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The current coalition government led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal may not collapse in the near future, though Prime Minister Dahal himself seems less certain. Political analysts and leaders agree that as long as the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML, the first and second largest parties respectively, do not join forces to form a new government, Dahal will continue to exploit the situation. However, the complexity of Nepal’s political parties makes it challenging for analysts to make definitive predictions. Few anticipated that Dahal would expel the Nepali Congress from the government on March 4 and ally with his rival, KP Sharma Oli of UML. 

For over a year, Dahal has remained in power somehow, securing the vote of confidence three times, highlighting his government’s fragility. Since the beginning, even Dahal has appeared uncertain about the government’s longevity. He often tells his colleagues that despite predictions he wouldn't last a couple of months, he has managed to stay in power for over a year. His remarks in public also indicate his doubts about the government's survival. There are several factors that are feeding Dahal’s doubt, including the possibility that coalition partners, mainly CPN (Unified Socialist), could withdraw support anytime. 

This uncertainty has also made Dahal desperate to cling on to power. To bolster his position, Dahal facilitated a split in the Janata Samajbadi Party led by Upendra Yadav, creating a new party of seven lawmakers who now support his government. Dahal was worried after reports that Yadav was planning to pull out its support from the coalition and join forces with Congress, the main opposition, in a bid to form a new government.    

Dahal’s CPN (Maoist Center) has just 32 seats in the House of Representatives, which makes it a distant third largest party after the UML and NC. Yet, Dahal managed to become prime minister after the 2022 general elections, which took much negotiations, political maneuverings, and making and breaking of alliances.    

Dahal’s guile and cunning has kept him at the helm so far, but he has yet to (and he may never) shake off the specter of one of the coalition partners turning against him, reducing his government into a minority status.  

With Yadav’s Janata Samajbadi Party out of the picture, Prime Minister Dahal is now concerned that CPN (Unified Socialist) Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal might withdraw support to the coalition due to his growing closeness with Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba. While this might not immediately topple the government, it would definitely force Dahal to reaffirm his majority, further weakening his political standing. Additionally, Rastriya Swatantra Party Chair Rabi Lamichhane, also the minister for home affairs, faces the allegation of embezzling cooperative funds, and Dahal fears a court order might force Lamichhane to resign, prompting RSP to leave the government.

Political parties have finally agreed to form a parliamentary committee to probe the misuse of funds by multiple cooperatives across the country. Had Lamichhane’s name been included in the probe committee’s terms of reference, he might have resigned. But to prevent this, Prime Minister Dahal successfully convinced NC President Deuba to adopt a more flexible stance. It was NC that first raised the demand for a parliamentary panel to probe the financial scandals in various cooperatives, including the one linked with Home Minister Lamichhane.  

Dahal’s visit to Deuba’s residence before the budget session suggests a possible agreement between the two leaders. After forming a new  ruling coalition in March by breaking the alliance with the Congress, Dahal feels external forces might attempt to remove him from power. This explains his attempt at appeasing India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, which is likely to get a historic third term as several exit polls indicate.

After parting ways with the NC, Dahal has faced increasing difficulties. Relegated to the opposition bench, the NC has been creating obstacles in the Parliament and has even initiated street protests, aiming to topple the government. There are also reports about the NC holding back-channel negotiations with the UML to form a new coalition, the one that is stable and strong.   

Within the UML, opinions are divided: some leaders believe a coalition with NC would ensure stability, while others argue that as key electoral competitors, the two parties should not ally. Nonetheless, it won’t be surprising if they come together. Some NC leaders want to join the government, fearing that the current home administration under Lamichhane might target them in corruption scandals.

At this juncture, it is difficult to gauge Oli's intentions. The UML leader has been saying that the internal and external environment is not conducive for him to become prime minister, which is why he is currently supporting Dahal and focusing on strengthening his party. 

Oli aims to make UML the largest party by inducting lawmakers from fringe parties. But at the same time he has not completely ruled out the possibility of forming an alliance with the Congress. Some leaders say Oli’s preferred option is to ally with the Maoists and ultimately seek to merge the two parties, with UML leaders in dominant positions. Oli might even try to secure the position of president after the 2027 elections, while his current targets remain NC and RSP, seeing the former as a key electoral competitor and the latter as a formidable threat to all major parties. 

With both ruling and opposition parties expending significant energy either to maintain or disrupt the coalition, governance, economy, and development are taking a hit.

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is preparing to reshuffle the Cabinet.

Prime Minister Dahal is to reshuffle the Cabinet by roping in the Nagarik Unmukti Party.

Nagarik Unmukti Party Chairperson Ranjita Shrestha said that she will be appointed as the minister within a week.

