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Nepal’s economy is showing signs of steady recovery and resilience, according to latest reports from the World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB). While the outlook is positive, these institutions say the country still faces some serious hurdles that need to be addressed to maintain this momentum.

The World Bank’s Nepal Development Update (April 2025) has forecast economic growth of 4.5 percent for the current fiscal year, up from 3.9 percent last year. It expects average growth of 5.4 percent over the next two years. The World Bank has attributed this rise to improvements in the services sector, boosted by stronger domestic trade, rising imports and solid performance in hydropower and construction. The ADB’s Asian Development Outlook (April 2025) offers a similar but slightly lower estimate of 4.4 percent growth. It highlights increased hydropower production and better agricultural output—especially in paddy farming—as key drivers of the growth. Both institutions have said that Nepal has managed to bounce back well, despite challenges like natural disasters and travel disruptions caused by the upgrade of Tribhuvan International Airport.

The NRB’s latest report supports this optimistic view. Inflation has eased to 3.85 percent in mid-March of 2025, down from 4.82 percent a year before—well below the central bank’s target. Foreign exchange reserves are healthy, enough to cover more than 17 months of merchandise imports and 14 months of merchandise and services imports, while exports are up by 57.2 percent. These indicators suggest that the country’s economic fundamentals are becoming more stable.

The growth prospects, however, are not without risks. The World Bank has warned that global issues, such as political conflicts, rising prices, and heavy dependence on remittances and tourism, could affect Nepal’s growth. It also said the FATF greylisting has hampered Nepal’s efforts to access international capital markets after having a BB- country rating. The ADB added that ongoing tariff rises may cause a global economic downturn, affecting Nepal’s tourism receipts and remittances, and lower foreign aid could negatively impact growth as Nepal relies on foreign aid to finance development needs. 

The government must prioritize reforms and enhance its spending efficiency to maintain this momentum. Promoting private sector growth through clearer laws and regulations, bolstering the financial system, harnessing hydropower potential, and upgrading tourism infrastructure could generate employment opportunities and lessen dependence on remittances. Similarly, the government should act swiftly to implement the Financial Action Task Force’s recommendations to secure Nepal’s removal from the ‘gray list.’ Failure to address this could lead to severe repercussions.

Oftentimes, it appears that Nepal’s prolonged peace process is getting nowhere, that it has forgotten the victims of a decade-long war that left behind a trail of deaths, destruction and disappearances. After the cessation of hostilities between the then Maoist rebels and the government and signing of a comprehensive peace accord on 21 Nov 2006, much water has flown down the perennial rivers of Nepal. The period since then has witnessed developments like the entry of the Maoists into the mainstream politics, the declaration of the country as a federal secular democratic republic (28 May 2008), completion of the disarmament process of the Maoist army (2012) and the promulgation of a constitution through a Constituent Assembly (2015) in its second term.

These developments notwithstanding, transitional justice remains as a sticking point.

Why would it not? After all, according to estimates, more than 17,000 Nepalis died in the decade-long war, many sustained injuries, hundreds became victims of enforced disappearances and infrastructure worth billions of rupees vaporized, literally, pushing Nepal decades back in terms of development.

In the hearts of the victims and their relatives sits a fear. The victims fear that the leaders of the three major political parties—the Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and the CPN(Maoist Center)—won’t bother to address their concerns, that the top brass will make a compromise to serve their petty interests and save their heads instead.

It is a given that no amount of ‘justice’ can bring a life back, no amount of ‘justice’ can heal the wounds of a war.

That fact aside, the victims have been demanding that there should be no amnesty in cases of heinous crimes like murder, rape and indiscriminate killings.

Against this backdrop, CPN (Maoist Center) Chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’, addressing an interaction on transitional justice in Kathmandu on Thursday, said there never was and will never be a disagreement among the three major parties on taking the remaining tasks of the peace process to a logical conclusion.

He stressed the need to give topmost priority when it comes to delivering justice to the victims, pointing out at the passage of the Truth and Reconciliation Bill and the formation of a recommendation committee for giving shape to a Truth and Reconciliation Commission.

 Past assurances of justice for the victims have proved hollow, stressing a crying need to walk the talk, which may be easier said than done. The top political leadership would do well to not ignore the victims’ concerns. 

‘The consumer is the king of the market.’ 

The above quote seems to imply that the consumer holds (almost) tyrannical power over the market.

The quote gives consumer confidence a boost, but not for long against lived experiences, especially in less developed countries and monopoly markets like Nepal where the consumer has remained a paper tiger for long.  

