Good omen

 If there is one thing China looks for while dealing with foreign countries, it is stability. In the under­standing of the Chinese leadership, countries, including China, can progress only if it has a stable polity. This can in turn be guaranteed only by strong national leaders, which partly explains President Xi Jin­ping’s centralization of powers in China; and it explains why the Chinese are so optimistic about the future of Nepal-China relations. President Xi and the Chinese leadership are ready to do business with perhaps the strongest prime minister in Nepal’s democratic history, who promises five years of uninterrupted reign.

 

Chinese scholars and diplomats alike were frustrat­ed by the constantly changing cast of characters in Singadurbar, with the Nepali government on average changing every nine months. Earlier, China used to see the monarchy as the guarantor of stability, but after its removal, it had been on a lookout for another depend­able ally in Nepal. And it has found one in KP Sharma Oli. This is what makes us optimistic that the agree­ments that PM Oli has signed with China, both during his first state visit in 2016 and during his second one in 2018, will be implemented.

 

Most significantly, President Xi expressed his confi­dence that the “rail network that runs through Shang­hai, Lhasa and Shigatse will reach Kathmandu, helping Nepal’s quest for development and prosperity.” Never before had the Chinese leadership expressed such faith in the cross-border rail network. Other bilateral agreements are aimed at increasing people-to-people and trade connectivity and helping the Nepali govern­ment achieve its dream of ‘prosperous Nepal, happy Nepalis’. There is one on development of cross-border power transmission lines, which, if realized, would reduce Nepal’s dependence on India both for the development and market-access for its electricity. An oversight mechanism has been established to ensure the Chinese projects in Nepal are completed on time.

 

These are all vital developments. Even as he increas­es his outreach to China, PM Oli has also been able to take his Indian counterpart into confidence. He must be given credit for this deft balancing act. Even if the record of his government on the domestic front is mixed, on foreign policy, it passes with flying colors so far. Perhaps the biggest test of his foreign policy will come via the Kerung-Kathmandu rail-link project, with its attendant geopolitical and economic implications, when the feasibility study is complete in August.

Children of ’86

The first football World Cup to be televised live in Nepal was 1982 Spain. Back then, there were no Nepali broadcasters, nor was there satellite TV. What little Nepalis got to witness, in uneven sound and pixilated pictures, came via the antenna on their rooftops. Even this shoddy broadcast was only available to the well-to-do as most Nepalis at the time could not afford television sets. Things would dramatically change with the establish­ment of Nepal Television in 1983 and particularly when the national broadcaster gained the rights to show the 1986 World Cup in Mexico.

 

By 1986, a few more Nepalis in urban areas could buy black-and-white TVs. Not only were there more TV sets on which to watch matches live. As the local NTV would be carrying pictures from Mexico the broadcast would also be much clearer. Thousands upon thou­sands of people huddled around the few television sets in their neighborhoods to watch the greatest sporting spectacle on the planet. What they saw mesmerized them, making them lifelong football fans.

 

Or make that Argentina fans. Nepalis just could not get enough of the diminutive ‘God’ who would easily out-dribble and out-run all his competitors on the field of play. Not just that. Unlike other mor­tals, he could score a legitimate goal even with his hands. Diego Maradona is perhaps the single biggest reason, along with his more contemporary protégé in Lionel Messi, why Argentina to this day has arguably the biggest fan following in Nepal among all major World Cup contenders. Just like you are more likely to vote for a political party your parents voted for, the children of the 1986 generation of Argentine fans find it hard to switch.

 

That said, this is no 1986. These days, football fans can watch their favorite sport being beamed live from all parts of the globe. The number of Nepalis who follow particular football clubs—English, Spanish, Germans—has also rocketed. With international trav­el getting cheaper, many can also afford to see the World Cup in person. Hundreds, perhaps thousands of Nepalis, will be in Russia to savor live action this June and July. Football thus continues to be wildly pop­ular despite the national men football team’s lowly 161 rank, and the near-impossibility its qualification for the World Cup any time soon. We may be divided by our pick of teams but we are all united by our common love for this beautiful game.

