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The newly-formed five-party coalition has outlined its policy priorities across various critical areas such as the economy, service delivery, federalism implementation, job creation, transitional justice and foreign policy. The document known as common resolution has aptly highlighted the growing pessimism among the youth who are increasingly becoming more belligerent toward the government and political parties.  However, past experience suggests that governments struggle to translate such lofty ideals and visions into tangible outcomes. Over the past year, little progress has been made in areas such as service delivery and improving the country’s economic landscape. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s decision to change coalition partners under the pretext of overcoming obstacles posed by the Nepali Congress does not align with ground reality. Dahal has paid little attention or no attention to the pressing issues facing the nation. He has dedicated his time to attending public events, like book launches and inauguration of infrastructure projects, rather than focusing on governance.

Soon after assuming office after forming a new coalition, Dahal issued extensive directives. Interestingly, his tenure has been marked by frequent transfers within the bureaucratic ranks. He consistently said that he would reshuffle the cabinet to improve service delivery, but ended up changing the coalition. There has been a glaring lack of seriousness in addressing the grievances of victims of loan sharks and microfinance institutions, as well as in addressing the challenges facing provincial governments.  During this period, dissent against the prevailing political system has gained traction, yet the Prime Minister has taken no substantive measures to defend it. Instead, some of these measures have boosted the activities of political forces who want to overthrow the current political system.

Admittedly, Prime Minister Dahal appears to have acknowledged the existence of serious challenges that demand attention. His inclusion of the CPN-UML, Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and Janata Samajbadi Party in the government reflects a desire for improvement. While Dahal may not be able to bring the desired changes, we should give him the benefit of the doubt and wait for a few months. Dahal may have counted his ability to lead the government, juggling between NC and UML, despite being the third-largest party with just 32 seats in Parliament. But his true success now lies in delivering tangible outcomes. Dahal knows that his ministers cannot deliver. That is why he is now banking on the performance of RSP ministers who are smart enough to brainwash the people even if they cannot offer much substance.

Rising out-migration of youth is becoming a big concern for Nepal. Youths are seeking opportunities abroad, whether through student visas or work permits. While government statistics and economists indicate that Nepal is in a position to benefit from a demographic dividend over the next 15-20 years, the ongoing mass exodus of youth paints a contrasting picture. Nepal is gradually losing this opportunity. The concerning reality of 2,000 youths leaving the country daily should serve as a wake-up call for political parties. However, it appears that this critical issue has yet to resonate with our politicians. Therefore, the first and foremost priority of the government should be to bring a long-term plan aimed at creating employment and other opportunities for the youth population.

Not only the youths, everyone, from ordinary citizens to prominent businessmen and politicians, are grappling with mounting pressures. Common individuals, including farmers and employees, are finding it difficult to make ends meet and support their families. Similarly, businesses, whether small or large, are facing challenges in operating smoothly and meeting their financial obligations including bank loans. While some prominent businessmen may have engaged in tax evasion or other misconduct, the government's response seems disproportionate. There have been complaints of politically-motivated systematic attack on a certain group of businesspersons, which has led to increased capital flight from the country.

Youth politicians from major political parties are particularly feeling the strain due to the increasing unpopularity of their parties and leaders. They recognize that public dissatisfaction, including within their own ranks, has reached a critical juncture. The plight of victims of loan sharks and cooperatives underscores the broader societal discontent. These people embarked on a long march to Kathmandu, demanding justice. But the government is cheating them by pledging to form a commission or something else. Their demands are not getting addressed. The only difference is that some parties are resorting to deceitful tactics, while others are exhibiting a harsher behavior.

The excessive politicization of governmental functions from the central to local levels has facilitated widespread corruption and exploitation of local resources. This exploitation has fostered a perception among the populace that the political system primarily serves the interests of a select few. At the same time, certain regressive elements are trying to capitalize on public sentiment against the current political system. If the existing system fails to demonstrate improvement, it will not only jeopardize its own stability but also undermine the very foundation of democracy itself.

Politicians cannot evade this reality by attributing it to the actions of certain political forces trying to sow pessimism and anarchism in society. This situation did not arise overnight but is rather the result of a cumulative effect stemming from the poor governance of major political parties that have held power since 1990. Instead of shifting blame onto others, political parties must engage in introspection and undertake necessary reforms. PM Dahal, who has successfully navigated between the NC and UML to maintain his hold on power, does not have much time to revel in this situation. Since UML has given him a free-hand in running government as well as key ministries, he will have no other parties to serve as scapegoats, as he previously did with the NC, should he fail.

