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Prime Minister KP Oli’s political fortunes were sinking before the Supreme Court came to his rescue by decoupling the CPN-UML from the CPN (Maoist Center), thereby annulling the 2018 merger of the two parties to form the Nepal Communist Party (NCP).

Had his rival faction in the party registered a no-confidence motion and had it been endorsed, Oli would have lost his prime minister’s chair. Also, prior to the court verdict, had the Election Commission decided to give official name and recognition to the NCP rival faction led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal, he would have had to relinquish party chairmanship. The rival faction was expected to be recognized as the official one, as the majority of party central committee members as well as its lawmakers were on their side.

Before the verdict, Oli was said to be short of garnering the backing of at least 40 percent lawmakers as well as 40 percent party central committee members whose support would have been needed to split the NCP and form a new party. In the worst-case scenario, Oli could have lost his position of lawmaker.  

Many expected the prime minister to lose his PM’s position in the restored parliament. But the apex court verdict has vastly diluted that possibility.  

The verdict forced most of Oli’s former UML colleagues to return to their mother party by ditching Dahal, who is now the head of the restored CPN (Maoist Center). Around 40 NCP lawmakers including former prime ministers Madhav Nepal and Jhalnath Khanal, who had sided with Dahal in the conflict against Oli, decided to return. They had no other alternative. Legal provisions in the Political Parties Act allow a party to expel its breakaway MPs, forcing the return of Nepal, Khanal and other MPs back into the fold of Oli-led UML.

“We have decided to honor the court decision despite our serious disagreements over it. It aimed at dividing the unified party and went beyond the writ petitioner’s demand,” says Narayan Kaji Shrestha, a senior leader of the restored CPN (Maoist Center).

Mr Plan B

Oli’s confidants say he always has a plan B. “Many had thought he would lose the battle if the parliament was reinstated. It is now clear who has lost the battle,” says Bishal Bhattarai, chief whip of the reinstated UML.

After the NCP’s unravelling, the Maoists, Oli’s coalition partners, have been mulling withdrawing their support to the government, in which case the federal government will lose its ruling majority.

“Our party is discussing withdrawal. A final decision will be made after consultations with Nepali Congress and Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal,” says Maoist leader Girirajmani Pokharel.

But an abrupt Maoist withdrawal seems unlikely because if they withdraw their support for the federal government, the UML could maneuver to remove the two Maoist chief ministers of Karnali and Far-western provinces. 

UML chief whip Bhattarai says it doesn’t matter whether the Maoists stay or go. Either way, Oli will retain the premiership.

Oli-led UML has 120 seats in the House of Representatives (HoR) and needs only 18 more MPs to form a majority government. The prime minister has already put together a negotiation team to talk with the JSPN in order to lure them into the government. With the Madhesi party’s help, Oli can cobble together a majority even without the Congress and the Maoists.

That said, JSPN federal council chairperson Baburam Bhattarai as well as its chairperson Upendra Yadav are against joining Oli’s cabinet. On the other hand, Mahantha Thakur and Rajendra Mahato are interested, if the prime minister agrees to release jailed lawmaker Resham Chaudhary by withdrawing charges against him. “We are still in discussions. I cannot say what will happen right now,” says Laxman Lal Karna, a member of the JSPN’s negotiation team.

Sources say the JSPN could split over the issue. “At least 18-20 of the 34 MPs [including two suspended ones] from the party may break away to join the government,” says a UML leader who is involved in negotiations.

Maoist chairperson Dahal has also expedited negotiations to form a government of his own. He can remove Oli with the backing of Congress plus JSPN. (The Maoists have 53 lawmakers, Nepali Congress has 63 and JSPN has 34.)

The Congress is yet to commit to Dahal even though the two parties see eye to eye on the need to remove Oli. To reassure them, Congress leaders have asked Dahal to register a no-confidence motion against Oli.

Anticipated outcome

Oli appeared confident of holding on to his twin posts even after the parliament reinstatement. He had been saying that the celebrations of Dahal and Nepal was premature and they would ultimately be empty-handed. Defying expectations, he didn’t bring an ordinance to split the NCP in a bid to retain his MP’s position, which he could have lost if the official NCP recognition went to the Dahal-Nepal faction.

