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Neeraj Singh Manhas is the Director of Research in the Indo-Pacific Consortium at Raisina House, New Delhi. He has authored three books and has diverse research interests covering Sino-Indian border issues; China in the Indian Ocean; India-China foreign policy; water security; defense and Indo-Pacific studies. His recently-edited book is “Analyzing the Current Afghan Context” (Routledge 2022). His works have appeared in the Institute for Security & Development Policy (ISDP), Observer Research Foundation (ORF), Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, The Hindu Business Line, The Pioneer, Financial Express, and other online platforms. ApEx spoke with him about the risk of Nepal slipping into the gray list of FATF. Different sources are claiming that Nepal will again be put into the FATF gray list. What are the chances?   I think the chances are 90 percent; there is a 10 percent chance that it can be averted, if any technical issue comes up with FATF. APG officials have said they would only incorporate progress made through December 16, 2022 in their mutual evaluation report, as Nepal (the country was on the greylist in 2008-2014) is once again placed in a vulnerable position and is at the risk of being greylisted. This will be quite harmful for Nepal because it has already had to deal with numerous other significant challenges. In the past, several countries’ economies have suffered due to FATF-imposed restrictions. Do you think it will have the same impact on Nepal?  In June 2018, Pakistan was placed on a watch list. Numerous sources have proved that Pakistan's economy suffered losses of over $30bn as a result of FATF’s restrictions. Pakistan, which has a friendly relationship with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, benefited from the latter’s bailout packages. The economic position of Nepal is dwindling, and its current status does not appear encouraging even as it seeks international investments. The lives of ordinary people have been affected, and the economy has been severely damaged by an expanding trade imbalance, a rapidly diminishing foreign exchange reserve, and surging inflation. Indeed, Nepal may slip into a serious financial crisis like Pakistan and Sri Lanka if serious action is not taken.  India has a potential role in helping Nepal frame new laws for money-laundering syndicates during 2008-2014, when it was on the FATF gray list. Do you think India will save Nepal from the FATF radar? India has always believed in “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam” (the world is one family). Former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee once stated: “We can change friends but not our neighbors.” India’s position with its neighboring states has always been humble and helpful. Recently, when Sri Lanka was going through a financial crisis, India provided foreign aid multiple times. India helped Nepal frame new laws for money-laundering from 2008 to 2014, things are a bit more difficult for India this time around. Members of the 39-strong FATF have held discussions, with a majority stating that they may go against Nepal in the upcoming FATF meeting, making things pretty difficult for India. Let’s see what happens until then. China has heavily invested in Nepal in its infrastructure, railways, and FDI; the current Prime Minister also shares close ties with Xi Jinping. Do you think China will have a significant role?  China has always helped Nepal fill its infrastructure gaps. As part of China-Nepal BRI Cooperation, both countries signed several MoUs, including Investment and Cooperation on Production Capacity, Human Resource Development Cooperation, and Economic and Technical Cooperation. PM Prachanda is on good terms with Xi Jinping, and everyone is hoping that China will help Nepal in this case. However, China is going through a massive upheaval, what with the Covid-19 pandemic, and mass resentment against their government. It will be interesting to see the Chinese moves vis-a-vis the FATF matter involving Nepal. What significant challenges does Nepal face as it tries to return to track? There are myriad problems facing Nepal, including an economic crisis, lack of better infrastructure, political instability, corruption, brain drain, unemployment, border security, and underutilization of resources. If Nepal slips into the FATF gray list, its challenges will only increase. However, Nepal has identified 15 laws that must be amended to make them compatible with the FATF anti-money laundering case. Some of the significant laws that need amendment are the Assets Laundering Prevention Act-2008, Land Revenue Act-1978, Tourism Act-1978, Securities Act-2007, Human Trafficking and Transportation (Control) Act-2008, Confiscation of Criminal Proceeds Act-2014, Mutual Legal Assistance Act-2014, Organized Crimes Prevention Act-2014, Criminal (Code) Act-2017 and Cooperative Act-2017. In February, when the APG is expected to produce its preliminary report, it will give its opinion. It will prepare its final report, which will determine whether Nepal will be under the International Cooperation Review Group (ICRG) monitoring of the FATF.

The Tharu Commission is provided for in Part 27, Article 263 of the Constitution of Nepal. The Tharu Commission Act, 2017 has been enacted by the parliament incorporating topics like the qualifications of the chairperson and members of the Tharu Commission, status of vacancies, remuneration and service conditions, duties and rights. Bishnu Prasad Chaudhary was nominated the first chairperson of Tharu Commission four years ago. Pratik Ghimire of ApEx caught up with Chaudhary to know about the progress that the commission has made so far.

What are the major working areas of the Tharu Commission?

