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The House of Representatives (HoR) on Wednesday endorsed the third amendment to the Enforced Disappearances Enquiry, Truth and Reconciliation Commission Act—a significant step toward addressing human rights violations from the decade-long conflict.

Following the HoR's approval, the bill will proceed to the National Assembly (NA) before being presented to President Ram Chandra Poudel for final authentication. The government aims to complete this process within the next 10 days, paving the way for new appointments to the Truth and Reconciliation Commission and the Commission of Investigation on Enforced Disappeared Persons—two transitional justice bodies established 10 years ago.

For a long time, major political parties held differing views on some provisions of the bill, but the Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, and CPN (Maoist Center) now claim to have reached an agreement. On Wednesday, all parties in Parliament supported this consensus. However, conflict victims have already voiced concerns, and the international community has yet to respond to the new agreement. Without their support, these transitional justice mechanisms may struggle to achieve meaningful progress.

While the agreement among the three parties is a positive development, it does not guarantee that the two commissions will be able to address the approximately 65,000 complaints filed by conflict victims. Experts caution that it could take years to investigate all the cases and deliver justice.

Addressing the House, Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba stated that the amended bill aligns with the concerns raised by Nepal’s Supreme Court and meets international standards. He expressed hope that the international community would welcome the bill's passage.

CPN (Maoist Center) Chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal, a key figure in the peace process, emphasized that there will be no blanket amnesty for serious human rights violations, a major concern of the international community. He noted, “Previously, there was a misconception that Nepal was granting amnesty for serious human rights violations. We have now reached an agreement that ensures no blanket amnesty. I believe this clarifies any confusion for the international community.” Dahal also mentioned that the international community has welcomed the agreement reached among the key political parties on contentious issues within the transitional justice mechanism.

In the past, both commissions were hindered by a weak mandate. While addressing the House, the prime minister pledged to establish stronger commissions based on this political agreement and committed the government's full support to their work.

It remains to be seen how the conflict victims and the international community will receive the amendment to the transitional justice laws. US Ambassador to Nepal Dean R Thompson was among the first diplomats to welcome the bill.

“Pleased to see the transitional justice bill passed by the House of Representatives today. Congratulations to the people of Nepal. This is a meaningful moment in Nepal’s journey to shaping its own peaceful, prosperous, resilient, and democratic future,” he wrote on X (formerly Twitter).

“Pleased to see the transitional justice bill passed by the House of Representatives today. Congratulations to the people of Nepal. This is a meaningful moment in Nepal’s journey to shaping its own peaceful, prosperous, resilient, and democratic future,”  said Dean R Thompson, US Ambassador to Nepal.

UN Resident Coordinator to Nepal Hanaa Singer-Hamdy in her X post has said: “Endorsement of TJ bill is a crucial step in completing the peace process. This milestone brings victims closer to truth, justice and reparations. It is imperative to engage victims at all stages of its operationalization. As a partner for peace, the UN stands ready to support.” 

Similarly, Veronique Lorenzo, Ambassador of the European Union to Nepal, said: Congratulations to Nepal and Nepali people for this historic achievement: passing of Nepal led and owned, victim-centric TRC bill by House of Representative.

The Central Working Committee meeting of the Nepali Congress has been postponed until next week to allow time for addressing several contentious issues within the party. While there is broad consensus regarding the formation of a new coalition with the CPN-UML, a range of internal disputes continues to polarize the party’s rival factions.

For an extended period, a power struggle has persisted among the factions led by Party President Sher Bahadur Deuba, senior leader Shekhar Koirala, and General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa. With Deuba ineligible to seek another term as party president, both Thapa and Koirala are vying for the leadership role. Simultaneously, both leaders are intent on preventing Deuba from assuming the prime ministership again, fearing he may leverage state power to influence the party convention in favor of his preferred successor.

Diverging opinions on the potential electoral alliance further complicate matters within the party. General Secretaries Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma advocate for a clear policy stipulating that the party should not engage in any pre-poll alliances. However, as the largest party, the NC faces significant challenges in contesting elections alone, particularly if the communist parties remain united. Consequently, Party President Deuba opposes making this stance an official party position.

