NATO: 7,000 to 15,000 Russian troops dead in Ukraine
NATO estimated on Wednesday that 7,000 to 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in four weeks of war in Ukraine, where fierce resistance from the country’s defenders has denied Moscow the lightning victory it sought, Associated Press reported.
By way of comparison, Russia lost about 15,000 troops over 10 years in Afghanistan.
A senior NATO military official said the alliance’s estimate was based on information from Ukrainian authorities, what Russia has released — intentionally or not — and intelligence gathered from open sources. The official spoke on condition of anonymity under ground rules set by NATO.
Ukraine has released little information about its own military losses, and the West has not given an estimate, but President Volodymr Zelenskyy said nearly two weeks ago that about 1,300 Ukrainian servicemen had been killed.
When Russia unleashed its invasion Feb. 24 in Europe’s biggest offensive since World War II, a swift toppling of Ukraine’s government seemed likely. But with Wednesday marking four full weeks of fighting, Moscow is bogged down in a grinding military campaign, according to the Associated Press.
Zelenskyy — who has riveted the world’s attention with ad hoc videos and speeches to legislatures seeking military aid for his country — seized on the anniversary to plead for people around the world to gather in public Thursday to show support for Ukraine, saying the war breaks the heart of “every free person on the planet.”
“Come to your squares, your streets. Make yourselves visible and heard,” Zelenskyy said in English during an emotional video address to the nation, recorded in the dark near the presidential offices in Kyiv. “Say that people matter. Freedom matters. Peace matters. Ukraine matters.”
Speaking in Russian, Zelenskyy appealed to Russians “to leave Russia so as not to give your tax money to the war.” Tens of thousands of Russians already have fled their country since the war began, fearing an intensifying crackdown on dissent that has included the arrest of thousands of antiwar protesters and suppression of the media.
Zelenskyy, who will speak to NATO members by video on Thursday, also said he is asking the alliance to provide “effective and unrestricted” support to Ukraine, including any weapons the country needs to fend off the Russian invasion.
With its ground forces slowed or stopped by hit-and-run Ukrainian units armed with Western-supplied weapons, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s troops are bombarding targets from afar, falling back on the tactics they used in reducing cities to rubble in Syria and Chechnya, Associated Press reported.
A senior US defense official said Wednesday that Russian ground forces appear to be digging in and setting up defensive positions 15 to 20 kilometers (9 to 12 miles) outside Kyiv, the capital, as they make little to no progress toward the city center.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss military assessments, said it appears the forces are no longer trying to advance into the city, and in some areas east of Kyiv, Ukrainian troops have pushed Russian soldiers farther away.
Instead, Russian troops appear to be prioritizing the fight in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions in the Donbas, in what could be an effort to cut off Ukrainian troops and prevent them from moving west to defend other cities, the official said. The US also has seen activity from Russian ships in the Sea of Azov, including what appear to be efforts to send landing ships ashore with supplies, including vehicles, the official said.
In an ominous sign that Moscow might consider using nuclear weapons, a senior Russian official said the country’s nuclear arsenal would help deter the West from intervening in Ukraine.
“The Russian Federation is capable of physically destroying any aggressor or any aggressor group within minutes at any distance,” Dmitry Rogozin, the head of the state aerospace corporation, Roscosmos, said in televised remarks. He noted that Moscow’s nuclear stockpiles include tactical nuclear weapons, designed for use on battlefields, along with far more powerful nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles. Roscosmos oversees missile-building facilities.
US officials long have warned that Russia’s military doctrine envisages an “escalate to deescalate” option of using battlefield nuclear weapons to force the enemy to back down in a situation when Russian forces face imminent defeat. Moscow has denied having such plans.
Rogozin is known for his bluster, and he did not make clear what actions by the West would be seen as meddling, but his comments almost certainly reflect thinking inside the Kremlin. Putin has warned the West that an attempt to introduce a no-fly zone over Ukraine would draw it into a conflict with Russia. Western nations have said they would not create a no-fly zone to protect Ukraine, according to the Associated Press.
As US President Joe Biden left for Europe to meet with key allies about new sanctions against Moscow and more military aid to Ukraine, he warned there is a “real threat” Russia could use chemical weapons.
On the eve of a meeting with Biden, European Union nations signed off on another 500 million euros ($550 million) in military aid for Ukraine.
Zelenskyy appealed to Western countries to stay united in the face of Russia’s efforts to “lobby its interests” with “some partners” to bring them over to its side, and noted during his national address that Ukraine has not received the fighter jets or modern air-defense systems it requested. He said Ukraine also needs tanks and anti-ship systems.
What kind of financial help are we getting from China?
