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This week, two major political parties—Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML—made significant decisions that could shape Nepali politics for years, particularly if they maintain these positions until the 2027 national elections. The NC has decided to reorganize its party structure to strengthen its ability to contest the 2027 elections independently, signaling a move away from pre-election alliances, particularly with the CPN (Maoist Center).

However, NC’s decision is somewhat unclear, as its leadership is under pressure to resist any pre-election alliances. The UML, currently the ruling party and a key competitor of NC, has made a similar decision. The UML is working on a strategy to boost its strength ahead of the 2027 elections, aiming to emerge as the largest political party. Despite leading the government, the party’s focus seems squarely on the upcoming elections.

These decisions are troubling for the CPN (Maoist Center), the third-largest party, which relies heavily on coalition politics to maintain its status. Maoist Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal has expressed concern, suggesting that there are efforts to push Nepal toward a two-party system. Meanwhile, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), which made a strong showing in the 2022 elections, may welcome the NC and UML’s decisions. Without alliances among the major parties, the RSP could increase its chances of electoral success.

The durability of this shift will depend on the stability of the current coalition. Should the Maoist Center once again play the role of kingmaker, its condition for supporting NC or UML would likely be the formation of an electoral alliance. This would apply not only in national elections but also in other political contexts, as Dahal favors pre-election alliances.

It’s also possible that NC might still seek an alliance with the Maoist Center to counter UML’s organizational strength at the grassroots level. NC’s internal struggles over this decision are evident, with leaders like Shekhar Koirala and Gagan Thapa optimistic about their chances of winning solo, despite the party’s general weakening at the local level. The upcoming NC general convention in 2026, just before the elections, could lead to a reversal of the current stance depending on the leadership at that time.

In another story this week, there were murmurs suggesting cracks in the UML-NC coalition. However, NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba has downplayed such concerns, stating that NC and UML share similar positions on key national issues, and the coalition remains stable.

Also this week, RSP Chairperson Rabi Lamichhane was grilled by Pokhara police over his alleged involvement in the misappropriation of cooperative funds. There are reports that Pokhara police are preparing to file a case against him. Meanwhile, Surya Thapa, a member of the parliamentary probe committee on cooperatives, revealed this week that Gorkha Media, with which Lamichhane was associated, had indeed taken money from cooperatives. Following these incidents, Lamichhane, previously a high-ranking media figure and former Home Minister, met with Prime Minister Dahal and NC President Deuba, possibly seeking their support to avoid legal action.

Tensions between Prime Minister Oli and Maoist Chairperson Dahal intensified this week. While Oli continues to accuse Dahal of fostering anarchy, Dahal has warned of a potential people’s uprising to unseat the government, drawing parallels to recent events in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

In other developments this week, the parliamentary hearing on the proposed ambassadors to 18 countries has sparked criticism, with many on social media mocking the ambitious and unrealistic promises made by the candidates.

On a more positive note, the transitional justice process has received a boost with the passage of key bills, supported by 10 major countries, including China—a rare instance of China publicly endorsing Nepal’s transitional justice efforts. Western nations and China appear to be aligned on this issue, while India, which raised concerns about this process in 2015, remains silent. Conflict victims have expressed mixed feelings, supporting the bill but with some reservations. A writ has been filed in the Supreme Court to determine whether the new legislation meets the criteria set by the court’s historic verdict. The government is expected to begin appointments to transitional justice bodies soon.

In the Parliamentary Committee on International Relations and Tourism, Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba faced numerous questions related to relations with India and China this week. She revealed that India has not extended an official invitation to Prime Minister Oli, although there may be an opportunity for him to meet Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the postponed BIMSTEC summit. 

Prime Minister Oli is scheduled to travel to New York in the third week of this month to attend the UN General Assembly. There is speculation about whether Oli will visit China before India if he receives an invitation from Beijing. Foreign Minister Deuba also revealed that the Indian side has already begun preparations for Modi’s visit to Nepal.

Finally, provincial governments are still incomplete as the process of appointing ministers continues, which is hindering their ability to function effectively.

That’s all for this week. Have a great weekend!

Following the Nepali Congress’s ambiguous stance on forming a pre-election alliance, the ruling and second-largest party in Parliament, CPN-UML, has decided to contest the 2027 national elections alone. This decision comes amid reports suggesting an understanding between the two parties not to form a pre-poll alliance with the CPN (Maoist Center).

