Submit your Article

Our political leaders, foreign policy and diplomacy baffled our regional super power and the second largest economy of the world China at Its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which was initiated by president Xi Jinping and has been adopted by dozens of countries of the world. Hardly a few countries have dared to come out of this Chinese venture. China was so much perplexed that the third Road and Belt Forum for International Corporation in its meeting held on 17-18 Oct 2023 included two small operational projects, Panda Pack Project and Amity Living Water Project, in the list of projects under BRI against nine projects selected during PM Oli’s last visit on account of the BRI implementation plan remained held up in Kathmandu. The then Chinese envoy’s claim that the construction of Pokhara International Airport was made under BRI as he knew well that the project was started before Nepal signed it, showed the Chinese desperation. This agony of China has now been removed by PM Oli’s four-day visit (Dec 2-5) to China. Its constant efforts since 2020 to get its BRI implementation plan accepted by Nepal has now succeeded.

The government has published the contents of the BRI Cooperation framework. Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) may now be called Belt and Road Initiative Cooperation (BRIC) in Nepal, as mode of payment will now be ‘technical and aid assistance against the usual mode of payment being loan to aid assistance, which was unfamiliar to the BRI world. Nepal has now expanded the payment modalities including technician and aid assistance disregarding its previous stand on ‘grant’ only. It seems that the PM has used his autotype as a PM ignoring the stand of the Nepali Congress. The contents of the plan have been very carefully drafted, as what China has given with one hand seems to have been taken away with another.

It is feared that Chinese currency might become a legal tender by allowing China to use it for the projects financed by it. We must be thankful to God that the Chinese language has not been accepted as a medium of teaching as yet at the university-level.  Positively, PM Oli’s visit to China shows that he is not only a shrewd politician but also a smart diplomat as he got the BTIC signed, as the Chinese BRI implantation idea has been replaced by another nomenclature by Nepal. Had it not been signed, his visit could have been taken as a failed one. He has apparently given all that he could have. It is more than what was given during president Xi’s last visit in 2029. 

Negatively, PM Oli could not give all that (loan modality), which  he wanted to offer to please the Chinese leadership. That is probably the reason why he got irritated when the question regarding ‘loan’ was raised during his press conference at the airport. The consensual draft prepared by the joint expert committee that included the terminology of ‘BRI Cooperation Framework’ replacing the Chinese BRI Implementation Plan’ was only half-heartedly supported by the PM. This was probably the reason why he excessively talked here about not taking loans from China for any projects, which was definitely not acceptable to China.

Since PM Oli had already made up his mind to visit China, he accepted the consensus draft to preserve the alliance and the Chinese negotiators might have accepted it to negotiate further while finalizing the draft in China during the visit. China had not taken the Nepali defiance of sending the revised/modified version of the implementation plan kindly. Probably sensing the dissatisfaction, he did not take up the demand of converting the loan taken for Pokhara airport into grant, the issue, which was already communicated by Finance Minister Bishnu Paudel to Yang Weiqun, vice-chair of the China International Development Cooperation Agency, on Aug 23 in Kathmandu. It seems he did not raise the issue to irritate further the Chinese establishment, which might have delayed the BRI cooperation work plan accepted by it, as was done by the then PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal who did not raise the issue of border disputes with Indian PM Modi during his visit to India. 

However, in domestic politics he has proved himself as an unchallenged leader who can do anything indirectly which he cannot do directly. He has again outwitted Sher Bahadur Deuba by doing what he wanted to do despite his assurance of not doing that. He has obliged Deuba by accepting the prime ministership overnight betraying the strategic political partner Dahal. Alternatively, Deuba knows his inability to oppose PM Oli at this juncture, probably on account of personal problems. 

