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When the CPN (Maoist Center) and the CPN-UML came together on 25 December 2022 to form a new government under Pushpa Kamal Dahal, the Nepali Congress was thrown to the opposition aisle. The NC had forged an electoral alliance with the Maoists and other fringe parties to fight the parliamentary election on 20 November 2022. But the alliance fell through after Congress leader Sher Bahadur Deuba refused to cede the prime minister’s office to Dahal. The NC had won the most number of seats in parliament, but failed to secure a majority. The Maoist-UML reunion came as a shock to many, not just the Congress party. The animosity between Dahal and UML leader KP Sharma Oli was too deep for anyone to even imagine that they could come together. Naturally, Deuba came under fire from the party rank and file for failing to save the electoral alliance and helping revive the coalition of two major leftist forces. It was a disaster in the eyes of the NC as well as external powers including India that are averse to a communist party rule in Nepal. But by joining forces with the UML and other fringe parties including the Hindu right-wing Rastriya Prajatantra Party, Prime Minister Dahal had cobbled together a shaky coalition. As the key coalition partner UML, the second largest party in parliament, was effectively running the government. Oli was the kingmaker, and Dahal a powerless premier. It didn’t take long for the Maoist-UML coalition to crack. The NC played a significant part in this by offering a vote of confidence to Dahal, even if that meant blurring the line between the ruling and the opposition parties in parliament and creating a national confusion. Now the Maoists and the NC have once again revived their coalition, but the uncertainty about its lifespan remains — after all, making and breaking of alliances has always been a dominant theme in Nepali politics. The breakdown of UML-Maoist coalition in two months does not offer any hope of stability. No one knows what kind of power-sharing understanding was reached between Prime Minister Dahal and NC leader Deuba this time. There are media reports that Dahal, Deuba and CPN (Unified Socialist) leader Madhav Kumar Nepal will be taking turns running the government for five years. But even the top politicians of the ruling parties cannot confirm if such a deal was indeed struck. Before taking the decision of forming the latest coalition, Prime Minister Dahal had held several rounds of meetings with senior Congress leaders. But NC Central Working Committee member Ramesh Rijal says, “The party leadership has not informed us about the agreement on power-sharing.” As the joint numerical strength of the NC and the Maoists is not sufficient to keep the coalition in power, it is vital for the two parties to stay together and, at the same time, keep the other fringe parties happy. For now, the NC seems to be basking in the glory of having recaptured the position of power by breaking up the left alliance and having elected its leader Ram Chandra Poudel to the post of president, but the party has a steep challenge ahead to keep the coalition together. The same goes for the Dahal’s Maoist party, which has been losing its political strength and relevance over the years. “Continuation of the current coalition is the need of the hour,” NC Vice-president Purna Bahadur Khadka told the party meeting on Wednesday. Compared to the past, the NC this time seems united when it comes to fostering a sustainable partnership with the Maoist party — that is, until the next election. Earlier, leaders like Gagan Kumar Thapa and Shekhar Koirala were not in favor of this idea. But it is still too early to say how long this political partnership will last. A few days back, Thapa said at a public program that the course of the coalition would be determined by the performance of the government in the next five-six months. He added if the current coalition fails to ensure good governance and address the economic crisis, it could prompt the NC to rethink about the future of the government. Thapa’s remarks suggest that the NC-UML coalition cannot be ruled out. The UML, which is now in opposition, is already hinting at a possible alliance with the NC “for the stability of the government.” The UML’s top priority right now is to unseat Dahal and his party from power. However, NC leader Rijal says there are no chances of an NC-UML coalition at least until the next election. NC youth leader Shankar Tiwari is also confident that the chances of NC-UML coming together are almost zero. “The parties came together in the past because there was the question of constitution promulgation. The situation is completely different now,” he says. It appears that Deuba and his team in particular is unlikely to displease the Maoists or change the political course, for the fear that it could once again create an environment where the two communist parties could come together. NC youth leader Tiwari says there are some major political and policy barriers between NC and UML. “Oli’s attempts to dissolve the previous parliament was unconstitutional, but he is still insisting that he was right and talking about mid-term elections. Congress cannot work together with the UML if it is holding the same view,” he says. But there is no mistaking that Prime Minister Dahal still leads a fragile coalition of eight parties with conflicting positions on domestic and external issues. His main challenge is to satisfy all coalition partners. The incumbent Cabinet will be reshuffled soon after he takes a vote of confidence on Monday. There are chances of dispute breaking out among the coalition partners during the Cabinet expansion process, because it is impossible to meet the aspirations of all political parties. As the largest party in the coalition, the NC will certainly bargain for more ministries, and powerful ones like finance, foreign affairs, and defense. There is also the risk of intra-party feud within the NC, as the number of ministerial aspirants has increased with the rival faction in the party supporting Deuba in his decision to give the trust vote to Prime Minister Dahal back in January. According to some NC leaders, Deuba wants to provide a respectable share to the rival faction for the sustainability of the coalition. Or else, there is sure to be friction within the party, which could affect the government functioning. Meanwhile, the CPN (Unified Socialist), another vital coalition partner, is also sure to bargain for more ministries, for it did not get the presidency. And with several parties likely to be represented in the government, it remains to be seen how practical the Common Minimum Program is going to be. The parties could manage the differences on the domestic issues, but disagreements persist between the NC and the UML on matters relating to dealing with external powers. Another challenge before the Dahal-led government is to address the demands put forth by fringe parties such as Nagarik Unmukti Party and Madhes-based parties, mainly about releasing their cadres who are in prison and issues related to citizenship. Parties in the opposition, mainly the UML and the RPP, who together hold 90 seats in parliament, could protest if the issue of citizenship finds space in the House.