She said that the Prime Minister has promised her to give the responsibility of Minister for Culture, Tourism and Civil Aviation within a week.

Prime Minister Dahal is preparing to appoint Shrestha as the minister by recalling Hit Bahadur Tamang.

Party founder Resham Chaudhary and Ranjita Shrestha still have differences within the party.

There is still a dispute between them about whether to support the government or not.

The Lumbini Province government has presented its policies and programs for the upcoming fiscal year 2024/25  in  the Province Assembly on Monday.

Province Chief Amik Sherchan presented the policies and programs of the government in the Assembly today. 

The government has pledged a feasibility study to establish a community childcare center at four locations: Ghorahi, Lumbini, Butwal, and Nepalgunj within the province. 

On the occasion, the Province Chief said the concept aims to retain working women who are likely to quit their jobs after having a baby due to their prescribed roles of taking care of the child. 

The province government assures of coming up with a 10-year strategy to combat early marriage and make the province free from child marriage by 2030 AD.  It has announced plans to provide self-defense training for girls, establish a province-level child protection home, and so on.

Subsidy in agriculture based on production, modernization of agriculture with the use of technology, feasibility study for the Buddha Touristic Circuit: Lumbini-Dhorpatan-Dunai-Jumla-Khalanga-Rara-Kankrebihar-Kohalpur-Lumbini', promotion of trans-province cooperation, construction of disabled-friendly roadways and the launch of a special drinking water programme at Koilabas point of Dang are among the announcements incorporated in the government plans and policies.

The government has pursued policies of discouraging migration from the hill to Terai by establishing model settlements within the villages, building an herb processing industry within the province, launching awareness programmes to minimize human-wildlife conflict, operating special classes for autistic children, and ensuring an internet facility for higher education students.

Similarly, it had pledged to recognize the mother tongue as an official language and manage air ambulance facilities for the rescue of expectant mothers.

Lawmakers speaking in the 'zero hour' in the House of Representatives today drew the attention of the government towards the problem of power outage (load-shedding) in various districts.

They drew the government's attention towards Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) resorting to power cuts or 'load-shedding' amidst the increasing temperature in the Tarai districts.

Lawmaker Dhawal Shumsher Janga Bahadur Rana urged the government to make arrangements for the regular power supply as the power cuts amidst the excessive heat has made the life of people further difficult.

Dr Toshima Karki drew the government's attention, saying the election constituency number 3 of Lalitpur district was facing shortage of water despite the location in the area of the Melamchi Water Supply Project's water tank with a storage capacity of 18 million liters.

Deepak Bahadur Singh called attention of the government towards the Republic Markers located in the precincts of Narayanhiti Palace not being opened for viewing for the general public despite five years since they were constructed.

Dilendra Prasad Badoo expressed his objection, saying the present government has reduced the grant amount to the local levels in contravention of the main spirit of federalism.

Deepa Sharma said that the people of Banke district and the Karnali Province have not got to experience that the 'load-shedding' has come to an end.

Durga Rai drew the government's attention towards the urgent need of road construction in Bhojpur district while Dev Prasad Timilsina urged the government to conduct an assessment of the damage caused by storm and hailstone in various places of the country and provide compensation and relief to the affected people.

Nagina Yadav demanded that the problems faced by the farmers such as shortage of fertilizer, irrigation facilities and drinking water should be addressed.

Pratima Gautam stressed on the need of resolving the problem related to the management of solid waste and road footpath through discussions while Pratikshya Tiwari called for finding a sustainable solution to the problem of shortage of drinking water and irrigation in the Madhes province.

Prem Suwal inquired about the works being carried out by the Ministry of Land Management, Cooperatives and Poverty Alleviation. "What has the Ministry of Poverty Alleviation been doing," he questioned.

Similarly, Narayani Rana, Prem Bahadur Maharjan, Basudev Ghimire, Bindabasini Kansakar, Binita Kathayat, Dhruba Bahadur Pradhan, Nirmala Koirala, Naina Kala Thapa, Nisha Dangi, Narayan Prasad Acharya and Deepak Giri called attention of the government towards the damage caused by the storm, the sky-rocketing market prices of essentials and the problem of load-shedding seen in various districts.

Likewise, lawmakers Dilli Raj Panta, Tara Lama Tamang and Teju Lal Chaudhay drew the government's attention towards the problem of overcrowding at the Kailali District Prison, around 447 sugarcane farmers in Kanchanpur district not getting the subsidy amount provided by the government, and the frequent power outages in the districts of the Tarai/Madhes, respectively, and urged the government to urgently address the problems.