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Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is visiting India from May 31, his first abroad trip after assuming office on 25 Dec 2022.  The much-awaited visit was delayed primarily due to two key reasons: first due to the fluid political situation at home, and the second due to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s busy schedule. The Indian prime minister has just returned from Japan after participating in the Quad Leaders’ Summit. Over the past couple of years, India has been in the focus of global powers. In December last year, it assumed the G20 presidency and is preparing to convene the G20 leaders’ summit for the first time. India is also set to  host Quad Leaders’ Summit later this year. Prime Minister Dahal’s India visit will be meaningful amid growing US-China rivalry, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and  China and Russia coming closer for a shared objective of weakening the US global dominance. The Western bloc sees India as a counterweight to China’s influence in the South Asian region, and has come up with a series of policy and institutional measures to contain China’s growing military and economic influence in the smaller countries of this region. Meanwhile, after the Western sanctions, Russia too is looking at Asia to expand its trade and business, with India at the center. So far, India, one of the biggest powers in Asia, and other small countries of the Global South have refused to join bloc politics. They have taken a neutral and independent position on the Russia-Ukraine war. India, for example, continues to engage with Russia regardless of the criticisms from the Western powers. India’s economy is in the sixth position behind the US, China, Japan, Germany, and the UK, but it is poised to become the third largest economy, overcoming other powers. And as India increases its engagement with global powers, its top political level has little time to engage with small Asian countries, including its neighbors like Nepal. It takes several months for envoys of South Asian countries to even get to pay a courtesy call to Indian Minister for External Affairs S Jaishankar. Through the G-20 presidency, India wants to shape global debates, says strategic analyst Binoj Basnyat. He adds India’s ambition to lead the Global South is evident in its influence in global political affairs and increased engagements with political-economic-security groupings like the Quad, BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the G7, G20 and ASEAN. Though the “neighborhood first” policy remains at the core of Nepal-India relationship, Basnyat says it is also important to acknowledge India’s expanding engagements with West Asia, East Asia and Far-East Asia. Prime Minister Dahal should be well-informed about where the world and Asia is heading when he holds talks with his Indian counterpart Modi. The Nepal government should be clear about where it stands amid the changing geopolitical landscape. The clarity of vision also applies when dealing with other powers like China and the US. Countries like Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Germany, among others, have come up with their own Indo-Pacific visions as per US’ Indo Pacific Strategy. India is already a member of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. Will Prime Minister Dahal consider this changing global scenario and changing India when he sits for dialogue with Indian leadership? This time too Foreign Minister Narendra Saud has continued the customary practice of seeking suggestions from former foreign ministers and experts for the prime minister’s India visit. Obviously, Nepal and India have some long-standing issues such as border dispute and EPG (Eminent Persons’ Group) report that should get due priority when the two sides sit for a meeting during Dahal’s India trip. But Nepal should also look beyond these issues to foster a more dynamic relationship with India. Prime Minister Dahal should be able to present Nepal’s vision on how Nepal wants to take the economic benefit from India’s rise and changing global environment. For instance, Bangladesh has come up with the Indo-Pacific Outlook outlining guiding principles and objectives. The document recognizes the stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific as a crucial factor in realizing Bangladesh’s vision 2041. Nepal could make a similar vision on the Indo-Pacific which does not mean that Nepal should join the US' Indo-Pacific Strategy. The Quad Leaders’ Summit has come up with several initiatives and projects for the Indo-Pacific region. Nepal should be able to present its position through India. Likewise, Japan has shown greater interest to invest in the infrastructure of South Asia, which is an opportunity for Neap. Japan and Nepal can work jointly in connectivity projects including roads, railways and waterways. Nepal must have a concrete plan on how it will execute and use such projects for greater economic cooperation. South Korea has also shown its interest to engage with Nepal under its Indo-Pacific Strategy. Nepal and India can sign a long-term comprehensive economic cooperation in this regard. Nepal is going through an economic recession, unemployment rate is surging, and foreign investment is dwindling. In this scenario, Nepal should be able to lay out a clear vision on how it wants to engage with India on the economic front, instead of just seeking assistance for some development projects. Of late, there has been some progress on connectivity projects but there is no plan on how we are going to use those connectivity projects.  Similarly, the Nepal government needs to make preparations with how it is going to engage with Indian states that share borders with Nepal. India has already adopted a policy of competitive federalism which means Indian states compete with each other in attracting foreign investments and Nepal can take benefit from those Indian states. There should be introspection on how Indian investment is not coming to Nepal and why multinational companies are hesitating to invest. Until now, unskilled manpower and seasonal workers have been going to India for employment. Now, we can request India to provide certain quotas for skilled workers. Thousands of students who studied in India and Western universities could get high paying jobs in the Indian market. There has been good progress on energy cooperation between Nepal and India, but many issues are yet to be settled. Nepal has a high potential of contributing to the entire South Asia for clean energy. For that to happen, there is a need for collaboration between Nepal and India. India is the current chair of G20 and it is an opportunity for Nepal to make its voice heard at the international level. For instance, the impact of climate change on the Himalayas is an urgent issue of Nepal on which global attention is required. Nepal can ask India to make this one of the key agenda of G20. But Nepal’s plans and visions are unlikely to figure during Dahal’s India visit. It is already clear that his visit will revolve around the same old agendas, and that Prime Minister Dahal will most likely use the trip as an opportunity to cement his power. It is already too late to come up with a vision on how Nepal is going to engage with new India and other powers. .The same point is applicable with China, because Nepal is not prepared to take benefits from China’s rise. Many scholars have already started talking about G3 which means the US, India and China will shape the new world order. Uddhab Pyakurel, associate professor at Kathmandu University, says confusion in understanding Nepal’s geo-political reality has remained the main challenge for Dahal and his party. As the Maoist party has never been rational when dealing with Nepal’s immediate and distant neighbors, he adds to expect a major development in Nepal-India relations out of Prime Minister Dahal’s upcoming visit would be a folly.