President-elect Ram Chandra Paudel will take the oath of office and secrecy on Monday as the third president of republic Nepal. Like his predecessors—Ram Baran Yadav and Bidya Devi Bhandari—Paudel too comes from a political background. The President is regarded as a constitutional head of the state with limited powers defined by the constitution and federal law. But the executive powers are vested in the council of ministers. Still, electing a politician with executive ambitions could raise the risk Sheetal Niwas emerging as a parallel power center. It was evident in the case of two past presidents that instead of keeping the Office of the President free from politics and controversy, parties view this institution as a tool to advance their political interests. This has eroded the credibility of the president’s office and often become a subject of public criticism. The tussle between the president and the prime minister erupted right from the time Nepal became a republic by electing a political leader to the post. Ram Baran Yadav, the first president, was a senior Nepali Congress politician loyal to the NC leaders, Girija Prasad Koirala and Sushil Koirala. Similarly, outgoing president Bidya Devi Bhandari came from the CPN-UML. She served two terms in Sheetal Niwas. Both Yadav and Bhandari were always grateful and loyal to their political patrons, and they showed this gratitude by siding with their parties on more than one occasion. The two former presidents faced charges of breaching the constitution by interfering in the executive’s jurisdiction and conversely engaging in party politics. Yadav courted several controversies and faced the charges of acting as a parallel power center. The tussle between the Office of the President and the Office of the Prime Minister over the government’s decision to sack the then Chief of Army Staff Rookmangud Katawal culminated into the resignation of Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal. Yadav took the decision to refuse the government’s move following the whispers of his party. The Maoist party launched a street movement against the president, and the new republic was to get cougars in a power tussle between the president and prime minister from 2011 to 2015. It was expected that the parties would learn lessons from the first presidency and elect a non-partisan figure as the second head of the state. But the second president, Bhandari, was even more controversial. During her eight-year tenure, Bhandari faced charges of favoring her party, UML. She was heavily criticized for endorsing the decisions of the KP Oli government to dissolve the democratically elected parliament twice. Once again, Nepal has got an active politician as its president. Moreover, the president-elect is someone who had made several unsuccessful bids to premiership as a NC leader. And unlike Yadav and Bhandari, Paudel is a dominant force in his party. This begs the question: can Paudel maintain the dignity of his office? There are fears that there could be more confrontation between the president and the prime minister, as a senior leader of a political party has reached Sheetal Niwas. Paudel has previously held the post of House speaker and several ministerial positions. Though he has achieved the highest position in the country, he still regrets not becoming the prime minister. Even after being elected the president, Paudel said that his preference was to become the executive head rather than the constitutional president. This statement betrays his hunger to wield executive power. It also suggests that Paudel could be a more controversial president than his two predecessors. Political analysts predict that his dominant personality may put him on a collision course with the government. One NC leader reckons Paudel will start asserting his power after some months into the office, dictating the works of the prime minister. Even the party leader, Sher Bahadur Deuba, cannot control him, adds the leader. The past presidents have often come to clash with the prime minister on the issue of authenticating bills and ordinances. As per constitution, the president should endorse the ordinances forwarded by the government. But, the problem with the ordinance is that they are designed to serve the petty party and personal interests of the prime minister and his party. The president often faces the pressures to authenticate the decisions of the executive but at the same time, there is a pressure from the public to reject the decisions, particularly if they contain objectionable provisions. Regarding the bill endorsed by Parliament, the constitution has given certain rights to the president. Article 113 of the constitution says: In case the President is of the opinion that any bill, except a Money Bill, presented for authentication needs reconsideration, he or she may, within 50 days from the date of submission, send back the bill along with his or her message to the House in which the bill originated. However, if parliament sends the bill to the Office of the President—with or without consideration of the president’s queries—for the second time, it has to be authenticated. Both Bhandari and Yadav were dragged into controversy due to ordinances. On those issues, the Prime Minister’s Office was equally responsible for bypassing the parliament and trying to steamroll controversial bills or laws through an ordinance. This culture often puts the president at the center of political controversy. A lack of communication between the president and prime minister in the past has also created misunderstandings between the two institutions.  Though Article 81 of the constitution makes it mandatory for the prime minister to inform the president about the bills that are to be introduced in the federal parliament, necessary information, current state of affairs, and matters relating to foreign affairs, the Prime Minister’s Office has consistently failed to do so. So it is important that both the prime minister and the president’s offices learn lessons from the past and keep their line of communication open at all times. That is how the notion of checks and balances is fostered between the two institutions. As a senior political leader, the onus lies on Paudel to take measures to develop the institution in line with the constitutional provisions. He should clean the legacy left behind by his predecessors and lead the Office of the President by example—free from controversy and always within the constitutional limits.

