Average performance was to be expected from an average leadership
Biswas Baral and Kamal Dev Bhattarai talk to political scientist Krishna Khanal about the two years of Oli government, its interna¬tional outlook, and its major achievements and failures.
How do you evaluate Oli government’s performance in the past two years?
The government performance is average. In Nepal’s modern political history, after the big majority government of BP Koirala in 1959, it was only the second time that a government was formed with such a conducive environment. The current government has a strong mandate with almost two-third support in parliament and it has popular support as well. There is virtually no opposition as well. In this situation, people expect more from the government.
For instance, the Oli government has come up with a new education policy but it is doubtful any education expert has gone through it. The policy is a mess but no one is challenging the policy, neither from inside the party nor from outside it. Previous governments had no such luxury.
The Oli government is undertaking only day-to-day tasks. But such things could also have been done by any of the previous, and far-weaker, governments. It is a tragedy that there is no substantial difference between previous short-lived governments and current stable one.
Why has such a strong government performed so poorly?
There is a lack of homework, and our state machinery is also weak. When Oli was electioneering, I had asked whether the big promises he was making could be honored by our weak state machinery. Why are our development projects so slow? There could be political and other vested interests and there also could be some financial issues. But the main thing is that we do not have the required manpower to run them. We have insufficient project management skills. We have the manpower who have studied management but project management is a different area altogether. There are other countries too that are both corrupt and that witness a high level of political instability, and yet they are making good progress on development projects. So we cannot entirely blame corruption and political instability for our project delays.
Development projects have certain characteristics. To achieve targets, people in leadership should enjoy a level of autonomy. We do not have the concept of autonomy here. Whoever becomes project head has to constantly appease their political masters. Look at the current Millennium Challenge Corporation compact debate. If you look at the MCC compact, there has been an attempt to assure the management’s autonomy in order to ensure the project’s timely completion. In our projects we do not have such autonomy, and hence they often fail.
The government, however, claims it is well on its way to achieving its goal of national prosperity?
The major slogan of the Oli government is ‘Prosperous Nepal, Happy Nepali’. But the key question is: what are the indices to measure prosperity? What does the government want to achieve in education, health, and other sectors? The figures included in budget speech are abstract. After the elections, the Nepal Communist Party had a month in which to internally prepare to make their electoral promise a reality. Even though the election results where yet to be declared, KP Sharma Oli was sure to be prime minister and he was in a position to lay out his government’s vision. Yet there was no such homework. This suggests the political leadership of Nepal is of average quality. And this is true right across party lines. It would not make a huge difference if Madhav Kumar Nepal or Prachanda took over PM’s chair tomorrow. They have already been tried and tested and found wanting. Our leadership has a weak vision and even weaker capacity to come up with policy actions to realize this vision. We cannot expect more than average work from an average leadership.
What is your take on the media’s rather harsh response to Oli government’s functioning?
During the 2017 elections, there was massive opinion in media in favor of the left alliance. But the media got progressively critical even before the federal government had completed a year. See the news reports and analysis covering the government’s two years, they are overwhelmingly critical. This clearly shows that there are weaknesses in government functioning. The government has also failed to take the public into confidence. This is dangerous. The government has become too defensive. It should convince people with its deeds, not its rhetoric.
But there must also be some positive things that have happened in the past two years.
Two years are not insufficient to evaluate a government but they are also not sufficient. We have to wait for some time yet before we reach a conclusion. I feel happy in the sense that we promulgated a new constitution by overcoming big challenges. The constitutional and federal processes have moved forward and the credit goes to political parties. There may be some problems as federalism is not something that can be implemented overnight. So, yes, you cannot also say that nothing good has happened in these two years.
Do you also think the conflict between the two NCP co-chairmen Oli and Prachanda hampers government functioning?
After the unification, Prachanda has been giving voice to some alternate views. Otherwise, there were no alternate voices to Oli in the former CPN-UML. These days, Prachanda is close to PM Oli. Prachanda is saying Oli will be at the government’s helm for five years. There are some internal conflicts but it is not at the level of paralyzing the government. For the first time, internal conflicts came to the surface during the selection of the speaker of the House of Representatives. The issue of MCC is yet to be settled. Otherwise, there is no internal ideological challenge to the government. For example, Ghanshyam Bhusal, a possible ideological challenger, has now become part of the government. There is a sense of insecurity on Prachanda’s part and he is impatient about his turn in power but he is not challenging the government yet.
How has Nepal’s international relations changed in the past two years?
