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The current coalition government led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal may not collapse in the near future, though Prime Minister Dahal himself seems less certain. Political analysts and leaders agree that as long as the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML, the first and second largest parties respectively, do not join forces to form a new government, Dahal will continue to exploit the situation. However, the complexity of Nepal’s political parties makes it challenging for analysts to make definitive predictions. Few anticipated that Dahal would expel the Nepali Congress from the government on March 4 and ally with his rival, KP Sharma Oli of UML. 

For over a year, Dahal has remained in power somehow, securing the vote of confidence three times, highlighting his government’s fragility. Since the beginning, even Dahal has appeared uncertain about the government’s longevity. He often tells his colleagues that despite predictions he wouldn't last a couple of months, he has managed to stay in power for over a year. His remarks in public also indicate his doubts about the government's survival. There are several factors that are feeding Dahal’s doubt, including the possibility that coalition partners, mainly CPN (Unified Socialist), could withdraw support anytime. 

This uncertainty has also made Dahal desperate to cling on to power. To bolster his position, Dahal facilitated a split in the Janata Samajbadi Party led by Upendra Yadav, creating a new party of seven lawmakers who now support his government. Dahal was worried after reports that Yadav was planning to pull out its support from the coalition and join forces with Congress, the main opposition, in a bid to form a new government.    

Dahal’s CPN (Maoist Center) has just 32 seats in the House of Representatives, which makes it a distant third largest party after the UML and NC. Yet, Dahal managed to become prime minister after the 2022 general elections, which took much negotiations, political maneuverings, and making and breaking of alliances.    

Dahal’s guile and cunning has kept him at the helm so far, but he has yet to (and he may never) shake off the specter of one of the coalition partners turning against him, reducing his government into a minority status.  

With Yadav’s Janata Samajbadi Party out of the picture, Prime Minister Dahal is now concerned that CPN (Unified Socialist) Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal might withdraw support to the coalition due to his growing closeness with Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba. While this might not immediately topple the government, it would definitely force Dahal to reaffirm his majority, further weakening his political standing. Additionally, Rastriya Swatantra Party Chair Rabi Lamichhane, also the minister for home affairs, faces the allegation of embezzling cooperative funds, and Dahal fears a court order might force Lamichhane to resign, prompting RSP to leave the government.

Political parties have finally agreed to form a parliamentary committee to probe the misuse of funds by multiple cooperatives across the country. Had Lamichhane’s name been included in the probe committee’s terms of reference, he might have resigned. But to prevent this, Prime Minister Dahal successfully convinced NC President Deuba to adopt a more flexible stance. It was NC that first raised the demand for a parliamentary panel to probe the financial scandals in various cooperatives, including the one linked with Home Minister Lamichhane.  

Dahal’s visit to Deuba’s residence before the budget session suggests a possible agreement between the two leaders. After forming a new  ruling coalition in March by breaking the alliance with the Congress, Dahal feels external forces might attempt to remove him from power. This explains his attempt at appeasing India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, which is likely to get a historic third term as several exit polls indicate.

After parting ways with the NC, Dahal has faced increasing difficulties. Relegated to the opposition bench, the NC has been creating obstacles in the Parliament and has even initiated street protests, aiming to topple the government. There are also reports about the NC holding back-channel negotiations with the UML to form a new coalition, the one that is stable and strong.   

Within the UML, opinions are divided: some leaders believe a coalition with NC would ensure stability, while others argue that as key electoral competitors, the two parties should not ally. Nonetheless, it won’t be surprising if they come together. Some NC leaders want to join the government, fearing that the current home administration under Lamichhane might target them in corruption scandals.

At this juncture, it is difficult to gauge Oli's intentions. The UML leader has been saying that the internal and external environment is not conducive for him to become prime minister, which is why he is currently supporting Dahal and focusing on strengthening his party. 

