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The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a Chinese project introduced in 2013, has generated interest and concerns around the world. Through a network of highways, railroads, ports and other infrastructure, it seeks to link Asia, Africa, and Europe. One of the 149 nations that have ratified BRI is Nepal. Between China and India, Nepal has experienced its fair share of BRI-related advancements. This article investigates the contention that Nepal will fall into a debt trap as a result of BRI and analyzes the economic, geopolitical and developmental ramifications.

Understanding BRI: The BRI is a massive international infrastructure initiative that aims to link nations through a network of ports, highways, trains and other crucial infrastructure. It aspires to improve connectivity, trade and investment between participating countries. However, worries have been mounting in recipient nations over a possible debt burden resulting from these initiatives. In the case of Nepal, BRI’s effects are wide-ranging and intricate. Before signing any agreement related to BRI, Nepal must thoroughly weigh its advantages and hazards. 

The debt debate: According to critics, BRI projects, most of which come with Chinese loans attached, could result in a debt trap where recipient nations struggle to pay off their debts, which reduces their ability to make strategic decisions. Nepal may encounter this problem, given its constrained fiscal capability. Also, proponents highlight the possibilities for infrastructure development, economic growth and job creation that BRI projects may offer to Nepal.

There is a chance that Nepal may gain a lot from BRI. It might help in enhancing the nation's connectedness, boosting its economy and generating jobs. However, there are worries that Nepal could fall into a debt trap because of BRI as China is presumably ‘giving unfavorable loans to developing nations to seize their assets’. This claim has been made in relation to BRI and other Chinese investment initiatives in underdeveloped nations. The debt trap argument is supported by some evidence. For instance, several nations, which borrowed money from China, have had difficulty paying back their loans and have been compelled to cede control of critical resources like ports. To be clear, not all Chinese loans are predatory, and the debt trap argument is frequently exaggerated.

BRI engagements: Nepal has expressed interest in BRI and sees it as a chance to address its lack of infrastructure. The BRI’s proposed cross-border road, hydropower, and railway projects have the potential to improve Nepal’s connectivity and energy security. The financial viability, environmental effect, and transparency of these initiatives continue to be a source of concern.

Risk factors

Debt sustainability: China’s loans account for a sizable amount of Nepal’s external debt, raising concerns about the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio. Implementing projects successfully and achieving strong economic growth are essential for repaying these debts on time and avoiding a debt catastrophe. 

Geopolitical implications: Given its ties to both China and India, Nepal’s participation in BRI has geopolitical implications. Maintaining a balance between these two powerful neighbors is essential for the stability of Nepal. 

Project viability: The long-term profitability, potential for revenue generation and adherence to environmental and social criteria all play a role in how economically viable BRI projects are in Nepal.

Mitigation techniques: Nepal might use a number of techniques to avoid falling into a debt trap and profit from the BRI. 

Transparent project evaluation: Thorough cost-benefit evaluations and open tendering procedures can be used to find projects that are both fiscally and developmentally feasible for Nepal. 

Diversified partnerships: Including a variety of parties like global financial institutions helps lessen reliance on a single lender and advance monetary stability. Put an emphasis on local benefits: Projects that promote local employment, technology transfer and skill development should be given first priority to maximize the beneficial effects on Nepal’s economy.

There are opportunities and hazards involved in the complex discussion of whether BRI will trap Nepal in a cycle of debt. To maximize the advantages and reduce potential risks of BRI, Nepal’s rigorous evaluation of project viability, transparency decision-making, and proactive interaction with different partners will be essential. Nepal’s response to BRI projects will influence its economic and geopolitical trajectory for years to come as the initiative develops.

Yuval Noah Harari, in one of the episodes of his popular show, argues that mechanized Artificial Intelligence (AI) will ruin the operating system of human civilization. The AI era—1990s and after—is making the human mind wonder if Harari is indeed right. Harari labels AI as a mechanized matter and trailblazers need to hold on to it for some time.

As the world keeps its fingers ahead for globalization, another non-estimated phenomenon has stepped in the form of artificial intelligence. The cognition power of chips triples in a short span of time while human intelligence continues to wane. Even AI developers make a similar adjustment with this idea of diminishing logical capacity of themselves. Still the cognitive power of humans always stands superior to the cognition of mechanized AI, because of the infinite omniscience of human beings.

It was Alan Turing, who first portrayed the concept of AI with a special linkage to medical science in 1950. Soon after, John McCarthy tried to use AI in science and engineering. The Turing Test, named after Alan Turing, pits the machines against human intelligence, capability and cognition. In this phase of rational advancement and development, pioneers are taking this step for the expansion of AI. 

Looking back, all this was a far cry in the 1970s as the US Congress had imposed a restriction on the development and research of AI and more.