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs Narayan Kaji Shrestha, who is on an official visit to China, has completed his key meetings in Beijing.

He engaged in bilateral discussions with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, covering a wide array of bilateral matters. Additionally, senior leaders of the Communist Party of China (CPC) also met with Shrestha to explore avenues for strengthening party-to-party relations. While Shrestha’s visit held symbolic significance, no tangible agreement was reached on specific issues. However, the Chinese side emphasized the significance of Shrestha selecting China for his inaugural foreign trip after taking charge of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. 

Based on official statements issued post-meetings and scrutiny of Chinese media coverage, it appears that China primarily raised two concerns during the discussions: The advancement of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Nepal’s reaffirmed commitment to its security interests. Despite China's push for Nepal to sign a BRI implementation plan, no progress was made during Shrestha's visit. Nevertheless, Shrestha conveyed Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s assurance that Nepal would soon sign the document.

Foreign Minister Shrestha also provided reassurances to the Chinese side regarding Nepal’s steadfast adherence to the ‘one-China policy’, particularly in light of the recent Taiwanese election results. China has been seeking reaffirmation of this policy from neighboring countries since the victory of William Lai Ching-te from the Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan’s election earlier this year. Prime Minister Dahal was the first leader from South Asia to make a statement on the same issue

In his meeting with Shrestha, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang emphasized China’s commitment to Nepal as a friendly neighbor and strategic partner, highlighting Nepal’s importance in China’s neighborhood diplomacy. He expressed China's readiness to strengthen the traditional friendship, bolster political mutual trust and collaborate on high-quality Belt and Road Cooperation.

The Chinese side also raised the issue of implementing agreements reached during President Xi Jinping’s visit to Nepal in 2019. Yi noted the historic significance of Xi’s visit in elevating bilateral relations and praised the success of Dahal’s visit to China the previous year, which led to essential consensus on enhancing China-Nepal relations.

Foreign Minister Shrestha said the new government of Nepal attaches great importance to China. He reiterated Nepal’s willingness to collaborate on advancing the BRI and joining the Group of Friends of the Global Development Initiative. 

Notably, there was no mention of China’s Global Security Initiatives and Global Civilizational Initiatives during this visit, despite discussions on these topics in previous years. The formation of a new coalition government has sparked interest in Beijing, hinting at potential progress in bilateral relations.

In recent weeks, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), the fourth largest political entity in the House of Representatives (HoR), has emerged as a focal point in national politics.

Firstly, the primary opposition, the Nepali Congress (NC), has been demanding resignation of RSP leader Rabi Lamichhane from the post of deputy prime minister and minister for home affairs over his alleged involvement in a fund misappropriation from a Pokhara-based financial cooperative. 

Several NC leaders have demanded that Lamichhane step down to facilitate an independent and impartial investigation.

While some Congress leaders, notably General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa, have vocally criticized Lamichhane, internal dissent persists, with some advocating for patience before demanding resignation so soon after the formation of a new coalition. Some factions within the party believe that ousting the RSP from the coalition could jeopardize the current alliance. They are of the view that the party should wait for at least 100 days before demanding Lamichhane’s resignation.

Furthermore, there are also voices within the NC that suggest adopting a more conciliatory approach toward the RSP, acknowledging the potential for future collaboration, especially if all communist parties unite in subsequent elections. Despite the assertive stance of figures like Thapa, senior leader Shekhar Koirala, and certain youth leaders, Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba maintains a neutral stance.

Shankar Tiwari, an NC youth leader and a political analyst, emphasizes the party’s commitment to upholding the rule of law, stressing the importance of ensuring that ongoing investigations into Lamichhane remain uninfluenced by political power dynamics. He argues that Lamichhane's appointment as home minister presents a conflict of interest, particularly as he is under police investigation, setting aside any political motivations.

Nevertheless, critics view the Congress’ stance as an attempt to prevent Home Minister Lamichhane from opening old corruption cases, which could potentially implicate its own leaders. The RSP too accuses the main opposition party of stifling its voice by disrupting parliamentary proceedings. 

Lamichhane told a gathering on Saturday that he was willing to engage in a debate with NC General Secretary Thapa in his own constituency, Kathmandu-4. He said the allegations leveled against him by the NC were baseless.

Thapa had claimed in the HoR that Lamichhane was involved in the misuse of funds from the Pokhara-based Suryadarshan Cooperatives, citing a report commissioned by the Pokhara Metropolitan City. 