Sources close to Oli say he had anticipated the court verdict on NCP’s dissolution. “Even if the court didn’t do the job, the Election Commission would have completed the formalities a few weeks later,” says the aforementioned UML leader who chose to remain anonymous.

UML leaders claim the majority of local government heads are Oli loyalists. “Our team has the support of the majority of the 753 leaders of local governments, even when we don’t count those loyal to Nepal and Dahal,” says Bhattarai, the UML chief whip.  

Of the erstwhile NCP’s 388 local unit chiefs, 190 are loyal to Oli while 20 others aren’t with any faction, say party leaders.

Local representatives help their mother party build grassroots support and garner votes in parliamentary elections. This is why Oli is confident of a good UML showing in the next round of elections.

But Oli doesn’t have the support of the party’s second-rung leaders: the likes of Madhav Nepal, Jhalnath Khanal, Bamdev Gautam, Bhim Rawal, Asta Laxmi Shakya and Surendra Pandey who have been opposing his handling of the party and the government.

“The dissident faction will try to thwart him every step of the way,” says the UML leader close to Oli. “But what you have to remember is that he won back his old party name and election symbol, which is a huge victory in itself.” Both the NCP factions had eyed the enduringly popular UML electoral symbol of a blazing sun.

UML leaders including Ishwar Pokharel, Yubaraj Gyawali, Gokul Baskota, Mahesh Basnet and Ghanashyam Khatiwada had celebrated on their social media posts the court verdict that came in favor of Team Oli. Basnet and Khatiwada had said they were proud to be recognized as UML legislators within an hour of the decision.

Oli also has a stronghold on state mechanisms including constitutional bodies. Right now, his biggest challenge will be to manage the old leaders who have returned to the UML fold.

Nepal, then the only Hindu kingdom in the world, was declared a secular state under the new constitution. The decision came at a time Madhesh was unconvinced of the constitution’s inclusiveness and thus a violent struggle ensued, resulting in India imposing a months-long embargo. 

Amid the chaos, the dissenting voices of pro-Hindu state leaders, particularly those from the pro-monarchy Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), were drowned. 

In the following years, Hindu nationalist parties and organizations have more forcefully opposed Nepal’s status as a secular state, arguing Nepal has been a Hindu nation for centuries and Hinduism is not just a religion but a way of life. 

The pro-Hindu fringe also wants the monarchy restored.

In January, the Far-West Province saw a massive rally for Hindu state. In the days that followed, there were similar protests in other parts of the country, again with significant public participation. All these protests suggest the forces backing the pro-Hindu agenda have grown in strength. 

According to the National Population and Housing Census 2011 (National Report), 81.3 percent of Nepal’s population are Hindus. The Hindus also consist of a huge number of ‘upper-caste’ people with the monetary, social and political strength to influence voters and decision-makers. 

Over to Oli

When Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli visited the Pashupatinath Temple in Kathmandu in January, he became the first incumbent communist PM to do so. The prime minister also declared that the government would donate to the temple 101 kg of gold. The gold-plating on the roof and jalhari would be a break in tradition, Oli told the media. In the following weeks, Oli also announced that he would be building a Ram Janaki temple at Ram’s alleged new birthplace in Thori, Chitwan, with his personal resources. 

Sociologist and educator Neeti Aryal Khanal says she has been observing the strange mix of communism and religion with some curiosity. In her opinion, NCP leader and PM Oli is trying to use religious sentiments to secure his vote-bank.

“This is not something new,” Khanal says. “Globally, religion has played an important role in politics. Politicians have understood how to use religious sentiments as political weapons to mass mobilize, influence vote banks and drive their agendas.”

In Nepal’s context though, there is a contradiction between what the communist politicians practice and the ideals they supposedly believe in. “In Marxist theory, religion is compared to opium,” Aryal explains. “Marx’s followers question religion and religious authority. Here, we see the opposite.”

Aryal sees another extremism brewing in Nepal. PM Oli is using Pashupatinath and the controversy surrounding Ram’s birthplace to cement his political hold. Just like his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi, who used the Hindutwa card to come to power, she adds, Oli is banking on Hindus to re-elect him.

