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As the globe observes the International Day for Glaciers on March 21, the timing seems more like a warning than a celebration. From the peaks, the alarm is already beginning to trickle down. The UN's creation of this day in the second year of the Decadal Action for Cryospheric Science (2025-2034) represents a shift in our understanding of the high-altitude glaciers and snowpacks that support more than a billion people in South Asia. Our cryosphere is melting due to human-caused warming, making it a ticking time bomb rather than a static landscape. Temperatures in the Hindu Kush Himalayas are rising 0.3°C to 0.7°C more quickly than the global average. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), which pose a direct threat to the "Third Pole," are being fueled by this quick thaw. As we battle to save these crucial "water towers," Nepal's glacial landscapes must act as both a global laboratory for climate science and the front line for survival over the course of the next ten years.

Understanding the GLOF threat

Researchers at ICIMOD estimate that Nepal's glacier lakes currently make up a staggering 2.6% to 3.6% of the nation's total area, or about 3,252 unique lakes. However, they are the epicenters of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), not merely immobile masses of water. Thermal expansion causes glacial lakes to grow and press against their natural rock and ice as temperatures rise. The science underlying GLOF is that this produces a volatile mixture of hydro-meteorological elements that can cause a catastrophic eruption. The terrain is pushed to a critical threshold for a disastrous Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) by this pressure build-up and erratic weather patterns.

The moraine dams are weakened structurally by the freeze-thaw cycles, and these delicate structures are further destabilized by rising sediment loads. These loose rock "walls" that contain the water, are known as moraine dams. As "living laboratories," these summits record a significant change in the climate. Heavy sediment loads are gradually compromising the structural integrity of these moraine dams, posing a concern that needs immediate action and attention.

Crisis beyond the Peaks

The statistics from ICIMOD and the IPCC are staggering. The central and eastern Himalayas lost around 30% of their snow cover in just three decades, according to recent research, including findings published in The Cryosphere (2026). By the end of the century, up to 80% of the glacier volume may disappear if we continue to follow the same path. What we are witnessing is not just a transformation of the landscape, but a fundamental disruption of the lifelines for a quarter of the world's population because these glacial systems are the primary water source for more than two billion people downstream. Scientists now refer to GLOF events as "cascading hazards," in which a glacier's initial collapse triggers a series of environmental and societal disasters, from immediate floods to long-term water shortages for entire nations.

Why our old maps no longer work?

The latest disasters in Rasuwagadhi (2025) and Thame (2024) have essentially destroyed our conventional risk models. Analyst used historical data to forecast floods for many years, but the mountains are no longer adhering to the previous guidelines. With the frozen earth thawing by up to 23 centimeters annually, scientists now warn that permafrost degradation is undermining the Himalayas' basic foundations. This new reality is exemplified by the Thame Valley disaster of 2024. Over 450,000 cubic meters of debris-filled water were spilled when a rock avalanche struck the Thyanbo glacier lake. The 2025 surge in Rasuwagadhi, which occurred just a year later, demonstrated that these occurrences are no longer rare. These consecutive tragedies demonstrate that the frequency and magnitude of today's mountain calamities cannot be predicted by our outdated models. The peaks are getting more unpredictable, and a single crumbling slope can now cause a catastrophe, as evidenced by the Upper Mustang floods and the ISRO satellite data on the Dharali disaster.

People in the Shadow

As our old maps of the mountains fail, the social fabric of the communities living there is also being stretched to its limit. While technical teams from NDRRMA and ICIMOD have been on the ground in Thame to map physical hazards, the SathSathai Summiter’s Summit has revealed a parallel socioeconomic crisis. Through "witness accounts" from veteran climbers like Mingma David Sherpa and Sheikha Asma Al Thani, the dialogue is finally shifting from satellite imagery to the lived experiences of those whose lives depend on the ice.  They describe a landscape that is no longer recognizable, documenting measurable changes in ice formation and route stability that no map can fully capture. These testimonies are echoed by local elderly grandmothers like Chyoying Doma, who describe the "auditory and visual" shifts in the mountains, from the changing sounds of moving glaciers to the loss of traditional seasonal markers once used for agricultural planning.

  As our field surveys from April 2025 demonstrate, this catastrophe is also strongly gendered and very intimate. Due to shifting crop cycles, temperature and precipitation, people now suffer from climate-related health problems. Especially, women in the Thame Valley are now bearing an increased "multiple burden" from agricultural workloads to detrimental reproductive health. Community interviews also show that psychological trauma is on the rise, even beyond the physical work. The ongoing uncertainty of snowfall, economic instability, and the shadow of erratic moraine dams are all contributing factors to residents' elevated stress levels. We can get a complete picture of how climate change in the Himalayas is a fight for the existence and dignity of those on the front lines rather than merely an environmental study by combining the technical and social findings.

The Gap between the Talk and the Truth

The 2025 summit may have stopped in rhetoric, despite the fact that high-level dialogues like the Sagarmatha Sambaad were intended to bridge mountain reality with global policy. Critics point out that the world is far from the promised climate justice because these debates often fail to provide systemic solutions. This leads to a serious environmental injustice, although Nepal contributes only 0.08% of the world's emissions, people suffer the consequences of a disaster that they did not cause. Even though the World Bank's $9.4 million payment in late 2025 was a welcome gesture of justice, it is still tiny in comparison to the rising human cost and the predatory power of unchecked mountain tourism.

