Submit your Article

The March 5 parliamentary election is not merely a battle for seats, but for the ideological essence and the mode of governance of the nation. The newly formed Nepali Communist Party (NCP), created by the merger of ten unique communist groups, aims to reclaim the hegemony of the left. The Nepali Congress (NC), revitalized and fragmented with Gagan Thapa at the helm, marks a new generation of leadership that is moving away from the Sher Bahadur Deuba era. CPN-UML is trying to revive under the same KP Sharma Oli despite the backlash from the people.

However, these forces are just ‘old’ contenders for the election. The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), along with its strategic allies, has chosen former Kathmandu Metropolitan City Mayor Balen Shah as their prime ministerial candidate, hoping to capture the anti-incumbency sentiment of almost 19m voters and bring a technocratic revolution in the nation.

The election is marked by the presence of a number of ‘heavyweight’ contests where senior leaders face existential risks from each other or from emerging challengers. Based on the 2022 electoral baseline and the strategic realities of the 2026 race, here are the 11 most important constituencies that could determine the future balance of power in Nepal’s politics.

Jhapa-5

Jhapa-5 has come to occupy the center-stage in the election of 2026, with a direct confrontation between the Chairperson of the UML and former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and RSP’s Prime Ministerial Candidate Balen Shah. The constituency has traditionally been a stronghold of the UML, and it is interesting that Shah has chosen to fight this election in an attempt to take on the ‘titan’ in his own den.

Oli won this seat in the election of 2022 with relative ease, garnering 52,319 votes, more than twice the number of votes garnered by his closest contender from Nepali Congress, who managed only 23,743 votes. Shah has a considerable pull among the youths and new migrants in semi-rural districts like Jhapa. Although Oli still enjoys considerable support through the organizational strength of the UML and the traditional voter base of the party, especially among the elderly populations, the election here will now be a direct contest between ‘political longevity’ and ‘youths’. Even a slight loss of vote share by Oli will make this election a neck-and-neck contest.

Sarlahi-4

The newly elected President of the Nepali Congress, Gagan Kumar Thapa, is making a unique move by giving up a secure seat in Kathmandu-4 and opting for a contest from Sarlahi-4 in Madhes. Thapa is pitted against Amresh Kumar Singh, who emerged victorious as an independent candidate in 2022 and joined RSP recently. Singh polled 20,017 votes, while Nagendra Kumar Yadav of Nepali Congress secured 18,252 votes to finish second in the electoral race. Singh, who had won from the same constituency as a NC candidate in the 2017 polls, chose to contest as an independent after he was denied a party ticket.

Thapa is a national figure with minimal roots in Sarlahi-4, while Singh enjoys a strong support base because of his image as an anti-establishment leader. Also in the race are UML, NCP, JSP, and a number of independent candidates. In this contest, it remains to be seen whether Thapa’s image as a national figure will be able to overcome the issue of identity-based voting in Madhes. Thapa’s failure will be a disaster for his prime ministerial ambition, while Singh’s win will establish him as a giant-killer.

Rukum East

NCP Coordinator and former Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is contesting from Rukum East, a district he calls the ‘new headquarters’ of the party. He is challenged by a symbolic but very powerful contender in Sandeep Pun of the Pragatisheel Loktantrik Party, who is the son of a leading martyr of the Maoist insurgency.

Dahal’s decision to contest from Rukum East is his return to the revolutionary stronghold to ensure a smooth entry into the new parliament with waning support in the urban areas. However, Pun represents a section of the ‘Maoist base’ who feels betrayed by the leadership’s merger politics and corruption. Most importantly, there are reports that the UML has agreed to extend its tacit support to the candidates of Pragatisheel Loktantrik Party in this region to clip the wings of Dahal’s power.

Chitwan-3

Chitwan-3 features a high-stakes encounter between Renu Dahal, the former Mayor of Bharatpur Metropolitan City and daughter of NCP Coordinator Pushpa Kamal Dahal, and Sobita Gautam of the RSP. In 2022, Rastriya Prajatantra Party’s Bikram Pandey had won from here defeating then CPN (Maoist Center)’s Bhojraj Adhikari by 9,747 vote margins.

Dahal aims to reclaim her father’s legacy seat by showcasing her developmental achievements as Bharatpur Mayor. Meanwhile, Gautam, a rising star of the 2022 RSP wave, has moved constituencies to challenge the ‘first family’ of the NCP. This contest is a referendum on whether the ‘service delivery’ model of the Dahal family can withstand the RSP’s ‘new force’ narrative.