South Asian countries are plunging into economic crises one after another. The Sri Lankan economy is struggling to recover from a devastating debt crisis and its subsequent political fallout, while Pakistan’s economy is teetering on the brink of collapse. Nepal’s economy was sick before the Covid-19 pandemic due to continuous rise in imports and depleting internal production. And just as the country’s economy was getting back on track after the pandemic, it was knocked down again by the Russia-Ukraine war. To make matters worse, extreme weather patterns are also seriously hampering economic activities. Nepal’s crop output is failing. From buying groceries to energy, the cost of living is rising sharply, which has hit the low-income families the most. Meanwhile, businesses are also facing stress due to rising interest rates. Nepal’s economic growth rate has fallen further than it was during the Covid-19 pandemic. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics, the country’s economy grew by a meager 0.8 percent in the first quarter of the running fiscal year. Slump in construction, minimal growth in agriculture and slow manufacture are ruining the economy. As the crisis deepens, the government is struggling to strike a balance between income and expenditure. The federal budget was in a deficit of Rs 153.61bn as of March 5. A study conducted by the Confederation of Nepalese Industries shows that implementation of projects mentioned in the budget is sluggish, with zero progress in 36 economic sector programs. In order to save forex, the government imposed a ban on the import of so-called luxurious items, but the move backfired, hitting the revenue collection. If the situation deteriorates further, there is a risk of society descending to anarchy. Some elements have already launched a campaign of not paying interests on loans they have taken from financial institutions. So, addressing the economic crisis should be the number one priority of the government and political parties. Unfortunately, they are preoccupied with their own political agendas. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal has only just started consulting with economists on ways to save the economy from a free fall. Well, better late than never. Nepal’s economy has remained neglected by the political leadership for a long time now. This is mainly due to the lack of political stability in the country. In the previous government, there was animosity between the finance minister and the central bank governor. Coordination between the Ministry of Finance and Nepal Rastra Bank was affected, as the two agencies did not see eye to eye. Now, change in the coalition has left the ministry without leadership. Frequent transfer of secretaries has not helped, either. As of now, it remains uncertain when Dahal’s Cabinet will get its full shape. The incoming finance minister will have a lot of responsibility, so it is incumbent upon the prime minister to pick the right candidate—and not get caught in political seat-sharing. Senior economist Chandra Mani Adhikari says though Nepal’s economy cannot be compared with that of Sri Lanka and Pakistan, it is certainly heading toward a disaster. He says the political leadership should get serious and get to work without any delay. Internal investment is gradually decreasing, the state of foreign investment and assistance is going down, and almost all economic indicators are poor, says Adhikari. Remittance is the only thing that is keeping the economy alive, while there are some hopes from the tourism sector as well. Economists suggest that the government maintain austerity measures and take steps to increase domestic production. This is not a normal situation, so the political leadership should think differently. Economist Swarnim Wagle says instead of patch-up work, Nepal’s economy needs a serious surgical solution. Party and political issues have overshadowed the problems in the economy, he adds, while suggesting that the current crisis should be viewed in short-term, mid-term and long-term perspectives and addressed accordingly. Former vice-chair of National Planning Commission Govinda Pokhrel says the government should pay attention to increase the capital expenditure and decrease general expenditure. In order to decrease imports, he suggests the federal government should set an agricultural production target to each local government to reduce imports. To do all these things, Prime Minister Dahal should first appoint a strong finance minister who has a sound knowledge of the current state of the economy. He must act fast to prevent a looming economic disaster.  

