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The Nepali Congress has become a visionless and missionless political party. Ask the ordinary party cadres about the party’s future and they will tell you there isn’t one.

This past week I interacted with several NC cadres and the key takeaway from these exchanges was that they no longer feel confident regarding the party’s future.

Frustration and hopelessness consume the party cadres these days and they put the blame squarely on the top leadership. They say the leaders on top have failed to rouse the party out from the status quo. Many local-level cadres are deserting to other parties, because they no longer believe that the NC can lead the country. 

Yes, there are those who take comfort in the knowledge that the Congress is still the largest party and that its president, Sher Bahadur Deuba, is poised to become the next prime minister. But most of them are affiliated to the Deuba camp and consider the party leadership to be above and beyond reproach.

The harsh reality is that the NC is losing its supporters left, right and center. The problems that the party faces today run from the center to the grassroots. The fact that the Pushpa Kamal Dahal-led government, in which the Congress serves as a key coalition partner, has been unable to revive the faltering economy and improve governance has only deepened the discontent among party cadres. 

There are strong voices inside the NC that the party should pull out its support to the Dahal government and forge a coalition with the CPN-UML, the main opposition. The UML has hinted that it could support Deuba as a prime minister if the NC leaves the current coalition. But even if this scenario comes to pass, it will only guarantee Congress’s leadership of government for the next four years. It will neither resolve the party’s organizational dysfunction, nor heal the factional rift. 
 

While the second-rung leaders of the NC and UML are said to be discussing a possible alliance between the two parties, there hasn’t been any substantial talks between Deuba and KP Sharma Oli, the UML chairman. 

At the same time, there are alternative views inside the NC that continuing the current alliance with Dahal’s CPN (Maoist Center) will serve the party's interests in the long-run. Leaders who subscribe to this view believe that the party cannot retain its current position without electoral alliance with the Maoist in the next election. Their outlook goes against those who strongly believe that the Congress party should contest the next election as a single party. 

Leaders who think that the NC should solely fight the next election include the general secretary duo, Gagan Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Shara, and senior leader, Shekhar Koirala. 

A senior Congress leader who spoke with ApEx on condition of anonymity said: “Some of our friends are talking about contesting the next election as a single party, but the reality is completely different. Without an electoral alliance, the NC has no chance of winning.” 

If the NC were to enter the fray, there is a chance that the Maoist could ally with the UML—something that had occurred during the 2017 polls, which resulted in an unprecedented electoral drubbing for the NC.  

The Congress leader said that the 2023 by-election outcome in which the party lost in its historic stronghold is a warning sign for those leaders who are advocating for the party to contest the next election alone.  

Nevertheless, the proponents of the idea are trying to endorse the proposal from the party's Mahasamiti meeting. NC President Deuba, however, is dead set against endorsing such a proposal, as it could rattle the current coalition. Dahal could break the alliance with the NC, blowing Deuba’s chances of becoming prime minister. 

Following the 2022 general elections, in which the NC, Maoists and some fringe parties had contested as allies against the UML, the NC emerged as the largest national party. However, the Maoists did not do so well, polling in third after the UML with a big gap between them. And when Deuba refused to hand over the post of prime minister to Dahal as per their pre-election agreement, the latter had joined hands with the UML, leaving the NC desperate. 

The Maoist-UML coalition, however, did not last long as a result of power struggle between Dahal and Oli. The Congress eventually got back with the Maoists, offering Dahal the premiership for two years of the full five-year term and securing the post of president for the party. 

Deuba has no intention to irritate the Maoists and lose his chance of becoming the prime minister. Some leaders say Deuba’s blind ambition to occupy the executive’s chair while ignoring the pressing task of strengthening the party organization and support base is eating away at the NC’s reputation.  

Even a year after the general elections, the party's activities are almost zero. NC ministers in the Dahal-led government have not just failed to deliver, they have made a string of controversial decisions. Factional disputes have divided the party from the leadership to rank and file. On several national issues, the party has not made its official position known.

One of the serious blows to the party's reputation was the arrest of its senior leader and former home minister, Bal Krishna Khand, in a corruption case. There is an environment of fear within the party. Many party leaders do not dare criticize the Dahal-led government, because they fear they could be indicted in past corruption cases.

Top leaders' popularity graph, including that of youth leaders Thapa and Sharma, is at a historic low. For a long time, there have been calls from the NC cadres to the central leadership to reform the party, but there is a lack of unity among top leaders. The rivalry between Thapa and Koirala, two influential leaders after Deuba, is increasing, as both are eyeing for the post of party president.

