To be a desert is not our destiny

The National Youth Policy formulated eight years ago has defined those aged 16 to 40 years as youths. National Census-2021 states that youths constitute 42.56 percent of the national population, which stood at 40.35 percent during the census conducted in the year 2011. 

According to data from the Foreign Employment Department, the number of Nepalis going abroad for work has increased by more than 21 percent in the fiscal year 2022-23 compared to the fiscal 2021-22. In 2022-23, a staggering 771,327 people went to countries other than India for jobs, more than 630,000 people took work permits in 2021-22 whereas in 2020-21 only 166,698 people went for foreign employment. In 2019-20, 368,433 people took work permit, followed by 508,828 in 2018-19, 612,685 people in 2017-18, 354,533 people in 2016-17 and 640,981 people in 2015-16, whereas 693,032 people (new labor permits and renewals included) Nepali went abroad for jobs in 2014-15. These data show that youth exodus for jobs peaked in 2015-16 before reaching a new high in 2022-23.

Why do a large number of Nepalis seem to think that their country of birth does not have much to offer in terms of employment opportunities? Is it solely because of indifference on the part of the state? 

The Constitution of Nepal 2015 has regarded the right to employment as a fundamental right, but this right, like several other rights, remain largely on paper.

It is not that the government has not tried to reduce unemployment. With the aim of providing jobs, the government launched the Prime Minister’s Employment Program five years ago. 

Thousands of youths benefited from this program that basically provides 100 days’ employment to unemployed people in a year, which still meant too little for millions of unemployed people, 

Besides, how many people can make a living for themselves and their families by getting gainful employment for 100 days in a year? 

While the Nepali job market scenario remains grim, there’s no drought of promises to create jobs in the country. For instance, the Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry has announced plans to create 2.2m jobs by 2030. The plans are great, whether they will materialize or not is a different thing altogether. 

The 15th periodic plan of the National Planning Commission has envisaged a high-level National Employment Authority for creating jobs, coordinating with various agencies and regulating the employment sector by bringing Youth Self-employment Fund, Poverty Alleviation Fund and NPC on board. 

Like previous editions, this periodic plan has also made some lofty promises. It has pledged to create 2.5m more jobs, increase workforce participation rate from 38.5 percent to 49 percent, increase the share of the formal sector in employment from 36.5 percent to 50 percent and provide professional, technical and skill training to 500,000 people. 

What’s more, it plans to establish employment information centers at all local levels and tie them up with the employment system of the organized sector, reduce industrial labor disputes and develop sound labor relations. 

However, these tall promises should be compared with the situation on the ground. The Nepal Labor Force Survey conducted about six years ago put the unemployment rate in the country at a staggering 11.4 percent, compared to a dismal 2.1 percent and 1.8 percent in surveys conducted a decade ago and 25 years ago, respectively. 

In a predominantly agricultural country, the farm sector appears to be shrinking by the day, if findings of the National Census-2021 are any indication. Per the census, the population involved in agriculture is 50.1 percent, which marks a sharp decline from 65.6 percent during the census conducted in 2011.

These statistics point toward a declining interest of the public toward agriculture, due, perhaps, to factors like dismal returns resulting from the lack of irrigation facilities and market.  

Summing up, time has come for the government to walk the talk and prove to the youth that there is no dearth of employment opportunities in Nepal, whether it’s in the farms or other sectors.   

Nepal’s economic problems are structural

The ongoing political debate in Nepal, centered around a choice between a republic and a monarchy, has escalated over time. While discussions are confined to the political sphere, such debates have gained momentum as Nepal’s democracy fails to deliver meaningful economic results. Nepal’s economic performance is bleak, and a deep sense of injustice and powerlessness has prevailed among its citizens. When distrust erodes people’s faith in democratic institutions, demagogues are likely to surf on the wave of political and economic populism. Compounding these factors, the government’s procrastination in taking concrete steps to find long-term solutions to fix the underlying causes has only exacerbated the crisis.