Oli aims to make UML the largest party by inducting lawmakers from fringe parties. But at the same time he has not completely ruled out the possibility of forming an alliance with the Congress. Some leaders say Oli’s preferred option is to ally with the Maoists and ultimately seek to merge the two parties, with UML leaders in dominant positions. Oli might even try to secure the position of president after the 2027 elections, while his current targets remain NC and RSP, seeing the former as a key electoral competitor and the latter as a formidable threat to all major parties. 

With both ruling and opposition parties expending significant energy either to maintain or disrupt the coalition, governance, economy, and development are taking a hit.

The US Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) was a hotly debated topic in political and diplomatic circles from 2019 to 2022, though discussions have subsided somewhat since then. In Nepal, discourse on the IPS has been dominated by its security and strategic components, with support for this initiative often viewed as joining the US-led military alliance.

In a veiled reference to IPS, Nepali leaders often say that Nepal cannot and should not join any military alliances as it goes against the country’s long-standing commitment to the non-alignment policy. Bolstering Indo-Pacific security is a key part of the IPS which faced stiff opposition in Nepal after the country was mentioned in the 2019 Indo-Pacific Strategy Report by the US Department of Defense.

Additionally, some US documents claimed that Nepal had joined the State Partnership Program (SPP), prompting Nepal to reportedly request for removal from the SPP. Some SPP documents, however, still include Nepal. Nepali leaders also briefly put off the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) project, stating that it was part of the IPS. Discussions on the IPS in Nepal are framed around these two issues, but the strategy encompasses much more.

For the US and international strategic community, the 2022 Indo-Pacific Strategy unveiled by the Biden administration serves as the guiding document on IPS and its execution. The Trump administration had placed the military component as the central pillar of the strategy which landed it in controversy. So, the Biden administration introduced a new Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS), which has now entered its third year of implementation. US officials are currently occupied with compiling progress reports on a country-by-country basis. Contrary to the Trump administration’s confrontational approach toward China, the Biden administration’s IPS adopts a different stance. It consists of five pillars: promoting a free and open Indo-Pacific, fostering connections within and beyond the region, driving Indo-Pacific prosperity, enhancing Indo-Pacific security, and building regional resilience to 21st-century transnational threats.  Biden’s IPS focuses more on economic cooperation, capacity building of regional partners, and the view that US resources alone are insufficient. 

A frequently asked question in Nepal is whether the country is already a part of the IPS. This is a tricky question and the answer can be both yes and no. Those who view the IPS solely through the prism of security and military cooperation say Nepal is not involved. However, considering all components of the strategy and its implementation, Nepal can be seen as a part of the IPS. US officials and experts have often clarified that the IPS is an overarching framework outlining how the US, as a superpower, envisions the Indo-Pacific region. Nepal, being the landlocked country situated between India and China, is a high priority in the region. US officials have stated in documents that ‘Nepal can play a vital role in the Indo-Pacific region’ and that Nepal is ‘a valued partner in the Indo-Pacific’.

The broader context suggests Nepal is indeed a high priority for the US within its overarching Indo-Pacific policy. In recent years, the US has stepped up diplomatic engagements with Nepal through high-level visits. These visits have focused on increasing US development assistance to Nepal, attracting private investment, promoting democracy and human rights, curbing corruption, and boosting collaboration across sectors. At the same time, the IMF, World Bank and other financial institutions have also intensified their engagements with Nepal. The MCC compact is a case in point.

Looking at how the IPS is being implemented in Nepal through various US agencies like USAID, there are investments “to strengthen democratic institutions for good governance and human rights; foster sustainable, inclusive, transparent economic growth; and improve resilience to health and climate threats” which is the thrust of IPS.

Let’s consider some specific cases now. The first pillar of the IPS is a free and open Indo-Pacific. Targeting the first pillar, the US has been supporting Nepal across domains like governance, democratic values, security and stability. This includes working with Nepal’s media, civil society and key institutions to build capacity, as well as security cooperation with Nepali forces on disaster preparedness, humanitarian assistance, border security, and more.