If this plan materializes, it will mark the first time since the 2013 Constituent Assembly elections that the three major parties—NC, UML, and Maoist—will contest the elections separately. In the 2013 elections, the NC secured the first position, the UML polled in second, and the Maoists finished a distant third. Since 2017, these parties have regularly formed electoral alliances for both local and national elections. Within the UML, there is optimism that if the NC and the Maoists do not form an alliance, the party could emerge as the largest due to its strong grassroots organization. Since the 2022 national elections, the UML has been actively engaging in various campaigns in preparation for the 2027 national elections.

UML leaders say after handing over power to NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba as per the current agreement, the party will fully focus on the elections. However, they recognize the challenges posed by the rise of new political parties, particularly the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), and the growing disillusionment among the youth with traditional political parties. The decisions of the NC and UML not to form pre-election alliances are seen as a significant setback for the Maoist Center, which has managed to retain its third position through electoral alliances either with the NC or the UML. 

The UML is now planning an ambitious third phase of its campaign, aimed at securing a single-party majority in the 2027 elections. After the ‘Mission Grassroots’ and ‘Mid-hills Resolution March’ campaigns, the party is brainstorming a new initiative to expand its influence nationwide. General Secretary Shankar Pokharel presented a comprehensive 33-page plan during a Politburo meeting on Tuesday.

Addressing the meeting, Prime Minister and UML Chairperson KP Sharma Oli made it clear that the party will not enter any electoral alliances for the 2027 elections. He directed party leaders to focus on securing a single majority and emphasized the importance of strengthening provincial committees and developing grassroots plans. Oli also called for unity within the party and the resolution of internal disputes to ensure effective election preparations. He reaffirmed his commitment to handing over power to the NC as per the current agreement, stating, “The transition will occur on schedule. This government will remain in office for the next one year, 10 months, and 15 days.”

UML General Secretary Pokharel’s action plan includes a target of increasing party membership to one million within 18 months. The plan suggests achieving this by recruiting three percent of total voters at the ward level and 6 percent at the municipal and district levels. To strengthen the party organization, the UML plans to hold transparent and regular conventions at all levels and prioritize consensus-based leadership selection, though fair elections will be held when necessary.

Pokharel also proposed assigning suitable responsibilities to those stepping down from leadership roles during conventions. He noted that neglecting the management of individuals who step down, retire, or join from other parties during conventions has created confusion within the party. The proposal stresses the importance of managing these individuals as part of the broader campaign for political consolidation.

The UML also plans to implement a systematic evaluation process for party leaders at all levels, including central committee members and office bearers, to ensure accountability and effectiveness. Pokharel’s proposal states that the  general secretary will evaluate the performance of central committee members and report to the party chairperson, who will be responsible for evaluating the work of central office bearers.

Additionally, the party aims to promote institutional decision-making through secretariat or full committee meetings to resolve internal conflicts and strengthen unity. The UML also proposes establishing permanent party schools at various levels to provide ideological training for both new and existing members. The plan includes creating a training curriculum and producing trainers to conduct these sessions.

To achieve the goals of its ‘Mission 2027’ campaign, the UML plans to effectively mobilize its ministers in the federal government and local representatives to promote its achievements and implement people-centric policies. The proposal emphasizes the need to maintain efficient party offices and enhance public relations and communication strategies. To strengthen its financial base, the party plans to systematically collect levies from members and explore potential income sources. The proposal also calls for party leaders and cadres to maintain simple lifestyles and high moral standards to preserve public trust.

The UML has identified leadership development, strengthening and expanding party organizations, youth engagement, public relations, and overseas party work as its five priority areas. The successful implementation of these decisions will largely depend on the future of the current coalition with the NC. If this alliance breaks down and Maoist Center Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal re-emerges as a kingmaker, there is a high likelihood of a reversal in these plans. 

At this point, Dahal is likely to support either UML or NC only if a pre-poll alliance is in place, as this is crucial for retaining his party’s strength. Major parties also fear that the RSP and the emergence of new independent candidates could pose significant challenges in the upcoming elections.

For a long time, Nepali Congress (NC) General Secretaries Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma have been pressuring the party leadership to take a clear stance against forming any pre-election alliances, like the one with the Maoists in the 2022 elections.

Thapa and Sharma are essentially trying to address concerns among grassroots cadres who are reluctant to support the Maoist party due to lingering animosities from the insurgency era. During the 10-year insurgency, Maoist cadres targeted NC members, killing many, seizing their properties, and expelling them from their homes.