“A study panel commissioned by the Pokhara Metropolitan City states in its report that one of the individuals opening a fake account in the cooperative is Rabi Lamichhane. Rs 10m has been released in Lamichhane's name, although he is not a member of the cooperative,” Thapa told parliament.

Lamichhane denies any wrongdoing and maintains that he hasn’t been named as a defendant in the case pertaining to the fund misuse of the financial cooperative in question. He has questioned NC’s political integrity, pointing that one of its sitting ministers had felt no moral compulsion to step down even when he was being investigated by the Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority.  

Lamichhane was referring to former health minister and NC leader Mohan Bahadur Basnet, who is under investigation for his alleged involvement in a corruption case concerning the  procurement of Telecommunication Traffic Monitoring and Fraud Control System (TERAMOCS) of Nepal Telecommunication Authority (NTA). 

Friction has also arisen between the RSP and its coalition partners regarding a potential alliance in the forthcoming by-election scheduled for April 27 in Ilam-2 and Bajhang (A). Political observers say the CPN (Maoist Center) and CPN-UML will find it hard to deal with RSP in the coming days. 

While Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist party and KP Sharma Oli of the UML have stood by Lamichhane, potential sources of friction linger. Although the RSP played a pivotal role in forming the current alliance, doubts persist regarding the coalition's cohesion.

Recently, RSP Vice-chairperson Swarnim Wagle disclosed Prime Minister Dahal’s offer for the RSP to join the government some three months ago. “Many told us that we could have waited until 2027. But we felt if we can make positive changes from the government, why not accept the offer,” Wagle said about his party’s decision to join the ruling coalition. “We have chosen ministries related to good governance and youths. If we fail to deliver, we will step down.” 

Wagle’s rationale for accepting the offer also betrays RSP’s plan to pull out of the coalition if the party ministers are not allowed to work independently.    

Within the coalition, managing Lamichhane presents a significant challenge for Prime Minister Dahal and the UML. Earlier, Lamichhane had to leave the Home Ministry within a month after he was dragged into a controversy for holding dual passport and citizenship. But he is unlikely to give up that easily this time, even though the NC has been disrupting parliamentary sessions, demanding that the government investigate Lamichhane.

Despite controversies, Lamichhane’s popularity remains intact, as evidenced by his resounding victory in by-elections. RSP’s electoral successes in Chitwan and Tanahun have bolstered their confidence, and it plans to contest the upcoming by-elections and not support other coalition parties.  

The RSP’s reluctance to engage in electoral alliances signals a potential rift within the government, though it is unlikely to directly impact coalition dynamics. To influence the election and party’s popularity, Lamichhane could also leverage his position as home minister by investigating major corruption scandals involving the leaders of major political parties. If that happens, it could exacerbate tensions within the coalition.

To demonstrate effective governance, Lamichhane is already pursuing investigation into the gold smuggling case involving former parliament speaker and Maoist leader Krishna Prasad Mahara. RSP's long-term aspirations to emerge as a significant political force by the 2027 general elections may prompt them to withdraw from the government if hindered by Prime Minister Dahal and his main coalition ally, UML.

Senior RSP leaders assert their commitment to fulfilling promises or resigning, garnering tentative support from Prime Minister Dahal, who believes RSP ministers are more likely to deliver tangible results, shaping public opinion favorably. However, populist decisions by RSP ministers is likely to cause friction within the coalition. So, managing the RSP presents a formidable challenge for both ruling and opposition parties alike.

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs Narayan Kaji Shrestha is paying an official visit to China from March 24 to April 1 at the invitation of his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi.

This visit marks the first significant diplomatic engagement by a senior minister since the formation of a new coalition government on March 4. Shrestha’s transition from the home ministry to the foreign affairs portfolio underscores the shifting dynamics within the government. In addition to bilateral discussions with his Chinese counterpart, Shrestha, a prominent Maoist leader, is scheduled to hold meetings with top officials and leaders of the Chinese Communist Party.

Given lingering suspicions and allegations surrounding China’s role in orchestrating the recent political realignment in Nepal, Shrestha’s visit carries considerable significance domestically and internationally. Despite assertions from ruling alliance leaders that the coalition shift was driven solely by internal factors, doubts persist regarding China's influence.

Notably, Shrestha’s departure for China lacked comprehensive briefings from all ministry departments, raising questions about preparedness amidst heightened Chinese pressure to advance the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) agenda. 

During Prime Minister Dahal’s China visit last year, preparations were made to sign the BRI implementation agreement. But it was put off after Nepal sought some more time, citing the need for further homework. China has been pushing Nepal for BRI implementation, especially after Nepal ratified the US government’s Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) grant agreement.