US agencies are actively engaged in Nepal across other pillars of the IPS. The US closely coordinates with allies and partners, recognizing its resources alone are insufficient for the region's challenges. Hence, allies like Japan, South Korea, India, Australia, and the UK are also expanding their presence and investments aligned with their own Indo-Pacific outlooks.

While the IPS has many facets, discussions and understanding in Nepal have been narrow. Obviously, there are challenges in dealing with the strategic initiatives, but time has come to make an understanding and position about what IPS means to Nepal. In the lack of an official government position, politicians and bureaucrats face difficulties addressing IPS-related issues and projects, particularly with the US.

As Nepal desperately seeks investment across sectors, the US and its partners are exploring opportunities, alongside emerging economies eyeing Nepal. Rather than shying away or viewing the IPS solely as a military strategy, there is a need for open dialogue to build an accurate understanding. The IPS involves US engagement with Nepal on clean energy, climate change, disaster preparedness and facilitating regional power trading agreements. On energy cooperation, the US is working closely with south Asian countries including India, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal. The US also played a vital role in facilitating a regional power trading agreement in South Asia. Regarding climate change, the US partners with various organizations in Nepal, particularly targeting youth engagement—an area where Nepal can greatly benefit as it already faces impacts from climate-induced disasters. Another associated issue is preparedness for disaster response and relief operations. 

There is a need to build an understanding of the IPS to provide clear thoughts and ideas on how to address these challenges. Better comprehension of the multifaceted IPS can offer Nepal significant benefits. However, there are inherent risks if Nepal fails to develop a uniform and consensus-based position on it.

In the Lowy Institute's Asia Power Index 2023, 15 countries, including Japan, Russia, Australia and South Korea, are classified as middle powers, while Nepal along with nine other countries are categorized as 'minor powers.' The foreign policy discourse in Kathmandu is dominated by the three major powers—India, China, and the United States. There is a lack of deliberation about Nepal's engagement with these middle powers which have been our long-standing development partners. 

Unlike the major powers, middle powers seemingly have fewer strategic interests in Nepal, making it easier to attract more investment and development assistance from them. Of late, these countries have shown a greater interest in engaging with Nepal across multiple areas. It is, therefore, time to explore how Nepal can maximize benefits from them. 

Many middle powers are increasing their partnership with Nepal, and they do not want to be seen as aligning with major powers, at least publicly. However, there is a convergence between the US and other middle powers on issues like democracy, human rights, and, more importantly, containing China's influence in the Indo-Pacific region. These middle powers often work through loose networks on several issues, and the US is working to empower their capacity while seeking their support to counter China.

In Nepal, these middle powers are trying to distance themselves from geopolitical ambitions but they are also concerned about Nepal’s position on key regional and international issues. 

For instance, during Japanese Foreign Minister Kamikawa Yoko's recent visit to South Asia, including Nepal and Sri Lanka, discussions focused on global and regional issues like the situation in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine war, and other South Asian regional matters.

Over the past few years, Japan has been investing in infrastructure development in South Asia in close collaboration with India. Its main priority is enhancing connectivity between South Asia and Southeast Asia, and for this purpose, Japan is investing in infrastructure in Northeast India. In this context, Japan considers Nepal an important position and is already investing in Nepal's infrastructure development. Japan is also concerned about the growing Chinese loans in South Asian countries, which could be a reason for the Japanese foreign minister’s visit to Nepal and Sri Lanka. Kamikawa conveyed the message that Japan is ready to step up its cooperation with Nepal, and to work closely with South Asian countries on regional and global issues.

The United Kingdom is also one of Nepal's oldest friends. The two countries established diplomatic ties in 1816. The Treaty of Friendship that the two countries signed in 1923 further formalized bilateral relations and helped Nepal claim UN membership, and reiterate its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity. The UK has consistently been one of Nepal's top development partners. Still, there is a perception in Nepal that the UK has maintained a low profile or has been quieter about its diplomatic engagement over the past decade.

