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Nepal's contemporary political history shows that an unstable political system has been a constant. The country is at another crossroads following the Sept 8-9 protest of GenZers against chronic corruption, nepotism and political instability that overthrew the government of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, leading to the dissolution of the Parliament through a presidential decree and the appointment of a retired Chief Justice, Sushila Karki, as PM, with the sole mandate of holding elections to the House of Representatives on March 5 next year. One of the most important questions that we face as a nation at this point in time is: What will happen if the government fails to conduct the polls on time? 

What’s more, the course that Nepal takes will have implications for regional stability too. 

A history of instability 

To understand the gravity of this moment, we must look at Nepal's troubled political history. Since the restoration of multiparty democracy in 1990, our country has witnessed more than two dozen prime ministers. Between 2008 and 2025 alone, Nepal saw 14 different governments. This carousel of leadership has created a political culture where power sharing out-dated policy implementation, and coalition building became more important than serving the people.   

In 1961, King Mahendra banned political parties and began the Panchayat system, which remained until 1990, when a popular movement compelled King Birendra to go for multiparty democracy with constitutional monarchy. With the start of the Maoist insurgency in 1996, Nepal entered a decade-long civil war that killed more than 17,000 people. After the people's movement of 2006, the monarchy got abolished (in 2008) and the Constitution promulgated seven years later turned Nepal into a federal secular democratic republic. 

Political instability continues to be Nepal’s defining feature in spite of these constitutional accomplishments. Frequent changes in administration have caused public confidence to plummet, slowed down development initiatives and fostered an atmosphere that allows nepotism and corruption to thrive unchecked. 

The GenZ awakening 

The September 2025 GenZ protests were not spontaneous, they were the eruption of long simmering frustration. The government banned 26 social media platforms on Sept 4 to silence dissent and what followed is public knowledge. 

Young Nepalis, representing over 60 percent of the population under age 30, poured into the streets with three clear demands: end corruption, eliminate nepotism, and reform the political system.

This movement stood out from earlier demonstrations due to its leaderless, digital-native nature. GenZ activists organized using social media sites like Facebook, Instagram and Discord, completely avoiding established political systems. While regular Nepalis faced depleting earnings and a youth unemployment rate of 20 percent, they revealed the extravagant lifestyles of politicians' offspring, known as “nepo kids,” who were vacationing in Europe and shopping for expensive brands.  

On Sept 8, police opened fire during the movements, killing 19 people, including a 12-year-old. The next day, angry demonstrators stormed and burnt the Supreme Court, Parliament and the homes of politicians. There were 72 fatalities in all. PM Oli resigned on Sept 9 and Sushila Karki succeeded him, becoming the country's first female PM, on Sept 12, leading an interim administration with the sole goal of holding free and fair elections on March 5 next year.  

A gray area  

The interim government exists in a constitutional gray area. Nepal’s 2015 Constitution does not explicitly provide for appointing a prime minister, who is not a sitting member of the parliament. The current arrangement emerged through negotiations involving President Ramchandra Paudel and Chief of the Army Staff Ashok Raj Sigdel with GenZ representatives—an unprecedented process that bypassed normal constitutional channels.

 Under the Constitution, the House of Representatives comprises 275 members: 165 elected through FPTP from single constituencies and 110 through proportional representation. The Election Commission has approved the election schedule, with political parties required to register between November 16-26, 2025, campaign period running from February 15 to March 2 next year and voting on March 5 (7 am-5 pm).

The interim government has formed a judicial commission to investigate the violence, appointed untainted candidates as ministers and pledged to serve a maximum six-month term. Prime Minister Karki promised diplomats that her government is “non-political” with a “single, non-negotiable mandate”—conducting elections on the stipulated date (March 5 next year).  

Neighborly influence 

The political stability of Nepal affects the entire region. For both the neighbours—China and India—Nepal’s stability is very important. 

India and Nepal have an open border, and India is home to the largest Nepali diaspora. An open border between two sovereign countries is taking a toll on the overall security of both the countries, thanks to a relatively unrestricted movement of people, transnational crimes and illegal trade.  

In order to protect its Tibetan border and further BRI projects, China sees Nepal as strategically significant. Beijing emphasized its commitment to “regional stability” by quickly recognizing the Karki-led government. However, Nepal’s inability to strengthen bilateral ties and repeated changes in administration have become a constant irritant for China.  

