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How do you assess the role of Nepali Congress as the main opposition party?

Nepali Congress is the oldest party around. But more than that, it has contributed and sacrificed a lot to emancipate people from autocratic regimes and establish democracy. It has played a vital role in ensuring freedom of speech and expression and creating a pluralistic society. It led the democratic movement of 1950 that brought changes in the social, political and cultural spheres. Even today, Nepali people have great affection for the party.

Now we see some weaknesses in party leadership. It has failed to make some crucial decisions. If the Congress is weak now, it’s only because of the leadership, not its policy and programs, in which it is far ahead of others. Even the com­munist parties tread on its footsteps to build their rhetoric of social and political change. But having failed to act per public expectation, time has come for a revamp of party organization.

What in your view makes Sher Bahadur Deuba a weak leader?

Certainly, he has some weak­nesses. But we have to look back at the party’s recent history. Vet­eran leaders Girija Prasad Koirala, Ganesh Man Singh, and Krishna Prasad Bhattarai also had weak­nesses. Deuba is no exception. If the party operates in a democratic way and its organization is robust, the weakness of a single person doesn’t make much difference.

The new generation does not have to accept all decisions of party lead­ership. Deuba-led NC has failed to meet the expectations of both the people and the party members. Deuba has made several mistakes as the party leader. He never tried to correct those mistakes even when he got multiple chances to do so. That is why dissatisfaction has piled up against him. Deuba has pub­licly confessed to his mistakes on different occasions. But he keeps repeating them. Now he is not in a position to answer his critics. Party leaders and cadres loved him and gave him many opportunities. But he split the party. As president, he has failed to deliver.

But Deuba is still mighty power­ful in the party. Why?

The party president of Nepali Con­gress has traditionally been strong. Even if two-thirds central working committee members and district cadres stand against him, the party president will still be powerful. In the past, Krishna Prasad Bhattarai ran the party his own way. Members sat in protest against Girija Prasad Koirala in front of his residence, but he was still a powerful presi­dent. Cadres showed him black flags on several occasions. Compared to them, Deuba appears weak.

If he is weak, why has no seri­ous challenger emerged against Deuba?

Just listen to the speeches of oth­er top leaders. They talk about the past, they discuss the current sit­uation, and they criticize the gov­ernment. But they can’t come up with any plan for the future. They don’t have a vision to claim party leadership. There is no policy-re­lated discussion in the party. Even party cadres do nothing more than make rounds of top leaders’ homes hoping to bag lucrative appointments. Top leaders look at the fawning cad­res and think their public base is secure.

So isn’t there anyone to replace Deuba in the Nepali Congress?

One thing is sure: the NC cadres want to see leadership change. But change does not mean change of an individual. Changing certain leaders alone cannot bring fresh hope to the party. Similarly, change should not be based on age alone. There should be transformational changes in different areas. Even now, no member has opposed Deuba’s leadership in terms of policy and programs.

There are discussions only from the angle that if a certain person gets leadership, he can bring about dynamic changes. Till now, no one has officially announced their candidacy for party president. Instead of new faces, people expect a concrete vision for the party. Even the contenders to Deuba’s post do not have a new vision or policy to revamp the party. Cadres are looking for a new vision, not only a new face.

Why is there always a dispute over the holding of the NC General Convention?

The party’s General Conven­tion should be held within the stipulated timeframe. In the case of Nepali Congress, there is a tendency of deferring General Convention on various pretexts. The communist parties held their conventions even during the Panchayat era when they were outlawed.

But the NC did not hold a sin­gle convention at that time. Even after that, party president has always tried to avoid convention to stay in power. Such a tendency is evident in the NC sister organi­zations as well. The president wants to defer convention to strengthen his position. In case of crisis and difficult situations, the party statute allows exten­sion of the president’s term. But this liberal policy has often been misused.

What are the chances of anti-Deu­ba camps banding together to defeat him in the upcoming convention?

It would be too early to say any­thing about it. There is still a lot of time before the convention. Even the leaders loyal to Deuba may later abandon him. Considering the sen­timents of the cadres, Deuba’s aides may ask him not to run for party president again. His long-supporters may be telling him that time is not in his favor.

Who could be Deuba’s successor from his own camp?

Right now, I cannot say anything about any individual. It is also pos­sible that Deuba himself declares he would not run for presidency. The current camp may not remain intact. History shows that leaders tend to switch camps. For instance, after 1990, Deuba supported Girija Prasad Koirala for a long time. Deu­ba became home minister and ulti­mately prime minister with Koirala’s support. But Deuba later challenged Koirala for party presidency.

