommended Justice Prakash Man Singh Rawat as the new Chief Justice, following the retirement of the current judiciary head this month. Rawat will serve for 18 months. 

In politics this week, the ruling UML made strategic decisions to strengthen its organization, including a plan to expand its active membership to one million, which would constitute six percent of the electorate. UML plans to emerge as the largest political party in the 2027 national elections. In the process, the party also plans to enhance its social media presence and to counter what it calls ‘false propaganda’.

Inside the NC, there appears to be a growing cordiality between party President Deuba and General Secretary Thapa. Despite efforts by senior leaders like Shekhar Koirala and Bishwa Prakash Sharma to prevent Deuba from becoming prime minister once again, Thapa publicly stated this week that Deuba would lead the government after two years, following a power transfer from Oli. There are rumors within the party that Deuba may support Thapa’s bid for party president in the upcoming general convention.

The relevance of provincial structures became a hot topic of public discourse this week, with some leaders calling for their abolition. Minister for Information and Technology Prithvi Subba and a section of UML leaders have questioned the need for provinces, suggesting scrapping them through a constitutional amendment. In contrast, former prime minister Baburam Bhattarai has proposed increasing the number of provincial governments to 10. NC leader Deuba has also defended the provincial system, arguing that it should be strengthened rather than dismantled, while also reaffirming the party’s commitment to inclusive provisions, including the electoral system.

Another story of note this week was the findings of the latest report from the Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA), which paints a grim picture of rising corruption, particularly at the local government level. The CIAA’s 34th annual report (2023-24) shows that 38.91 percent of public complaints involved local governments, with the education sector accounting for 15.79 percent. The Auditor General’s 2022-23 report also identified significant financial discrepancies in local governments, highlighting a broader trend of increasing corruption.

Audits covering Rs 1.13575trn across 746 of the 753 local governments uncovered discrepancies totaling Rs 35.67bn. The data shows a consistent increase in complaints related to local and educational institutions.

Nepal’s key agenda in the UN meeting

Nepal will present its positions and policies on a broad range of national, regional, and global issues at the ongoing 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), according to top officials.

In a recent address to Parliament, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli outlined his intentions for the UN forum. “Nepal has its own policies, viewpoints, and challenges, along with our achievements,” he said, emphasizing his commitment to sharing Nepal’s progress and challenges with the global community while seeking international cooperation where necessary.

Prime Minister Oli is set to travel to New York this week to participate in the annual UN meeting. Officials indicate that he will spotlight Nepal’s key political milestones, including the 2015 Constitution and its defining features. Oli will also outline Nepal’s vision of democracy, making the distinction between democracy and anarchism.

Oli will also reaffirm Nepal’s foreign policy fundamentals, particularly its emphasis on relations with neighboring countries. In his Parliament address, Oli reiterated that Nepal’s foreign relations are guided by the principle of “amity with all, enmity with none.” He added that Nepal’s foreign policy is anchored in the UN Charter, non-alignment, non-interference in internal political affairs, and a firm stance against external interference.

Nepal is also expected to express its concerns regarding the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East. Additionally, climate change will feature prominently in Oli’s address to the UN assembly, with the prime minister planning to raise awareness about its impact on Nepal’s Himalayan region. “I will draw attention to the link between melting Himalayan glaciers and rising sea levels,” Oli said, stressing that this is not just a regional issue but a global concern.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres last year expressed alarm over the effects of climate change on Nepal, noting that it faces severe impacts due to the climate crisis. “Nepal is one of the countries suffering the most, and other South Asian nations may soon face similar threats from receding glaciers,” Guterres said in a 2023 address to Nepal’s Parliament. “What is happening in this country as a result of climate change is an appalling injustice and a searing indictment of the fossil fuel age.”

On the sidelines of the UNGA, Prime Minister Oli will attend the “Summit of the Future: Multilateral Solutions for a Better Tomorrow,” focusing on securing a sustainable future for humanity and the planet. The prime minister plans to present Nepal’s views on critical issues, including the protection of children and the environment. He will also address the challenges faced by small island nations due to rising sea levels, linking them to the broader issue of climate change impacting mountainous countries like Nepal.