 Both the neighbors kept a close watch on the GenZ movement. China voiced hope that “dialogue will restore social order,” while the Indian ambassador was present at Karki’s swearing-in. Our history shows that any extended instability invites outside intervention, teaching us to move with extreme caution. 

Consequences of electoral delays   

If elections do not occur on March 5 next year, Nepal faces dire consequences across multiple dimensions. 

Political Crisis: The commitment of the interim government to holding elections on time is the only thing that gives it legitimacy. Any delay might spark violent protests again because it would be seen as treachery. The CPN (Maoist Center), Nepali Congress, and CPN-UML are the main major groups that already oppose the temporary arrangement; some call for the reinstatement of Parliament. Nepal might experience a constitutional crisis in the absence of elections, necessitating either military action or authoritarian governance.  

Economic collapse: Damages from the protests in September totalled $22.5bn, or over half of Nepal’s GDP. Growth estimates dropped below one percent, investor confidence hit rock bottom and cancellations decimated tourism throughout the holiday season. Prolonged uncertainty is too much for Nepal's economy, which already depends on remittances that account for more than 25 percent of GDP. Postponing elections will hinder reconstruction efforts, halt development initiatives and encourage more young people to go overseas.  

Social instability: GenZ called for the abolition of nepotism, direct executive elections and investigations into corruption scandals from 1990 to 2025. Postponing elections will not make these goals go away. Young people’s “radically different understandings of power, deference and legitimacy” from older generations came to light through the movement, revealing significant generational gaps. Continued isolation runs the risk of radicalization, which could reignite an armed insurgency or ethnic conflicts similar to the Maoist insurgency of 1996–2006.  

Regional instability: The crisis in Nepal is similar to recent upheavals in Bangladesh (2024) and Sri Lanka (2022), where youth movements and economic desperation overthrew governments. In addition to upsetting India-China relations and undermining trust in democratic institutions throughout the region, a failed transition in Nepal will destabilize South Asia.  

Will big parties cooperate? 

There is an existential challenge for established parties. Although they still have rural support and organizational strength, the GenZ movement has destroyed their credibility. How the new and the old parties fare remains to be seen.  

The CPN-UML has called for the restoration of the Parliament, while others insist elections proceed as scheduled. Some traditional leaders refuse to resign or make way for younger voices, clinging to power despite widespread discontent. Yet cooperation is essential, elections without major party participation would lack legitimacy.  

While tackling three pressing issues—restoring police infrastructure damaged during protests, removing legal barriers preventing young voters from voting and establishing a competent commission to investigate the violence—Prime Minister Karki must forge unity across the political spectrum. Current methods put thousands of young people at risk of losing their right to vote, while the pledge to grant Nepalis overseas the right to vote remains a pledge.    

The path forward 

More than just a democratic exercise, the March 2026 election will determine if Nepal can overcome the decades-long cycles of instability. The GenZ movement demanded fairness, clean government, and youth participation in decision-making; it was more than just resistance.  

Success requires political will from all stakeholders. Traditional parties must accept that "rank and power" alone cannot sustain legitimacy. They must embrace reforms, investigate corruption transparently and genuinely include marginalized voices. The interim government must restore law and order, rebuild destroyed institutions, and conduct elections that command legitimacy domestically and internationally.  

If elections fail to take place on time, Nepal faces a grim future: constitutional crisis, economic ruin, social upheaval and regional destabilization. But if we seize this moment, if political leaders rise above narrow interests and young citizens engage constructively, Nepal can finally establish stable, accountable governance.   

The choice is ours. A government born from a people’s movement cannot afford to fail. The world watches as Nepal stands at a crossroads: reconstruction or regression, democracy or chaos, hope or despair. Our response to this question “If the elections are not held in time, what will happen?” will define Nepal’s route for generations to come. So, let’s create a conducive environment for free and fair elections.

More than 80 political parties have registered with the Election Commission (EC), apparently with the intent of contesting the elections for the House of Representatives slated for March 5 next year. The EC has added 8,37,094 new voters to its rolls for the polls, taking the total number of voters to 19,005,324, a surge of about five percent. The minimum eligible age for voting is 18, meaning that one can vote if s/he has a) attained the age of 18 by March 4 and b) got a voter’s ID card from the EC. The EC’s final tally on Dec 6 will show the exact number of voters for the polls.

