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The Nepali Congress faces a moment of reckoning. The country’s oldest political party, which claims to be a bulwark of democracy, is crumbling. This undoing is Congress’s own fault and no other’s. The NC’s loss in the April 23 by-election in its traditional vote base has forced the party to take stock of its principles. The truth is that the Congress party is far removed from the democratic values and visions it espouses. And with the emergence of new democratic forces, mainly the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), the grand old party stands at great and very much realistic risk of losing its supporters. It is high time that the NC reformed itself. A cohort of youth leaders have already been meeting on a daily basis to brainstorm ideas to secure its traditional political bases before they are swooped away by the RSP. It is probably for the first time in the history of NC, an emergent political force—and not its traditional rival, CPN-UML—has posed more threat to the party.  While the NC is still the largest party in federal parliament, it no longer has the luxury to stay content. The electoral verdict of last month’s by-election in Tanahun-1 is a clear indication that NC’s traditional voters, let alone the new and young ones, have had enough of the party. The party has been riven by factionalism and favoritism, while internal democratic practice has long since been abandoned. Earlier, people who held liberal democratic values supported the NC because there was no other viable alternative force. Now, there are clear signs that scores of former Congress sympathizers see their future in the RSP. When Swarnim Wagle, a noted economist and former NC member, left the party to join the RSP, he shared his frustration of working under the current leadership of Congress. He even went so far as to accuse NC leader Sher Bahadur Deuba and his wife Arzu Rana of promoting favoritism in the party. Wagle went on to win the by-election in Tanahun-1 as an RSP candidate with a wide margin against the NC candidate. While Wagle’s departure from the Congress stirred many young and thinking party supporters to question their political loyalty, his impressive electoral win has convinced them to break ties with the party for good. If social media opinions are any indicator, a sizable section of NC supporters is now inclined toward the RSP due to the Wagle factor. This shift is not limited to the urban areas. The RSP’s impact is reverberating in rural parts of Nepal as well. According to one senior Congress leader, scores of party members could defect to the RSP by the next election season. He fears the NC will lose most of its young members and voters if the party fails to reform itself, both at the central leadership and fringe levels. For the first time, according to some NC leaders, Deuba has realized the need to overhaul the party. He has proposed revitalizing the party’s sister organizations which have become more or less defunct due to factional rivalry. But the dysfunctional NC sister wings is only one aspect that the party needs fixing. To prevent young and competent party members from quitting the party, Deuba also recently appointed Minendra Rijal as a Central Working Committee (CWC) member. But Rijal’s appointment is a tiny consolation for the young party members. There is a chronic frustration inside the NC over Deuba’s working style. There are growing calls that there should be a change in the party's leadership through a special general convention. Deuba, meanwhile, refuses to budge. The Congress leader had faced a similar call when the party faced drubbing in the 2017 general elections. Again, his failure to keep the electoral alliance intact following the general elections of last year had also caused the party members to call for his resignation. But Deuba succeeded to maintain his grip in the leadership after he managed to break the coalition between CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center) and take the Congress party to the government as a ruling alliance member. Deuba continues to hold a strong sway in the party’s central committee, which is why he has, time and again, managed to come on top, despite all the political blunders he has made so far as the Congress party leader. The party has yet to convene its CWC meeting to reflect on the outcome of the by-election. The meeting is unlikely to take place unless Deuba agrees on it. As the party’s future looks uncertain, some leaders have taken upon themselves to bridge the factional rift within the party. Senior leader Shekhar Koirala has already announced a nationwide campaign in order to boost the morale of party leaders and cadres. A team led by NC leader Gururaj Ghimire has appointed seven coordinators to carry out the campaign. It is clear that the current Congress leadership cannot meet the mounting challenges of reforming the party on multiple fronts, says Ghimire. He adds the campaign is aimed at soliciting the views and suggestions of the general public on reforming the party. Following the campaign, Ghimire and others are planning to call for a special general convention of the party to elect a new leadership. But changing the NC leadership is not an easy task. Deuba, who was re-elected party president just one and half years ago, maintains a strong command in both CWC and Parliamentary Party. The rival camp, meanwhile, is a divided house. Though it seems that senior leader Koirala is leading the rival camp in the NC, it is not so. Many leaders do not see Koirala as someone who can rival the current leadership under Deuba. The rival camp must come together if they really want to put up a real fight against Deuba. Koirala himself faces a competition against Gagan Kumar Thapa to become a rival faction leader in the party. Both of them are vying for the party presidency, as Deuba cannot run again. Though the two leaders had come together during the parliamentary party election held after last year’s general election, the division was clear among their supporters, as the Koirala panel did not vote for Thapa, who was contesting the poll against Deuba. On Monday, Thapa said on a Facebook post that he would take a tough stand against the party leadership in the coming days. He noted that he had long remained silent when the party leadership chose not to follow the set system during the party’s decision-making process. Thapa’s remarks indicate that he is willing to go on a collision course with Deuba, come what may. Youth leader Bhupendra Jung Shahi says as the party is in a very difficult situation, they have no choice but to go against the current leadership to reform the party. It remains to be seen how the Congress will clean up the mess it itself has created over decades.  

