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Kathmandu Mayor Balendra Shah faces a contempt of court case for a social media post denouncing Patan High Court’s interim order to allow the screening of ‘Adipurush’, an Indian film based on epic Hindu mythology ‘Ramayan’. Earlier, Shah had banned the screening of the film, raising objection to one of the lines that he claimed portrayed ‘Janaki’ (goddess Sita) as India’s daughter. However, it was ironic enough that Shah, who is also a rapper, was resorting to such a thing as censorship, and when his mayoral injunction was removed by the court of law, he decided to call Nepali government and courts “slaves” of India. Shah lit a tinderbox of controversy over a film and when things didn’t go his way, he turned it into a matter of ‘sovereignty’ and ‘independence’. Many say it is not the mayor who should be wielding the sword of censorship, that there is the Censor Board of Nepal. But the board gave the film its green light without removing the “controversial” dialogue. Nationalism is a popular ideology right now, and Mayor Shah seems to be cashing on it. Earlier this month when there was a controversy over the ‘Akhand Bharat’ mural inside India’s new parliament building, he had the map of ‘greater Nepal’ placed in his office. Many people praised Shah for this, saying that unlike the government of Nepal, the mayor had the courage to send a reply to India’s ‘Akhand Bharat’ mural. After much public criticism, the government finally sought clarification from India regarding the map mural. In the case of ‘Adipurush’ too, many people celebrated Mayor Shah’s decision to ban its screening and criticized the government for not even raising a peep. Shah’s historic mayoral election victory as an independent candidate reflected Kathmandu voters' frustration toward political parties. After coming to power, Shah performed many tasks that his predecessors could not. For instance, he dismantled illegally built structures around the city, improved road condition, brought transparency to municipal works, and took initiatives to preserve ancient heritages. He was rightly praised by the members of public for being a man of action. The only area where Shah and his office faced criticism was the decision to remove landless squatters from public land and indiscriminately seize the goods of street vendors. Some see his gentrification drive as hostile toward the poor. But his supporters continue to see him as an outsider maverick. Mayor Shah recognizes the deep-seated frustration of his supporters toward traditional political parties, so every now and then he panders to this frustration by taking jibes at the parties, leaders and government ministers. A few months ago he decided to stop collecting garbage from Singhadurbar, where most of the federal ministries lie, for non-cooperation with the city office for management of waste. As the issue grabbed media attention, Shah took to his social media saying to the effect that the ministers who work inside Singhadurbar must be disposed of to Sisdol landfill site first in order for Kathmandu to become a clean city. Naturally, his statement struck a chord with his supporters. More recently, when the government decided to announce the revival of Constituency Development Fund, Mayor Shah once again took a dig at lawmakers by comparing their status as that of municipal ward chairpersons. But it is one thing to criticize the government and another to brazenly refuse to follow a court’s order. This is not the first time Mayor Shah’s decision has landed in court. Recently, a team of municipal police shut down an education fair, which led the organizer to knock on the door of Patan High Court. The court then issued an interim order paving the way for the organizer to resume the fair. But the court order concerning the screening of ‘Adipurush’ has caused much controversy, as Mayor Shah has not only tried to undermine the sanctity of the court but of democracy itself. In his tweet related to his defiance of the court order, there are more than 1,000 replies, and the majority of them have advised Mayor Shah to accept the court’s order even if it does not feel right. His followers have cautioned him not to go against the court order. Then there are those who are of the view that major political parties that are running the country for over three decades have been flouting the court orders all the time, and it is not right to point the finger only at Shah. Former Supreme Court justice Balaram KC says Mayor Shah should have maintained restraint but what he wrote on his social media should not constitute contempt of court. He adds the controversy should have been settled by the court by inviting the two sides for discussion. Major political parties and their leaders are afraid of speaking against Shah, because they fear that criticizing the Kathmandu mayor will result in a public backlash. Instead, he is being praised by parties carrying a nationalist agenda. CPN-UML leader Bhim Rawal has defended Shah, saying that the court order shows that nationalism has become weak. He has written on his social media that all the state institutions such as legislative, judiciary, and executive should stand in favor of national interests. Similarly, Rastriya Prajatantra Party Nepal Chairman Kamal Thapa has said while some of Mayor Shah’s working style could be controversial, his heart is in the right place. KC, the former Supreme Court justice, says Mayor Shah enjoys unquestionable support, courtesy of major parties’ decades long failure to change. His ‘nationalist’ posturing has only solidified his position. There is no doubt that Mayor Shah has overwhelming support, but he should be careful not to let the fame and popularity get to his head. Rash actions and misplaced attention are not what his supporters want from him. With all the accolades and support, Shah is in a position where his actions and conducts are hardly seen with a critical lens. It is a dangerous position to be in when there is no one to tell him right from wrong.  