Preserving ecosystems will be another priority for Oli at the UN. He told Parliament that he plans to discuss the interconnectedness of mountain and ocean ecosystems, underscoring the need for global cooperation in environmental preservation. Additionally, Prime Minister Oli is expected to participate in discussions on drug-related problems, a growing concern for Nepal, though he did not elaborate on specific details.

 

Prime Minister Oli assured Parliament that all his statements at the UN would be made public, and he pledged to provide a detailed report to lawmakers upon his return. “I want to assure the honorable members that after my return, I will report to the House about everything I did and said. All my statements will be available to the media—nothing will be kept secret,” Oli said.

Local governments: Hotspots for corruption

Separate studies conducted by Nepal’s anti-corruption agencies reveal that local governments have become hotspots for corruption. Reports by the Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) and the Office of the Auditor General (OAG) show that corruption at the local level is on the rise, yet no serious efforts have been made to address it.

Nepal’s 2015 Constitution granted local governments greater rights and resources, with the goal of bringing services closer to the people. However, corruption has reached alarming levels. In its 34th annual report (2023/24) submitted to President Ram Chandra Poudel, the CIAA painted a grim picture, showing widespread corruption across state mechanisms, with local governments accounting for a significant portion.

Over the past year, 38.91 percent of the complaints received by the CIAA from the public were related to local governments, followed by 15.79 percent involving the education sector. The Auditor General’s 2022/23 report also highlighted local governments as the most corrupt. Audits covering Rs 1.13575trn across 746 local governments uncovered discrepancies totaling Rs 35.67bn. The data shows a consistent increase in complaints related to local and educational institutions. Currently, there are 753 local governments in Nepal.

After investigating complaints, the CIAA files cases with the Special Court. However, the Special Court often acquits defendants in corruption cases. According to CIAA spokesperson Nara Hari Ghimire, the CIAA has succeeded in 68.81 percent of the cases it filed. In the past year, the CIAA has appealed 92 Special Court decisions to the Supreme Court.

In terms of corruption cases filed in 2023/24, government officials lead the list with 520 cases involving civil servants, followed by 106 cases against elected representatives, 148 against nominated officials, and 32 against political appointees. Additionally, 739 cases have been filed against other individuals, such as accountants, intermediaries, and organizational staff. The hierarchy of cases includes six secretaries, 30 joint secretaries, 82 undersecretaries, 202 section officers, and 200 assistant-level officials.

Most cases involve the illegal acquisition of benefits, with 58 such cases filed last year. Other cases include 48 for bribery, 34 for fake educational certificates, 33 for the loss of public property, 13 for revenue leakage, 11 for illegal wealth acquisition, and four miscellaneous cases.

The OAG report also outlines common issues in local governments, including excessive and unauthorized spending on travel, fuel, mobile phones, vehicles, and hospitality, as well as hiring advisors. Local officials reportedly spent over Rs 185.32m on such expenses in 2022/23. Furthermore, 171 local units spent Rs 91.5m on the salaries and facilities of personal secretaries, while 424 units spent Rs 6.92bn on contract staff.

A key mechanism used by local governments is consumer committees. Rule 97 of the Public Procurement Regulations, 2007, states that these committees should handle only labor-intensive work that does not require machinery, tools, or equipment. Despite this, 302 local bodies spent Rs 2.99bn through consumer committees for 3,314 construction projects involving machinery. Rule 97(10) also prohibits consumer committees from engaging construction companies, yet 122 local units approved cost estimates for 1,173 projects to be carried out by consumer committees, paying Rs 700.9m in total.

According to Section 20 of the Audit Act, 2018, the accounts of local units must be audited by the Office of the Auditor General. However, the OAG report found that many local bodies have failed to conduct audits. Despite multiple reports and studies, corruption continues to rise, suggesting that anti-corruption agencies are failing to effectively monitor activities at the local level.