Should senior leaders like Deuba and Ram Chandra Poudel retire from active politics, as some have suggested, and clear the ground for new faces?

Many have suggested that they retire. I do not think that they should give up politics entirely. But it would be better if they confine themselves to the roles of party guardians. They can still have some in energizing party organizations. If they play such a role, it could bring some novelty to the party.

Is it possible that the upcoming convention will hand over lead­ership to the younger generation?

I do not think a new generation means just a new face or young age. New vision and direction are need­ed. Change only on the basis of age does not make much sense. Even Deuba’s election as party president was taken as a handover of party leadership to new generation and there was huge expectation from him. He became president suppos­edly representing the party’s young voice. Now, see, the new generation is totally disappointed by Deuba.

What explains the persistent rifts within the Nepali Congress since the 1990 political change?

Not only Nepali Congress, oth­er parties have a similar problem. Only the appearance of such rifts differs from party to party. Lack of discipline is a major weakness in the NC. 

Q.    What’s the favorite thing in your closet right now?
A.    A green semi woolen sweater that my grandfather passed on to me.

Q.    What are you holding on to that you need to let go of? 
A.    I hoard Apple products. I need to let go of 4 Macbooks and iPhones right now. (Wanted to say past relationships but again it’s too cliché.) 

Q.    What is your pet peeve?
A.    When someone I am talking to is too busy on their phones. It’s so annoying and irritating.

Q.    If you could have any three people (dead or alive) over for dinner, who would they be?
A.    Robin Williams, Arun Thapa, Kobe Bryant.

Q.    What’s on your playlist right now?
A.    Solomun / Lane 8 / Dennis Lloyd

Q.    If you had to work but didn’t need the money, what would you choose to do?
A.    Cut coconuts off trees somewhere in the Caribbean

Q.    Iphone or Android?
A.    Android for now

Q.    Is there an app that you hate but use anyways?
A.    Smoke Free (I haven’t smoked for over two years)

Q.    What is the stupidest thing you’ve done because someone dared you to?
A.    Ate a live, walking cockroach in high school over a bet.

Q.    You get an elephant. You can’t get rid of it. What would you do with it?
A.    Invite kids from all over the country to come play with it.

Q.    Summer or winter?
A.    Summer please! I catch cold and feelings quickly.

Q.    If you had to buy something for the person you love, what would it be?
A.    Fooooooodddd. I’ll give something I want in return gift.

Q.    What has been the funniest prank played on you? 
A.    Maybe not the funniest but recently in an event I announced bingo tickets were available. One drunk uncle said “the ticket is worth Rs 50.” I should’ve known he is “that drunk uncle at the wedding”. He pulled a good one, I must say.

Q.    If you could dis-invent one thing? 
A.    Hair straighteners! I want people to rock their natural hair—curls, wavy, bushy whatever.

Q.    What makes someone a hero?
A.    A heart that isn’t jealous. Someone who can be happy at others’ success is 
my hero.

Q.    What are the qualities you enjoy in a friend?
A.    Humor for sure. I want my friend to insult me back when I insult them. We laugh together that way. A friend that buys food. My best friend does somersaults and backflips when I am upset. So may be a little more drama, pretty please.

Q.    In what situation or place would you feel the most out of place in?
A.    After I started my professional life, I have become a potato. I go with everything.
Q.    What would you stockpile if you found out they weren’t going to sell it anymore?
A.    For now sanitizers and masks.

Q.    Shake hands or Namaste?
A.    Kisses and hugs? I am a chuppa kinda person.

Kamal Dev Bhattarai and Arun Poudel talk to economist Posh Raj Pandey, who is also the chairman of South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SAWTEE), about the impact of the global novel coronavirus outbreak on Nepal’s economy, with the focus on its impact on remittances.

How do you assess the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the country’s economy?

Let’s first discuss the structure of our economy. The contribution of service sector in it is very high, which is mainly about people-to-people contact and movement. So, we see a higher impact of coronavirus in this sector. In manufacturing, there is comparably lesser impact but if there is a break in value-chains, it will also be affected. In our economy, the contribution of agriculture is about 27-28 percent, whereas the contribution of social and government service stands at around 4.5 percent. This means a third of the economy is insulated and would not be directly hit by coronavirus. There will be impact only in the remaining two-thirds.

How will the two-thirds of the economy that is vulnerable to coronavirus be affected?