We have seen a visible change in our geopolitics. The relation with China has moved ahead apace, more swiftly than we anticipated. At the same time, the level of dependence on China has also increased. We say the rail will come only if China builds it with its own money. The Chinese side has not assured us about the rail and has proposed better roads as an alternative. But we keep emphasizing railway. With China, we made a leap forward. But do we have enough capacity and preparations to sustain this new level of engagement? If we do not, it could be counterproductive. We are in a sensitive geopolitical location and it is not easy to take both our neighbors into confidence. We need their support but at the same time our options should remain open.
What about Nepal’s relations with other powers?
With other powers, our relations have shrunk. The activities of the European Union are slowing down. We are in increasing disputes with the United States. For instance, there was no need to link the Indo-Pacific Strategy and the MCC and blow up the issue.There is no possibility of our joining an American security alliance as non-alignment is a cornerstone of our foreign policy. Internationally, Nepal is increasingly thought of as close to China and as a communist country. There are five declared communist countries: Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, Cuba and China. Some now think of Nepal as the sixth one. The difference is that unlike in those countries, in Nepal the communist party has come through a democratic process.
In the past, international actors in Nepal were not in conflict. Nepal was a pleasant place for all powers but the situation is gradually changing. The Europeans are not happy though they have not said so directly. It also seems that we are trying to create a distance with the US, creating unnecessary disputes.
How do you evaluate the role of the opposition parties, particularly the Nepali Congress?
There is a huge majority government and the opposition does not get much space in such a setup. Despite this, the opposition is failing to carry out its expected role. Consider the prime minister’s recent address to the parliament. After the PM’s address, the leader of the main opposition should have spoken. Instead, some opposition lawmakers only asked innocuous questions over his address. In a parliamentary system, the opposition is an alternative to the government in two ways. First, in its role in the current parliament and then as the potential ruling party after the next election. The opposition should come up with alternative policies, programs and ideas, not just with facetious questions.
The government has made several attempts to curtail freedom of expression but with only limited success. Is it particularly difficult to curtail free speech in Nepal?
Despite the many criticisms of Nepali democracy, over the past 10-12 years it has succeeded in creating a vibrant civil society. People immediately take to the streets if the government tries to shrink civic space. There are also instances of street protests forcing the government to withdraw some of its plans. The people who have come out on the streets are not committed NCP voters. This is the biggest plus point of our democracy.
Separately, the government works should be analyzed from two angles. In line with the policy commitments it made in election time, the ruling party is free to bring policies and programs. The government can introduce new policies in education, health and other sectors, and which are liable to change in the coming days. The opposition can only protest but it cannot block those measures. But the key question is whether the Guthi Bill, the Information Technology bill, and the National Human Rights Commission bill are such policy commitments. They are not. They are constitutional commitments rather.
For example, the issue of human rights is related not just to a party or the government; it is a constitutional commitment. Press freedom is also a constitutional commitment. The government should realize that there is a difference between electoral commitments and constitutional commitments. The parliamentary majority-minority is not applicable to constitutional commitments and electoral mandate should not affect them
Quick questions with SAPANA ROKA
Q. Who is your favorite superhero, and why?
A. Has to be my mother who gave birth to me in her 40s. She nurtured and raised nine children in the face of many obstacles.
Q. Who do you admire the most?
A. Again, my mother.
Q. What is your favorite song?
A. Mostly depends on the mood but “Perfect” by Ed Sheeran and “In Love with Another Man” by Jazmine Sullivan are on my current playlist.
Q. Your greatest achievement?
A. The dazzling crown of “Miss Mongol”
Q. On a scale of 1-10, how good are you at keeping secrets?
A. One
Q. Favorite junk food?
A. Sekuwa
Q. If you could be a member of any reality show, which one would it be?
A. America’s Got Talent
Q. What is your favorite type of workout?
A. Trekking/Hiking
Q. Would you go to a movie alone?
A. Oh yes, in fact I’ve done it many times. The last one was “Saili.”
Quick questions with SWOYATNA YONJAN TAMANG
Q. What one thing would you definitely put in your bucket list?
A. Travel the world.
Q. If you could trade lives with someone for a day, who would it be and why?
A. Oprah Winfrey! I want to know how is it to live as the “Queen of All Media” and be the most influential woman in the world.