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi arrives in Kathmandu on March 25 on a three-day visit, with project-selection under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) among his top agendas.
But with the Nepali side unprepared, the visit, however, is unlikely to be fruitful on the BRI front. Discussions are underway to forge an understanding for its implementation. But even such an understanding does not guarantee selection and implementation of specific projects.
A senior foreign ministry official requesting anonymity told ApEx that the ball is in Nepal’s court.
“First, we have to identify the projects. Then we have to conduct feasibility studies and prepare detailed project reports (DPRs) before proposing them to China. If the Chinese side agrees to our proposals, negotiations on investment modality can begin,” says the official who is also involved in bilateral negotiations.
On each of the nine projects Nepal has shortlisted under the BRI, it has to negotiate loans with Chinese banks—not the Chinese government. (But the Chinese government can instruct those banks to offer loans on lower interests or even, in rare cases, interest-free.)
“There is a misconception here, even among our top politicians, that once we make a list of projects, the Chinese will do the rest. That is not so,” says the official.
According to him, the BRI is a broad program, but in Nepal, it is often—and wrongly—thought of as synonymous with specific development projects.
In the past five years since the signing of the BRI framework, negotiations between the two sides have focused on preparing legal documents. The only other achievement in this period was the inclusion of Nepal-China Trans-Himalayan Multi-Dimensional Connectivity Network, including a cross-border railway, in the joint communique of the second BRI conference in 2019.
“So far, we have focused on the blueprint and legal documents. We are yet to enter real negotiations on specific projects,” says the official.
The BRI is basically about taking loans from Chinese banks to build infrastructure. But Nepali leaders who are in conversation with Chinese leaders have been emphasizing grants for the BRI projects. For instance, in 2018, the KP Sharma Oli-led government negotiated with the Chinese on the Keyrung-Kathmandu railway. The Oli government reportedly told the Chinese side to provide a grant for the railway project.
“China is not ready to build such a big project on grant-basis as it entails a big financial commitment,” says the government official.
Prakash Saran Mahat, former foreign minister who signed the BRI framework, says Nepal plans to mainly improve road connectivity with the Chinese money.
“We cannot afford projects under commercial loans. We should thus emphasize grants and soft loans,” he says.
There was no discussion on investment modality when the framework agreement was signed. However, global trends suggest grants under the BRI projects are hard to come by.
“You have to keep in mind that the BRI projects in Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia were built with loans from the Exim Bank of China, the China Development Bank, and other Chinese banks,” says the government official.
According to a report prepared by AidData, an international research and innovation lab, China Eximbank and China Development Bank led a major expansion in overseas lending in the pre-BRI era.
“However, the country’s state-owned commercial banks—including Bank of China, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and China Construction Bank—have played an increasingly important role during the BRI era. Their overseas lending activities increased five-fold during the first five years of BRI implementation,” says the report.
The specifics of such deals are hard to find in the public domain. But government officials say loans under the BRI should not be frowned upon as we need all the money we can get to build big infrastructures and spur economic growth. In any case, they say, Nepal is already taking loans from other international financial institutions.
“In the past, many multinational financial institutions snubbed our request for infrastructure loans. So we can use Chinese loans to build desired projects if we get the right rate,” says the official.
For instance, Nepal has built Pokhara International Airport with a Chinese loan at two percent interest.
Officials say multinational financial institutions like the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank work in ways that are distinct from how the Chinese operate. These institutions themselves conduct feasibility studies and prepare DPR for a proposed project, and they offer loans only if they find the project feasible. On BRI projects, however, all these tasks are undertaken by the loan-recipient countries.
Over the past decade, China’s policy on loans has undergone a sea-change. Initially, they provided loans without considering the pay-back capacities of recipient countries. As a result, many countries could not pay back, resulting in what has often been portrayed in Western media as ‘debt-trap’.
Government officials say China has learned its lesson and is now more cautious while providing loans under the BRI projects.
“Unlike in the past, the Chinese are not pressing poor countries like Nepal to take loans for development projects. They are also asking us to consider our pay-back capacity and come up with feasible projects,” says the government official.
Chinese loans constitute only three percent of Nepal’s total foreign loan portfolio. The Ministry of Finance seems reluctant to take out a loan under the BRI, owing to its high interest rates. This is one reason for the BRI’s slow progress in Nepal.
To move ahead, it is vital that political leadership offer policy-guidance to the bureaucracy.
China is already providing large grants to Nepal. Officials say it is obvious to expect more grants from China, but it is better to ask for bilateral grants instead of grants under the BRI.
Suresh Chalise, a former Nepali ambassador to the US, says it is illogical to ask for a BRI grant just because we have gotten a grant under the Millennium Challenge Corporation compact. “China is already giving us other grants,” he says.