Our major work is to conduct research on the Tharu community, culture, food, language and all Tharu identity-based issues. We also research problems facing the Tharu community like health, employment and education. The commission regularly conducts awareness programs, skill- and education-based training and workshops for the welfare of the community. Moreover, we study plans and policies of the government and offer suggestions.

Does the government implement your recommendations?

I must say no. The government, to date, has not endorsed our suggestions. It has a major role to make our work effective, meaning that without coordination from the federal government, we can’t even be a proper watchdog. Everything we do, or we require (human resources and budget) to run the office is associated with the government. 

For research activities, we need a huge budget, which we don’t have. For example, data are the foremost requirement for any research but due to the lack of budget, we can’t collect data on our own, so we have to rely on secondary sources. These sources are neither reliable nor accessible. We regularly recommend the government on law and policy making, but they don’t listen. This doesn’t mean these commissions should get executive powers. The duties, responsibilities and rights that the constitution provides us are enough. The problems lie with the government. It must heed our suggestions, and provide us human resources and the budget.

How is the coordination of the commission with three tiers of the government?

Though we work with all three tiers of the government, we are in touch mainly with local and federal governments. For training and workshops, we coordinate with respective local governments while for policy-making, we consult with the federal government.  As we have our main office in Kathmandu and no liaison office outside, it's quite difficult to coordinate, both with the government and the people. 

These commissions don’t have executive powers. In light of ongoing debates about their relevance, do we really need them?

Without these commissions, there will be an identity crisis. In the public service field, Tharu communities were included in the Madhesi cluster after the 2007 revolution. At that time, the Tharu communities had no idea about this. After coming to know about the matter, they protested which resulted in the Tharu revolution—and establishment of the Tharu Commission. The commission has outlined identity-based problems and often warned the government and concerned bodies about the consequences of ignoring them.

Thanks to this, the Tharu cluster is determined for political representation in the Election Act. The Civil Service Act has not incorporated these issues. The Madhesi Commission and the Madhesi leaders have always wanted Tharu and Muslim communities included in their cluster, but we stand firm against it. We have our own history, culture and identity. We won’t let this die down.

How often do you coordinate with other commissions?

We have met with the Madhesi Commission a couple of times for problem identification and resolution of cluster issues. But they don’t want to coordinate with us; they want us in their cluster instead. It appears like they don’t respect our identity. But they should be clear that we are not the Madhesis.

Akshay Golyan is the Managing Director of Golyan Group, one of the leading business houses in Nepal. As a third-generation member of the Golyan family, Akshay has been leading the group's business verticals for the past few years. ApEx caught up with Akshay to talk about the Golyan Group’s business plans. Excerpts: As someone with an academic degree from abroad, how applicable do you find your education to be when it comes to utilizing it for your group? I think education gives you the necessary knowledge to understand fundamental issues and use them in business according to the context of the country. Getting a good education is very important to holistically understand why things happen and how you can tackle the issues. My educational background ranges from finance, marketing, management, and accounting to business development. For me, this is relevant in the context of Nepal. The academic knowledge in these areas has helped me form a solid backbone with respect to business. What differs in Nepal is the way of working which differs from other countries. But the things I learned during my MBA program have provided me with the fundamental knowledge to manage the business. You represent the new generation in the Golyan Group. How have you planned the group's investment? As a group, we focus on four key verticals of Manufacturing, Hotels & Real Estate, Renewable Energy (hydropower and solar power) and Agriculture. Within these four broad sectors, we have certain plans to add new businesses. For example, we are studying an expansion project in our Reliance Spinning Mills. We are also working on establishing two new hotels in Nepal. And, there is also homework going on real estate and hydropower projects. We have tried to focus on these four sectors that are relevant to Nepal in terms of business and are also important for the country's growth. If we look at each sector, manufacturing is export-oriented. Hydropower is going to be the backbone of Nepal and there is the possibility that we will be the net exporter of electricity in the next 2-3 years. The problem is that our policies are not conducive to the things that are going to improve Nepal. Industries in the country are still struggling to get a reliable power supply. There are still 8–9 hours of power cuts in large industries including ours. While we talk about power exports to India highly, no one cares about the power cuts that domestic industries are currently facing. The agriculture sector has been the priority sector for the Golyan Group in recent years. What led the group to invest in this sector?  Though Golyan Agro is registered as a profit-oriented company, we don't trade in large margins. We work on zero to close to zero margins, maybe 2 or 3 percent. Golyan Agro aims to invest in agriculture for the future and to partner with local farmers, local products, and local entrepreneurs to promote Nepali products. Food items or non-food items like tissue paper and sanitizers, everything is made in Nepal. My family's way of thinking is a little different than other families. We like to do things differently. We like to do things that can add value to the people around us. We saw a gap in terms of our food items which have always been imported and way back during the import restriction, there was a shortage of necessities like gas, petrol, and food. Then we decided that we need to contribute towards the growth of Nepali products, produce and agriculture. Your group has also made sizable investments in the energy sector. What are your plans for the future in this sector?  Currently, we have planned to produce around 800 MW from hydro and solar power projects. 800 MW of electricity is a very big portfolio. The only way we can execute this is if the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) signs the power purchase agreement (PPA). Currently, we have signed PPAs with NEA for around 200 MW. And, these projects are either in the construction stage or already started generating power. But, there are other projects in our portfolio with a total capacity of 600 MW; the construction of these projects is yet to be started. Our group has already invested close to Rs 1 billion in these projects without signing the PPAs. Nepal needs more electricity for its industries. Therefore, signing the PPA by NEA is crucial for us. Out of these four verticals, which one do you find most challenging?  All of them have a different set of challenges. Renewable energy is facing challenges due to the changes in the policies of the government. As for the manufacturing sector, the challenge lies in the operations of companies. The agriculture sector has challenges, both in terms of policies and operations. The hotel sector is slowly recovering from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the challenge here is to attract more tourists to the country. As a young entrepreneur, what are your advices for startups and new entrepreneurs?  Whenever you want to start a business, you should first decide to do something that you enjoy. No matter how profitable it looks on paper, you should first be interested in it. Then you should look if it's reliable and observe others what they have done and how they are doing it. A little bit of homework and hard work comes a long way. What are the Roots of Nepal and the Feri Bidesh campaigns of the Golyan Group? The Roots of Nepal is a basic idea of what we have been doing for ages. From our history, we have always been told that the Golyan Group is working on energy itself, tourism, hospitality, and agriculture as the base and ultimately the roots of Nepal in the future. So currently, we are trying to focus more on those aspects which is the idea of the Roots of Nepal campaign. Feri Bidesh is just at the initial phase of the Golyan Group where we are trying to focus on the youths of Nepal. Brain drain has been a major issue in Nepal for a long time and we want to share this message with the youth that there are opportunities within the country and new opportunities are also coming.