When the Pushpa Kamal Dahal-led government decided to mark the Falgun 1 of the Nepali calendar as a “People’s War Day” and announced a public holiday, there was no reaction from the major political parties, except from the pro-monarch Rastriya Prajatantra Party. The decision not only glorified the decade-long Maoists armed rebellion that killed over 17,000 people, it was also a cruel insult to those families who lost their loved ones in the conflict and are now awaiting justice. Understandably, there was an uproar about the decision on social media platforms and newspaper columns, but it was not enough for the political parties like Nepali Congress and CPN-UML to raise their own voice. Instead, they quietly assented to Prime Minister Dahal’s decision to celebrate the bloody war waged by his party. The UML, the key coalition partner at the time, remained mum, because he was working hard to continue the coalition. The NC’s silence was born out of its own ambition to break the Maoist-UML coalition. It was an ugly display of political avarice by the UML and the NC, and an act of power abuse by the Maoists. The Dahal government also made the controversial decision of providing Rs 200,000 cash handouts to the former Maoist child soldiers disqualified to serve in the integrated national army during the verification process conducted by the UN, which ended in 2007. Again, the decision was made without seeking consensus from the major political parties. It was easy to see what prompted Prime Minister Dahal to come up with such a decision. There is a widespread disenchantment against the Maoist party among former combatants. The UN-facilitated program to integrate disqualified Maoist fighters back in society by teaching them skills has not produced the desired results. Today, many former Maoist soldiers are struggling to earn a decent living, and they blame their former party for abandoning them. With his cash distribution scheme, Prime Minister Dahal wants to appease the former party soldiers. It is also a move to strengthen the Maoist party’s political base, which has been eroding over the years. After registering a major electoral victory in the Constituent Assembly election of 2008, the party has been sliding behind. It won only 32 seats in last year’s general elections, which was far behind UML’s 78 and NC’s 89. By handing out a one-time dole money, the Maoist prime minister wants to keep the former combatants happy. It does not offer any long-term solution. The Ministry of Home Affairs, which is led by Maoist leader Narayan Kaji Shrestha, has endorsed the procedure for distributing cash to former Maoist child soldiers. The problems faced by Maoist combatants are genuine, but experts say offering cash handouts is not the right solution. Former Supreme Court justice Balaram KC says if former Maoist fighters are facing problems, it must be addressed through the transitional justice commission. The current decision, he adds, is arbitrary and goes against the principle of peace process. NC senior leader Shekhar Koirala has also opposed the decision in a Facebook post, stating that the government should think about providing employment to the former child soldiers instead of cash handouts. He also raised the issue of transparency, noting that the Maoist party had failed to provide the bills of the money provided to Maoist combatants in the past as well. Other than Koirala’s Facebook post, there has not been any reactions from the NC, the main coalition partner in the Dahal government. It appears as though the ruling coalition partners have agreed to freely take any decisions that suit their interests. In order to keep the coalition going, they are apparently willing to ignore the unpopular moves made by the ministries led by one or other party in the government. Following the Maoist’s footstep, the NC-led Finance Ministry is now planning to introduce populist programs in the upcoming budget, as the party has been rattled by the unprecedented popularity of the newly formed Rastriya Swatantra Party. Political analyst Chandra Dev Bhatta says the arbitrary decision making process without any consultative process is the manifestation of political opportunism. He adds parties are making decisions to serve their interests rather than the country’s interests, he adds. If the political parties continue to act this way, people’s trust in them will continue to erode, which is already happening today. Experts also worry that as Prime Minister Dahal and his ministers are taking one populist decision after another, there is no one to monitor their activities. Former justice KC says the constitution allows a coalition government to yield a positive result and ensures stability. But the ruling parties are taking decisions which could be construed as a form of corruption. One of the major priorities of Prime Minister Dahal is to address the remaining war-era cases including the transitional justice process. But he has been taking decisions without consulting other parties and considering the legal process, which is likely to be challenged in the court further complicating the matters. Experts say the NC, as a key coalition partner, should act conscientiously and have the courage to criticize the prime minister and his party, instead of giving him the carte blanche in order to protect the hard-won coalition.