Nepal’s political leadership pledging to conclude the long-drawn-out transitional justice process has just been about talking the talk. The Comprehensive Peace Agreement between the former rebel group, Maoists, and government was signed in 2006. That was 17 years ago, and the victims of the decade-long armed insurgency waged by the Maoists against the state are still clamoring for justice. When Nepal reaffirmed its commitment to conclude the transitional justice process at the ongoing 52nd session of the UN Human Rights Council last week, it sounded disingenuous to many people, particularly conflict victims. Then there was another glaring reason to look askance. The government of Nepal, led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist party, had sent Govinda Prasad Koirala to lead the Nepali delegation after barring Foreign Minister Bimala Rai Poudyal from attending the UN meet under way in Geneva. With the CPN-UML’s decision to pull out of the coalition government, the prime minister thought it would be unwise to send Poudyal, a minister from UML, to represent his government at the UN council. This last-minute change of plans also starkly showed the world the fluid political situation in Nepal. This incident came at a time when the international community is keenly watching the new government’s commitment to seeing through the transitional justice process. It didn’t help either that Prime Minister Dahal is one of the chief actors of the conflict in which more than 17,000 people were killed. In his address to the UN Human Rights Council, Koirala reiterated Nepal’s commitment to conclude the transitional justice process and provide justice and reparations to the victims. He said the new government would be guided by the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, directives of the Supreme Court and in line with Nepal’s international commitment on human rights. Koirala also informed the international community that the amendment proposal on Enforced Disappearance and Truth and Reconciliation Commission Act 2014 would soon be tabled in Parliament. It was noteworthy that Koirala, who previously served as minister of law during which he had made a tall claim of concluding transitional justice within six months, was trying to convince the UN member states that Nepal was on track to deliver justice to the conflict victims. The story of transitional justice at home is very different. The two transitional justice mechanisms — Truth and Reconciliation Commission, and Commission of Investigation on Enforced Disappeared Persons—are without their heads and office-bearers for eight months now. Successive governments have been extending the term of both commissions that are essentially toothless, without office bearers and resources. The new government under Dahal is being pressed by the international community to take concrete steps to settle the war-era crimes and cases of human rights violation. The Maoist prime minister also seems eager to conclude the peace process. But there is a distinct contrast in the way the two sides see the act of delivering justice. The Maoists want a reconciliatory approach while settling most of the cases and prosecuting only those incidents that are serious in nature. But the international community as well as the conflict victims strongly oppose such a plan. They are in favor of thoroughly screening all incidents and prosecuting them based on the nature of seriousness. Even Nepal’s Supreme Court is on the side of the victims on this one. The highest court in the land in its 2015 verdict has closed the door for blanket amnesty on serious cases and directed the government and political parties to accordingly amend the transitional justice act. The government in July last year came up with an amendment bill to the transitional justice act. While the proposed amendments were a slight improvement to the previous laws, they are still flawed in many ways. The amendment bill registered in Parliament is yet to be presented. But it has already generated enough talking points. The international community has cited several flaws including the wordings that make it possible to grant amnesty for certain gross violations of human rights, crimes against humanity, and war crimes. There is also the provision where the verdicts handed down by a special tribunal for transitional justice would not be subject to judicial appeal, which is in violation of international fair trial guarantees. Until major political parties of Nepal come together on the bill to amend the transitional justice act, it is unlikely to be endorsed by Parliament. And building a consensus on things that matter is an almost impossible task in Nepal. For the Nepali Congress and the UML, two other major political forces in Nepal, the transitional justice process has always been a bargaining chip to exploit the Maoists to serve their political interests. They are equally responsible for rendering the two transitional justice commissions powerless. The long overdue transitional justice process cannot be concluded on the whims of political parties. The two transitional justice commissions have collected 66,000 complaints from the conflict victims, but only some of these cases have so far gone through the preliminary investigation round. Once the complaints are recorded, they should be thoroughly investigated to satisfy the victims, which has not happened so far. Legal experts say it could take at least four to five years to conclude the transitional justice process, provided the two commissions are empowered with staff and resources. But Nepali political parties have always taken a wrong attitude to taking the peace process to its logical end. They think that with broad political consensus, the transitional justice process could be concluded overnight. The reality is they have turned this issue into a political weapon for their gains. No wonder they did not hold wider public consultation while coming up with transitional justice laws and showed reluctance to follow the Supreme Court’s verdict. In his address to the UN council, Koirala, on behalf of the Dahal government, conveyed the message of Nepal’s transitional justice process making progress. But if you asked the conflict victims, it has barely moved an inch. The longer the concerned parties and stakeholders delay the transitional justice process, things are likely to get more complicated. Take the latest Supreme Court’s direction concerning the prosecution of Prime Minister Dahal, for example. The court on Friday ordered its administration to register a writ petition against Dahal, who had claimed responsibility of 5,000 insurgency-related deaths at a public event some three years ago. Hearing a case filed by two advocates against the decision of the Supreme Court administration to reject their petitions last November, a division bench of justices Ishwor Prasad Khatiwada and Hari Prasad Phuyal has ordered the court administration to register their suits. Advocates Gyanendra Aaran and Kalyan Budhathoki, who are also conflict victims, had filed separate writ petitions to take legal action against Prime Minister Dahal, but the court administration had refused to do so, claiming that the issue was related to transitional justice. The Supreme Court’s decision has rattled Prime Minister Dahal and his party. They are crying foul over what they say is a conspiracy to corner them by bringing up the conflict-era cases, which ought to be dealt by the transitional justice commissions. But the Maoist party should know that they cannot forever hide behind the shield of transitional justice for their convenience whenever someone brings a case against them in the court of law. They have to put genuine commitment to empower the transitional justice mechanisms and respect their findings if they ever wish to put their violent history behind them. There is no two ways about it, the conflict victims deserve their long overdue closure. Or else, there will be more legal and political complications in the days to come.