The quote notwithstanding, the situation on the ground is far more sobering in the context of Nepal where consumerism remains an alien concept, where getting cheated in terms of price, quality and quantity has become the norm rather than the exception for the gullible consumer. Here, cartelling, hoarding and black-marketing have become standard business practices and even if one gets caught for resorting to these practices, chances of getting an early release are pretty high, thanks to friends in high places. 

In the name of protecting consumers’ interests, very many organizations have sprouted in Nepal over the decades. But most of these bodies are not independent; they merely are extensions of different political parties. Obviously, they are more interested in pursuing politics in the name of the consumer than taking pains for the protection of consumer rights. 

By the way, what does the Constitution of Nepal, 2015 provide for the (wronged) consumer? 

Article 44 (1) states, in no uncertain terms: Every consumer shall have the right to obtain quality goods and services. 

Article 44 (2) goes: A person who has suffered injury from any substandard goods or services shall have the right to obtain compensation in accordance with law. 

A fitting tribute to consumer rights, right? 

But the consumer needs far more than hollow words, it needs some concrete action to get core concerns addressed. 

For a long time, the conscious consumer has felt the need for a dedicated court to address grievances. The good news is, such a court has finally started operation coinciding with the World Consumer Rights Day (March 15).   

The Consumer Court, established with a mission to expedite legal proceedings and provide swift resolutions to consumer complaints, consists of Kathmandu district court Judge Ram Prasad Sharma as chair and gazetted second-class officers Gehendra Raj Regmi and Ananda Raj Pokharel as members, apart from a registrar for filing cases. 

Now that the long-awaited court has materialized, time has come for the aggrieved people to break the silence and move the court, if need be, for the protection of consumer rights.  

How effective, innovative and imaginative is our diplomacy, in this day and age of a rapidly changing world?

Let us do a fact check on the basis of a key test case. 

On 07 Oct 2023, Hamas launched an attack on Gaza Strip, killing more than 1100 people, including 10 Nepali students, and capturing 250, including a young Nepali student from Kanchanpur, Bipin Joshi, who was studying agriculture in Israel along with his friends.

It will be wrong to say that the government has been doing nothing to secure the release of the youth, bring him home and bring cheers to his family and the country. It has been making frantic efforts that have failed to yield a result.

Let’s revisit some of those efforts.    

On 24 Sept 2024, for instance, Minister for Foreign Affairs Arzu Rana Deuba, addressing the Ministerial Meeting of the Non-Aligned Movement during the 79th United Nations General Assembly, urged the global community to take initiatives for the safe release of Joshi.

On 08 Jan 2025, Minister Deuba requested the Israeli government, through Ambassador Shmulik Arie Bass, to secure the release of Joshi.

On Jan 15, in the wake of reports that Hamas was releasing some hostages, Minister Deuba called up Qatar’s Minister of State at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mohammed bin Abdulaziz bin Saleh al-Khulaifi, who serves as Qatar’s chief negotiator and mediator in peace talks with Hamas, and appealed for special intervention to secure Joshi’s release.

During a meeting with Qatar’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Sultan bin Saad bin Sultan Al Muraikhi in Doha on Feb 16. Minister Deuba sought the latter’s good offices in securing Joshi’s release.

Adding to these efforts, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli recently called upon Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi,  the president of Egypt, which played a key role in mediating the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, renewing Nepal’s request for Egypt’s assistance in securing the release of Joshi.

Nepal has been playing a key role in the UN peacekeeping missions around the world for about 70 years and its involvement in securing peace in the Mideast is as long. It has served twice in the UN Security Council as an elected non-permanent member, in 1969-70 and in 1988-1989. In 2018-20, Nepal served as a member of the United Nations Human Rights Council. Nepal was the first country in South Asia to recognize Israel after its birth as a state on 14 May 1948. The country has excellent relations with Qatar, which is a popular employment destination for Nepali workers. And the enduring ties between Nepal and Egypt, a key NAM member, go a long time back.

Despite these positives and efforts from our side, the release of Joshi has not materialized even as freedom comes calling for many of the hostages.

This debacle reminds one of Henry Kissinger’s famous quote: Behind the slogans lay an intellectual vacuum.

And a razor-sharp Chanakya goes: In diplomacy, the tongue is mightier than the sword. 

In the words of Chanakya, diplomacy is the art of winning the war without bloodshed.

Delays in securing the release of Joshi perhaps call for learning lessons from past failures and adopting a subtler, quieter approach, keeping in mind that this is an acid test for our “art of the impossible”.