Human rationality

In an adjacent perspective, humans are born rational—they exhibit rationality in their real life and absurdity over synergistic machines. This fact seems to be realistic nowadays because rampant development of AI is causing massive unemployment. While human beings are trapped up by bounded rationality, human-developed tools like AI are free from it.

The tale of human rationality doesn’t end here, though. Eastern scriptures also seem to ‘bestow’ supernatural abilities on humans, endowing Ram—the protagonist in Ramayana—for example, with this special ability to get his arrow back to his quiver after striking a specific person. 

Media capabilities, synergistic work value, optimal internal and external resource utilization are the predominant and key aspects of modern AI. In general, developed AI always yields some sort of limitations. So, the pioneer humans need to be vigilant for alleviating the risks invited in the long run via AI-based robotics and more. 

Emergent perils

AI has some lethal perils and the whole of mankind may have to repent because of it in the long run. But defenestration is not the only way out. As per a BBC report, AI could replace the equivalent of 300m full-time jobs. 

It could replace a quarter of work tasks in the US and Europe but may also mean new jobs and a productivity boom.

These job losses are likely to raise depression and anxiety levels of peoples of developed and underdeveloped nations. Because of this replacement, the overall productivity is likely to rise by 7-8 percent in a synergistic manner. Another standing challenge is the gradual erosion of AI and lower wages. Decrease in the spending power of humans leads to higher levels of relative inflation. 

A rapid development of AI is likely to lead to an ensuing decline in human creativity. This may invite stagnation in any field requiring human expertise. 

Neuralink, a digital chip developed by Elon Musk, is expected to be of great help in the treatment of disabilities, including the restoration of eyesight. Fresh hopes have arisen after the conduct of a successful trial on monkeys. Delays in decision-making can also be minimized by using such AI tools. 

Speed accuracy and diligence are also elements of AI that can simultaneously execute millions and trillions of activities. Significant reduction in costs means huge economic relief for organizations and firms. The possibility of optimum use of resources is feasible when such AI models are used in defined working environments.

The author is a lecturer at Sindhuli Multiple Campus 

Nepali media is going through a difficult time. Traditional media or legacy media are struggling to continue their publication, while digital media is growing at an unprecedented level. For instance, Himal Khabarpatrika, Nepal’s renowned news magazine, shut down its print edition starting from June 2023. The Nepali print media industry is probably in the midst of the biggest crisis in its history. This is because: sources of revenues are drying up as both advertisers and audiences are shifting to digital platforms.

Despite many odds and difficulties, print media in Kathmandu is sustaining but the situation outside the Kathmandu valley is distressing. The circulation and sales of most newspapers has plummeted, hitting the revenue generation. Many are resorting to online and PDF versions, relying on advertisement and public welfare advertising payments provided by the government but that alone is not sufficient. Readers’ habit of visiting stationery shops for newspapers is dwindling, leading shopkeepers to stop selling papers. This has particularly affected small-scale, self-employed newspapers. Some publications are surviving through public welfare advertisements, while others have ceased altogether.

According to the classification results of the Press Council of Nepal for the years 2077 and 2078 BS, a total of 868 newspapers participated in the classification process. This included 190 daily newspapers and 509 weeklies, with the remainder comprising semi-weekly, fortnightly, and monthly publications. But most of these publications have a very low circulation and sales volume. The Council is in the final stages of classifying publications for the recent years as well, and the condition is anticipated to be far more grim.

As journalism has transitioned from print to the digital era, this shift has ushered in both trials and triumphs. The rise of online media platforms has been meteoric and the pervasive influence of social networks such as YouTube, Facebook, and X (formerly known as Twitter) has significantly impacted traditional journalism. Mainstream media outlets, including newspapers and TV, now find themselves needing to leverage these social networks to reach their audiences, underscoring the versatility and popularity of social media. With the decline of print media, a trend has emerged where publications are transitioning to online formats, or even becoming exclusively digital. This shift signifies that every media outlet and journalist must become technologically adept.

The proliferation of online and social media is not the only change; we have now entered the era of Artificial Intelligence (AI). From the moment we wake until we retire for the night, our lives are intertwined with AI, often without our conscious realization. To harness AI’s potential across various sectors, it is imperative for the government to implement a systematic plan. Any delay in digitizing data could result in Nepal falling behind in multiple fields. Just as in other industries, journalism has seen a widespread adoption of AI. Media outlets in developed countries have significantly increased their use of AI for tasks such as news collection, writing, analysis, and presentation. This trend underscores the growing importance and prevalence of AI in our daily lives.