While Shrestha has publicly advocated for prompt BRI implementation, the Dahal-led government has yet to reach a consensus on the matter, indicating a reluctance to hastily commit to China's initiatives. Even though Shrestha has said that implementation of past agreements remains the top agenda of his China visit,  highly placed government sources say the possibility of Nepal signing the BRI implementation agreement is very low. 

Nepal reportedly had proposed nine infrastructure projects under the BRI, but there has been no progress. 

Although Nepal signed the BRI framework agreement with China in 2017, no infrastructure project has moved forward so far. Of late, China has been trying to bring all areas of cooperation with Nepal under the BRI framework. Controversy has also arisen over China’s unilateral designation of Pokhara International Airport as a BRI project, exacerbating anxieties regarding debt sustainability. With the multi-million-dollar airport still unable to see international flights, there are concerns over how Nepal will repay the Chinese loan. 

Prime Minister Dahal has been urging the Chinese side to convert a significant portion, if not all, of the loan into a grant. He told a gathering in Pokhara a few days ago that efforts were underway to convince China on this matter. Dahal’s appeal for converting Chinese loans into grants reflects Nepal's growing apprehension towards accumulating debt, particularly in light of unfulfilled BRI promises and economic viability concerns.

The prime minister believes that if China converts the loan into a grant and makes it a gift project under the BRI, it would facilitate the BRI implementation agreement. China does not provide grants under the BRI, but the Chinese government could make such a decision if it desires. However, the Chinese side has not given a concrete response. 

Earlier last week, the Chinese Embassy in Kathmandu clarified that the Pokhara airport loan is not a noose around Nepal’s neck. It stated that Nepal’s external debt is higher from international institutions and other countries. China has expressed its willingness to bring international flights to Pokhara but has urged Nepal to provide new air routes for this purpose.

Previously, when the Nepali Congress was part of the ruling alliance, Prime Minister Dahal and other communist parties felt that relations with China were given low priority. China’s proactive engagement following the coalition reshuffle suggests a concerted effort to solidify ties with Nepal’s communist-led government. The absence of contentious issues such as the Nepal-China border dispute in the new alliance’s policy agenda signals an apparent alignment with Chinese interests, prompting optimism in Beijing regarding future cooperation.

Chinese activities seem to have increased in Nepal significantly following the formation of the new alliance. In the past, China has been slow to react to changes in government in Nepal. But this time, it issued a response soon after the new alliance was formed.

During her regular press briefing on March 4, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said: “We would like to work with the new government to uphold the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, deepen traditional friendship, strengthen practical cooperation, advance the China-Nepal strategic partnership of cooperation featuring everlasting friendship for development and prosperity, and deliver more benefits to the peoples of the two countries.”

Two days later, Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Chen Song met with Foreign Minister Shrestha to extend congratulations and engage in in-depth and friendly discussions on bilateral relations and cooperation.

Vice-minister of the Chinese Communist Party Sun Haiyan also held talks with Nepali Ambassador to China Bishnu Pukar Shrestha right after the new alliance was formed.

During the meeting, she sought information about the recent political developments in Nepal. Vice-minister Haiyan had visited Nepal last month leading a delegation of the International Liaison Department of the Communist Party of China. During her interactions with Nepali political parties, she had remarked that efforts were being made to undermine Nepal-China relations.

Similarly, Lin Jian, a Chinese foreign affairs spokesperson, on March 22, reacted to Shrestha’s visit. In a regular press briefing in Beijing, he said: “The upcoming visit will be [Shrestha’s] first overseas visit after taking office as Nepal’s deputy prime minister and minister for foreign affairs.”

“China stands ready to work with Nepal to take this visit as an opportunity to further deliver on the important common understandings between leaders of the two countries, deepen political mutual trust, pursue high-quality Belt and Road cooperation, expand exchanges and cooperation in various areas and strive for new progress in building China-Nepal strategic partnership of cooperation featuring ever-lasting friendship for development and prosperity,” Lin said.

He added that China and Nepal were “traditional friends and neighbors linked by mountains and rivers. In recent years, our two countries maintained close high-level exchanges with deepening practical cooperation in various fields”. “Our two sides maintained close coordination and collaboration in regional and international affairs.”

Last September, Prime Minister Dahal paid an official visit to China and leaders of the two countries reached important common understandings on growing the China-Nepal relations.”  China expects its security concerns to be somewhat addressed under the communist government in Nepal, which is why Beijing appears more enthusiastic about the new alliance. Additionally, the Dahal-led government has fully banned activities concerning the free Tibet movement in Nepal. 