More than a surge in the number of voters, it shows a desire, especially of the youths, to take part in a democratic process that will select a political leadership that will steer the country, most probably for another five years.

While parties across the political spectrum appear “on the go” for the elections, the major onus is on the government of the day to create a conducive environment for the same. After the youths-led protests of Sept 8-9, leaders of  some parties, especially the top leaders, may not have been feeling that safe and secure. The government leadership must reach out to them, address their security concerns and win their confidence. Moreover, some incidents have shown a tendency on the part of our parties to not only boycott each other, but also to prevent each other from organizing political programs and rallies in each other’s ‘turf’. This is not a good sign for democracy; the government should discourage such a tendency. 

At the same time, the administration must make all necessary arrangements to conduct the polls in a free, fair and transparent manner. Many jailbirds, who escaped from their cells on Sept 8-9, remain at large along with lethal weapons. The government must intensify search and recovery efforts to rearrest the jailbirds and recover the looted arms. It must reestablish police offices, posts and beats destroyed during the protests, boost the morale of security forces, recruit temporary security personnel and conduct voter education/awareness programs by working on a war footing. 

In summary, the government must rally the entire nation for the polls to make sure that the Nepali people win, with a landslide. 

The prospect of the March 5 elections has slightly improved. The CPN-UML, which had long emphasized parliament restoration over elections, has now registered its party for electoral purposes, sending a positive signal across the political landscape.

At the same time, however, UML has filed a writ at the Supreme Court demanding the restoration of parliament. This move is unusual, as the party itself is petitioning the court. The Supreme Court has already received more than a dozen writs calling for the restoration of parliament.

Yet questions remain about whether UML will fully commit to the elections, as it continues raising concerns about the constitutionality of the government. UML’s decision was influenced by the Nepali Congress’ announcement that it would participate in the polls. Other fringe parties had already begun preparations. At this point, very few parties openly oppose holding elections.

Although the countdown to March 5 has begun, major parties have not clarified their positions on potential electoral alliances. Since 2017, alliances have become the norm in Nepali politics. Madhes-based parties and newer fringe groups are already exploring alliances, but major parties remain conspicuously silent.

Compounding this uncertainty, there have been no recent meetings among major political leaders. The animosity between UML and Nepali Communist Party coordinator Pushpa Kamal Dahal continues. Oli has publicly accused Dahal of engineering the Sept 8–9 protests, while Dahal blames Oli’s governance failures for the unrest.

Meanwhile, the number of political parties preparing to participate in the polls is likely to increase substantially. The GenZ movement has spawned numerous new parties. The number of parties registered at the Election Commission for election purposes has already reached 106, up from 82 in the previous election.

With the EC extending the registration deadline by four days, the count is expected to grow further. As of Nov 27, the total number of registered political parties stands at 137. If more of these parties win seats, the new parliament could become even more fractured, increasing the risk of political instability.

On the logistical front, both the Ministry of Home Affairs and the Election Commission are preparing intensively for the March 5 polls. The National Security Council has recommended mobilizing the Nepal Army for election security, and the government has begun recruiting temporary police. For election logistics, the government is planning vehicle purchases, while India and China have pledged additional support.

New parties formed after the GenZ movement are also exploring alliances aimed at challenging traditional forces. Some are even considering unification. The Rastriya Swatantra Party has already decided to merge with the Bibeksheel Party and is reaching out to other “alternative forces.”

Inside the UML, a new development is unfolding. Senior leader Ishwar Pokhrel has announced he will challenge KP Sharma Oli for the party leadership at the upcoming general convention on Dec 13–14. Although Oli retains strong control within the party, many leaders are pressuring him to step aside. Pokhrel is widely viewed as a proxy for former President Bidya Devi Bhandari. Fearing monopolization of the selection of convention representatives, Bhandari has urged the Oli faction to adopt a balanced approach.

The intra-party conflict in the Nepali Congress is also intensifying. One faction insists on holding a special convention to elect new leadership, while the establishment faction argues that, with elections only 100 days away, such a convention is impossible. There are growing fears of a potential split, though it remains unlikely. General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa has publicly declared that the party will not contest the elections under Deuba’s leadership.