“The by-election showed that the people have lost their interest in major political parties,” Nepali Congress lawmaker Ramhari Khatiwada quoted party leader Sher Bahadur Deuba as saying at the parliamentary party meeting on Monday.   Deuba’s statement came following what looked like a sure-fire loss of the party in the by-election held in Tanahun-1. At the time of writing, Rastriya Swatantra Party’s Swarnim Wagle was poised to win the polls by a huge margin, with  the NC candidate Govinda Bhattarai trailing far behind. In Chitwan-2, where the vote count started late in the day, the RSP leader too was maintaining an early lead. The UML and NC candidates—Ram Prasad Neupane and Jit Narayan Shrestha—were in second and third positions respectively. Lamichhane, who had won from the same constituency in the 2022 general elections by a landslide, is recontesting in the polls after losing his seat over invalid citizenship case, and is very much likely to register yet another victory. Elsewhere in Bara-1, Upendra Yadav, the leader of Janata Samajbadi Party, was in the lead, with Shivachandra Kushawaha of Janamat Party following behind. Both RSP and Janamat Party are new political forces that emerged as potential contenders to the old, established parties of Nepal. Their candidates were catapulted to the federal parliament in the general elections of November last year. And the early vote count trend suggests that their ascension is yet to reach its peak. At Monday’s parliamentary party meeting, NC leader Deuba also said that the party needs to improve and introduce programs that touch the people. In essence, it was a retrospection without remorse. Deuba made the right judgment when he said that the people had lost their interest in major political parties. But was it a case of too little, too late? After all, his party was handed a serious electoral beating at its own stronghold in Tanahun-1, the constituency of President Ram Chandra Poudel, a former Congress party leader. Also of note was the fact that the NC candidate got routed despite the support from CPN (Maoist Center) and other parties in the 10-party ruling coalition. RSP candidate Wagle, who recently quit the NC, is a noted economist and a former member of the National Planning Commission. He came with a flying CV with former job experience in international organizations like the World Bank and UNDP, making him one of the election frontrunners. The NC and other parties in the ruling coalition tried to put up a strong campaign against Wagle, who was labeled as an opportunist, a non-native candidate, and an untested politician. Congress general secretary duo Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma were assigned as campaign managers of the party in Tanahun-1. In the run-up to Sunday's poll, even Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Congress leader Deuba and top leaders of other parties in the ruling coalition flew to Tanahun in a government helicopter to address a Congress election rally.  But the voters of Tanahun-1 this time decided to give an untested outsider candidate a chance by voting for ‘Ghanti’ (bell), the election symbol of RSP. If the 2022 general elections hinted at the emergence of the so-called alternative parties, the by-election outcome is surely a confirmation. It is also a lesson for the three major political parties of Nepal—NC, UML and Maoist—that the days of complacency and treating constituents as vote machines are over. These three parties have been in the helm of power for decades, with the same set of leaders becoming prime ministers over and over again. Political analyst Geja Sharma Wagle tweeted on Monday: “In the local elections, people had suggested, but major parties did not learn any lesson. In the November polls, the public message was loud and clear. The by-election results are the final warning to major political parties. Their only alternative: correct themselves or perish.” Successive governments after 1990 have failed to deliver, and the people have been keeping score all along. There are no jobs, service delivery is poor, living costs are increasing, farmers never get fertilizer on time, there is no market for agriculture products, and corruption is thriving. Many youths do not see any future in Nepal, and adults are regretting not leaving the country when they were young. Every day, approximately 1,500 youths leave the country in search of a better future. Meanwhile, major political parties and their affiliates have captured the state resources from the center to grassroots. People who are not associated with a political party have to scramble even to get basic services. This inequity and disparity was starkly noticeable during the Covid-19 pandemic, when people without political reach struggled for food, medicines and vaccines. Over the decades, the relationship between politicians and the general public is becoming like that of a master and a slave. All these socio-political maladies propelled parties like the RSP to power. It started with the local level elections in which independent candidates like Balen Shah and Harka Sampang were elected the mayor of Kathmandu and Dharan respectively. They won on the plank of good governance and development. What began as a voters’ revolution in urban centers like Kathmandu and Daharan played out in the form of RSP and Janamat Party winning key constituencies in the last year’s general elections, and it seems to be continuing looking at the by-election results. People these days are more tuned to the affairs around the country, thanks to the internet coverage and smartphone ownership. Through social media platforms, they are receiving first-hand knowledge and information on national and international affairs, and are now making up their own minds. Political analysts say political parties and their leaders should realize that they no longer can manipulate the voters ahead of the election season. All their double standards and doublespeak can easily be found out. It is no wonder then that a party like RSP, with no organizational strength to speak of, is threatening to eat up the political bases of the NC, UML, and Maoist. It seems like only staunch party supporters and cadres who are taking benefits from their parties are voting for their candidates. Congress leader Gunaraj Ghimire told ApEx on Monday that if they fail to correct their course now, they cannot stop the emergence of a new political force. But as RSP solidifies its position in national politics, it has its own lesson to learn from its electoral exploits. Lamichhane and the co should honor the will of the people by leading by example and delivering on the promises of good governance. Lamichhane, a TV presenter turned politician, should know better than anyone the weight of trust that people have put on him and his 10-month-old party. Despite the controversies that Lamichhane himself and his party leaders have courted in the recent months, it appears that the people still have faith in RSP. The court case over Lamichhane’s invalid citizenship and double passport was forgiven by his supporters. Even when RSP lawmaker Dhak Kumar Shrestha was recently heard on a recorded phone conversation asking for a bribe from a businessman, there were many people who defended the party. It was praiseworthy of the RSP to promptly investigate Shrestha and relieve him from all party posts and responsibilities. Many people have regarded the incident as an exemplary move. Like Shrestha, Krishna Bahadur Mahara of the Maoists and Gokul Prasad Baskota of the UML, too, had been caught red-handed soliciting  bribes, but they faced no disciplinary action from their parties. Now the RSP has the chance to reciprocate to the unconditional support shown by the people by way of their work. As for the major parties, the message is clear as it had been all along, for years and years: sort yourself out.  