Kathmandu-4

Kathmandu-4 has become an open battlefield following Gagan Thapa’s departure. In 2022, Thapa won comfortably with 21,302 votes, while UML finished second with 13,855 votes. The 2022 results highlight why the seat is volatile. Although RSP did not field a direct candidate, it secured 9,412 proportional representation votes, indicating a strong appetite for change. NC received only 11,808 PR votes, suggesting much of its support was tied to Thapa’s personal appeal rather than party loyalty. The UML showed a similar gap, with 13,855 direct votes against 10,560 PR votes, while RPP posted a notable 6,881 PR votes.

Starting from a base of nearly 10,000 votes without an FPTP candidate last time, RSP sees a clear opening and has fielded Pukar Bam in the race. Congress candidate Sachin Timalsina is a new face, making a smooth transfer of Thapa’s vote bank uncertain. UML’s Rajan Bhattarai, contesting for the third time, faces an equally tough challenge as urban and GenZ voters increasingly question traditional party dominance. Bam, who has made his name for his civic activism, makes him a credible contender, positioning Kathmandu-4 as one of the clearest indicators of whether urban political change will translate into electoral victory.

Kathmandu-5

The constituency of Kathmandu-5 is witnessing a hot and crowded contest between NC General Secretary Pradeep Paudel, UML’s senior leader Ishwar Pokharel, RPP leader Kamal Thapa, and RSP’s Sashmit Pokharel. The constituency is a symbol of the larger struggle between reformism, communism, and royalism.

Pokharel seeks to reclaim the seat he lost in 2022, emphasizing his seniority and past ministerial record. Paudel, now a key figure in the Thapa-led NC, relies on his reputation as a clean, reformist leader. The entry of Thapa and Sashmit creates a four-way contest that makes the outcome highly unpredictable. This race will determine if the ‘youth wave’ that favored Paudel in 2022 has matured into a stable constituency or if the fragmented vote will allow the UML to return or the RSP’s Sashmit, who has worked with Balen Shah’s team in Kathmandu Metropolitan City.

Saptari-2

CK Raut, the chairperson of the Janamat Party, seeks to retain Saptari-2 after his historic defeat of Upendra Yadav in 2022. Raut secured 35,042 votes, while Yadav managed only 16,979. The landslide victory marked the arrival of Janamat as a serious political force. This constituency remains the focal point of the Madhes, where regional identity clashes with the Janamat Party’s ‘alternative’ development narrative. Raut faces a re-energized field as national parties like the UML and NC have prioritized this seat to curb the Janamat Party’s expansion. While Raut’s 2022 margin was massive, the 2026 contest involved a more fragmented Madhesi vote, with several ‘new forces’ attempting to slice into his youth base. Also, Raut’s Janamat Party in recent months has experienced a split. This time, he is facing JSP’s Umesh Kumar Yadav. The result will indicate whether Janamat’s success was a one-time wave or a lasting realignment.

Chitwan-2

Chitwan-2 is noteworthy as the least competitive and most politically significant seat. In 2022, the seat was won by Rabi Lamichhane with a landslide victory of 49,300 votes, leaving behind the candidates of the Nepali Congress and the UML. The same was repeated by Lamichhane in the by-elections of 2023, securing an even higher number of votes. In 2026, Lamichhane is up against relatively low-profile candidates of the traditional political parties. Unless there is a major swing in voter preference, Chitwan-2 is likely to be with the RSP party.

Sunsari-1

Sunsari-1 is turning out to be one of the most unpredictable contests in the eastern part of Nepal. In the 2022 election, JSP’s Ashok Rai won the seat with a narrow margin of only 453 votes, defeating RSP’s Goma Tamang, who received 16,606 votes. The same unpredictability has been witnessed in the 2026 election, but with a twist.

Harka Sampang, the former Mayor of Dharan Sub-metropolitan City who resigned to contest the general election, has formed the Shram Shakti Party. Contesting on the symbol of ‘two hands holding soil’, Sampang brings a unique, labor-oriented populism to Sunsari-1. Sampang’s campaign is characterized by its grassroots activism, including door-to-door cleaning drives and a focus on ‘soil and sweat’. He faces Samir Tamang of the RSP and candidates from the JSP, NC and UML, who are struggling to match his ‘stubborn’ local visibility. This battle will signal whether local, issue-based movements can transcend to the national legislative level.   

Tanahun–1

Tanahun-1 has turned out to be one of the most revealing constituencies in the country. In 2022, Nepali Congress leader Ram Chandra Paudel won this seat by securing 25,361 votes. The second position was taken by the UML party with 19,981 votes, and RSP was nowhere in the picture. However, in the 2023 by-election, it was RSP’s Swarnim Wagle who won by an overwhelming margin. This shows that there has been a tremendous shift in voters’ behavior. In 2026, Wagle will face Nepali Congress candidate Govinda Bhattarai, UML’s Bhagwati Neupane, and NCP candidate among others.

Gulmi-1

Gulmi-1 has emerged as one of the most unpredictable electoral arenas in the Lumbini province, as the traditional bipolar struggle between the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML is shattered by the entry of formidable new challengers.