Russia has submitted a written proposal at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, seeking to enhance ties with Nepal at multiple levels, from high-level political engagements to infrastructure development projects. The document, which was seen by ApEx, expresses Russia’s readiness to increase its assistance to Nepal and talks about the new areas of the cooperation between the two countries. The document was prepared on the basis of talks held by National Assembly Chairman Ganesh Prasad Timalsina with the Russian officials during his visit to Russia in April. Geopolitical experts say Russia reaching out to Nepal is part of its wider Asia policy of expanding ties with all big and small countries to withstand Western sanctions. Most recently, the G7 nations decided to put more sanctions on Russia as it continues to wage a war with Ukraine. Nepal had voted against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but it continues to engage with Moscow diplomatically. Though engagement with Nepal is not going to contribute significantly for Russia to withstand the Western sanctions, Moscow has nevertheless stepped up its engagement with Nepal. Experts say this may be due to Nepal’s strategic geopolitical location. Nepal’s Ambassador to Russia Milan Tuladhar says Moscow’s renewed interests to step up engagement with Nepal must be seen as an opportunity. Russia has shown interest in providing financial assistance to construct roads in Pokhara and increasing the education quota for Nepali students from the current 18 to 150-200, according to the document. Direct deliveries of oil products, direct air flight between Kathmandu and Moscow, delivery of Russian helicopters, construction of the Russian Buddhist temple in Lumbini and direct investment from Russia are other areas that Russia has proposed Nepal. If Nepal makes a formal request, according to Tuladhar, Russia is also willing to provide fertilizer to Nepal. Almost every year, Nepali farmers face a shortage of chemical fertilizer for their crops. Ambassador Tuladhar says Russia can address this chronic problem. Russia has also offered to resume direct flights between the cities of two countries to enhance trade and tourism. If there is a direct flight, the number of Russian tourists will substantially increase, says Tuladhar. Geopolitical analyst Chandra Dev Bhatt says Nepal-Russia relationship has a long history and cordial relationship since the Cold War era.  Now, Russia is returning to South Asia after 30 years, engaging with all countries primarily focusing on new geopolitical flashpoints including Kathmandu, he adds. Amid pressure from Western countries to denounce Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Chairman of National Assembly Timalsina visited Russia in April. It was the first high-level visit from Kathmandu to Moscow after the Russia-Ukraine war, and first parliamentary delegation visit to Russia after 2016. During the visit, Timalsina also extended an invitation to Russian lawmakers to visit Kathmandu. In an interview with Russian news agency TAAS, Timilsina said he was expecting to host a high-level visit this year by Russian lawmakers Valentia Matviyenko, Valentina Matviyenko, speaker of the Federation Council (upper house of parliament), and Vyacheslav Volodin, speaker of the lower house State Duma. Timalsena added that Kathmandu was expecting that the visit would help boost Nepal-Russia trade. Khadka KC, professor of international relations, says Russia of late Russia has adopted an appeasement policy regarding Nepal. By making some offers, he adds it seems that Russia is trying to seek Nepal’s support in the international forum.  Russian proposal

•         Fertilizer
•         Direct flights between Moscow and Kathmandu
•         Russian helicopters
•         High-level visits
•         People-to-people engagement
•         Increase of scholarship quota
•         Cooperation in international platforms

The top leaders of major political parties are incorrigible lots. They can’t change if their life depended on it. It’s a pathology of sorts, which, if left untreated, can sink their parties. The writing has been on the wall for several months. The first sign was the general elections outcome of November last year, when the newly formed Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) emerged as a moderate political force and the pro-monarchy right-wing Hindu force Rastriya Prajatantra Party also made a comeback. The two parties decreased the size of mainstream political parties: Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center). More tellingly, none of these parties could secure a simple majority in the federal parliament; this was despite the Congress and Maoists forging an electoral alliance. After the election, the major parties remained busy in forming and breaking the ruling coalition. It showed where their priority lay. They wanted power and the people wanted political stability. No