Except for India and Bhutan, all South Asian countries have become a part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a mega infrastructure project launched by Xi Jinping in 2013. Nepal has been adopting a cautious approach ever since it signed a BRI framework agreement with China in 2017. The agreement talks about various areas of cooperation including policy exchanges, trade connectivity, financial integration and people connectivity. Initially, Nepal, haphazardly and without knowledge, proposed 35 projects to be developed under the BRI. The project numbers were later reduced to nine following the advice from Beijing that Nepal should come up with fewer but commercially viable development projects. But there has not been any progress on any of those projects, as the two countries are yet to finalize the BRI implementation plan. Some hydropower projects proposed under the BRI scheme have been awarded to Indian companies. It appears that the implementation of President Xi’s flagship program is becoming a difficult task for the Nepal government. Even Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist party is not so keen about taking the BRI projects forward, lest it should divide his fragile10-party coalition. A powerful communist government, which was led by KP Sharma Oli from 2018 to 2021, had also not taken any concrete steps on the BRI. The BRI’s reputation as a potential ‘debt trap’ through which Beijing could establish its hegemony is one of the chief reasons why the Nepal government and political parties are lacking in motivation and commitment to the program. Many commercially unfeasible projects under the BRI in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Kenya, among other countries, may have alarmed Nepali leaders. The controversy over China-funded Pokhara International Airport has further tainted the BRI’s image in Nepal.  On January 1 this year, Nepal inaugurated the airport, which was built under Chinese loan but not under the BRI. The loan agreement was inked in 2016, a year before Nepal formally became part of BRI.  But a senior official from the Chinese Embassy prompted the Nepal government’s rebuttal. A senior  Chinese told this writer that since the BRI was launched in 2013, all the projects implemented thereafter, which include the Pokhara airport, automatically fall under the initiative. The official says China does not wish to make it a big issue if Nepal does not want the airport project to be listed under the BRI. The airport has already come into operation, but so far it has failed to attract international flights. If the Rs 22bn airport fails to make income, the government is sure to face a burden to pay off the loan. In an interview with this journalist, Bikram Raj Gautam, the airport chief, says as it is a long-term investment, it could take some time for the airport to generate income. So there is no debt worry among government officials as they say that the airport was constructed keeping in mind that the government can repay the loans. One major project under the BRI is the cross-border Kathmandu Kerung Railway, for which the Chinese side is conducting a feasibility study. Though the project construction may not take place immediately, China has put it in its long-term plan as a gateway to South Asia. A joint communiqué issued after the second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in 2018 included Nepal-China Trans-Himalayan Multi-Dimensional Connectivity and Nepal-China cross-border railway. If the trans-border railway moves ahead, it will become one of the major BRI flagship projects in South Asia. But Nepal and China are yet to discuss its investment modality. China has agreed to bear the cost of both pre-feasibility study and feasibility study. Nepal has proposed developing the project under grant assistance, but the Chinese side is mum on it. Nepal’s major political parties—Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center)—are on the same page when it comes to the BRI. They are of the view that Nepal cannot afford to take high-interest Chinese loans to finance its development projects. However, the communist parties continue to speak positively on the BRI in order to appease China. Mainly communist leaders even blame non-communist parties of taking a rigid position on the BRI to spoil the relationship with China. In 2022, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba reportedly told the visiting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi that considering the looming economic crisis, Nepal cannot take loans under BRI to finance projects. Many took this statement as anti-BRI posture. But this is exactly what communist party leaders are saying to the Chinese side in private meetings. In Nepal, the BRI is perceived as an exclusive infrastructure project, but there are other components as well, such as policy cooperation, unimpeded trade, financial integration and people-to-people connectivity. Lately, the Chinese side has been insisting that whatever they cooperate on or provide assistance to bilaterally is under the BRI framework. Such a position has only made Nepal’s bilateral engagements with China more difficult. More recently, China has come up with new programs such as Global Development Initiative (GDI), Global Security Initiative (GSI) and Global Civilizational Initiative (GCI), which are aimed at building an alternative global order to counter the West, particularly the US. These initiatives aim to promote Chinese values, development models and security issues mainly in the Global South. For a country like Nepal, so strategically placed between China and India, taking positions on these initiatives are going to be challenging to say the least. Our political leadership has a limited and often misleading understanding about these projects, and our academia is heavily influenced by either Western or Chinese narratives. Taking an objective and impartial position under such conditions will be difficult. This is exactly what had happened regarding the American MCC project in Nepal. Dealing with China is going to be more complex in the days to come. It will do well for our political leadership to come up with a unified position.

For Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, keeping the 10-party coalition intact is a major challenge. As much as it is important for Dahal to keep his key coalition partner Nepali Congress, the largest party in Parliament, happy, it is also crucial that he satisfy the concerns of fringe parties. Past experiences show that Dahal and Congress President Deuba can manage their differences. But the small parties in the government, who are more likely to be ignored in the decision-making process, are the ones who could create trouble for the prime minister. Prime Minister Dahal, whose party, CPN (Maoist Center) came out third in the general elections of November last year, is under immense pressure to deliver. Failure to lead a successful government could see his party slide further behind in the next election. This is a haunting but real prospect, as new forces like the Rastriya Swatantra Party are already threatening the major parties that have hitherto dominated Nepal’s political scene. But in order to deliver, it is not enough for Dahal to just keep the coalition intact. This much is clear from the events of the past few months. Dahal also needs to maintain a good rapport with the main opposition, CPN-UML, particularly its leader KP Sharma Oli. Again, if we consider the past events, Dahal and Oli cannot work together. If anything, Oli and his party will try to obstruct and oppose the decisions of the Dahal government. Let’s regard two cases: transitional justice bill and appointment process of the Supreme Court chief justice. Prime Minister Dahal wants to fast-track the passage of the bill that aims to amend some clauses on the Enforced Disappearances Inquiry, Truth and Reconciliation Commission Act, 2014. The bill has already been tabled in the House of Representative, which has met with widespread criticisms for its shortcomings. National and international human rights bodies have denounced the bill, stating that it could provide space for blanket amnesty on serious human rights violations committed during the 10-year long insurgency. As of Thursday, 26 lawmakers have already registered their amendment proposal on the controversial bill. The prime minister could ignore the concerns of lawmakers from other parties, but not that of the UML, the second largest party in Parliament.  UML Chairman KP Oli has taken a firm position that the bill should be in line with the Supreme Court’s verdict of 2015 and must meet the international standard on transitional justice law. Over the past few weeks, Prime Minister Dahal has held a series of meetings with Oli, but the latter has shown no signs of softening his stance. The UML leader is of the view that the bill should be discussed and revised in the relevant parliamentary committee before its passage, instead of being fast-tracked. Without Oli’s support, Dahal cannot endorse the bill. This means there will be no progress on Nepal’s long overdrawn transitional justice process. Dahal wants to complete the tasks related to transitional justice within the next two years of his premiership, before he steps down as part of the power-sharing deal with his coalition partners. Prime Minister Dahal and Oli also stand divided on the issue related to the appointment of a new chief justice. In the Constitutional Council, which has the mandate of making recommendations for appointments in constitutional bodies, the UML holds the majority. Besides Oli, Speaker Dev Raj Ghimire and National Assembly Chairperson Ganesh Prasad Timalsina, both from the UML, are in the council. So, without support from Oli, Prime Minister Dahal cannot make any appointments in constitutional bodies including the Supreme Court. Oli also enjoys an upper hand over Dahal in both houses of federal parliament, each led by UML candidates. Although the speaker of the House of Representatives and the chairperson of the Upper House are considered neutral posts, they can still work in favor of their respective parties. In fact, two former speakers, Agni Prasad Sapkota and Krishna Bahadur Mahara, have already demonstrated how they can sow partisan division. The relationship between Dahal and Oli is fraught with deep mistrust. They have betrayed each other in the past, and the likelihood of them working together appears very slim. There is no smooth sailing for the prime minister.