Despite its pivotal role in driving political change, traditional media is grappling with unprecedented challenges. On one hand, there are issues with communication management, and on the other, questions about the credibility of journalism have surfaced in public discourse. Addressing these issues is crucial for integrating communication into the country’s development and prosperity. The task at hand is twofold: to leverage the evolving journalism as an opportunity, and to take effective measures to eliminate the problems and discrepancies that have arisen in this field. Cooperation and coordination with various agencies are needed to revive the journalism sector. There is a tendency to overlook the Code of Conduct in media promotion, leading to frequent violations. Newly established online platforms and social networks like YouTube have not paid sufficient attention to this aspect. In essence, it’s imperative to strike a balance between embracing technological advancements and upholding journalistic integrity.

The Press Council serves as a quasi-judicial body, adhering to prevailing values and existing laws in its administration of justice. It directs the correction of false and misleading content that has been broadcast /published. The Council effectively carries out regular monitoring, receives complaints related to the code of conduct, and takes necessary action.  The Council’s role is not limited to prosecuting media; it also exempts those who adhere to the journalistic Code of Conduct by meeting certain standards. It honors and rewards media outlets that practice objective, dignified, and reliable journalism. In 2079-80 BS, a total of 221 complaints were registered, out of which 152 were settled while 69 are still in the settlement process. Through the Council’s regular self-monitoring, 259 pieces of content were found to be in violation of the code of conduct. Out of them, 219 were settled. Three media outlets were blacklisted and 74 unregistered online websites were prosecuted in the same period.

The advancement and progress seen in electronic media have posed significant challenges to traditional media, while also presenting opportunities to make print media more appealing to readers. The future of online journalism appears bright, although necessary initiatives to strengthen and organize online media are yet to be fully realized. Distortions, particularly in the realm of new media and the so-called “YouTube journalism,” have escalated. Society has raised concerns about the misuse of press passes and press jackets. The unprofessional behavior exhibited by most YouTubers, who are not registered anywhere, has begun to affect not just Nepali journalism and the communication sector, but the society as a whole. Such anarchic activities have heightened the risk of social disintegration. 

The government has been repeatedly urged to implement more policy arrangements in this regard.

The Council meanwhile has amplified its monitoring, orientation, and code of conduct awareness campaigns to empower the media. It continues to support initiatives such as capacity-building training, procurement of press materials, establishment of communication centers, interest subsidies, and treatment concessions. It has also commenced the publication of the English Year Book with the aim of chronicling various events, challenges, problems, and solutions in Nepali journalism throughout the year.

In the digital age, the Press Council has devised various strategies to address challenges in journalism and has effectively executed its duties. It has primarily focused on two aspects: firstly, fostering technological proficiency among journalists and media outlets, and secondly, emphasizing media literacy and orientation to ensure reliable and sustainable journalism. The Council is actively seeking resources and undertaking substantial work in these areas. Additionally, it is striving to ensure full compliance with the Code of Conduct through effective monitoring and action. The Council has also written to the Government of Nepal proposing amendments to certain sections of the existing Council Act, which is currently under consideration. Furthermore, the Council has initiated studies and research with the assistance of media matter experts to address the problems. This year, an expert group was formed to monitor and enhance the Code of Conduct in journalism, and the group has since submitted its report.

The Council has introduced a one-day orientation class aimed at acquainting new online outlets with the Code of Conduct and fundamental values of journalism, which has proven effective. Similarly, mandatory orientation classes for media outlets and journalists found in violation of the code of conduct have yielded positive results. The practice of journalism through digital platforms has given rise to new topics that should be addressed by means of the Code of Conduct. To enhance journalism and broaden its reach, the Code of Conduct should clarify the responsibilities of relevant media in terms of content sharing on social sites. Additionally, third-party comments on media content should also fall within the purview of the Council’s Code of Conduct. There is a need to elucidate certain references in the Code of Conduct or guidelines when journalists produce, distribute, share, and comment on content on digital platforms.

The trend of producing, distributing, and sharing news content through YouTube and other social sites without media or journalist involvement is on the rise. This is an area that should be addressed by a code of conduct or guidelines. In this context, the expert group formed by the Council has provided various recommendations. In addition to plurality and diversity, attention should also be paid to new trends in journalism, newsroom structures, and workplace safety. A code of conduct is a self-regulatory system. The mass media itself should establish a self-regulation framework that prioritizes hearing complaints about content first.

As the prevalence of social media platforms such as Facebook, TikTok, X, and YouTube continues to rise, it becomes increasingly challenging to distinguish between news media and personal content, as well as between journalists and regular users. These platforms serve a dual purpose: they are used by individuals for personal expression, while also being leveraged by media outlets to disseminate their content. This has led to the emergence of various TV channels on YouTube, blurring the lines between personal networks and institutional media.

