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In recent weeks, the frequency and intensity of pro-Monarchy protests in Nepal have escalated, attracting significant attention both domestically and internationally. The international media, particularly in India, has been extensively covering these protests, fueling interest among political leaders and strategists worldwide. Indian media, in particular, is filled with news, opinions, and interviews related to the protests, further intensifying the global focus on Nepal's political landscape.

The protests gained widespread attention after the violent unrest on March 28, which resulted in two deaths and numerous injuries. Over 70 people have been arrested, including senior figures from the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), such as Dhawal Shumsher Rana and Rabindra Mishra. Durga Prasai, a businessman and self-proclaimed leader of the March 28 protest, is currently on the run. The RPP, which was divided over whether to support Prasai’s movement, has continued to push its cause, organizing a moderate demonstration in Kathmandu on April 8. They have declared indefinite protests starting April 20. The future of the movement, particularly under the leadership of Panchayat-era veteran Navaraj Subedi, remains uncertain.

After the March 28 violence, Subedi’s group, led by Jagman Gurung, ceased protests. There is a lack of cooperation between Gurung’s faction and other royalist groups like the RPP led by Rajendra Lingden and the Rastriya Prajatantra Party Nepal led by Kamal Thapa. The royalist camp remains divided due to personal clashes, though they have agreed to support each other’s protests. Despite this, they do not consider one another as leaders. Before the March 28 protest, Lingden had warned that backing Prasai could lead to the party's downfall, but senior leaders like Rana and Mishra chose to work under his leadership, which ultimately led to the violence.

Why are pro-monarchy protests taking place?

Nepal was ruled by the Shah monarchy for centuries, except during the 104 years of the Rana autocracy, which significantly weakened the monarchy, though it remained as an institution. In 2008, Nepal abolished the monarchy as part of a peace agreement with the Maoist rebels, who had demanded the end of the monarchy and the establishment of a federal republic. King Gyanendra, the last monarch, did not resist the move, as republican sentiments were overwhelming, even within monarchist factions like the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML. The country also became a secular state in 2006, a move that has been controversial among certain sections of the population.

Since the monarchy’s abolition, a section of the population has expressed dissatisfaction with the manner in which key decisions, like the monarchy’s removal and the shift to a secular state, were made. Initially, pro-monarchy forces were silent, fearful of backlash from political parties, but over time, frustration with the political leadership's failure to deliver on promises of development and stability grew. As a result, pro-monarchy forces, including former King Gyanendra, have been framing the republican system as a failure, arguing that the monarchy could restore stability. Gyanendra has hinted that as he nears 80, he may push for the monarchy's revival. He has reportedly stated that if no progress is made in one or two years, he will abandon the effort, emphasizing that he does not want violence in his name.

Not the first time

No, this is not the first time pro-monarchy and Hindu state supporters have protested. Over the past decade and a half, there have been several such protests, including in 1990, 2021, 2023 and 2024. These protests have often resulted in clashes with the police. For example, in January 2021, thousands of pro-monarchy supporters rallied, drawing international attention to their cause, though the protests eventually subsided. In 2024, similar protests in Kathmandu led to confrontations with law enforcement, with the RPP regularly organizing protests in favor of monarchy and a Hindu state. Even during the constitution drafting process in 2015, pro-monarchy parties voted to retain the monarchy.

What triggered the latest protests?

The most recent wave of protests was sparked by a speech from King Gyanendra on Democracy Day (February 19). Traditionally, the king delivers a message on this day, but this year's speech deviated from previous ones. The king called for national unity and prosperity, urging citizens to support the institution of monarchy for national progress. Pro-monarchy forces quickly united, interpreting his speech as a call for the monarchy's restoration. Prior to the speech, protests were already being organized, with supporters reaching out to former senior officials for support. On March 9, thousands of people greeted Gyanendra upon his arrival in Kathmandu, which boosted the morale of his supporters.

Meanwhile, a loose network of pro-monarchy groups led by Navaraj Subedi had been preparing for a “third people's movement.” However, Durga Prasai, who was preparing for the March 28 protests, refused to align with the leadership of Subedi or RPP, eventually consolidating the movement under his own. This caused a split, with senior RPP leaders like Lingden and Thapa staying away from the Tinkune protests, though their supporters were involved. The protest turned violent.

How is the mainstream responding?

The major political parties, particularly the ruling communist factions—CPN-UML, CPN (Maoist Center), and CPN (Unified Socialist)—are sharply criticizing the monarchy and King Gyanendra. Pushpa Kamal Dahal and KP Sharma Oli have been particularly vocal in condemning the king. While these parties have organized protests against the monarchy, the Nepali Congress has not yet joined in the street protests, though it has expressed concerns about the growing monarchy movement. This situation has created a clear divide between monarchy supporters and republicans.