As electioneering heats up for the crucial by-election set to take place in Tanahun-1, Bara-2 and Chitwan-2, senior cross-party leaders are pouring into these constituencies to back their candidates. Typically, a by-election in three constituencies is not a national event. But not this one. The April 23 by-election will be a litmus test for the old parties and the new ones. Its results will show the mood of the voters, whether they still support the old  forces, or prefer the new dynamic parties to lead them. In Tanahun and Chitwan constituencies, a three-way competition is expected among the Nepali Congress, the CPN-UML, and the Rastriya Swatantra Party.   In Bara-2 the main contest is between the CK Raut-led Janamat Party and the Janata Samajbadi Party headed by Upendra Yadav, who himself is competing for the seat. The Swatantra Party and Janamat Party emerged as agents of change and alternative to old parties through the general elections held in November last year. Some political analysts say despite some controversies and hiccups, these two parties still hold a significant influence among the voters. Major political parties like the Congress and UML, and Yadav’s Samajbadi Party, a dominant political force in the Madhes region, are aware of the immense popularity gained by the upstart political parties. In Bara-2, where the by-election is being held after Ram Sahay Yadav was elected the Vice President, it is a do or die test for Janata Samajbadi leader Yadav, who lost in the last year’s general elections to Janamat Party’s Raut from Saptari-2. Raut, who aspires to become an influential leader from the Madhes region, is trying to defeat Yadav once again. In Tanahun-1 and Chitwan-2, it is the RSP against the NC and UML candidates. The RSP has fielded economist and former Congress member Swarnim Wagle in Tanahun-1. The party chair, Rabi Lamichhane, himself is re-contesting the seat from Chitwan-2, which he had lost over an invalid citizenship case. For the NC, winning the by-election in Tanahun-1, a seat vacated by its leader Ram Chandra Poudel after being elected the country’s President, is a matter of prestige. It has fielded Govinda Bhattarai, a Tanahun resident, against RSP’s Wagle, who hails from Gorkha. Wagle, who once described himself as a lifelong NC supporter, recently severed ties with the party, noting his immense displeasure with the Congress leadership, particularly the party leader, Sher Bahadur Deuba, and his wife Arzu Rana Deuba. Within days, he joined the RSP and was named the by-election candidate from Tanahun-1. If Wagle wins the by-election, it will be a serious blow to the NC. Political analyst Puranjan Acharya says Wagle’s win could trigger a departure of many NC supporters, especially the young ones. A cursory look at the social media trends already indicates this possibility. Many Congress sympathizers and cadres are supporting Wagle’s candidacy, and criticizing the Congress leadership for pushing him away. Wagle could very well pull off a victory in Tanahun-1, handing an electoral upset to the NC—and a lesson to the party leadership. For a long time, the Congress party has remained a divided house due to the bitter relationship between its two leaders, President Poudel and Govinda Raj Joshi. Joshi still holds a significant sway among Tanahun voters. Come April 23, approximately 7,000 of his supporters are said to vote for Wagle to defeat NC’s Bhattarai. The nationwide craze behind the RSP could also work in favor of Wagle. In the last year’s general elections, scores of youths studying or working abroad had convinced their parents, grandparents and relatives in Nepal to vote for Ghanti (bell), the election symbol of the RSP. The same scenario could play out in the upcoming by-election. Besides, Wagle holds a dazzling CV and is highly regarded both by a section of the intelligentsia as well as common people, making him a formidable candidate. The UML has fielded former Nepal Police chief Sarbendra Khanal in Tanahun-1, and the party is banking on possible vote splitting between Bhattarai and Wagle to win the constituency. But analysts say it’s a long shot, as scores of UML voters are also showing their support to Wagle. For the RSP, winning the by-election in Tanahun-1 and Chitwan-2 will be gaining a significant vote of confidence from the public. Soon after the party won 20 seats in the lower house of federal parliament, it was caught up in one controversy after another. First, its leader Lamichhane was accused and found guilty by the court for presenting invalid citizenship certificate to contest the polls and lost his positions as the Home Minister and the lawmaker. Following the incident, Lamichhane made several controversial remarks at a press meet against the mainstream media, editors and publishers, and announced to recall its ministers from the government led by Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal. Most recently, the RSP was caught up in another controversy, where its lawmaker Dhaka Ram Shrestha was caught on a recorded telephone conversation, soliciting bribes from businessman Durga Prasai. Analysts say the by-election results of Tanahun-1 and Chitwan-2 will show whether the voters are still behind the RSP and behind its charismatic leader, Lamichhane. The victory will also establish the RSP as a clear contender to the traditional political parties, mainly to the NC, the UML and the CPN (Maoist Party), in the next local and parliamentary elections. For Lamichhane, who is once again contesting the by-election from Chitwan-2, securing a back-t0-back victory is highly likely, despite his reputation and popularity taking some beating due to dual citizenship and passport controversy. As for the NC, which emerged as the largest party in parliament in the last year’s general elections, losing the Tanahun and Chitwan constituencies, despite the backing from the Maoists and the CPN (Unified Socialist) voters, could have a psychological impact on the party’s rank and file. A defeat means the party’s political base is eroding. Congress has mobilized its two general secretaries, Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwo Prakash Sharma, to rally the voters behind the party. The duo is joined by a bevy of influential party leaders, and they are all trying hard to win the by-election, particularly in Tanahun-1. To this end, they are trying to portray Wagle as someone who betrayed his former party and as an opportunist who joined the RSP to become a parliamentarian. Wagle remains undeterred. Speaking at an election rally on Monday, he claimed that the ruling coalition has set upon him all the political and state mechanisms to beat him in the by-election. Political analyst Acharya says NC President Deuba has made his mission to stop Wagle’s political rise at all cost. If the party loses the by-election, he says it will send out a big tremor inside the Congress and his leadership will have to take the blame for the consequences.