Recently, the UK has shown a greater interest in Nepal, with increased grants and a keenness to bring foreign direct investment (FDI) to the country. In February 2023, UK Minister of State (Development and Africa) Andrew Mitchell launched a new £400m UK-Nepal development portfolio, aimed at mobilizing vital private sector funding for development and creating 13,500 jobs in Nepal.

Let’s talk about South Korea now. Seoul is gradually enhancing its cooperation and engagement with Nepal. Last year, South Korea sent President Yoon Suk-Yeol's special envoy Jang Sung Min to Nepal for discussions on bilateral and other issues. The two countries are currently discussing a wide range of bilateral issues, and high-level visits are on the agenda. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is preparing for an official visit to South Korea soon.

The trade volume between South Korea and Nepal has significantly increased from $100,000 in 1970 to $37m in 2023. Between 1987 and 2022, South Korea provided Nepal with $282.4m in Official Development Assistance (ODA) in areas like health, water, sanitation, education, rural development and energy. The private sector of South Korea has also shown interest in investing in various sectors in Nepal. This week, South Korea’s Ambassador to Nepal Park Tae-Young said they are willing to step up cooperation with Nepal. 

All these three countries—Japan, the UK and South Korea—have strong ties with the US and are often taken as junior partners of the superpower. The Indo-Pacific outlook unveiled by these countries are very similar in content to the US’ Indo-Pacific Strategy. All of these countries have stepped up strategic partnerships with India, which has a huge influence in Nepal. Along with these, other countries like Australia and France are also increasing their engagement with Nepal. Europe’s major power Germany is also keen to invest more in Nepal. 

While Nepal is preoccupied with dealing with the three major powers, the time has come to comprehensively engage with these middle powers to bridge the investment gap that the country is currently facing. These countries have clearly shown their interest in investing in Nepal if a conducive investment climate is created. It is easier to deal with these powers because they are publicly stating that their support for Nepal is guided by deep people-to-people relations and geopolitical factors do not prominently figure into their engagement. In a recent interaction, a diplomat said: Our support in Nepal is guided by a long history of people-to-people connections and we do not have much geopolitical interests in Nepal, although there is a lot of geopolitics in Nepal.

One immediate opportunity is the high chance of attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). After the 2024 Nepal Investment Summit, these middle powers are encouraged by the government's amendments to laws as demanded by international investors and the all-party consensus on these issues. If some of their remaining issues are resolved, Nepal can attract more investment. For instance, during the investment summit, the UK conveyed that many UK investors are ready to invest in Nepal if issues related to tax and the safe repatriation of profits are eased.

Therefore, the government, think tanks and civil society should pay greater attention to stepping up engagement with these middle powers, along with the major powers vying for influence in Kathmandu. It is time for Nepal to seize this opportunity and tap into the potential of these middle powers for its development.

Earlier this week, on May 5, the Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal, led by Upendra Yadav, underwent a sudden split. Out of its 12 lawmakers in the House of Representatives, seven members led by Ashok Rai filed an application with the Election Commission seeking the registration of a new party. The following day, despite legal ambiguity, the election body, perceived to be influenced by parties in power, registered the new party, Janata Samajbadi Party and issued a certificate of political party to the Rai-led panel.

Yadav, also the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Health, was in the US when the split occurred. Upon hearing the news, he cut short his trip and returned to Nepal, but there was little he could do to persuade the dissident leaders to undo their action. What might have caused the split within Samajbadi party? There's a prevalent belief among top politicians that Yadav and Madhav Kumar Nepal, chair of CPN (Unified Socialist), were plotting to withdraw support from the current coalition government simultaneously, potentially to topple it.

Media reports suggest that Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal and CPN-UML Chair KP Sharma Oli got wind of this plan and orchestrated the split to salvage the coalition. Rai and his supporters publicly endorsed this narrative, claiming they felt compelled to part ways with the mother party due to Yadav's alleged intention to withdraw support from the current coalition. Days after the party split, Prime Minister Dahal on Thursday stated his determination to maintain the coalition by any means necessary. 