This is not just an environmental study, but a cycle of increasing poverty for vulnerable populations, such as the elderly, porters, and subsistence farmers. In valleys like Thame, women are left to shoulder a "multiple burden," managing collapsing agricultural cycles and worsening reproductive health issues under great stress, as men migrate for employment. This calamity is also deeply gendered. Those with the fewest resources and the greatest family duties become more helpless as the glaciers disappear, their traditional means of subsistence and physical well-being vanishing along with the ice.

​​​​​From monitoring to survival

Adaptation is made possible by current scientific monitoring, which uses ground-based data and satellite-based remote sensing to enable "non-structural" interventions like mobile-based early notifications. However, local action must take over as international diplomacy falters. If high-level meetings do not lead to immediate adaptation on the ground, they are worthless. Local Adaptation Plans (LAPA) must be prioritized in order to overcome administrative obstacles, even though ICIMOD's research provide the essential maps to forecast disasters.

This entails concentrating on the finance that instantly reaches communities, empowering the frontline by giving women and indigenous groups priority, and a clever defense that blends engineering, like the Tsho Rolpa spillways along with community-led warnings. In the end, "climate justice" is not a catchphrase, it rather refers to the financial and material resources that enable people who live under the shadow of the glaciers to protect their lives and dignity.

Connecting Data and People

The second year of the International Year of Glacier Preservation provides a crucial temporal framework for documenting the accelerating environmental and social shifts in Nepal's mountain regions. GLOF episodes are no longer isolated incidents. Scientific evidence confirms they are symptoms of a systemic collapse affecting water security and social stability across the Hindu Kush Himalayas. Nepal’s experience proves that research must lead to response, science alone cannot save a village without the equity of direct funding and local empowerment. As environmental changes surpass natural variability, the world must match Nepal’s frontline resilience with a radical commitment to lowering emissions and halting this cryospheric collapse.

It has been raining in Kathmandu for a while. The rainy weather is coupled with storms.

The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology stated that  the Kathmandu Valley is witnessing rain with storms for over an hour. 

Meteorologist Bibhuti Pokharel said the current weather is likely to intensify further. 

With the storms, the electricity and telephone cables may be snapped, poles and trees uprooted, and corrugated zinc roofs of shelters and houses blown away, she reminded, alerting over the adversity that requires adequate attention and precaution.

The weather service has appealed to everyone to stay in safe places and avoid travel during such adversity.

The guardians and related bodies are also urged to take special care of children as the hostile weather starts at a time the schools are over.

Vehicular movement along the Kanti Highway has been obstructed following a landslide at Gangate area in Bhimphedi Rural Municipality-8 of Makawanpur district today.

Spokesperson of the District Police Office and Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP) Pushkar Bogati said the traffic was closed after the landslide occurred at 5 this evening. 

Bogati shared that efforts are on to clear the landslide debris  and a team of police personnel from the Area Police Office in Thingan has been deployed.

The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DoHM) has called for adopting high alertness as there is a possibility of human and material damage due to high winds accompanied by hailstone since the afternoon today particularly in some districts in the Tarai.

The public is urged to avoid going outside unnecessarily and to take necessary precautions to reduce potential damage that may be caused by the storm. 

Disaster management expert Dr Dharmaraj Upreti advised the general public to take necessary precautions, stating that damage from natural disasters is increasing in Nepal due to ignoring the weather alert.

He urged not to drive vehicles during storms and hail, not to sit near trees and electric poles, and to avoid going outside unnecessarily.

According to the Department, there is a possibility of moderate rain and snowfall with thunder, hail, and storms in many places of Karnali and Sudurpaschim Provinces, some hilly and mountainous areas of Koshi province including in Gandaki and Lumbini Provinces, and a few places in the Tarai of Bagmati, Madhesh, and Koshi Provinces towards the afternoon today.

Department spokesperson Bibhuti Pokharel said that in the afternoon strong winds would particularly blow in the Tarai region and this would last for two to three hours, urging special precautions to be taken.

According to spokesperson Pokharel, light rain along with thunder and lightning is taking place in some districts of the Sudurpaschim, Karnali and Lumbini Provinces at present also. 

It is necessary to adopt alertness as this system is moving north-eastwards. 

"There is a possibility of strong winds (around 50–60 km/h) in the Tarai region of Madhesh Province as well as in Koshi and Lumbini Provinces. Due to this, there is a risk of trees falling, weak structures and roofs being blown off, and disruption of electricity and communication services, so it is necessary to take necessary measures and precautions to avoid its impact," she said.

According to spokesperson Pokhrel, there is a possibility of heavy rain/snow in one or two places in the hilly and mountainous areas of Karnali and Sudurpaschim Provinces this afternoon. 

The Department stated that Nepal is currently under the influence of a western low-pressure system and local winds.

Spokesperson Pokharel said the impact of the storm in the Kathmandu Valley would be low. 

She mentioned that although it would have a greater impact in the Tarai region, there is no need to panic, but it is necessary to take precautions.