December 25, 2022, was a black day for many Nepali Congress leaders and cadres. It was the day Pushpa Kamal Dahal, the leader of CPN (Maoist Center), walked out of the electoral alliance with the Congress and joined the CPN-UML to form a coalition government. Despite winning the largest number of parliamentary seats in the general election held in November, the NC suddenly found itself in the opposition. It was an unprecedented event. The pre-election coalition government of Congress and Maoists was poised to continue their partnership, or so it seemed until the morning of December 25. The two parties were hashing out a disagreement regarding which party gets to lead the government first. Before the election, Deuba had agreed to cede the prime minister’s office to Dahal. But the NC leader was reluctant to honor the agreement after the election results were out. After several rounds of negotiation ended in a stalemate, Dahal did the unexpected and went on to form a coalition with his archrival KP Sharma Oli of UML. The incident sent shock waves through the NC’s rank and file. There was widespread criticism against Deuba for breaking the coalition. Some party leaders even demanded his resignation as the party chief. Fearful of potential backlash, Deuba postponed the party’s Central Working Committee meeting and started damage control with his close aides. He deputed a team of leaders to dismantle Maoist-UML coalition and turn the political tide in the favor of NC. NC Vice-president Purna Bahadur Khadka, a close aide of Deuba, says their singular mission over the past two months was to engineer a rift between Dahal and Oli. It started with the party’s decision to give Prime Minister Dahal the vote of confidence in January. The move by the Congress leadership created a major dispute in the party. Leaders like Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma even registered notes of dissent against Deuba’s move terming it undemocratic, as it would render the parliament without an official opposition. But giving Dahal the trust vote was a masterstroke on Deuba’s part. The move not only drove a wedge between UML and Maoists, it also helped Deuba get an upper hand over the rival leaders within his own party. Khadka says now the Congress will now join the Dahal government as a key coalition partner and handle some key portfolios. Ramesh Rijal, central working committee member of NC, agrees that Deuba outdid his political rivals both inside and outside the party. He has effectively swatted aside his rivals in the party and gained more space to consolidate his power as an undisputed party head. Deuba’s supporters say the rival camps in the Congress have nothing against the party president now. They say even his strongest critics are now praising him.   The NC leader has also registered a personal victory by nominating his long-time rival Ram Chandra Poudel as a presidential candidate. Some party leaders say with Poudel out of the way, his supporters are bound to join the Deuba faction rather than the rival camp led by Shekhar Koirala. If anything, they say Deuba is likely to become more powerful. He has emerged out of the December 25 fiasco with more strength. Deuba even managed to convince his rivals including Koirala and Thapa to work together to break up the UML-Maoist government partnership and revive the pre-election coalition. Thapa had acted as an intermediary between Deuba and Dahal. It was the job of the Congress general secretary to convince the Maoist prime minister of a long-term partnership. Previously, Thapa was among the NC leaders who were against the idea of even forging an electoral alliance with the Maoist party. He now seems upbeat with the revival of the Maoist-NC coalition. He said Tuesday that Congress has realized its mistake and that the party was committed to work together with the Maoists. The path ahead, he added, was rocky and that the two parties must remain steadfast to continue the alliance for the next five years. One NC leader says it is a sign that Deuba’s decisions will prevail in the party from now on. Political analysts also agree that Deuba has emerged a major victor by steering the party back to power and silencing his rivals. Analyst Bishnu Dahal says Poudel’s nomination as a presidential candidate will prompt more party leaders to take a softer approach toward Deuba. As Deuba’s rival Poudel did not get anything, adds Dahal, but after he supported Deuba by standing down from the leadership race during NC’s 14th general convention in 2021, he got to become the presidential candidate. Dahal says to further enhance his position in Congress, Deuba could pick ministerial candidates from the rival camps in the party. Now that the NC has regained a semblance of unity, some party leaders say the party leadership should think about reforming its departments and sister organizations. In 2021, the party had pledged to hold a separate convention to decide the party’s ideological path but there has not been any progress. NC leader Nain Singh Mahar says this is a perfect opportunity to revitalize the party. The return to power should not put all party related activities on the back burner, he adds.