Pushpa Kamal Dahal, meanwhile, continues to welcome splinter groups from other parties. On Nov 27, four groups from various parties joined the Nepali Communist Party. As election day nears, politicians from smaller groups are increasingly joining larger parties in search of tickets and better prospects. Dahal is portraying this as “a major unification of the communist forces.”

The commission led by Gauri Bahadur Karki, tasked with investigating the Sept  8–9 protests, is facing challenges handling high-profile political figures. Oli has openly questioned the commission’s legitimacy and repeatedly said he will not cooperate. The Nepal Army has responded to written queries but declined to appear in person. With only a three-month mandate, and limited cooperation, completing the investigation on time appears difficult.

As the commission proceeds, Nepal Police have arrested around 515 individuals on charges of arson and vandalism during the GenZ movement. Cases have been filed against 267 of them. Although Home Minister Om Prakash Aryal was initially against mass arrests, police pressure led to action. Meanwhile, 9,697 inmates who escaped during the movement remain at large.

While tensions between the government and political parties have eased somewhat, friction between GenZ groups and the government is rising. Some GenZ groups have protested appointments in Prime Minister Sushila Karki’s cabinet. The government is working to sign an agreement with GenZ groups to legitimize the September protests, but political parties have not been consulted. GenZ groups are pushing for a quick agreement to avoid potential prosecution by a new post-election government.

Most members of the international community appear supportive of holding elections on March 5. They view the polls as essential for putting the country back on the constitutional track. Two senior diplomats I spoke with this week said they are encouraging both the government and political parties not to postpone the elections, warning that any delay could create further uncertainty in Nepal.

Every morning as Kathmandu wakes, street dogs stretch out of alleys, temple courtyards, and construction sites. They belong to everyone and no one. But behind their wagging tails and familiar faces is a silent struggle for survival of hunger, accidents, mistreatment, and the deadly threat of rabies.

The story follows the life of one street dog—Tommy, a few years back, he used to live in my locality. Local shopkeepers fed him scraps, but no one knows his age or where he came from. He used to live in front of my house where he felt safe. One day, Tommy gets into a fight with a pack from a nearby area, and a small wound goes unnoticed. Within days, his behaviour changes—he becomes restless, aggressive, and later disappears. One day while returning from school, we learned he was taken by some people in the van. His story reflects what happens to thousands of strays each year.

The numbers tell a serious story. According to Nepal in data report, Kathmandu Metropolitan City (KMC) data from 2016 estimated around 30,000 stray dogs roaming the city. By 2018, veterinary doctors noted that this number had increased, citing the lack of government measures to manage the population. The World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) reported in 2019 that Nepal had a total dog population of over 2.7m, of which approximately 2m were community or stray dogs and estimates for Kathmandu specifically range from 19,000 to over 30,000.

Animal Nepal (2022 report) shows that they have sterilized 1,968 dogs across Lalitpur, Kirtipur, Mahagadhimai, Lumbini, and Nepalgunj, treated 1,892 dogs in Kathmandu Valley and Lumbini for injuries and illnesses, vaccinated 3,337 dogs against rabies in multiple districts and facilitated adoption for 24 rescued dogs.

Voice of Animal Nepal (VOAN) (2024 report) notes that they have rescued and cared for over 1,350 injured, abandoned, or abused animals, sterilized over 100 dogs and cats in Kathmandu and nearby districts, and vaccinated 450 animals against rabies in partnership with local authorities. It has also estimated 22,000 street dogs throughout Kathmandu Valley.
Despite Nepal’s commitment to eliminate dog-mediated human rabies deaths by 2030, the reality on the ground paints a different picture.

Vaccine shortages, inadequate dog population management, misinformation, and deeply ingrained social stigma toward street dogs continue to hamper progress. Coordinated surveillance is minimal, meaning no reliable data exists on how many dogs are vaccinated, sterilized, or suffering from disease.

Legally, municipalities are responsible for managing street dogs, yet many lack the resources or rely on outdated practices like poisoning, despite legal bans. Consequently, dogs are often blamed and harmed instead of being protected or vaccinated. Fear and misinformation lead to killings, cruelty, and public apathy. Some neighbourhoods feed and care for dogs, while others throw stones or poison them. Public attitudes directly shape the fate of street dogs.

