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Now that the names of the big tax dodgers and money launderers in the country have been made public by the Center for Investigative Journalism, Nepal, does the KP Oli government have the resolve to punish them? On the list of those who have invested abroad (it is illegal for Nepali citizens to do so), there is only a handful of politicians or their relatives. This should make it easier to marshal political consensus for prosecution. But even though top political leaders have been spared this time, among those named are the biggest businessmen and entrepreneurs of Nepal.This could be problematic because big business and politics have a close nexus. As our elections get more expensive, a huge sum is needed for a candidate to have a decent shot at winning. Reportedly, to contest a seat for the federal parliament, a major party candidate has to spend at least Rs 2-3 million—most of which comes from rich people like Binod Chaudhary and Upendra Mahato, both of whom are implicated via their associates in the latest CIJ Nepal exposé.

 There is no record of sums remitted out of Nepal informally in the form of hundi

Moreover, the current revelations—that Nepalis have deposited over Rs 52 billion in Swiss banks—represent only the tip of the iceberg. There is no accounting of the money siphoned off to neighbor­ing India, for instance. Nor is there any record of sums remitted out of Nepal informally in the form of hundi. Again, one reason no big politician features among the 55 Nepalis exposed this time could be that they are far too clever to park their ill-gotten wealth in Swiss banks and are rather using informal channels to expatriate their money—which is often later laun­dered back into the country as FDI.

People are not hopeful. The media have relentlessly writ­ten about the irregularities in the purchase of two Airbus aircraft—and which have been established by a parliamentary sub-committee no less—and yet the government has done nothing. Nor has there been much headway in prosecution on other big corruption cases like Sikta and Nepal Oil Corpo­ration. The ‘medical mafia’ that Dr Govinda KC rages against seems untouchable. It would thus be a miracle if any of those implicated in parking money abroad and/or laundering them back is punished. Those in power know the rot runs deep. They fear any attempt at fixing it could bring the whole gov­ernment edifice tumbling down.

The irony! The two co-chairmen of the ruling NCP, KP Sharma Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal, were on Jan 7 exploring ways to develop a common understand­ing on key national issues with Sher Bahadur Deuba, the leader of the Nepali Congress, the main opposition. A day later, Congress parliamentary party meeting endorsed a ‘shadow government’ to expose the executive’s wrongdoing. Whatever Deuba told his communist counterparts, the NC wants to corner the Oli government at a time when public dissatisfaction with its functioning is mounting. This shadow government will comprise federal MPs who will be given the responsibility of keeping a close tab on the workings of the assigned ministries. The NC feels its current criticism of the government on the purchase of two wide-body aircraft from Airbus; on Oli bringing tax and spy agen­cies, and big-tickets projects, under the PMO; on Nirmala Pant; and on healthcare reform is feeble, as the party lacks hard data to back up its anti-Oli tirades. By closely follow­ing individual ministries, the NC hopes to amass enough incriminating evidence with which to embarrass the government.

 This shadow government will comprise federal MPs

Formation of shadow governments is a com­mon practice in Westmin­ster-style democracies, helping with checks and balances. The idea remains untested in Nepal. Whether it will work may be the wrong question. A more pertinent one is: Why now? Badly humiliated in the three tier elections in 2017, there seemed to be no way back for the faction-ridden Grand Old Party. Yet PM Oli’s 10-month report card has been so dismal that the NC now feels confident of its ability to cash in on the growing anti-Oli public sentiment.

Following PM Oli’s address to the parliament on Jan 6, Congress MPs obstructed the house when they were stopped from questioning the prime minister. After initially resisting the pressure from the opposition, Speaker Krishna Bahadur Mahara eventually relented, and directed the prime minis­ter to answer questions raised in the parliament. Whatever the response to NC questions, the opposition will protest. The goal, on either side, is not to find amicable solutions to pressing issues but to defame the other side.

With both sides determined to play hardball, this war of words is sure to escalate, hampering lawmaking. The parliament needs to update 165 laws in two months to make the federal setup functional. But the NC is determined to cry foul and create hurdles every step of the way.