wonder, the government formed under Pushpa Kamal Dahal failed to instill hope in people, particularly at a time when the country was staring at a serious economic crisis. Then came the results of the by-election, in which the RSP secured resounding wins in two (Tanahun-1 and Chitwan-2) of the three constituencies where the polls were held on April 23. The margin with which the traditional parties lost the election was yet another clear indication that the people are deeply frustrated with the old guard. The latest incident that could put Nepal’s major parties to the sword is the fake Bhutanese refugee scam involving top political leaders, their close relatives and aides, among others. Nepal Police has so far arrested former home minister and NC leader Bal Krishna Khand and former deputy prime minister and CPN-UML secretary Top Bahadur Rayamajhi for their alleged involvement in the case. The scandal has been termed by many as a state-sponsored human trafficking case, and there is a widespread suspicion that the leaders of the three major parties—Prime Minister Dahal, Congress leader Sher Bahadur Deuba, and UML leader KP Oli—are trying to influence the police investigation. The trio has been meeting on an almost regular basis. As public anger and suspicion continue to grow against major political parties, youth leaders find themselves in a bind. They want to reform their parties, but their bosses are adamant to change. More than Dahal, Deuba and Oli, it is the youth leaders that seem worried about the future of their respective parties. The next generation leaders of these three major parties fear that Nepali voters will punish them in the 2027 general elections. Their apprehension is valid, given that scores of youth members from their parties are defecting to the RSP. While the UML has decided to launch a campaign to attract youths to the party and become the largest party in 2027, it appears to be a far-fetched dream. The popularity of RSP that started in urban centers is catching up in rural Nepal, which could potentially affect the UML’s campaign. The Nepali Congress seems to be in the most difficult position. Some youth leaders have already started a drive to reform the party. General secretary duo of the party, Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma, have warned of a revolt against the incumbent leadership, but they know that Deuba is too powerful. The dilemma of Thapa and Sharma is that they cannot leave the party, nor do they have hope that Deuba will change. The NC has not even suspended Khand from the party, which has further eroded the party's image and credibility. A senior NC leader says: “Probably for the first time, President Deuba is serious about the party's future and his own image. But he is still not ready to give up his position and pave the way for the younger generation to lead the party.” The CPN (Maoist Center), meanwhile, is trying to gain some sympathy votes with the Dahal governemnt prosecuting the accused in the fake Bhutanese refugee scam. But that will happen only if the leadership of Prime Minister Dahal showed the grit to investigate and prosecute all politicians and senior government officials involved in the case. The Maoist party is already weak, with just 32 seats in the federal parliament, and its organization is in a mess. Instead of strengthening the party, many say Dahal is busy building his personal image. It is not lost on the people that UML leader Rayamajhi, who is currently in police custody in connection with the refugee scam, and former home minister and another UML leader Ram Bahadur Thapa, who has also been linked to the case following the arrest of his son, were both former Maoist party leaders. Bishnu Rijal, a youth leader from the UML, doesn’t agree that the old political parties are losing their relevance, though he admits that they should change their ways. “The major political parties of Nepal have a long history, they have a sound ground and they must have a clear vision for the future.” He doesn’t believe the new parties like the RSP have a long-term future. “They are carrying populist agendas, whereas we have a robust system that is capable of filtering our politicians.” He went on to claim that Rayamajhi and Khand got arrested because their parties had robust systems in place. The emergence of RSP has also renewed the call for unity among communist parties of Nepal. The CPN (Unified Socialist) and CPN (Maoist Center) are already in talks to explore ways for the possibility of unification. Talks are also underway between second-rung leaders of CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center) for possible collaboration—if not unification. If that happens, the Congress party will once again find itself in a fix. The grand old party that espouses democratic values is already losing its support base to the RSP. There is a choice for Dahal, Deuba and Oli: Make way for next generation leaders or leave behind horrible legacies.