Following Samajbadi’s split, there were rumors that senior Unified Socialist leader Jhala Nath Khanal may also split the party if its chairman, Nepal, decides to withdraw from the Dahal-led government. However, Khanal has refuted the rumors. Upon his return from the US, Yadav met with Prime Minister Dahal to assert his commitment to the coalition and clarify any misinformation. Despite the split, Yadav expressed his intention to remain in the government, though much depends on the prime minister, who appears to favor the Rai-led faction for their role in preserving the coalition. Even if Yadav walks out of the government, Dahal will technically have majority support in the Parliament to continue his government.

The Unified Socialist has also publicly declared its intent to stay in the government, despite its Chairman Nepal voicing doubts about this coalition’s longevity. While reports suggest that the main opposition, Nepali Congress, was in discussions with Nepal of Unified Socialist and Yadav of Samajbadi Party about forming a new coalition, there were reportedly no significant talks between NC and Yadav.

A senior NC leader indicated readiness to accept Nepal as prime minister if the coalition collapses, but denied willingness to support Yadav for the position. Meanwhile, Yadav's camp has expressed willingness to form a new coalition only if offered the prime ministerial position. The NC itself is a divided house when it comes to forming a coalition with the Samajbadi and Unified Socialist. While leaders close to Deuba want to form a new coalition sans UML, its senior leader Shekhar Koirala is in talks with the UML to forge a coalition between the two largest parties. 

However, according to some UML leaders, the party chair, Oli, is in no rush to break the current coalition. They say he is aiming for a long game with the sole purpose of making the UML the largest party through the general elections of 2027. It appears Oli is in no hurry to become prime minister.   With the Samajbadi party split in two, it is now up to Prime Minister Dahal to decide whether to keep both Yadav and Rai factions in the coalition. He is already under pressure from the Rai camp to throw out the Yadav faction. Rai has clearly stated that the prime minister should choose between him and Yadav.

The events that unfolded over the past few days reveal that the split within JSP was not solely driven by coalition issues; intra-party conflicts also played a significant role. Before leaving for the US, Yadav issued an intra-party circular outlining the formation of an election committee for the upcoming general convention. Rai claimed Yadav favored his supporters as convention representatives, sidelining other senior party members. Yadav was also accused of attempting to transform the party into a regional entity centered on Madhes, despite its national scope. Rai acknowledged that aside from coalition concerns, intra-party disputes fueled their rebellion against Yadav.  Despite multiple splits over the years, Yadav continues to retain leadership of the party due to his strong base in Madhes. He hopes to do the same this time as well. 

Last week, the Supreme Court (SC) ordered the Nepal government to limit the number of climbing permits for Mt. Everest and other peaks. The court order comes amid the concerns that increasing human activities in the mountains is causing pollution and other harms, coupled with adverse impact of climate change. However, stakeholders say the directives made by SC are not feasible to implement, though it may have been issued with a good intention but it affects the tourism industry.

Nima Nuru Sherpa, president of Nepal Mountaineering Association, says though he honors SC order it was issued without proper study of the issue. “More than one thousand trekking industries are operating in Nepal for the same purpose and the flow and number of mountaineers are fixed only two-three months before the climbing season, so it is not possible to pick certain numbers for the climbing,” he says. 

In 2020, Nepal Army had also suggested to the Nepal government to limit the number of climbers before the beginning of the climbing season, which was met with criticism from tourism and mountaineering agencies. Multiple people who spoke with ApEx contend that the SC issued the order without the basic knowledge about the mountaineering industry.  If limitation is imposed, Sherpa says it would severely impact Nepal’s tourism industry.  Lawyer Deepak Bikram Mishra, who had filed a petition urging permits to be curtained, recently told AFP that the court had responded to public concerns about Nepal’s mountains and its environment.