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in Nepal are becoming a significant hazard in the Himalayas, driven by climate change and an increasing number of glacial lakes. Nepal's GLOF history is marked by several catastrophic events that have caused widespread devastation. The earliest recorded GLOF occurred about 450 years ago in Seti Khola but its details are not available.  A recent article by Byers, Chand, and their team also reconstructed the GLOF history in the Kanchenjunga region, where they found the occurrence of GLOF since 1921. They found at least seven GLOF events in that region with the help of remote sensing and field observation, which were not recorded before. Besides, ICIMOD has compiled 24 events out of which 14 occurred in Nepal and 10 in Tibet (China), causing extensive damage in Nepal. A notable GLOF event occurred in 1985 when Dig Tsho burst, leading to a destructive flood that destroyed infrastructure, including a hydropower plant under construction. Another study by Shrestha and her team recorded 54 events in Nepal. These datasets also indicated that several events occurred and are occurring in remote mountains that were not noticed due to their impact being insignificant and remote in nature. The Thame GLOF that occurred in Aug 16 this year is another noticeable event that caused damage to Thame village and the downstream ecosystem despite the small size of the breached glacial lake.

The underlying causes of GLOFs are tied to the unique geographical and climatic conditions of Nepal. The Himalayas are home to thousands of glaciers, which have formed numerous glacial lakes, particularly in the high-altitude regions. These lakes are formed when glaciers retreat, leaving behind large volumes of water contained by unstable moraines. As global temperatures rise, the rate of glacial melting increases, leading to the expansion of these lakes. The moraines that contain them are often weak and prone to collapse, especially under the pressure of additional water, seismic activity or other triggering factors like avalanches or landslides.

GLOFs have severe impacts on both the natural environment and human settlements. The floods can destroy agricultural land and hydropower, disrupt transportation networks and lead to loss of life and property. In addition to physical destruction, GLOFs also contribute to long-term environmental changes, such as the alteration of river courses and the degradation of ecosystems. The socio-economic impacts are profound, particularly in rural and remote areas where communities rely heavily on agriculture and where infrastructure is limited.

Over the decades, Nepal has tried to monitor and mitigate the risks associated with GLOFs. The establishment of early warning systems, such as the one implemented at Tsho Rolpa back in the 1990s, one of Nepal's largest glacial lakes located in Dolakha district in the Tamakoshi river basin, is a critical step in disaster risk reduction. Initially, an experimental siphon system was installed in 1995 to release the water and lower the lake volume, but it stopped working after 15 months. In 1997, the then government installed additional siphones and an early warning system. An automatic early warning system was installed in 1998 with a GLOF sensing system and a GLOF warning system along the Rolwaling and Tamakoshi river valleys. Engineering interventions, such as the lowering of lake levels by three meters through controlled drainage, have also been employed to reduce the risk of outbursts through the GLOF risk reduction project, with funding from the World Bank, the Netherlands International Development Agency and the government of Nepal. However, a lack of continuous funding, research and proper coordination among agencies, along with the period of Maoist insurgency, hindered the progress of mitigation work. Again, in 2015, the Early Warning System was revitalized with the installation of hydrological, precipitation and automatic weather stations at different locations in the downstream region.

The community-based Flood and Glacial Lake Outburst Risk Reduction Project, also known as the Imja Glacier Lowering Project in the Dudhkoshi basin, was implemented between 2013 and 2017 to mitigate the risks of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and to reduce human and material losses in Solukhumbu district and catastrophic flooding events in the Tarai and Churia range. The project was implemented by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) in partnership with different stakeholders and funded by Global Environment Facility-Least Developed Countries Fund (GEF-LDCF), UNDP. Imja was considered one of the most potentially dangerous glacial lakes for GLOF, which is rapidly increasing in size and volume due to glacial melt and the action of lake water that continuously triggers the calving of the glacier. Key activities of the project included the establishment of early warning systems, community training for disaster preparedness and the construction of protective infrastructure. The project also emphasized community participation, ensuring that local knowledge and needs shaped the initiatives. Through these efforts, the project successfully improved local capacities to respond to flood risks, ultimately contributing to enhanced safety and security for affected populations. By excavating a channel through the moraine that holds back the lake, the project successfully lowered the water level by 3.6 m, thereby enhancing drainage capacity and reducing the risk of catastrophic flooding downstream. This intervention significantly improved safety for local communities, alleviating fears and allowing residents to pursue their livelihoods with greater security. Additionally, the project facilitated environmental monitoring of glacial dynamics, contributing to a better understanding of the ongoing changes in the region due to climate change. It also promoted awareness of GLOF risks and enhanced community capacity for disaster preparedness through training programs focused on emergency response. Furthermore, the project emphasized the importance of sustainable practices, reinforcing the need for ongoing research and actions to manage the impacts of climate change on Nepal’s glaciers. Overall, the Imja Glacier Lowering Project stands as a proactive model for disaster risk reduction, highlighting the critical integration of scientific research, community engagement, and sustainable environmental management in safeguarding vulnerable populations in the Himalayas.