“In the long term, this will fuel religious fundamentalism and extremism,” Aryal says. “As it is, the threat of the use of violence for religious purpose has grown in Nepal.” Aryal gives the recent example of a women’s march where poet Sapana Sanjeevani had recited poems against religious patriarchy. “In return, she got rape and death threats from religious fanatics,” Aryal informs. “If these people feel they will be politically protected, the situation could get worse.”

Online hatred

A Facebook group called Isaaikaran Biruddha Janachetana (‘Awareness against Christianity’)—which self-translates as ‘People awareness against converted jhola’—has been spreading hatred against Christians in the name of raising awareness for Hinduism. The group consisting mostly of youths was public on Facebook and had a following of over 100,000 people before it went private recently—and it still has over 38,000 members. (This scribe was blocked from the group for trying to contact some admins and moderators.)

Some of the writings in the page are coarse, derogatory and filled with toxicity. The group members, which strangely also include young Christians, exchange verbal spats on a daily basis, sometimes even culminating in physical threats. The language used is so strong that we would not want to translate it for our readers.

An example of the group’s content is its admin Durgesh Ghale’s garbled post. “Teaching Jesus’ Nepali sheep is the responsibility of today’s informed youth. Jesus is a bastard child whose father is not known,” Ghale writes.

Out of the dozen or so group admins, we managed to get a reply from one Tej Prasad Adhikari from Butwal, who is currently working abroad. In a conversation over Facebook Messenger, Adhikari asserts the group’s importance in raising awareness against rampant religious conversions.

“Religion and culture are the identity of any country. Attacking that is a crime. Without our culture and religion, we will lose our existence,” writes Adhikari, as he accuses Christian missionaries of making religion a business and converting gullible Nepalis. The group, which has been active for five years, has members from all walks of life, from students to aspiring politicians.

Asked about the consequences of online rifts and if they could lead to a religious conflict, Adhikari acknowledges the possibility but again blames Christianity followers who, he speculates, could lead physical attacks against Hindus when their reasoning fails. “We don’t need weapons to fight this war,” Adhikari says. “If we make all Nepalis aware and expose these head-counting missionaries, we will win.”

Social media, especially Facebook, has turned into a battleground between Nepali youths of different religions. A quick Facebook search will take readers to dozens of these groups, moderated by young users, who use the safety of anonymity and distance to spew hatred and incite violence.

Dangerous tunes

Ram Krishna Upadhyaya, president of Hindu Jagaran Nepal, says Nepal is inherently a Hindu country and the only country in the world that deserves the title. The government has to listen to the majority if it wants to maintain peace and harmony. If Nepal becomes a Hindu state, it would be a matter of pride not only for Nepali Hindus but also for Hindus around the world. The youth of Nepal, Upadhyaya adds, are ready to struggle for it.

Upadhyaya goes on to say that if the ‘forced’ conversion of Hindus goes unchecked, Hindu groups might have to take matters into their own hands to protect the ancient religion. “We see lots of new converts influenced by money from external forces who are trying to discredit our religion. If this continues, there might be a war,” Upadhyaya warns, adding that there have been some physical retribution against other religions in parts of the country. “This is an international tactic, including by the US, to create a war zone in the country to serve their purposes. We don’t need other religions here.”

Singer turned politician Sanjaya Shrestha has an even more radical line. “The Christians here are supported by dollars,” Shrestha claims. “A lot of money was spent by external forces to undo the Hindu kingdom.” A local level candidate for the RPP in 2013, Shrestha, still considered a youth leader, is most critical of the communist government, especially the Maoists.

Shrestha still writes ‘Hindu kingdom’ in all his social media posts and believes that a paper signed by ‘601 corrupt politicians’ cannot change the country’s Hindu status. Christian churches, which he compares to public toilets, can be removed any time as Nepal is and will always be a Hindu country. “These one-roomed, public toilet-like churches may fool gullible people or coerce some to convert. But we can all change this overnight if we want,” Shrestha says. “These money-minded Christians seem to want war in our country. But with our majority, it won’t even be a war.”

