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The inclusion of Upendra Yadav-led Sanghi­ya Samajbadi Forum gives the government of KP Sharma Oli over two-third majority in the federal lower house. As we went to press, the Rastriya Janata Party Nepal (RJPN), the other big Madhesi party besides the Forum, was also said to be ‘positive’ about joining the government. If the RJPN does indeed join, the ruling left coalition will, effective­ly, have absolute control over the federal government as well as all seven provincial governments, including in Province 2 that is ruled by a Forum-RJPN coalition.

This would make KP Sharma Oli, the leader of the left coalition, perhaps the most powerful prime minister of democratic Nepal. But PM Oli does not stop there. From now on the Prime Minister’s Office will directly oversee such vital state organs as the National Inves­tigation Department (which works on national securi­ty), the Department of Revenue Investigation (which investigates possible leakage of taxpayer money), and the Department of Anti-Money Laundering. Oli-led PMO will also directly oversee the functioning of NGOs and form think-tanks to advise the government on var­ious issues of national concern.

The prime minister, as such, will enjoy sweeping powers. This is not necessarily bad. This can be a sign that PM Oli aims to be a no-nonsense, hands-on prime minister. Nepal has long been saddled by weak prime ministers who were either uninterested in exercising their authority for the common good, or could not do so for various constraints of coalition politics. PM Oli, who hopes to make the PMO a ‘center of excellence’, now has few of these constraints.

In this light, this could be a start of a new era of good governance and accountability. It could also help bring the country together, if the prime minister is indeed serious about his commitment to amend the constitution to meet at least some demands of the Madhesi parties.

But there is also a risk. As the chairman of CPN-UML, a party that has come to be linked with various vested interests, particularly in health and education sectors, Oli could just as easily use his vast powers to strength­en and expand his patronage networks. If so, he will not be the first post-1990 prime minister of Nepal to abuse his authority. But for his sincere outreach to the Madhesi parties, his appointment of clean and capa­ble ministers in key portfolios and the can-do attitude on display in his early days as prime minister, PM Oli deserves our benefit of doubt for now.

Yubaraj Khatiwada is the right man to lead the Ministry of Finance. Not just because he has a Phd in monetary economics from the pres­tigious Delhi School of Economics—although that is no small consideration in a country where this vital portfolio has time and again gone to those with limited economic nous. The new finance minister has a record of helping steady the economy through diffi­cult times, particularly during his previous stint as the central bank governor.

Khatiwada takes over as finance minister when the economy is again hitting turbulence. Over the past one decade, the country’s trade deficit has declined by a yearly average of 21.9 percent. It has notched up over Rs 90 billion of deficit in the first five months of the current fiscal alone.

Foreign remittance, Nepal’s one sure source of steady income, is drying up. In the five months of the current fiscal, remittance is down 0.8 percent compared to the same period last year—the first negative remittance growth rate in over a decade. Recurrent expenditures are shooting up, productive spending is stagnant, and another real estate bubble is building. Even someone with Khatiwada’s stellar credentials could struggle to bring the twisted economy in shape.

But Khatiwada seems to be in a mood to make a good fist of it. In his first declaration as finance minister, he vowed to bring all government transactions online from the upcoming Nepali New Year. This, if can be done, could make a significant dent on bureaucratic corruption and reduce money-laundering, a growing problem. As a representative of the unified left gov­ernment, Khatiwada added, he is as committed to the left alliance’s electoral commitment of common pros­perity. Moreover, he said he was determined to bring Nepal’s economy back on track. But therein also lies the problem.

CPN-UML, the senior partner in the recent merger with CPN (Maoist Center), has long been seen as a par­ty that protects cartels and syndicates. It also has a vast patronage network to look after. This raises a legitimate fear: Will the new finance minister be allowed to work freely? Or will he be used primarily as a smokescreen behind which the various vested interests of the new communist juggernaut can hide?