Q. If you could get anything, what would you get?
A. A store for my brand “Mero Nana Nepal ”.
Q. When I dance, I look like…?
A. The happiest person on earth.
Q. What’s the coolest thing you remember learning, and how did you learn it?
A. To be able to run and dance on heels! All the influences came from Beyoncé’s “Single Ladies”.
Q. What’s the first trend you remember loving?
A. Comeback of high-waisted jeans! Such a game changer.
Q. What job would you least want to have?
A. Anything 9-5.
Q. If you could only watch one movie for the rest of your life, what would it be, and why?
A. Beauty and the Beast. Because this movie teaches us that it’s okay to be different and that we should love someone for who they are, not for their appearance.
Q. If you had three songs to represent your life and personality, which ones would you select?
A. Beyoncé’s “Single Ladies”, Justin Bieber’s “Life is Worth Living”, and Wiz Khalifa’s “Work Hard Play Hard”.
National confidence vital in the handling of big powers
Mashfee Binte Shams, the Bangladeshi Ambassador to Nepal, is going back to her country after six years in Nepal. As her tenure draws to a close, Biswas Baral and Kamal Dev Bhattarai talk to her about her impressions of Nepal, SAARC, geopolitics and bilateral trade.
You have been in Nepal for a long time. What has struck you the most about the country?
I have been here during a very important time in Nepal’s political history. You adopted a new constitution, and you completed a long political transition from monarchy to democracy. Experiencing this transformation in Nepal has been interesting as an outsider. My second takeaway from Nepal is that it is a really resilient country. There was the earthquake and there were so many other upheavals but people are still so optimistic and hard-working.
Could you point to some notable commonalities between Nepal and Bangladesh?
We have a shared vision of prosperity. Over the past decade, Bangladesh has made great strides in development. We are today the 39th largest economy in the world, with a per capita income of almost $2,000. We completed in 2018 the required process of graduating from the ranks of the Least Developing Countries (LDC). Our social-economic transformation has been huge. But we can also identify with Nepal, whose social-economic challenges such as women empowerment, literacy, health care, and even drinking water are common with Bangladesh. Another new common challenge is climate change or global warming. Both countries are vulnerable to the effects of climate change even though neither is a contributor to global warming or greenhouse gas emissions.
What has been the progress on the much-touted power trading between Nepal and Bangladesh?
The power trade between Nepal and Bangladesh should have started much earlier. You have such a huge potential and we have a huge demand. Even today, Bangladesh produces over 21,000 MW as it is a fast-growing economy with over 8 percent annual growth. So we need a huge amount of electricity, around 34,000 MW by 2030. Right now, we produce energy from coal, thermal, gas and other sources. We want to shift from that to more renewal sources. Hydropower is the greenest and most renewal source and we are thus looking to import power from Nepal. In 2018, the two countries signed a Memorandum of Understanding on power trade. Under that MoU some mechanisms for regular consultations are in place. Hopefully, something can be worked out soon.
You say the power trading should have happened much earlier. What was the hindrance?
You were unprepared in many ways. Some of your power projects were just coming online. You had a power deficit. Even now, Nepal is importing power from India to meet your domestic demand. In the past, you were not in a position to export power to any country, including Bangladesh. From this monsoon, Nepal is going power surplus, which creates an ideal environment for us to import power from Nepal.
Regarding power cooperation, we need the consent of India via which the transmission lines will run. Has India been cooperative?
There has been a satisfactory process on this. All impediments have been removed. I think there are no legal barriers to take electricity from Nepal to Bangladesh via India. Of course, the details will have to be worked out. Similarly, on the GMR project of Upper Karnali, Bangladesh is in the final stage of purchasing power. That will build a foundation for us to import electricity from other projects in Nepal.
You mean there are no obstacles from the Indian side?
You must have seen all legal acts and regulations, and the problematic ones have been amended. Yes, I think all obstacles have now been removed.
Less than 30 km separates Nepal and Bangladesh. Yet the volume of trade between them has been dismal.
I have talked to everyone here. The chambers of commerce, and all the business people, right down to the grassroots. The problem is a lack of interest on both sides. Businesspeople in Bangladesh think of Nepal as a very small and hence an unprofitable export market. They think Nepali markets are dominated by Indian exports. So our business people were not interested. In the case of Nepali people, they think Bangladesh is a poor, starving, poverty-ridden country which does not have purchasing power. Many don’t realize that Bangladesh today is not what it was 40 years ago. As I mentioned earlier, our purchasing capacity is more than $2,000. We have a 50-million-strong middle class, which is huge. Only now have some Nepali businessmen started exporting to Bangladesh and they complain about tariff and non-tariff barriers, which I think is encouraging. This means they want to export. Given this, we can work together to remove some of the difficulties.