As a result, many NC cadres at the local level are unwilling to vote for the Maoists, preferring instead to support a royalist party like the Rastriya Prajatantra Party. This resistance contributed to the poor conversion of NC votes into support for Maoist candidates, not only in parliamentary elections but also in the National Assembly elections. With Friday’s decision by the NC, it seems Thapa and Sharma have partially succeeded in advancing their position, although the decision does not explicitly rule out future electoral alliances.

“We will re-establish the Nepali Congress as a party capable of securing a majority on its own by further energizing our organization and increasing public trust and support,” reads the party’s decision. However, it does not prevent the party leadership from making last-minute decisions regarding electoral alliances. Although Thapa and Sharma believe the party can emerge as the largest without an alliance, the party’s organizational strength has significantly weakened in recent years due to inaction.

The NC is plagued by faction feuds from the central to grassroots levels, and little effort has been made to revitalize the party organization. The party’s main competitor, CPN-UML, is known for its robust organizational strength and has been launching a series of organizational campaigns even after the 2022 elections. Despite the alliance between the NC and the Maoists in 2022, the UML managed to secure an equal number of popular votes as the NC. It will be challenging for the NC to compete with the UML in many constituencies, especially as some NC cadres and leaders are gradually shifting to new parties. 

A senior NC leader commented, “We are in a difficult situation because grassroots sentiment is against the alliance, but our organization is weak, and we cannot rule out the possibility of all communist parties uniting.” This is why NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba appears hesitant to make a decisive move, leading the party’s Central Committee meeting to adopt a somewhat ambiguous decision.

The party’s Central Working Committee (CWC) approved a proposal that Thapa had presented during the meeting of the Mahasamiti, the party’s highest policy-decision making body, in February. However, the Mahasamiti was unable to decide on the proposal at the time due to opposition from Deuba. The Mahasamiti then decided to discuss the proposal in the central working committee meeting.

Deuba had instructed Thapa to revise the proposal, arguing that forming alliances is a strategic decision made before the election and not something to be publicly declared. However, Thapa refused to revise the proposal.

Political analysts suggest that Thapa’s proposal was one of the factors that led CPN (Maoist Center) Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal to break alliance with the NC and form a new coalition with the UML in March. However, Dahal’s new coalition was short-lived, as the NC and UML announced a new coalition on July 1.

While the CWC meeting was ongoing, Deuba held a separate meeting with Vice Presidents Purna Bahadur Khadka and Dhanraj Gurung; General Secretaries Thapa and Sharma; and CWC member Ramesh Lekhak to forge a consensus on three proposals submitted by Khadka, Thapa, and Sharma. These meetings, held on Tuesday and Thursday, reached a consensus, and a framework was laid out for decisions that were eventually adopted by the CWC.

Although the party approved the proposals submitted by Khadka and Thapa, it did not pass Sharma’s proposal related to term limits. Sharma had proposed limiting leaders to one term as President, two terms as Prime Minister, three terms as Minister, and four terms as a Member of Parliament. For provinces, Sharma proposed that a leader could not serve more than two terms as Chief Minister, three terms as Minister, and four terms as a Provincial Assembly Member.

Leaders close to Deuba opposed this proposal, arguing that it was designed to prevent Deuba from becoming Prime Minister again. “I won’t rule myself out of the premiership just because you suggest it. I am not ready to give up the position yet,” Deuba reportedly said during the meeting.

The meeting decided that necessary decisions regarding term limits for various positions would be made during the constitutional amendment process. Although the meeting agreed to hold the upcoming general convention within the stipulated time frame, it did not set a specific date.

This week Ashok Raj Sigdel was appointed as the 45th Chief of the Nepali Army. He will be in charge effective from Sept 9. His predecessor, Prabhu Ram Sharma, had an average performance. During his tenure, Sharma effectively suppressed the debate on the need to right-size the Nepali Army, even causing senior politicians to backtrack on their positions. Sharma publicly accused certain individuals of deliberately fueling this debate to weaken the army.

The Nepali Army generally shows minimal interest in involving itself in politics, and politicians are typically eager to support any proposals the army puts forward. As a result, the appointment of the army chief has become a routine process, lacking the disagreements that are often seen in the Nepal Police. However, in recent years, senior army officials have faced increased scrutiny for allegedly manipulating key documents such as citizenship and educational certificates. This situation highlights the need for systematic investigations into these issues. Moreover, civilian oversight of the Nepal Army has weakened significantly, and media coverage of the army’s transparency has dwindled.