“The Nepali Congress appears visionless, missionless and rudderless at the moment,” said Nainsingh Mahar, NC’s Central Working Committee member. 

Talks about holding a meeting of the party’s Mahasamiti, a high policy-making body, have not made any progress. Thapa and Sharma blame Deuba for repeatedly  postponing the crucial gathering. The Deuba faction, on the other hand, say that Thapa and Sharma, as general secretaries, have failed to make the necessary preparations for the meeting. 

“It is high time that the top leaders got their act together and came up with a clear vision for the party’s future,” said Mahar.  

It is a big task when ambition and rivalry run amok in the grand old party.

The Nepali Congress (NC) has decided to postpone the schedule of its Mahasamiti meeting by two weeks. The postponement is attributed to Friday's earthquake in Karnali Province and the availability issue of a meeting hall.

During the NC Central Executive Committee meeting on Sunday, it was decided to reschedule the meeting from December 15 to 18 this year. The meeting will be held at the Godavari-based Sunrise Convention Centre in Lalitpur. Initially, the event was set to take place from November 29 to December 1.

The party has adopted the policy of suspending all formal events till the Tihar festival, considering the quake's impact in western Nepal, it is said.

In the meantime, the meeting decided to draw the government's attention towards the urgency to expedite its rescue, relief and rehabilitation efforts in the quake-hit areas, acknowledging the efforts made so far.

Likewise, the meeting said the monetary assistance of Rs five million announced by the party for the survivors is not sufficient and has urged the party to secure more aid for them.

It also called for forming a committee to monitor and facilitate the relief distribution by ensuring that there are no irregularities in the process.

Nepali Congress has decided to provide Rs 5 million to the government fund for the rescue, relief and rehabilitation of earthquake victims. 

Congress Chief Secretary Kirshna Prasad Paudel said that the party has decided to provide Rs 5 million to the government fund for the rescue, relief and rehabilitation of quake victims in Jajarkot and Rukum West.

“An earthquake measuring 6.4 in the Richter scale that struck Jajarkot district at 11: 47 pm on Friday, leaving hundreds of people dead and injured and destroying property worth millions has left the entire Nepali people sad,” reads a statement issued by the Nepali Congress. “In this time, the Nepali Congress appealed to the government and political parties among others to unite together to face this disaster.”

The Congress has also appealed to all those living in the country and abroad to join the campaign of humanitarian service with an open heart.

Aa per the party’s statute, Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba cannot run for a third consecutive term. Given his age and the intra-party dynamics, he is unlikely to take initiatives to amend the statute to remove the term limits. 

In this scenario, the stage is set for a new generation of leaders to take the reins of the party. The list of potential contenders is long and includes figures like Gagan Thapa, Shekhar Koirala, Prakash Man Singh, Bimalendra Nidhi and Purna Bahadur Khadka. But one thing is clear: As Deuba wields a majority within the party’s Central Working Committee, Parliamentary Party and Mahasamiti, securing his vote of confidence is crucial for the Congress presidential hopefuls.

Currently, all eyes are on incumbent General Secretary Gagan Thapa and the Koirala family scion Shekhar Koirala. Gagan Thapa and Shekhar Koirala were in the same camp during the 14th General Convention, but as they aspire for the top job, the distance between them is widening. 

Many insiders believe that Koirala is strategically getting closer to Deuba to clinch the party presidency. Their budding bonhomie was apparent when Koriala praised Deuba’s leadership during a TV interview.

Thapa, on the other hand, has traversed a winding path within the party. His journey, marked by alliances and shifts, has led him to his current position as the party’s general secretary. Yet, questions abound regarding his loyalty and next move.

In the 13th General Convention, where Thapa was defeated in the general secretary race, his vote helped Deuba secure the presidency. In return, Deuba appointed Thapa as the Health and Population Minister under the Cabinet of CPN (Maoist Center) Chair Puspa Kamal Dahal.

However, after the first federal election in 2017, Thapa shifted his position. Following the election, Deuba and former Deputy PM Prakashman Singh were seen as contenders for the position of parliamentary party leader. However, Thapa’s group supported Singh against Deuba’s candidate, and Singh lost in the parliamentary party’s election.

In the 14th General Convention, Thapa's ambitions became more prominent, and he aligned with the Koirala camp against Singh and Sitaula. In the Parliamentary Party election of 2023, Thapa stood against Deuba, sidelining Koirala. Before the parliamentary party's candidate selection, Shekhar's group and Thapa assured that in the upcoming leadership opportunity, they would propose Koirala for the top post. However, it now appears that Thapa is bypassing Koirala in various aspects. Still, leaders from the Shekhar-Gagan camp are trying to resolve their disputes. They propose Koirala as the party president and Thapa as the second-in-command. 

