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The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectorial Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) marked its 26th anniversary on Tuesday. The regional organization, which serves as a bridge between South Asian and Southeast Asian countries, was founded on 6 June 1997 with the purpose of fostering regional cooperation.  The fifth summit of the BIMSTEC heads of state and government signed the BIMSTEC Charter only last year, which talks about creating an enabling environment for rapid economic development through identification and implementation of specific cooperation projects in the already agreed areas of cooperation. Out of seven BIMSTEC member-states, five of them are also part of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), namely Nepal, India, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. Some see BIMSTEC as a replacement to SAARC, which is in a state of moribund since nearly a decade due to the India-Pakistan dispute. One of the key SAARC member-states, India appears more inclined toward fostering BIMSTEC. For a long time, the regional body did not make any progress but once the SAARC went into hibernation after 2016, BIMSTEC started to make progress.  Nepal is a strong proponent of regionalism as it provides an opportunity to make its voices loud in the international arena. In his message, BIMSTEC Secretary General Tenzin Lekphell has said the adoption of the charter has provided necessary legal provisions to build more efficient and effective working methods for BIMSTEC to strengthen its institutional framework and form a meaningful partnership within the region. As BIMSTEC marks its 26 anniversary and looks forward to its sixth summit due to be held in Thailand later this year, the regional organization seeks to revisit and re-examine its working methods to better serve the people in the region through Eminent Persons’Group to put forth practical recommendation for the future of BIMSTEC, the Lekphell has said. Nepal’s Minister for Foreign Affairs NP Saud has highlighted the potentials of BIMSTEC in terms of natural resources, cultural heritage, tourism, trade and investment. On this occasion of the organization’s 26th anniversary, BIMSTEC heads of state and governments have expressed their commitment to pushing forward the BIMSTEC process. Pushpa Kamal Dahal,  PM of Nepal:  BIMSTEC has completed the journey of a quarter century since its establishment in 1997. The region is diverse in geography but closeness in cultural and civilizational values brings together the South and Southeast Asian countries for the meeting of the aspirations of about 1.6 billion people. With the adoption of BIMSTEC Charter and reconstitution of BIMSTEC areas of cooperation, the fifth summit of BIMSTEC has given a new momentum to the regional process. Now, our concerted efforts and solidarity for the implementation of all our decisions and commitments are instrumental for making the region prosperous, resilient, and sustainable. As an active member of BIMSTEC, we are delighted to lead the people-to-people contact as one of the important areas of cooperation and look forward to working with all members. The six summits, which will take place this year under the chairmanship of Thailand, will have extensive deliberations on connectivity and other projects. Sheikh Hasina, PM of Bangladesh:  As one of the founding members of BIMSTEC, Bangladesh places great importance to the BIMSTEC process for socioeconomic development of the region through collective endeavors in a spirit of equality and partnership. The ongoing economic crisis due to the Ukraine war has taught us a harsh lesson and the importance of a strong region is more felt than ever before. We need to work together to face these challenges. During the last 25 years of its existence, the organization has made some truly remarkable strides. It is encouraging to see that over this period, BIMSTEC has been able to create a number of crucial administrative and regulatory structures including having its charter which will certainly contribute to move the BIMSTEC process forward. As a founding member and a host of its secretariat, I reiterate our commitment to taking every step possible to further strengthen the BIMSTEC process forward. Lotay Tshering, PM of Bhutan: As we observe BIMSTEC Day, let us reflect on the strengths and potentials of our vibrant region. Together, we have achieved significant milestones in the various sectors including trade, investment, energy, transportation, tourism and cultural exchanges and making important headways in others. Our collective efforts have contributed to the development and prosperity of nations, benefiting our people. Let us look into a future with optimism and focus on further strengthening the BIMSTEC process in fulfilling our common goal of peace and prosperity in the region. Narendra Modi, PM of India: BIMSTEC framework is our commitment to creating an enabling environment for the rapid development of our region through joint endeavors in the spirit of equality and partnership. I am happy to note that we achieved a major milestone with the adoption of the BIMSTEC Charter last year. The Bay of Bengal has been a long-standing bridge between the people of BIMSTEC region. Our current efforts to have a maritime cooperation agreement and an agreement to facilitate the movement of motor vehicles across the region reinforces the importance of Bay for our collective security, connectivity and prosperity. I am confident that BIMSTEC countries will steadily move toward building a well-connected, more prosperous and a secure BIMSTEC region. Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of State Administration Council, Myanmar:  Myanmar joined BIMSTEC on 22 December, 1997 with shared aspirations of collective efforts for economic development during peace in the Bay of Bengal region. In the 26 years of its journey, BIMSTEC, a rule-based intergovernmental organization has been able to put its best foot forward in enhancing economic growth and prosperity in the region. I also have a firm belief that our commitments under the BIMSTEC mechanism brings stronger solidarity and friendship among the member states. Today, ramifications of Covid-19 and disruptions of global economic stability were unprecedented to the people around the world. I am confident that through our joint efforts, we can address those issues. Ranil Wickremesinghe, President of Sri Lanka:  BIMSTEC is indeed an important and meaningful organization, bringing the people and economics of South Asia and South East Asian region which are abundantly endowed with significant potential for economic development and enhancing the people-to-people contact. Bound by shared history and traditional cultural linkages, BIMSTEC has secured to be a prosperous regional grouping.  It is indeed gratifying to note that cooperation under the BIMSTEC banner has expanded in recent years. Sri Lanka remains committed to the founding principles embodied in the BIMSTEC charter and stands ready to work with other countries. Prayut Chan-o-Cha, PM of Thailand :  BIMSTEC has come a long way since the signing of the Bangkok declaration in 1997. The organization’s Silver Jubilee last year reflected that BIMSTEC has grown to become a cornerstone of regional cooperation in South and SouthEast Asia, creating an enabling environment for regional development and promoting economic growth. Through our collective efforts, we have made significant progress in a number of areas, notably in promoting regional integration, increasing trade and investment, improving transport and connectivity, enhancing security cooperation, and promoting people-to-people exchanges. Since assuming the chairmanship last year, Thailand has been committed and determined to work closely with all member-states to strengthen this regional organization.