Earlier this Monday, some fringe communist parties announced the formation of Socialist Front Nepal, a loose network of “like-minded” political forces.  It comprises the CPN (Maoist Center), the Upendra Yadav-led Janata Samajbadi Party, CPN (Unified Socialist) and the Netra Bikram Chand-led CPN Maoist. Together they announced plans to form and expand the front at the provincial and local levels as well.  Political observers see the latest communist front as a tactic to boost the number of votes in the next election, as their individual presence across the country and their organizational strength are in tatters.   Leading the front is the Maoist Center of Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, which won just 32 seats in the federal parliament in the 2022 general elections. Next up are the Madhav Kumar Nepal-led Unified Socialist, which failed to even secure a national party status winning only 10 seats under first-past-the-post voting category and zero under the proportional representation system; Yadav’s JSP, which has 12 seats in the federal parliament; and Chand’s Maoist party, which did not contest the elections.  The key purpose of the front is to make collective bargaining for power with either the Nepali Congress or the CPN-UML, two largest parties in parliament.   According to some leaders, the front is even planning to fight the next elections under a common symbol by forging an alliance with the NC or the UML. If the alliance plan did not work, the front is even willing to contest the polls as a single political force.  It is also noteworthy that the ‘Socialist Front’ has been announced at a time when mistrust is rising between the ruling Maoist party and its coalition partners, particularly the NC. Ruling party insiders say the announcement of the communist alliance has further fueled the mistrust between the two ruling parties.  As  Finance Minister Prakash Sharan Mahat of the NC designed this year’s budget largely in his party’s favor, parties including the JSP and Unified Socialist are said to be unhappy. Unified Socialist’s senior leader Nepal has already warned that his party will not help the government endorse the budget if some of his party’s demands are not addressed. JSP’s Yadav too has been talking about amending the budget, saying that there was no serious discussion among the coalition partners regarding the budget. It is not just the Unified Socialist and the JSP that have objected to the budget.  The CK Raut-led Janamat Party, which is not part of the ‘Socialist Front’, has also said that if the budget is not amended, the party will withdraw its support to the government.  These developments clearly show the growing dissatisfaction inside the ruling coalition. By forming the front of communist parties, Prime Minister Dahal meanwhile is trying to show that he has grown powerful, against the narrative that the current coalition is weak. By leading the front, he wants to show that  even with just 32 seats in parliament, he has a strong support of fringe communist parties to go head to head with both the NC and the UML. The NC views the formation of the ‘Socialist Front’ as Dahal’s ploy to put pressure on the party into compromising with a collective of fringe forces displaying a common front.  The formation of the front also coincides with the growing communication between the NC and the UML. The second-rung leaders of both parties are exploring ways to work together, including the formation of a new government. However, most NC leaders insist that there is no possibility of the current coalition breaking down. One NC leader told Apex on condition of anonymity that if the current coalition breaks down, the party risks losing power both at the center and provinces, just like it did right after the 2022 general elections when the Maoist Center and the UML decided to form a government.  He added that there is a good chemistry between NC President Deuba and Prime Minister Dahal of the Maoist Center, a scenario which he cannot imagine with KP Oli of the UML.  But there are also those in the NC who do not rule out the possibility of the NC-UML coalition—that is if it ensures government stability for at least five years.  Meanwhile, it is in the paramount interest of the UML to come to power in order to stop its cadres and supporters deserting to other political forces like the Rastriya Swatantra Party and the Rastriya Prajatantra Party.   If the UML were to return to power at the center and provinces, leaders say it could re-energize the party organization.  There is also a growing dissatisfaction within the NC over the performance of the Maoist-led government. Some Congress leaders are concerned that the party’s image will tarnish if the government fails to deliver.  Arrests of senior NC and UML leaders over the fake Bhutanese refugee scam have also  helped bring the two parties closer. According to a Congress leader, the party's senior member and former minister, Bal Krishna Khand, would not have been arrested had the home minister been from the NC.   There are internal and external reasons that could undermine the current ruling coalition. Observers say the formation of ‘Socialist Front’ has further shaken the structural integrity of the NC-Maoist partnership, while the UML looks on, from the sidelines with bated breath.     