There can be both direct and indirect, as well as positive and negative, impacts. The worrying factor is that the value-chain of the industrial sector is breaking down as we import intermediate and raw materials from other countries. This could result in less production and affect the country’s overall export. Similarly, the high flow of remittances boosts retail and wholesale trades. If remittances die down, health and education sectors could also be affected.

Next, the coronavirus scare is affecting our tourism. Basically, there are two components in tourism: hotels and restaurants, and travel and transport. These sectors are directly affected because movement of people is restricted. Similarly, there will be a direct impact in the construction sector. Big government projects will be hit.

What kind of positive economic impacts could the coronavirus pandemic have?

Due to the coronavirus outbreak, global oil price has come down. Despite some fluctuations, the price is on a downward trend. It would benefit our economy as we import a lot of oil. Similarly, concentration of our raw material resources in China was never a good thing. The world might now think of diversifying on raw materials and intermediate or final products. If the private sector and the government can come up with a calculated strategy, it also gives us an opportunity. On the negative site, as I said earlier, there is going to be a huge impact on remittance sector.

Remittances are considered the backbone of the Nepali economy. Will they be severely reduced?

The infection is spreading fast in Gulf countries and Malaysia, Nepal’s major labor destinations. Some countries have already blocked the entry of Nepali workers. Even India has said it will require Nepali travelers to be tested at the airport. This will restrict the flow of migrant workers as these countries are providing jobs to our unemployed people. Second, the remittances that Nepali workers send home have helped generate income and boost the economy. Remittances constitute one fourth of the country’s GDP, and if there are any ups and downs, our economy will be directly affected. Additionally, if economic activities slow down in those labor destination countries, they will ask for fewer workers. It will not only impact new recruitments, but also displace current workers. Can we generate employment at home for all those people?

Is there a way out of this potential economic crisis?

We are more or less without options. We have long been saying that sending workers abroad is only a transitional measure. And yet the government has been promoting it. We will not be able to manage the workforce if our workers return from those countries. We will be option-less because we cannot generate enough jobs for them at home. But even if we create some jobs, we cannot give the returning workers the wages they expect.

What could be the political and social fallouts of that?

Obviously, there would be big social and political impacts. It could result in political instability. There are also chances of social unrest and increase of crimes. It could also affect our social stability.

Will the national economy collapse if remittances stop coming, as some fear?

We have adopted flawed parameters of economic success. For example, the success of the finance minister is measured on the basis of the revenue and foreign aid he helps generate. It should rather be measured on how the money is spent. The finance minister takes pride in the revenue generated
but nobody cares where the revenue comes from. In the past decade, 47 to 58 percent of the revenue was collected from customs, which is import-based. Remittance money created demand here but we do not have enough supply. So the country had to import more, which in turn raised more revenue. So, more the remittances, more the imports and greater the revenue.

If the finance minister’s success were measured in terms of revenue from excise duty, which means more tax on goods produced at home, it would be better. Right now, the finance minister is complacent. The government thinks it need not work with the private sector. Even the Nepal Rastra Bank governor is happy because foreign reserves are in a healthy state due to remittances. Nobody cares about the huge import-export gap. Earlier, there was equilibrium between the country’s trade balance and inflow of remittances. So in a way the trade imbalance was compensated by remittances. In the past 3-4 years, the situation has worsened. Remittances have failed to make up for the deficit.

Does it mean remittances are decreasing or is the trade imbalance swelling?

The size of trade deficit has increased. Over the years, the gap between trade imbalance and remittances has continued to increase. Even in current circumstances, pressure is gradually building and remittances are not going to sustain the demand for foreign exchange. So, if remittances go down, we have to take foreign aid even to buy medicine, gasoline and food grains. Our economy will be captive to international financial institutions.

Compared to other countries in the region how dependent are we on remittances?

Obviously, India and Bangladesh get far more remittances than us. But in relation to the share of remittance to the country’s economy, we stand in the top three position globally. Except for some central Asian countries that send migrant workers to Russia, Nepal has the highest dependency on remittances. So we are in a very vulnerable situation. Regionally, we are the most vulnerable. When we talk about India, lower remittances will only have a local and limited impact. For example, it could affect the state of Kerela, not Delhi or other states. In our case, the whole economy will be affected. In Bangladesh, remittance contributes to just 5-6 percent to the national economy; in our case it was 25 percent last year.

What happens if we cannot find an alternative to remittance?

If we do not seek options immediately, our economy could crumble anytime.