Nepal is a text-book example of how a messy domestic policy paralyzes the external policy. The country has been caught in chronic political instability since 1990. There was a glimmer of hope for stability after Nepal promulgated a new constitution in 2015 and held its  first general elections in 2017. It was not to be. Even when two key communist parties—CPN-UML and CPN(Maoist) Center—came together in 2018 to form the erstwhile Nepal Communist Party (NCP) and the most powerful government in the modern history of Nepali politics, stability proved elusive for Nepal.  Whatever hopes and optimisms people had were shattered when the NCP suffered a split. In fact, the situation got worse after the party breakup, as the prime minister at the time, KP Sharma Oli of UML, tried to dissolve a democratically elected parliament. The singular mission of all major political parties in Nepal has been to grab power by any means. They are ready to compromise their political values and ideologies and align with any party, so long as they can rule the roost. Good governance, service delivery, economic development and effective foreign policy have never been on their priority list. It is no secret that Nepal’s political parties see international relations through the prism of party interests. That is why they have no qualms about putting on hold important issues related to major countries. When it comes to the conduct of foreign policy, a key problem that Nepal faces today is from the government itself. The recent governments have all come in the form of rainbow coalitions, of parties representing various ideologies and worldviews. They cannot find a common ground when it comes to foreign policy. As general elections in November last year delivered more fractured verdict, as not a single party could muster a simple majority. In such a case, four to five parties have to come together in order to form a government. It is hopeless to expect such a government to deliver both on national and international fronts. There are just too many clashing interests and ideologies. Already, the current dispensation under Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is losing its popularity. It could collapse anytime if the fringe parties in the coalition were to pull out their support. Every major party in Nepal has its own opinion on how the country should conduct its foreign policy and diplomatic relations. Take a small but meaningful issue that is mentioned in the Common Minimum Program of the current government. While preparing the document, there were differences among the ruling parties on the issue of border disputes. While the Nepali Congress wanted to clearly mention the alleged border dispute with China, the CPN (Maoist Center) wanted to leave China out. Finally, the two parties agreed to mention in the document that border disputes with neighbors will be resolved through diplomatic channels. No names were named, neither China nor India, with whom Nepal shares contested boundaries. It is a clear indication that the political parties in Nepal do not take the border issue seriously. They would rather avoid bringing up the issue at all, lest it should create a controversy. There is also a huge gulf between Nepali Congress and communist parties on how to deal with India, US and China. They fear that taking a clear and firm position will spoil the party relationship with these countries. Here is another example of Nepal’s messy foreign policy. Nepal sent Foreign Minister NP Saud to attend King Charles’ recent coronation ceremony after President Ram Chandra Poudel canceled his visit owing to his illness. Most of the countries had sent their heads of state or government to the event, but the Nepal government chose to send the foreign minister. It didn’t even consider sending the Vice President. Over the past few years, foreign direct investment is dwindling. As political stability is nowhere in sight, and successive governments have failed to improve legal and procedural hurdles to attract foreign investment. Though the government is preparing to convene an investment summit, it is unlikely to bring any changes. Unless there is an improvement in Nepal’s political atmosphere, foreign investors are not going to make investments in Nepal. Foreign countries have no trust in Nepal’s system, nor its institutions. That is why an increasing number of foreign ambassadors are seen meeting ministers, secretaries and politicians to get things done and to convey their message. And there is a huge gap between what our politicians tell foreign diplomats and what they do in practice. Nepali political parties and their leaders have been known to trump up fear of foreign invasion among the masses by deliberately mischaracterizing foreign-led programs. The US Millennium Challenge Corporation is a case in point. Some politicians took separate positions in the street and in meetings with American officials on the issue of endorsing the program through Parliament. Recently, a Kathmandu-based senior diplomat said that Nepali politicians speak one thing and do the other. With the ongoing Bhutanese refugee scam, the infamy of Nepal and Nepali political parties will further deepen. The Ministry of Home Affairs, which is one of the important ministries, is caught in the scandal. Former home minister Balkrishna Khand is facing investigation in a grand fraud incident, where hundreds of Nepalis were swindled of millions of rupees by promising to send them to the US as Bhutanese refugees. A former home secretary has also been implicated in the scam. The incident has tarnished the image of the ministry. In this scenario, how can we convince the foreign powers that their secrecy is maintained and their security interests are protected? We do not have an immediate solution to the political instability because the parties are not ready to amend the constitution and change the electoral system. Does it mean foreign policy will have to suffer even more in the coming years?  We can reduce the damages if we are serious about building institutions and systems. The Office of the Prime Minister and the Council of Ministers, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other institutions need to mend ways. Similarly, major parties should immediately shun the policy of exploiting the issues related to other countries to advance their interests. So far, they have shown no signs of improving their conduct. To deal with complex geopolitical situations, Nepal needs vibrant state institutions, but we are experiencing just the opposite. Our state intuitions are turning dysfunctional and they are losing their credibility.