At the same time, NGOs, veterinarians, activists, and youth volunteers continue to make a difference. They run sterilization camps, vaccinate dogs, rescue the injured, and advocate for humane treatment.

Rupa Adhikari, a member of VOAN, explains the challenges on the ground, “Rabies vaccinations are provided by municipalities, and we collaborate with them. The vaccinations come from the government, and we help to administer them.

On a daily basis, we vaccinate 100–150 dogs. The government has been more helpful than before, but their interest is limited. They complain about a lack of budget. Often, they prefer to collaborate with private entities rather than NGOs. Even when we collaborate, vaccinations are conducted only in open areas, not narrow streets or densely populated localities.”

Adhikari highlighted that there is no proper implementation or legal threat for those who abuse animals. “In one case, an owner beat a dog, but the police showed little interest. We try to intervene, but sometimes, due to lack of evidence, we can’t do much. Many people think ‘they are just dogs,’ and that mindset is a major challenge.”

Advocates stress the need for a comprehensive legal framework and stronger government commitment. While police sometimes support animal welfare cases, widespread indifference continues to hinder progress.

Roman Raghu Shrestha, a veterinarian and surgeon at the Kathmandu Animal Treatment Centre (KAT), said, “We work on animal birth control surgeries, and we regularly vaccinate any animals brought to us. In the areas where we have worked—Tokha Municipality and Budhanilkantha Municipality—the estimated dog populations are 1,200–1,500 and 2,000–2,500 respectively. These figures are tentative, as the data vary between institutions and are recorded by the municipalities.”

In terms of awareness, they run programs in about 30 schools and colleges, reaching students from grade six up to the bachelor’s level. However, when it comes to policy, it has not been revised for a long time. The policies remain unchanged since their early introduction, and the resulting actions have been very limited.

“We do collaborate with the government on different campaigns. But regarding the rabies vaccine tracking system—an app designed to keep records, I didn’t feel comfortable using it, so we decided not to use it,” Shrestha said.

At the ministry level, officials acknowledge both the efforts made and the challenges ahead. Indira Sharma, veteran and information officer at the Department of Livestock Services, described the government’s approach, “We collaborate with everyone and engage with NGOs from time to time. They focus more on community welfare and advocacy, and we engage with them in policy-making and decision-making processes. Sometimes NGOs expect financial support which the government can’t provide at the moment.”

Sharma said that for legal punishment of animal abuse, the government is not directly responsible; local ministries look after these cases.”

She highlighted that for the 2030 rabies elimination goal, they follow “One Health” approach in collaboration with the Health Ministry adding, “We are working on Animal Birth Control Surgery at provincial and district hospitals to manage dog populations and running awareness programs by distributing pamphlets and posters, as well as using online campaigns via ministry websites and Facebook pages to educate communities.”

“The ministry is also engaged in policy development, working on regulations and guidelines to strengthen animal welfare. Disease surveillance is another key focus, with rabies prevalence monitored across animals through sample testing, supported by regional labs such as the Dhangadi Veterinary Lab,” she added.
Additionally, in fiscal year 2024/25, the government provided 154,000 doses of rabies vaccines, while private sectors imported more to supplement vaccination coverage. However, she noted challenges, “There is no dedicated budget for vaccination or animal welfare and collaboration with NGOs lacks a clear mechanism. As a ministry, we cannot reach everywhere, and that is a major problem.”

Nepal has more than half a million street dogs, yet many municipalities lack proper sterilization, vaccination programs, or shelters. Rabies, a 100 percent preventable disease, still claims lives every year—mostly among children in low-income communities. Lack of sterilization leads to unmanageable numbers of puppies, many of whom die from disease, starvation, or accidents.

Only a fraction of street dogs receive anti-rabies vaccines, and post-exposure treatment remains inaccessible to many.
The struggle of Kathmandu’s street dogs is a reflection of systemic gaps and the complex interplay between humans and animals.

Yet amidst this grim reality, the work of NGOs, veterinarians, and volunteers provides hope, illustrating that with coordinated effort, compassion, and policy support, the lives of street dogs and the safety of communities can be significantly improved.