In 2022, Chandra Bhandari secured a hard-fought victory against the UML’s Pradeep Gyawali. The 2026 battle is defined as a ‘four-way contest’. Gyawali seeks to reclaim his former seat by relying on a strong UML organizational base, while Bhandari faces the challenge of maintaining his vote. The dynamic is fundamentally altered by Sagar Dhakal (RSP), who previously gained national prominence for challenging Sher Bahadur Deuba in Dadheldhura, and Sudarshan Baral (NCP), a senior leader and former provincial minister representing the unified leftist front. This multi-cornered fight is a critical test of whether the ‘new wave’ can dismantle established strongholds in rural heartlands.

The socio-political genesis of the 2026 election

This catalyzing event for an early election was the widespread civil unrest that gripped Nepal in 8-9 Sept 2025. While this unrest was tipped by a government crackdown on social media platforms, there were simmering frustrations with corruption, economic stagnation, and the perceived arrogance of the ruling parties. Ultimately, this unrest resulted in a minimum of 76 deaths. The GenZ movement, with its decentralized and digital nature, effectively delegitimized the government of KP Sharma Oli and forced a constitutional reset. 

The appointment of Sushila Karki as interim Prime Minister was a stabilizing force that allowed for elections to be conducted while the traditional parties purged and merged themselves. The period between this uprising and the scheduled March 5 elections has been one of unprecedented political machinations. The Election Commission (EC) has finally verified a voter list of 18,903,689 voters for this 2026 cycle. While this represents a 5.09 percent increase from 2022, 1.1m voters represent a new voter turnout, primarily from the youth who spearheaded this GenZ movement.

The Election Commission (EC) has expedited the voter education program to raise voter awareness and reduce the number of invalid ballots ahead of the March 5 elections to the House of Representatives (HoR). 

The EC has created and circulated content through digital platforms, according to the EC. 

The EC has already approved the voter education related programs on February 2 for this purpose. 

The EC shared that volunteers would be mobilized to effectively disseminate messages on voter education.

A volunteer would be deputed at the ward level from the concerned Office of the Returning Officer. 

It is shared that the volunteers are going to be deputed in all 6743 wards of the country.

Child development facilitators, women health volunteers and community service centre operators would be appointed for voter education.

The EC has already signed the agreement with the state-owned media houses and regulatory body for the production of voter education content and effective mobilization. 

The District Election Office, Kathmandu, has objected to the use of social media and some online media outlets to violate voters' confidentiality.

The Election Office has drawn attention to all concerned on the need to comply with the election code of conduct and has requested not to violate voter confidentiality. 

As per Section 4 of the Election Code of Conduct, 2082, such acts are prohibited and if such acts are not stopped the process of action will be taken as per the prevailing law.

There is a provision that election campaigning can be carried out only 17 days before the polling day after the publication of the final list of candidates. 

It includes provisions for holding rallies, public meetings or corner meetings, publishing or broadcasting any kind of publicity material in the media, and conducting door-to-door programs for election publicity.

Although information has been provided through discussions, interactions, and publication of information on several occasions to ensure full compliance with this provision of the code of conduct, the Election Office has stated that some political parties, their representatives, and candidates have violated the provision.

The Election Office has drawn attention to the fact that information has been received that corner meetings, publicity, publishing and broadcasting propaganda material, and door-to-door programs are being used to influence voters before the scheduled time.

Code of Conduct Enforcement Officers Muktiram Rijal, Shivaram Bhattarai, Romakanta Kafle, Munkumar KC, Sunita Subedi and Rukmagat Aryal have jointly drawn attention to all aspects of the election code of conduct.

Nepal is currently steering toward a definitive realignment, characterized by the collapse of traditional partisan fealty and the emergence of a meritocratic mandate. The ‘GenZ Uprising’ and the subsequent dismantling of Sher Bahadur Deuba’s hegemony signify a profound repudiation of a legacy marred by administrative ineptitude and strategic stagnation. Deuba’s political career, alongside the populist rhetoric of KP Sharma Oli and the ideological volatility of Pushpa Kamal Dahal, serves as a cautionary tale of prioritizing personal survival over the foundational democratic and governance values. 

The ascension of Gagan Kumar Thapa signifies a profound generational shift toward results-oriented pragmatism, marking a departure from traditional ideological rigidity. To achieve a similar transformative impact, the communist led by former multiple time prime ministers of Khadka Prasad Sharma Oli and Puspa Kamal Dahal along with others must experience a comparable party avalanche akin to the recent restructuring of the Nepali Congress. However, the March 5 election faces the threat of ‘unholy alliances’ between the entrenched trio of Deuba, Oli, and Dahal, who seek to manipulate the democratic and governance values to preserve their waning influence. 

