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During Japanese Foreign Minister Kamikawa Yoko’s one-day Nepal visit on Sunday, the two sides discussed pressing global and regional issues.

According to Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japanese foreign minister and Nepal’s foreign minister Narayan Kaji Shrestha held a candid exchange of views on regional affairs, including the situation in East Asia and South Asia, and concurred on maintaining close communication between the two countries.

The two ministers also held a candid exchange of views on global issues, including strengthening of the functions of the UN, including the Security Council reform, the rule of law, and nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation, the Japanese ministry stated in a press release.  Minister Yoko stated that the concept of Women, Peace and Security (WPS) is becoming ever more important amidst increasing uncertainty in the international community, and that Japan would like to further strengthen cooperation in the area of WPS in the future. In response, Minister Shrestha said Nepal would like to maintain cooperation on global issues, including WPS. 

Minister Yoko also conveyed the message to Nepali leaders that Japan would like to work together for the development of Nepal and for peace, stability and prosperity in the region through practical cooperation.

Enhancing people-to-people relationships was another issue that two sides discussed during the visit. Currently, over 170,000 Nepalis, including many exchange students, are living in Japan. The issue of sending more Nepali workers to Japan also figured in the meeting.

In the meeting with PM, Minister Kamikawa also stated that Nepal's sustainable development contributes to the stability of the region and that Japan would continue to cooperate in Nepal’s efforts for sustainable development through development cooperation such as the Nagdhunga Tunnel Construction Project. 

The two ministers concurred on cooperating to further promote mutual understanding and friendly bilateral relations through the establishment of a preparatory committee in both countries to consider initiatives befitting the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations in 2026, as well as the “Human Resources Development Scholarship Program” (JDS), a grant aid program for training young administrative officials. The two ministers also concurred on promoting people-to-people exchanges through Specified Skilled Workers and tourism.

National politics is becoming increasingly unpredictable, with doubts arising about the stability of the five-party coalition government. A significant blow came with the Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal experiencing a split, as seven lawmakers and 30 central committee members formed a new party under Ashok Rai.

The Election Commission on Monday issued a certificate of political party to the Rai faction of JSP as per the Political Party Act. However, there are no clear legal provisions regarding the party formation process in case an existing party splits. 

In 2021, the government led by the Nepali Congress had issued an ordinance to amend the Act to ease the split of political parties. Based on that ordinance Madhav Kumar Nepal and Mahantha Thakur formed new parties, the CPN (Unified Socialist) and the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party, after splitting from the UML and JSP, respectively. The ordinance has since been repealed. 

The establishment faction of the JSP led by Upendra Yadav has argued that since the ordinance is no longer in effect, the new party under Rai cannot be legitimate.

Meanwhile, those lawmakers who have broken away from JSP claim that their actions were prompted by the intention to preserve the current coalition, as party Chairman Yadav, also the deputy prime minister and health minister, was considering withdrawing support from the government to form a new one. 

The latest development signifies the beginning of further rifts within both large and small parties, either to maintain or challenge the current government. The situation echoes the turbulence of the early 1990s, characterized by party splits, political maneuvering, and the manipulation of lawmakers. 

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal and his primary coalition partner KP Sharma Oli of CPN-UML are focused on retaining power or engineering government changes. 

JSP leaders say Prime Minister Dahal and CPN-UML KP Sharma Oli played significant roles in orchestrating the split to prevent the current coalition from slipping into a minority position in Parliament. Even if Yadav were to withdraw support, the current coalition is likely to retain a comfortable majority, with the assurance of the Rai-led JSP to support the Dahal-led government.

Another coalition partner, CPN (Unified Socialist), has also expressed discontent with the current arrangement, with its Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal publicly stating concerns about the government's stability. His recent remarks about certain leaders' reluctance to see him as prime minister hint at underlying tensions within this coalition. Nepal's dissatisfaction with provincial-level governance and appointments also suggests a deeper rift within the coalition.  