But Kalyan Raj Sharma, a China expert, does not rule out the possibility of BRI grants. “There are many ways the two countries can cooperate financially under the BRI,” he says.
China offers three categories of assistance to other countries—grants, interest-free loans, and concessional loans. It has also canceled debts of some hard-pressed countries.
According to a 2019 World Bank report, most Chinese loans are concessional, but with terms that may not be favorable for low income developing countries (LIDCs). Most Chinese loans to LIDCs have fixed interest rates, with a median rate of two percent, a grace period of six years, and a maturity of 20 years, according to the report.
Da Hsuan Feng of the Center for Asian Studies at the University of Texas at Dallas, says China wants prosperity for its neighbors, even the poor ones, through the BRI vehicle.
He says the 10 ASEAN nations, especially poorer ones like Cambodia and Laos, are showing signs of economic vitality thanks to the BRI.
“Under the BRI, China and Laos collaborated in constructing 1,000km high-speed rail from China’s Kunming to Laos’ Vientiane,” he says. “Clearly, by itself, Laos could not and would not have the financial and technological means to build this vital rail-line.”
The new railway could transform the future of this landlocked country, he says.
He says leveraging the BRI to collaborate with Nepal must be a high priority for China, just like collaborating with Laos is a high priority. “A prosperous Nepal will be a tremendous plus for China in the same way that a prosperous Laos is a plus for it,” he says.
Norwegian Ambassador to Nepal Dramdal calls on Energy Minister Bhusal
Norwegian Ambassador to Nepal Torun Dramdal today paid a courtesy call on Minister for Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation Pampha Bhusal at the latter's office in Singha Durbar on Wednesday.
The meeting between the two focused on bilateral welfare and concerns of both Nepal and Norway.
Stating that Norway was a reliable development partner for Nepal, the minister remembered Norway's positive assistance for the drafting of the Constitution and peace process in Nepal.
Praising Norway for its assistance in the areas of energy, society, education and climate change, she said that Nepal was always interested to cooperate with the country in the realms of mutual concerns and development between the two countries.
Saying that Nepal has been incurring a huge loss every year due to off-season rains caused by climate change, Minister Bhusal said that Nepal wants to join hands with the Norwegian Government in reducing such risks.
It could be an exemplary work when there was a cooperation between Nepal and Norway in reducing risks in districts like Manang, Ilam and Sindhupalchowk where off-season rains took its toll, she added.
In response, the Norwegian Ambassador said that the Norwegian Government was interested in expanding its investments in the energy sector of Nepal and would cooperate with it in the development of its renewable energy and hydropower. RSS
Afghanistan world’s unhappiest country, even before Taliban
Afghanistan is the unhappiest country in the world – even before the Taliban swept to power last August. That is according to a so-called World Happiness Report released before the United Nations-designated International Day of Happiness on Sunday, Aljazeera reported.
The annual report ranked Afghanistan as last among 149 countries surveyed, with a happiness rate of just 2.5. Lebanon was the world’s second saddest country, with Botswana, Rwanda and Zimbabwe rounding out the bottom five.
Finland ranked first for the fourth year running with a 7.8 score, followed by Denmark and Switzerland, with Iceland and the Netherlands also in the top five.
Researchers ranked the countries after analysing data over three years. They looked at several categories, including gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, social safety nets, life expectancy, freedom to make life choices, generosity of the population, and perceptions of internal and external corruption levels.
Afghanistan stacked up poorly in all six categories, as it did before the Taliban’s return to power. The country was under the United States occupation for 20 years during which Washington alone spent $145bn on development, according to reports by the US special inspector general for Afghanistan, according to Aljazeera.
Still, there were signs of increasing hopelessness.
Gallup conducted a poll in 2018 and found that few Afghans they surveyed had much hope for the future. In fact, the majority said they had no hope for the future.
Afghans have faced years of war, corruption, grinding poverty and lack of jobs.
When Masoud Ahmadi, a carpenter, returned to Afghanistan from neighbouring Pakistan after the 2001 collapse of the Taliban, his hopes for the future were bright.
He dreamed of opening a small furniture workshop, maybe employing as many as 10 people. Instead, sitting in his dusty six-foot by 10-foot workshop on Saturday, he said he opens just twice a week for lack of work.
“When the money came to this country, the leadership of the government took the money and counted it as their personal money, and the people were not helped to change their life for the better,” said Ahmadi, Aljazeera reported.
Since the Taliban returned to power last August, the country’s economy has been in free fall, worsened by the US sanctions and its diplomatic and financial isolation. The Taliban has urged the international community to recognise its new government as it struggles to revive the economy battered by decades of war and foreign interventions.