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Kathmandu: A meeting of the out­going Council of Minister on Feb­ruary 15 concluded that the cabinet formed under the chairmanship of Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba had fulfilled its goals. The cabinet meeting held at the official residence of the prime minister at Baluwatar thanked all those who had supported the government, said outgoing Minister for Water Supply and Sanitation, Mahendra Yadav. The meeting also concluded that the government had been successful in its main task of holding local, central and provincial-level elections. RSS

Former Nepali Ambassa­dor to China Tanka Kar­ki espies a ‘troubling pattern’ in South Asia. “The common thread that binds the cur­rent events in the Maldives and block­ade-time Nepal is that both were man­ifestations of India’s nervousness at China’s rise in this sub-region,” he says.Karki is referring to the ongo­ing political crisis in the Maldives that was set in motion when the Supreme Court there decided to annul charges against nine oppo­sition figures, including former President Mohamed Nasheed, who has been living in exile in Britain since May 2016. In response, the current President Abdulla Yameen declared a state of emergency and ordered the arrest of two offending Supreme Court judges as well as of some opposition members.

As the tiny island country with a population of under 400,000 has been thrown into political turmoil, Yameen has reached out to China for political support. Meanwhile, Nasheed, who is seen as traditional­ly close to New Delhi, has gone so far as to ask India to militarily intervene to ‘save democracy’ in the Maldives.

It is true that China has stepped up its engagement in the Maldives: buying islands, building roads and sending its warships for ‘special training sessions’ with the Maldivi­an defense forces. China fears that without these ‘gestures of goodwill’ its room for maneuver in the strate­gically important Indo-Pacific seas would be fatally reduced. But India is as convinced that Chinese activ­ism in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and the Maldives is part of China’s ‘string of pearls’ strategy to surround it in the Indian Ocean.

Ports of call

In Pakistan, China has commit­ted over a billion dollars for the construction of the deep-sea port of Gwadar. This is part of the US $62-billion China-Pakistan Econom­ic Corridor (CPEC), a key compo­nent of President Xi Jinping’s signa­ture Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Sri Lanka, after its inability to ser­vice Chinese debt, had to recently hand over the Hambantota, another deep-sea port on the Indian Ocean, to China on a 99-year lease. In 2016, President Xi went to Bangladesh, another strong Indian ally, and com­mitted a whopping $21.5 billion for 26 different projects. Even in Bhu­tan, whose security is overseen by New Delhi, China wants to pry the tiny kingdom out of India’s clutch.

All these investments and mus­cle-flexing by China in India’s near neighborhood—in an area Jawaharlal Nehru famously described as falling under India’s ‘sphere of influence’—troubles the Indian establishment. Perhaps this is why Indian commen­tators have started openly talking about the ‘red lines’ that India’s close neighbors cannot cross with China.

“Even during the recent Nepal visit of Indian Minister of Exter­nal Affairs Sushma Swaraj, Indian commentators were warning that Nepal should not cross these red lines,” former envoy Karki says, “This red-line formulation is loaded with meaning.’’

One of the Indian commentators who had been consistently invok­ing the red lines is SD Muni, an old Nepal hand in New Delhi who is currently a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute for Defense Stud­ies and Analysis (IDSA). When this correspondent asked him if there was a lesson for Nepal on what is happening in the Maldives, Muni replied: “Nepal’s only lesson from this could be: avoid crossing red lines on India’s security sensitivities in dealing with China”.

The problem, as former envoy to China Karki points out, is that India does not clearly say what these red lines are, so they can be defined as New Delhi wishes. Nepal was deemed to have crossed one such line when its political leadership pushed ahead with (what India thought of as China-backed) consti­tution without consulting India, result­ing in nearly five months of border blockade.

Indian options

For Muni, one way KP Sharma Oli, the prime-minister-in-waiting, can avoid crossing India’s red lines is by not “roughing up India” over China. “Swaraj visited Kathmandu primar­ily in response to Oli’s request to Modi for support [for his prime min­istership],” says Muni. If Oli crosses India’s red lines, he knows the left alliance remains fragile and India “always has the option of leaning towards his rivals both within and outside the alliance”

Former Foreign Secretary and Nepal’s Permanent Representa­tive to the United Nations, Madhu Raman Acharya, for his part, thinks that while there are similarities between the Indo-China rivalry in the Maldives and their geopoliti­cal battle for supremacy in Nepal, unlike in Nepal, “India does not have extensive leverage over the Maldives, partly because of the dis­tance between the two countries, and partly because of the growing Chinese footprint there.’’

But, then, does he too believe Swaraj’s recent Nepal visit was moti­vated by China? “Definitely, the Chinese have been more active in Nepal and Swaraj came to put a lid on it.’’

In Acharya’s view, Swaraj’s visit, which was undertaken without consulting Nepal, also had a sinister mes­sage: if it serves Indian interests, India will not desist from breaching established diplo­matic norms and, in fact, “going to any extent.’’

Nevertheless, as Muni hinted, India’s intervention in Nepal is not a one-way street. Pramod Jaiswal, author of several books on Nepal-China relations, likewise, believes Swaraj was sent to Nepal only when Modi got a clear signal from Oli that he wanted to mend frayed relations with India.

Waiting and watching

“Yet New Delhi remains wary of Oli,” Jaiswal adds. After all, he says, Oli is someone who until the time of the blockade was reput­ed as one of India’s most trusted friends in Nepal. But then he sud­denly “jumped ship and went into China’s camp.’’ The blockade-time prime minister came to be seen as courageously standing up to the ‘Big Brother,’ and Oli’s brand of anti-India nationalism proved to be a smash hit at the hustings.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also an old political fox. In the lead up to the 2019 Lok Shabha election, he sees an opening in Oli’s recent overtures. Going into national elections, Modi would like to project himself as someone who has the support of not just the majority of his people but also of other countries in the region. “This is why India will make every effort to woo Oli,” says Jaiswal. The problem is, China too considers Oli as one of its own.