The number of people climbing Everest and other peaks is increasing every year.  In 2019, there was a massive traffic jam on Everest, resulting in at least nine deaths. Since then, there has been discussion about limiting the number of climbers to the world’s highest peak. The government also formed a high-level panel to suggest ways to regulate mountain expeditions. But notably, the panel did not suggest limiting the numbers of climbers. Instead, it recommended measures such as employing experts for rope-fixing tasks, building an effective climate prediction system, fixing dates for climbing, and not allowing more than 150 climbers in a day. The panel also suggested effective coordination among key government agencies. In 2023, altogether 478 permits were issued to climb Everest; 287 people made successful ascent. For this spring, the Department of Tourism has issued over 400 permits. It also issued climbing permits for more than 30 other mountains. 

Along with limiting the permits, the joint bench of justices Sapana Pradhan Malla and Sushma Lalita Mathema has ruled the government to ban the use of helicopters in the areas, except for emergency rescue. The court has directed expedition teams to maintain the transparency of the items they plan to take with them and they should be recorded at the departure point. The court has also expressed concerns about the growing impact of climate change in Nepal’s mountainous areas.

Stating that climate-induced disasters are affecting the tourists, local residents and minority groups, the court has also directed the government to undertake special care and protective measures in response to the impacts of climate change on mountains and glaciers.  There are growing concerns about the growing pollution in the mountainous region, and mainly in the Everest base camp. The government and various non-governmental organizations are engaged in waste management at the base camp, but the efforts so far have not been effective. 

On this issue, the SC has said that there is a need for proper waste management in mountainous regions to prevent adverse effects on the environment and human health. The court has directed the government to enhance coordination between government and non-governmental agencies engaged in sanitation and to ensure the effective implementation of existing laws. It has instructed the government and stakeholders concerned to coordinate garbage and corpse management and to establish a monitoring team of experts.

In February this year, Khumbu Pasang Lhamu Rural Municipality enacted Base Camp Management Procedures 2024 to manage the human activities in the foothills of various mountains in the region, including Mt. Everest. As per the new regulations, climbers are required to carry a poop bag or biodegradable bag to manage and bring back their waste from higher altitudes of the mountains.

Migma Tshering Sherpa, chairperson of the rural municipality, says they have implemented some measures that aim to control the pollution, waste and other aspects in the mountain.  “We are coordinating with the provincial and central government in order to implement the provisions mentioned in the procedures and we hope that situation will improve.”  Sherpa, however, doubts whether the order issued by the Supreme Court can be implemented.  According to a study conducted by the government, there are over 1310 mountains eligible for climbing, out of them only 414 have been opened for commercial mountaineering expeditions.

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Year wise permits 

During Japanese Foreign Minister Kamikawa Yoko’s one-day Nepal visit on Sunday, the two sides discussed pressing global and regional issues.

According to Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japanese foreign minister and Nepal’s foreign minister Narayan Kaji Shrestha held a candid exchange of views on regional affairs, including the situation in East Asia and South Asia, and concurred on maintaining close communication between the two countries.

The two ministers also held a candid exchange of views on global issues, including strengthening of the functions of the UN, including the Security Council reform, the rule of law, and nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation, the Japanese ministry stated in a press release.  Minister Yoko stated that the concept of Women, Peace and Security (WPS) is becoming ever more important amidst increasing uncertainty in the international community, and that Japan would like to further strengthen cooperation in the area of WPS in the future. In response, Minister Shrestha said Nepal would like to maintain cooperation on global issues, including WPS. 

Minister Yoko also conveyed the message to Nepali leaders that Japan would like to work together for the development of Nepal and for peace, stability and prosperity in the region through practical cooperation.

Enhancing people-to-people relationships was another issue that two sides discussed during the visit. Currently, over 170,000 Nepalis, including many exchange students, are living in Japan. The issue of sending more Nepali workers to Japan also figured in the meeting.

In the meeting with PM, Minister Kamikawa also stated that Nepal's sustainable development contributes to the stability of the region and that Japan would continue to cooperate in Nepal’s efforts for sustainable development through development cooperation such as the Nagdhunga Tunnel Construction Project. 