With a split in JSP, the Unified Socialist faces the challenge of keeping the party intact. There are suspicions that to prevent the current coalition from slipping into minority, Dahal and Oli could try to divide the Unified Socialist as well. 

The initial formation of the current coalition on March 4 saw Prime Minister Dahal sever ties with the NC in favor of incorporating UML and RSP. Within months of its formation, another specter of coalition split looms large.  The future remains uncertain, with no clear indication of how many more changes in government will precede the 2027 national elections. 

Nepal and Yadav are said to be in talks with the main opposition, Nepali Congress, to form a new government. There are reports that NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba, Yadav, and Nepal have reached an agreement to lead a new government on a rotational basis until the next elections. 

The Nepali Congress, particularly Deuba and his supporters, are actively seeking to dismantle the Dahal-led government, proposing Unified Socialist Chairman Nepal as a potential prime ministerial candidate. However, opinions within the Nepali Congress vary regarding the formation of a new coalition, with some advocating for an alliance with JSP, RSP, Rastriya Prajatantra Party, and other fringe parties.

Deuba and his supporters were working to secure 138 seats (NC-88, RPP-14, JSP-12, CPN Unified Socialist-10, Janatmat-6, Nagarik Unmukti-4 and Loktantrik Samajbadi-4) required to form a new coalition. But with the JSP split, the NC is not in the position to secure the majority votes. 

Efforts to stabilize the government are also ongoing, with discussions between NC senior leader Shekhar Koirala and UML Chairman Oli about a potential collaboration between the two largest parties. However, opinions within UML are divided on this matter, with many opposing cooperation with the NC, their main competitor.

While Dahal and Oli may succeed in preserving the coalition, there is still risk of it falling into minority. Home Minister and RSP Chairman Rabi Lamichaane is under pressure to resign and facilitate the investigation against him for his alleged involvement in embezzlement of cooperatives money. If the government agrees to form a parliamentary probe panel as demanded by the NC, Lamichhane will have to resign. In that context, it is not certain whether the RSP will remain in the government. Calls within RSP to exit the government are growing, particularly following disappointing results in the Ilam-2 by-elections. 

The upcoming budget session of the House of Representatives, scheduled for May 10, adds further uncertainty. The NC has threatened to obstruct parliamentary proceedings unless a panel is formed to investigate cooperative scandals, potentially complicating the government's ability to present the budget. 

Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa concluded her one-day official visit to Nepal against the backdrop of global challenges, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, tensions in the Middle East, and the escalating rivalry between the US and China in Southeast and South Asia. 

Over the past decade, US-Japan collaboration has significantly intensified, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, where both countries share similar outlooks. This has led to increased security cooperation between them and expanded strategic partnerships with India and Australia. Japan’s Indo-Pacific Strategy emphasizes the establishment of a rule-based order in the region for the benefit of the international community. 

Before her visit to Nepal, Minister Kamikawa also engaged in discussions with Sri Lanka on regional affairs. Sri Lanka, which is trying to recover from a deep economic crisis, is in the global spotlight due to its debt problem with China. Japan shares the same position with the US and other democratic world when it comes to containing China’s influence in this region though it is not vocal about it.

However, when it comes to offering development assistance to Nepal, it seems Japan does not have any strategic interests. The case in point is Nagdhunga-Sisnekhola tunnel project on which there is no Japan’s strategic interests and there are other big infrastructures projects like this. Along with robust development cooperation, Japan’s priority in Nepal is transparency in development projects, upholding democracy and human rights. Japan’s Indo-Pacific outlook states that expanding a free and fair economic order in the Indo-Pacific region is one of the key priorities. 

Dr Satoru Nagao, fellow (nonresident) at Hudson Institute, says Japan wants to develop the Indo-Pacific as a stable and peaceful region, including Japan as a regional member.

In an article published on The Rising Nepal, Minister Kamikawa highlighted Japan’s support for Nepal’s democratization efforts and emphasized the shared values of democracy between the two countries. Japan is also launching initiatives like the Women, Peace, and Security Program in South Asia, recognizing the crucial role of women in fostering sustainable peace. 