Tolerant too

“I am a devout Hindu and being true to my faith, I am tolerant of all other religions as well,” says Pandit Prajwal Luitel. The 30-year-old is a Hindu priest by profession and graduate of Nepal Sanskrit University, hence the title. Luitel, a popular member of the famous Men’s Room Reloaded (MRR) group on Facebook, began studying to become a pandit from the school level itself.

“Our generation does not have many Sanskrit scholars. It’s probably because during the insurgency the Maoists prohibited most schools from teaching Sanskrit,” Luitel says. Studying Sanskrit and practicing Hindu rites is Luitel’s way of protecting the religion and preserving its traditions. A Hindu needs a priest from the time of birth till after death. And as the young generation was not much into it, Luitel decided to take the task upon himself.

Luitel does not support the politics behind declaring Nepal a secular state, but neither does he oppose it. As for reclaiming the country’s Hindu status, Luitel is least bothered as long as he is free to practice his religion. “I am a pandit who respects all religions equally,” Luitel says. “I’d never join protests asking for a Hindu nation. Everyone should be free to practice the religion of their choice.”

What’s on offer?

One thing Dev Kumar Sunuwar, a journalist and indigenous rights activist, has noticed is that religion can be an effective mobilization tool for the youths. Even those who were previously not bothered by politics or did not understand it are now animated by religious agendas.

Since PM Oli has recently been inviting speculations of Nepal moving towards a Hindu nation again, the idea has created a wave among the youth, Sunuwar believes. “I still don’t think there could be a mass movement for this,” Sunuwar says. “But there will always be one or the other group keeping this agenda alive for political purposes.”

As for the conversion of indigenous peoples into Christianity, Sunuwar says the numbers might be bigger than what has been reported in the media. Again, indigenous people of Nepal is not a homogenous group, so the conversion rates also depend on the caste system. “I know that in our Sunuwar community, almost 50 percent have converted to Christianity,” Sunuwar says. “The numbers are also huge among the Tamang community and Dalit groups.”

Sunuwar says Christian churches and organizations offer various packages to the newly converted. “The indigenous minorities were already discriminated and on the top of that, people started getting health insurance, scholarships, financial aid and other packages,” Sunuwar says. “Also, the government cut off many public holidays of the indigenous people and it also became clear to them that opting for Christianity would save them from observing expensive Hindu rituals.”

The problem with these conversions, Sunuwar fears, is that the indigenous people will lose their true identity. “Take our Sunuwar community. Our organization has declared that we are Kiratis. In the past, most of us used to be listed as Hindus,” Sunuwar explains. “Now that almost half of us are Christians, we have a hard time giving a single identity to the already small community of nature worshippers.”

Not on the cards

Political analyst Shyam Shrestha believes PM Oli started playing the religious card after all his other ploys failed. The Oli administration has failed to live up to its promises and when Oli dissolved the parliament and announced fresh elections, he used the religion card.

“But this is a risky bet,” says Shrestha, “We are not religious extremists, and this point was proven when the pro-Hindu RPP did not even get 1 percent of the total votes in the last elections.” Shrestha sees this as a desperate attempt by Oli, knowing that he might otherwise not return to power.

But what if Oli goes, as now seems likely? Shrestha is confident that none of his possible replacements as prime minister—Madhav Kumar Nepal, Pushpa Kamal Dahal or Sher Bahadur Deuba—will play the religious card.

“Nepal and Dahal have always been supportive of a secular state. The Nepali Congress also supported it. So I don’t think any of these leaders will follow on Oli’s footsteps,” says Shrestha. He thus also rules out any prospect of a plebiscite on the issue.

China had backed the merger of Nepal’s two biggest communist forces for a couple of reasons. China felt ideologically close to the two communist parties. The northern neighbor also hoped they could together form a strong, trustworthy government in Kathmandu.

Says Rupak Sapkota, deputy executive director at the Institute of Foreign Affairs (IFA) under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “China has for long backed stable and reliable forces in Nepal. It believes instability in Nepal would increase anti-China activities”. As most of China’s development projects in Nepal are under government-to-government modality, he adds, “China fears political instability could jeopardize them”.

