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Kathmandu Metropolitan City Mayor Balendra Shah, popularly known as Balen, continues to enjoy significant support among young voters, though his popularity has shown signs of decline following the Gen Z protests. Critics argue that his inability to respond effectively to incidents of vandalism and arson during the September 8–9 protests dented his image as a mayor.

As a result, it remains uncertain whether Shah command the same level of public support he did during the 2022 local elections. Despite this uncertainty, Shah remains a key political figure among emerging and alternative political forces, at least in perception. 

Several newly formed parties appear eager to secure his backing ahead of upcoming elections. A few weeks ago, Kul Man Ghising, who recently launched the Ujyalo Nepal Party, met Shah seeking his support. Similarly, on December 22, Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) Chair Rabi Lamichhane held discussions with Shah, fueling speculation about possible political collaboration.

Balen has given a clear signal that he supports emerging political forces challenging traditional parties, but it remains uncertain whether he will publicly endorse or align himself with any specific party. So far, his message suggests support for the emergence of new political parties. However, it is unclear whether he would engage in active politics like Rabi. After the Gen Z protests, the Nepal Army reportedly offered him the premiership, but he declined it.

Although it is unclear whether these new political forces will unite, there is a growing sentiment among them that electoral cooperation is essential to challenge the dominance of traditional parties—namely the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML. This view is also echoed by several self-proclaimed Gen Z leaders, who are pressing alternative political groups to form a united front. Among the new parties, Rabi Lamichhane-led Rastriya Swatantra Party remains the most influential. Emerging as the fourth-largest party in the House of Representatives in the 2022 elections, the RSP disrupted Nepal’s conventional political landscape.

Although the party faced internal setbacks after the Gen Z movement, including the departure of some key leaders, it partially recovered through unification with the Bibeksheel Party. After his recent release from jail, Lamichhane has intensified political consultations. He met Prime Minister Sushila Karki to pledge the RSP’s support to the government. However, his meeting with Mayor Shah attracted wider attention and triggered renewed debate about the possible consolidation of new political forces ahead of the March 5 elections. Such an alliance, if realized, could pose a serious challenge to Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML.

Despite facing multiple charges related to cooperative fraud, Lamichhane continues to enjoy personal popularity. A strong communicator, he has a distinct ability to dominate headlines and connect directly with the public. He is skilled in the art of communication, as he can express his ideas, feelings, and information clearly and effectively, while also listening to and responding to his supporters. Unlike leaders of traditional parties, Lamichhane’s appeal is largely personality-driven rather than party-based. Many supporters vote for him as an individual rather than for the RSP as an institution. Consequently, there are concerns about whether the RSP can sustain its growth in Lamichhane’s absence.

In contrast, Balen does not directly communicate with the masses. Since becoming mayor of Kathmandu, he has rarely engaged with the public or faced the media. Instead, he often uses social media platforms to vent his anger and criticize mainstream political parties. Like Lamichhane, Balen also stokes anti–mainstream party sentiment. At the same time, he has not shown any clear ideological inclination.

But Lamichhane and Balen both are non-ideological.  Their stance on key constitutional issues—including federalism and full commitment to the 2015 Constitution—remains ambiguous. Notably, during last year’s pro-monarchy protests, the RSP maintained silence. 

Nevertheless, Lamichhane avoids conventional political jargon and instead focuses on governance failures and everyday problems faced by ordinary citizens—a strategy that resonates with frustrated voters. Lamichhane was widely popular until two years ago; however, allegations related to cooperative fraud have affected his public standing.

This populist appeal gives Lamichhane the potential to draw voters away from the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML, particularly in urban constituencies. If the RSP, the Ujyalo Nepal Party, Balendra Shah, and other alternative forces form an electoral alliance, it could significantly erode the traditional voter base of mainstream parties, at least in urban areas.

However, these new political forces face structural limitations. Their organizational presence in rural areas remains weak, and they lack strong networks in the Tarai region. While they managed notable urban victories in 2022 despite limited organization, sustaining and expanding such success will be more challenging without strong grassroots foundations.

Since the 2022 elections, the RSP has expanded its organizational reach, but its rural penetration remains limited. Still, rising anti-establishment sentiment and public frustration with traditional parties may push alternative forces toward unity. If these parties manage to coordinate effectively, they could emerge as a serious electoral threat—if not by winning outright, then by decisively weakening the dominance of Nepal’s long-established political parties.

Leaders argue that if there is an electoral alliance among the new political forces, with open backing from figures like Balen, it could force the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML into an electoral alliance of their own. The two key developments—Rabi Lamichhane’s release from jail and his meeting with Shah—have alarmed mainstream political parties. At the same time, major political parties are holding regular meetings to chart their strategies.

The government and major political parties in the country have reached an agreement on creating an environment conducive for the upcoming March 5 elections to the House of Representatives.

The agreement was reached during a discussion held at the call of President Ram Chandra Paudel at the Rashtrapati Bhawan, Sheetal Niwas, on Tuesday afternoon, between Prime Minister Sushila Karki, Nepali Congress President and former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, CPN-UML Chair and former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, and Communist Party of Nepal (CPN) Coordinator and former Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal.

According to the President's Press Advisor Kiran Pokharel, an agreement has also been reached to hold detailed discussions later to create an environment for elections. 

"The election has been announced to provide a solution to the serious and sensitive situation in the country. Keeping this seriousness in mind, it is the responsibility of all of us to make the elections successful," Press Advisor Pokharel quoted President Paudel as having said in the meeting.

On the occasion, President Paudel also urged the top leaders of the three major political parties, including the Prime Minister, to make the upcoming House of Representatives elections scheduled for March 5 a success. 

Elections are the only suitable option to resolve the current complex circumstances facing the country.

Prime Minister Sushila Karki, and top guns of three major political parties jointly called on President Ram Chandra Paudel today.

PM Karki, Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba, CPN-UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli and Nepali Communist Party Coordinator Pushpa Kamal Dahal are holding the meeting with the Head of the State, according to the President's secretariat.

It is the first time that the top leaders and PM Karki held a joint meeting with the President after the September 8-9 Gen Z movement.

They are discussing the current political situation including the March 5 election.

Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Chen Song paid a farewell call on President Ram Chandra Paudel today.

During the meeting held at Sheetal Niwas, they discussed the matters of Nepal-China relations and mutual welfare and interest, according to the Office of the President. 

President Paudel thanked Ambassador Chen for successfully completing his term.