Overall, the bilateral relationship between Japan and Nepal encompasses a range of collaborations, with both countries expressing commitment to further strengthen ties in various sectors, including development and labor mobility.  On the bilateral front, there is a long-list of collaboration between the two countries as Japan is one the major development partners of Nepal. The Japanese foreign minister has expressed commitment to support Nepal after the graduation from the LDC category.  

Japan is also seeking foreign workers and efforts are underway to hire more Nepali workers. In 2019, the two countries signed a memorandum of cooperation on sending Nepali workers to Japan under the government-to-government modality. Under the deal, specified skilled workers from Nepal will be hired in various job sectors of Japan, ranging from nursing care to manufacturing to hospitality. The minister’s visit is likely to make progress in this area.

Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs Narayan Kaji Shrestha held talks with his Japanese Foreign Minister Kamikawa on Sunday afternoon. The two leaders reviewed the progress made in bilateral relations and cooperation so far, and discussed various areas of bilateral relations to elevate economic and development cooperation.

The two leaders held discussion on enhancing support and cooperation in Nepal’s major developmental priorities that include agriculture, hydro-power, infrastructure development, connectivity, export promotion, industrial production, foreign investment and tourism sectors.

As the year 2026 will mark the 70th anniversary of the establishment of Nepal-Japan diplomatic relations, the two leaders also underscored the need to commemorate the milestone with high-level exchanges and various events.

Nepal is already caught in the geopolitics of great power competition, and we cannot escape from it. The only option left for us is building our capacity to deal with the fast-changing geopolitical situation. There is a national consensus that Nepal should use the current situation as an opportunity to advance its economic interests. Foreign and geopolitical experts, including this scribe, often wonder whether we have built our capacity to deal with the complex, uncertain, and chaotic world. In one way or another, Nepal is already bearing the brunt of increasing geopolitical tensions. The pressing issues that the global community is confronting are growing tensions between the US and China, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, Taiwan tension, the Middle East crisis and the impacts of climate change. The impact of those issues in Nepal is evident in the conduct of foreign policy, the economy, and to some extent, the domestic political landscape. Over the past few years, we have already become hostages of indecision, ill-decisions, delayed decisions, or fractured decisions on important bilateral, regional or global issues.

To deal with the complex geopolitical situation and other global issues, Nepal needs to pay serious attention to strengthen the existing mechanisms and create new structures, if required. First, it needs to make the existing mechanisms effective. Second, it needs to work out whether it needs new mechanisms. Third, there should be effective and timely coordination among the key state institutions. 

Let's begin with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA). The ministry has 10 divisions covering all countries, regional and global organizations. However, these divisions fall short of human resources and expertise to deal with global issues, given the workload of all divisions. The creation of divisions is based on geography, not issues. Like in many other countries, there are no think tanks within the ministry to support its functioning. Nor is MoFA tolerant or positive about the government think-tank, the Institute of Foreign Affairs (IFA). MoFA officials have yet to realize the importance and role of think-tanks. They think, since they are involved in all bilateral, regional and multilateral negotiations, they have first-hand information on all issues and do not require inputs from any think-tanks. That is why, for a long time, the IFA has been left totally paralyzed.

And it is because of this hubris, the units within MoFA have failed to produce in-depth reports on important bilateral and regional issues. Take the examples of America's Indo-Pacific Strategy and China's Belt and Road Initiative. There has been no serious research and studies on either of these. As MoFA has not developed its capacity, other ministries and departments cannot take its support. Based on conversations with government officials, this scribe can conclude that there is a vague understanding of these issues among them, and they are facing difficulties in taking decisions. There is another side to the story too; there is a lack of independent experts and scholars who can conduct in-depth study and research on what Nepal's position should be in the changing geopolitical situation. There are some non-government think-tanks doing research, but government agencies and officials do not take them seriously due to their poor quality.