The challenges enumerated above are consequences of a more profound force that has led to a presently dysfunctional system - a manifestation of the country’s pseudo-democracy. In Nepal, the conceptualization of democracy seems confined predominantly to its intrinsic value. However, the other instrumental facet of democracy, which serves as an effective means of socio-economic and political transformation, is inadequately realized. Consequently, a nuanced and timely discourse on this matter becomes imperative, as it can only positively impact people’s lives and eventually disperse crowds of illusions.

Short-termism of the financial sector

The pervasive short-termism in Nepal’s financial sector has diverted more finance into unproductive assets such as real estate and the stock market. An increasing emphasis on quarterly returns has crowded out long-term capital investment, and economic research and development. This narrow-minded approach not only impedes innovation, productivity, competitiveness, and job creation but also exacerbates the brain drain of youth, pushing them to seek opportunities abroad.

Who, then, is responsible for the wrongdoing? The nasty form of corporate governance has continuously tempered the economy, forgoing shadow alliances with corrupt politicians and bureaucrats who, in turn, share in illicit revenue. Such extractive institutional nexus has ruptured the interlinkage between the productive sector, job creation, and overall economic progress. The resultant frustration and anxiety among the general public are tangible, contributing to the prevailing discontent and fueling political and economic unrest in the nation. To foster genuine and sustainable growth, a shift toward responsible corporate governance and a recalibration of private sector priorities is imperative.

Slow or absent government

So far, the government’s action has been ‘too little, too late’, reflecting a reactive approach to addressing economic problems, often with detrimental consequences. Nepal’s economic problems are structural and, thus, need structural overhaul rather than short-term ‘jugaad’. For instance, the government needs to be reflective of the private sector's disinterest in long-term capital investment and its preference for trading rather than bolstering its manufacturing and service base. Why do investors continuously yell that the current economic structure demoralizes long-term capital investment and lament the government’s commitment to fixing it? The role of government transcends beyond merely revenue collection, market regulation, and correcting market failures. It must demonstrate a significant investment pledge in research and development and foster an environment where the private sector can operate with confidence and a sense of long-term commitment. This calls for a paradigm shift in how economic organizations are governed, how their relationships are structured, and how economic actors interconnect.

Low level of premature deindustrialization

With globalization, developing countries, including Nepal, witnessed a rapid shift from agriculture to the service sector, bypassing industry-led economic growth much earlier than the historical average. In his 2016 study, economist Dani Rodrik argued that premature deindustrialization could negatively impact economic growth through job loss and lower comparative advantage due to poor technology. An analysis of Nepal’s economic data (1975-2016) indicates that the manufacturing sector has shrunk, and there is a need to increase the share of manufacturing in national output and create jobs. Unemployment and economic frustration could trigger political instability and illiberal politics. Most importantly, only manufacturing can fill the vacuum of Nepal’s market gap of labor demand vs skill mismatch. It is especially true for the semi-skilled and unskilled labor force who outgrew agriculture but are ill-equipped for high-tech jobs. Reindustrialization is not an unavoidable fate and is essential for a change in the present economic structure to increase employment and bolster the production base. The question is how to design tools that help achieve this directionality with a purpose.

Democracy must deliver

The public’s desire for change resonates with their expectations for increased job opportunities, enhanced livelihood, and better public services. This collective aspiration has historically fueled the political call for democracy in Nepal. Over time, if democracy fails to deliver tangible economic progress, questions naturally arise on its appropriateness, leading people to explore alternative paths. While the intrinsic values inherent in democracy are significant, they alone are insufficient for sustenance. A democratic system must also demonstrate economic efficacy, delivering concrete economic results to win over citizens for more extensive support and credibility.

This means rethinking corporate governance where both government and the private sector adopt a mission-oriented approach for overcoming structural economic challenges. Only the government, with its unparalleled authority, holds the key to steering transformative change on a scale that can redefine the dynamics of economic progress and societal interaction. But, at present, the government itself requires reawakening. The current status quo is failing too many people; therefore, a delivery-centered democratic reorientation is only a long-term solution to public dissent.