It has been three months since Ram Chandra Paudel was elected the country’s head of state. In this period, he has tried to build a distinct image than of his predecessors.  Soon after his election, he won plaudits from the people and media for breaking away with the tradition of “royal carcade” during his travels. But then criticisms followed. The first one came with his decision to visit India for treatment. President Poudel was taken to task for spending taxpayers' money. After intense criticism, he later announced to foot his medical expenses on his own. But it is the latest controversy that has put President Poudel on the spot, and many have started to claim that he is no different from his predecessors, Dr Ram Baran Yadav and Bidya Devi Bhandari, whose presidential legacies were full of controversies. President Paudel’s decision to authenticate the divisive Citizenship Amendment Act right before Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s official India visit has been stayed by the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, opposition parties have obstructed the Parliament in protest of  Paudel’s move, while some legal eagles say the President’s decision to endorse the old bill violates the constitutional provisions. It was the same bill that was forwarded by the previous government and Parliament to the Office of the President during Bhandari’s tenure. However, former president Bhandari had refused to endorse the bill, expressing reservations over some of its provisions. And when the former government led by Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress forwarded the same bill to the Office of the President for the second time, Bhandari never got around to authenticating the bill, as per her constitutional duty, because the country went to the national elections in November 2022, and soon her term expired. President Paudel has courted controversy because there are no clear constitutional provisions on whether the new president can stamp the bill rejected by the previous president. Initially, Prime Minister Dahal had verbally asked President Paudel to authenticate the bill, but the latter refused to do so, saying the government should provide him a solid basis to endorse the bill. Soon after becoming president in March, Paudel had also consulted with some constitutional experts on the same matter, but their opinions were divided. Later, Prime Minister Dahal along with two former prime ministers Deuba and Madhav Kumar Nepal, and the law minister visited the president to put pressure on him to endorse ‘the controversial bill.’ Again, President Paudel asked the government for a legal basis that would allow him to authenticate the bill. The government then worked out a plan of tendering a formal request to the Office of the President for the endorsement of the bill. It was on the basis of this document, President Paudel signed the bill. Some constitutional experts say the bill is technically dead after the dissolution of the previous parliament and President Paudel cannot revive the bill that was in effect tossed away by the former president. But the Office of the President does not subscribe to this argument. Kiran Pokhrel, president’s press advisor, says President Paudel has not breached the constitution.  “The new President has corrected the mistakes committed by former President Bhandari,” he claims. “By endorsing the bill, he has upheld the supremacy of Parliament and the constitution.” Another senior advisor to President Paudel also dismissed the argument that the new president cannot endorse the bill, as it was passed by the previous House of Representatives (HoR).  “The constitution has not envisioned a legislative gap because the National Assembly is always there.  There is a provision of periodic election of the HoR or it could be dissolved but the upper House always remains there.” As far as the content of the bill is concerned, he says, it is the jurisdiction of political parties and Parliament to finalize the contents of any bill. Pokhrel says there has been a systematic campaign to create an illusion by some forces and people will ultimately know the truth. The timing of the authentication of the bill has also drawn suspicion. President Paudel authenticated the bill just before Prime Minister Dahal embarked on his official India visit on May 31. This was brought up by Rastriya Prajatantra Party Chairman Rajendra Lingden in Parliament on Sunday. “We are of the view that the issues related to citizenship should be addressed without any delay but the process adopted and timing of the endorsement is objectionable,” he told the Parliament. While Prime Minister Dahal too has acknowledged that the timing of the bill’s endorsement was inopportune, it is noteworthy that he had called on President Paudel just before his flight to New Delhi. Lingden has accused the major political parties of using the Office of the President for political benefits. Former Supreme Court justice Balaram KC says the experiences of other parliamentary democracies show that any bills that have been endorsed by both houses of parliament and sent to the president’s office can remain active until it is endorsed. “The new President should not return the bill to the House on the ground that the new parliament has come through the elections,” says KC “The bill is the property of the president’s office.” According to him, the Indian court has delivered a verdict that bills will turn passive if it is not endorsed by either upper or lower house, but the bill already forwarded to the president’s office remains active. Senior advocates Surendra Bhandari, Bal Krishna Neupane and Ishwari Bhandari in their petition have argued that the President encroached on the constitution by endorsing the bill passed by the previous parliament. They are of the view that the executive does not have exclusive power to forward the bill to the President and get it endorsed. The petitioners have argued that the due process has not been followed while endorsing the bill, and that it is against the principle of separation of powers. The ruling as well as Madhes-based parties have welcomed the President’s move, but the opposition parties such as CPN-UML, Rastriya Swatantra Party and Rastriya Prajatantra Party have protested it. UML leader Yogesh Bhattarai has said the President is also a part of Parliament and he must therefore keep the dignity of the Parliament.  