After months of frosty relations, the US and China this week held talks at the high level. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken described his talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Chinese counterpart Qin Gang as “candid and substantive”. It was said that the two sides emphasized the need of direct and regular communication to prevent the further conflict. “I would expect additional visits by senior US officials to China over the coming weeks. Washington welcomes further visits by Chinese officials to the United States,” Blinken said after his China visit, indicating that the US-China relations will improve in the coming days. One of the key agreements between two countries was resuming the military-to-military relationship. In the meeting with Blinken, Xi assured that China respects American interests and does not seek to challenge or displace the US. In the same vein, Xi told Blinken that the US must not hurt China’s legitimate rights and interests. According to Chinese media, Blinken assured that the US does not support Taiwan independence, one of the major points of friction between the two countries. In August 2022, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, infuriating Beijing no end. In February this year, the US-China relationship reached yet another low after a spy balloon released by China was found over US territory. The balloon incident led to the cancellation of Blinken’s planned visit to China. The two countries seem to have cleared the air between them during Blinken’s trip to Beijing. The US and China also discussed the Russia-Ukraine war during Blinken’s visit. America wants to make sure that China does not provide weapons to Russia. Another major development of this week was Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit to the US. As the US relations with China and Russia stand on shaky ground, it has stepped up engagement with India. US President Joe Biden and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi have already been meeting fairly frequently on international platforms. Regarding Modi’s visit, India’s Minister for External Affairs S Jaishankar said that it is a visit on which there is a genuine and widespread deep interest in the United States. Among other several issues, the key highlight of Modi’s visit is building defense industrial cooperation roadmap. Over the past few years, India’s relationship with China has been intense due to the border clash. Put simply, India needs the US support to keep China at bay. And though the US and India do not have the same policy on South Asian countries, they are on the same page when it comes to containing China’s influence in the region. China’s growing influence in South Asian countries has become a cause for concern for both New Delhi and Washington. Observers say the Biden administration introduced the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) in 2022 with the express intent of curbing China’s growing influence in the South Asian region. IPS states about supporting India’s continued rise. The US recognizes India as a like-minded partner and leader in South Asia and the Indian Ocean, active in and connected to Southeast Asia. Implications for Nepal Though Nepal is not an influential player in international politics, the relationship between India-US and US-China obviously matters to the country. The ripple effects of the US-China confrontation has already been felt in Kathmandu over the past few years. Unlike in the past, China is more concerned over the US-assisted development projects in Nepal like the Millennium Challenge Corporation. Meanwhile, the US is also keenly observing China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) taking shape in Nepal. Both the US and China have also expressed concern about Nepal’s position on the Russia-Ukraine war and other international issues. As a buffer state between China and India, Nepal’s strategic positioning is of great importance for Beijing, New Delhi and Washington. During Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s India visit this month, the Indian side had raised the issue of growing Chinese influence in Nepal and its security implications for India. Dahal and Modi also discussed the entire regional environment, Chinese engagement in South Asia and how it is affecting the Nepal-India relationship. Dr Khadga KC, professor of international relations, says the recent visits by high-level American officials to China shows that the US is keen to enhance cooperation with China amid the competition on several issues. If the Washington-Beijing relationship improves, he says it would be easy for Nepal to conduct its own foreign policy. Nepal does not wish to see any confrontation or proxy war between an emerging superpower and established superpower, he adds. Binoj Basnyat, former Nepal Army official and strategic affairs expert, says Blinkent’s China trip and Modi’s US visit offer two different geopolitical dimensions. While Blinkent’s Beijing trip is more of a diplomatic engagement for both the domestic and international security environment with no compromise on the strategic goals, Modi’s US visit is important for the strategic balance of the South Asian region and the world in addressing China as a potential threat, he says. Basnyat adds that India and the US have similar interests when it comes to China, and such a geostrategic environment is a challenge to a small nation like Nepal, which cannot afford to be a playground nor pick a side. Pranab Kharel, political analyst, says the dynamics of US-India relations has direct implications for South Asia as both the countries have their respective weight in the region. He says the ongoing US visit of Modi should be read as the continuing effort of both the countries to keep each other in confidence. Kharel says that the US visit of the Indian prime minister is also taking place at a time when the Indians have positioned themselves separately from the Americans in the Ukraine crisis. India continues to import Russian crude oil in order to meet its energy demands. Therefore, when one wishes to contextualize the implications of the visit on Nepal, these key facts should not be missed, says Kharel. Furthermore, adds Kharel, the energy infrastructure being built in Nepal under MCC has India onboard, which indicates that the US-India dynamics are multifaceted and the implication on a country like Nepal is just one of those manifestations. Nepal’s Prime Minister Dahal visited India earlier this month. He is preparing to visit China, possibly in August, and will also likely visit the US. This shows Nepal is already in the radar of big powers.  