But China is not alone in wishing for political stability in Nepal, says Amish Raj Mulmi, author of the new book 'All Roads Lead North: Nepal's Turn To China’. “Other development partners also wish the same to secure their investments.”

Chinese wishes aside, only two years into the merger of the two communist parties, a rift started developing between the two chairpersons of the united Nepal Communist Party (NCP). Chinese envoy to Nepal, Hou Yanqi, engaged in a series of meetings with ruling party leaders when the NCP disputes escalated. But the communist unity still unraveled after Prime Minister KP Oli unilaterally dissolved the federal lower house. 

Predictably, the House dissolution also soured PM Oli’s relation with China. This was someone who was consistently projected as pro-China, at home and abroad. 

To keep the NCP united, China at the end of December sent to Kathmandu a special mission under CPC vice-minister Guo Yezhou. But it was too late.

The decisive North turn

Nepal-India relations had soured when India tried to openly meddle in Nepal's internal politics in 2015 as the country was about to promulgate a new constitution. When India imposed a blockade on Nepal, the small landlocked country was left with no option but to reach out to China, the only other neighbor. For his brave blockade-time stand against India and for the historic agreements he signed with China, the communist coalition Oli led was rewarded handsomely in the 2017 general elections.  

Before that, Nepal had signed a bilateral cooperation agreement to join China’s Belt and Road Initiatives, China’s globe-spanning connectivity project. At the time, Pushpa Kamal Dahal was the prime minister after Oli had resigned ahead of the tabling of a joint Maoist-Nepali Congress no-confidence motion in the parliament.

When Oli was reelected prime minister later in 2017, he invited Chinese President Xi Jinping for an official visit. In 2019 Xi obliged, becoming the first Chinese president to visit Nepal in two decades, after Jiang Zemin’s historic 1996 trip. Nepal and China signed 18 memorandums of understanding during Xi’s visit, including some of strategic importance. 

During the trip, Xi committed to elevating Sino-Nepal relations to new heights. He also pledged help in Nepal’s quest to become a ‘land-linked country’ through multidimensional connectivity.

Unmet expectations

Oli had expected China to build Nepal-China railway on grant basis while China expected him to push for the implementation of BRI projects in Nepal. Both expectations proved misplaced.

“Under direct or indirect geopolitical pressure, Nepal’s political leadership couldn’t could push ahead with the BRI plans. The bureaucracy was also dissuaded when they heard rumors of debt trap in Sri Lanka,” says Sapkota of the IFA. “The regional equilibrium at the time was also disturbed due to the Doklam standoff between India and China”.

According to Sapkota, joining the BRI was an imperative if Nepal was to achieve its Vision 2030 goals as well as to fulfill the country’s development needs. “Most western donors have been extending assistance on human rights, women empowerment and similar issues. Nepal thus has to rely on neighbors for development projects, which are a must for the country,” he says.

Even as Nepal dilly-dallied on the BRI projects, the debate over a $500 million US grant engulfed the country’s politics, with the NCP sharply divided over whether to accept the grant without revising the underlying MCC agreement.

Then the Chinese weighed in. PM Oli was greatly miffed when the Chinese side told Oli he should be ready to resign as prime minister to maintain party unity, say NCP sources.  

In a reflection of the new state of play between the two countries, China offered Nepal 800,000 doses of Covid-19 vaccines only after India had itself supplied to Nepal a million doses. “Yes, China providing fewer vaccines than India was meaningful,” says a party source.

According to foreign affairs analysts, frustrations over delays in meeting expectations has resulted in a trust-deficit between Oli and Chinese side. But the Chinese have learned not to put all their eggs in a single basket, some say, and hence a change of guard in Kathmandu may not necessarily distress it.

The northern neighbor has always maintained good relations with all major political actors in Nepal. “China maintained very good relationship with BP Koirala even at the time of monarchy,” says Bhaskar Koirala, Director at the Nepal Institute of International and Strategic Relations. “China wants to maintain good relations with the NCP given its political strength. But aware of Nepal’s unstable political dynamics, it maintains relations with each and every political party in Nepal.”

Koirala recalls the meeting between Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe and Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba during Wei’s Nepal visit last November.