Thapa’s political document was an instrumental factor in the collapse of the NC-Maoist coalition in March when former prime minister and CPN (Maoist Center) Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal aligned with the UML after the NC signaled its reluctance to form a pre-poll alliance. This maneuver left Dahal isolated, having lost the support of both the NC and UML. Reports suggest that the NC and UML have agreed not to pursue an electoral alliance with the Maoists, though this information remains unverified. The NC's experience in 2017, when it suffered a humiliating defeat after the UML and Maoists joined forces, led to a subsequent alliance with the Maoists that preserved its position as the largest political party. However, there is growing dissatisfaction within the party ranks, who argue that such alliances erode the party’s base, with many members unwilling to support the Maoists.

Deuba maintains that the party should not entirely close the door on potential alliances with other parties. This issue was prominently discussed during the party’s Mahasamiti meeting in February, yet no consensus was reached. Another contentious issue within the NC is Sharma’s proposed exit policy, which includes term limits for the president (one term), prime minister (two terms), ministers (three terms), and lawmakers (four terms). This proposal has met with strong opposition within the party, particularly from senior leaders who view it as a direct challenge to their influence.

Foreign Minister and Central Working Committee member Arzu Rana Deuba has publicly opposed the proposed term limits for the prime minister, arguing that such restrictions would be detrimental to the party's leadership structure. Within the NC, there are calls for the government to justify its alliance with the UML through its performance, with some CWC members advocating for the continuation of investigations into corruption scandals by the new government.

Another significant issue dividing the party is the upcoming general convention. Senior leader Shekhar Koirala has urged the party leadership to restore order within the party and ensure that the general convention proceeds as scheduled in Dec 2025. Speaking at a meeting, Koirala pressed President Deuba to commit to the scheduled convention and advocated for constitutional amendments to strengthen democracy and federalism. He also proposed reforms to the party structure, including amendments to the party statute to empower provincial committees, with the central leadership providing regulation while provinces implement programs. Koirala warned against postponing the general convention, cautioning that such a move could lead to dire consequences for both the NC and the broader democratic process.

Koirala expressed deep concern over the current political instability in South Asia, warning that Nepal could become a battleground for international political interests. Citing recent developments in Bangladesh, Koirala emphasized the need for a strong ethical foundation in politics to prevent similar instability in Nepal. He highlighted the growing public disillusionment with political leaders and institutions, urging the party to take these sentiments seriously.

“I have long advocated for a government formed by the two largest parties to end the protracted political instability in the country. The primary task of the current coalition government should be to initiate the process of constitutional amendment,” Koirala said. He stressed that these amendments must genuinely reflect the will of the Nepali people, ensuring that the constitution is a truly representative document. However, Koirala criticized the current government’s formation, particularly in terms of ministerial appointments at both the federal and provincial levels. “It is perplexing why parties consistently fail to prioritize good governance despite their promises,” he remarked.

Koirala also pointed out that, eight years after the promulgation of the Constitution, provinces have yet to fully exercise their constitutional rights. He called for immediate measures to strengthen fiscal and administrative federalism, urging the two major parties to use their collective strength in government to empower the provinces effectively. “If Nepali Congress ministers in the current government fail to earn public trust and confidence, the party risks facing an unforeseen decline,” he warned. 

Koirala also called for a renewal of the party’s values and principles, better governance from those in power, and unity among party members. He expressed concern about the rising tide of populism in politics, noting that even the Nepali Congress has not been immune to this trend. Koirala cautioned against allowing social media and populist tendencies to dictate the party’s direction, urging members and leaders to return to the party’s core principles and ideologies.

In 2009, President Ram Baran Yadav decisively countered Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal's ill-advised attempt to dismiss Army Chief Rookmangud Katawal. The reinstatement of the Army Chief led to Dahal’s resignation, which he framed as a defiant stand against external interference, particularly from India. Dahal famously declared that he would engage only with the “masters” (India) and not with the “servants” (Nepali parties).

Fast forward fifteen years, and Dahal, during a party meeting, shifted his blame to the United States, alleging that external powers, including the US, played a role in his recent ouster from the government, along with that of Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

Since his entry into peaceful politics in 2006, Dahal has frequently made controversial and often unsubstantiated statements, consistently keeping himself at the forefront of national discourse. His rhetoric has often relied on anti-India nationalism as a tool to strengthen his political standing. Today, he appears to be using the same tactic, insinuating that foreign powers orchestrated his dismissal because he resisted their agendas.

