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The University of Pennsylvania asked 840 American adults in late March and then in mid-July about their beliefs about the origins of the novel coronavirus. In March, 28 percent of the respondents said the coronavirus was a Chinese bio-weapon unleashed on the US. By July, 37 percent of the same respondents espoused the bio-weapon theory.

US President Donald Trump has time and again accused China of concocting the ‘China virus’. He had also downplayed the dangers of Covid-19 and made bogus claims about it.

Around three months ago, BJP leader Imarti Devi said the coronavirus could not infect her as she was literally born on cow-dung.

Nepal too is fertile ground for such conspiracy theories. The most common corona-related conspiracy theories people here believe in: it’s a ‘plandemic’ rather than a pandemic, the fear is greatly exaggerated, Covid-19 is no more than common cold, and it’s a Chinese ploy.

Shamsher Shah, 45, a Kathmandu-based businessman, is sure that Covid-19 is a plandemic (being peddled by those with vested interests). He also says the fear surrounding Covid-19 are exaggerated.

Shamsher Shah

“I, along with some others, even visited the Ministry of Health and Population to see those who had died from corona infection. But they wouldn’t allow us,” he says. He says the relatives of those who have supposedly died of the virus are not allowed to cremate them even though there is no proof the virus can be transmitted from dead bodies. “Surely, something is amiss,” Shah suspects.

Shah says people are dying of fear and not getting treated for other diseases. “If it is so dangerous, why is the death rate so low? How is it possible that over 90 percent get well without any treatment?” he asks. 

Shreeram Gautam, 38, from Gulmi, says Covid-19 is no more than seasonal flu, and its dangers have been greatly exaggerated. 

He questions how a beggar who comes in contact with thousands of people everyone does not get it yet a prisoner locked inside a room does. Moreover, “infections spiked during the strict lockdown, not when things started opening up.” He says these things make him skeptical if the Covid-19 is even a real virus.  

Shreeram Gautam

Pawan Sharma, 23, a student from Rupandehi, thinks Covid-19 is part of China’s game to maintain its political and economic dominance. “How is it that it started in China but the whole of China did not suffer? In fact, China has already controlled it even as other countries struggle to do so.”

Dipak Bhattarai, 33, a taxi driver in Kathmandu, offers a similar logic. “The death rate is too low to be afraid and whoever has died mostly had other diseases,” he says. Bhattarai doubts the virus is spread from person to person even if they sit side by side.

Dipak Bhattarai

He says people are needlessly getting depressed out of the fear of catching the virus. “Weren’t there other diseases that were killing people before Covid-19?”

Rakesh Jha, 31, an IT officer in Janakpur, for his part, believes Covid-19 is a man-made virus. “Covid-19 has traveled from Wuhan to all parts of the globe but not to Beijing, how come?” he asks. He too says it’s all part of Chinese ploy to undercut its chief geopolitical rivals.

Rakesh Jha

Likewise, Khom Kumari Khatiwada, 75, from Sunsari district offers a religious perspective. “There are so many sinners in the world these days. They have lost their dharma and greatly angered God and hence deadly viruses like this ensue,” she says.

Kripa Sigdel, a psychologist and faculty member at Padma Kanya Campus, says people learn by imitating and observing their role models. “Some influencers and public figures are publicly citing these conspiracy theories. People are greatly influenced by their ideas,” she adds. 

She gives the example of Prime Minister KP Oli who has said that Covid-19 is no different to common flu and can be cured by consuming hot water and turmeric. “Now those who consider him credible are likely to believe his Covid-19 theory as well.” 

Kripa Sigdel

Gautam from Gulmi says his opinions are self-made, “based on what I saw, experienced, and felt.” Bhattarai, Sharma, and Shah too claim to have come to their conclusions on their own. “For example,” says Bhattarai, “why did my close friend get infected but nothing happened to me?”

Sigdel, the psychologist, suspects most conspiracy-theory peddlers are suffering from confirmation bias. “People like to justify their beliefs. If we believe in something we only seek information that confirms that belief.”

“Does anyone know if the odd/even rule is still applicable?”

“How strict is the traffic checking for the odd/even rule in Kathmandu?”
“The odd/even system has no meaning when everything else is open in the city.”