The underlying problem is that there is a serious flaw in the appointment of the foreign minister. Those who have at least some idea about foreign policy or geopolitics should be appointed foreign minister. On the one hand, the tenure of foreign ministers is usually short, while on the other, it takes several months for them to grasp the basic knowledge of how MoFA functions and what the key issues are. Foreign embassies or permanent representatives are one of the important wings of the ministry. However, they are almost dysfunctional. Barring some exceptions, Nepal is sending inexperienced, low-profile politicians as its ambassadors to key global capitals such as New Delhi, Washington and Beijing. 

There are some basic problems with ambassadors appointed on political quotas. First, they lack knowledge of the basics of how diplomacy works. Second, they usually do not cooperate with their respective division at the ministry; they do not even feel comfortable reporting to the foreign secretary. They work directly with the foreign minister or the prime minister. Whereas, career ambassadors have the tradition of not taking decisions out of fear of being dragged into controversy. That is why they confine themselves to day-to-day administrative tasks. There is, therefore, a need for a complete overhaul in the functioning of the ministry and its units.

Another equally important issue is the lack of cooperation between state mechanisms, mainly the Office of the Prime Minister and the Council of Ministers (OPMCM). Currently, there is a lack of coordination between OPMCM and the Foreign Minister. In some cases, the OPMCM takes decisions without consulting or informing MoFA. One example of this is the appointment of ambassadors. There is also a lack of coordination between the foreign ministry and other ministries. In principle, all decisions and communication related to foreign policy should be conducted through MoFA, but this is not happening. At the same time, there is a lack of consultation between MoFA and security agencies. Not only is there a lack of coordination among ministries, but there is also a lack of coordination between MoFA, and provincial and local governments.

Experts have been raising this issue for a long time. But political leaders do not take these issues seriously because they are wielding foreign policy to advance their party and personal interests. If all the activities and processes are made transparent, they fear losing the privilege of making secret deals or appeasing others to remain in power. This is why they usually do not want to include MoFA officials in talks with other countries, except in formal delegation-level meetings. At the same time, Nepal seriously lacks capable human resources to deal with the complex geopolitics. This should be our priority issue although it may not be a priority issue for our politicians. Our politicians should realize that they alone cannot handle foreign policy in this complex geopolitical situation. Politicians may have certain issues with the foreign ministry, but there cannot be its replacement. They, however, have all rights to restructure it.

The CPN-UML has decisively won the recent by-elections in Ilam-2 for the House of Representatives and Bajhang (A) for Sudurpashchim Provincial Assembly, signaling a significant shift in political dynamics.

In Ilam-2, Suhang Nembang secured an impressive victory with 27,772 votes, surpassing his closest rival Dambar Bahadur Khadka from the Nepali Congress who garnered 21,942 votes. Similarly, in Bajhang (A), Daman Bahadur Bhandari clinched a narrow win over NC’s Abhishek Bahadur Singh with a margin of just 267 votes.

Prior to the elections, uncertainties loomed due to internal divisions within both the NC and UML, as well as the emergence of the Rastriya Swatantra Party, which had shown considerable strength in previous by-elections in Tanahun and Chitwan. However, the latest by-election results underscore the UML’s successful efforts to fortify its organizational structure, reflecting positively on its strategies.

Since the 2022 general elections, the UML has been actively engaging with the public through initiatives like Mission Grassroots and Sankalpa Yatra, demonstrating a commitment to connect with constituents at all levels. Senior UML figures attribute their recent victories to adept management of internal discord in Ilam and Bajhang.

“We are encouraged by the by-elections results. The results show that the party has succeeded in managing the intra-party rift both in Ilam and Bhajang,” a senior UML leader said.  

The UML’s unveiling of the Mission ‘84 campaign, aimed at the 2027 general elections, indicates a strategic push to ascend as the leading political force. The outcomes of the Ilam-2 and Bajhang (A) by-elections hint at a potential shift in power dynamics, with the UML poised to challenge the NC’s dominance.