But, political analyst Vijaya Kanta Karna disagrees. “Had the President not endorsed the bill, it could have set a precedent that presidents are not obliged to authenticate the bill forwarded by parliament and government, and other bills in the future could face the same fate.” There are also arguments that the Cabinet cannot recommend the President to endorse the bill, it is the jurisdiction of Parliament to forward the bill to the Office of the President for authentication. Legal experts who hold such views say that the Cabinet can only forward ordinances to the President, not bills. The new issue has divided the political parties and legal fraternity and the case has reached the court. There are already five cases filed against former President Bhandari’s refusal to authenticate the bill pending in the Supreme Court. Earlier, KP Sharma Oli-led in May 2021, had introduced an ordinance on the same issue but the apex court directed the government not to implement the ordinance. Now, it is up to the Supreme Court to clear current constitutional ambiguities interpreting the constitutional provisions related to bills. The passage of the bill has paved the way for around 400,000 people to apply for citizenship. The Citizenship Act 2006 allowed everyone born in Nepal before 1990 to acquire citizenship by birth, but their children who now are eligible to get citizenship are deprived of it. The amended provision in the bill paves the way for such people who have not been able to apply for Nepali citizenship.

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal has claimed that his recent India visit made progress on some key bilateral issues.  For the first time since the map row erupted between the two countries in 2019, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi acknowledged that boundary dispute in a press conference. This acknowledgement, according to Dahal, was an indication of a commitment from the political level to find a possible way out to settle the dispute. Every prime minister-level visit between Nepal and India provides an opportunity for a frank exchange of views and concerns. Prime Minister Dahal’s India visit was no exception. This time too, Dahal and his Indian counterpart Modi held candid discussions on all outstanding issues between the two countries. The Indian side said in a statement that the ‘two sides held productive discussions, which helped to widen the understanding perspective on a wide range of bilateral agendas and gave a robust direction to take the deep-rooted partnership forward.’ PM Dahal has said that candid and open discussion between two sides helped to build an environment of trust. The only concern for Nepal was that Prime Minister Dahal didn’t think about setting an institutional memory of his visit and meetings with the Indian side by choosing to discuss the bilateral issues in the absence of foreign minister or officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In some respects, the visit was different from the previous ones. This time, bilateral talks were more focused on economic and development partnership, said former Nepali ambassador to India Lokraj Baral. "The visit has been largely successful because Modi has shown positive gestures on key issues, and unlike past visits, PM Dahal’s visit gave more importance to the development agenda which is a key foundation of bilateral issues," Baral said. Political analyst Bishnu Dahal said India appears to have abandoned the policy of micromanagement in Nepal and is now focusing more on energy, water and other cooperation issues.  "The changing geopolitical situation may have prompted New Delhi to change the pattern of relationship with Nepal." One of the key outcomes of the visit was progress on energy cooperation. The two countries finalized an agreement for a long-term power trade, where India has pledged to import 1000 MW of electricity from Nepal within ten years. The two sides must sign a formal document on power trade as soon as possible and address other remaining issues related to export to India. India and Nepal have also signed memorandum of understanding (MoUs) on Lower Arun and Phukot-Karnali hydroelectric projects. Similarly, India has agreed to purchase 1200 MW of electricity, including 456 MW Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Project. Similarly, two sides have reached an agreement on the constructions of transmission lines. Geopolitical analyst Bijaya Kanta Karna said the agreement on the power sector is vital because it has ended the long-standing uncertainty of the electricity market that Nepal produces. "India has agreed to buy the electricity which means more investment will come to Nepal in the hydropower sector," he said. Likewise, the two prime ministers also inaugurated some projects and oversaw the signing of several MoUs. Nepal and India also renewed the Transit Agreement which will allow Nepal to use inland waterways of India for the shipments of goods from third countries.  In 2019, India had agreed to provide three inland waterways, which has become a key component of the transit agreement. India has been providing more transit points after Nepal signed a transit agreement with China in 2016. According to Karna, the agreement on the transit is vital as it allows Nepal's own shipment from Kolkata port to the border. There have also been some positive discussions on exporting Nepali hydropower to Bangladesh via India, though many things are yet to be done. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, India has decided to facilitate the first trilateral power transaction from Nepal to Bangladesh, through the Indian grid with an export of 40 MW electricity. There has to be trilateral talks for this power trade agreement to take shape. Pancheshwor Multipurpose Development Project was also one of the key agendas of Dahal’s India visit. The agreement to finalize the detailed project report (DPR) within the next three months and ensure financial arrangement within a year was a positive development. It must be noted though that there has always been positive talks at the political level. The hurdle lies at the bureaucratic level. Nepal has also requested for non-reciprocal access to its agricultural and primary products to the Indian market. To this end, the two prime ministers have directed for early convening of commerce-secretary level meeting to address the issues related to trade and to review the trade treaty. Similarly, the two countries agreed to push other economic and development partnership issues including the key connectivity projects. Three prominent talking points that used to be at the center of every prime minister’s visit — Eminent Persons’ Group (EPG) report, border dispute, and 1950 Peace and Friendship Treaty — didn’t find a prominent space during Dahal’s India visit. Probably, for the first time after 2016, the issue of EPG was skipped during bilateral meetings. Prime Minister Dahal later said that “he didn’t want to spoil the environment” by raising the EPG issue