All these are indications that this old geopolitical game in Nepal, and in South Asia at large, could get curi­ouser and curiouser .

Following the conclusion of the election of the National Assembly, the federal upper house, the chief ministers of all seven provinces have been quickly finalized. How well do you know these provincial government heads? Here is a primer into their lives and achievements.

Sherdhan Rai, Province 1

The CPN-UML politburo member was born in Aamchowk, Bhojpur to Jagirman and Ram­rimaya Rai on Feb 13, 1971. Rai, who has a Masters in Sociology, started his political career in 1988. He spent his first three years in politics underground at the fag-end of the Panchayat rule. Rai has risen through the UML via his long-time involvement in its student wing. He won a seat to the new provincial assembly from Bhojpur 1 (B) constituency.

Mohammad Lal Babu Raut, Province 2

The Sanghiya Samajbadi Forum leader, who was born on June 22, 1966, is the sole Madhesi as well as the sole Muslim to be elected chief minister. A resident of Jagaranathpur rural municipality in Parsa, Raut has an MA in English as well as an LLB. He has over a decade of teaching experience in Thakuram Multiple Campus in Birgunj. Raut, an active participant in various Madhesi uprisings, won the provincial election from Parsa 1 (B) constituency.

Dor Mani Poudel, Province 3

The CPN-UML lawmaker in the Province 3 assembly was born on March 28, 1946. He is best known for his innovative development plans for Hetauda municipality. Poudel has twice served in the capacity of the mayor of Hetauda. Active in politics for the past 38 years, he has been jailed four times in his political career. He was elected to the provincial assembly from Makawanpur constituency 1 (B).

Prithvi Subba Gurung, Province 4

The CPN-UML Secretary, known for his humility and intellectual bent, was born on Feb 12, 1958, to Ganga Prasad and Chini Gurung, in Taxar of Lamjung district. Gurung is a graduate in science and a teacher by profession and has been in active politics since 1977. In the recent provincial election, he was elected from Lam­jung 1 (B) constituency.

Shankar Pokhrel, Province 5

UML standing committee member Shankar Pokhrel, born in 1964 in Bijauri of Dang dis­trict, is no stranger to power, having served in senior roles both in his party and the govern­ment previously. He is known for his organi­zational strength. Thought of as particularly close to party chairman KP Sharma Oli, Pokhrel was elected chief minister unopposed when the UML’s Province 5 Parliamentary Party unanimously approved his name. Pokhrel was elected to the provincial assembly from Dang 2 (A) constituency.

Mahendra Bahadur Shahi, Province 6 (nominated)

The CPN (Maoist Center) leader was a min­ister for energy in the outgoing government of Sher Bahadur Deuba. Shahi was a divisional commander in the Maoist military. Born in 1976, Shahi won the provincial elections from Kalikot 1 (B) constituency, beating his party col­league, Naresh Bhandari of Jumla, as the main chief minister contender.

Trilochan Bhatta, Province 7

The second Maoist leader to be selected chief minister, Bhatta was born in 1969 to father Prasad and mother Saradadevi. Bhatta is an old figure in Nepali communist movement, even though he might not be a familiar face in national politics. In 2006 he was nominated the chief of the Doti chapter of the mother Maoist party. Bhatta was elected to provincial assem­bly from Doti 1 (B) constituency.

CPN-UML Chairman KP Sharma—as the head of the communist coalition with CPN (Maoist Center), which together have an absolute majority in national parlia­ment—has started his second inning as prime minister. Due to a technicality in the country’s electoral laws, the new government could not be formed for nearly two-and-a-half months of the federal elections.

Now that it is in place, what do people have to look for­ward to? “First and foremost, the left coalition must fulfill the promises on stability and prosperity that it made on the campaign trail,” says political analyst Krishna Khanal. “Oth­erwise, I don’t think Nepali people have traditionally had high expectations of their governments.”

The most remarkable aspect of the latest change of guard at Singadurbar, as Khanal points out, is that a government with people’s direct mandate has been formed after a long time. “The previous time Oli was prime minister, he only had technical mandate to govern. Not so this time,” Khanal says. If he wants, Oli can now enact sweeping reforms to make the government people-friendly, Khanal adds.

“I think the biggest challenge for the new government will be to implement the new constitution,” says former chief election commissioner Bhojraj Pokharel, “State-restructur­ing, as provided in the new constitution, will be a big chal­lenge.” Pokharel adds that state-restructuring is not limited to redrawing the country’s internal boundaries. “It is as much about having the right manpower and the right mindset to bring about sweeping changes in our governance, as required under a federal set-up”.

Both Khanal and Pokharel worry if the country has ade­quate resources to properly implement the federal set-up.

Another tricky issue for the new government will be addressing the demands of the Madhesi parties. Unlike in other six provinces where the left alliance will rule, in Prov­ince 2, the Sanghiya Samajbadi Forum and the Rastriya Janata Party Nepal, two Madhesi parties, are forming a coalition. They come to power on the promise of amending the con­stitution to establish the agendas raised by various Madhesi uprisings. Yet changing provincial contours via constitution amendment, as the Madhesi parties want, is a devilishly diffi­cult business. “But since the left alliance has a strong central government, in addition to ruling six of the seven provinces, it will have no good excuse to keep pushing aside the Madhesi demands,” says Pokharel.

All this suggests the new prime minister’s plate will be brimful from Day One.