Conversely, the NC faces a significant setback in the aftermath of the recent by-elections, echoing previous defeats to the RSP in Tanahu and Chitwan. Meanwhile, the erosion of voter support, exemplified by a substantial decline in votes for both the NC and UML in Ilam, underscores the urgent need for both parties to reassess their strategies.

The overall votes of both UML and NC have gone down in Ilam. In the 2022 general elections, the UML candidate Subas Chandra Nembang had secured 30,020 votes, while the NC’s Dambar Bahadur Khadka had garnered 29,006 votes. In the latest by-election, the UML candidate secured around 2,000 fewer votes than last time and the NC lost around 7,000 votes. 

Losing around 7,000 voters should be a matter of grave concern for the NC, but the party leadership seems unfazed.

The rise of identity politics, particularly evident in Ilam’s electoral landscape, presents a formidable challenge to traditional parties like the NC and UML. Independent candidate Dakendra Singh Limbu’s robust performance underscores the resonance of identity-based narratives, posing a challenge for established parties.

Whether they believe it or not, despite UML’s victory in the recent by-elections, major political parties face serious challenges in the coming days. A key challenge for the established old parties is to retain their cadres and supporters.

And while the RSP candidate did not put on a strong electoral show, the party’s rising popularity, especially among young voters, cannot be discounted when Nepal goes to general elections in 2027.  

Looking ahead, both the NC and UML confront an uphill challenge of retaining their support base amidst the emergence of new political forces like the RSP. The need for organizational rejuvenation, coupled with a shift toward younger, more dynamic leadership, emerges as a critical imperative for both parties.

It could be argued that Suhang Nembang won the by-election in Ilam-2 due to the sympathy vote following the death of his father and former UML Vice-chairperson Subas Chandra Nembang. But the party, unlike the NC, has at least realized that there are problems within the party organization and that support base is dwindling. The party is willing to put in the hard work necessary to retain its cadres and voters. 

For the NC, the latest by-election results once again send a clear message that the party needs to wake up and  work hard to strengthen its organizational strength, resolve the intra-party rift, and pick young and fresh candidates. It is no more business as usual.

India, the world's largest democracy, is busy holding the 18th Lok Sabha elections which will conclude on June 1. The global community is closely watching the outcomes of these elections. With its burgeoning population having surpassed China's, India is on track to claim the mantle of the world's third-largest economy by 2030. As a key player in the Indo-Pacific region and a torchbearer for the Global South, India's policies, both domestic and foreign, resonate far beyond its borders.

The significance of India's elections reverberates throughout the region. While there are widespread projections that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will win a third consecutive term, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi continuing in office, opposition parties are expected to strengthen their position compared to the 2019 elections.

The election outcomes in India are of particular significance for South Asian nations including Nepal, where India wields deep political, economic and military influence. In 2014, upon assuming power with a resounding victory, Prime Minister Narendra Modi reinvigorated the 'Neighborhood First' policy, although he failed to achieve the expected outcomes. 

To demonstrate the BJP government's priority for neighbors, he invited the heads of state and government from South Asian countries to attend his swearing-in ceremony. When re-elected in 2019, Modi continued the 'Neighborhood First' policy by inviting BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Pectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) member countries to his swearing-in ceremony. If re-elected for a third term, the BJP government is likely to maintain the 'Neighborhood First' policy, although India has been focusing more on regions beyond South Asia in recent years. 

Despite occasional highs and lows, the trajectory of Nepal-India relations points toward a positive outlook, poised to weather the complexities of shared history and future aspirations.

Over the past decade, under Modi's leadership, Nepal-India relations have witnessed many highs and lows. However, the relationship is moving in a positive direction, which should continue even after the elections.

Crucial issues such as the 1950 Peace and Friendship Treaty and boundary disputes remain on the diplomatic agenda, albeit the two countries approach them with varying degrees of emphasis. Nevertheless, the two neighbors recognize the imperative of fostering trust and stability to navigate these challenges successfully. A notable shift in India's approach to the internal affairs of its neighbors signals a promising era of cooperation built on mutual respect and understanding.