Having shown the courage to sideline his cronies who were all angling for the finance ministry, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli would do well to give his cho­sen one enough room to work in the country’s interest.

Age, it seems, is starting to catch up with Sher Bahadur Deuba. The recently-ousted Prime Minister and President of Nepali Congress—the main opposition party in national and in six of the seven provincial parliaments—needs physi­cal assistance to safely move around these days. Raised in an environment where political leaders tend to cling to power till they are literally on their death-beds, Deu­ba is not the only aging top leader in active politics. Yet there are other good reasons why time has come for the four-time prime minister to bow out, while he can still do so with a smidgen of grace.

Having earned for himself such unappetizing epi­thets as ‘incompetent’ and ‘wasteful’ over his previous three terms as prime minister, Deuba, however, will also be remembered for successfully holding all three constitutionally-mandated elections on time during his fourth term. This is no small feat. In doing so he has paved the way for a peaceful and prosperous New Nepal. It would make sense for him to retire on this high. On the other hand, if he looks to hang on, it is all downhill for the septuagenarian.

It is hard to see the electoral fortunes of Congress turn around under Deuba. His party’s rather humiliating outing in recent elections—in national parliament, the party won just 63 seats compared to CPN-UML’s 121—has largely been attributed to two factors. One, the party’s paucity of agenda save for endlessly demonizing ‘the authori­tarian left’ at the hustings. Two, people’s lack of faith in Deuba as a statesman. So long as Deuba and Congress continue to be coterminous, it will be difficult to asso­ciate the party as the one that has been at the vanguard of every major democratic change since 1950.

With the unity of the two left parties, which together now enjoy thumping majorities in the federal as well as in six provincial parliaments, and in most local units, too, the country desperately needs a strong and credi­ble opposition. But only a Congress that is thoroughly revamped, from the grassroots right up to its top lead­ership, can play this vital role. Both age and new imagi­nation not on his side, Deuba knows this well. Perhaps he as well realizes that his last-ditch efforts to retain party leadership is a lost battle. It also does grievous harm to his party and his country.

As political analyst Krishna Khanal points out, after a long time, the head of government in Nepal will have an unquestionable man­date to govern (see: Many hurdles ahead for Oli government, Page 2). Since the 2006 political changes, until the promulgation of the new constitu­tion on September 20, 2015, successive governments were occupied with completing the peace and consti­tution process that started with the signing of the Com­prehensive Peace Accord in 2006. After constitution promulgation, the focus shifted to holding the consti­tutionally-mandated three tiers of elections. Only after these elections was an environment created for the new constitution’s implementation.

KP Sharma Oli becomes the first prime minister to see to the institutionalization of the nascent federal set-up, as provided in the new constitution. With the merger between CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center) now all but assured, Oli will get to lead a strong gov­ernment with a commanding majority in the national parliament. Not just that. His left alliance will also form governments in six of the seven federal provinces, bar­ring Province 2. It is hard to think of a more favorable political climate for the new prime minister.

On the campaign trail, Oli had promised a new era of prosperity and stability. That will be a tall order. Most of the next few years will, perforce, be spent devising the right formula for division of spoils among the cen­tral government, the seven provinces and the 753 local bodies—in what is sure to be an acrimonious and ardu­ous process. In this climate, it will be difficult for Oli to chart out a clear path for collective, national prosperity.

He could have better luck on stability, primarily because of the solid mandate he enjoys at all three levels of government. If there is one strong communist party following the left merger, handing over power to Maoist chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, as agreed, need not be very disruptive either.

Oli’s difficult relations with Madhesi parties could be more problematic. He will not find it easy to accommo­date them in the new central government, much less accommodating their demands in the new constitu­tion. Separately, nor will it be easy for him to deal with India and China, with their growing (and often compet­ing) influences and expectations.

Oli’s mettle as a national leader was put to a serious test during his stint as the blockade-time prime minis­ter. With challenges aplenty on both national and inter­national fronts, it will not be any easier this time.