with the Indian side. So, it seems that the issue of the EPG and 1950 treaty is almost over. While the border issue did figure during the one-on-one meeting between Dahal and Modi, there was no official level talks. Another keenly watched issue was Prime Minister Dahal’s visit to Mahakaleshwar temple in Madhya Pradesh, highlighting the strong cultural ties between India and Nepal. Dahal, a Maoist leader who has never visited Hindu temple in Nepal and whose party targeted Sanskrit education during the insurgency era, offered prayers at the Mahakaleshwar temple. This out-of-character gesture from Prime Minister Dahal was significant, as Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its affiliate organization, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, have been urging Nepali leaders to take measures to protect the Hindu religion. BJP leaders are of the view that the Hindu religion in Nepal is being attacked in the disguise of secularism. But, Prime Minister Dahal defended his move by saying that he was not just a communist leader but the prime minister of Nepal, and his refusal to visit the temple could have hurt the sentiment of 1.4 billion people of India. Apart from bilateral ties, Nepal and India also discussed the ‘regional environment’ mainly focusing on China’s growing military, political and economic influence in the smaller countries, including Nepal. According to officials, the two sides discussed how China’s rise is affecting Nepal-India ties. Of late, China’s growing influence in Nepal has been a major concern for India.  Of late, Indian officials are prominently raising their security concerns in Nepal.  Overall, Dahal’s India visit was an indication that the bilateral relationship between Nepal and India is gradually heading towards normalization.  The economic and development partnership has gained momentum. Analyst Karna said the visit is a departure from past visits because of the agreement achieved in the areas of energy cooperation, connectivity and other development projects.  But many of the agreements have been reached at the prime minister’s level which needs to be finalized at the bureaucratic level. To do so, both sides should maintain and nurture an environment of trust. They must avoid possible irritants, especially at a time when the regional environment is very fragile, and could anytime spoil the bilateral relations.

Nepal and India have agreed to put economic and development partnership at the center of their bilateral engagement, apparently downplaying the key contentious issues such as border dispute, 1950 Peace and Friendship Treaty and EPG report. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal who is on four-day official visit to India, held bilateral talks with his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi. During the talks, the two sides signed seven agreements and made understanding on several issues, including trilateral power cooperation between Nepal, India and Bangladesh. If the agreements are implemented on time, they will substantially boost economic and development partnership between the two countries. According to officials, the discussions between two sides was focused on enhancing development partnership mainly in the areas of connectivity and infrastructure development. Speaking at a press conference after talks between Modi and Dahal, Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra said during the restrictive and delegation-level talks there was no mention of border dispute, EPG report, 1950 treaty and on Agnipath. However, both Dahal and Modi briefly touched upon the boundary issues without any further elaboration during their joint address. We will resolve all the issues, be it boundary related or any other issues, Modi said. Dahal also said that issues related to boundaries would be resolved through established mechanisms. The two countries have signed several agreements in the power cooperation sector (see full report page 5), a prominent agenda of bilateral talks. PM Dahal and Modi also discussed Nepal's relationship with China and Nepal’s reported preparations to buy military hardware from China. The two leaders briefed each other about their country’s relationship with China. Asked about the China issue, Indian Foreign Secretary Kwatra, in the press conference, said: "When it comes to the vital developments in the region (read China), naturally two prime ministers did discuss the development in the region and what challenges they pose to India-Nepal bilateral relations and what should be done to mitigate those challenges.” The two countries have signed seven agreements. One of them is renewal of the transit agreement between two countries which has paved the way for Nepal to use waterways for the shipments of goods from third countries. Indian PM Modi said transit agreements have been signed today and the two countries have established new rail links to increase physical connectivity. Likewise, the two prime ministers inaugurated the Integrated Check Post(ICP) at Nepalgunj (Nepal)-Rupaidihya (India). The two countries also signed an agreement for the phase-2 Motihari-Aklekhgunj petroleum pipeline project, Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for the development of 480 MW Phukot-Karnali Hydro-electricity Project, and Project Development Agreement (PDA) for 679 MW Lower Arun Hydro-electricity Project. On Pancheswhor Multi-purpose development project, two countries have agreed to finalize the detailed project report (DPR) within next three months and decide on the investment modality. It has been 27 years since the two countries signed the Mahakali Treaty but it is yet to be implemented. Experts have provided mixed reactions regarding the outcome of the visit. Rajan Bhattarai, foreign affairs advisor to former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, said the PM’s visit failed to make concrete progress on minimizing trade imbalance, contributing to the tourism sector, ensuring air routes for newly constructed airports, and opening Indian markets for Nepali agriculture products. There was also no progress on some outstanding issues such as EPG and boundary dispute. Deep Kumar Upadhyay, former Nepali Ambassador to India, said the success of the visit shall be measured on the basis of the implementation of those agreements.  “Without intervention from the political level, it is very hard to implement the agreements reached between the two countries,” he said. Project handover, inauguration

• Handing over of Kurtha-Bijalpura section of railway line
• Inaugural run of an Indian railway cargo train from Bathnaha (India) to Nepal Customs Yard, a newly constructed rail link under Indian grant