“There was no checking yesterday so I took out my bike today. But the traffic police caught me.   This is so unfair.”

“How long do you think the odd/even system will be enforced? We’re having so much problems with conveyance every day.”

If you are a regular social media user, you might have read one or more of these complaints. Ever since Nepal ended its first lockdown in the third week of July, a vehicle rationing system had been in force in Kathmandu valley, home to one-thirds of vehicles registered in the country. (There are roughly above 1.1 million vehicles in the valley).

The vehicles with odd or even numbers are allowed on the streets corresponding to the Nepali dates: odd numbers on odd dates and even numbers on even dates. The rule exempts vehicles used for emergency services and transport of food and essentials.

This odd/even system was one of many measures the government introduced for the management of Covid-19 pandemic in Nepal. And like most of its efforts, this rule has also not gone down well with common folks. Especially with the economy only just starting to come back to life, the consensus on the odd/even system is negative. After coming across multiple social media posts bashing this system and then talking to people directly affected by this rule, we can say most of them reckon this rule is unnecessary, irrational, and even counterproductive.

Odd rule

“Time for odd even rule to go… we cannot resume economy without proper mobility,” Rohit Marwadi, a young businessperson, recently posted on his Facebook page. In a further conversation with Marwadi, he revealed how the odd/even system has hampered his business and raised operating costs.

“I am into churpi production and sales. Constant travel around the city is a must for us,” Marwadi says. “As our mobility has become limited due to this odd/even rule, we’ve had transport troubles and our operating costs have soared.”

Marwadi has given his motorcycle to one of his staffs so that they have bikes with both odd and even plates. He himself uses ride-sharing services to go to work. His other staff have also been managing accordingly, he says.

“More than myself or my business, I am more worried about those forced to use public transport or pay comparatively more than usual fares for ride sharing services and taxis, which they might not be able to do,” Marwadi says.

Like Marwadi, most people are unaware of how the odd/even rule is helping fight Covid-19. It has reduced traffic to an extent in all three cities of Kathmandu valley, but its direct impact on infection-reduction is unproven. Nor has the government published any findings that show the effectiveness of the odd/even system in breaking the infection chain.

“Public compliance works more than any of these rules,” says infection prevention specialist Manish Basistha. “Even if there are 10 people out there, and all of them comply with safety measures, the disease-spread is minimal. But even if there are only five people and none of them are compliant, the risk increases disproportionally.” So the number of people going to work or out there in the public does not matter so long as they are compliant with healthcare protocols. In short, Basistha believes the odd/even system is neither effective nor necessary, especially with people openly flouting basic protocols on public transport and public places.

Tricked by your brain?

Even the spokesperson for the Metropolitan Traffic Police Department, SP Rameshwar Prasad Yadav, does not sound confident about the effectiveness of the vehicle rationing system in decreasing Covid-19 transmissions. “The basic idea is to reduce crowds in public areas. This is why the government wanted us to implement the odd/even system,” says Yadav as he tries to explain that the traffic police is only doing its part. “It is not our decision anyway. We only do as instructed.”

As for alleged irregularities in traffic checking for odd/even compliance, Yadav claims it is deliberate. The traffic police relocate their checkpoints frequently so that people do not find a way around them. Also, during rush hours, the checkpoints might be relocated to avoid congestions in busy areas. “It’s also human psychology. People who get caught think the checking is strict but people who don’t get caught think there’s no checking at all.”

But the fact is, Yadav clarifies, 44 units of traffic police are deployed at 137 different places in the Valley and around 1,000-1,200 vehicles are stopped for non-compliance every day. Some of them are let go with a warning while others are penalized, depending on the situation.

Asked if it is wise to force people who own vehicles into public transport, Yadav replies that the odd-even rule has been imposed for the greater good. “Only around 10 percent of people own vehicles in the valley. This system is for the rest,” Yadav says. “And since we are doing this to control infection, we also request the people to comply. Please do not go out unless absolutely necessary.”

No lockdown plans

Janak Raj Dahal, CDO of Kathmandu district, has the same request. The vehicle rationing system has been introduced to cut public mobility but it can work only if the public complies. “People need to share at least half the responsibility at a difficult time like this,” Dahal says. “We are not enforcing these measures just to harass the public. It is for their own good.”