The BJP government has changed its approach on how to view the internal political affairs of South Asian countries which has helped to build an environment trust.

One encouraging signal is that economic collaboration has emerged as a cornerstone of bilateral relations, with a growing focus on development partnerships and infrastructure projects. Despite changes in political leadership, the momentum in bilateral engagements remains steady, underpinning a commitment to sustained progress and prosperity.

Over the past three decades, India has faced charges of not completing development projects for extended periods. However, several bilateral projects are now making progress, ultimately helping to build an environment of trust. Recent visits by Nepali leaders to New Delhi and Indian leaders to Kathmandu have focused on enhancing economic and development partnerships. The energy cooperation agreement between Nepal and India has paved the way for regional energy cooperation, with Nepal positioned as a clean energy provider to the region. 

As India's economy continues to rise and rise, and major multinational companies shift their industries to India, Nepal, which shares an open border, should get the opportunities. India could become a destination not only for unskilled Nepali workforce but also for highly skilled professionals in sectors such as education, health, IT, banking, and others, which have not received much discussion. Both Nepal and India should seriously consider these issues and clearly outline their plans to derive economic benefits from India's rising economy. These matters should be taken seriously regardless of which party comes to power.

Amid robust economic collaboration between two countries, over the past few years, Nepal is witnessing a debate about the growing ideological influence of BJP in Nepal. In recent years, there has been a perception among Nepali leaders and the public that the BJP and its affiliates are pushing for a Hindu agenda in Nepal. It is often said that they are suggesting (sometimes pressuring) Nepali leaders to scrap secularism and go for the Hindu state. There are also reports that various organizations linked with the BJP are active in Nepal with their Hindu agenda. 

While Nepal's top leaders are aware of those issues, they have not spoken publicly. However, they want to discuss those issues with Indian leaders. BJP leaders should be mindful that such efforts could again strain the bilateral relationship, which has reached a new level after sustained efforts from both sides. It would be worthwhile to recall India's approach to the demands of Madhes-based parties, mainly after 2017, which helped enhance the bilateral relations.

Many Nepali politicians and analysts view the growing activities of Hindu organizations as an attempt to overturn the 2015 constitution. This suspicion among Nepali politicians obviously does not help enhance the bilateral relationship. There should be frank and open discussions between the two sides, not only on these issues but also on other issues of mutual concern. 

India's relationship with global powers also affects its South Asia policy. The India-US strategic partnership is likely to be enhanced, but there are divergent views on several bilateral and global issues, including the Russia-Ukraine war. The India-China relationship is unlikely to improve for at least the next few years. As I have highlighted in my previous columns, Nepal's approach should be not to engage in the big-power rivalry but to focus on economic development.

The future of Nepal-India relations hinges not on fleeting political interests but on a shared commitment to long-term prosperity and mutual respect. By prioritizing economic and developmental collaboration, both nations can chart a course toward a brighter, more interconnected future.

On 4 March 2024, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal changed his coalition partners, citing lack of cooperation from the Nepali Congress (NC), his key coalition partner at the time. 

He strung together a new coalition, with the support from CPN-UML, Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), CPN (Unified Socialist), and Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP), and promised to deliver on the missed promises to the nation. It’s been almost two months since the formation of the new alliance, and Prime Minister Dahal has little to show for his promises. 

Already, cracks seem to have appeared in the ruling alliance, with the Unified Socialist refusing to support a common candidate between UML and Maoist for the by-election that is taking place in Ilam-2 on April 27. This refusal has particularly angered the UML, which has fielded Suhang Nembang, son of late UML Vice-chairman Subas Nembang, in Ilam-2. While Prime Minister Dahal’s Maoist party has agreed to support UML in the by-poll, there is still risk of vote-splitting as the Suhang’s candidacy has caused a division within the local UML leaders. In such a scenario, the Unified Socialist’s electoral support to the UML would have been welcome. The Unified Socialist’s decision to field its own candidate in Ilam-2 has certainly not helped ease the rift with its former mother party, UML.