Is India behind?

There is no solid evidence to suggest that India is backing the pro-monarchy protests. High-level government officials in India  have denied any official Indian support. However, some in Nepal's ruling CPN-UML have speculated about India's involvement, though the party later clarified that it had no evidence of such support. Nepal’s Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba raised the issue with her Indian counterpart S Jaishankar, who denied any backing for the protests. Additionally, Nepal’s Ambassador to India, Shankar Sharma, reportedly met with Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, a known supporter of the monarchy, but there is no clear indication of official support from India.

Will the movement succeed?

The pro-monarchy movement has weakened since the March 28 violence. Durga Prasai, who had mobilized thousands of people, is now on the run, and his absence poses a challenge for the movement. The RPP, which has a small presence in the Parliament, continues to advocate for the monarchy but struggles to unite royalist factions. While the RPP will likely continue its protests, these movements are unlikely to force the political parties into making significant changes. Royalist forces are unclear about what kind of political arrangement they want, but unless there is a dramatic shift, the current political system is unlikely to change.

The protests have brought all political parties together against the monarchy, but if the political leadership does not address the frustrations of the public, the discontent could pose a threat to the current system. What is clear, however, is that support for the monarchy is growing, largely due to the perceived failure of political parties to deliver on their promises.

Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli has urged the businesspersons to invest confidently, while sharing that there is political stability in the country. The stable politics has paved the way for economic development.

Addressing the inaugural function of the 74th annual general assembly of Nepal Chamber of Commerce on Wednesday, PM Oli said the industrialists could forward constructive and creative schemes with use of science and technology to augment investment.

PM Oli reminded that artificial intelligence (AI) could be utilized for production and productivity rather than for spreading misleading information and defaming people and institutions. "We are in need of increasing foreign investment and joint ventures. You should convince the foreigners to invest in potential areas," he said, adding that the investment is essential not only for businesspersons but for the entire country.

According to him, the Chamber had hailed the ordinance the government brought for economic development. He praised the Chambers' stand of favouring the cause for good.

Moreover, the PM said the country needs good governance and development, but corruption is creeping surreptitiously. Corruption control warrants all sides' cooperation, he stressed. 

On a different note, he reminded the government formed by the two large parties was for change and the coalition would continue even after the next election. 

PM Oli thanked the Chamber of Commerce for assisting the government in the issues relating to policy formulation.

Different industrialists and businesspersons were given awards by the PM at the program.

The PM also released a book published by the Chamber of Commerce.

Indian Minister for Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare Shivraj Singh Chauhan paid a courtesy call on Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli on Wednesday. 

Minister Chauhan, who is currently in Nepal to attend a meeting of agriculture ministers of Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), called on PM Oli at the latter's official residence, Baluwatar.

Referring to dimensions of the traditional relations between Nepal and India, Minister Chauhan stressed the need for bilateral cooperation to augment the modernization of agriculture, food security and economic development. 

The bilateral agreements and joint working mechanism should be forwarded and for which he was ready to work in a dynamic manner with equal concern on pressing issues. 

He argued that the recent meeting between Nepali Prime Minister Oli and the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Bangkok, Thailand, was an opportunity to create a promising future for the two countries.

On the occasion, PM Oli expressed the view that the two neighbours should move forward together for economic development, including modernization of the agricultural sector.

The Indian Agriculture Minister reminded that the meeting with the Indian counterpart in Thailand created an atmosphere of trust to move ahead together for economic development. Oli stressed the need to embrace the changing global environment and unite for national, regional and international interests. 

PM'S Chief Advisor Bishnu Prasad Rimal and Indian Ambassador to Nepal Naveen Srivastava were also present in the meeting.

Russia has formally invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Moscow's triumph Day Parade on May 9, which commemorates the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany in World War II.

The invitation was confirmed by Andrey Rudenko, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister. This comes in the midst of speculation that PM Modi may skip the event, Firstpost reported.This suggests that PM Modi's visit is now being discussed between the two countries, with Moscow hoping that the Indian Prime Minister will attend the high-profile event.

Russia has invited leaders of several friendly nations to attend this year's Victory Day parade.In January 1945, the Soviet Army launched an offensive against Germany, according to Firstpost.

For the first time in almost five years, Prime Minister Modi traveled to Russia in July 2024. At an economic conclave in 2019, he traveled to Vladivostok, a place in the far east.
PM Modi invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to come to India during the most recent visit and Putin has already accepted.

However, the dates of Putin's visit have not been revealed yet.