On the effectiveness of the rationing system, Dahal claims that despite constant complains and negative public perception, the odd/even rule has helped manage traffic and control unnecessary movement in the valley. He is aware of the problems surrounding rule enforcement and the inconvenience for vehicle owners but the priority right now is Covid-19 management, he explains.

Based on our conversations with government officials, it is safe to assume that the vehicle rationing system will be in place for a few more months.

Another general concern—the lockdown—is also not on the cards, unlike what has been rumored, government officials explained. “We have not been informed about a third lockdown yet,” Dahal says. “There has as yet been no discussion on this in the District Disaster Management Committee, so the possibilities are slim.”

On contacting the Home Ministry about the vehicle rationing system and the rumored lockdown, joint secretary and ministry spokesperson Chakra Bahadur Budha dismissed the concerns, saying the rationing system was the CDO’s call and the home ministry had nothing to do with it. On the lockdown, Budha blamed the media for spreading rumors and creating unnecessary panic.

Nepal is now connected to the Asian Highway, a 32-country road network that aims to expand intra-country trade and connectivity, after India completed the work of widening the West Bengal-Kakadvitta section. This section of the highway will start at Bangkok, Thailand and pass through Myanmar, Bangladesh and India, and reach Karachi, Pakistan from New Delhi, via Nepal’s East-West Highway.

With the expansion of the road network, Nepali rural businesses now hope reach international markets near and far. Tikaraj Dhakal, president of the Jhapa Chamber of Commerce and Industry and an entrepreneur, says, “When the Asian Highway comes into operation, our agricultural produce will easily find international markets.”

A four-lane 'Miteri Bridge' has also been built on the Mechi River at the eastern gate of Nepal with the assistance of the Asian Development Bank’s Asia Sub-Regional Economic Cooperation-Road Network Project. Keshav Kumar Sharma, director general of the Road Department, informs that Nepal is now connected to the 'A Class' Asian Highway. “When the road is wide, the border becomes more economically vibrant,” says Rishi Timsina, president of the Mechi Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

India has built a 790-meter-long bridge over the Mechi River on the Nepal-India border, funded with a loan of 1.5 billion Indian rupees. “The dilapidated and narrow Mechi Bridge was inconvenient for transport as it was difficult to move large containers,” says Dhurba Raj Bishwakarma, head of customs at the Mechi Customs Office, Kakadvitta. “Now that the new bridge has been built, transport has greatly eased. Vehicles ranging from bicycles to large container bearing trucks can easily pass without having to stay in a jam for hours on end.”  Bishwakarma informs that India has set up a port at Jalpaiguri near Siliguri to facilitate trade with Nepal, Bangladesh, and Bhutan.

In 2016, there was an agreement between the then Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi to build an expanded bridge over the Mechi River. Construction formally started in February 2017. A four-lane road has now been built up to Kakadvitta Bus Park along with the four-lane bridge on the Mechi River on the Nepal-India border, in what will be an approach road in the Asian Highway system.

India had built the Asian Highway bordering West Bengal only two years ago. After the bridge-building at Kakadvitta, Silguri, which 28 km away, has become more accessible.

“Connecting with the Asian Highway will also help our tourism,” says Netra Karki, a local tourism entrepreneur, noting that the narrow bridges on the Kakadvitta-Panityanki road had made traffic uncomfortable.

Former President of Jhapa Chamber of Commerce and Industry Vijay Dalimiya says the Asian Highway is an opportunity for Nepal to expand and promote trade. “The highway will facilitate trade with India, which in turn will also boost Nepal’s trade with Bangladesh and Bhutan,” says Dalmiya.

Sitaram Dahal, 25, a cloth-store owner in Kathmandu, traveled to Pokhara and Kushma for paragliding and swing this Dashain. The lure was apparent. The cost of paragliding had plummeted, from Rs 7,000 to Rs 3,000. And airfare was also cheaper by 10 percent. What more could he ask for?

Sitaram Dahal

The purpose of his travel was “refreshment”. He thinks this is not the time to fear but to lead a normal life by adopting safety measures. “We stayed in, for almost six months. Now it is time for some refreshment.”