 

The author is a public policy candidate at Willy Brandt School in Germany. He has served as a research officer at the Office of the Investment Board Nepal. He can be reached for comments at [email protected]


 

The debate triggered by menstrual leave

A week ago, Lumbini Province made headlines by being the first province to introduce menstrual leave. While a large number of people, both men and women, congratulated the provincial government for being sensitive toward women’s needs, some critics were too quick to ridicule it. Those in support acknowledged the state’s empathy toward women who undergo physical and mental (still) pain when they have their cycles and that they need accommodative arrangements at the workplace. Those who did not approve the leave considered it was an added luxury for women.

A few days later, similar but stronger voices were heard in India when Union Minister for Women and Child Development, Smriti Irani, spoke against the need for specific policies related to menstruation as she termed it was not a ‘handicap’. The statement resulted in a wider discussion on the topic. Critics gave examples of women in sports who do not have the liberty to take a leave on a match day; some suggested that women could avail normal sick leave instead of a new type of leave. While the supporters of the leave talked about equality in real terms as men and women have different biology and different health needs.

I am neither a human resources expert nor am I an expert on menstrual hygiene, but I am a woman who has undergone this process to give birth to two kids and am familiar with women who experience menstruation-related pain or problems. In fact, numerous studies conducted in Nepal and abroad have shown that girl students are more likely to miss school during their menstrual cycles. To address the issue of this absenteeism, schools started providing free sanitary pads and menstruation health management became a topic of health awareness.

Working women also face problems when their periods start suddenly or suffer from excessive bleeding. In general, menstruating women suffer from cramps, low back pain, fatigue, discomfort and migraine, among others. It is hard for them to give their hundred percent during these days.  Even renowned organizations in Nepal that advertise ‘women-friendly workplaces’ do not provide basic support such as a resting place or access to sanitary pads. It’s a women’s issue and does not affect men so it’s challenging to convince the higher-ups in organizations (mostly men) to make the arrangements for women.

Men do not have to worry if their clothes get stained or if they leave some chairs marked. Women have to! Women have to worry about engorged breasts too if they can’t feed their newborns on time. While the Nepal government has introduced female-friendly workplaces by providing lactation rooms and day care centers, private organizations and non-government organizations are way behind.

Women’s different needs should neither be understood as luxury nor handicapped as Irani put it. It’s just that they are differently built and undergo difficult phases in different stages of their lives. Young girls start menstruating around the age of 10-12. A woman has to deal with this cycle and the discomfort that it brings 48 days or 1.5 months a year. Then during motherhood, a woman’s womb goes through expansion and contractions. The hormonal levels mess up and many face depression. Very important to note here is not everyone is lucky to be a mother as many pregnancies end in miscarriages. Special attention should be provided to those women too. Let us also not forget the special preference for a male child that can lead to sex-selective abortion; the mental trauma associated with these are huge. Women activists and feminists have strong reasons to advocate for women’s rights over their body.

Fortunately, my periods are kinder to me and I don’t go through a lot of pain but I have friends and family members who do. The troubles don’t end even when women begin to experience menopause. Since men do not go through these phases in life, women’s needs must be accommodated in workplaces, one of which can be a paid menstrual leave. If there is a question of productivity or effective performance, there are hundreds of ways to monitor that. 

Digital banking and cybersecurity landscape in Nepal

Digital banking can be defined as the availability of banking services through online platforms, encompassing both transactional and non-transactional services. This eliminates the need for customers to physically visit brick-and-mortar banks. Technological empowerment is a key driver behind the seamless delivery of these services. Customers commonly interact with banks through various digital channels, including websites, mobile apps, social media, mobile banking, email, Viber/Messenger and call centers.

Customers can avail themselves of banking services through these digital channels or by directly visiting branches or using ATMs/POS. The array of options includes online shopping, mobile banking, third-party wallets/websites, Visa cards, payment options, POS machines and ATMs. The surge in access to finance through digital channels, such as internet and mobile banking, has been accompanied by the adoption of payment methods like debit cards, mobile wallets and QR codes.

In Nepal, where over 72 percent of the population owns mobile phones, these devices have become instrumental in promoting financial inclusion. E-wallets have emerged as convenient tools for making cashless payments. The utilization of digital channels and payment methods brings numerous benefits to individuals, facilitating easier savings, money transfers and access to financial services. Businesses stand to have improved efficiency, reduced costs and a broader customer reach. The Covid-19 pandemic played a significant role in accelerating the adoption of digital banking platforms in Nepal. Many banks responded to the challenges resulting from the pandemic by launching online account opening and e-KYC filling services during the Covid-19 lockdown. Nepal’s e-payment landscape has witnessed a remarkable surge over the past four years. 