Dahal’s self-serving narrative has inflicted more damage on his party and his own reputation than on any external entity. Within the Maoist ranks, there is growing concern that their decade-long armed struggle, which paved the way for republicanism and federalism in Nepal, will be in vain if the party continues on its current path. Yet, this existential threat seems lost on Dahal.

When in opposition, Dahal has a history of making headlines with provocative and unexpected remarks. Despite being out of power for just a month, he has already made a series of statements that have drawn public attention. Among these is his claim that the US was involved in a regime change in Kathmandu. Following the formation of a new government under CPN-UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli, Dahal accused forces opposed to good governance of engineering the split within his party.

Recently, Dahal made a surprising announcement that he would not seek the prime ministership until after the 2027 elections, catching even his own party members off guard. He stated, “I will not become prime minister during this tenure of Parliament. I may consider it only if our party emerges as the largest in the 2027 elections.”

During a recent meeting in Koshi province, Dahal admitted to several mistakes, including his failure to prevent the party split, mishandling of the Maoist combatants during peace talks, mismanagement of party cadres, and his decision not to support Girija Prasad Koirala for the presidency. He also indicated a shift in strategy, asserting that his party would contest the next election independently, marking a departure from his previous alliances with UML in 2017 and Nepali Congress in 2022, despite these coalitions failing to halt the party’s decline.

Dahal also hinted at rekindling alliances with fringe communist and non-communist forces, including discussions with former Maoist splinter groups and CPN (Unified Socialist) led by Madhav Kumar Nepal. This stands in stark contrast to his past criticism of these fringe groups while he was in power. Notably, he has revived the agenda of a directly elected chief executive, an idea the Maoists abandoned during the 2015 constitution drafting process, citing that the current parliamentary system has tainted the Maoist party.

Dahal deliberately ‘sowed division’: Sharma 

Within CPN (Maoist Center), Dahal’s leadership is under severe scrutiny. The recent proposal by Maoist Deputy General Secretary Janardan Sharma has sent shockwaves through the party, exposing deep concerns about the party’s direction and leadership. Sharma’s allegations that rumors of party splits were deliberately spread by the leadership have instilled widespread fear among party members and the public.

“The rumors started from Khumaltar (Dahal’s residence), intensified in Baluwatar (Prime Minister’s residence), and escalated further in Pokhara where the party leadership asked members to choose sides,” Sharma’s proposal states. “This sequence of events has created a widespread fear of party division among cadres and the general public.”

Sharma’s proposal criticizes Dahal for sowing division within the party, ignoring crucial discussions during key conventions, and for adopting a royal-like lifestyle that has alienated the party's core supporters.

“Baluwatar has directly named Janardan Sharma as the instigator of the split. This has led to daily phone calls from hundreds of worried party workers and citizens and has become a topic of concern for other political parties, security agencies, and even the bureaucracy,” the proposal claims.

Sharma has questioned why the 8th General Convention was undermined by the announcement of a special convention. He also criticized the leadership for disregarding discussions and opinions expressed during the Statute Convention, questioning why some members were not allowed to speak. He also inquired why propaganda campaigns were orchestrated against him and Barsha Man Pun while the party was in government.

Sharma further questioned why efforts were being made to divide rather than unite leaders at various levels within the party and why parallel committees were being operated by the leadership itself. He also questioned the rationale behind the frequent changes in government coalitions.

Sharma also criticized the party’s failure to implement key policies when it held government power, such as transferring police authority to provinces and supporting local governments. Sharma’s criticism points to a party that is shrinking, losing the trust of the constituencies that once supported it, and failing to fulfill its promises.

He attributed the party’s declining support base to the leadership’s failure to deliver on promises made during their time in government. The proposal highlights that the public disapproves of the leadership’s lifestyle, likened to that of royalty, and the disconnect between the party and its core supporters. Sharma questioned whether the party can rebuild public trust by revisiting and delivering on the issues and slogans it once championed for the people.

Sharma also raised concerns about the leadership’s stance and decisions on several policy matters. He accused the leadership of resisting calls to add ‘Kirant’ to the name of Koshi province. Sharma questioned why proposals to transfer police authority to provinces and shift small and medium-sized projects and budgets to local and provincial governments were not implemented when the party held key government positions. 

He also revealed that he was removed from his work area as a punitive measure, stating, “Despite my four-decade-long loyalty and cooperation with the leadership, my actions are being met with suspicion. The chairperson believes in creating larger conflicts to resolve smaller ones, which is causing significant harm to the party.”