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal and his primary coalition partner KP Sharma Oli have fallen out after just two months. To the surprise of many, the two political rivals had joined hands to form a coalition government on December 25 last year. However, the premature end of their relationship was not at all surprising. Political analysts and media including this paper had anticipated the discord between Dahal and Oli. It was a matter of when, not if. This coalition government was formed on a weak foundation and fraught relationship between its two major partners, CPN (Maoist Center) and CPN-UML. Dahal, who became the prime minister despite his party coming third in the November 20 parliamentary election, was never comfortable working with the second-place UML, whose leader Oli was effectively pulling the strings of the government. Dahal’s ambition to lead the government had driven him toward Oli on December 25 when his pre-election coalition partner and electoral ally, Nepali Congress, refused him the prime minister’s seat. Before the parliamentary polls, the Maoist and Congress had agreed to share premiership, where each party would hold the post for 2.5 years. As per the agreement, Dahal was supposed to become the prime minister first. But the NC leader and former prime minister, Sher Bahadur Deuba, reneged on the deal after the party secured the most number of seats—albeit short of majority—in the House of Representatives. When Deuba insisted that as the leader of the largest party he was the natural claimant to the post of prime minister, Dahal did the unexpected and entered a power-sharing deal with Oli, who until then was considered his staunch rival. It was clear that Dahal reached out to Oli out of sheer desperation because he agreed to a power-sharing deal that largely favored the UML in the long run. In order to become a half-term prime minister, Dahal agreed to hand over the speakership, the presidency and the second-half term of premiership to the UML. As expected, Prime Minister Dahal started feeling the pressure from Oli from day one. Oli had greater control over which party got which ministry, and he even took charge of designing the government’s common minimum program. It was the Congress that came to Dahal’s rescue when the party, despite sitting in the opposition aisle, gave him the vote of confidence in January. That trust vote was a lifeline for Dahal who, having voted the UML candidate to the post of House speaker, was now under pressure to back the UML presidential candidate. Now, Dahal is back with the NC in a bid to revive the pre-election coalition—and curb the growing UML strength. For some, Dahal has served revenge against Oli by dishonoring the gentleman’s agreement on the presidential election slated for March 9. Dahal has done exactly what Oli did to him in 2019, when the latter refused to honor the agreement to hand over the reins of the erstwhile Nepal Communist Party (NCP), of which they were co-chairs, and the government leadership. There was already a severe trust deficit between Dahal and Oli. It started after 2019 with Oli trying to run the erstwhile NCP and the government without taking Dahal into confidence and trying to dissolve the parliament twice. Oli’s wayward attitude while running the party and the government led to the bitter break-up of the NCP. Soon after the Maoist and UML agreed to work together for the second time after the November election, Oli once again tried to exert pressure on Dahal. A senior Maoist leader says there was never an environment of trust between Dahal and Oli, which became even more apparent during the government formation process. Prime Minister Dahal was unhappy with the way two coalition partners, Rastriya Swatantra Party and Rastriya Prajatantra Party, were close to the UML, adds the leader. RSP leader Rabi Lamichhane was appointed the home minister at Oli’s insistence. And when Lamichhane was forced to resign over invalid citizenship, Oli had tried to reinstate him against Dahal’s wishes. The RPP, meanwhile, was creating trouble for the Dahal government by making statements against secular state and federalism. Another Maoist leader says Prime Minister Dahal was deeply regretful of having to lead a coalition with right-wing nationalist parties who were attacking and discrediting the constitution. Dahal himself has described the coalition of the past two months as a “bitter political experience”, which showed suspicion against the constitution. In recent weeks, Dahal has been deliberately keeping distance with RPP and RSP. He didn’t even consult the parties in power while forging an alliance with NC on the presidential election. The UML, meanwhile, has termed Dahal’s decision to back Congress’s presidential candidate a betrayal. Oli has called Dahal an opportunist who would go to any length to be in power. Political analysts say Dahal would have had no choice but to toe the UML’s line had it not been for the NC. They say the vote of confidence from the Congress was a turning point for Dahal, because it ensured the security of his government. The NC on its part also tried to convince Dahal to revive the pre-election coalition by agreeing to uphold his premiership, provided the party gets the presidency. With the largest party behind him, Dahal has also made efforts to get closer with his old allies such as CPN (Unified Socialist), Janata Samajbadi Party, Loktantrik Samajbadi Party and other fringe parties. Analysts say Dahal will be better off with parties that share common ideologies, unlike RSP and RPP. There were external concerns too. Ever since Dahal came to power, there has been a flurry of high-level visits from foreign powers, like the US, India and European countries. It is said the visiting high-level officials were concerned that the same party should not get the vital positions of the country. Prime Minister Dahal and his party, as well as the NC, were aware of the danger of the UML taking control of all vital institutions. For Dahal, it would have been a political suicide. He suspected that his government be paralyzed by the UML-nominated president, or worse, Oli could remove him. At this point, Dahal’s key priority is concluding the transitional justice process, and to do so, he believes that the NC’s democratic credential can play a vital role. It is also the only way out for Dahal’s Maoist party, which has been losing its political relevance and popularity since 2017. Political analysts say the prime minister seems to have weathered the storm for now. He will have to go through another round of vote of confidence in parliament and he will most likely hold his premiership. Then comes the hard part of striking the right kind of power-sharing deal at the center and provincial level among eight political parties.    