• Inauguration of Integrated Checkposts (ICPs) at Nepalgunj (Nepal) and Rupaidiha (India)
• Groundbreaking ceremony of ICPs at Bhairahawa (Nepal) and Sonauli (India)
• Groundbreaking ceremony of phase-II facilities under Motihari-Amlekhgunj Petroleum Pipeline
• Groundbreaking ceremony of Indian portion of Gorakhpur-Bhutwal Transmission Line being built by a JV of PGCIL and NEA

MOU exchange 

• Treaty of Transit between the Government of India and the Government of Nepal

• MoU between the Government of India and the Government of Nepal for cooperation in the field of Petroleum Infrastructure

• MoU between the Government of India and the Government of Nepal for the development of infrastructure at Dodhara Chandani check post along India-Nepal border
• MoU between Sushma Swaraj Institute of Foreign Service (SSIFS) and the Institute of Foreign Affairs, Nepal
• MoU between NPCIL and NCHL, Nepal for cross border payment
• Project Development Agreement of Lower Arun Hydroelectric Project
• MoU between NHPC and VUCL, Nepal for the development of Phukot- Karnali Hydroelectric Project

PM Dahal Prime Minister Modiji and I discussed the boundary matters. I urged Prime Minister Modiji to resolve the boundary matters through the established bilateral diplomatic mechanisms.  I commended the role played and initiatives taken by Prime Minister Modi ji during India’s G20 Presidency as well as SCO Chairmanship, including for giving voice to the issues of concerns to the global south. Nepal is happy to join India’s multilateral initiatives of the International Solar Alliance and more recently the International Big Cat Alliance. We would like to have regular flights from Nepal’s newly built international airports of Bhairahawa and Pokhara to and from various cities of India. PM Modi Nepali PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal and I had productive talks on the progress in India-Nepal relations over the last few years and ways to deepen this cooperation even further, key sectors like commerce, energy, culture and infrastructures featured prominently in the discussions.  9 years ago, I had talked about the HIT friendship between India-Nepal relations– Highways, I-ways, and Trans-ways. Our partnership has bloomed since and we want to make our partnership a Superhit which is what these projects will achieve.  

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is visiting India from May 31, his first abroad trip after assuming office on 25 Dec 2022.  The much-awaited visit was delayed primarily due to two key reasons: first due to the fluid political situation at home, and the second due to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s busy schedule. The Indian prime minister has just returned from Japan after participating in the Quad Leaders’ Summit. Over the past couple of years, India has been in the focus of global powers. In December last year, it assumed the G20 presidency and is preparing to convene the G20 leaders’ summit for the first time. India is also set to  host Quad Leaders’ Summit later this year. Prime Minister Dahal’s India visit will be meaningful amid growing US-China rivalry, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and  China and Russia coming closer for a shared objective of weakening the US global dominance. The Western bloc sees India as a counterweight to China’s influence in the South Asian region, and has come up with a series of policy and institutional measures to contain China’s growing military and economic influence in the smaller countries of this region. Meanwhile, after the Western sanctions, Russia too is looking at Asia to expand its trade and business, with India at the center. So far, India, one of the biggest powers in Asia, and other small countries of the Global South have refused to join bloc politics. They have taken a neutral and independent position on the Russia-Ukraine war. India, for example, continues to engage with Russia regardless of the criticisms from the Western powers. India’s economy is in the sixth position behind the US, China, Japan, Germany, and the UK, but it is poised to become the third largest economy, overcoming other powers. And as India increases its engagement with global powers, its top political level has little time to engage with small Asian countries, including its neighbors like Nepal. It takes several months for envoys of South Asian countries to even get to pay a courtesy call to Indian Minister for External Affairs S Jaishankar. Through the G-20 presidency, India wants to shape global debates, says strategic analyst Binoj Basnyat. He adds India’s ambition to lead the Global South is evident in its influence in global political affairs and increased engagements with political-economic-security groupings like the Quad, BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the G7, G20 and ASEAN. Though the “neighborhood first” policy remains at the core of Nepal-India relationship, Basnyat says it is also important to acknowledge India’s expanding engagements with West Asia, East Asia and Far-East Asia. Prime Minister Dahal should be well-informed about where the world and Asia is heading when he holds talks with his Indian counterpart Modi. The Nepal government should be clear about where it stands amid the changing geopolitical landscape. The clarity of vision also applies when dealing with other powers like China and the US. Countries like Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Germany, among others, have come up with their own Indo-Pacific visions as per US’ Indo Pacific Strategy. India is already a member of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. Will Prime Minister Dahal consider this changing global scenario and changing India when he sits for dialogue with Indian leadership? This time too Foreign Minister Narendra Saud has continued the customary practice of seeking suggestions from former foreign ministers and experts for the prime minister’s India visit. Obviously, Nepal and India have some long-standing issues such as border dispute and EPG (Eminent Persons’ Group) report that should get due priority when the two sides sit for a meeting during Dahal’s India trip. But Nepal should also look beyond these issues to foster a more dynamic relationship with India. Prime Minister Dahal should be able to present Nepal’s vision on how Nepal wants to take the economic benefit from India’s rise and changing global environment. For instance, Bangladesh has come up with the Indo-Pacific Outlook outlining guiding principles and objectives. The document recognizes the stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific as a crucial factor in realizing Bangladesh’s vision 2041. Nepal could make a similar vision on the Indo-Pacific which does