Much talk, little work

With the entry of the Sanghiya Sam­ajbadi Forum Nepal, the govern­ment led by KP Sharma Oli now has over two-thirds strength in the federal parliament. It also effectively controls all seven provinces. But even before the Forum’s inclusion, the federal government had a comfortable majority. It could have used this strength to enact vital pro-people reforms, which it has unfortunately failed to do.

 

It is true that the attention of the ruling CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center) during this period was focused on formalizing their unity, which was import­ant. Without it, clouds of uncertainty would have con­tinued to swirl over the communist coalition, and its twin agenda of ‘stability’ and ‘prosperity’ could have been in jeopardy.

 

But even after taking that into account, progress has been slow. The government, for instance, repeated­ly promised to bust cartels in all sectors, but some of its actions seemed to support them instead. Likewise, the concentration of powers at the PMO, reportedly to expedite service delivery and make the government more accountable, has also come to a naught. This has made some suspect that the government has an authoritarian bent.

 

Still, these are early days and we would like to give the ruling parties the benefit of the doubt. But it would be good if the prime minister and his cabinet mem­bers actually focused on deliverables rather than mak­ing big (and ultimately empty) promises. The recently unveiled budget aims to double the per capita income and attain double-digit economic growth, both within five years, but if offers little in terms of how these lofty targets will be met.

 

Nepalis don’t expect transformative changes over­night. But it’s time for PM Oli to prove that not only can he dream big, but he also has the gumption and the commitment to make his dreams come true. As the most powerful prime minister in the history of demo­cratic Nepal, he can go one of two ways.

 

He can use his newfound powers to build a stable, united and prosperous Nepal. Or he can abuse the same powers to undercut democratic values and cement his stranglehold on power. We will be closely watching each and every action of this government. The benefit of the doubt many Nepalis have given it should not be considered a carte blanche.

Brutal justice

Balkrishna Dhungel, the Maoist leader con­victed of a war-time murder, epitomizes the egregious failure of the Nepali political class to provide justice to conflict victims and thereby to close the bloody chapter in Nepali history in which over 16,000 people were killed. The Compre­hensive Peace Agreement (CPA) of 2006 had provided for the formation of commissions on ‘truth and rec­onciliation’ and ‘enforced disappearances’ within six months; they took over eight years to come into being. The delay owed to the reluctance of the Maoists to part with their arms and the determination of other parties to ensure that the former rebels did so before they entered mainstream politics.

 

When at long last the two commissions were formed in February 2015, national and international human rights watchdogs were unanimous in their condem­nation. The TORs of the commissions appeared to provide amnesty even in cases of grave human rights violations. Had the two commissions been formed on time, all conflict-era cases would have been handled by these constitutional bodies. In their absence, the judi­ciary was forced to step in. The Dhungel case seemed headed for a close when the Supreme Court in 2010 upheld the lower courts’ life-imprisonment verdict. But Dhungel managed to somehow escape police cap­tivity before he was finally arrested last November.

 

The political parties, especially the Maoists, wanted to have their cake and eat it too: they asked for all con­flict-time cases to be handled by transitional justice bodies but they didn’t want any prosecution for those implicated in rights abuses. They lobbied for watering down the mandate of the two commissions. With the issue of the mandate as yet unresolved, the Maoists are now part of the all-powerful government and Dhungel has been given a presidential pardon. A convicted mur­derer is now a free man. (The Supreme Court could have overturned the pardon but chose not to.)

 

No state organ or political party seems serious about transitional justice. They take heed only because it would be impossible to completely ignore the pressure of the human rights community to come good on the CPA’s commitment. There is now a risk that conflict-era cases like Dhungel’s will continue to crop up, with all their attendant controversy, and the ruling communist party will continue to ram through amnesties, even as the judiciary looks on helplessly. Meanwhile, there will be no end to the prolonged suffering of conflict victims.