Foreign Ministry officials have begun homework to arrange the date and agenda for Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s China visit. A ministry source said the Nepali side has proposed the first-week of August as a tentative date for Dahal’s China visit, but nothing has been confirmed yet. The key agenda of the trip will be accelerating the connectivity projects as well as exploring new areas of cooperation between the two countries. The upgradation of Kathmandu-Rasuwagadhi and Kathmandu-Tatopani are already underway. Prime Minister Dahal is expected to request the Chinese side to complete those projects at the earliest. Nepal’s Ambassador to China Bishnu Pukar Shrestha said better connectivity is a prerequisite to enhance collaboration in trade, investment and other areas. “We are equally focusing on railway connectivity, accelerating the construction of transmission lines and tunnels,” he said about Dahal’s imminent Beijing visit. Tourism is another vital area where the two countries have been focusing of late. In this regard, Sichuan Airlines of China is set to conduct an inaugural flight to Pokhara International Airport on Wednesday. Shrestha said talks are underway with the Chinese side to increase the flights between the cities of the two countries. “These initiatives will boost Nepal’s tourism industry,” he added. Besides, the two sides are also holding talks on bringing new Chinese agricultural technology to Nepal. Prime Minister Dahal’s China visit is expected to make some progress in this regard. If Chinese agricultural technology is adopted, it will help Nepali farmers increase their agricultural output. Prime Minister Dahal has also expressed his desire to finalize at least one project under the Belt and Road Initiative. A Nepal government source said both Nepal and China want to give the message that the BRI project is moving ahead, be it under grant or heavily concessional loan scheme. “We have finalized the key priority areas of cooperation and there has been some progress as well,” said Ambassador Shrestha. He added that the Chinese side has also been emphasizing the speedy implementation of agreements reached between two countries during Xi Jinping’s 2019 Nepal visit. China has of late stepped up its engagement with a wider section of Nepali society. Over the past few weeks, delegations from the CPN (Maoist Center) and the CPN-UML have visited China. Similarly, Chairman of National Assembly Ganesh Prasad Timalsina paid an official visit to China and held talks with Wang Huning, chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. Huning told Timalsina that the two sides should synergize development strategies, maintain the political foundation for the growth of bilateral relations, expand exchanges and cooperation, and add new impetus to the respective development and revitalization of the two countries. Key priorities

•       Road
•       Railway
•       Tunnel
•       Transmission lines
•       Agriculture
•       Tourism
•       Security cooperation
•       Fertilizer
•       People-to-people exchanges

At 80, US President Joe Biden is eyeing a second term. If he wins the 2024 election, he will be 85 by the time he completes the term. Biden was the oldest president sworn in at 78 years 61 days. John F. Kennedy was the youngest elected president at 43 years and 236 days. On average, American presidents are sworn in at 55 years old. Chinese President Xi Jinping is nearing 70 years and Russian President Vladimir Putin is already 70. Both Xi and Putin are likely to stay in power for an unlimited period. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is 72, is likely to retire after the 2024 elections. Various polls held in various countries suggest that people want a maximum age limit for their leaders. But there are only a few countries that have imposed the age bar. In Nepal, too, discourse on the age limit of leaders crop up every now and then, only for the senior leaders, both in rank and age, to dismiss it. Top leaders of major parties in Nepal have already crossed 70, and yet they have shown no indication of retiring from active politics. This week, the issue of age limit caught headlines once again after the secretariat meeting of  CPN-UML announced to remove the age limit for the party leader. The UML was the first party to come up with such a policy and now it is planning to do away with it. The final decision in this regard will be taken by the party’s policy convention, and there is a high likelihood that it will be endorsed. Removal of the age threshold will not only pave the way for the party chairman, KP Oli, to