To counteract this, voters must demand a robust social contract that literalizes ‘Power to the People’ by securing water and energy as the non-negotiable bedrock of national security and economic development. They must critically analyze these recycled agendas and reject any coalition that views vital resources as elective luxuries. This election is a strategic imperative for Nepali citizens to purge the political landscape of institutionalized corruption and to establish a capable governance model of fostering genuine economic dynamism and national sovereignty.

The River Basin Plan 2024

The Water and Energy Commission (WEC) of the Government of Nepal successfully brought to the River Basin Plan 2024 represents a seminal shift in Nepal’s geoeconomic strategy, offering a sophisticated framework for hydrological, terrestrial resource governance and flood control. Rooted principles of  the Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM), the blueprint advocates for a decentralized, multi-scalar river basin governance model across ten major river basins like the Gandaki, Bagmati, Karnali and Koshi. 

By prioritizing multipurpose projects, the plan seeks to harmonize hydroelectric generation, perennial irrigation, and ecological preservation, positioning water security as the primary catalyst for domestic production and a vital antidote to the chronic ‘brain drain’ of overseas migration. However, a critical disconnect persists between this technocratic roadmap and the prevailing orthodox political landscape. Despite the immense potential of fertile, sequestered river valleys such as the Dordhi and Rapti to foster niche agricultural entrepreneurship, these regions remain marginalized by systemic corruption and populist rhetoric. 

Leadership under figures of Puspa Kamal Dahal, Khadka Prasad Sharma Oli and Sher Bahadur Deuba including other incapable former prime ministers have historically substituted substantive policy with strategic stagnation, leaving the nation burdened by debt and governance ineptitude. Established political entities, including the Nepali Congress and various communist blocs, continue to treat energy and water as peripheral commodities rather than the fundamental pillars of economic sovereignty. Ultimately, the active  river basin plans of the WEC success hinges on whether Nepali voters can compel the political class to move beyond ‘recycled dreams’ and embrace this roadmap as a non-negotiable imperative for national resilience.

Imperative of water and energy

Water and power are the fundamental catalysts required to reanimate Nepal’s stagnant economy. As stakeholders in the democratic process, voters must scrutinize party manifestos for concrete economic agendas regarding the water and energy sector. The River Basin Plan of the WEC 2024 provides a comprehensive blueprint for unlocking natural resource potential to catalyze economic transformation. Therefore, voter support must be directed toward candidates who offer pragmatic, realistic policy commitments prioritizing the needs of the populace who have been neglected for over three decades. To date, neither the Nepali Congress nor the various splintered communist factions have demonstrated a serious commitment to converting these resources into genuine economic endeavors.

Economic Implications of the River Basin Plan 2024

The implementation of multipurpose projects at local, provincial, and national levels across the identified river basins offer profound economic opportunities. These projects serve a strategic function: transferring water to agricultural command areas, enhancing environmental services, revitalizing rural and urban economic partnerships by increasing productivity, advancing industrial and ecological balance. Sufficient water infrastructure supports productivity across all social, economic and environmental sectors. 

The River Basin Plan of 2024  projects a capital requirement of $8.8bn for investment and operations, which is estimated to yield $15.7bn in total benefits. Under the strategic river basin plan framework: the Economic Net Present Value is projected to increase from Rs 1,151bn to Rs 1,221bn. Beyond these metrics, integrated water and power projects act as a multiplier for job creation and ‘real sector’ growth, directly elevating household incomes and human development indices, ultimately expanding GDP over $100bn with over $5000 per capita income.

The institutional failures of the power sector

Nepal’s power sector is currently stifled by the structural inefficiencies and monopolistic stagnation of the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA). Despite extensive government support, the NEA’s gross failure to ensure reliable delivery has forced enterprises into costly diesel-reliance, compromising national economic dynamism. This institutional paralysis is exacerbated by a leadership culture that prioritizes the performative optics of energy exportation and populist media narratives over domestic infrastructure and household energy promotion. 

Furthermore, the NEA exerts a ‘feudal’ dominance over independent power developers, frequently defaulting on grid-connection commitments and imposing restrictive Power Purchase Agreements and power generation to existing projects that jeopardize the sustainability of power projects. Such autocratic behavior necessitates an immediate transition toward an unbundled, decentralized market structure. 

To unlock Nepal’s hydroelectric potential, the upcoming  election must prioritize the establishment of a robust, independent regulatory body capable of enforcing accountability and dismantling entrenched political patronage. The professionalization of energy governance replacing administrative lethargy with meritocratic leadership is the only viable pathway to securing economic sovereignty. By curbing the NEA’s absolute market dominance, Nepal can foster a competitive environment that transforms electricity from a neglected luxury into the fundamental bedrock of industrial prosperity.