However, challenges persist in reconciling Nepal’s commitment to an independent foreign policy with the demands of regional stakeholders, particularly amid growing pressure to navigate competing geopolitical interests. Prime Minister Dahal’s emphasis on adopting a balanced diplomatic approach underscores the delicate balancing act facing Nepal’s leadership as it seeks to assert its autonomy while fostering fruitful relationships with key allies.

The five-party ruling coalition has formed a 10-member task force to prepare a Common Minimum Program (CMP) of the government. Along with domestic issues, the task force will also outline the foreign policy priorities of the new government.

The latest coalition has four communist parties—CPN-UML, CPN (Maoist Center), CPN (Unified Socialist), and Janata Samajbadi Party—and one centrist party, Rastriya Swatantra Party. Before the Unified Socialist entered the coalition, the four parties had signed an eight-point deal where they had made a brief mention about the government’s foreign policy. They pledged to ensure “a balanced and extended international relations, keeping national interests and priority at the forefront.”

The UML, Maoist, Unified Socialist, and Janata Samajbadi have almost similar views on foreign policy, while the RSP, a new party that emerged through the 2022 general elections, has no clear foreign policy outlook as of yet. 

Whenever the government in Nepal is overwhelmed by communist parties, the international community, particularly India and western democracies, keenly watch the priorities and approach of Kathmandu. As a result, the communist government always has to go the extra mile to win the trust of democratic world. China, on the other hand, feels comfortable when there is a strong communist government in Nepal. 

So building trust with major powers will be crucial for the government of Pushpa Kamal Dahal. 

Except for China, no countries have officially reacted to the formation of the new coalition. On March 5, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said: “China has been informed about the formation of a new power equation and the reorganization of the cabinet in Nepal. We hope that the relevant parties of the alliance will unite and advance the work of forming a new government and bring about political stability, economic growth and improvement in the people’s livelihoods.”

After the Cabinet reshuffle in Kathmandu, major countries—the US, China, India, and the UK— have met Foreign Minister Narayan Kaji Shrestha and Finance Minister Barsha Man Pun. Unlike in the previous Cabinet, the two key ministries are now led by the Maoist party. Earlier, both ministries were headed by the Nepali Congress, and Prime Minister Dahal was unhappy with the working ways of the Congress ministers. 

The prime minister expects to bring some sort of uniformity in both foreign policy and economic fronts by appointing Maoist ministers. But it may take some time to identify the foreign policy and economic priorities of the new coalition. 

After taking a vote of confidence on March 13, Prime Minister Dahal plans to brief the international community about his foreign policy priorities. The prime minister’s secretariat has already been reaching out to major embassies in Kathmandu to assure that the new alliance will  maintain cordial ties with all countries. 

For Dahal, taking the international community into confidence is crucial ahead of the investment summit. 

In its CMP in 2022, the coalition of these same parties had outlined the foreign policy priorities. Its major points included protecting the country’s national independence and national interests, ensuring the rights of land-locked countries, and a relationship based on equality between big and small countries. It also talked about enhancing the policy of non-interference in internal affairs of other countries, adopting the UN Charter, Panchsheel, non-alignment, world peace and operating international relations based on the international laws. On the neighbors front, the 2022 CMP pledged to maintain “a friendly relationship with neighbors and all friendly nations for peace, stability, economic reformation and the people’s prosperity” based on mutual benefits and welfare.

The new CMP is unlikely to come up with any concrete or new points to provide guidelines for the new coalition. In the past, Prime Minister Dahal had tried to skip the contentious issues with major powers to focus on development and economic partnership. This led the main opposition at the time, CPN-UML, to blame the Dahal government for giving less priority to the relationship with China.  

Now the UML has become a key coalition partner in the Dahal-led government, and it will be interesting to see how the Maoists and UML will reconcile their differences. 

NP Saud, the former foreign minister from the Nepali Congress, says Nepal’s foreign policy is based on non-alignment and UN charter but in practice the country needs to make cordial ties with immediate neighbors India and China and other major countries.  

“Under my leadership, we have been successful in creating an environment of trust with both neighbors and other big powers. We signed energy trade cooperation with India which is instrumental to bring foreign investment in Nepal’s hydropower and other areas.” 

He adds that the previous coalition government also convinced the US and other western powers to make investment in Nepal, while the relationship with China was also moving in a positive direction. 