The new deadline set by Nepal Army (NA) to complete the construction of the Kathmandu-Tarai/Madhes Fast Track Project is just 17 months away. But the project has achieved only 21.81 percent physical progress and 20.49 financial progress in the past five years. The initial deadline of the expressway was Sept 2021, and was extended to Jan 2025 due to a lack of progress. At the current progress rate, the NA is sure to miss the latest deadline again. Tulsi Sitaula, former government secretary, says the deadline cannot be met due to various reasons including the dispute over detailed project report (DPR), and  the Army’s lack of experience in handling the issues such as public procurement and dealing with international consultants. The ongoing economic crisis is also likely to affect the project’s progress, as the government is not in a position to inject sufficient funds, adds Sitaula. Another reason why the fast-track work hasn’t picked up the desired pace is the court cases against the NA on various contract-related issues. According to sources, the Army is seeking another two-year deadline extension for the project. The Ministry of Defense is likely to approve the deadline extension request, provided the NA gives its assurance that it will complete the work. Sources say the Ministry has sought a revised proposal including the project cost from the Army. The government awarded the NA the contract to develop the mega infrastructure project on May 4, 2017.  According to the 69th annual report of the Office of the Auditor General, the project has spent Rs 2.76bn (8.04 percent) of the total expenditure so far on purposes unrelated to the project. Similarly, the project has spent Rs 1.53bn (4.48 percent) of the total expenditure on consultancy services. It's worth noting that the consultant's contract is not based on the project cost or scope, but rather on the project duration. This means that if the project is not completed on time, the consultant will have to be paid additional fees. The OAG has found that the project has paid Rs 52.94m for the services of two consultants, despite already hiring an international consultant for similar services. The OAG has deemed this expense inappropriate and has highlighted it in its report. Stating that frequent changes in key personnel of the project could impact its quality, the OAG has recommended that the project should make necessary arrangements to avoid such changes, except in situations prescribed in the public procurement regulations. Although Section 4 of the EPC (engineering, procurement and construction) contract guidelines requires offices to obtain pre-approval from the concerned ministry before initiating procurement through the EPC model, the fast-track project awarded contracts worth Rs 8.82bn for five packages prepared by consultants under the EPC, lumpsum, and item rate contract methods. The OAG had previously highlighted in its 59th annual report that the project office disqualified 21 bidders and awarded the contract to only one qualified contractor for Package 2 (tunneling works). Rs 6.32bn of the package's total cost of Rs 24.23bn has been spent. The project still needs to acquire 392 ropanis of land for the project's right-of-way, out of the targeted 5,172 ropani that should have been acquired by last year. Additionally, there has been no progress in acquiring an additional 49.3 ropanis for river training works, 49 ropanis for tunnel management and building, and 11 ropanis for the Mahadevtar base camp, as per the OAG report. Furthermore, the report indicates that the project office has not provided information regarding additional costs incurred for consultancy services related to river training works. The project had hired a separate consultant for this work, as noted by the OAG. Despite the fact that the cost of extending electricity lines and installation of transformers is supposed to be covered by the contractor company, the project office has paid Rs 18.27m to the Nepal Electricity Authority. The OAG has advised the project office to recover this amount, but it has not done so yet. The OAG has also noted that the project office has not maintained proper records of the sand and aggregates excavated during construction works, as required by the law. The project office has failed to meet the legal requirement of transplanting 25 saplings for every tree felled by the project. Altogether, 27,370 trees have been felled so far, which means that it needs to transplant 684,250 saplings. However, the NA has only transplanted 614,595 saplings to date. The project involves the construction of 72.5 km roadway, 87 bridges, tunnels, interchanges, toll plazas, and rest areas, among other features. The total estimated cost of the project is Rs 213.95bn, which includes environmental and social costs as well as contingencies. The project office has released Rs 3.07 billion mobilization amount for three packages so far. However, the contractor of Package No. 3 was provided Rs 432.26m under a second installment on a different bank account even before the design work was approved. The project office has been found preparing cost estimation of Packages 1 and 2 even before getting norms for tunneling works approved by the government. The estimated cost of Package 1 was Rs 24.21bn while the contracted amount is Rs 21.51bn. Similarly, the estimated cost of Package 2 was Rs 29.32bn while the contract amount was Rs 28.53bn. The project hasn't prepared the design of a 6.4-kilometer section in Cluster 1 of the Khokana area due to a land acquisition dispute with the local people. The NA is requesting the government to resolve the issues surrounding the Khokana area, but nothing has come of it yet. The mega infrastructure project aims to connect Kathmandu to the southern plains through a six-lane expressway. The project is expected to significantly reduce travel time and boost economic growth in the region. Info for front page and box for second page