Additionally, the government, in collaboration with different organizations, has undertaken research and mapping projects to identify high-risk lakes and develop preparedness strategies. The government has identified four additional glacial lakes—Thulagi in Gandaki basin and Lower Barun, Lumding and Hongu in the Koshi basin—to implement the structural intervention along with the early warning system and capacity-building. The government has proposed about $36.1m to the Green Climate Fund and the initiative is expected to start in 1-2 years.

Despite these efforts, challenges remain in effectively managing the risks associated with GLOFs. The remote and inaccessible nature of many glacial lakes makes monitoring difficult, and the unpredictable nature of GLOFs complicates forecasting efforts. Furthermore, the rapid pace of climate change poses a growing threat, as the continued retreat of glaciers is likely to create new glacial lakes and increase the volume of existing ones. As temperatures continue to rise, the frequency and intensity of GLOFs are expected to increase. Not only large-sized glacial lakes but small lakes may also have significant impacts. Thousands of such lakes in the high mountains have significant implications not only for Nepal but also for the downstream countries in the Himalayan region that share river basins with Nepal. Collaborative regional efforts are essential to address these transboundary risks. Updating current inventory, categorization of potentially dangerous glacial lakes, and regular monitoring mechanisms should be established under the government in collaboration with research institutions. 

Last Sunday was SAARC Day, the day in which the promulgation of the SAARC Charter is celebrated. It was an important occasion to remind the citizens of South Asia that they should not lose sight of the high principles behind regional cooperation. The day was even more remarkable because it was the 40th anniversary of the SAARC Charter, an important milestone though unfortunately, only on paper. I am saying so because we all know that SAARC as a regional organization could be seen as, at the best, life support. 

The truth is that SAARC has been on life support for many years. We know that the main reason is the fact that India, the main and most powerful player in the region, does not attach importance to it. 

For Prime Minister Modi of India, the SAARC process is a hindrance, a burden especially because, as we all know, Pakistan is the second biggest nation in the bloc. While such a posture by New Delhi might offer the best way to meet India’s strategic goal both geopolitically and economically, the truth is that the whole region is missing out on a huge opportunity.  By now, there is a consolidated amount of evidence that regional cooperation is effective for those countries who invest in it. 

We do not need to make the case of the European Union that has reached the levels of cooperation and integration almost akin to a confederation of nations. Africa counts on several successful examples of regional integration. While ECOWAS, the regional cooperation architecture made up by western African nations, is not living its best times due to a series of coups in several of its members, there is the East Africa community and there is also the Southern Africa development community.  

No matter the challenges, both communities have made strides in terms of joint initiatives aimed at developing the respective member-states from a shared and common perspective. The picture in Central and South Americas is mixed and more complex but at the moment President Lula of Brazil is portraying himself as a big champion of regional cooperation. One of his most recent successes is the fact that MERCOSUR, a regional trade organization of five nations in South America, signed a groundbreaking trade agreement with the EU.

Closer to South Asia, we have the benchmark of regional cooperation, the ASEAN. As an observer of Asian affairs, I am not particularly fond of ASEAN due to the fact that its members lack ambition in terms of future vision and they tightly control the whole process. Yet, I do recognize not only the potential of ASEAN but also its success story in terms of becoming a platform in which the member-states shape their common interests and, together, reap some benefits from it. I wish only that SAARC could follow some of the steps of all these organizations starting from the perspective of regional cooperation. 

In a process in which nation states collaborate and partner with each other, cooperation among themselves is the first pillar of a much more ambitious political process, regional integration. This complex, daunting end goal where countries would cede their own sovereignty is something that only Europe has been trying to pursue. As we know it is a really difficult journey, one in which sovereign states are voluntarily pulling together bits of their decision-making that are normally decided in the national capitals. 