After the lifting of the lockdown, Hriday Regmi, 25, a Kanchanpur native who works at a bank in Kathmandu, visited Kakani, Sauraha, and Chandragiri for night stays. He rued not getting a chance to travel since he had joined university and a new job at the same time. “So, I did not want to waste the little leisure time I had, bolted inside my home,” he adds. Regmi also feels the festive season is the right time to contribute to internal tourism.

Hriday Regmi

He agrees that the fear of covid is pervasive. “But I see no alternative to living with the pandemic by taking precautions.” Regmi says that the hotels and resorts he stayed in were low-fare. “The packages were available at almost 35 percent discount.”

Suruchi Thapa, 21, a student in Kathmandu, traveled to Baraha Pokhari, Lamjung on October 29 with her family, for “religious and refreshment purposes”. “In Baraha Pokhari, people take bath on the full moon day. We went there as pilgrims,” she adds. Thapa says the natural beauty there was worth watching as well, with vistas of beautiful snow-capped mountains all around. 

Likewise, Sabin Adhikari, 30, a businessman from Dhading, went to Rara Lake along with his friends before Dashain. He wanted to explore nature there and learn about locals’ lifestyles. “I am ready to live with covid. My motto is: Live a normal life, travel and be as safe as you can. I don’t need to be stuck at home,” he says. He didn’t factor in travel costs but says the experience was worth all the money he spent.

Sabin Adhikari

Gita Chimoriya, a 27-year-old Lalitpur-based journalist, traveled to Mardi with her friends this Dashain. She visited Pokhara on her way back home. “We traveled during the festival because that is the only time I get some time away from my study and job,” she says. Mardi was open for trekking and she needed a break.

Gita Chimoriya

Safety first

All these travelers claim to have considered safety. They say that though they traveled, they did so carefully, by adopting proper safety measures. 

Dahal had to return to Kathmandu on bus. He was relieved when he saw safety measures being adopted in the bus too. “Masks and sanitizers were compulsory and there was social distancing inside the bus,” he says. Apart from personally using masks and sanitizers and avoiding contact, for safety, Dahal also did not stay at a hotel but at a friend’s.

Regmi for one did not find safety measures in hotels and resorts he stayed at different places in adequate. “We have to take care of ourselves while we have fun,” he says.

Thapa, the Baraha Pokhari visitor, says the travel, done in their own vehicle, was completely safe too. “We did not stay in any hotel or resort but camped in jungle and avoided contact.”

Suruchi Thapa

According to Adhikari, his group avoided direct contact with other people at Rara and always had masks and sanitizers handy. They had done proper research, too, including on hotels. “I won’t say they were completely safe but the hotels we visited were doing their bit to give the travelers some sense of security.”

Chimoriya, who went to Mardi, says she didn’t find folks in Pokhara careful with covid restrictions. “But the staff of the hotels on our trekking route were trained in safety protocols. That made us feel safer,” she adds.

Matter of survival

 Hotel owners at tourist destinations say not enough tourists are coming for the sustainability of their business.

Arjun Chhetri, owner at Hotel Devis Fall View, Pokhara says the number of his guests was just 30 percent this festive season, compared to the same time previous years. “We used to house students on school tours and religious pilgrims. They are not coming now,” he adds. 

Arjun Chhteri

As his hotel was always cheap, Chhetri did not lower costs during the pandemic. He further adds that current guests are mostly regular visitors and well acquainted with room rates.

At Devis Fall View, guests have to wash their hands with soap and water during their entry. But the guests have to bring their own masks and sanitizers, and Chhetri does not sanitize his rooms. He says the fear of covid is greatly exaggerated, and in any case he would not be able to afford more safety measures. “Right now I don’t even make enough to pay my rent,” he says.

Surendra Poudel, owner of Hotel Mirage at Sauraha, Chitwan, says his hotel is 40-60 percent full, even in this peak season. His hotel has some covid protocols. “We try to keep a recently vacated room empty for a day,” he says. He claims to regularly clean and sanitize rooms and to take cleaning staffs’ safety into serious consideration.

Surendra Poudel

Besides the compulsory temperature check and sanitization at entry, “guests also apply their own safety measures.” 

Some previous package programs like group Tharu cultural dance is unavailable now. And the cost of the package has been reduced. “Though our earnings have nosedived, we are still offering packages at 20 percent discount,” Poudel says. “Right now, it’s a matter of survival.”