“There is an opportunity for this coalition government to bring in huge investments from the US and the UK. It will be a wise idea for the new coalition to follow the path that we have created in the last one year,” suggests Saud.

Dr. Nihar R. Nayak, research fellow with India’s think tank MP-IDSA, says given Nepal’s geostrategic location, Nepal does not have leverage to bring about strong changes in the conduct of foreign policy irrespective of which party comes into the power. 

“The policy of neutrality, Panchansheel,  non-alignment and not to join any military alliances are the key issues that the new coalition is likely to reiterate while conducting the foreign policy. The new coalition I think will try to keep a cordial relationship with neighbors and other powers such as the US, the UK, Japan, South Korea and other key development partners.” 

In China, Nihar predicts that there could be some progress on the BRI projects as both China and the left government want to move ahead with it. 

“China is likely to adopt some sort of flexibility in the negotiations with BRI such as concessional loans and other issues. 

In India, Nihar says, “there will not be any major changes and the current government is unlikely to raise any sensitive issues.”

When Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ditched the Nepali Congress to form a new coalition with the CPN-UML, he noted that he felt it necessary to deliver what he had promised the country. To ensure good governance and improve the political and economic situation of the country, he said he was compelled to make the move. For the prime minister, the Congress party was hindering his efforts to bring changes that could be felt by the people.      

Leaders close to Dahal say the prime minister brought the UML onboard to reinvigorate his government—although the UML on its part was also working behind the scene to break the Maoist-NC alliance. The UML felt that the Maoist-NC alliance was formed with the express purpose of keeping the UML out of power. So the party was quietly exploring ways to undo the Maoist-NC partnership, which had a strong backing from internal and external powers.  

On the face of it, the UML was focused on its ‘Mission 84’ campaign to strengthen the party’s structure and support base targeting the general elections of 2084 BS (2027). But when Prime Minister Dahal sought UML’s support to form a new coalition, UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli agreed without hesitation. This time Oli did not bargain much when it came to power-sharing. While there may have been a gentlemen’s agreement between Oli and Dahal on leading the government on equal terms for the remaining four years, there was no written deal. 

It appears that Oli was more lenient this time, that he was willing to make some sacrifices. The UML did not bargain for powerful ministries and even agreed to support the Maoist candidate for the NA chairpersonship, a major bone of contention between the Maoist and the NC. 

One UML leader says since the party did not demand attractive ministries, such as the foreign affairs, home, and finance, it helped Prime Minister Dahal to expand his Cabinet without much hassle. Oli suggested Prime Minister Dahal and other coalition partner leaders to choose their preferred ministries. 

The UML also did not send any of its senior leaders to join the Dahal-led Cabinet. For instance, senior leader Bishnu Poudel, who had earlier served as a finance minister, refused to join the government.

The uncharacteristic approach taken by Oli while joining the Maoist-led government has raised a debate whether the UML is committed to the coalition. Is it a half-hearted commitment, or is it the UML’s ploy to keep the Dahal government weak? None, says Bishnu Rijal, a UML central committee member. For Chairman Oli and the UML, he says, breaking the Maoist-NC partnership was crucial to bring political stability. Gaining important ministries was never a priority for Chairman Oli and the party, adds Rijal.   

The UML seems comfortable just supporting the Maoist-led coalition government, and allowing Prime Minister Dahal to effectively implement his plans. Dahal has mentioned that with the Nepali Congress, he felt limited and was unable to produce the desired results. The prime minister was mainly dissatisfied with former finance minister from the NC, Prakash Sharan Mahat, for not involving him in key decisions.  

Rijal says Oli believes that Prime Minister Dahal should be allowed to work without any pressure from his coalition partners. 

It is apparent that if Oli becomes prime minister, he expects the same from his coalition partners: a free hand to run the government affairs. When Oli led a powerful communist government in 2018, senior leaders including Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal had criticized him for not consulting with them on the issues related to the government. The infighting eventually led Oli to dissolve the parliament and to the break-up of the erstwhile Nepal Communist Party. 

Oli has provided Prime Minister Dahal free rein to work on his vision of good governance and improved economy. The onus now lies on Dahal to effectively lead the latest coalition. Like in the case of the Nepali Congress, he cannot use the excuse of ‘non-cooperation from coalition partners’ in case this alliance were to break up again.   

The only challenge Prime Minister Dahal may face could be from his other coalition partner, Rastriya Swatantra Party, which leads the Ministry of Home Affairs. A senior UML leader says his party will fully support Dahal’s leadership so long as he works honestly without harboring any ulterior motives to safeguard his position. 