Talking about appointments, Chief Justice Bishowambhar Prasad Shrestha is set to retire next month, but there have been no preparations to recommend a new chief justice or fill the remaining judicial vacancies. The Nepal Bar Association this week urged the government to initiate the process. In recent years, Nepal’s judiciary has become highly politicized, leading to a loss of public trust in some cases.

In another story this week, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s directive to senior home ministry officials to facilitate the process of issuing citizenship to Prakash Tamang sparked a debate about government functioning. Any Nepali citizen can typically acquire citizenship from the district administration office without difficulty. However, the incident underscores the challenges Nepali citizens face in accessing basic government services and indicates a need for systemic reforms to ensure that eligible citizens can obtain citizenship without undue hassle.

This week, CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal remained in the national spotlight. He expressed regret over breaking the alliance with the Nepali Congress (NC) last March and stated that his party would not passively witness the government’s misconduct. Dahal also warned the leaders of both the CPN-UML and NC not to approach him for support if their alliance encountered challenges. Despite publicly stating his reluctance to re-enter government, Dahal’s actions suggest otherwise. He has already begun forming alliances with fringe communist parties, positioning himself for future political maneuvering.

The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) Summit, scheduled for Sept 3-4, has been postponed due to political developments in the host country, Thailand. Prime Minister Oli was expected to attend the summit and meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Now, preparations are underway for Oli to visit New York to attend the United Nations General Assembly, though it is unclear whether he will meet with US officials during his visit. There have been no updates on a potential visit to India, but after Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba’s meeting with Modi, Oli may be eager to meet with the Indian prime minister. Since the formation of the Oli-led government, there have been high-level exchanges with India and the US, but no visits to or from Beijing.

Onto politics, the ruling Nepali Congress plunged into another internal conflict this week. Senior leaders such as Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma have taken positions advocating for term limits for prime ministers and ministers. Thapa insists that the party should officially decide not to forge any electoral alliances in the upcoming general elections. Party President Sher Bahadur Deuba, however, believes that these issues should be settled at the party’s general convention in 2026, just before the general elections. Another senior leader, Shekhar Koirala, has warned the party leadership not to delay the convention, noting that the NC has historically struggled to hold its conventions on time.

Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba also became a subject of discussion this week within Nepal’s political circles, especially within the NC. Her recent meeting with Indian Prime Minister Modi during her visit to India has led to the speculation within the NC that this meeting could signal India’s endorsement of Arzu as a future leader of the NC and potentially as a future prime minister of Nepal. Over the past few years, her husband and NC President, Deuba, has elevated her position within both the party and national politics.

This week CPN (Unified Socialist), a splinter group of the CPN-UML, elected 16 office bearers through a ballot. While Madhav Kumar Nepal was unanimously continued as party chair, there were disputes over the office bearers. Ram Kumari Jhakri, a youth leader prominent since the 2006 people’s movement, was defeated in the intra-party elections, leading to speculation that she might join the CPN-UML. Jhakri was one of the leaders who strongly opposed Oli’s dissolution of Parliament in 2020, and she worked closely with Nepal during the party split in 2021. There are also talks of a possible party unification between the Maoist Center and CPN (Unified Socialist), indicating that factionalism is a common trend in Nepal’s political landscape, even among fringe parties.

Another notable story this week was Prime Minister Oli facing questions from lawmakers in Parliament, including one related to America’s State Partnership Program (SPP), which has been pending for several years. Oli told Parliament that there has been no fresh proposal from the American side regarding the SPP. The previous government, led by Deuba, had informed the US that Nepal could no longer implement the SPP program. As usual, the Prime Minister Oli also faced questions about the details of the constitution amendment proposal.

A parliamentary committee investigating irregularities in cooperatives grilled Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) Chairperson Rabi Lamichhane this week. Lamichhane denied any involvement in the embezzlement of cooperative funds during his time working at a television channel.

Oman’s Foreign Minister Bin Hamood Albusidi also visited Nepal this week to discuss bilateral cooperation. The two sides discussed finalizing a proposed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) covering labor and manpower exchange, health cooperation, tourism, and diplomatic studies and training. 

That’s all for this week. Have a great weekend!

Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba’s recent meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during her visit to India has sparked significant discussion within Nepal’s political circles, particularly within her party, the Nepali Congress (NC). There are murmurs within the NC that this meeting could signal India’s endorsement of Arzu as a future leader of the party and potentially as a future prime minister of Nepal. Over the past few years, Arzu’s husband and NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba, has elevated her position within both the party and national politics.