The Nepali Congress faces a moment of reckoning. The country’s oldest political party, which claims to be a bulwark of democracy, is crumbling. This undoing is Congress’s own fault and no other’s. The NC’s loss in the April 23 by-election in its traditional vote base has forced the party to take stock of its principles. The truth is that the Congress party is far removed from the democratic values and visions it espouses. And with the emergence of new democratic forces, mainly the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), the grand old party stands at great and very much realistic risk of losing its supporters. It is high time that the NC reformed itself. A cohort of youth leaders have already been meeting on a daily basis to brainstorm ideas to secure its traditional political bases before they are swooped away by the RSP. It is probably for the first time in the history of NC, an emergent political force—and not its traditional rival, CPN-UML—has posed more threat to the party.  While the NC is still the largest party in federal parliament, it no longer has the luxury to stay content. The electoral verdict of last month’s by-election in Tanahun-1 is a clear indication that NC’s traditional voters, let alone the new and young ones, have had enough of the party. The party has been riven by factionalism and favoritism, while internal democratic practice has long since been abandoned. Earlier, people who held liberal democratic values supported the NC because there was no other viable alternative force. Now, there are clear signs that scores of former Congress sympathizers see their future in the RSP. When Swarnim Wagle, a noted economist and former NC member, left the party to join the RSP, he shared his frustration of working under the current leadership of Congress. He even went so far as to accuse NC leader Sher Bahadur Deuba and his wife Arzu Rana of promoting favoritism in the party. Wagle went on to win the by-election in Tanahun-1 as an RSP candidate with a wide margin against the NC candidate. While Wagle’s departure from the Congress stirred many young and thinking party supporters to question their political loyalty, his impressive electoral win has convinced them to break ties with the party for good. If social media opinions are any indicator, a sizable section of NC supporters is now inclined toward the RSP due to the Wagle factor. This shift is not limited to the urban areas. The RSP’s impact is reverberating in rural parts of Nepal as well. According to one senior Congress leader, scores of party members could defect to the RSP by the next election season. He fears the NC will lose most of its young members and voters if the party fails to reform itself, both at the central leadership and fringe levels. For the first time, according to some NC leaders, Deuba has realized the need to overhaul the party. He has proposed revitalizing the party’s sister organizations which have become more or less defunct due to factional rivalry. But the dysfunctional NC sister wings is only one aspect that the party needs fixing. To prevent young and competent party members from quitting the party, Deuba also recently appointed Minendra Rijal as a Central Working Committee (CWC) member. But Rijal’s appointment is a tiny consolation for the young party members. There is a chronic frustration inside the NC over Deuba’s working style. There are growing calls that there should be a change in the party's leadership through a special general convention. Deuba, meanwhile, refuses to budge. The Congress leader had faced a similar call when the party faced drubbing in the 2017 general elections. Again, his failure to keep the electoral alliance intact following the general elections of last year had also caused the party members to call for his resignation. But Deuba succeeded to maintain his grip in the leadership after he managed to break the coalition between CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center) and take the Congress party to the government as a ruling alliance member. Deuba continues to hold a strong sway in the party’s central committee, which is why he has, time and again, managed to come on top, despite all the political blunders he has made so far as the Congress party leader. The party has yet to convene its CWC meeting to reflect on the outcome of the by-election. The meeting is unlikely to take place unless Deuba agrees on it. As the party’s future looks uncertain, some leaders have taken upon themselves to bridge the factional rift within the party. Senior leader Shekhar Koirala has already announced a nationwide campaign in order to boost the morale of party leaders and cadres. A team led by NC leader Gururaj Ghimire has appointed seven coordinators to carry out the campaign. It is clear that the current Congress leadership cannot meet the mounting challenges of reforming the party on multiple fronts, says Ghimire. He adds the campaign is aimed at soliciting the views and suggestions of the general public on reforming the party. Following the campaign, Ghimire and others are planning to call for a special general convention of the party to elect a new leadership. But changing the NC leadership is not an easy task. Deuba, who was re-elected party president just one and half years ago, maintains a strong command in both CWC and Parliamentary Party. The rival camp, meanwhile, is a divided house. Though it seems that senior leader Koirala is leading the rival camp in the NC, it is not so. Many leaders do not see Koirala as someone who can rival the current leadership under Deuba. The rival camp must come together if they really want to put up a real fight against Deuba. Koirala himself faces a competition against Gagan Kumar Thapa to become a rival faction leader in the party. Both of them are vying for the party presidency, as Deuba cannot run again. Though the two leaders had come together during the parliamentary party election held after last year’s general election, the division was clear among their supporters, as the Koirala panel did not vote for Thapa, who was contesting the poll against Deuba. On Monday, Thapa said on a Facebook post that he would take a tough stand against the party leadership in the coming days. He noted that he had long remained silent when the party leadership chose not to follow the set system during the party’s decision-making process. Thapa’s remarks indicate that he is willing to go on a collision course with Deuba, come what may. Youth leader Bhupendra Jung Shahi says as the party is in a very difficult situation, they have no choice but to go against the current leadership to reform the party. It remains to be seen how the Congress will clean up the mess it itself has created over decades.  