It is crucial to identify and categorize these platforms appropriately. YouTube channels operating as media outlets should be registered and organized under the Department of Information as well as the Press Council. This was a point of discussion at the World Press Council’s meeting in Nairobi, Kenya last year, where Nepal proposed a comprehensive code of conduct for media operating through social media. This proposal is currently under further study and discussion. 

Regardless of how these social networks are operated, it is essential for users to ensure their reliability and avoid conflicts. To achieve this, self-regulation must be implemented creatively. Journalism must evolve to cater to the preferences of new generations, leaving behind outdated practices. 

The crux of the matter lies in preserving journalism. This requires a clear definition and recognition of journalists and journalism. The Press Council, in collaboration with experts, is currently studying this aspect. The focus should then shift to enriching content to make it more insightful and exploratory. Upholding balanced journalism within the code of conduct will ensure the endurance of this field.

The author is Chairperson of the Press Council of Nepal

In contemporary geopolitics, international organizations play a crucial role in shaping global governance and power dynamics. China and the United States have reached an ideological stalemate as they are entrenched in shaping global governance through intergovernmental groupings by influencing the Global South. A contested US, an emerging China and a rising India have been openly trying to stabilize their relationship with renewed dialogues and regular diplomatic engagements, which have been at their lowest in the last 50 years with the risk of war. The Group of 20 (G20) and the Group of 77 (G77) are two prominent blocs within the international community. 

The triad diplomacy between China, Russia and North Korea is an endeavor of Russia to globalize the war in Ukraine. President Putin’s ambition and strategic misstep is costing the world colossal losses, together with Sino-American rivalry. Putin is rooting for an international system that is multipolar, upholds conservative values, is largely delinked with the US and gives space to Russia as a dominant player in a new era of global politics. In the Cold War, the inclination of the ‘Third World’ toward the Non-Aligned Movement was phenomenal. 

But in the era of Cold War 2.0, India’s influence in the Global South is more visible as the G20 summit, just concluded with North-South cooperation, has shown. Like India, China also has plans to lead the Global South for South-South cooperation. 

It is important to compare India’s role in the US-governed G20 with that of the China-led G77. Additionally, discussions on the concept of the ‘South bloc’ and its implications for geopolitics and great power rivalry are essential for international relations.

Geopolitical significance

The G20 comprises Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, United Kingdom, and the United States along with the European Union. This bloc, accounting for more than 80 percent of world GDP, 75 percent of global trade, and 60 percent of the global population, was established in 1999 as a platform for Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors to discuss international economic and financial issues and address major issues related to the global economy, such as international finance stability, climate mitigation and sustainable development. India and the US are key players in the G20, which comprises major economies of the world. Both countries possess significant geopolitical and economic clout. India represents a large emerging market with tremendous growth potential, whereas the US remains a global superpower with vast influence.

The Group of G77 (G77) was established in 1964 and originally consisted of 77 member-states, hence its name. 

Over the years, the membership has grown to include 134 developing countries from Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean. China’s membership in the G77 in 1994 grants it a platform to represent the interests and aspirations of developing nations to promote economic cooperation, coordinate positions on international issues and advocate for development needs of member-states.  As the world’s second-largest economy, China’s growing influence in G77 gives it a considerable geopolitical leverage.

Global politico-economic connection

The New International Economic Order (NIEO) approached around after the Intergovernmental Group of Twenty-Four on International Monetary Affairs and Development or the Group of 24 (G24) was recognised in 1971 as a chapter of the G77 to harmonize the opinions of developing countries on international monetary and development releases, which then envisaged North-South cooperation in 1973 in the Algiers Conference of non-aligned countries. The sixth Special Session of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), established in 1964 as an authorities’ body of the UN General Assembly in stimulating trade and development predominantly in developing countries or the Global South, adopted a program of action while the Paris talks (North-South Dialogue of 1977) negotiated North-South cooperation by setting up the Willy Brandt Commission with an understanding to revitalize the issues of international economic development emphasized by the World Bank Commission Report (1980) for North-South cooperation.

 In G20, both India and the US possess strong and diversified economies. With the nominal GDP of $25.46trn in 2022, the US has a higher GDP and greater economic influence globally. India’s GDP of $3.39trn in 2022-23 with economic growth rate and potential offer has vast opportunities for investment and development. The G20 is composed of most of the world’s largest economies’ finance ministries, including both industrialized and developing countries. It accounts for around 80 percent of the gross world product (GWP), 75 percent of international trade, two-thirds of the global population and 60 percent of the world’s land area.

G77 accounts for 80 percent of the world’s population. Within the grouping, China’s economic strength is emerging with the GDP of $18trn and its Belt and Road Initiative aims to channel financial aid, infrastructure projects, and investment among the G77 nations o 

This is Part I of a two-part series.  

The author is a Strategic Analyst, Major General (Retd) of the Nepali Army, and is associated with Rangsit University, Thailand