Sharma has proposed dissolving the central committee and forming an interim committee under Chairperson Dahal, with the mandate to hold a convention and elect new leadership through direct elections by a specified date.

Dahal’s recent statements include

• An assertion that an “invisible force” united the NC and UML.
• A claim that a significant nationalist faction exists within UML.
• The suggestion that investigating large corruption cases led to his government’s dissolution.
• A declaration that the Maoists will contest the 2027 election independently.
• An admission of committing “five major blunders.”
• Recognition of the new government’s consensus on the TRC as an achievement.
• His refusal to seek the prime ministership until after the 2027 elections.
• Allegations that extra-regional powers were responsible for his and Sheikh Hasina’s ouster.
• A call to consolidate all fringe communist parties.
• A critique that the existing parliamentary system has corrupted the Maoist party.
• A push for a directly elected President or Prime Minister for greater stability.

Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri arrived in Kathmandu on Sunday for a two-day official visit. His arrival represents a pivotal moment for both India and Nepal, offering a chance to align their strategic priorities and deepen mutual understanding.

Misri, a seasoned diplomat with a distinguished reputation as a China specialist, was appointed Foreign Secretary last month. In line with tradition, his inaugural diplomatic mission took him to neighboring countries, with Nepal being a significant stop. 

This visit follows the recent establishment of a new government in Nepal, led by CPN-UML Chairperson KP Sharma Oli, in coalition with the Nepali Congress. Soon after his arrival in Kathmandu, Misri engaged in comprehensive consultations with Nepali leaders, focusing on political and developmental issues of shared concern.

In his meeting with Prime Minister Oli, Misri reaffirmed the enduring, multifaceted relationship between India and Nepal, emphasizing the need to invigorate various sectors of bilateral cooperation. Discussions with President Ram Chandra Poudel similarly centered on strengthening ties across all domains, with a particular emphasis on enhanced collaboration in addressing climate change—a critical issue for both nations. Misri held talks with top leaders of the major parties. 

Misri also inaugurated the new building of the Nepal Bhasha Parishad in Kathmandu, constructed under India’s post-earthquake reconstruction grant.

Over recent years, India-Nepal relations have seen notable advancements, particularly in connectivity projects, power trade, and other areas of cooperation. However, lingering distrust persists, stemming from the strained ties during Oli’s previous tenure in 2016 and the  map dispute in 2020. Despite these challenges, there has been a perceptible improvement in trust between the two nations, with India gradually overcoming perceptions of favoritism toward the Nepali Congress-Maoist coalition.

Oli’s return to power, his third in a decade, comes at a time of cautious optimism. His first term in 2015 was marked by the Indian economic blockade, and his second, in 2018, by a strong mandate following the formation of the Nepal Communist Party.  In Oli’s latest tenure, both India and Nepal appear to be in a phase of careful observation and strategic recalibration. Analysts say that Misri’s visit can be instrumental in allowing both sides to communicate their concerns and interests openly. This visit is expected to be followed by a visit from Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba, aimed at laying the groundwork for Prime Minister Oli’s upcoming visit to India. 

Given the complexities in India’s neighborhood, particularly concerning the unfolding situation in Bangladesh following the ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, New Delhi is expected to approach its relations with Kathmandu with heightened caution and diplomacy. On contentious issues such as the border map dispute, both sides have agreed to resolve them through diplomatic channels. With the two largest parties, Congress and UML, holding a significant majority in Parliament, observers say that New Delhi will find it easier to collaborate with the new government. This coalition, likely to remain stable for the next three years, provides a conducive environment for advancing bilateral relations. 

As the Oli-led government faces the daunting task of economic recovery, it is seeking increased assistance and investment from the international community, including India. Enhanced economic partnership, therefore, remains a mutual priority for both Kathmandu and New Delhi.

This week, political turmoil in Bangladesh dominated discourse across all levels of society. Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who held power for 16 years, fled the country following massive student-led protests demanding the end of reservation quotas for the grandchildren of those who fought in the 1971 liberation movement. What began as a student movement quickly escalated into a popular political uprising that played into the hands of opposition parties. In Nepal, the events in Bangladesh sparked debates on two main fronts—what Nepal can learn from this situation, and whether Nepali leaders might face a similar fate if they do not address public grievances.