not mean that Nepal should join the US' Indo-Pacific Strategy. The Quad Leaders’ Summit has come up with several initiatives and projects for the Indo-Pacific region. Nepal should be able to present its position through India. Likewise, Japan has shown greater interest to invest in the infrastructure of South Asia, which is an opportunity for Neap. Japan and Nepal can work jointly in connectivity projects including roads, railways and waterways. Nepal must have a concrete plan on how it will execute and use such projects for greater economic cooperation. South Korea has also shown its interest to engage with Nepal under its Indo-Pacific Strategy. Nepal and India can sign a long-term comprehensive economic cooperation in this regard. Nepal is going through an economic recession, unemployment rate is surging, and foreign investment is dwindling. In this scenario, Nepal should be able to lay out a clear vision on how it wants to engage with India on the economic front, instead of just seeking assistance for some development projects. Of late, there has been some progress on connectivity projects but there is no plan on how we are going to use those connectivity projects.  Similarly, the Nepal government needs to make preparations with how it is going to engage with Indian states that share borders with Nepal. India has already adopted a policy of competitive federalism which means Indian states compete with each other in attracting foreign investments and Nepal can take benefit from those Indian states. There should be introspection on how Indian investment is not coming to Nepal and why multinational companies are hesitating to invest. Until now, unskilled manpower and seasonal workers have been going to India for employment. Now, we can request India to provide certain quotas for skilled workers. Thousands of students who studied in India and Western universities could get high paying jobs in the Indian market. There has been good progress on energy cooperation between Nepal and India, but many issues are yet to be settled. Nepal has a high potential of contributing to the entire South Asia for clean energy. For that to happen, there is a need for collaboration between Nepal and India. India is the current chair of G20 and it is an opportunity for Nepal to make its voice heard at the international level. For instance, the impact of climate change on the Himalayas is an urgent issue of Nepal on which global attention is required. Nepal can ask India to make this one of the key agenda of G20. But Nepal’s plans and visions are unlikely to figure during Dahal’s India visit. It is already clear that his visit will revolve around the same old agendas, and that Prime Minister Dahal will most likely use the trip as an opportunity to cement his power. It is already too late to come up with a vision on how Nepal is going to engage with new India and other powers. .The same point is applicable with China, because Nepal is not prepared to take benefits from China’s rise. Many scholars have already started talking about G3 which means the US, India and China will shape the new world order. Uddhab Pyakurel, associate professor at Kathmandu University, says confusion in understanding Nepal’s geo-political reality has remained the main challenge for Dahal and his party. As the Maoist party has never been rational when dealing with Nepal’s immediate and distant neighbors, he adds to expect a major development in Nepal-India relations out of Prime Minister Dahal’s upcoming visit would be a folly.

Russia has submitted a written proposal at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, seeking to enhance ties with Nepal at multiple levels, from high-level political engagements to infrastructure development projects. The document, which was seen by ApEx, expresses Russia’s readiness to increase its assistance to Nepal and talks about the new areas of the cooperation between the two countries. The document was prepared on the basis of talks held by National Assembly Chairman Ganesh Prasad Timalsina with the Russian officials during his visit to Russia in April. Geopolitical experts say Russia reaching out to Nepal is part of its wider Asia policy of expanding ties with all big and small countries to withstand Western sanctions. Most recently, the G7 nations decided to put more sanctions on Russia as it continues to wage a war with Ukraine. Nepal had voted against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but it continues to engage with Moscow diplomatically. Though engagement with Nepal is not going to contribute significantly for Russia to withstand the Western sanctions, Moscow has nevertheless stepped up its engagement with Nepal. Experts say this may be due to Nepal’s strategic geopolitical location. Nepal’s Ambassador to Russia Milan Tuladhar says Moscow’s renewed interests to step up engagement with Nepal must be seen as an opportunity. Russia has shown interest in providing financial assistance to construct roads in Pokhara and increasing the education quota for Nepali students from the current 18 to 150-200, according to the document. Direct deliveries of oil products, direct air flight between Kathmandu and Moscow, delivery of Russian helicopters, construction of the Russian Buddhist temple in Lumbini and direct investment from Russia are other areas that Russia has proposed Nepal. If Nepal makes a formal request, according to Tuladhar, Russia is also willing to provide fertilizer to Nepal. Almost every year, Nepali farmers face a shortage of chemical fertilizer for their crops. Ambassador Tuladhar says Russia can address this chronic problem. Russia has also offered to resume direct flights between the cities of two countries to enhance trade and tourism. If there is a direct flight, the number of Russian tourists will substantially increase, says Tuladhar. Geopolitical analyst Chandra Dev Bhatt says Nepal-Russia relationship has a long history and cordial relationship since the Cold War era.  Now, Russia is returning to South Asia after 30 years, engaging with all countries primarily focusing on new geopolitical flashpoints including Kathmandu, he adds. Amid pressure from Western countries to denounce Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Chairman of National Assembly Timalsina visited Russia in April. It was the first high-level visit from Kathmandu to Moscow after the Russia-Ukraine war, and first parliamentary delegation visit to Russia after 2016. During the visit, Timalsina also extended an invitation to Russian lawmakers to visit Kathmandu. In an interview with Russian news agency TAAS, Timilsina said he was expecting to host a high-level visit this year by Russian lawmakers Valentia Matviyenko, Valentina Matviyenko, speaker of the Federation Council (upper house of parliament), and Vyacheslav Volodin, speaker of the lower house State Duma. Timalsena added that Kathmandu was expecting that the visit would help boost Nepal-Russia trade. Khadka KC, professor of international relations, says Russia of late Russia has adopted an appeasement policy regarding Nepal. By making some offers, he adds it seems that Russia is trying to seek Nepal’s support in the international forum.  Russian proposal