seek reelection for a third term, it will also provide the aging second-rung leaders the shot at party leadership. Inside the Nepali Congress, some youth leaders have been demanding an age limit for the party president, but their voices have gone unheard. The NC has long been a party led either by a septuagenarian or an octogenarian leader. Its current leader, Sher Bahadur Deuba, is 77. The NC party statute has capped the term limit for the party president for only two terms. Deuba will be 80 by the time the party holds its next general convention in 2026. Previous NC presidents Sushil Koirala and Girija Prasad Koirala also remained at the party’s helm till their 80s. As for the CPN (Maoist Center), its leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal pretty much enjoys the role of a supremo, with no one to challenge his position in the foreseeable future. While many other countries are also run by old leaders, there is one stark difference between them and Nepal: the same set of leaders have been running the country for over the past three decades. “When the same set of leaders reach the helm of power time and again, there should at least be a term limit to break this cycle,” says NC’s Bhupendra Jung Shahi. “What matters the most in a leader is vision, dynamism and management capacity, not age. If someone in their seventies comes up with a new vision, they should be given the opportunity to lead.” Shahi adds there cannot be a comparison between Nepali leaders and other world leaders because the context is completely different.  In the case of Nepal, most youth politicians raise the issue of age limit, but they downplay the issue as they turn old, stating that it is the ideology that matters not the age. But some argue that there should be an age limit for politics just like in bureaucracy, police and army. They are of the view that  old age also affects one's ability to lead. But old-age top politicians do not agree. CPN-UML leader Lal Babu Yadav claims that it is the vision and quality matters, not the age of a leader. “When China’s Deng Xiaoping took charge, he was 73 and it is because of his vision that China has emerged as a superpower next to the US.  Similarly, Nelson Mandela, Lee Kuan are other leaders who transformed their country with their outstanding visions even at an advanced age.” Yadav adds Nepal’s former prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala was nearing 80 when he played a vital role in bringing the Maoist party to mainstream politics. “Had Koirala retired from active politics due to age limit, we can hardly imagine the initiation of the peace process,” he says In developing countries, politicians often undergo regular cognitive tests to find whether they are fit to perform the tasks. Such tests are not performed in Nepal. When it comes to constitutional provision of age limit in Nepal, there is only a floor not the ceiling. Article 87 of the constitution says one who has completed the age of 25 years is eligible to become a member of the House of Representative and 35 years for the National Assembly. But the constitution does not talk about the ceiling age. UML General Secretary Shankar Pokharel argues the age limit policy does not ensure the leadership change issue in political parties. Compared to other parties, he adds UML is the only party which has witnessed a periodic change in leadership. “We have a very clear position that by raising the age limit we should not create problems in the party’s leadership and the 70-year age limit does not guarantee a change in leadership.” Sociologist Pranab Kharel says imposing an age limit is a new way to elevate the new generation in party politics, but in the context of South Asia and Nepal, it does not appear relevant. “To impose such a provision, there should be practice of intra-party democracy and installation of necessary mechanisms.” Kharel notes that Nepal’s politics revolves around insecurity and as a result, top leaders do not want to take retirement till the end of their life. Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) leader Pranaya SJB Rana told ApEx in a recent interview that the narrative of young and old in politics is wrong. “For contesting parliamentary polls, experience and knowledge in policy making and research should be the criteria. It’s about qualification—not about age.” He gave the example of US Senator Bernie Sanders who at 81 is still highly engaged in policy research and advocacy. “His constituents, especially the youths, can relax and enjoy their private life. We should establish a narrative of qualification for politicians, not age.”