There are several lessons Nepal can draw from Bangladesh: Strengthening democratic institutions, ensuring a level playing field for all political parties, linking economic growth with poverty alleviation, creating jobs, and safeguarding freedom of speech and expression. Nepal’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement responding to the recent developments, saying, “We call for calm and restraint by all and stress the importance of an orderly return to the democratic process. We are confident that the strong and resilient people of Bangladesh will ensure a smooth transition toward peace and stability.”

With these new developments, concerns have arisen over the bilateral relationship between Nepal and Bangladesh, which had been progressing steadily during Hasina’s tenure. The two countries were close to finalizing details on energy trade, but it is uncertain whether this will remain a priority for the new interim government in Bangladesh, which is currently focused on preparing for the next elections. There are also concerns about several bilateral projects that have been in discussion over the past few years. Additionally, Nepal has tightened its border with India to prevent a possible influx of refugees from Bangladesh via India. Despite these challenges, the substantial growth in Nepal-Bangladesh relations over the past decade is likely to remain unaffected.

On domestic issues, the top leaders of Nepal’s three major parties—Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, and CPN (Maoist Center)—have reported progress on disputed transitional justice issues. A cross-party task force has submitted its report to Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba, and Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, with a commitment to endorse the bill to amend the Transitional Justice Act. Since 2015, these parties have faced pressure from conflict victims and the international community to amend the Act in line with the Supreme Court’s verdict and international standards. If the three parties can unite, it will be easier to resolve Nepal’s transitional justice process.

In another story, concerns over air safety were heightened following another air crash within two weeks. An Air Dynasty helicopter crashed in Nuwakot, killing five people, including the pilot and four passengers. This follows the July 24 crash of a Saurya Airlines plane at Tribhuvan International Airport, which killed 18 of the 19 people on board. The series of crashes has placed the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) under public scrutiny, as it is responsible for ensuring safety measures. The repeated incidents are likely to have negative repercussions on Nepal’s tourism industry. Parliamentarians have already raised questions about the governance within CAAN, and Tourism Minister Badri Pandey has vowed to devote one week to investigating the causes of these repeated crashes.

In politics, Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal continued to make headlines this week, declaring that he would not seek the position of prime minister before the 2027 elections, and if the party gains the opportunity, the next leader will assume the role. Just last week, he had announced that the Maoists would contest the next election on their own. However, Maoist party leaders remain skeptical of Dahal’s announcement.

Meanwhile, Nepali Congress President Deuba faced criticism this week for doing little to strengthen the  party organization and instead focusing on consolidating his power. Under pressure from party leaders, Deuba did appoint coordinators for the party’s 37 departments this week.

Additionally, two significant documents were submitted to the Nepali Congress party office this week—one by General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa and the other by Vice-Chairman Purna Bahadur Khadka. Thapa’s document, which opposes forming electoral alliances in the next elections, previously irritated the Maoists. However, with the recent changes in the national political landscape, the NC and UML have agreed not to pursue electoral alliances.

A few weeks ago, a senior UML leader revealed that the NC and UML had agreed not to form an electoral alliance. In the NC meeting this week, Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak informed party members that the NC and UML plan to pursue constitutional amendments, though he did not specify the issues. He cautioned against undermining this agreement, warning that such mistakes could lead to a political disaster.

In another development, a Cabinet meeting removed Shyam Lal Gyawali from the Central Investigation Bureau (CIB), which received mixed reactions, and transferred Deepak Thapa to CIB. 

At the provincial level, the formation of a new alliance at the center has led to the formation of new governments in provinces. However, Madhes province has drawn criticism for appointing 20 ministers, as this could strain state resources.

That’s all for this week. Have a great weekend.

Top leaders of three major parties—Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, and CPN (Maoist Center)—have pledged to endorse the amendment bill related to the Transitional Justice Act through the current session of the House of Representatives. Prime Minister and CPN-UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli, Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba, and CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal made this commitment while receiving a report prepared by a cross-party panel formed to address the contentious issues in the bill, particularly those related to serious human rights violations.

“I consider this a success achieved after the formation of the new government under Prime Minister Oli,” said Dahal after receiving the report. He added, “Now the bill, which is in the parliamentary committee, should be forwarded to the full House and endorsed through this session of Parliament.” A cross-party task force comprising Ramesh Lekhak from NC, Mahesh Bartaula from UML, and Janardhan Sharma from Maoist Center worked hard to forge consensus on the contentious issues of the Enforced Disappearances Enquiry, Truth and Reconciliation Commission Act. According to Lekhak, who now heads the Ministry of Home Affairs, issues of reconciliation, reparation, and prosecution were addressed while considering the concerns of the victims.