This had happened at a time China was unhappy with Congress after a party leader, Jeevan Bahadur Shahi, accused China of encroaching on Nepali territories in Humla district. Before that, in 2016, the then Prime Minister Deuba was drawn into controversy for sharing stage with the prime minister of Dalai Lama’s government in exile in 2016.

Still, China has tried to maintain good relations with the party. Chinese ambassador to Nepal Hou Yanqi even met Deuba after the parliament’s restoration last week.

“Chinese engagement in Nepal has increased unprecedentedly in the dozen years since the abolishment of monarchy. It has had to deal with different governments and leaders during the time. I believe the global power is slowly understanding Nepal,” Koirala says.

The great decoupling?

Irrespective of the less-than-perfect relations with Nepali government leadership, the Chinese ambassador was involved in initiation of two projects in Nepal this week. Prime Minister Oli laid the foundation stone for an industrial park in Jhapa, which is to be built with Chinese grant. He also laid the foundation of the Sunkoshi-Marine diversion project to be built by a Chinese company, again in Hou’s presence.

Separately, China Communication Construction Company with the Chinese government as its majority stakeholder is also interested in building Nijgadh International Airport, a strategically important international airport for Nepal.

Writer and analyst Mulmi believes China has given indications of decoupling investments and politics when it comes to Nepal. “I have also found some signs of that. But it would be too early to judge whether it has a political message or not”, he says.

Koirala says China will keep pushing its development initiatives irrespective of who is in power in Kathmandu. “This is not just the case of Nepal, it’s the same in other South Asian countries as well”.

He does not think China opposes the MCC in Nepal as it wants to invest in hydropower and without a cross-border transmission line power cannot be exported from Nepal. “In my opinion, the MCC serves the interests of all three major powers in India, China and the US,” adds Koirala. “The transmission line to be built by the US will help China to export electricity generated from its investment and India would get power supply from Nepal. The MCC uproar thus has more to do with Nepali domestic politics than it has to do with China”. 

The Supreme Court’s much-awaited Feb 23 verdict not only reinstated the dissolved federal parliament but also paved way for the filing of a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli. That motion was registered at the parliament secretariat on December 20, just hours after the House dissolution.

But those planning Oli’s ouster are undecided over his successor as well as potential ruling coalition partners.

Many Tweeples have launched polls over likely new prime minister on the micro-blogging site following the Supreme Court verdict. Such polls feature common options: Oli, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Sher Bahadur Deuba, Madhav Nepal and Baburam Bhattarai.

Two-time former Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal was proposed as the new prime minister in the no-confidence motion registered by the dissident faction of the ruling Nepal Communist Party. But Dahal has since said time and again he will not become prime minister and that he is open about choosing another candidate for the top job.  

“We [the NCP’s Dahal-Nepal faction] have been projected as power hungry and fighting only for the prime minister’s chair,” Dahal said while addressing a rally in Kathmandu earlier this month. “We [Dahal and Nepal] are not fighting for the chair and we won’t be the prime minister even if the parliament is reinstated.”

Following the court verdict Dahal reiterated his openness to discussing a new PM pick.

Sources in the NCP’s Dahal-Nepal faction say the faction is thinking of revising the no-confidence motion lodged with the parliament secretariat in order to change the name of the proposed prime minister, even as an alternative candidate is yet to be decided.   

Who’s in the race?

Neither of the NCP splinter factions can claim government leadership without the support of the main opposition, Nepali Congress, which will now have the decisive role in government formation. But the jury is still out on whether NC will support an NCP faction or itself claim government leadership.

Observers say Congress Party President Sher Bahadur Deuba is certain to stake his claim by taking advantage of the rivalry between the two feuding NCP factions. In order to remove PM Oli, the Dahal-Nepal faction could offer premiership to Congress, but then Oli could do the same in order to checkmate the Dahal-Nepal faction.

Congress leaders say Deuba will be an unopposed prime minister candidate if the party decides to lead the government with the support of one or the other NCP faction. Congress parliamentary party has already elected Deuba as its leader and changing his stronghold in the parliamentary party won’t be easy. 