When the Pushpa Kamal Dahal-led government decided to mark the Falgun 1 of the Nepali calendar as a “People’s War Day” and announced a public holiday, there was no reaction from the major political parties, except from the pro-monarch Rastriya Prajatantra Party. The decision not only glorified the decade-long Maoists armed rebellion that killed over 17,000 people, it was also a cruel insult to those families who lost their loved ones in the conflict and are now awaiting justice. Understandably, there was an uproar about the decision on social media platforms and newspaper columns, but it was not enough for the political parties like Nepali Congress and CPN-UML to raise their own voice. Instead, they quietly assented to Prime Minister Dahal’s decision to celebrate the bloody war waged by his party. The UML, the key coalition partner at the time, remained mum, because he was working hard to continue the coalition. The NC’s silence was born out of its own ambition to break the Maoist-UML coalition. It was an ugly display of political avarice by the UML and the NC, and an act of power abuse by the Maoists. The Dahal government also made the controversial decision of providing Rs 200,000 cash handouts to the former Maoist child soldiers disqualified to serve in the integrated national army during the verification process conducted by the UN, which ended in 2007. Again, the decision was made without seeking consensus from the major political parties. It was easy to see what prompted Prime Minister Dahal to come up with such a decision. There is a widespread disenchantment against the Maoist party among former combatants. The UN-facilitated program to integrate disqualified Maoist fighters back in society by teaching them skills has not produced the desired results. Today, many former Maoist soldiers are struggling to earn a decent living, and they blame their former party for abandoning them. With his cash distribution scheme, Prime Minister Dahal wants to appease the former party soldiers. It is also a move to strengthen the Maoist party’s political base, which has been eroding over the years. After registering a major electoral victory in the Constituent Assembly election of 2008, the party has been sliding behind. It won only 32 seats in last year’s general elections, which was far behind UML’s 78 and NC’s 89. By handing out a one-time dole money, the Maoist prime minister wants to keep the former combatants happy. It does not offer any long-term solution. The Ministry of Home Affairs, which is led by Maoist leader Narayan Kaji Shrestha, has endorsed the procedure for distributing cash to former Maoist child soldiers. The problems faced by Maoist combatants are genuine, but experts say offering cash handouts is not the right solution. Former Supreme Court justice Balaram KC says if former Maoist fighters are facing problems, it must be addressed through the transitional justice commission. The current decision, he adds, is arbitrary and goes against the principle of peace process. NC senior leader Shekhar Koirala has also opposed the decision in a Facebook post, stating that the government should think about providing employment to the former child soldiers instead of cash handouts. He also raised the issue of transparency, noting that the Maoist party had failed to provide the bills of the money provided to Maoist combatants in the past as well. Other than Koirala’s Facebook post, there has not been any reactions from the NC, the main coalition partner in the Dahal government. It appears as though the ruling coalition partners have agreed to freely take any decisions that suit their interests. In order to keep the coalition going, they are apparently willing to ignore the unpopular moves made by the ministries led by one or other party in the government. Following the Maoist’s footstep, the NC-led Finance Ministry is now planning to introduce populist programs in the upcoming budget, as the party has been rattled by the unprecedented popularity of the newly formed Rastriya Swatantra Party. Political analyst Chandra Dev Bhatta says the arbitrary decision making process without any consultative process is the manifestation of political opportunism. He adds parties are making decisions to serve their interests rather than the country’s interests, he adds. If the political parties continue to act this way, people’s trust in them will continue to erode, which is already happening today. Experts also worry that as Prime Minister Dahal and his ministers are taking one populist decision after another, there is no one to monitor their activities. Former justice KC says the constitution allows a coalition government to yield a positive result and ensures stability. But the ruling parties are taking decisions which could be construed as a form of corruption. One of the major priorities of Prime Minister Dahal is to address the remaining war-era cases including the transitional justice process. But he has been taking decisions without consulting other parties and considering the legal process, which is likely to be challenged in the court further complicating the matters. Experts say the NC, as a key coalition partner, should act conscientiously and have the courage to criticize the prime minister and his party, instead of giving him the carte blanche in order to protect the hard-won coalition.