The Dahal government should now expedite the process of finalizing the common minimum program and put serious effort into its execution. If he leads successfully, UML leaders say, the party will also consider building a long-term alliance of communist parties. For now, everything rests on Prime Minister Dahal’s action.  

Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba was fully confident that Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal would hand over the power to him in 2025. So he was treading cautiously to keep the current coalition intact, extra careful not to upset Dahal. 

In Deuba’s own words, he refused to meet the opposition leader, KP Sharma Oli of the CPN-UML, despite the latter’s repeated requests. He even turned down Oli’s premiership offer, because he didn’t want to betray Dahal’s CPN (Maoist Center). But little did Deuba know that Oli’s UML had also been making overtures to Prime Minister Dahal to break the Maoist-NC coalition and form a left alliance. 

While it is true that the relationship between Dahal and Deuba was fraught with disagreements and misunderstandings, Deuba never thought they were serious enough to break the alliance.
According to NC leaders, the current situation resonates with the incident of 2017 when the Maoist party while being in the NC-led government forged an electoral alliance with the UML. Consequently, the NC faced a historic drubbing in the general elections, while the Maoists and UML went on to unify to become the largest communist party that the country had ever seen. The unified communist party, however, split to their old forms following a power tussle between Dahal and Oli.  

Now the two communist parties are together again and the Nepali Congress, which emerged as the largest political party through the 2022 parliamentary elections, has been relegated to the opposition’s role. Deuba’s party has also been stripped of power in the provinces. The NC has been in this same situation before. Soon after the 2022 general elections, the NC had taken a firm stance of forming a government under its leadership. This led the Maoists to switch sides and make an alliance with the UML to form a government. But once again, there was a power tussle between Dahal and Oli, and the Maoist-UML coalition fell through. 

The NC returned to power after agreeing to Dahal’s condition that he should be allowed to lead the government for two years. As per the agreement, Deuba would lead the coalition government for the final two years of the five-year term, and Madhav Kumar Nepal of the CPN (Unified Socialist) would helm the government for one year after the end of Dahal’s term.  

With everything that had occurred between the Maoists and UML, with all the bad blood between Dahal and Oli, there was no reason for Deuba to suspect that something was amiss. How wrong was he! 

In Monday’s office-bearers meeting, Deuba called Dahal a betrayer for secretly aligning with the UML without any solid reason. While Deuba and his supporters have taken it as a major loss to the NC, leaders like Shekhar Koirala and Gagan Thapa are of the view that it will be beneficial to the party in the long-run. 

Koirala said break-up and formation of alliances is a normal affair in politics, even though Prime Minister Dahal abandoned the NC in an abrupt and abnormal manner. 

He added that the NC should be careful about forging such an alliance in the future.

For a long time, Koirala was against the NC-Maoist alliance. The party’s general secretary duo Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma also held contradictory views regarding the alliance with the Maoist party. Even though the Nepali Congress leader Ram Chandra Poudel was elected the President with the support of the Maoists, Thapa, Sharma, Koirala and other NC leaders were concerned that the alliance with the Maoist party was compromising the party’s ideology and eroding the support base. 

In the recently concluded Mahasamiti meeting of the NC, Thapa and his team took a firm position that the party should make an official stance that it will not forge any electoral alliance in the next general elections. So the party endorsed the proposal to not form a pre-poll alliance while also committing to give continuity to the NC-Maoist coalition until the next elections. 

It was a reason enough for Prime Minister Dahal to sever ties with the NC. Dahal was also unhappy with the performance of the NC ministers. Some leaders say the prime minister was also being pressured by the NC not to investigate high-profile corruption scandals involving politicians and businesspersons.

The NC was allegedly putting pressure on Prime Minister Dahal to remove Home Minister Narayan Kaji Shrestha, claiming that Shrestha was targeting NC leaders by opening investigations into past corruption cases. 
The NC is currently discussing their future course of action. So far it is not clear whether the party will remain in opposition and prepare for the 2027 general elections, or start making efforts to dismantle the Maoist-UML coalition all over again. 

Youth leaders of the party are of the view that the party should remain in the opposition and focus on party building, but the decision rests upon Deuba, who holds a major sway in the party. Koirala said the NC should learn a lesson from this episode, but it is really Deuba who should.  

In a dramatic turn of events, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal has ditched his key coalition partner, Nepali Congress, to form a new alliance with the main opposition, CPN-UML. According to Maoist leaders, though the breakdown in the alliance seems sudden, there was a series of misunderstandings with the NC that led to the decision.