The Pokahara air crash has raised questions about aviation safety. In this context, Sunita Karki of Annapurna Post spoke with Raj Kumar Chhetri, former Director General of the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal  (CAAN). Can we term Nepali skies unsafe? I would not consider the Nepali skies unsafe. Despite the unfortunate incident that happened on Sunday, it is important to note that we operate around 270-275 flights from Kathmandu every day. In my 33-year experience, I have not seen other countries with a difficult geographical situation like ours. A plane crashed eight months ago too. But that was due to inclement weather. In a mountainous country with weather conditions changing every 20 nautical miles, remote airfields and such, accidents may be more frequent than in other countries. Actually, accidents have gone down in comparison to the past. What do you think are the causes? In the past, a majority of air crashes in Nepal were caused by weather conditions. The country's difficult geography (with high hills and all) as well as some human errors and technical issues are also behind these incidents. There were some weaknesses in our systems earlier. The regulatory body, Civil Aviation Authority Nepal (CAAN), has been working to improve safety and address these issues. Additionally, airline companies are also adhering to safety requirements because a plane crash not only results in loss of life but also causes significant financial losses for the company. International organizations such as the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the European Union also conduct safety checks. Furthermore, airlines themselves conduct safety audits regularly. Sometimes unfortunate events happen despite measures to improve air safety by reducing risks.  Are recommendations of air crash probe committees implemented? In the past, there were issues with implementation of recommendations from probe committees formed after air crashes. The reports would gather dust, which is not the case today. The government, the Ministry of Tourism and the Civil Aviation Authority Nepal (CAAN) are aware of the importance of these probe committees and their findings. Unlike in the past, only experts are included in the committees these days. Concerned authorities, airline companies and international bodies tasked with addressing non-compliance take the suggestions coming from these committees seriously. Nonetheless, it would be more effective to have a permanent mechanism for investigating air crashes instead of forming probe teams after every incident. Such a body should have the authority to conduct follow-ups on the implementation of recommendations and report instances of non-compliance. This would ensure a more comprehensive and consistent approach to improving safety and would make aviation safer in the long run. Do probe panels blaming human error for air accidents mean that Nepali pilots are not skilled? In the past, human error was often cited as the cause of air accidents because it was easier to blame someone who is not alive. However, this is no longer the case. Nepali pilots are flying in a challenging topography and they are highly skilled and capable, as capable as pilots in any other country. What policies and rules are needed to improve flight safety in Nepal? One key step that should be taken to improve flight safety in Nepal is to unbundle the CAAN into a regulatory agency and a service agency. This would ensure that the regulatory and service functions are separate and that there is no conflict of interest. Additionally, there should be a provision that prohibits inter-agency transfers as they can hinder the performance of employees. People should be appointed on the basis of their skills and past performance. Furthermore, the government should provide all necessary resources and equipment to airports to improve their safety. Airports not handling flights should be closed. https://www.annapurnapost.com/news/our-skies-are-not-safe-223155