Currently, she serves as a Central Working Committee member of the NC and a member of the House of Representatives. She played a crucial role in forming an alliance with the CPN-UML to establish the government, which led to her holding the powerful Foreign Ministry portfolio in the KP Sharma Oli-led government.

While she may not run for party president in the 2026 general convention, Deuba seems intent on securing her a significant position within the party. Deuba, who has already served as party president twice, is ineligible to run for a third term due to the party’s statute. Senior leaders such as Purna Bahadur Khadka, Gagan Kumar Thapa, and Shekhar Koirala are currently vying for the party presidency. It remains unclear who will succeed Deuba or emerge as the next leader from his faction. According to NC leaders, Deuba might retire after assuming the Prime Minister’s office again, as per an agreement with Oli, who is expected to hand over the premiership to Deuba in two years.

Some NC leaders speculate that Deuba may propose his spouse, Arzu, for the prime ministerial position due to his advanced age—he is already 80. Others, however, doubt that Arzu will become Prime Minister. Nonetheless, it is evident that Deuba is making every effort to elevate his spouse within the party. At nearly 60 years old, Arzu could remain active in party politics for at least the next two decades.

Deuba’s succession plan has been in motion for some time. He pushed for Arzu’s appointment as chairperson of the Agriculture, Cooperatives, and Natural Resources Committee of the House of Representatives last year, followed by her appointment as Foreign Minister a few months ago. These moves have significantly bolstered Arzu’s standing both within the NC and on the international stage. There was little opposition within the party to these appointments. Even Deuba’s rivals, Gagan Thapa and Shekhar Koirala, did not object. NC insiders believe that Arzu is likely to secure a prominent position at the party’s upcoming general convention, positioning her as Deuba’s political heir.

Arzu is not new to NC politics. Her political journey began in earnest after her marriage to Deuba in 1993, despite her mother, Pratibha Rana, being a leader in the Rastriya Prajatantra Party. Arzu became actively involved in politics after Deuba formed the breakaway faction, Nepali Congress (Democratic), in 2002. Although she has made significant strides within the party, her progress has been closely tied to her husband’s influence. To counter criticisms that Deuba was using his power to elevate her, Arzu contested an election from Kailali district but was defeated. In the 2022 election, she was elected under the proportional representation (PR) quota and is reportedly preparing to contest future elections from Kailali. If Deuba does not run in future elections, Arzu might even contest from Dadeldhura, where Deuba has won for the past three decades.

Arzu’s recent visit to India was a diplomatic success, earning her respect and recognition that few of her predecessors had achieved. Her meeting with Indian Prime Minister Modi, in particular, was seen as a significant accomplishment, enhancing her stature within Nepal's political landscape. This success, coupled with her increased visibility within the party, suggests that she is being groomed for a larger role.

There are clear signs within the NC that Deuba is positioning Arzu for future leadership. In a recent Central Committee meeting, NC leader Shashank Koirala noted how women seem to navigate political challenges more easily than men. Arzu’s growing acceptance within the party indicates that Deuba’s plan is progressing. Despite being relatively new to active politics and having faced opposition, she now enjoys substantial support. Her rank as the seventh in the cabinet hierarchy, ahead of several key figures, reflects the trust and confidence the party leadership has in her abilities.

However, the path to leadership will not be without challenges. Several factions within the NC, led by figures like Deputy Prime Minister Prakash Man Singh and senior leaders such as Shekhar Koirala, Bimalendra Nidhi, and Krishna Prasad Sitaula, may resist Deuba’s efforts to elevate Arzu. Influential general secretaries Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwo Prakash Sharma also command considerable support within the party. While Deuba’s close allies may not oppose Arzu’s rise, there is no guarantee that the rest of the party will follow suit, which could deepen existing divisions. With leaders like Dr Koirala and General Secretary Thapa already positioning themselves for party leadership, Arzu’s ascent is unlikely to be smooth.

Arzu’s success would mark a significant milestone for female leadership in Nepal, but it could also be perceived as a continuation of dynastic politics within the NC. Whether Arzu can secure party leadership will depend on her ability to navigate the party's complex dynamics, garner broad support, and prove that she can lead independently of her husband’s legacy. 