However, members from the Thapa camp say that leadership is not bestowed as a gift; it is a demand of the times, and Thapa will vie for the presidency in the 15th General Convention.

Deuba and Koirala clan

Deuba, a trustee of BP Koirala, the founding leader of Nepali Congress, and a supporter of Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, was defeated in the leadership race against Girija Prasad Koirala and Sushil Koirala. After Sushil's passing, he competed against Ramchandra Poudel and Shekhar Koirala and secured the Congress presidency on both occasions.

Shashank Koirala, who emerged as a prominent figure during the 13th General Convention, had initially supported Deuba's candidacy and continued to do so during the 14th General Convention. However, the 14th General Convention created an environment where the members of the Koirala clan—Shekhar, Shashank and Sujata— found themselves in separate camps, which ultimately benefited Deuba. Shashank now appears to be closer to Deuba, and there is a growing thaw between Deuba and Shekhar. Shashank has indicated that he is preparing to contest the 15th General Convention for the presidency, regardless of support from Shekhar or not. Shashank believes that he has a better understanding of the Congress and the challenges it faces. 

Prakash Rasaili, a leader from the Shekhar-Gagan faction, believes that despite Shashank's skills as a politician, Deuba is unlikely to hand over the party leadership to the Koirala clan. Deuba's strategy, he says, is to create divisions in the opposition camp to ensure an easy victory for his own candidate. Relations between Shashank and Thapa were not cordial during the 14th Convention, as Shashank felt he was bypassed. A leader close to Shashank says that they are cautious about Thapa potentially betraying them at any time.

Shashank Koirala, Prakash Man Singh and Bimalendra Nidhi engaged in intense discussions during the 14th General Convention of the party. With the rising prominence of BP Koirala's and Mahendranarayan Nidhi's sons in political cooperation, the NC was witnessing the emergence of a new wave.

During discussions led by the trio, they reached an agreement that one among them would run for the position of Party presidency, while the other two would provide their support. However, as the registration for candidacy approached in the first phase of the Convention, both Singh and Nidhi registered their candidacies, while Shashank supported Deuba.

During the first phase of the convention, no candidate could garner the required 51 percent of votes to secure victory. So a second round of voting took place. In the first phase, Singh received the third-highest number of votes and Nidhi secured the fourth-highest. Despite their aspirations of becoming the party president, Singh and Nidhi supported Deuba.

During this time, Deuba faced allegations of withdrawing support from Singh after making promises.

Will Khadka become Deuba's successor?

There is no certainty as to who will become the NC president, but there are some early indications. Top leaders from Deuba's camp, such as Purna Bahadur Khadka and Gopal Man Shrestha, are natural candidates for the party presidency. However, Shrestha's influence within the party is limited.

Regarding the allegations of Bal Krishna Khand's involvement in the fake Bhutanese refugee scandal, there is speculation among the opposition about Deuba's choice for his successor. This controversy has brought Khadka forward as a potential candidate from the Deuba faction. 

Badri Sigdel, the former president of Nepal Press Union, says Khadka’s experiences, including key roles during the party's previous split, as well as positions like party general secretary, vice-president, and current Deputy Prime Minister, highlight his seniority within the party. 

Deuba has not explicitly assured support to Khadka so far. This has led to a debate on Arzoo Deuba's position within the party. Leaders suggest that she is unlikely to run for party presidency but may contest for a vital office bearer position.

Congress leader Rasaili believes that despite Deuba's support, the group in which Arzoo becomes a candidate is destined for defeat. "There is no unity even within the Deuba group. Today, Deuba, who is the president and the leader of the parliamentary party, and who is likely to become the prime minister in the near future, is facing opposition from leaders within his own group. If he is not the party president tomorrow, the situation will be different. Everyone should pursue their own politics; leaders can't just follow Deuba's lead."

Sigdel holds a different opinion. He says: "Sher Bahadur Deuba, who has led the party for two terms, fought against the Koiralas in the past and has been prime minister five times, has a strong grip on the party. Without Deuba's support, no one can win the presidency, given the strong organization he has built. Even a small fraction of support from Deuba's camp can make a significant difference."

A central committee member close to Deuba says that since the Congress is currently undergoing internal reformation, there is no clear picture of who will be the candidates for the next general convention. Regarding Khadka’s chance of getting Deuba’s nod, he says: "The process of breaking up and rebuilding factions is still ongoing, so we have not reached a point where Khadka can be definitively called Deuba's successor."