Prime Minister Oli said that consensus was achieved considering the Supreme Court’s 2015 verdict, meeting international standards, and addressing the concerns of the victims. He added that the government would expedite tasks related to appointments in the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) and the Commission of Investigation on Enforced Disappeared Persons (CIEDP), two transitional justice mechanisms formed in 2015. Oli also said that there are no longer any ambiguities or confusions regarding the transitional justice laws. The international community has yet to react to the agreement reached among the three major leaders.

NC President Deuba remarked that Nepal would set an example in the international arena if the transitional justice process is amicably settled. He said that if the task force’s resolutions are endorsed by Parliament and war-era human rights cases are settled, it would send a positive message to the world. The TRC and CIEDP, formed in 2015 to address transitional justice mechanisms, have struggled due to the absence of laws in line with the Supreme Court’s 2015 verdict and international standards.

Over the past 10 years, the two commissions have made some progress. The TRC has registered 63,718 complaints, including 314 related to rape and sexual violence. Similarly, the CIEDP has recorded 3,000 complaints. Both commissions have completed preliminary investigations on some cases. However, in recent years, they have been without heads and members, rendering them virtually defunct. Their tenures are being renewed to prevent complete collapse.

Disputes among parties primarily revolve around how to address serious human rights violations committed during the insurgency era. The international community insists that there should be no amnesty for serious human rights violations. Although the three parties claim to have resolved the disputed issues, it remains to be seen how Parliament, the international community, and most importantly, the conflict victims will respond.

This week Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli made three major decisions: appointing ambassadors to 18 countries, issuing a long list of directives to government secretaries to improve governance and service delivery, and transferring government secretaries.

His quick decision to appoint ambassadors has been well-received by the public, though it has faced criticism for favoring party members over experts in foreign policy and diplomacy. Additionally, the appointments are not very inclusive, despite the government's inclusive policy. This is not a new issue, as ambassadorial appointments have followed this pattern for a long time, with leaders rarely heeding public suggestions.

The ambassadorial appointments by the Oli administration also led to the resignation of Shanker Das Bairagi as the national security advisor. A former government secretary, Bairagi was appointed the national security advisor by former Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal. He quit the post in hopes of becoming the ambassador to India, but his bid was unsuccessful with the government’s decision to give continuity to the incumbent, Shankar Sharma.

Also this week, Prime Minister  Oli, like his predecessors, issued a 26-point directive to government ministers and secretaries, assuring them that this coalition will fulfill its full three-year term. He also mentioned he would resign a week before the end of his two-year term, in accordance with a gentleman's agreement between the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML. It remains to be seen if Oli’s directives will be implemented, as there is a poor track record in this regard. For example, former PM Dahal issued a similar directive, only to express frustration after three months due to non-implementation. The bureaucracy typically shows little enthusiasm for aligning with politicians’ priorities.

The government also transferred several government secretaries. Politicians often talk about political and policy stability but frequently transfer secretaries. While one round of transfers following the formation of a new government can be justified, repeated transfers, as seen under Dahal’s leadership, disrupt the working environment. If Prime Minister Oli genuinely wants to improve governance, he must address these issues or risk losing bureaucratic support.

In another story, Minister for Home Affairs Ramesh Lekhak faced criticism this week for transferring senior police officers involved in investigating high-profile corruption cases. He also initiated an investigation against AIG Shyam Gyawali following a series of complaints. Lekhak has stated he will not allow the misuse of administration to protect individuals or suppress political opponents. His path ahead is challenging, as he must balance allowing independent police investigations with potential political pressures to sideline certain cases.

The CPN (Maoist Center), now in opposition for the first time in nearly 10 years, held a meeting to discuss its future path. Leaders acknowledged neglecting party-building while in power and decided to contest the 2027 elections alone, though this is unlikely to happen.

Meanwhile, CPN-UML General Secretary Shankar Pokhrel sparked debate by suggesting changes to electoral laws to prevent the rise of fringe parties, which he argues is necessary for political stability. He proposed increasing the threshold percentage, a move likely to be opposed by smaller parties. Pokhrel has long advocated for a two-party system in Nepal.