While her recent achievements suggest she is a formidable contender, it remains to be seen whether she can overcome the challenges ahead. Notably, Prime Minister Oli’s remark about wanting to see a female Prime Minister may indicate that even the CPN-UML chairman is aware of Deuba’s plans for a leadership transition.

CPN (Maoist Center) Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal has long been known for his contradictory statements and actions, a trait that dates back to the insurgency period. Despite entering peaceful politics in 2006, Dahal has struggled to shed this inconsistent personality, often saying one thing publicly while pursuing a different agenda behind the scenes. This pattern has continued even after his recent departure from power, as he has oscillated between claiming to avoid power and making moves to re-enter government.

Dahal’s recent actions reflect his frustration with the collapse of his government and his determination to regain power. After losing the premiership, Dahal initially declared that he would not seek to become prime minister again during the current parliamentary term, which lasts until 2027. However, it is evident that his primary focus has been to dismantle the coalition between the CPN-UML and the Nepali Congress (NC) and position himself for a return to leadership. 

His efforts to create friction within the ruling coalition are apparent in his recent remarks, where he suggested that the meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba might have unsettled UML Chairperson and Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli. Dahal also hinted that the current coalition, formed between two ideologically different parties, would not last long.

During a special session in Parliament on Tuesday, Dahal accused the government of arrogance and heading in the wrong direction. He criticized the government for serving vested interest groups and mafias instead of the people. 

“I was in favor of giving the government all the benefits of doubt during the honeymoon period. I wanted the first debate on the government to take place in the people's court,” he said. “However, after observing the government’s intentions and direction for over 40 days, I have come to the conclusion that the government is heading towards arrogance and in the wrong direction. It is moving towards the madness of numbers and the misuse of power. It is serving vested interest groups, and even more so, the mafias, rather than the people.”

Dahal also expressed regret for breaking the alliance with the NC last March and stated that his party would not remain a passive witness to the government’s misdeeds. Dahal warned that his party would expose and resist the government’s actions in Parliament, reaffirming their commitment to standing against what they perceive as the government’s misuse of power.  

“Many might wonder how such a small opposition can warn and control a two-thirds majority government. Numerically, they may have two-thirds, but the foundation of the government is based on fear, not trust. The way this government was formed, it was exposed to the people right from the beginning and continues to be exposed,” Dahal said. “The people know whose government this is and why it was formed. The government itself is providing the evidence. So, I urge both well-wishers and opponents not to worry about our numbers. To face the people and the opposition, this government needs honesty, which it lacks.”

The Maois chair also accused the current government of trying to suppress the fake Bhutanese refugee scandal and protect other criminals and tarnishing Nepal’s legal, moral, political, and social reputation internationally. 

“By transferring and investigating the capable and courageous police officers who were investigating such a shameful and disgraceful event, what message are you sending to the rest of the world? With the international community watching so closely, where will this shamelessness lead the country’s reputation?” he said.

Dahal also challenged the leaders of both UML and NC, stating that they should not come to him trying to placate him should this alliance face any challenge. 

Despite his public statements of reluctance to re-enter government, Dahal’s actions suggest otherwise. He has already begun fostering alliances with fringe communist parties, positioning himself for future political maneuvering. 

Within the Maoist Center, there is growing skepticism about Dahal’s commitment to staying out of power. Party members have expressed concerns that the party has lost touch with the people due to its continued focus on securing government positions for a select few leaders. During internal discussions, leaders like Deepak Koirala and Suman Devkota emphasized the need for the party to reconnect with the people and move away from its government-centric approach.

UML General Secretary Shankar Pokharel noted recently that Dahal still harbors hopes of rejoining the government within the next six months. Pokharel suggested that Dahal’s fixation on power could hinder efforts to address pressing national issues, including constitutional amendments. 

Despite the challenges, the NC-UML coalition remains stable, with NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba committed to continuing the alliance. However, the government’s failure to deliver on its promises could lead to dissatisfaction within the NC, though this is unlikely to threaten the coalition as long as Deuba supports it.

In the meantime, Dahal’s rhetoric in Parliament and his behind-the-scenes maneuvers reflect a leader torn between his party’s principles and his desire for power. While he warns the government of impending resistance, his actions indicate a readiness to seize any opportunity to regain political influence, even if it means contradicting his public statements. 

This week, Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba made an official visit to India at the invitation of Indian Minister for External Affairs S Jaishankar. While her discussions with Jaishankar focused on bilateral issues, her meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi garnered the most attention. It is rare for Nepali foreign ministers to meet Modi during their visits to New Delhi, and those who do often gain significant political traction back home.