Meanwhile, Chairman of Unified Socialist Madhav Kumar Nepal also seems ill at ease with Prime Minister Dahal. Nepal is apparently resentful of Prime Minister Dahal not taking him into confidence before breaking the alliance with the NC.   

Nepal on Monday expressed doubts regarding the longevity of the latest coalition. He noted that the shifts in ruling coalition in a short period of time have raised a serious suspicion regarding the longevity of the latest alliance.     

“I am not in a position to answer how long this coalition will last. Perhaps Prime Minister Dahal could answer these questions,” he said. 

Nepal’s dissatisfaction with the fellow ruling coalition partners, particularly Maoist and UML, was clear when he said that the current coalition does not seem favorable. 

“We are not feeling comfortable,” he said.  

Earlier, Nepal had threatened to pull out of the coalition after his party was denied the position of chief minister in Sudurpaschim Province. When UML and Maoist Center decided to support Kailash Chaudhary of Nagarik Unmukti Party for the post, Unified Socialist backed Laxman Kishor Chaudhary from the rival faction of Nagarik Unmukti led by Resham Lal Chaudhary. 

Laxman Kishor also had the support from the NC. At the time, Unified Socialist leaders had said that what happened in Sudurpashchim Province was just the beginning and that other provincial governments could also fail. 

Taken aback, the Maoist Center and UML immediately decided to back Dirgha Sodari of Unified Socialist for the position of Sudurpaschim Province chief minister. However, the formation of the Unified Socialist-led government in Sudurpaschim did not defuse the tensions among the coalition partners. Nepal’s recent remarks regarding the Dahal-led government suggest as much. 

“We are not subservient to anyone, and we do not listen to anyone’s threats, intimidation, abuse or insults,” he said recently.  

RSP, another major member in the ruling coalition, is also in a difficult position at the moment. Rabi Lamichhane, the party’s chairman and minister for home affairs, is under pressure to quit the government for his alleged involvement in a fund misappropriation case of a financial cooperative.  

The NC has been obstructing the parliament demanding for a panel to investigate the allegation against Home Minister Lamichhane. If the case against Lamichhane escalates, he is likely to face pressure to take a break till the investigation is over. In that scenario, it is unsure whether the RSP will continue to remain in the government. The Dahal government could slip into a minority. 

Even if Lamichhane does not step down, the RSP could walk out of the coalition if the government fails to deliver on its promises. A large section of the RSP are of the view that it is better for the party to concentrate on the 2027 general election if the current coalition government fails to work effectively.

As of now, the UML has maintained a low-profile in the coalition. The party has pledged steadfast support to Prime Minister Dahal as long as his government works in favor of the country and the people. 

Meanwhile, the NC has been making efforts to improve its relationship with the UML. NC leaders, mainly senior leader Shekhar Koirala faction, is in constant communication with the UML to change the coalition. 

Koirala is proposing that the current electoral system should be changed once NC and UML come together. Regarding the power-sharing arrangement, he has said that Oli can lead the government with the condition that he cedes the power to the NC in the run up to the 2027 elections.

Amid all these coalition infighting and political maneuvering, it appears that Prime Minister Dahal is the only one committed to saving the rickety alliance that he has put together. Nepal’s political landscape is getting more murkier and turbulent with each passing day.

It’s difficult to form opinions based solely on the speeches of Nepal’s political leaders and their political documents. More often than not they contradict themselves, disregarding their previous positions. 

Amid discussions of unity within communist parties, the recent political document presented by CPN-UML Chairman KP Oli has sparked interest, as it explicitly states UML's reluctance to endorse polarization among major political entities under the guise of communist unity. This stance has raised eyebrows within CPN (Maoist Center). Presenting his political report at the meeting of the UML National Representatives Council in Lalitpur on Saturday, Oli emphasized that aligning political forces solely under leftist or socialist banners, while excluding other ideologies and entities, is not pragmatic. 