Ever since coming to power for the third time in December last year, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s priority has been to maintain a cordial tie with India. Over the past one decade, the Maoist leader has come to realize that India’s support is key to ascend to power and sustain it. The case is so evident now because Dahal’s key coalition partners including the Nepali Congress prefer ‘pro-India and pro-West’ foreign policy. Dahal also gave continuity to the long-standing practice of a newly elected prime minister making India the first destination of foreign visit. When he visited India from May 31 to June 3, Dahal did not raise the contentious issues in order not to annoy India. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, meanwhile, displayed positive gestures toward the Dahal government. Nepal and India also agreed to ink some important agreements, particularly the 10-year power trade, during Dahal’s India trip. Dahal’s relationship with India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party has significantly improved, and he does not see the southern neighbor posing any immediate threat to his government. After the India visit, Prime Minister Dahal is now preparing to visit China, another key neighbor of Nepal. Although Beijing has yet to send a formal invitation, the trip will probably take place in the last week of July or first week of August. Very few Nepali prime ministers get an official invite to visit China. Instead, they get an invitation to attend an event, where they also get to meet Chinese leaders. But Prime Minister Dahal, who is also the chairman of CPN (Maoist Center), is likely to get an official invitation to visit  China. When Dahal was in New Delhi for a four-day official visit, his close confidant and senior Maoist leader Agni Prasad Sapkota was on a China visit. Upon his return, Sapkota told media persons that he conveyed Dahal’s willingness to visit China as soon as possible. Dahal was invited to participate in the Boao Forum for Asia held in March, but he skipped the event as he was planning to visit India first. He later told Parliament that the Chinese ambassador understood his compulsion of visiting India first. After joining the peace process, Dahal’s foreign policy mantra was ‘striking a balanced relationship’ between India and China, though it was evident that he leaned more toward Beijing. During his second tenure as a prime minister in 2016, he began the task of sending special envoys to New Delhi and Beijing to highlight his policy of balanced relationship. In the initial months, he seemed ‘pro-India' but in the final weeks of his tenure, he took some important decisions including signing of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which pleased Beijing. This time too, he seems to be following the same policy of maintaining a cordial tie with India and at the same time making some substantial progress with Beijing, mainly in the areas of BRI. This policy suits both Dahal and his party. Leaders close to Dahal say the party leader is in favor of making some progress on BRI during his China visit. As Nepal is not in a position of taking expensive loans from Chinese banks for BRI projects, Dahal hopes to convince Beijing to develop the projects under grant and give a message to the world that the BRI has moved ahead. Some Maoist leaders have even suggested Dahal to ask the Chinese leadership to waive the loan on Pokhara International Airport and list it under one of the the BRI projects in Nepal. As the chairman of the party and prime minister, Dahal does not want to give a message that there have been disturbances in his balanced foreign policy.  But the intra-party dynamics of Maoist party tells a different story. Party’s senior leaders after Dahal are open and strong advocates of pro-China foreign policy. Senior leaders like Narayan Kaji Shrestha, Agni Sapkota, Barsha Man Pun, Krishna Bahadur Mahara, Dev Gurung all are in favor of a China-friendly policy. As a result, Dahal is under pressure to make some progress on China related issues. China’s key priority right now is implementation of past agreements, mainly those points agreed during Xi Jinping’s visit to Nepal in 2019. After 2016, Nepal and China have signed many strategic agreements of long-term implications. Former Nepali ambassador to China Tanka Karki says since there are already well-defined strategic issues between Nepal and China, their implementation should be the priority of Dahal’s China visit. Karki adds since Dahal has spelled out the policy of friendly ties with India he should also make sure that his government accords due priority to its relationship with New Delhi in the coming days. Dahal’s China trip is also expected to set the tone for Nepal’s engagements with other non-Western forces like Russia. He had played a vital role to secure the visit of National Assembly (NA) Chairman Ganesh Timalsina to Russia in April. After the visit, Russia has floated a proposal at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, outlining various areas of cooperation between Russia and Nepal. Timalsina is currently in China, where he has  met Zhao Leji, chairman of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee, to discuss ways to advance cooperation between the legislative bodies of the two countries. Maoist leader and former House Speaker Agni Sapkota had also played a vital role to engage with China at a time when the relationship between the Sher Bahadur Deuba-led government and Beijing was not at its best. In February 2022, Sapkota invited Chinese speaker Li Zhanchu and signed a six-point agreement, bypassing the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. According to the agreement, both parties would exchange information on each other’s legislature, supervisory and government practices. When the Deuba government was in power, the relationship between Kathmandu and Beijing took a hit, particularly after Nepal raised the issue of border encroachment by China in Humla district. China was mainly concerned over the growing American influence in Nepal, stating that it could jeopardize its security interests. Now, China is confident that its security interests would not be compromised because of the Dahal-led government. Like with India, according to some leaders, Dahal is not in favor of entering the disputed issues like the Global Security Initiative (GSI) with Beijing. Of late, China has been emphasizing that Nepal should maintain a balanced and neutral position. This means Beijing expects Nepal to treat both neighbors on equal footing.  In an opinion piece published in The Global Times by Zhang Jiadong, director of Center for South Asian Studies, Fudan University, says the core of Nepal’s policy toward China and India is to keep Nepal neutral and independent. “The Himalayan country tries to strike a balance between China and India, carefully assessing the relative influence of China and India in Nepal and adjusting its policies accordingly,” the article says. “However, it is indeed becoming increasingly challenging for Nepal to maintain a balance between neutrality and seeking its own development, as seeking development necessitates improving relations with both China and India.” As its rivalry with the US intensifies, China has spoken less about the Indian influence in Kathmandu, instead reacting more on Nepal-America relationship. This time, Prime Minister Dahal has given an indication that his priority is to engage on the economic front with global powers and staying away from the disputed issues.  

Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba has announced that he will not contest the party presidency again. The NC statute too caps a two-term limit for its president. The party is likely to hold its next general convention in 2026, and it will elect a new leadership. According to leaders close to Deuba, the party president is preparing to hand over the presidency, but wants to conduct the next general election under his leadership. Deuba became party president for the first time in 2016 and renewed his term from the general convention held in 2022. As per the party statute, the general convention must be held every four years, but can be extended by one year in case there are any emergency issues. During seven years in power, Deuba has emboldened his position inside the party, and maintains a strong command both in the party's Central Working Committee as well as the Parliamentary Party. No proposal or decision gets endorsed without his approval. Deuba’s decision to step away from the NC leadership comes at a time when there are calls to organize a special general convention to elect a new leadership. The rival camps in the Congress party started calling for Deuba’s resignation after he failed to give continuity to the five-party coalition following the general elections held in November last year. Calls for a change in leadership have grown louder after the party lost the by-election in Tanahun-1, a party stronghold. NC general secretary duo, Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma, and other leaders such as Gururaj Ghimire have emerged as strong advocates of  immediate leadership change. But, leaders in the Deuba camp say the party president is seeking a graceful exit, like his predecessors. He has expressed strong disdain toward the ongoing campaign launched by Ghimire for party reformation, saying that such an act will further deepen factional politics inside Congress. Some party leaders say Deuba’s leadership is increasingly becoming questionable even though the party emerged as the largest party in parliament in the last year’s general elections. They say Deuba has shown no interest whatsoever in bringing programs to reenergize the party. The NC president and a five-time prime minister is also known for disregarding the party’s statute and imposing his own decisions. For instance, during the last general convention, the party had pledged to organize a policy convention to discuss the party’s ideology, but this has not happened due to Deuba’s reluctance. The NC is confronting new challenges, but its leadership has not paid sufficient attention to energize the party structures. It has been more than a year since the NC held its last convention, and the party is yet to form its departments. The party's sister organizations are also in a state of mess. Following the general elections of last year, parties like the CPN-UML have launched various programs to reach out to their cadres and voters. But the Congress party has not brought any such programs. The party has not even reviewed its election performance. It is the young party members who have been frustrated the most by Deuba’s leadership. Some youth members are even detaching themselves from the party with the intent of joining the new political forces like the Rastriya Swatantra Party. “Youths are no longer attracted to our party,” says one leader. “It would be a big achievement for the Nepali Congress if only it could retain the youth members that it has right now.” The situation on the ground is gradually shifting for the NC, but its top leadership has refused to acknowledge it. The party’s organizations are in extreme disarray, and its support base is rapidly shrinking. Some leaders fear that the NC could face a humiliating defeat in the next general elections, if the party did not change its ways. But who is the next leader who can re-energize the NC? Deuba took the leadership of the party after a long-battle with the Koirala dynasty. In the 2022 general convention, he got elected as party president but his key confidants lost the election to the party’s office bearers. Two of Deuba’s rivals, Thapa and Sharma, won the post of party’s general secretary, who are now calling for an end to Deuba’s reign to save Congress. Thapa has even projected himself as the next party leader. In the Deuba camp are leaders like Purna Bahadur Khadka, Prakash Sharan Mahat, and Gyanendra Bahadur Karki. Bal Krishna Khand, another close confidant of Deuba, is currently under arrest for his alleged involvement in Bhutanese refugee scam. Some leaders say within the Deuba camp, there is no clear successor to replace him, as all the leaders see one another as equals and would not agree to see one of them take on the role of the party president. The rival camp led by Shekhar Koirala is also a divided house at the moment, which puts the NC at a precarious position. It is not sure whether Koirala and Thapa will stand together in the next general convention. Koirala wants to become party president and for that he is seeking Thapa’s vote of confidence. But Thapa, who has already contested the election for the parliamentary party leader against Deuba, is also preparing to contest for the party presidency. Compared to Thapa, Koirala has been taking a soft stance on Deuba. Amid calls to hold a special general convention, Koirala, in a way, is defending Deuba, saying that pointing the finger at a single leader for all party’s mess is unfair. Of late, Deuba and Koirala have also been seen sharing the same stage. They were seen together at the convention of the NC, Bhaktapur chapter, recently. Deuba and Koirala also attended a conference of Democratic Lawyers Association held in Chitwan. Some leaders see this as a sign of Deuba projecting Koirala as the next party president. However, Deuba is yet to agree to appoint Koirala as a senior leader of the party, despite the tradition of the party president appointing his closest rival as a senior leader. In the 13th general convention, Deuba had appointed Ram Chandra Poudel, his presidential election rival, as a senior leader. Former NC president Sushil Koirala had also done the same by appointing Deuba as the senior leader. But some NC leaders believe that the next party president should be someone young and influential in order to reenergize the party and to counter the new emerging forces such as Rastriya Swatantra Party and the resurgence of Rastriya Prajatantra Party. For them, Thapa is their obvious choice. But there are many obstacles for Thapa to become the next NC president. Leaders in the Deuba camp as well as some youth leaders do not want Thapa to lead the party. Political analyst Puranjan Acharya says though it is too early to talk about Deuba’s successor, it is clear that there aren’t any towering personalities in the party who could revitalize the party. “I don’t think Deuba will be able to leave his legacy in the party because there could be a split in his faction,” he says. Acharya adds Deuba and Koirala sharing the same stage in recent times is not a sufficient reason to draw a conclusion about the NC’s future leadership. “We have also yet to see how youth leaders like Gagan Thapa, who is claiming the leadership spot, evolve inside the party,” observes Acharya. NC Central Working Committee member Nain Singh Mahar says if they can keep their camp intact they would be able to elect a new president. “It depends on how intra-party dynamics will evolve because we are seeing the rapid changes in the traditional factions of the party. At the same time, national politics will also affect the leadership election.” Thapa is in favor of bringing about a sea change in the party organization, and for that he has been calling for a special convention. But with Koriala apparently cozying up with Deuba to secure his berth as the next NC president, the change that Congress leaders and supporters want may not come after all.