The two ministers concurred on cooperating to further promote mutual understanding and friendly bilateral relations through the establishment of a preparatory committee in both countries to consider initiatives befitting the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations in 2026, as well as the “Human Resources Development Scholarship Program” (JDS), a grant aid program for training young administrative officials. The two ministers also concurred on promoting people-to-people exchanges through Specified Skilled Workers and tourism.

National politics is becoming increasingly unpredictable, with doubts arising about the stability of the five-party coalition government. A significant blow came with the Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal experiencing a split, as seven lawmakers and 30 central committee members formed a new party under Ashok Rai.

The Election Commission on Monday issued a certificate of political party to the Rai faction of JSP as per the Political Party Act. However, there are no clear legal provisions regarding the party formation process in case an existing party splits. 

In 2021, the government led by the Nepali Congress had issued an ordinance to amend the Act to ease the split of political parties. Based on that ordinance Madhav Kumar Nepal and Mahantha Thakur formed new parties, the CPN (Unified Socialist) and the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party, after splitting from the UML and JSP, respectively. The ordinance has since been repealed. 

The establishment faction of the JSP led by Upendra Yadav has argued that since the ordinance is no longer in effect, the new party under Rai cannot be legitimate.

Meanwhile, those lawmakers who have broken away from JSP claim that their actions were prompted by the intention to preserve the current coalition, as party Chairman Yadav, also the deputy prime minister and health minister, was considering withdrawing support from the government to form a new one. 

The latest development signifies the beginning of further rifts within both large and small parties, either to maintain or challenge the current government. The situation echoes the turbulence of the early 1990s, characterized by party splits, political maneuvering, and the manipulation of lawmakers. 

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal and his primary coalition partner KP Sharma Oli of CPN-UML are focused on retaining power or engineering government changes. 

JSP leaders say Prime Minister Dahal and CPN-UML KP Sharma Oli played significant roles in orchestrating the split to prevent the current coalition from slipping into a minority position in Parliament. Even if Yadav were to withdraw support, the current coalition is likely to retain a comfortable majority, with the assurance of the Rai-led JSP to support the Dahal-led government.

Another coalition partner, CPN (Unified Socialist), has also expressed discontent with the current arrangement, with its Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal publicly stating concerns about the government's stability. His recent remarks about certain leaders' reluctance to see him as prime minister hint at underlying tensions within this coalition. Nepal's dissatisfaction with provincial-level governance and appointments also suggests a deeper rift within the coalition.  

With a split in JSP, the Unified Socialist faces the challenge of keeping the party intact. There are suspicions that to prevent the current coalition from slipping into minority, Dahal and Oli could try to divide the Unified Socialist as well. 

The initial formation of the current coalition on March 4 saw Prime Minister Dahal sever ties with the NC in favor of incorporating UML and RSP. Within months of its formation, another specter of coalition split looms large.  The future remains uncertain, with no clear indication of how many more changes in government will precede the 2027 national elections. 

Nepal and Yadav are said to be in talks with the main opposition, Nepali Congress, to form a new government. There are reports that NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba, Yadav, and Nepal have reached an agreement to lead a new government on a rotational basis until the next elections. 

The Nepali Congress, particularly Deuba and his supporters, are actively seeking to dismantle the Dahal-led government, proposing Unified Socialist Chairman Nepal as a potential prime ministerial candidate. However, opinions within the Nepali Congress vary regarding the formation of a new coalition, with some advocating for an alliance with JSP, RSP, Rastriya Prajatantra Party, and other fringe parties.

Deuba and his supporters were working to secure 138 seats (NC-88, RPP-14, JSP-12, CPN Unified Socialist-10, Janatmat-6, Nagarik Unmukti-4 and Loktantrik Samajbadi-4) required to form a new coalition. But with the JSP split, the NC is not in the position to secure the majority votes. 

Efforts to stabilize the government are also ongoing, with discussions between NC senior leader Shekhar Koirala and UML Chairman Oli about a potential collaboration between the two largest parties. However, opinions within UML are divided on this matter, with many opposing cooperation with the NC, their main competitor.