 Manchala Jha, a member of the Truth and Reconcili­ation Commission (TRC), made a rather depressing admission in an interview with us last week. “I now think the conflict victims will not get justice,” she said. Of the 63,000 cases registered with either the TRC or the Commission of Investigation on Enforced Disappeared Per­sons (CIEDP), the twin transitional justice bodies, not one has been settled. Many now think the four years since the creation of these two commissions have been wasted. Their extended terms expire on Feb 10. It is unclear whether their tenure will be extended again, whether the two commissions will be restructured or if they will be replaced by a ‘high level mechanism’ comprising major stakeholders. Conflict victims are divided on the best way forward, as are human rights activists. But the longer these cases of alleged human rights violations from the conflict period drag on, the harder they will be to resolve, not least because vital evi­dence will be destroyed with every passing year.

It is unclear whether the two commissions’ tenure will be extended again

But as Jha hinted in the interview, the kind of strong political will needed to drive the pro­cess forward has always been missing. The former Maoists, now a vital part of the federal govern­ment, want none of their top leaders prosecuted, even in cases of grave rights violations. Ditto with the Nepal Army, which has as resolutely shielded its top officials who have been similarly implicated. Meanwhile, the leadership of the Nepali Congress, the main opposition, which was leading the government at various times during the 10 years of the civil war, is as happy with the status quo.

With such indifference of the political class, it is hard to see transitional justice make much headway in Nepal soon. This is dangerous. Those who lost their loved ones during the conflict deserve a sense of closure, however imperfect. The current strategy of the major parties seems centered on wearing them out. But if there is no justice even in the most heinous rights violations, the already troubling state of impu­nity in the country will further deteriorate. The government’s failure in the rape-and-murder of 13-year-old Nirmala Pant would shock were it not part of the continued indifference and inaction of the political class on law and order. This is a recipe for anarchy.

Nepali Congress, the main opposition party, started its long-delayed Mahasamiti meeting on Dec 14. The four-day event was supposed to end on Dec 17. Yet after acri­monious exchanges among top leaders and pressure from the grassroots for a change after the party’s humiliating defeat in the 2017 elections, the jamboree of 1,600 delegates from all over Nepal concluded only on Dec 23. While top leaders tried to present a united face at the end of the gathering of the party’s second most powerful decision-making body, Congress is anything but united as rival factions constantly search for a leg-up ahead of the 2020 general convention, the most powerful body.First, some positives. From now the party will elect 13 of its 14 office-bearers, with the party president getting to pick only a treasurer. Until now the all-powerful president could pick more than half the number of office-bearers at his discretion. This alone would go a long way towards establishing internal democracy in the Grand Old Party.

In another positive, among the 14 office-bearers, seven will be elected from seven ethnic clusters as provided in the national charter, while one will be from the marginalized community. This should help the party shed its image of being an ‘exclusive bastion’ of Khas-Arya.

Yet even more meaningful are the vital things left out of the final memorandum. For instance, the debate between whether the party should have only one kind of membership, instead of the current ‘active’ and ‘general’ members, remains undecided. Interestingly, around 43 percent of the 1,600 delegates at the Mahasamiti were in favor of reinstating the country’s Hindu status. The memorandum is silent on this too. The memorandum expressed concern over the government’s ‘indifference’ to implementing federalism, its ‘authoritarian’ ways and its ‘institutionalization’ of corruption. Yet there is nothing to suggest that Congress, itself packed with leaders of dubious probity, can mount a strong challenge against the govern­ment on these fronts.

That, in any case, may not be the focus of its top leaders as they jockey for advantage ahead of the 2020 general convention. It was partly to accommodate all the competing interest groups that the number of office-bear­ers, as well as the size of the central working committee, had to be more than doubled. With many delegates at the Mahasamiti meeting wanting to turn the clock back to the pre-2006 dispensation, the party’s commitment to ‘socialism’ and ‘democracy’ also appears increasingly dubious. The ills that afflicted the party during the 2017 elections are far from healed.