“The by-election showed that the people have lost their interest in major political parties,” Nepali Congress lawmaker Ramhari Khatiwada quoted party leader Sher Bahadur Deuba as saying at the parliamentary party meeting on Monday.   Deuba’s statement came following what looked like a sure-fire loss of the party in the by-election held in Tanahun-1. At the time of writing, Rastriya Swatantra Party’s Swarnim Wagle was poised to win the polls by a huge margin, with  the NC candidate Govinda Bhattarai trailing far behind. In Chitwan-2, where the vote count started late in the day, the RSP leader too was maintaining an early lead. The UML and NC candidates—Ram Prasad Neupane and Jit Narayan Shrestha—were in second and third positions respectively. Lamichhane, who had won from the same constituency in the 2022 general elections by a landslide, is recontesting in the polls after losing his seat over invalid citizenship case, and is very much likely to register yet another victory. Elsewhere in Bara-1, Upendra Yadav, the leader of Janata Samajbadi Party, was in the lead, with Shivachandra Kushawaha of Janamat Party following behind. Both RSP and Janamat Party are new political forces that emerged as potential contenders to the old, established parties of Nepal. Their candidates were catapulted to the federal parliament in the general elections of November last year. And the early vote count trend suggests that their ascension is yet to reach its peak. At Monday’s parliamentary party meeting, NC leader Deuba also said that the party needs to improve and introduce programs that touch the people. In essence, it was a retrospection without remorse. Deuba made the right judgment when he said that the people had lost their interest in major political parties. But was it a case of too little, too late? After all, his party was handed a serious electoral beating at its own stronghold in Tanahun-1, the constituency of President Ram Chandra Poudel, a former Congress party leader. Also of note was the fact that the NC candidate got routed despite the support from CPN (Maoist Center) and other parties in the 10-party ruling coalition. RSP candidate Wagle, who recently quit the NC, is a noted economist and a former member of the National Planning Commission. He came with a flying CV with former job experience in international organizations like the World Bank and UNDP, making him one of the election frontrunners. The NC and other parties in the ruling coalition tried to put up a strong campaign against Wagle, who was labeled as an opportunist, a non-native candidate, and an untested politician. Congress general secretary duo Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma were assigned as campaign managers of the party in Tanahun-1. In the run-up to Sunday's poll, even Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Congress leader Deuba and top leaders of other parties in the ruling coalition flew to Tanahun in a government helicopter to address a Congress election rally.  But the voters of Tanahun-1 this time decided to give an untested outsider candidate a chance by voting for ‘Ghanti’ (bell), the election symbol of RSP. If the 2022 general elections hinted at the emergence of the so-called alternative parties, the by-election outcome is surely a confirmation. It is also a lesson for the three major political parties of Nepal—NC, UML and Maoist—that the days of complacency and treating constituents as vote machines are over. These three parties have been in the helm of power for decades, with the same set of leaders becoming prime ministers over and over again. Political analyst Geja Sharma Wagle tweeted on Monday: “In the local elections, people had suggested, but major parties did not learn any lesson. In the November polls, the public message was loud and clear. The by-election results are the final warning to major political parties. Their only alternative: correct themselves or perish.” Successive governments after 1990 have failed to deliver, and the people have been keeping score all along. There are no jobs, service delivery is poor, living costs are increasing, farmers never get fertilizer on time, there is no market for agriculture products, and corruption is thriving. Many youths do not see any future in Nepal, and adults are regretting not leaving the country when they were young. Every day, approximately 1,500 youths leave the country in search of a better future. Meanwhile, major political parties and their affiliates have captured the state resources from the center to grassroots. People who are not associated with a political party have to scramble even to get basic services. This inequity and disparity was starkly noticeable during the Covid-19 pandemic, when people without political reach struggled for food, medicines and vaccines. Over the decades, the relationship between politicians and the general public is becoming like that of a master and a slave. All these socio-political maladies propelled parties like the RSP to power. It started with the local level elections in which independent candidates like Balen Shah and Harka Sampang were elected the mayor of Kathmandu and Dharan respectively. They won on the plank of good governance and development. What began as a voters’ revolution in urban centers like Kathmandu and Daharan played out in the form of RSP and Janamat Party winning key constituencies in the last year’s general elections, and it seems to be continuing looking at the by-election results. People these days are more tuned to the affairs around the country, thanks to the internet coverage and smartphone ownership. Through social media platforms, they are receiving first-hand knowledge and information on national and international affairs, and are now making up their own minds. Political analysts say political parties and their leaders should realize that they no longer can manipulate the voters ahead of the election season. All their double standards and doublespeak can easily be found out. It is no wonder then that a party like RSP, with no organizational strength to speak of, is threatening to eat up the political bases of the NC, UML, and Maoist. It seems like only staunch party supporters and cadres who are taking benefits from their parties are voting for their candidates. Congress leader Gunaraj Ghimire told ApEx on Monday that if they fail to correct their course now, they cannot stop the emergence of a new political force. But as RSP solidifies its position in national politics, it has its own lesson to learn from its electoral exploits. Lamichhane and the co should honor the will of the people by leading by example and delivering on the promises of good governance. Lamichhane, a TV presenter turned politician, should know better than anyone the weight of trust that people have put on him and his 10-month-old party. Despite the controversies that Lamichhane himself and his party leaders have courted in the recent months, it appears that the people still have faith in RSP. The court case over Lamichhane’s invalid citizenship and double passport was forgiven by his supporters. Even when RSP lawmaker Dhak Kumar Shrestha was recently heard on a recorded phone conversation asking for a bribe from a businessman, there were many people who defended the party. It was praiseworthy of the RSP to promptly investigate Shrestha and relieve him from all party posts and responsibilities. Many people have regarded the incident as an exemplary move. Like Shrestha, Krishna Bahadur Mahara of the Maoists and Gokul Prasad Baskota of the UML, too, had been caught red-handed soliciting  bribes, but they faced no disciplinary action from their parties. Now the RSP has the chance to reciprocate to the unconditional support shown by the people by way of their work. As for the major parties, the message is clear as it had been all along, for years and years: sort yourself out.  