Another significant development of this week was that a consensus was reached among political parties on transitional justice issues related to human rights violations during the insurgency period. However, this agreement must be endorsed by the Ministry of Law and Parliament. If the NC, UML, and the Maoist Center agree, it may proceed, but it remains uncertain if conflict victims and the international community will accept it.

This week also saw a change in the leadership of Nepal Army after Ashok Raj Sigdel was elevated to the post of acting chief of the army. He will be in full charge of the army within a month. This change is unlikely to impact national politics, as the NA has largely maintained its apolitical reputation, unlike Nepal Police and other institutions where political meddling is rife. 

Another notable story this week was the rejection of Krishna Man Pradhan’s nomination as a member of the Election Commission by the Parliamentary Hearing Committee. The committee reached its decision hours after Pradhan, who was unanimously nominated on June 16 by the Constitutional Council led by former Prime Minister Dahal, withdrew himself from the hearing process. Pradhan’s nomination was disputed after a woman filed a complaint claiming that he had sexually exploited her for years. This rare decision by the hearing committee is a positive step, underscoring the importance of parliamentary screening for constitutional body appointments.

Since 2017, the CPN (Maoist Center) has been securing its political standing through alliances with either the Nepali Congress (NC) or the CPN-UML. In the 2017 elections, an alliance with the UML helped the party win 53 seats in the 275-member House of Representatives (HoR). By 2022, an electoral partnership with the NC resulted in 32 seats.

With neither the NC nor UML securing a clear majority, the Maoist Center, as the third largest party, enjoyed the role of a kingmaker. It used this privileged position to its advantage and, after 2017, its Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal managed to become prime minister twice.

However, the unexpected alliance between NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba and UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli on July 1 midnight has relegated Dahal and his party to the opposition. Reports suggest that Deuba and Oli have agreed not to form an electoral alliance with the Maoists in the 2027 elections.

Senior CPN-UML leader Ishwar Pokhrel's revelation of this agreement has further agitated the Maoist party, with leaders accusing the two largest parties of conspiring against them. 

This week, the Maoist Center announced its intention to contest the 2027 election without any electoral alliance, despite the election being three years away. Maoist leaders view this as an opportunity to prepare for a solo campaign, allowing them to present their clear ideology and perspective to the public. Party Spokesperson Agni Sapkota noted that previous alliances hindered the party’s ability to communicate its ideology and programs effectively.

However, political observers doubt the Maoists will stick to this decision, suggesting it may be an attempt to boost cadre morale. Without an alliance, the Maoists are likely to become weaker. Meanwhile, Dahal is already preparing to form an alliance of communist parties for the 2027 elections. Recently, he reconstituted the Socialist Front, a loose network of fringe communist parties, including the CPN (Unified Socialist) led by former Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal. Dahal is trying to revive the idea of left consolidation, expressing concern over UML leaders’ desire to see a leftist alliance like in 2018.

Dahal is acutely aware of the party’s weakening position due to multiple splits since joining peaceful politics and his focus on government formation. Since 2008, the party has suffered at least five splits, significantly weakening its position, particularly in urban areas. The party still holds sway in certain constituencies of the mid-western district, the heartland of the Maoist insurgency, and some pockets of the hilly region. However, its urban base is crumbling.

For instance, in Kathmandu-2, senior Maoist leader Onsari Gharti lost despite an alliance with the NC, and Dahal himself is known for frequently changing his constituencies to find more favorable support. In 2022, he contested from Gorkha-2 with support from Baburam Bhattarai, who has a stronghold in that constituency. It remains uncertain where Dahal will contest the next parliamentary elections. Contesting alone would be a daunting task for the Maoists, and Dahal will likely seek support from Maoist splinter groups, though this may not be enough to secure victory.

In an effort to strengthen the party, Dahal has announced a nationwide tour to reconnect with the people and understand their problems. Even senior Maoist leaders acknowledge the party’s significantly degraded position.

Senior Maoist leader Haribol Gajurel resigned this week, admitting responsibility for the party’s decline and calling for other senior officials to do the same to initiate a fresh start. He emphasized the need for a serious review of the party's weakening position to avoid further setbacks. Gajurel, formerly Dahal's chief political advisor, had previously resigned in protest of several government decisions. 

Similar to the NC and UML, the Maoist party is plagued by factional politics and leadership tussles, with ongoing disputes about Dahal's successor. But unlike NC and UML, the Maoist party is unlikely to survive the next elections without forging strategic alliances.