Four years ago, the CIAA conducted a 15-district survey to assess public perception of corruption. Of the 3,000 respondents, 67.6 percent reported that corruption had increased at the local level, and 14.9 percent admitted to paying bribes to officials. Respondents noted that corruption worsened after the formation of local units in 2017.

UML roadmap for 2027 elections

The ruling CPN-UML, which has decided to contest the next election independently, has unveiled a roadmap aimed at solidifying its position as a dominant political force. Following the 2022 national elections, where the party emerged as the second-largest political force, it launched the “Mission 2084” campaign, focused on strengthening the party for the next national elections that will take place in 2027. Even after returning to power in July, the party has maintained its focus on internal organization and strategic planning.

Senior UML leaders identify two primary challenges ahead: the potential alliance between the Nepali Congress (NC) and the CPN (Maoist Center) and the rise of new political parties and independent leaders. Additionally, they note that youth, once a core constituency, are increasingly shifting their support to emerging political forces. In response, the UML leadership has directed all party committees to develop policies and programs aligned with Mission 2084, with a particular emphasis on reactivating all party structures to attract younger voters. As part of this initiative, the party has decided to organize a youth summit to introduce its policies and programs to the next generation.

The UML is also pursuing a strategy to attract cadres and leaders from the CPN (Unified Socialist) and the Maoist Center, while deprioritizing unification with smaller communist parties. The party’s emphasis is on strengthening its ranks by drawing in members from rival groups rather than forming alliances. To mobilize youth effectively, UML will utilize its party structures and organize more initiatives like the youth summit to re-engage the younger demographic. Like other parties, the UML faces internal disputes in several districts, and to address this, it has formed a special panel to resolve conflicts and minimize divisions within the party. During the 2022 elections, internal disputes contributed to losses in several constituencies—a situation the party is determined to avoid in the upcoming elections.

Since becoming party chairperson in 2014, KP Sharma Oli has largely succeeded in preventing the rise of powerful factions within the UML. His key rival, Madhav Kumar Nepal, left the party in 2021 to form a separate group, and Bhim Rawal, who was once a vocal critic of the party’s leadership and contested for the post of party chairperson, has now been stripped of major responsibilities within the UML. Despite these internal challenges, the UML remains committed to improving government and parliamentary performance. Two months into the Oli-led government, however, criticism has already surfaced regarding its effectiveness. To counter this, the party has decided to leverage social media more actively, recognizing that younger parties are capitalizing on its growing influence, while the UML still relies heavily on traditional publicity methods.

Under an agreement with the Nepali Congress (NC), Prime Minister Oli is set to hand over leadership to NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba. Once the transition occurs, UML leaders plan to fully concentrate on the 2027 elections. According to them, the NC and UML have agreed not to form an electoral alliance with the Maoist Center, although concerns remain that the NC could align with the Maoists ahead of the polls. UML leaders are confident, however, that if the three major parties—NC, UML, and the Maoist Center—compete separately, UML is poised to emerge as the largest party, owing to its robust organizational structure.

Speaking at a recent public event, Oli expressed optimism that the UML could secure a majority in the 2027 elections, noting that the Maoist Center has been steadily losing voter support and may struggle to maintain its status as a national party. The key competition, he said, is between the NC and UML, with all three communist factions—UML, CPN (Unified Socialist), and the Maoist Center—sharing a similar voter base.

Moreover, the rise of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) in the 2022 elections has posed a significant threat to both the UML and NC. Many voters from both parties supported RSP candidates as a protest against their respective leaderships. This trend is a growing concern for the established parties, as they seek to curb the rise of new political forces like the RSP and independent figures such as Kathmandu Mayor Balendra Shah, who have captured the youth vote. The emergence of new political parties signals a gradual decline in support for traditional parties, even though they remain the largest in terms of overall representation. Now, all political parties are working to revamp their organizations, with the 2027 elections in sight.