1. Details of Financial Progress:

House Speaker Dev Raj Ghimire adjourned Wednesday’s session of Parliament until Monday due to the lack of quorum. Although the Parliament record for the day showed 167 “present attendance”, there were only 61 lawmakers inside the Parliament hall at the time of meeting. The Parliament must have the presence of one-third members (69 lawmakers) to make up the minimum quorum, or else the meeting cannot take place.   This is not the first instance where a Parliament session was canceled due to high absenteeism. It is also not the first case of lawmakers visiting the Parliament only to mark their attendance, so that their remuneration and allowances are not canceled. Many lawmakers make time to attend public events and functions, but when it comes to their main duty, they are often a no-show. Over the past three months, lawmakers were busy with the preparation of working procedures of the House and with the elections of president, prime minister, speaker, deputy speaker, and the prime minister’s vote of confidence. Ideally, the Parliament and its members are supposed to be busy right now, getting on with the core business of lawmaking. There is an urgent need to endorse some crucial bills after thorough screenings by parliamentarians. But there seems to be no sense of urgency on the part of political parties, lawmakers and government. For instance, a bill to amend laws related to prevention of money laundering and promotion of business environment has been registered in Parliament. The bill proposes amending 20 laws related to money laundering. Considering the urgency of matter, the erstwhile government had introduced an ordinance on the same issue, but former President Bidya Devi Bhandari had disapproved it on the grounds of looming elections. Endorsing the bill is crucial because the delay could lead to Nepal being graylisted by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), a global anti-money laundering watchdog. Getting gray-listed by the FATF means earning Nepal disrepute for not being financially transparent. It could also affect the country's dealings with international financial institutions. But rather than acting quickly to endorse the bill, the lawmakers are skipping parliamentary meetings. Had they any sense of urgency, they should be exerting pressures on the government to endorse the bill at the earliest. Unfortunately, that is not the case. Similarly, the government has also tabled a bill to amend the transitional justice law. The bill has drawn criticisms from the main opposition, CPN-UML, international community and conflict victims. The government wants to fast-track the bill, but opposition parties and rights activists want intensive consultations and revisions on the proposed amendment bill. Parties are likely to forward the bill to the parliamentary committee for further deliberations, but the committees have not been formed yet. However, lawmakers alone cannot be held responsible for the dismal performance of Parliament. After the promulgation of the new constitution in 2015, the government and leaders of major political parties have paralyzed the House proceedings on various occasions. One of them is the state of constant tussle between the prime minister and House Speaker. Former prime minister KP Sharma Oli and then speaker Krishna Bahadur Mahara were often at odds. It was the same between immediate past prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and erstwhile speaker Agni Sapkota. Now, in keeping with the culture, incumbent Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Speaker Ghimire are also likely to feud. Ghimire was elected from the opposition, UML, and there is a growing mistrust between him and Dahal. A few days back, UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli said that a conspiracy was afoot to impeach the Speaker Ghimire. Khim Lal Devkota, a member of National Assembly, points out various reasons behind the dismal performance of Parliament. There is always a lack of coordination and communication between executive and legislature, which is important to make parliamentary activities effective and result-oriented, he says. It is the responsibility of the government to provide businesses to parliament, adds Devkota. In his view, all major political parties including the main opposition should be serious about making the Parliament more vibrant. Experts say political parties are making legislative bodies as their power center and making only those laws that serve their personal interests. The transitional justice amendment bill is a case in point, says former Supreme Court justice Balaram KC. The government wants to get it endorsed without intensive deliberations in the House, which, according to KC, is an act of betrayal against the people. The role of Speaker is also equally important for a smooth functioning of Parliament. The speaker, say experts, should take strong actions against those lawmakers who skip the House sessions without strong reasons. It is also the job of the Speaker to talk with the government and political parties to ensure that the regular business of Parliament takes place without obstructions. Former justice KC says successive governments have shown the tendency of bypassing the Parliament and relying on ordinances to pass new bills. This would not happen if we had a strong parliamentary practice, he adds. To discipline the lawmakers, many countries have a provision of preparing a report card of every parliamentarian, which includes the attendance, activities, and speeches of individual parliamentarians. Similar practice is not followed in Nepal. The Parliament Secretariat only keeps the attendance records of the lawmakers. It has been six months since the current parliament was elected, and over this period, it has not accomplished any notable task.