The President of Bangladesh visited Nepal last year. What role do these high-level visits have on enhancing bilateral ties?
Definitively, high-level political exchanges help create goodwill. We keep saying we are good friends and extremely close neighbors. Actually, after India and China, Bangladesh is your closet neighbor. If we do not have exchanges between the political leaders, we lose contact and we become bound by rules and regulations. Only when we have direct discussions can we talk to each other about our problems and issues, and resolve actual problems and clear misperceptions. You have a perception in Nepal Bangladesh is blocking Nepali products, whereas I want to categorically tell you that there is no blockage of Nepali exports as such. Whatever rules and regulations Nepali exporters have to follow also applies to other exporters to Bangladesh. As we are importing from many other countries, why wouldn’t we import from a close friend?
Where does Bangladesh stand on SAARC?
For regional cooperation to work, countries should be ready to sacrifice or be flexible in areas of possible cooperation. For instance, let’s forget SAARC. We decided that Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, and Nepal would get together and sign a motor vehicle agreement. That made sense as these four countries are physically close and have similar problems. It makes sense to cooperate to ensure more economic integration. But where is the BBIN motor vehicle agreement today? It was signed in June 2015 by four countries, but Bhutan could not ratify it. Even the three signatory countries Nepal, India, and Bangladesh should have moved ahead but we have been unable to do so. The eight-country SAARC is a lot more diverse. Without some flexibility from participating countries, no regional organization can function well.
Does Bangladesh support India’s desire to push BIMSTEC instead of SAARC?
The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation is not a replacement for SAARC as two regional bodies have different objectives and areas of operations. SAARC brings together the countries of the region that were closely integrated before the British came here and created artificial divisions. Before the British arrived, the region had many principalities and kingdoms but we were integrated and there was a lot of internal trade. So SAARC tries to revive that pre-British integration.
Whereas BIMSTEC is about promoting trade between the two economic regions of ASEAN and South Asia. So one cannot replace the other. Bangladesh always backs any sort of regional, sub-regional, or multilateral cooperation. It is our core foreign policy objective to have greater regional integration and promote cooperation as we believe no country can develop in isolation. The region must develop together. A situation of one country going very fast, another country lagging behind would lead to regional instability. Regional cooperation is hence the core foreign policy objective of Bangladesh. It could be achieved through SAARC, BBIN, BIMSTEC or any other organization.
Both Bangladesh and Nepal seem to be having a tough time balancing the interests of big powers like India, China, and the US. Can you tell us a bit about the Bangladeshi experience?
Bangladesh is very open and we do not see it as balancing one against another. We are open to cooperation with everybody. In 2016, we signed an agreement with China to bring in over $17 billion in investment. India is also a very important trading and investment partner for us. Likewise, the US is our biggest destination for readymade garments. Cooperation with one country does not mean you cannot cooperate with the other. When Bangladesh was born, we had nothing, everything was destroyed. We had no industries, no agriculture, no infrastructure. Becoming the 39th largest economy in the world was a massive challenge. By 2030, we will be the 26th largest economy. So we do not want to pick and choose.
Any advice for Nepal on how to maintain a successful balance?
I am not here to offer advice to Nepal. Talking about Bangladesh, we now have self-confidence which allows us to make these decisions more pragmatically. We are not influenced by what you call big powers. I think national confidence is very important. For example, in 2013 we planned a bridge across Padma River, in what would be one of the largest infrastructure projects in Bangladesh. The bridge would connect Dhaka to South-Eastern Bangladesh, a detached and deprived area. We went to the World Bank and the Islamic Development Bank and JICA for funding. The World Bank decided not to fund the $3 billion project. Finally, our prime minister said we do not want your money. She said we will do it with our own funds. Now Bangladesh is building this huge infrastructure on its own. That has given confidence. Now, there is national confidence that we can do big things on our own.
As you pointed out, Bangladesh is now growing at above 8 percent annually. Any secret sauce Nepal could also use?
I strongly believe that we all have our own paths to follow. What worked in Bangladesh may not work in Nepal. There is no way to say that we followed this and you should be doing that. In Bangladesh, we have highly motivated entrepreneurs, which helped with the establishment of a robust readymade garment sector. The government brought supportive rules and laws. The government also introduced special incentives in agriculture, as Bangladesh was food-deficient for a long time. Now we are self-sufficient in food. In fact, we are also exporting rice and the government is even giving subsidies in rice export