Coming back to SAARC, we need to be realistic on what it is possible to achieve. Setting aside the highly inspiring journey of integration being undertaken by the members of the EU, SAARC must focus on replicating the ASEAN model where the capitals are fully and only the ones in charge. On the occasion of the 40th anniversary of the SAARC Charter, all the heads of state and governments have issued congratulatory messages. It is a good thing, though symbolic. 

Actually, considering the current status of play in relation to the SAARC, I am even surprised that they actually reminded themselves of the existence of the regional organization. Now it is high time to do something to reactivate the SAARC but, with PM Modi disinterested and disengaged, how to start? First of all, SAARC is not only the Leaders’ Summit which, shamefully, the last one was held in Kathmandu 10 years ago, in Nov 2014. 

It is also an umbrella organizations with a myriad of bodies, institutes and entities that are still operating no matter the challenging environment and lack of support surrounding them. The SAARC Secretariat in Kathmandu should do a much better job at highlighting their work and their undertakings. Doing so would remind the citizens of the region that, no matter the ongoing impasse existing on the top of the SAARC, the institution is still active and works steadfastly toward a shared common future. Yet the secretariat also works under difficult circumstances and, objectively, we cannot expect much from it. 

That’s why there is an opening for leaders like Oli to reintroduce the whole concept of SAARC to the South Asian people. PM Oli, by partnering with like minded heads of state and government, should simply ignore India’s neglect toward SAARC and re-create a new narrative about the strategic importance of this organization. This could become a strategic interest for Nepal, a new cornerstone of its foreign policy. 

To start with, PM Oli should task Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba to take a tour of the South Asian capitals, starting from those keener to reactivate the SAARC process. New Delhi might get or might not get on board but, at this point, what India wants to do with SAARC is quite insignificant. We need a majority of nations from the region ready to promote the ideals of regional cooperation because doing so is in their best interests. PM Oli could, selectively, also embark on a tour of the region, pitching to his counterparts the importance of the SAARC.He could still, under the pretext of the 40th anniversary of the SAARC Charter, give a major speech on why Nepal and other neighboring nations should invest in a common regional architecture. 

The Secretary-General of SAARC, Md Golam Sarwar, in his congratulatory message for the same occasion, listed a series of priorities, a series of major reforms that SAARC should undertake in order to regain its legitimacy and relevance. PM Oli should embrace this cause and promote a wide debate within Nepal about ways to reactivate and reform the SAARC.

Considering that the HQ of the SAARC Secretariat is in Nepal, it should be obvious that Singhadurbar takes a special interest in the issue. PM Oli could also establish an advisory group made up of national experts, including members of the civil society and former diplomats, to chart out the best options for Nepal to become a true champion of regional cooperation not only for its own sake but for the prosperity of the whole region. If PM Oli decides it is worth investing his time and energy for the cause, helping resuscitate the SAARC could become one of his most enduring and important legacies.

When Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli was embarking on an official visit to China, skepticism was swirling in Nepal’s political circles. Particularly, Pushpa Kamal Dahal tried to label the visit as a ‘China card’, a characterization that was both insensitive and unjustified. Despite adversarial rhetoric and conspiracy theories, Oli’s visit proved to be a landmark, underlining his ability to advance Nepal’s national interests on the global stage.

This marked Oli’s third official visit to China as Prime Minister, and like his previous visits, it carried a profound significance. Oli’s diplomatic engagements with China have consistently focused on diversifying Nepal’s economic and development partnerships. Oli’s three visits to China as prime minister have been a grand success in protecting national interest.  

During his maiden visit to China in March 2016, Oli witnessed the signing of the Transport and Transit Agreement (TTA). This historic agreement sought to break Nepal’s dependence on India for trade and transit, symbolizing Nepal’s aspiration to evolve from a landlocked nation into a land-linked one. It laid the foundation for a more independent trade regime by granting Nepal access to Chinese seaports and overland transport routes. 

However, turning this vision into reality has proven to be a formidable task. Nepal faces significant infrastructural challenges and logistical hurdles that must be addressed to fully operationalize the agreement. Still, the signing of the pact marked a decisive step toward diversifying Nepal’s trade partners and reducing its economic vulnerability. We should understand each step of execution of every project begins with the signing of the document.  