While Dahal and Oli may succeed in preserving the coalition, there is still risk of it falling into minority. Home Minister and RSP Chairman Rabi Lamichaane is under pressure to resign and facilitate the investigation against him for his alleged involvement in embezzlement of cooperatives money. If the government agrees to form a parliamentary probe panel as demanded by the NC, Lamichhane will have to resign. In that context, it is not certain whether the RSP will remain in the government. Calls within RSP to exit the government are growing, particularly following disappointing results in the Ilam-2 by-elections. 

The upcoming budget session of the House of Representatives, scheduled for May 10, adds further uncertainty. The NC has threatened to obstruct parliamentary proceedings unless a panel is formed to investigate cooperative scandals, potentially complicating the government's ability to present the budget. 

Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa concluded her one-day official visit to Nepal against the backdrop of global challenges, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, tensions in the Middle East, and the escalating rivalry between the US and China in Southeast and South Asia. 

Over the past decade, US-Japan collaboration has significantly intensified, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, where both countries share similar outlooks. This has led to increased security cooperation between them and expanded strategic partnerships with India and Australia. Japan’s Indo-Pacific Strategy emphasizes the establishment of a rule-based order in the region for the benefit of the international community. 

Before her visit to Nepal, Minister Kamikawa also engaged in discussions with Sri Lanka on regional affairs. Sri Lanka, which is trying to recover from a deep economic crisis, is in the global spotlight due to its debt problem with China. Japan shares the same position with the US and other democratic world when it comes to containing China’s influence in this region though it is not vocal about it.

However, when it comes to offering development assistance to Nepal, it seems Japan does not have any strategic interests. The case in point is Nagdhunga-Sisnekhola tunnel project on which there is no Japan’s strategic interests and there are other big infrastructures projects like this. Along with robust development cooperation, Japan’s priority in Nepal is transparency in development projects, upholding democracy and human rights. Japan’s Indo-Pacific outlook states that expanding a free and fair economic order in the Indo-Pacific region is one of the key priorities. 

Dr Satoru Nagao, fellow (nonresident) at Hudson Institute, says Japan wants to develop the Indo-Pacific as a stable and peaceful region, including Japan as a regional member.

In an article published on The Rising Nepal, Minister Kamikawa highlighted Japan’s support for Nepal’s democratization efforts and emphasized the shared values of democracy between the two countries. Japan is also launching initiatives like the Women, Peace, and Security Program in South Asia, recognizing the crucial role of women in fostering sustainable peace. 

Overall, the bilateral relationship between Japan and Nepal encompasses a range of collaborations, with both countries expressing commitment to further strengthen ties in various sectors, including development and labor mobility.  On the bilateral front, there is a long-list of collaboration between the two countries as Japan is one the major development partners of Nepal. The Japanese foreign minister has expressed commitment to support Nepal after the graduation from the LDC category.  

Japan is also seeking foreign workers and efforts are underway to hire more Nepali workers. In 2019, the two countries signed a memorandum of cooperation on sending Nepali workers to Japan under the government-to-government modality. Under the deal, specified skilled workers from Nepal will be hired in various job sectors of Japan, ranging from nursing care to manufacturing to hospitality. The minister’s visit is likely to make progress in this area.

Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs Narayan Kaji Shrestha held talks with his Japanese Foreign Minister Kamikawa on Sunday afternoon. The two leaders reviewed the progress made in bilateral relations and cooperation so far, and discussed various areas of bilateral relations to elevate economic and development cooperation.

The two leaders held discussion on enhancing support and cooperation in Nepal’s major developmental priorities that include agriculture, hydro-power, infrastructure development, connectivity, export promotion, industrial production, foreign investment and tourism sectors.

As the year 2026 will mark the 70th anniversary of the establishment of Nepal-Japan diplomatic relations, the two leaders also underscored the need to commemorate the milestone with high-level exchanges and various events.