“Prime Minister Prachandaji, you will visit Indore and the religious city of Ujjain. I am sure your visit to Ujjain will be full of energy, and you will also have a spiritual experience in this journey from Pashupatinath to Mahakaleshwar.” This was the statement made by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi while addressing the press conference organized in Hyderabad House after a delegation level meeting with Nepali Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal. Modi’s statement clearly indicates he wants Nepali leaders to be more committed to Hindu religion. The next day, Dahal offered an elaborate Pooja at Mahakaleshwar temple in Indore. Images of him, a communist atheist clad in Dhoti and Janai performing an act of piety was quite a spectacle. The prime minister was joined by the members of his delegation that included five ministers. Soon after his return to Nepal, Dahal went on to perform another out-of-character move by visiting Pashupatinath temple. Here was the leader of the Maoist revolution whose party detested religion discovering faith, so to speak. His move has also triggered a debate whether it goes against the secular spirit of the 2015 constitution. Dahal has defended himself saying that he visited the temples and participated in rituals as the head of the government. But many are not convinced. Even his long-time colleague and former Maoist leader Baburam Bhattarai has said: “When an individual goes to the temple, we cannot raise questions because it is a matter of his belief, but when the whole Cabinet goes there that becomes a political issue.” Why are major political parties who drafted a secular constitution in 2015 are now drifting toward Hindu religion?  Dahal is not the first leader who as a prime minister has tried to appease the Hindu constituency. Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba and CPN-UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli did the same when they were in power. For instance, Deuba as a prime minister in 2022, performed a Pooja at Kal Bhairav and Kashi Vishwanath in Varanasi. As a prime minister from 2018 to 2022, Oli took a series of measures to woo the Hindu voters. Analysts say it clearly indicates that there is growing influence of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and Rastriya Swayamsevak Sangh(RSS) inside Nepal’s political parties. Of late, more and more BJP leaders and RSS representatives are traveling to Nepal to step up engagements with various sections of society. A few months back, a RSS representative said: “For us, both India and Nepal are already Hindu states as we do not regard both countries as secular states.” Over the past few years, BJP has expanded its party-to-party relationship with Nepal’s political parties including the communist leaders. Publicly, BJP leaders have not told anything to our leaders about Hindu religion, but they are speaking about enhancing the age-long cultural ties. In their private meetings with Nepali leaders, BJP leaders often mention ‘cultural nationalism’ which means promotion and protection of Hindu religion Since Nepal adopted a secular constitution in 2015, BJP and RSS have been expressing their concerns about religious conversion in Nepal. They believe that there is a growing attack on Hindu religion in the name of secularism. BJP has been reportedly suggesting Nepal’s political parties to take measures to protect the Hindu religion. It is no coincidence that the voices of reinstatement of Hindu state are gaining ground inside major political parties of Nepal, including the Maoists. In the second week of May this year, Maoist leader Ram Kumar Sharma submitted a memorandum to Prime Minister Dahal demanding a referendum between Hindu state and secularism. It was the first instance of the Hindu agenda being raised inside the party. Inside the NC, such voices are already strong and vocal.  NC Central Working Committee leader Shankar Bhandari and several other leaders are demanding a referendum on secularism. But party President Sher Bahadur Deuba has so far managed to quell such a demand.  During the 2018 meeting of the Mahasamiti, the party’s second-most powerful decision-making body, over 40 percent of the delegates had petitioned the party leadership to amend the party charter to address the issue. Advocates of the cause argue that the people were not consulted on religion during the writing of the constitution. Of the 1,600 party delegates assembled in Kathmandu for the meeting, around 700 (over 43 percent) supported a signature campaign to press the party leadership to reinstate Hindu state. Inside the CPN-UML, too, the call for Hindu state is growing rapidly. A chunk of UML leaders are demanding a re-think on federalism and a referendum on Hindu agenda. In the second week of May, some leaders proposed a discussion on federalism, but the party chairman, Oli, did not agree Observers say this is not only about the influence of BJP, major parties are in fact trying to appease the Hindu constituencies to gain votes. There is a growing realization among major parties that antagonizing the Hindu population, which constitutes 81 percent of total population, is not in their interests. In 2022, Rastriya Prajatantra Party, which advocates for the Hindu state, secured 14 seats in the national parliament. In a public opinion poll conducted a few years back by Sharecast Initiative Nepal, an NGO, 51.7 percent respondents—slightly down from a 15-year average of 60 percent—said Nepal should be declared a Hindu state, 40.3 percent said they are okay with secularism, while 8.1 percent respondents withheld their views. According to the survey, the support for Hindu state, at around 70 percent, is the highest in Province 2, now Madhes province. As major parties are drifting toward Hindu religion, is there a chance of a referendum? Many politicians and experts that ApEx spoke to do not rule out such possibility. They are of the view that as people’s frustration is boiling up against the current system, there are clear risks to Nepal’s secularism. One senior politician said: “In 2015, political parties had almost agreed to not mention anything about religion in the constitution, but that did not happen. There may not be a revival of Hindu state, but there may be an amendment to the constitution to remove the mention of religion.” Political analyst Dambar Khatiwada said since Prime Minister Dahal has lost all ideological, ethical and principle grounds, there is no point commenting about his recent temple visits in India and Nepal. “During the insurgency period, they [Maoist rebels] destroyed temples, killed priests and spoke about the cultural revolution. Now they have totally changed,” he said. Lawmaker Amresh Kumar Singh said Dahal has abandoned all his principled position to remain in power.  “Prime Minister Dahal is traveling to the temples of India and Nepal only to appease the BJP and RSS, which is not helpful to the country. Personally he may take some benefits, particularly cementing his hold on power,” he said.  Singh does not believe that Nepal’s secularism is in crisis, but he does not rule out the possibility of debates and controversies over religion in the future. Chairman of Rastriya Prajatantra Party Rajendra Lingden, which is advocating for the restoration of Hindu state and monarchy, said Prime Minister Dahal’s Pashupati visit immediately after his India visit was significant.  “We are very happy that Prime Minister Dahal accepted the agenda of Hindu state. But if this was just an act that he was putting on to make someone happy, it will be very unfortunate.”