Except for India and Bhutan, all South Asian countries have become a part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a mega infrastructure project launched by Xi Jinping in 2013. Nepal has been adopting a cautious approach ever since it signed a BRI framework agreement with China in 2017. The agreement talks about various areas of cooperation including policy exchanges, trade connectivity, financial integration and people connectivity. Initially, Nepal, haphazardly and without knowledge, proposed 35 projects to be developed under the BRI. The project numbers were later reduced to nine following the advice from Beijing that Nepal should come up with fewer but commercially viable development projects. But there has not been any progress on any of those projects, as the two countries are yet to finalize the BRI implementation plan. Some hydropower projects proposed under the BRI scheme have been awarded to Indian companies. It appears that the implementation of President Xi’s flagship program is becoming a difficult task for the Nepal government. Even Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist party is not so keen about taking the BRI projects forward, lest it should divide his fragile10-party coalition. A powerful communist government, which was led by KP Sharma Oli from 2018 to 2021, had also not taken any concrete steps on the BRI. The BRI’s reputation as a potential ‘debt trap’ through which Beijing could establish its hegemony is one of the chief reasons why the Nepal government and political parties are lacking in motivation and commitment to the program. Many commercially unfeasible projects under the BRI in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Kenya, among other countries, may have alarmed Nepali leaders. The controversy over China-funded Pokhara International Airport has further tainted the BRI’s image in Nepal.  On January 1 this year, Nepal inaugurated the airport, which was built under Chinese loan but not under the BRI. The loan agreement was inked in 2016, a year before Nepal formally became part of BRI.  But a senior official from the Chinese Embassy prompted the Nepal government’s rebuttal. A senior  Chinese told this writer that since the BRI was launched in 2013, all the projects implemented thereafter, which include the Pokhara airport, automatically fall under the initiative. The official says China does not wish to make it a big issue if Nepal does not want the airport project to be listed under the BRI. The airport has already come into operation, but so far it has failed to attract international flights. If the Rs 22bn airport fails to make income, the government is sure to face a burden to pay off the loan. In an interview with this journalist, Bikram Raj Gautam, the airport chief, says as it is a long-term investment, it could take some time for the airport to generate income. So there is no debt worry among government officials as they say that the airport was constructed keeping in mind that the government can repay the loans. One major project under the BRI is the cross-border Kathmandu Kerung Railway, for which the Chinese side is conducting a feasibility study. Though the project construction may not take place immediately, China has put it in its long-term plan as a gateway to South Asia. A joint communiqué issued after the second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in 2018 included Nepal-China Trans-Himalayan Multi-Dimensional Connectivity and Nepal-China cross-border railway. If the trans-border railway moves ahead, it will become one of the major BRI flagship projects in South Asia. But Nepal and China are yet to discuss its investment modality. China has agreed to bear the cost of both pre-feasibility study and feasibility study. Nepal has proposed developing the project under grant assistance, but the Chinese side is mum on it. Nepal’s major political parties—Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center)—are on the same page when it comes to the BRI. They are of the view that Nepal cannot afford to take high-interest Chinese loans to finance its development projects. However, the communist parties continue to speak positively on the BRI in order to appease China. Mainly communist leaders even blame non-communist parties of taking a rigid position on the BRI to spoil the relationship with China. In 2022, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba reportedly told the visiting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi that considering the looming economic crisis, Nepal cannot take loans under BRI to finance projects. Many took this statement as anti-BRI posture. But this is exactly what communist party leaders are saying to the Chinese side in private meetings. In Nepal, the BRI is perceived as an exclusive infrastructure project, but there are other components as well, such as policy cooperation, unimpeded trade, financial integration and people-to-people connectivity. Lately, the Chinese side has been insisting that whatever they cooperate on or provide assistance to bilaterally is under the BRI framework. Such a position has only made Nepal’s bilateral engagements with China more difficult. More recently, China has come up with new programs such as Global Development Initiative (GDI), Global Security Initiative (GSI) and Global Civilizational Initiative (GCI), which are aimed at building an alternative global order to counter the West, particularly the US. These initiatives aim to promote Chinese values, development models and security issues mainly in the Global South. For a country like Nepal, so strategically placed between China and India, taking positions on these initiatives are going to be challenging to say the least. Our political leadership has a limited and often misleading understanding about these projects, and our academia is heavily influenced by either Western or Chinese narratives. Taking an objective and impartial position under such conditions will be difficult. This is exactly what had happened regarding the American MCC project in Nepal. Dealing with China is going to be more complex in the days to come. It will do well for our political leadership to come up with a unified position.