From 2020 to 2023, Nepal's e-payment landscape experienced an impressive surge in transaction volume, witnessing a remarkable growth of over 300 percent. However, the transaction amount exhibited a more nuanced pattern, initially soaring and later experiencing a slight dip in the last year. Despite this recent decline in value, the sheer volume of transactions underscores the rapid transition toward digital payments in Nepal. As of mid-October 2023, when examining the volume of e-payment transactions, the top three channels utilized are mobile banking, e-Wallets and debit cards. Collectively, these three channels account for 66 percent of the total number of transactions conducted.

Mobile banking, debit cards and e-wallets have reshaped Nepal's financial landscape. The widespread adoption of smartphones and the expansion of mobile networks have propelled the popularity of mobile banking, providing users with features such as fund transfers and bill payments. Debit cards offer a widely accepted cashless transaction method, particularly in urban areas. Simultaneously, e-wallets have gained traction due to their simplicity and versatility.

The significant surge in the frequency of digital commerce reflects the recent expansion of Nepal's digital payment system. While there is still a considerable journey ahead, the ongoing transformation of the Nepali payment system is due to the collective efforts of relevant stakeholders, including Nepal Rastra Bank and other government agencies, the private sector, and the ultimate consumer—the people.

Nepal has embraced the digital age wholeheartedly. While this digital evolution brings convenience and efficiency, it also introduces new threats, making the safeguarding of digital assets an integral aspect of national security. One common attack in the banking sector is phishing, a technique involving the deception of individuals into divulging sensitive information, such as usernames, passwords or credit card details by posing as a trustworthy entity. Phishing attacks can target both bank customers and employees, potentially leading to unauthorized access to accounts or sensitive banking systems. Malicious software, or malware, presents another threat by infecting computer systems to gain unauthorized access, steal information, or disrupt operations. Malwares can target online banking systems, compromising customer credentials and facilitating fraudulent transactions.

Denial-of-Service (DoS) attacks overwhelm a system, network, or website with traffic, causing it to slow down or become temporarily unavailable. Disruption of online banking services due to excessive traffic can result in financial losses and undermine customer confidence.

In a Man-in-the-Middle (MitM) attack, malicious actors intercept and potentially alter communication between two parties without their knowledge. This type of attack can lead to the capture of sensitive data during online transactions, including login credentials or financial details.

Criminals may also affix devices to Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) to capture card information and Personal Identification Numbers (PINs) from unsuspecting users, leading to unauthorized withdrawals and compromising customer accounts.

Ransomware poses yet another threat, encrypting a victim's data and demanding a ransom for its release.

Social engineering involves manipulating individuals to disclose confidential information through psychological tactics. These attacks can trick bank employees into providing access to credentials or sensitive information.

To mitigate such risks, banks should implement a comprehensive framework that identifies, assesses, prioritizes and monitors IT risks. This framework should align with regulatory requirements and industry best practices. Regular vulnerability assessments, coupled with a layered security approach involving firewalls, intrusion detection systems, access controls, encryption and data loss prevention solutions are essential components of a robust cybersecurity strategy.

Automation tools can play a crucial role in tasks such as patching, configuration management and incident response. Additionally, leveraging data analytics enables proactive detection and response to threats.

As Nepal continues its digital journey, the imperative for robust cybersecurity has become increasingly evident due to a growing reliance on digital services and communication, exposing the nation to various cybersecurity threats, ranging from ransomware to data breaches. Building a team of skilled cybersecurity professionals, keeping employees informed about recent threats in the international market, conducting periodic third-party IT security audits and ensuring compliance with industry-specific regulations like PCI-DSS and Basel III are crucial steps to mitigate IT risks. These regulations address data privacy, security and operational resilience, providing a comprehensive framework for enhancing cybersecurity in the financial sector.

The author is a member of Information Systems Audit and Control Association , USA