In Nepal, Rana’s meeting with Modi has sparked various interpretations. Some view it as a sign of the high priority India places on its relationship with Nepal. Others suggest that recent developments in Bangladesh may have prompted New Delhi to engage more closely with its neighbors. CPN (Maoist Center) Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal quickly added to the speculation, claiming that Rana’s meeting with Modi might have unsettled Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli. Dahal hinted that India’s treatment of Rana as an equal to the prime minister might have been a calculated move, especially as Oli awaits an invitation to visit New Delhi. 

There is now speculation about a potential visit by Modi to Nepal, which would reverse the traditional pattern of Nepali prime ministers visiting India first. People are curious whether India has formally invited Oli to India.

Another important news this week concerned the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC). It has been a year since MCC came into effect in Nepal. This week, the Millennium Challenge Account Nepal (MCA-Nepal) shared an update on the progress made over the past year. MCA-Nepal announced that it has completed the procurement for some contracts and made significant strides in preparing sites for contractors. However, doubts remain about whether the two MCC projects—a transmission line and a road upgrade—will be completed within the five-year timeline, given that four years now remain. Although political opposition to the MCC has waned, frequent changes in government and bureaucratic reshuffling continue to pose challenges. The successful implementation of the MCC is a priority for the US, particularly given opposition from communist parties and China.

Talking about the growing American interest in Nepal, US Deputy Secretary of State for Management and Resources Richard R Verma visited Nepal this week. During his visit, he met with top political leaders and made significant announcements, including US support for the Nepali Army. Foreign Minister Rana, via a post on X, announced that the US would provide Nepal with two Skytrucks and two additional Bell helicopters to support disaster management efforts.

There was also a welcoming development for young content creators and small business owners this week, as the government made an announcement to lift the ban on TikTok, which was imposed a year ago. Following directives from Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, the Ministry of Communications has begun preparations for the ban’s removal. Last year, the government, led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal, banned TikTok citing concerns about social cohesion. After the ban, TikTok representatives lobbied intensively, promising to remove objectionable content. They argued that the government banned the app without providing any specific reasons, noting that Nepal is one of TikTok’s largest markets in South Asia. At the time, the ban had broad political support despite concerns about free speech.

Now onto the ongoing internal conflict inside CPN (Maoist Center). It appears that Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal and senior leader Janardhan Sharma have reconciled following a tense exchange at the party meeting. Sharma is the first leader since Mohan Baidya and Baburam Bhattarai (2006-2015) to openly challenge Dahal’s leadership. He made two strong points: Dahal should pass the party leadership to younger leaders, and Dahal used state agencies to punish Sharma and others when in power. Currently, three leaders—Sharma, Barsha Man Pun, and Narayan Kaji Shrestha—are vying to succeed Dahal as party chair. However, Dahal is reluctant to relinquish power and is instead working to strengthen the party by forming alliances with fringe Maoist factions and the CPN (Unified Socialist) led by Madhav Kumar Nepal. Dahal is reportedly trying to convince Nepal to support party unification by offering him the position of prime minister.

This week, the federal parliament passed a bill to amend some controversial clauses in the transitional justice Act. While major political parties support the bill, some human rights organizations and conflict victims have criticized it, arguing that it does not meet international standards. This opposition could undermine the effectiveness of the two transitional justice bodies, as has happened in the past. On a positive note, most major countries, except India, have welcomed the passage of the bill, which will be crucial for the success of transitional justice mechanisms. Attention is now focused on upcoming appointments to the transitional justice bodies.

Minister for Education, Science, and Technology Bidya Bhattarai revealed this week that officials at the Tribhuvan University (TU) have been receiving threats. In a social media post, she requested that the Ministry of Home Affairs provide security for the officials and address the growing problem of hooliganism in educational institutions. She emphasized that turning educational institutions into arenas for political conflict is a troubling trend that political parties must take seriously.

In another story this week, the Ministry of Health and Population raised concerns about the risk of monkeypox infection, which is spreading rapidly in Asia. Ministry Spokesperson Dr Prakash Budhathoki warned that with the infection spreading in neighboring India, Nepal is also vulnerable. It’s worth noting that a 60-year-old foreign woman was diagnosed with the virus in Nepal last year.