It’s a case of history repeating itself. The characters are the same, only their roles have been reversed. In 2019-20, it was like a daily routine for Pushpa Kamal Dahal to visit Baluwatar to remind the then Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli of the gentlemen's agreement between them on running the government and their party on equal basis. At the time, the two leaders were co-chairing the erstwhile Nepal Communist Party (NCP), formed after the merger between Oli’s CPN-UML and Dahal’s CPN (Maoist Center) in May 2018. But Oli’s refusal to honor the agreement with Dahal ultimately led to a vertical split in the party. These days, it is Oli who has been frequenting Baluwatar on an almost daily basis to meet Dahal, the current prime minister, to remind the latter of the gentleman's agreement reached on December 25 last year. As part of the power-sharing deal, Dahal had promised Oli, his primary coalition partner, to hand over the prime minister’s office after 2.5 years, and support UML’s speaker and presidential candidates. Since December 25 when Dahal became prime minister, there have been one-on-one meetings between two leaders more than 20 times. As agreed, Dahal’s party voted UML speaker candidate, Dev Raj Ghimire, to victory last month. But now the prime minister is not so keen about backing UML in the presidential election slated for March 9. Just like in the past, Dahal and Oli are drifting apart after coming together to form a government. On Thursday, too, Oli held a long and fruitless meeting with Dahal regarding the presidential election. The UML leader appears to be losing his hope and patience with the prime minister and his party. He doesn’t seem positive about the longevity of the current coalition. What will happen on March 9 is still unclear. There are speculations of repetition of 2008 presidential election when then Nepali Congress candidate, Ram Baran Yadav, despite being projected to lose the contest, won the presidency. The only thing clear at the moment is that some parties are mounting efforts to defeat the UML candidate at all costs. CPN (Unified Socialist) Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal made the intention clear when he said on Wednesday that giving one party the leadership reins of both houses of parliament as well as the presidency would spell disaster for the country. There is also an increasing chance of the current coalition breaking up. Just a few days earlier, NC General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa predicted that this coalition was bound to crack within a week. It is no secret that the NC, which was relegated to the opposition benches despite winning the most number of seats in the parliamentary election of November last year, wants to dismantle the Maoist-UML coalition partnership and form a new government under its leadership. That is why the NC gave its confidence vote to Prime Minister Dahal to the surprise of many. The trust vote from the opposition gave Dahal the greater latitude to bargain with Oli, the kingmaker in the current coalition. The safety net offered by the NC has given Prime Minister Dahal to take decisions that serve the interest of his party, like announcing a public holiday to mark the day the Maoist party began a decade-long armed insurgency. Deuba and Oli didn’t utter even a single word of criticism regarding the controversial public holiday decision, because they both want Dahal by their side. Prime Minister Dahal has not said clearly that he will not vote for the UML presidential candidate, but he has been calling for a national consensus candidate. If Oli and his party wish to keep this coalition intact, the best course would be to acquiesce to Dahal. The prime minister is under intense pressure from his own party, NC, CPN (Unified Socialist) and even ‘external forces’ to keep the UML out of the presidential race. They do not want UML’s monopoly in all key state institutions. Under the current power-sharing deal, the UML, which currently heads both houses of the parliament, is set to get the executive power after 2.5 years. And if the party were to get the presidency as well, it would dominate all vital positions, including the Constitutional Council that recommends appointments to key positions. Prime Minister Dahal is aware of this prospect, and his party leaders have also cautioned him against accepting UML’s presidential candidate, who will most likely be a loyalist of Oli. Some Maoist leaders are already putting pressure on Dahal to support the NC candidate instead. NC leaders are also frequently meeting Dahal for the same purpose. NC leader Sher Bahadur Deuba and his team are working closely to convince Dahal. Once the Maoist party comes up with an official position, the NC is likely to announce its presidential candidate. Ram Chandra Poudel and Krishna Prasad Sitaula are the front-runners in the presidential race from the NC.     