One of the primary reasons, they say, is the recently held Mahasamiti meeting of the NC where the party’s general secretary, Gagan Kumar Thapa, and scores of other leaders passed a proposal stating that the NC will not forge any pre-poll alliance. It was a clear reference to the potential partnership with the Maoist party, whose political ideology is diametrically opposite with that of the NC. Similarly, a political document presented by NC Vice-president Purna Bahadur Khadka at the Mahasamiti meeting had portrayed the Maoist insurgency in a negative light which miffed PM Dahal. 

One senior Maoist leader said considering the constant friction encountered with the Nepali Congress, Prime Minister Dahal reached the conclusion that the alliance cannot sustain for long and started working to revive the alliance with the UML. Besides the UML, Rastriya Swatantra Party and Janata Samajbadi Party have also agreed to enter the new alliance.     

The senior Maoist leader said that Prime Minister Dahal was in favor of continuing the Maoist-NC coalition as long as the NC was willing to forge an electoral alliance in the next general elections. While NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba seemed somewhat lenient regarding the Maoist’s condition, the NC second-rung leaders were averse to joining forces with the Maoist party ahead of the next elections.

Inside the Maoists too, many leaders were raising their voice for reviving the left alliance. 

NC leader and Foreign Minister Narayan Prakash Saud said while there were some disagreements with the Maoists, including the decision taken by the Mahasamiti meeting and the issue of Cabinet reshuffle, the NC had not anticipated that Prime Minister Dahal would go on to dissolve the coalition.

Another bone of contention between the Maoist party and NC was picking the National Assembly (NA) chairperson candidate. When the elections for 19 NA seats were held in January, the two parties had agreed to field NC’s Krishna Prasad Sitaula as one of their common candidates from Koshi province. The plan was to make Sitaula an NA member and then field him again as the NA chairperson candidate to replace the incumbent Ganesh Prasad Timilsina of the UML, whose term ends this month.    

Sitaula was elected to the NA with the Maoists backing, but the candidates from the Maoist party did not win the election. Dahal’s party later concluded that the NC did not vote for the Maoist candidates. Shortly after the NA election results, Maoist leaders including Barsha Man Pun publicly announced that the party would review its alliance with the NC. The Mahasamiti meeting of the NC further reinforced the Maoist suspicion that the alliance was unfruitful.

In the government, meanwhile, there was a continuous tussle between Prime Minister Dahal and the ministers from the Congress party, particularly Finance Minister Prakash Sharan Mahat. For a long time, Dahal had been complaining that Mahat was bypassing him while taking key decisions. The prime minister was unhappy with Mahat as he failed to make any progress to recover the faltering economy of the country. Prime Minister Dahal wanted to replace Mahat, but Deuba was against it. Dahal was also not pleased with the way the NC was pressing him not to investigate the corruption cases where senior Congress leaders and businessmen were reportedly involved. 

While taking the decision to change the current coalition, Prime Minister Dahal has his own personal reasons. As the government was becoming unpopular for its failure to improve service delivery, tame corruption and bring the failing economy back on track, Dahal wanted to divert people’s attention by shifting the blame on an incompatible alliance. Also, with a new coalition in place, he buys himself some time and the reason to renew his vows of delivering good governance and progress.  

Since the first day in power, Prime Minister Dahal’s top priority was settling the transitional justice process. To this end, he has been continually seeking international support including the United Nations. Most importantly, he needed the support of the main opposition, UML, which was not forthcoming. It was obvious that the UML would support Dahal’s plan to conclude the transitional justice process only if he was willing to sever ties with the Congress.  With the UML’s support, Dahal wants to conclude the transitional justice process according to his own terms, although it is still not an easy task.

As the main opposition, the UML too was continuously working to break the Maoist-NC alliance. Although the UML leaders publicly said that the party was set on the mission of emerging as the majority party through the next general elections, the party had also set its sight on breaking the ruling alliance and coming back to power. Due to the NC-Maoist alliance, the UML was powerless both at the center and provinces.  Initially, the UML had even tried to forge an alliance with the NC and keep the Maoists and CPN (Unified Socialist) out of the equation, but the NC was not ready to entertain the idea. 

It is uncertain how long the latest coalition will last. But Dahal’s tenure is likely to be prolonged. According to leaders, Dahal and Oli will lead the government for an equal period. The two leaders have agreed to take this coalition until the next elections. But given Dahal’s track record, his propensity and history of flip-flopping between the UML and NC, one could argue that there could be more topsy-turvy political events before we reach the election season in 2027.