Instead, he stressed the importance of cooperation among like-minded forces. He highlighted the need to foster trust and cooperation among diverse ideological backgrounds, suggesting that unity should evolve naturally as trust deepens. "As cooperation deepens and an environment of trust is built, those with similar ideas can gradually come together in the future. But for now, it is more important to move forward by taking all positive forces along." 

Regarding the current political landscape, Oli acknowledged that the formation of a new alliance comprising the Maoist Center, UML, Rastriya Swatantra Party, and few other parties has improved the political situation. However, he expressed concerns about the sustainability of this coalition, citing past incidents. “Based on some past incidents, contexts, and experiences, there are doubts in people’s mind about the sustainability of this cooperation," Oli said. He underscored the importance of actions over rhetoric in dispelling doubts about the coalition's longevity.

Furthermore, Oli warned of the increased possibility of instability stemming from the presence of multiple parties in parliament, particularly those with diverging views on key constitutional issues. 

"The country is in need of stability. But the presence of a dozen parties in the House of Representatives and a significant number of those disagreeing on key issues of the constitution has further increased the possibility of political instability," he said. 

The UML chair also noted the emergence of populist forces and the resurgence of traditional right-wing parties, attributing these trends to disillusionment among the populace caused by political shortcomings and economic crises. "Political shortcomings, economic crisis, lack of job opportunities and poor governance have all fed the public’s disillusionment with traditional political parties. Meanwhile, populist and right-wing forces are exploiting the public discontent," he added.

While Oli's rejection of immediate leftist unity may seem like a tactical maneuver, he hasn't entirely dismissed its possibility. UML perceives the current coalition as an achievement, having thwarted the anti-UML alliance between Nepali Congress and the Maoist party preceding the 2022 national elections. 

Currently, there are three major communist parties—UML, Maoist Center and CPN (Unified Socialist)—of which UML is the largest and strongest. In case these three parties decide to unite, the asymmetry between them is likely to make the power-sharing and leadership issue very challenging. For instance, Unified Socialist Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal and Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal may seek vital positions within the unified party, a proposition that the UML leaders close to Oli will not accept. 

The strained relationship between Oli and Nepal could also hinder the unification process. Although the Maoist is talking about communist unity, UML and Unified Socialist do not appear too keen about the idea.  “There are no immediate possibilities of communist parties uniting because of the disparity between their ideologies and their future course,” said Rajendra Pandey, vice-chairman of CPN (Unified Socialist). 

Analysts suggest that Oli prioritizes securing unwavering commitment from all parties before pursuing communist unity in the long term. Although he envisions leading a united communist front eventually, he refrains from polarizing national politics along communist and non-communist lines for now. Uncertainty looms over the future of the current coalition, with UML closely monitoring the government’s functioning while refraining from committing to long-term support for Prime Minister Dahal. Maoist leaders say Oli’s position on left unity could be a tactical move and he may have informed Dahal about it. Or else, they say this could be the beginning of the crisis in the current coalition. 

After Oli unveiled his political document, Prime Minister Dahal has also changed his position about the communist unity. 

“This government is not wholly composed of communist parties. There are other parties too. So it is not a left unity, it is just a ruling coalition. If there is an understanding among the communist parties, they may come together some day,” Dahal said. This was a clear departure from his previous statement where he said that the current coalition was a beginning of the communist unity. 

The key takeaway from Oli’s political document is that UML currently extends support to the government, but it is also keeping avenues open for potential collaboration with Nepali Congress in the future.

The discussion of leftist unity in Nepal has drawn international attention, with China advocating for a unified communist party while other democratic powers prefer a coalition government encompassing both communist and non-communist forces. Oli's political document also addresses escalating geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, cautioning against provocative actions that could jeopardize regional stability and world peace, particularly highlighting US involvement in the Taiwan issue. “The task of safeguarding Nepal’s national independence, dignity and national interests has become more complicated, amidst the changing geopolitics, geo-economics and competition between major powers,” Oli said in his political report. “We must move forward carefully to protect our national interests by viewing these changes in geopolitics with a sensitive perspective.”