But Dahal wants NC to come up with a long-term collaboration vision with the Maoist party. He has been in consultation with NC General Secretary Thapa, who has divergent views on some issues related to alliances. The UML and its leaders have already sensed that a conspiracy is afoot to deny presidency to the party. The party, however, is treading carefully, for it is in their interest to keep the coalition going. A political fallout with the Maoists means the UML will lose its power both at the center and in provinces. UML Secretary Lekhraj Bhatta says the party will come up with a candidate acceptable to all parties. He is optimistic that the current coalition will survive. Senior Maoist leaders like Narayan Kaji Shrestha and Barsha Man Pun are also in favor of keeping the coalition intact. But it is not Dahal’s decision alone that could keep the Maoist-UML together. Meanwhile, Madhes-based Janata Samajbadi Party and Loktrantrik Samajbadi Party are closely following the Maoist-UML relationship. According to some leaders, the Madhes-based parties could come up with their own presidential candidate. Prime Minister Dahal faces an acid test. He must bring all parties together and prevent the country from descending into yet another political tailspin.

Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra held marathon meetings with Nepali leaders and ministers during his two-day official visit to Kathmandu. As this was the first high-level visit from India following the formation of a new government in Nepal under Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Kwatra wanted to know first-hand the latest political situation in Nepal, including the upcoming election of the president. While officials from both Nepal and India have not mentioned anything about Kwatra’s message to the Nepali leaders, a senior NC leader said India is concerned about the upcoming presidential election in Nepal. The leader said India is also in favor of the NC and CPN (Maoist Center) coming together once again. A government source said although India is trying to stay neutral on the issue of Nepal’s presidential election, it does prefer a non-UML candidate. India in recent years has tried its best to keep out from the political affairs of Nepal. After Nepal promulgated a new constitution in 2015, India, for a couple of years, pressed Nepal’s major political parties to address the demands of Madhes-based parties. It also imposed an undeclared border blockade, only to see the move backfire in the form of rising anti-Indian sentiments among Nepali public, and parties like the UML cashing in on this feeling to win elections and take a pro-China approach. Indian officials say they have taken a policy of working with whichever party comes to power. Political analyst Vijaya Kanta Karna said the main purpose of Kwatra’s visit is to convey the message that India is ready to work with the new government led by Prime Minister Dahal. The visit, he added, also has a geopolitical significance because it came on the heels of a series of high-level visits from the US and China. Despite India’s so called hands-off approach on Nepal, India’s preference is not hidden. It wanted the continuation of the NC-led five-party coalition following the Nov 20 general election. During his stay in Nepal, Indian Foreign Secretary Kwatra met, among others, President Bidya Devi Bhandari, Prime Minister and Maoist Chairman Dahal, NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba, UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli, and CPN (Unified Socialist) Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal. Kwatra also set the tone for PM Dahal’s India visit, which is likely to take place after the presidential election scheduled for March 9. He tentatively discussed the possible agenda for Dahal’s visit. Kwatra also held an official meeting with his Nepali counterpart Bharat Raj Paudyal and reviewed various aspects of bilateral relations, including connectivity, trade and transit, power sector cooperation, agriculture, and education. India has stepped up connectivity projects in Nepal. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the two sides reviewed with satisfaction the progress made in connectivity projects such as railways, transmission lines, bridges and integrated checkposts. Nepal and India also discussed the early conclusion of the renewed transit treaty, review of the trade treaty, and convening of the inter-governmental committee on Trade (IGC) at an early date. Power trade between two countries also prominently figured in the bilateral talks. The ministry said the two sides expressed commitment to allowing the export of power from Nepal to India on a long-term basis by utilizing all products of the exchange market. Technical issues regarding the upgrading of cross-border transmission lines and early approval of the four proposed transmission line projects were also discussed. Foreign Secretary Paudyal also reiterated Nepal’s request for additional air-entry routes as well as early concurrence of the near-border flight operation of Gautam Buddha International Airport. As for boundary disputes between the two countries, including in Susta and Kalapani, there was no substantial discussion. The ministry said the two secretaries discussed boundary matters, where they exchanged views on completing the boundary works in the remaining segments through an established bilateral mechanism.