•         Fertilizer
•         Direct flights between Moscow and Kathmandu
•         Russian helicopters
•         High-level visits
•         People-to-people engagement
•         Increase of scholarship quota
•         Cooperation in international platforms

The top leaders of major political parties are incorrigible lots. They can’t change if their life depended on it. It’s a pathology of sorts, which, if left untreated, can sink their parties. The writing has been on the wall for several months. The first sign was the general elections outcome of November last year, when the newly formed Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) emerged as a moderate political force and the pro-monarchy right-wing Hindu force Rastriya Prajatantra Party also made a comeback. The two parties decreased the size of mainstream political parties: Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center). More tellingly, none of these parties could secure a simple majority in the federal parliament; this was despite the Congress and Maoists forging an electoral alliance. After the election, the major parties remained busy in forming and breaking the ruling coalition. It showed where their priority lay. They wanted power and the people wanted political stability. No wonder, the government formed under Pushpa Kamal Dahal failed to instill hope in people, particularly at a time when the country was staring at a serious economic crisis. Then came the results of the by-election, in which the RSP secured resounding wins in two (Tanahun-1 and Chitwan-2) of the three constituencies where the polls were held on April 23. The margin with which the traditional parties lost the election was yet another clear indication that the people are deeply frustrated with the old guard. The latest incident that could put Nepal’s major parties to the sword is the fake Bhutanese refugee scam involving top political leaders, their close relatives and aides, among others. Nepal Police has so far arrested former home minister and NC leader Bal Krishna Khand and former deputy prime minister and CPN-UML secretary Top Bahadur Rayamajhi for their alleged involvement in the case. The scandal has been termed by many as a state-sponsored human trafficking case, and there is a widespread suspicion that the leaders of the three major parties—Prime Minister Dahal, Congress leader Sher Bahadur Deuba, and UML leader KP Oli—are trying to influence the police investigation. The trio has been meeting on an almost regular basis. As public anger and suspicion continue to grow against major political parties, youth leaders find themselves in a bind. They want to reform their parties, but their bosses are adamant to change. More than Dahal, Deuba and Oli, it is the youth leaders that seem worried about the future of their respective parties. The next generation leaders of these three major parties fear that Nepali voters will punish them in the 2027 general elections. Their apprehension is valid, given that scores of youth members from their parties are defecting to the RSP. While the UML has decided to launch a campaign to attract youths to the party and become the largest party in 2027, it appears to be a far-fetched dream. The popularity of RSP that started in urban centers is catching up in rural Nepal, which could potentially affect the UML’s campaign. The Nepali Congress seems to be in the most difficult position. Some youth leaders have already started a drive to reform the party. General secretary duo of the party, Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma, have warned of a revolt against the incumbent leadership, but they know that Deuba is too powerful. The dilemma of Thapa and Sharma is that they cannot leave the party, nor do they have hope that Deuba will change. The NC has not even suspended Khand from the party, which has further eroded the party's image and credibility. A senior NC leader says: “Probably for the first time, President Deuba is serious about the party's future and his own image. But he is still not ready to give up his position and pave the way for the younger generation to lead the party.” The CPN (Maoist Center), meanwhile, is trying to gain some sympathy votes with the Dahal governemnt prosecuting the accused in the fake Bhutanese refugee scam. But that will happen only if the leadership of Prime Minister Dahal showed the grit to investigate and prosecute all politicians and senior government officials involved in the case. The Maoist party is already weak, with just 32 seats in the federal parliament, and its organization is in a mess. Instead of strengthening the party, many say Dahal is busy building his personal image. It is not lost on the people that UML leader Rayamajhi, who is currently in police custody in connection with the refugee scam, and former home minister and another UML leader Ram Bahadur Thapa, who has also been linked to the case following the arrest of his son, were both former Maoist party leaders. Bishnu Rijal, a youth leader from the UML, doesn’t agree that the old political parties are losing their relevance, though he admits that they should change their ways. “The major political parties of Nepal have a long history, they have a sound ground and they must have a clear vision for the future.” He doesn’t believe the new parties like the RSP have a long-term future. “They are carrying populist agendas, whereas we have a robust system that is capable of filtering our politicians.” He went on to claim that Rayamajhi and Khand got arrested because their parties had robust systems in place. The emergence of RSP has also renewed the call for unity among communist parties of Nepal. The CPN (Unified Socialist) and CPN (Maoist Center) are already in talks to explore ways for the possibility of unification. Talks are also underway between second-rung leaders of CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center) for possible collaboration—if not unification. If that happens, the Congress party will once again find itself in a fix. The grand old party that espouses democratic values is already losing its support base to the RSP. There is a choice for Dahal, Deuba and Oli: Make way for next generation leaders or leave behind horrible legacies.