Also this week, the news about the devastating flood caused by a glacial lake outburst at a village in the Everest region raised alarms, particularly among climate scientists and environmentalists. Although no casualties were reported in the incident, the scale of the flood was huge. The flood, which tore through the village of Thame, underscores the growing risk posed by glacial lake outbursts in Nepal. According to a 2020 study by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), there are around 2,070 glacial lakes in Nepal, many of which are at risk of bursting. Government authorities need to address this issue urgently.

That’s all for this week. Have a great weekend!

This week, one of the significant achievements by our major political parties was the passage of the bill to amend the Enforced Disappearances Enquiry, Truth and Reconciliation Commission Act. The amendment had been stalled since 2015 due to disagreements among the major parties, particularly on issues related to serious human rights violations during the conflict era. With this agreement, it is expected that the two transitional bodies—the Truth and Reconciliation Commission and the Commission for the Investigation of Enforced Disappearances—will now function effectively, allowing them to investigate around 65,000 complaints filed by conflict victims.

The bill’s passage has been cautiously welcomed by both the international community and conflict victims, two key stakeholders in the transitional justice process. They are hopeful that the commissions will operate independently, consult with conflict victims, and function effectively. Previously, due to a lack of cooperation from both the international community and conflict victims, the commissions struggled to work effectively. Now, attention is focused on the government’s approach to appointments in these commissions and any potential reservations from the Supreme Court and international community. It is a positive sign that the United Nations, the US, the European Union, and other countries have cautiously welcomed this new development, which could create a favorable environment for the government to address remaining issues. However, there is still a risk that conflict victims may not support the appointments to the commissions. Additionally, it could take 4-5 years to complete investigations into all cases.

Another notable story this week was the signs of potential dispute within the CPN (Maoist Center) during the party’s standing committee meeting. Party’s Deputy General Secretary Janardhan Sharma surprised many by challenging Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, urging him to step down and hand over leadership to the younger generation. Some leaders, including Dev Gurung, defended Dahal, who has led the party for nearly four decades and has shown no signs of stepping back from active politics. Sharma went so far as to accuse the Dahal of using the Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) to target him after he criticized the party. Former Speaker Onsari Gharti also suggested that Dahal may have attempted to implicate her and Barsha Man Pun in a gold smuggling investigation.

This situation highlights the growing mistrust between Dahal and other party leaders. If these accusations are true, they should be a wake-up call for those outside the party as well, as the use of state mechanisms to silence both intra-party and inter-party rivals is a troubling trend in Nepali politics. Former Deputy Prime Minister Rabi Lamichhane had faced similar criticisms. The CIAA, a constitutional body meant to operate independently, is now under severe scrutiny. It is time for the CIAA to demonstrate to the public that it does not function under the influence of the government.

Moving on to the intra-party politics within the ruling Nepali Congress, diverging opinions on potential electoral alliances have further complicated matters within the party. NC General Secretary duo Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma have long been advocating for a clear policy that the party should not engage in any pre-poll alliances. The same issue surfaced during the party’s meeting this week, where NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba appeared reluctant to give in to the demand of the two general secretaries. Despite being the largest party, the NC faces significant challenges in contesting elections alone, especially if the communist parties remain united. Understandably, Deuba is opposed to the idea of officially eschewing future electoral alliances.

The long-standing power struggle has also resurfaced inside the NC. For quite some time, factions led by party President Deuba, senior leader Shekhar Koirala, and General Secretary Thapa have been at odds. With Deuba ineligible to seek another term as party president, both Thapa and Koirala are vying for leadership. At the same time, Thapa and Koirala are also determined to prevent Deuba from becoming prime minister again, fearing he may use state power to influence the party convention in favor of his preferred successor.

In another story, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri paid a two-day official visit to Nepal this week. His arrival represents a pivotal moment for both India and Nepal, offering a chance to align their strategic priorities and deepen mutual understanding. A seasoned diplomat with a distinguished reputation as a China specialist, Misri was appointed foreign secretary last month. In line with tradition, his inaugural diplomatic mission took him to neighboring countries, with Nepal being a significant stop.  

His visit followed the recent establishment of a new government in Nepal, led by CPN-UML Chairperson KP Sharma Oli, in coalition with the NC. During his Kathmandu stay, Misri engaged in comprehensive consultations with Nepali leaders, focusing on political and developmental issues of shared concern. About his visit, India’s Ministry of External Affairs said: “Nepal is a priority partner of India under its Neighborhood First Policy. The Foreign Secretary’s visit continued the tradition of regular high-level exchanges between the two countries and helped in advancing our bilateral ties further.”

That’s all for this week. Happy weekend!