Oli’s second visit to China in June 2018 added another layer of substance to Nepal-China relations, with the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to explore the feasibility of a trans-Himalayan railway linking Kerung in Tibet to Kathmandu. Though there have been other significant decisions, the feasibility study of railway is one that will have a momentous impact in connectivity if it materializes. 

While this ambitious project will take more than a decade to complete, it represents a transformative vision for Nepal’s connectivity. Feasibility studies have been conducted in two phases in this regard. This time too, both the governments have iterated cross-border railway. The railway is more than just an infrastructural project as it embodies the potential to establish Nepal as a critical transit hub between China and India. Because Raxaul-Kathmandu railway is also in the line sooner than northern railway.  By connecting the two Asian giants through Nepal, the project could redefine regional trade dynamics and offer Nepal unprecedented economic opportunities. 

Oli’s third visit to China in 2024 cemented his legacy as a leader committed to deepening bilateral ties. The highlight of the visit was the signing of an implementation plan for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), identifying 10 key projects for collaboration. This milestone marked a significant step forward in Nepal’s engagement with the BRI, which had been mired in delays and political debates since its signing in 2017. Under the projects of the BRI, both the sides have agreed ‘aid financing’ model that incorporates both the grant and concessional loan. But as the Prime Minister has clarified, Nepal will only take grants from China. Minister for Foreign Affairs Arzu Deuba Rana has shared the same statement. She further explained that there was nothing mentioned about the loans. 

By finalizing the implementation plan, Oli’s government demonstrated its ability to pilot the complexities of global geopolitics. The move cleared lingering uncertainties surrounding Nepal’s participation in the BRI and reaffirmed the country’s commitment to fostering mutually beneficial partnerships with China. However, it also underscored the need for Nepal to manage its foreign relations prudently, avoiding potential entanglements in geopolitical rivalries. Nepal has been able to convey a message to the global community that it will collaborate with all countries for development and prosperity without allowing foreign intervention in domestic affairs. 

Nepal’s foreign policy has often been characterized by a delicate balancing act between major global powers. This dynamic was evident in the interplay between the BRI and the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) compact with the United States. While the implementation of MCC has already begun, focusing on transmission lines and roads, the BRI has faced prolonged uncertainty.  Nepal will leave no stone unturned for receiving support of neighbors and great powers if they are genuinely offered.  The MCC, a $500m grant from the US supplemented by a $200m contribution from Nepal, has been a subject of intense political debate. The successful initiation of the BRI implementation plan during Oli’s visit signals Nepal’s intent to work with India, China, the US and other great powers on building infrastructure. Nepali leaders philosophically agreed that India and China are first priority and they should be openly called for supporting Nepal’s development. 

One of the most notable aspects of Oli’s recent visit was the unified stance adopted by Nepal’s major political parties on foreign policy matters. This consensus reflects a growing maturity among Nepali leaders in addressing international issues. By setting aside partisan differences, the political establishment demonstrated its commitment to prioritizing national interests in the realm of foreign policy. This collaborative approach has significant implications for Nepal’s diplomatic strategy. It enhances the country’s credibility as a stable partner and strengthens its bargaining position in negotiations with neighbors. Moreover, it underscores the importance of institutional continuity in foreign relations, ensuring that Nepal’s engagements with global partners are driven by long-term strategic considerations rather than short-term political calculations.

While Oli’s achievements in fostering Nepal-China relations are commendable, challenges remain. The successful implementation of agreements such as the Transport and Transit Agreement, the railway connectivity MoU and the BRI projects requires substantial financial resources, technical expertise and continued political will. Nepal must also address domestic constraints, including bureaucratic inefficiencies and infrastructural deficits, to fully capitalize on these initiatives. At the same time, opportunities are immense.  Oli has set the stage for a more confident and assertive Nepal. His efforts underscore the importance of strategic foresight and proactive diplomacy in a changing global order. After the China visit, the Prime Minister will also visit our southern neighbor. I believe, PM’s upcoming India visit would be equally fruitful.