Nepal is a text-book example of how a messy domestic policy paralyzes the external policy. The country has been caught in chronic political instability since 1990. There was a glimmer of hope for stability after Nepal promulgated a new constitution in 2015 and held its  first general elections in 2017. It was not to be. Even when two key communist parties—CPN-UML and CPN(Maoist) Center—came together in 2018 to form the erstwhile Nepal Communist Party (NCP) and the most powerful government in the modern history of Nepali politics, stability proved elusive for Nepal.  Whatever hopes and optimisms people had were shattered when the NCP suffered a split. In fact, the situation got worse after the party breakup, as the prime minister at the time, KP Sharma Oli of UML, tried to dissolve a democratically elected parliament. The singular mission of all major political parties in Nepal has been to grab power by any means. They are ready to compromise their political values and ideologies and align with any party, so long as they can rule the roost. Good governance, service delivery, economic development and effective foreign policy have never been on their priority list. It is no secret that Nepal’s political parties see international relations through the prism of party interests. That is why they have no qualms about putting on hold important issues related to major countries. When it comes to the conduct of foreign policy, a key problem that Nepal faces today is from the government itself. The recent governments have all come in the form of rainbow coalitions, of parties representing various ideologies and worldviews. They cannot find a common ground when it comes to foreign policy. As general elections in November last year delivered more fractured verdict, as not a single party could muster a simple majority. In such a case, four to five parties have to come together in order to form a government. It is hopeless to expect such a government to deliver both on national and international fronts. There are just too many clashing interests and ideologies. Already, the current dispensation under Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is losing its popularity. It could collapse anytime if the fringe parties in the coalition were to pull out their support. Every major party in Nepal has its own opinion on how the country should conduct its foreign policy and diplomatic relations. Take a small but meaningful issue that is mentioned in the Common Minimum Program of the current government. While preparing the document, there were differences among the ruling parties on the issue of border disputes. While the Nepali Congress wanted to clearly mention the alleged border dispute with China, the CPN (Maoist Center) wanted to leave China out. Finally, the two parties agreed to mention in the document that border disputes with neighbors will be resolved through diplomatic channels. No names were named, neither China nor India, with whom Nepal shares contested boundaries. It is a clear indication that the political parties in Nepal do not take the border issue seriously. They would rather avoid bringing up the issue at all, lest it should create a controversy. There is also a huge gulf between Nepali Congress and communist parties on how to deal with India, US and China. They fear that taking a clear and firm position will spoil the party relationship with these countries. Here is another example of Nepal’s messy foreign policy. Nepal sent Foreign Minister NP Saud to attend King Charles’ recent coronation ceremony after President Ram Chandra Poudel canceled his visit owing to his illness. Most of the countries had sent their heads of state or government to the event, but the Nepal government chose to send the foreign minister. It didn’t even consider sending the Vice President. Over the past few years, foreign direct investment is dwindling. As political stability is nowhere in sight, and successive governments have failed to improve legal and procedural hurdles to attract foreign investment. Though the government is preparing to convene an investment summit, it is unlikely to bring any changes. Unless there is an improvement in Nepal’s political atmosphere, foreign investors are not going to make investments in Nepal. Foreign countries have no trust in Nepal’s system, nor its institutions. That is why an increasing number of foreign ambassadors are seen meeting ministers, secretaries and politicians to get things done and to convey their message. And there is a huge gap between what our politicians tell foreign diplomats and what they do in practice. Nepali political parties and their leaders have been known to trump up fear of foreign invasion among the masses by deliberately mischaracterizing foreign-led programs. The US Millennium Challenge Corporation is a case in point. Some politicians took separate positions in the street and in meetings with American officials on the issue of endorsing the program through Parliament. Recently, a Kathmandu-based senior diplomat said that Nepali politicians speak one thing and do the other. With the ongoing Bhutanese refugee scam, the infamy of Nepal and Nepali political parties will further deepen. The Ministry of Home Affairs, which is one of the important ministries, is caught in the scandal. Former home minister Balkrishna Khand is facing investigation in a grand fraud incident, where hundreds of Nepalis were swindled of millions of rupees by promising to send them to the US as Bhutanese refugees. A former home secretary has also been implicated in the scam. The incident has tarnished the image of the ministry. In this scenario, how can we convince the foreign powers that their secrecy is maintained and their security interests are protected? We do not have an immediate solution to the political instability because the parties are not ready to amend the constitution and change the electoral system. Does it mean foreign policy will have to suffer even more in the coming years?  We can reduce the damages if we are serious about building institutions and systems. The Office of the Prime Minister and the Council of Ministers, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other institutions need to mend ways. Similarly, major parties should immediately shun the policy of exploiting the issues related to other countries to advance their interests. So far, they have shown no signs of improving their conduct. To deal with complex geopolitical situations, Nepal needs vibrant state institutions, but we are experiencing just the opposite. Our state intuitions are turning dysfunctional and they are losing their credibility.