Yet many party leaders seem to be against the idea of NC joining the government. Senior leader Shekhar Koirala has said that Congress shouldn’t lead or join any government with under two years to go for the constitutionally-mandated general elections. Koirala, who is eying the party's leadership in the upcoming general convention, slated for August-end, also said NC should prepare for polls from the opposition, as befits its electoral mandate.  

Congress senior leader Ram Chandra Paudel and Krishna Prasad Sitaula, another influential leader, have both warned Deuba not to get greedy, and refrain especially from allying with Oli.

Although many NC leaders say they would support the Dahal-Nepal faction by staying out of the government, Deuba may find it hard to resist if Oli offers him the prime ministerial berth; Deuba has in recent times been close to Oli. The incumbent prime minister has already indicated he would favor Congress to lead the government. Addressing a public function in Kathmandu a day after the House reinstatement verdict, Oli said the Dahal-Nepal faction ‘wouldn’t get anything’ in the changed context. Some analysts interpreted Oli’s statement to mean that he had already hammered a deal with Deuba.  

“Most senior Congress leaders are against the idea of joining any government. Yet the party president may ultimately prevail,” says political analyst Krishna Khanal. “This despite the fact that the Supreme Court verdict was also a moral defeat for Deuba who wanted to go to elections as per Oli’s plan.”

Many twists and turns

There are three alternatives to elect a new government. First, the prime minister may ask for a chance to prove his majority in the House. But according to Oli’s confidants, he is unlikely to pursue this course.

Second, the House could press ahead with the old no-confidence motion against Oli. If the motion is endorsed, the alternative candidate proposed mentioned in the motion will be elected the new head of government.

But the constitution is unclear about what happens if the prime minister resigns prior to the House voting.

Says Ram Narayan Bidari, a legal expert and lawmaker of the NCP Dahal-Nepal faction, “If the prime minister resigns, the post will be vacant and appointment of a new prime minister will commence as per section 1 of Article 76 of the constitution.”

According to this Article, the country’s President can appoint as prime minister the parliamentary party leader of the party with a majority in the House. Following the de facto NCP split, the current NCP parliamentary party leader, KP Oli, will fall short of the 138 votes that will give him the majority in the 275-member lower house.

In such a case President Bidya Bhandari, who has openly sided with Oli in the past, will be reluctant to recognize the NCP, which is yet to undergo a de jure split, as a single party.

Oli as parliamentary party leader can suspend NCP lawmakers involved in registering the no-confidence motion against him. But that will mean little as the final authority to approve the suspensions is with the House speaker. Disputes between Oli and Speaker Agni Sapkota, who represents the Dahal-Nepal faction, could escalate if Oli insists on taking action against dissenting NCP lawmakers.

“In the worst case, the House could be obstructed by the lawmakers representing the prime minister,” says an Oli-faction leader.

On the other hand, the Dahal-Nepal faction plans on changing the NCP parliamentary party leader. In fact, it has already settled on Dahal for the post.

“The court verdict has stopped a grievous violation of the constitution yet it has not ended the political deadlock,” says analyst Khanal. “We are now in a pre-December 20 situation, with the dispute between the two NCP factions still deadlocked.”

According to Khanal, ideally, Prime Minister Oli should resign on moral grounds, which could also ease the process of electing a new prime minister.

“If Oli is reluctant to go, the Dahal-Nepal faction can remove him as parliamentary party leader with the support of majority lawmakers in the party, if they have such support,” Khanal told ApEx.

Congress, the kingmaker

Now all eyes are on Congress with its 63 seats in the federal lower house. Dissident faction leaders Dahal and Nepal have already visited NC President Deuba’s residence soliciting support for the formation of a new government.

But according to analyst Khanal, technically, the Dahal-Nepal faction would be the natural first choice to lead the government given its position in the parliament. “Going by their claims and media reports, they have a majority in parliamentary party to elect a new parliamentary party leader. As of now, they will also be the largest party if the NCP splits. This means the President can appoint its leader as new prime minister,” Khanal says.

But he says the chances of PM Oli formally splitting the party through an ordinance are higher. According to current laws, a political party can be split only with the support of 40 percent of its lawmakers as well as 40 percent of its central committee members.

Thus the question of who becomes the next prime minister will be clear only when the NCP row settles one way or the other.